Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the ArkLaTex across the Mid-South into Middle Tennessee. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... With a prominent upper trough over the West, strong southwesterly winds aloft will overlie areas along/north of a frontal zone extending from the middle part of Texas into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South, east-northeastward to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain somewhat nebulous near the front and southward into the warm sector, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. A notable diurnal strengthening of the low-level jet /45-55 kt/ is expected today across the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where it will impinge on the west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented effective front. This is concerning regarding supercell tornado potential later today, some of which could be strong (EF2+) given the magnitudes of the deep-layer/low-level shear and moisture-rich environment with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70F. That said, some modal/mesoscale uncertainties still persist as to warm-sector development and the coverage and longevity of surface-based supercells, with convection potentially tending to be more prevalent/likely just north of the effective front. Otherwise, large to very large hail will be a threat with the expected supercellular development along/north of the front, with upscale-growing clusters posing a damaging wind threat as well. ...West-central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma late tonight... Elevated supercells are expected to again develop late tonight (after midnight CDT) and early Friday as forcing for ascent increases to the north of the surface front. These storms will pose a large hail threat, and possibly some severe-wind potential as well, particularly if elevated bow echo development occurs as storms spread northeastward within a highly sheared environment. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva... Remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries will serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. While some details remain uncertain, any storms that develop along/south of the front could pose risks for hail and damaging winds. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the ArkLaTex across the Mid-South into Middle Tennessee. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... With a prominent upper trough over the West, strong southwesterly winds aloft will overlie areas along/north of a frontal zone extending from the middle part of Texas into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South, east-northeastward to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain somewhat nebulous near the front and southward into the warm sector, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. A notable diurnal strengthening of the low-level jet /45-55 kt/ is expected today across the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where it will impinge on the west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented effective front. This is concerning regarding supercell tornado potential later today, some of which could be strong (EF2+) given the magnitudes of the deep-layer/low-level shear and moisture-rich environment with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70F. That said, some modal/mesoscale uncertainties still persist as to warm-sector development and the coverage and longevity of surface-based supercells, with convection potentially tending to be more prevalent/likely just north of the effective front. Otherwise, large to very large hail will be a threat with the expected supercellular development along/north of the front, with upscale-growing clusters posing a damaging wind threat as well. ...West-central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma late tonight... Elevated supercells are expected to again develop late tonight (after midnight CDT) and early Friday as forcing for ascent increases to the north of the surface front. These storms will pose a large hail threat, and possibly some severe-wind potential as well, particularly if elevated bow echo development occurs as storms spread northeastward within a highly sheared environment. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva... Remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries will serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. While some details remain uncertain, any storms that develop along/south of the front could pose risks for hail and damaging winds. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the ArkLaTex across the Mid-South into Middle Tennessee. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... With a prominent upper trough over the West, strong southwesterly winds aloft will overlie areas along/north of a frontal zone extending from the middle part of Texas into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South, east-northeastward to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain somewhat nebulous near the front and southward into the warm sector, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. A notable diurnal strengthening of the low-level jet /45-55 kt/ is expected today across the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where it will impinge on the west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented effective front. This is concerning regarding supercell tornado potential later today, some of which could be strong (EF2+) given the magnitudes of the deep-layer/low-level shear and moisture-rich environment with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70F. That said, some modal/mesoscale uncertainties still persist as to warm-sector development and the coverage and longevity of surface-based supercells, with convection potentially tending to be more prevalent/likely just north of the effective front. Otherwise, large to very large hail will be a threat with the expected supercellular development along/north of the front, with upscale-growing clusters posing a damaging wind threat as well. ...West-central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma late tonight... Elevated supercells are expected to again develop late tonight (after midnight CDT) and early Friday as forcing for ascent increases to the north of the surface front. These storms will pose a large hail threat, and possibly some severe-wind potential as well, particularly if elevated bow echo development occurs as storms spread northeastward within a highly sheared environment. