Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Eastern extent of Elevated highlights in portions of eastern New Mexico and the far western Texas Panhandle was trimmed slightly back to the west. This is to account for recent precipitation and considerably higher relative humidity, which should continue to overspread far eastern New Mexico from portions northwestern Texas through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Eastern extent of Elevated highlights in portions of eastern New Mexico and the far western Texas Panhandle was trimmed slightly back to the west. This is to account for recent precipitation and considerably higher relative humidity, which should continue to overspread far eastern New Mexico from portions northwestern Texas through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Eastern extent of Elevated highlights in portions of eastern New Mexico and the far western Texas Panhandle was trimmed slightly back to the west. This is to account for recent precipitation and considerably higher relative humidity, which should continue to overspread far eastern New Mexico from portions northwestern Texas through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Eastern extent of Elevated highlights in portions of eastern New Mexico and the far western Texas Panhandle was trimmed slightly back to the west. This is to account for recent precipitation and considerably higher relative humidity, which should continue to overspread far eastern New Mexico from portions northwestern Texas through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Eastern extent of Elevated highlights in portions of eastern New Mexico and the far western Texas Panhandle was trimmed slightly back to the west. This is to account for recent precipitation and considerably higher relative humidity, which should continue to overspread far eastern New Mexico from portions northwestern Texas through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Eastern extent of Elevated highlights in portions of eastern New Mexico and the far western Texas Panhandle was trimmed slightly back to the west. This is to account for recent precipitation and considerably higher relative humidity, which should continue to overspread far eastern New Mexico from portions northwestern Texas through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Eastern extent of Elevated highlights in portions of eastern New Mexico and the far western Texas Panhandle was trimmed slightly back to the west. This is to account for recent precipitation and considerably higher relative humidity, which should continue to overspread far eastern New Mexico from portions northwestern Texas through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Eastern extent of Elevated highlights in portions of eastern New Mexico and the far western Texas Panhandle was trimmed slightly back to the west. This is to account for recent precipitation and considerably higher relative humidity, which should continue to overspread far eastern New Mexico from portions northwestern Texas through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the ArkLaTex across the Mid-South into Middle Tennessee. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... With a prominent upper trough over the West, strong southwesterly winds aloft will overlie areas along/north of a frontal zone extending from the middle part of Texas into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South, east-northeastward to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain somewhat nebulous near the front and southward into the warm sector, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. A notable diurnal strengthening of the low-level jet /45-55 kt/ is expected today across the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where it will impinge on the west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented effective front. This is concerning regarding supercell tornado potential later today, some of which could be strong (EF2+) given the magnitudes of the deep-layer/low-level shear and moisture-rich environment with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70F. That said, some modal/mesoscale uncertainties still persist as to warm-sector development and the coverage and longevity of surface-based supercells, with convection potentially tending to be more prevalent/likely just north of the effective front. Otherwise, large to very large hail will be a threat with the expected supercellular development along/north of the front, with upscale-growing clusters posing a damaging wind threat as well. ...West-central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma late tonight... Elevated supercells are expected to again develop late tonight (after midnight CDT) and early Friday as forcing for ascent increases to the north of the surface front. These storms will pose a large hail threat, and possibly some severe-wind potential as well, particularly if elevated bow echo development occurs as storms spread northeastward within a highly sheared environment. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva... Remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries will serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. While some details remain uncertain, any storms that develop along/south of the front could pose risks for hail and damaging winds. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the ArkLaTex across the Mid-South into Middle Tennessee. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... With a prominent upper trough over the West, strong southwesterly winds aloft will overlie areas along/north of a frontal zone extending from the middle part of Texas into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South, east-northeastward to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain somewhat nebulous near the front and southward into the warm sector, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. A notable diurnal strengthening of the low-level jet /45-55 kt/ is expected today across the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where it will impinge on the west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented effective front. This is concerning regarding supercell tornado potential later today, some of which could be strong (EF2+) given the magnitudes of the deep-layer/low-level shear and moisture-rich environment with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70F. That said, some modal/mesoscale uncertainties still persist as to warm-sector development and the coverage and longevity of surface-based supercells, with convection potentially tending to be more prevalent/likely just north of the effective front. Otherwise, large to very large hail will be a threat with the expected supercellular development along/north of the front, with upscale-growing clusters posing a damaging wind threat as well. ...West-central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma late tonight... Elevated supercells are expected to again develop late tonight (after midnight CDT) and early Friday as forcing for ascent increases to the north of the surface front. These storms will pose a large hail threat, and possibly some severe-wind potential as well, particularly if elevated bow echo development occurs as storms spread northeastward within a highly sheared environment. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva... Remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries will serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. While some details remain uncertain, any storms that develop along/south of the front could pose risks for hail and damaging winds. