Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A southerly shift in winds across the Southern Plains will result in a return to warmer and dryer conditions, but weak surface winds and generally unreceptive fuels will limit the overall fire-weather threat. ..Halbert.. 02/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A southerly shift in winds across the Southern Plains will result in a return to warmer and dryer conditions, but weak surface winds and generally unreceptive fuels will limit the overall fire-weather threat. ..Halbert.. 02/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A southerly shift in winds across the Southern Plains will result in a return to warmer and dryer conditions, but weak surface winds and generally unreceptive fuels will limit the overall fire-weather threat. ..Halbert.. 02/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A southerly shift in winds across the Southern Plains will result in a return to warmer and dryer conditions, but weak surface winds and generally unreceptive fuels will limit the overall fire-weather threat. ..Halbert.. 02/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A southerly shift in winds across the Southern Plains will result in a return to warmer and dryer conditions, but weak surface winds and generally unreceptive fuels will limit the overall fire-weather threat. ..Halbert.. 02/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...Discussion... High pressure will remain situated over the majority of the CONUS through tonight, with any appreciable low-level moisture well offshore into the western Gulf. While a shortwave trough will move across AZ and NM tonight, loss of heating should minimize lapse rates and instability there. ..Jewell.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...Discussion... High pressure will remain situated over the majority of the CONUS through tonight, with any appreciable low-level moisture well offshore into the western Gulf. While a shortwave trough will move across AZ and NM tonight, loss of heating should minimize lapse rates and instability there. ..Jewell.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...Discussion... High pressure will remain situated over the majority of the CONUS through tonight, with any appreciable low-level moisture well offshore into the western Gulf. While a shortwave trough will move across AZ and NM tonight, loss of heating should minimize lapse rates and instability there. ..Jewell.. 02/22/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 21 22:04:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 21 22:04:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance suggests that the upper-level synoptic regime will become characterized by persistent upper ridging across the northeastern Pacific/western U.S. with northwesterly flow across the eastern two-thirds of the country through next week. Low-amplitude upper disturbances embedded within the mean flow will support scattered rain/snow chances to parts of the country along with breezy conditions in the wake of any attendant surface lows/cold fronts. Both the deterministic ECMWF and GFS (and their respective ensemble families) suggest windy conditions (winds near/above 20 mph) are likely across the central to northern High Plains in the wake of such fronts during the D4/Mon to D6/Wed time frame. Although the northwesterly downslope flow regime will promote above-normal temperatures, the combination of light rain/snow chances and the presence of an established snow pack across much of the region should limit fire concerns. This synoptic regime is typically conducive for persistent dry conditions across the Southwest/Four Corners/Southern High Plains, which is supported by recent ensemble QPF probabilities (or lack thereof). While the potential for strong winds is lower, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions should support slowly drying fuels through the extended period. Some fire concerns may emerge across NM/west TX if a sufficiently strong upper disturbance can support a low-level mass response robust enough to support winds near critical thresholds, but confidence in this potential is low. ..Moore.. 02/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance suggests that the upper-level synoptic regime will become characterized by persistent upper ridging across the northeastern Pacific/western U.S. with northwesterly flow across the eastern two-thirds of the country through next week. Low-amplitude upper disturbances embedded within the mean flow will support scattered rain/snow chances to parts of the country along with breezy conditions in the wake of any attendant surface lows/cold fronts. Both the deterministic ECMWF and GFS (and their respective ensemble families) suggest windy conditions (winds near/above 20 mph) are likely across the central to northern High Plains in the wake of such fronts during the D4/Mon to D6/Wed time frame. Although the northwesterly downslope flow regime will promote above-normal temperatures, the combination of light rain/snow chances and the presence of an established snow pack across much of the region should limit fire concerns. This synoptic regime is typically conducive for persistent dry conditions across the Southwest/Four Corners/Southern High Plains, which is supported by recent ensemble QPF probabilities (or lack thereof). While the potential for strong winds is lower, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions should support slowly drying fuels through the extended period. Some fire concerns may emerge across NM/west TX if a sufficiently strong upper disturbance can support a low-level mass response robust enough to support winds near critical thresholds, but confidence in this potential is low. ..Moore.. 02/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance suggests that the upper-level synoptic regime will become characterized by persistent upper ridging across the northeastern Pacific/western U.S. with northwesterly flow across the eastern two-thirds of the country through next week. Low-amplitude upper disturbances embedded within the mean flow will support scattered rain/snow chances to parts of the country along with breezy conditions in the wake of any attendant surface lows/cold fronts. Both the deterministic ECMWF and GFS (and their respective ensemble families) suggest windy conditions (winds near/above 20 mph) are likely across the central to northern High Plains in the wake of such fronts during the D4/Mon to D6/Wed time frame. Although the northwesterly downslope flow regime will promote above-normal temperatures, the combination of light rain/snow chances and the presence of an established snow pack across much of the region should limit fire concerns. This synoptic regime is typically conducive for persistent dry conditions across the Southwest/Four Corners/Southern High Plains, which is supported by recent ensemble QPF probabilities (or lack thereof). While the potential for strong winds is lower, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions should support slowly drying fuels through the extended period. Some fire concerns may emerge across NM/west TX if a sufficiently strong upper disturbance can support a low-level mass response robust enough to support winds near critical thresholds, but confidence in this potential is low. ..Moore.. 