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva... Remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries will serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. While some details remain uncertain, any storms that develop along/south of the front could pose risks for hail and damaging winds. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the ArkLaTex across the Mid-South into Middle Tennessee. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... With a prominent upper trough over the West, strong southwesterly winds aloft will overlie areas along/north of a frontal zone extending from the middle part of Texas into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South, east-northeastward to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain somewhat nebulous near the front and southward into the warm sector, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. A notable diurnal strengthening of the low-level jet /45-55 kt/ is expected today across the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where it will impinge on the west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented effective front. This is concerning regarding supercell tornado potential later today, some of which could be strong (EF2+) given the magnitudes of the deep-layer/low-level shear and moisture-rich environment with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70F. That said, some modal/mesoscale uncertainties still persist as to warm-sector development and the coverage and longevity of surface-based supercells, with convection potentially tending to be more prevalent/likely just north of the effective front. Otherwise, large to very large hail will be a threat with the expected supercellular development along/north of the front, with upscale-growing clusters posing a damaging wind threat as well. ...West-central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma late tonight... Elevated supercells are expected to again develop late tonight (after midnight CDT) and early Friday as forcing for ascent increases to the north of the surface front. These storms will pose a large hail threat, and possibly some severe-wind potential as well, particularly if elevated bow echo development occurs as storms spread northeastward within a highly sheared environment. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva... Remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries will serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. While some details remain uncertain, any storms that develop along/south of the front could pose risks for hail and damaging winds. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the ArkLaTex across the Mid-South into Middle Tennessee. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... With a prominent upper trough over the West, strong southwesterly winds aloft will overlie areas along/north of a frontal zone extending from the middle part of Texas into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South, east-northeastward to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain somewhat nebulous near the front and southward into the warm sector, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. A notable diurnal strengthening of the low-level jet /45-55 kt/ is expected today across the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where it will impinge on the west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented effective front. This is concerning regarding supercell tornado potential later today, some of which could be strong (EF2+) given the magnitudes of the deep-layer/low-level shear and moisture-rich environment with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70F. That said, some modal/mesoscale uncertainties still persist as to warm-sector development and the coverage and longevity of surface-based supercells, with convection potentially tending to be more prevalent/likely just north of the effective front. Otherwise, large to very large hail will be a threat with the expected supercellular development along/north of the front, with upscale-growing clusters posing a damaging wind threat as well. ...West-central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma late tonight... Elevated supercells are expected to again develop late tonight (after midnight CDT) and early Friday as forcing for ascent increases to the north of the surface front. These storms will pose a large hail threat, and possibly some severe-wind potential as well, particularly if elevated bow echo development occurs as storms spread northeastward within a highly sheared environment. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva... Remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries will serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. While some details remain uncertain, any storms that develop along/south of the front could pose risks for hail and damaging winds. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the ArkLaTex across the Mid-South into Middle Tennessee. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... With a prominent upper trough over the West, strong southwesterly winds aloft will overlie areas along/north of a frontal zone extending from the middle part of Texas into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South, east-northeastward to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain somewhat nebulous near the front and southward into the warm sector, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. A notable diurnal strengthening of the low-level jet /45-55 kt/ is expected today across the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where it will impinge on the west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented effective front. This is concerning regarding supercell tornado potential later today, some of which could be strong (EF2+) given the magnitudes of the deep-layer/low-level shear and moisture-rich environment with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70F. That said, some modal/mesoscale uncertainties still persist as to warm-sector development and the coverage and longevity of surface-based supercells, with convection potentially tending to be more prevalent/likely just north of the effective front. Otherwise, large to very large hail will be a threat with the expected supercellular development along/north of the front, with upscale-growing clusters posing a damaging wind threat as well. ...West-central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma late tonight... Elevated supercells are expected to again develop late tonight (after midnight CDT) and early Friday as forcing for ascent increases to the north of the surface front. These storms will pose a large hail threat, and possibly some severe-wind potential as well, particularly if elevated bow echo development occurs as storms spread northeastward within a highly sheared environment. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva... Remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries will serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. While some details remain uncertain, any storms that develop along/south of the front could pose risks for hail and damaging winds. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the ArkLaTex across the Mid-South into Middle Tennessee. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... With a prominent upper trough over the West, strong southwesterly winds aloft will overlie areas along/north of a frontal zone extending from the middle part of Texas into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South, east-northeastward to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain somewhat nebulous near the front and southward into the warm sector, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. A notable diurnal strengthening of the low-level jet /45-55 kt/ is expected today across the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where it will impinge on the west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented effective front. This is concerning regarding supercell tornado potential later today, some of which could be strong (EF2+) given the magnitudes of the deep-layer/low-level shear and moisture-rich environment with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70F. That said, some modal/mesoscale uncertainties still persist as to warm-sector development and the coverage and longevity of surface-based supercells, with convection potentially tending to be more prevalent/likely just north of the effective front. Otherwise, large to very large hail will be a threat with the expected supercellular development along/north of the front, with upscale-growing clusters posing a damaging wind threat as well. ...West-central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma late tonight... Elevated supercells are expected to again develop late tonight (after midnight CDT) and early Friday as forcing for ascent increases to the north of the surface front. These storms will pose a large hail threat, and possibly some severe-wind potential as well, particularly if elevated bow echo development occurs as storms spread northeastward within a highly sheared environment. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva... Remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries will serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. While some details remain uncertain, any storms that develop along/south of the front could pose risks for hail and damaging winds. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the ArkLaTex across the Mid-South into Middle Tennessee. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... With a prominent upper trough over the West, strong southwesterly winds aloft will overlie areas along/north of a frontal zone extending from the middle part of Texas into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South, east-northeastward to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain somewhat nebulous near the front and southward into the warm sector, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. A notable diurnal strengthening of the low-level jet /45-55 kt/ is expected today across the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where it will impinge on the west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented effective front. This is concerning regarding supercell tornado potential later today, some of which could be strong (EF2+) given the magnitudes of the deep-layer/low-level shear and moisture-rich environment with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70F. That said, some modal/mesoscale uncertainties still persist as to warm-sector development and the coverage and longevity of surface-based supercells, with convection potentially tending to be more prevalent/likely just north of the effective front. Otherwise, large to very large hail will be a threat with the expected supercellular development along/north of the front, with upscale-growing clusters posing a damaging wind threat as well. ...West-central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma late tonight... Elevated supercells are expected to again develop late tonight (after midnight CDT) and early Friday as forcing for ascent increases to the north of the surface front. These storms will pose a large hail threat, and possibly some severe-wind potential as well, particularly if elevated bow echo development occurs as storms spread northeastward within a highly sheared environment. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva... Remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries will serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. While some details remain uncertain, any storms that develop along/south of the front could pose risks for hail and damaging winds. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the ArkLaTex across the Mid-South into Middle Tennessee. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... With a prominent upper trough over the West, strong southwesterly winds aloft will overlie areas along/north of a frontal zone extending from the middle part of Texas into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South, east-northeastward to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain somewhat nebulous near the front and southward into the warm sector, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. A notable diurnal strengthening of the low-level jet /45-55 kt/ is expected today across the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where it will impinge on the west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented effective front. This is concerning regarding supercell tornado potential later today, some of which could be strong (EF2+) given the magnitudes of the deep-layer/low-level shear and moisture-rich environment with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70F. That said, some modal/mesoscale uncertainties still persist as to warm-sector development and the coverage and longevity of surface-based supercells, with convection potentially tending to be more prevalent/likely just north of the effective front. Otherwise, large to very large hail will be a threat with the expected supercellular development along/north of the front, with upscale-growing clusters posing a damaging wind threat as well. ...West-central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma late tonight... Elevated supercells are expected to again develop late tonight (after midnight CDT) and early Friday as forcing for ascent increases to the north of the surface front. These storms will pose a large hail threat, and possibly some severe-wind potential as well, particularly if elevated bow echo development occurs as storms spread northeastward within a highly sheared environment. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva... Remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries will serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. While some details remain uncertain, any storms that develop along/south of the front could pose risks for hail and damaging winds. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the ArkLaTex across the Mid-South into Middle Tennessee. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... With a prominent upper trough over the West, strong southwesterly winds aloft will overlie areas along/north of a frontal zone extending from the middle part of Texas into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South, east-northeastward to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain somewhat nebulous near the front and southward into the warm sector, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. A notable diurnal strengthening of the low-level jet /45-55 kt/ is expected today across the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where it will impinge on the west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented effective front. This is concerning regarding supercell tornado potential later today, some of which could be strong (EF2+) given the magnitudes of the deep-layer/low-level shear and moisture-rich environment with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70F. That said, some modal/mesoscale uncertainties still persist as to warm-sector development and the coverage and longevity of surface-based supercells, with convection potentially tending to be more prevalent/likely just north of the effective front. Otherwise, large to very large hail will be a threat with the expected supercellular development along/north of the front, with upscale-growing clusters posing a damaging wind threat as well. ...West-central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma late tonight... Elevated supercells are expected to again develop late tonight (after midnight CDT) and early Friday as forcing for ascent increases to the north of the surface front. These storms will pose a large hail threat, and possibly some severe-wind potential as well, particularly if elevated bow echo development occurs as storms spread northeastward within a highly sheared environment. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva... Remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries will serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. While some details remain uncertain, any storms that develop along/south of the front could pose risks for hail and damaging winds. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 04/03/2025 Read more

MD 0377 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MIDDLE/NORTHEAST TN INTO SOUTHEAST KY
Mesoscale Discussion 0377 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0941 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Areas affected...Middle/northeast TN into southeast KY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 031441Z - 031615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Monitoring for storm intensification through the morning. Some threat for all severe hazards could evolve with time. DISCUSSION...Occasional supercell structures continue to be observed this morning with convection moving across middle/northeast TN. Thus far, these cells have generally stayed north of an outflow boundary draped across the region, though the cell currently south of Nashville is located in the immediate vicinity of this front. With some heating/destabilization ongoing south of the front, there will be some potential for storm intensification with cells that can remain rooted near the boundary, which may move northward through the day. With MLCAPE expected to increase through the 500-1000 J/kg along/south of the front and favorable wind profiles expected to persist through the day, some threat for all severe hazards could evolve with time near the boundary, with an isolated hail and damaging wind threat north of the boundary. However, with generally modest large-scale ascent expected through the morning, the short-term severe threat and need for watch issuance remains uncertain. ..Dean/Guyer.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX... LAT...LON 36248666 37098489 37358389 37178332 36978312 36878304 36608303 36088384 35928449 35838494 35748547 35648610 35648662 36248666 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0376 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0376 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0855 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Areas affected...South-central into southeast OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 031355Z - 031530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will spread northeastward this morning. The longevity of the morning threat remains uncertain. DISCUSSION...Despite being elevated above an outflow-reinforced front draped across north TX, a bowing segment has recently produced several severe gusts ranging from 63-72 mph across south-central OK. This bowing segment is moving along the gradient of elevated buoyancy, with MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and strong effective shear (greater than 50 kt) providing a favorable environment for maintenance of this bow as it moves east-northeastward. Given its elevated nature and location near the gradient of favorable MUCAPE, the longevity of the severe threat with this bowing segment is uncertain. However, a threat for severe gusts and isolated hail through at least mid morning. If this storm cluster and bowing segment can keep pace with returning deeper moisture above the surface, then it could persist later into the morning with a continued severe threat. ..Dean/Guyer.