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the ArkLaTex across the Mid-South into Middle Tennessee. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... With a prominent upper trough over the West, strong southwesterly winds aloft will overlie areas along/north of a frontal zone extending from the middle part of Texas into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South, east-northeastward to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain somewhat nebulous near the front and southward into the warm sector, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. A notable diurnal strengthening of the low-level jet /45-55 kt/ is expected today across the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where it will impinge on the west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented effective front. This is concerning regarding supercell tornado potential later today, some of which could be strong (EF2+) given the magnitudes of the deep-layer/low-level shear and moisture-rich environment with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70F. That said, some modal/mesoscale uncertainties still persist as to warm-sector development and the coverage and longevity of surface-based supercells, with convection potentially tending to be more prevalent/likely just north of the effective front. Otherwise, large to very large hail will be a threat with the expected supercellular development along/north of the front, with upscale-growing clusters posing a damaging wind threat as well. ...West-central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma late tonight... Elevated supercells are expected to again develop late tonight (after midnight CDT) and early Friday as forcing for ascent increases to the north of the surface front. These storms will pose a large hail threat, and possibly some severe-wind potential as well, particularly if elevated bow echo development occurs as storms spread northeastward within a highly sheared environment. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva... Remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries will serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. While some details remain uncertain, any storms that develop along/south of the front could pose risks for hail and damaging winds. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the ArkLaTex across the Mid-South into Middle Tennessee. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... With a prominent upper trough over the West, strong southwesterly winds aloft will overlie areas along/north of a frontal zone extending from the middle part of Texas into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South, east-northeastward to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain somewhat nebulous near the front and southward into the warm sector, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. A notable diurnal strengthening of the low-level jet /45-55 kt/ is expected today across the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where it will impinge on the west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented effective front. This is concerning regarding supercell tornado potential later today, some of which could be strong (EF2+) given the magnitudes of the deep-layer/low-level shear and moisture-rich environment with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70F. That said, some modal/mesoscale uncertainties still persist as to warm-sector development and the coverage and longevity of surface-based supercells, with convection potentially tending to be more prevalent/likely just north of the effective front. Otherwise, large to very large hail will be a threat with the expected supercellular development along/north of the front, with upscale-growing clusters posing a damaging wind threat as well. ...West-central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma late tonight... Elevated supercells are expected to again develop late tonight (after midnight CDT) and early Friday as forcing for ascent increases to the north of the surface front. These storms will pose a large hail threat, and possibly some severe-wind potential as well, particularly if elevated bow echo development occurs as storms spread northeastward within a highly sheared environment. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva... Remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries will serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. While some details remain uncertain, any storms that develop along/south of the front could pose risks for hail and damaging winds. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the ArkLaTex across the Mid-South into Middle Tennessee. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... With a prominent upper trough over the West, strong southwesterly winds aloft will overlie areas along/north of a frontal zone extending from the middle part of Texas into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South, east-northeastward to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain somewhat nebulous near the front and southward into the warm sector, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. A notable diurnal strengthening of the low-level jet /45-55 kt/ is expected today across the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where it will impinge on the west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented effective front. This is concerning regarding supercell tornado potential later today, some of which could be strong (EF2+) given the magnitudes of the deep-layer/low-level shear and moisture-rich environment with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70F. That said, some modal/mesoscale uncertainties still persist as to warm-sector development and the coverage and longevity of surface-based supercells, with convection potentially tending to be more prevalent/likely just north of the effective front. Otherwise, large to very large hail will be a threat with the expected supercellular development along/north of the front, with upscale-growing clusters posing a damaging wind threat as well. ...West-central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma late tonight... Elevated supercells are expected to again develop late tonight (after midnight CDT) and early Friday as forcing for ascent increases to the north of the surface front. These storms will pose a large hail threat, and possibly some severe-wind potential as well, particularly if elevated bow echo development occurs as storms spread northeastward within a highly sheared environment. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva... Remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries will serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. While some details remain uncertain, any storms that develop along/south of the front could pose risks for hail and damaging winds. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the ArkLaTex across the Mid-South into Middle Tennessee. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... With a prominent upper trough over the West, strong southwesterly winds aloft will overlie areas along/north of a frontal zone extending from the middle part of Texas into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South, east-northeastward to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain somewhat nebulous near the front and southward into the warm sector, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. A notable diurnal strengthening of the low-level jet /45-55 kt/ is expected today across the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where it will impinge on the west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented effective front. This is concerning regarding supercell tornado potential later today, some of which could be strong (EF2+) given the magnitudes of the deep-layer/low-level shear and moisture-rich environment with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70F. That said, some modal/mesoscale uncertainties still persist as to warm-sector development and the coverage and longevity of surface-based supercells, with convection potentially tending to be more prevalent/likely just north of the effective front. Otherwise, large to very large hail will be a threat with the expected supercellular development along/north of the front, with upscale-growing clusters posing a damaging wind threat as well. ...West-central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma late tonight... Elevated supercells are expected to again develop late tonight (after midnight CDT) and early Friday as forcing for ascent increases to the north of the surface front. These storms will pose a large hail threat, and possibly some severe-wind potential as well, particularly if elevated bow echo development occurs as storms spread northeastward within a highly sheared environment. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva... Remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries will serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. While some details remain uncertain, any storms that develop along/south of the front could pose risks for hail and damaging winds. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the ArkLaTex across the Mid-South into Middle Tennessee. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... With a prominent upper trough over the West, strong southwesterly winds aloft will overlie areas along/north of a frontal zone extending from the middle part of Texas into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South, east-northeastward to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain somewhat nebulous near the front and southward into the warm sector, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. A notable diurnal strengthening of the low-level jet /45-55 kt/ is expected today across the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where it will impinge on the west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented effective front. This is concerning regarding supercell tornado potential later today, some of which could be strong (EF2+) given the magnitudes of the deep-layer/low-level shear and moisture-rich environment with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70F. That said, some modal/mesoscale uncertainties still persist as to warm-sector development and the coverage and longevity of surface-based supercells, with convection potentially tending to be more prevalent/likely just north of the effective front. Otherwise, large to very large hail will be a threat with the expected supercellular development along/north of the front, with upscale-growing clusters posing a damaging wind threat as well. ...West-central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma late tonight... Elevated supercells are expected to again develop late tonight (after midnight CDT) and early Friday as forcing for ascent increases to the north of the surface front. These storms will pose a large hail threat, and possibly some severe-wind potential as well, particularly if elevated bow echo development occurs as storms spread northeastward within a highly sheared environment. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva... Remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries will serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. While some details remain uncertain, any storms that develop along/south of the front could pose risks for hail and damaging winds. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the ArkLaTex across the Mid-South into Middle Tennessee. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... With a prominent upper trough over the West, strong southwesterly winds aloft will overlie areas along/north of a frontal zone extending from the middle part of Texas into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South, east-northeastward to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain somewhat nebulous near the front and southward into the warm sector, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. A notable diurnal strengthening of the low-level jet /45-55 kt/ is expected today across the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where it will impinge on the west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented effective front. This is concerning regarding supercell tornado potential later today, some of which could be strong (EF2+) given the magnitudes of the deep-layer/low-level shear and moisture-rich environment with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70F. That said, some modal/mesoscale uncertainties still persist as to warm-sector development and the coverage and longevity of surface-based supercells, with convection potentially tending to be more prevalent/likely just north of the effective front. Otherwise, large to very large hail will be a threat with the expected supercellular development along/north of the front, with upscale-growing clusters posing a damaging wind threat as well. ...West-central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma late tonight... Elevated supercells are expected to again develop late tonight (after midnight CDT) and early Friday as forcing for ascent increases to the north of the surface front. These storms will pose a large hail threat, and possibly some severe-wind potential as well, particularly if elevated bow echo development occurs as storms spread northeastward within a highly sheared environment. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva... Remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries will serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. While some details remain uncertain, any storms that develop along/south of the front could pose risks for hail and damaging winds. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the ArkLaTex across the Mid-South into Middle Tennessee. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... With a prominent upper trough over the West, strong southwesterly winds aloft will overlie areas along/north of a frontal zone extending from the middle part of Texas into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South, east-northeastward to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain somewhat nebulous near the front and southward into the warm sector, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. A notable diurnal strengthening of the low-level jet /45-55 kt/ is expected today across the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where it will impinge on the west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented effective front. This is concerning regarding supercell tornado potential later today, some of which could be strong (EF2+) given the magnitudes of the deep-layer/low-level shear and moisture-rich environment with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70F. That said, some modal/mesoscale uncertainties still persist as to warm-sector development and the coverage and longevity of surface-based supercells, with convection potentially tending to be more prevalent/likely just north of the effective front. Otherwise, large to very large hail will be a threat with the expected supercellular development along/north of the front, with upscale-growing clusters posing a damaging wind threat as well. ...West-central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma late tonight... Elevated supercells are expected to again develop late tonight (after midnight CDT) and early Friday as forcing for ascent increases to the north of the surface front. These storms will pose a large hail threat, and possibly some severe-wind potential as well, particularly if elevated bow echo development occurs as storms spread northeastward within a highly sheared environment. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva... Remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries will serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. While some details remain uncertain, any storms that develop along/south of the front could pose risks for hail and damaging winds. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the ArkLaTex across the Mid-South into Middle Tennessee. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... With a prominent upper trough over the West, strong southwesterly winds aloft will overlie areas along/north of a frontal zone extending from the middle part of Texas into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South, east-northeastward to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain somewhat nebulous near the front and southward into the warm sector, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. A notable diurnal strengthening of the low-level jet /45-55 kt/ is expected today across the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where it will impinge on the west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented effective front. This is concerning regarding supercell tornado potential later today, some of which could be strong (EF2+) given the magnitudes of the deep-layer/low-level shear and moisture-rich environment with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70F. That said, some modal/mesoscale uncertainties still persist as to warm-sector development and the coverage and longevity of surface-based supercells, with convection potentially tending to be more prevalent/likely just north of the effective front. Otherwise, large to very large hail will be a threat with the expected supercellular development along/north of the front, with upscale-growing clusters posing a damaging wind threat as well. ...West-central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma late tonight... Elevated supercells are expected to again develop late tonight (after midnight CDT) and early Friday as forcing for ascent increases to the north of the surface front. These storms will pose a large hail threat, and possibly some severe-wind potential as well, particularly if elevated bow echo development occurs as storms spread northeastward within a highly sheared environment. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva... Remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries will serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. While some details remain uncertain, any storms that develop along/south of the front could pose risks for hail and damaging winds. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the ArkLaTex across the Mid-South into Middle Tennessee. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... With a prominent upper trough over the West, strong southwesterly winds aloft will overlie areas along/north of a frontal zone extending from the middle part of Texas into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South, east-northeastward to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain somewhat nebulous near the front and southward into the warm sector, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. A notable diurnal strengthening of the low-level jet /45-55 kt/ is expected today across the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where it will impinge on the west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented effective front. This is concerning regarding supercell tornado potential later today, some of which could be strong (EF2+) given the magnitudes of the deep-layer/low-level shear and moisture-rich environment with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70F. That said, some modal/mesoscale uncertainties still persist as to warm-sector development and the coverage and longevity of surface-based supercells, with convection potentially tending to be more prevalent/likely just north of the effective front. Otherwise, large to very large hail will be a threat with the expected supercellular development along/north of the front, with upscale-growing clusters posing a damaging wind threat as well. ...West-central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma late tonight... Elevated supercells are expected to again develop late tonight (after midnight CDT) and early Friday as forcing for ascent increases to the north of the surface front. These storms will pose a large hail threat, and possibly some severe-wind potential as well, particularly if elevated bow echo development occurs as storms spread northeastward within a highly sheared environment. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva... Remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries will serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. While some details remain uncertain, any storms that develop along/south of the front could pose risks for hail and damaging winds. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the ArkLaTex across the Mid-South into Middle Tennessee. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... With a prominent upper trough over the West, strong southwesterly winds aloft will overlie areas along/north of a frontal zone extending from the middle part of Texas into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South, east-northeastward to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain somewhat nebulous near the front and southward into the warm sector, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. A notable diurnal strengthening of the low-level jet /45-55 kt/ is expected today across the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where it will impinge on the west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented effective front. This is concerning regarding supercell tornado potential later today, some of which could be strong (EF2+) given the magnitudes of the deep-layer/low-level shear and moisture-rich environment with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70F. That said, some modal/mesoscale uncertainties still persist as to warm-sector development and the coverage and longevity of surface-based supercells, with convection potentially tending to be more prevalent/likely just north of the effective front. Otherwise, large to very large hail will be a threat with the expected supercellular development along/north of the front, with upscale-growing clusters posing a damaging wind threat as well. ...West-central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma late tonight... Elevated supercells are expected to again develop late tonight (after midnight CDT) and early Friday as forcing for ascent increases to the north of the surface front. These storms will pose a large hail threat, and possibly some severe-wind potential as well, particularly if elevated bow echo development occurs as storms spread northeastward within a highly sheared environment. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva... Remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries will serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. While some details remain uncertain, any storms that develop along/south of the front could pose risks for hail and damaging winds. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 04/03/2025 Read more