02/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance suggests that the upper-level synoptic regime will become characterized by persistent upper ridging across the northeastern Pacific/western U.S. with northwesterly flow across the eastern two-thirds of the country through next week. Low-amplitude upper disturbances embedded within the mean flow will support scattered rain/snow chances to parts of the country along with breezy conditions in the wake of any attendant surface lows/cold fronts. Both the deterministic ECMWF and GFS (and their respective ensemble families) suggest windy conditions (winds near/above 20 mph) are likely across the central to northern High Plains in the wake of such fronts during the D4/Mon to D6/Wed time frame. Although the northwesterly downslope flow regime will promote above-normal temperatures, the combination of light rain/snow chances and the presence of an established snow pack across much of the region should limit fire concerns. This synoptic regime is typically conducive for persistent dry conditions across the Southwest/Four Corners/Southern High Plains, which is supported by recent ensemble QPF probabilities (or lack thereof). While the potential for strong winds is lower, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions should support slowly drying fuels through the extended period. Some fire concerns may emerge across NM/west TX if a sufficiently strong upper disturbance can support a low-level mass response robust enough to support winds near critical thresholds, but confidence in this potential is low. ..Moore.. 02/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance suggests that the upper-level synoptic regime will become characterized by persistent upper ridging across the northeastern Pacific/western U.S. with northwesterly flow across the eastern two-thirds of the country through next week. Low-amplitude upper disturbances embedded within the mean flow will support scattered rain/snow chances to parts of the country along with breezy conditions in the wake of any attendant surface lows/cold fronts. Both the deterministic ECMWF and GFS (and their respective ensemble families) suggest windy conditions (winds near/above 20 mph) are likely across the central to northern High Plains in the wake of such fronts during the D4/Mon to D6/Wed time frame. Although the northwesterly downslope flow regime will promote above-normal temperatures, the combination of light rain/snow chances and the presence of an established snow pack across much of the region should limit fire concerns. This synoptic regime is typically conducive for persistent dry conditions across the Southwest/Four Corners/Southern High Plains, which is supported by recent ensemble QPF probabilities (or lack thereof). While the potential for strong winds is lower, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions should support slowly drying fuels through the extended period. Some fire concerns may emerge across NM/west TX if a sufficiently strong upper disturbance can support a low-level mass response robust enough to support winds near critical thresholds, but confidence in this potential is low. ..Moore.. 02/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears very low across the U.S. today through tonight. ...20Z Update... A small cluster of elevated convection developed earlier today across the Brush Country region of south TX, with sporadic lightning flashes noted. This elevated convection was apparently driven by sufficient ascent/moistening near the base of the EML noted on the 12Z CRP sounding, and aided by a weak midlevel shortwave trough moving across the region. This activity has weakened early this afternoon, and with little signal for substantial redevelopment, no general thunderstorm area has been introduced. However, very sporadic/isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out within this regime through the remainder of the afternoon, from parts of south-central TX to the middle TX coast. ..Dean.. 02/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/ An expansive surface ridge and dry/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity across the CONUS this period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears very low across the U.S. today through tonight. ...20Z Update... A small cluster of elevated convection developed earlier today across the Brush Country region of south TX, with sporadic lightning flashes noted. This elevated convection was apparently driven by sufficient ascent/moistening near the base of the EML noted on the 12Z CRP sounding, and aided by a weak midlevel shortwave trough moving across the region. This activity has weakened early this afternoon, and with little signal for substantial redevelopment, no general thunderstorm area has been introduced. However, very sporadic/isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out within this regime through the remainder of the afternoon, from parts of south-central TX to the middle TX coast. ..Dean.. 02/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/ An expansive surface ridge and dry/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity across the CONUS this period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears very low across the U.S. today through tonight. ...20Z Update... A small cluster of elevated convection developed earlier today across the Brush Country region of south TX, with sporadic lightning flashes noted. This elevated convection was apparently driven by sufficient ascent/moistening near the base of the EML noted on the 12Z CRP sounding, and aided by a weak midlevel shortwave trough moving across the region. This activity has weakened early this afternoon, and with little signal for substantial redevelopment, no general thunderstorm area has been introduced. However, very sporadic/isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out within this regime through the remainder of the afternoon, from parts of south-central TX to the middle TX coast. ..Dean.. 02/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/ An expansive surface ridge and dry/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity across the CONUS this period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears very low across the U.S. today through tonight. ...20Z Update... A small cluster of elevated convection developed earlier today across the Brush Country region of south TX, with sporadic lightning flashes noted. This elevated convection was apparently driven by sufficient ascent/moistening near the base of the EML noted on the 12Z CRP sounding, and aided by a weak midlevel shortwave trough moving across the region. This activity has weakened early this afternoon, and with little signal for substantial redevelopment, no general thunderstorm area has been introduced. However, very sporadic/isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out within this regime through the remainder of the afternoon, from parts of south-central TX to the middle TX coast. ..Dean.. 02/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/ An expansive surface ridge and dry/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity across the CONUS this period. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are still forecast across portions of southern Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas on Sunday. No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis... A split upper-flow regime will overspread the CONUS on Sunday, with a pronounced mid-level trough poised to traverse the U.S./Canada border as a smaller mid-level impulse progresses along the Gulf Coast. A statically stable airmass will be in place over most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. Scant elevated buoyancy will accompany the Gulf Coast trough, mainly over southern LA and immediate surrounding areas. Isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms are expected to be in progress at the start of the period (12Z Sunday), and may continue into the afternoon, until the elevated buoyancy is shunted offshore. ..Squitieri.. 02/21/2025 Read more