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 34729700 35119641 35559522 34659475 34309476 33989611 33909661 33989655 34279676 34729700 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0375 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 106... FOR NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0375 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Areas affected...north Texas and southeast OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106... Valid 031138Z - 031345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106 continues. SUMMARY...Elevated cells will continue to pose a large hail risk this morning across portions of north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. DISCUSSION...A couple of strong, elevated supercells across western north TX will continue to shift east through the morning. This activity is occurring in a warm advection regime atop a stalled surface boundary draped across north/north-central Texas eastward to the AR/LA border. Steep midlevel lapse rates are contributing to modest elevated instability, with MUCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg noted in latest mesoanalysis. Additional cells may develop within this regime through the morning hours and large hail potential may persist beyond the 13z expiration time of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106. Some severe potential also could persist downstream of the current watch, though north and east extent is somewhat uncertain. A new watch, or a local watch extension will likely be needed in the next hour or so. ..Leitman.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 33859877 34489576 34399464 33889441 32979495 32419639 32189815 32349875 32749908 33369911 33859877 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the Arklatex into western/middle Tennessee, where very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southern Mid-Atlantic... Within broad upper troughing over the western CONUS, ascent associated with an embedded mid-level shortwave trough has encouraged multiple elevated supercells across west into north-central TX this morning along/north of a surface front. These thunderstorms are also being aided with continued moisture transport by a southerly low-level jet. With ample MUCAPE along/north of the front, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong cloud-layer shear all present, these supercells should continue to pose a threat for mainly large to perhaps very large hail for at least a couple more hours. By late morning to early afternoon, thunderstorm interactions and mergers may gradually reduce the severe hail threat north of the front across OK/TX into AR. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and TN Valley. Ongoing convection this morning across middle/eastern TN into eastern KY may pose an isolated severe threat in the short term. But, most of this activity has outpaced greater low-level moisture to the southwest, and/or has become slightly elevated to the north of the front. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain nebulous/weak across these areas, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. Large to very large hail will be a threat with supercells that are forecast to develop, and a tornado threat will likely exist with any convection that can remain surface based/to the warm side of the front. With rather strong low-level shear forecast, a conditionally favorable environment will exist for strong tornadoes, with continued uncertainty whether supercells this afternoon/evening will be mainly surface based, or slightly elevated north of the front. Across the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic, remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries from earlier this morning should tend to serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risk areas to account for this. Overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity remain rather uncertain across these regions later this afternoon and evening, with some guidance still showing isolated thunderstorms redeveloping. If any convection can form along/south of the front later today, then it could pose some threat for hail and damaging winds. Finally, elevated supercells are forecast to develop once again late tonight into early Friday morning across parts of west into north-central TX. These should mainly have a severe hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the Arklatex into western/middle Tennessee, where very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southern Mid-Atlantic... Within broad upper troughing over the western CONUS, ascent associated with an embedded mid-level shortwave trough has encouraged multiple elevated supercells across west into north-central TX this morning along/north of a surface front. These thunderstorms are also being aided with continued moisture transport by a southerly low-level jet. With ample MUCAPE along/north of the front, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong cloud-layer shear all present, these supercells should continue to pose a threat for mainly large to perhaps very large hail for at least a couple more hours. By late morning to early afternoon, thunderstorm interactions and mergers may gradually reduce the severe hail threat north of the front across OK/TX into AR. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and TN Valley. Ongoing convection this morning across middle/eastern TN into eastern KY may pose an isolated severe threat in the short term. But, most of this activity has outpaced greater low-level moisture to the southwest, and/or has become slightly elevated to the north of the front. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain nebulous/weak across these areas, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. Large to very large hail will be a threat with supercells that are forecast to develop, and a tornado threat will likely exist with any convection that can remain surface based/to the warm side of the front. With rather strong low-level shear forecast, a conditionally favorable environment will exist for strong tornadoes, with continued uncertainty whether supercells this afternoon/evening will be mainly surface based, or slightly elevated north of the front. Across the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic, remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries from earlier this morning should tend to serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risk areas to account for this. Overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity remain rather uncertain across these regions later this afternoon and evening, with some guidance still showing isolated thunderstorms redeveloping. If any convection can form along/south of the front later today, then it could pose some threat for hail and damaging winds. Finally, elevated supercells are forecast to develop once again late tonight into early Friday morning across parts of west into north-central TX. These should mainly have a severe hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the Arklatex into western/middle Tennessee, where very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southern Mid-Atlantic... Within broad upper troughing over the western CONUS, ascent associated with an embedded mid-level shortwave trough has encouraged multiple elevated supercells across west into north-central TX this morning along/north of a surface front. These thunderstorms are also being aided with continued moisture transport by a southerly low-level jet. With ample MUCAPE along/north of the front, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong cloud-layer shear all present, these supercells should continue to pose a threat for mainly large to perhaps very large hail for at least a couple more hours. By late morning to early afternoon, thunderstorm interactions and mergers may gradually reduce the severe hail threat north of the front across OK/TX into AR. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and TN Valley. Ongoing convection this morning across middle/eastern TN into eastern KY may pose an isolated severe threat in the short term. But, most of this activity has outpaced greater low-level moisture to the southwest, and/or has become slightly elevated to the north of the front. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain nebulous/weak across these areas, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. Large to very large hail will be a threat with supercells that are forecast to develop, and a tornado threat will likely exist with any convection that can remain surface based/to the warm side of the front. With rather strong low-level shear forecast, a conditionally favorable environment will exist for strong tornadoes, with continued uncertainty whether supercells this afternoon/evening will be mainly surface based, or slightly elevated north of the front. Across the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic, remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries from earlier this morning should tend to serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risk areas to account for this. Overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity remain rather uncertain across these regions later this afternoon and evening, with some guidance still showing isolated thunderstorms redeveloping. If any convection can form along/south of the front later today, then it could pose some threat for hail and damaging winds. Finally, elevated supercells are forecast to develop once again late tonight into early Friday morning across parts of west into north-central TX. These should mainly have a severe hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the Arklatex into western/middle Tennessee, where very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southern Mid-Atlantic... Within broad upper troughing over the western CONUS, ascent associated with an embedded mid-level shortwave trough has encouraged multiple elevated supercells across west into north-central TX this morning along/north of a surface front. These thunderstorms are also being aided with continued moisture transport by a southerly low-level jet. With ample MUCAPE along/north of the front, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong cloud-layer shear all present, these supercells should continue to pose a threat for mainly large to perhaps very large hail for at least a couple more hours. By late morning to early afternoon, thunderstorm interactions and mergers may gradually reduce the severe hail threat north of the front across OK/TX into AR. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and TN Valley. Ongoing convection this morning across middle/eastern TN into eastern KY may pose an isolated severe threat in the short term. But, most of this activity has outpaced greater low-level moisture to the southwest, and/or has become slightly elevated to the north of the front. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain nebulous/weak across these areas, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. Large to very large hail will be a threat with supercells that are forecast to develop, and a tornado threat will likely exist with any convection that can remain surface based/to the warm side of the front. With rather strong low-level shear forecast, a conditionally favorable environment will exist for strong tornadoes, with continued uncertainty whether supercells this afternoon/evening will be mainly surface based, or slightly elevated north of the front. Across the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic, remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries from earlier this morning should tend to serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risk areas to account for this. Overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity remain rather uncertain across these regions later this afternoon and evening, with some guidance still showing isolated thunderstorms redeveloping. If any convection can form along/south of the front later today, then it could pose some threat for hail and damaging winds. Finally, elevated supercells are forecast to develop once again late tonight into early Friday morning across parts of west into north-central TX. These should mainly have a severe hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the Arklatex into western/middle Tennessee, where very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southern Mid-Atlantic... Within broad upper troughing over the western CONUS, ascent associated with an embedded mid-level shortwave trough has encouraged multiple elevated supercells across west into north-central TX this morning along/north of a surface front. These thunderstorms are also being aided with continued moisture transport by a southerly low-level jet. With ample MUCAPE along/north of the front, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong cloud-layer shear all present, these supercells should continue to pose a threat for mainly large to perhaps very large hail for at least a couple more hours. By late morning to early afternoon, thunderstorm interactions and mergers may gradually reduce the severe hail threat north of the front across OK/TX into AR. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and TN Valley. Ongoing convection this morning across middle/eastern TN into eastern KY may pose an isolated severe threat in the short term. But, most of this activity has outpaced greater low-level moisture to the southwest, and/or has become slightly elevated to the north of the front. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain nebulous/weak across these areas, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. Large to very large hail will be a threat with supercells that are forecast to develop, and a tornado threat will likely exist with any convection that can remain surface based/to the warm side of the front. With rather strong low-level shear forecast, a conditionally favorable environment will exist for strong tornadoes, with continued uncertainty whether supercells this afternoon/evening will be mainly surface based, or slightly elevated north of the front. Across the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic, remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries from earlier this morning should tend to serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risk areas to account for this. Overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity remain rather uncertain across these regions later this afternoon and evening, with some guidance still showing isolated thunderstorms redeveloping. If any convection can form along/south of the front later today, then it could pose some threat for hail and damaging winds. Finally, elevated supercells are forecast to develop once again late tonight into early Friday morning across parts of west into north-central TX. These should mainly have a severe hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the Arklatex into western/middle Tennessee, where very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southern Mid-Atlantic... Within broad upper troughing over the western CONUS, ascent associated with an embedded mid-level shortwave trough has encouraged multiple elevated supercells across west into north-central TX this morning along/north of a surface front. These thunderstorms are also being aided with continued moisture transport by a southerly low-level jet. With ample MUCAPE along/north of the front, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong cloud-layer shear all present, these supercells should continue to pose a threat for mainly large to perhaps very large hail for at least a couple more hours. By late morning to early afternoon, thunderstorm interactions and mergers may gradually reduce the severe hail threat north of the front across OK/TX into AR. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and TN Valley. Ongoing convection this morning across middle/eastern TN into eastern KY may pose an isolated severe threat in the short term. But, most of this activity has outpaced greater low-level moisture to the southwest, and/or has become slightly elevated to the north of the front. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain nebulous/weak across these areas, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. Large to very large hail will be a threat with supercells that are forecast to develop, and a tornado threat will likely exist with any convection that can remain surface based/to the warm side of the front. With rather strong low-level shear forecast, a conditionally favorable environment will exist for strong tornadoes, with continued uncertainty whether supercells this afternoon/evening will be mainly surface based, or slightly elevated north of the front. Across the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic, remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries from earlier this morning should tend to serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risk areas to account for this. Overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity remain rather uncertain across these regions later this afternoon and evening, with some guidance still showing isolated thunderstorms redeveloping. If any convection can form along/south of the front later today, then it could pose some threat for hail and damaging winds. Finally, elevated supercells are forecast to develop once again late tonight into early Friday morning across parts of west into north-central TX. These should mainly have a severe hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the Arklatex into western/middle Tennessee, where very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southern Mid-Atlantic... Within broad upper troughing over the western CONUS, ascent associated with an embedded mid-level shortwave trough has encouraged multiple elevated supercells across west into north-central TX this morning along/north of a surface front. These thunderstorms are also being aided with continued moisture transport by a southerly low-level jet. With ample MUCAPE along/north of the front, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong cloud-layer shear all present, these supercells should continue to pose a threat for mainly large to perhaps very large hail for at least a couple more hours. By late morning to early afternoon, thunderstorm interactions and mergers may gradually reduce the severe hail threat north of the front across OK/TX into AR. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and TN Valley. Ongoing convection this morning across middle/eastern TN into eastern KY may pose an isolated severe threat in the short term. But, most of this activity has outpaced greater low-level moisture to the southwest, and/or has become slightly elevated to the north of the front. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain nebulous/weak across these areas, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. Large to very large hail will be a threat with supercells that are forecast to develop, and a tornado threat will likely exist with any convection that can remain surface based/to the warm side of the front. With rather strong low-level shear forecast, a conditionally favorable environment will exist for strong tornadoes, with continued uncertainty whether supercells this afternoon/evening will be mainly surface based, or slightly elevated north of the front. Across the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic, remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries from earlier this morning should tend to serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risk areas to account for this. Overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity remain rather uncertain across these regions later this afternoon and evening, with some guidance still showing isolated thunderstorms redeveloping. If any convection can form along/south of the front later today, then it could pose some threat for hail and damaging winds. Finally, elevated supercells are forecast to develop once again late tonight into early Friday morning across parts of west into north-central TX. These should mainly have a severe hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/03/2025 Read more