Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered convection may persist in portions of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado or two remain possible this evening into Monday morning. ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough within the Plains will continue eastward progress through tonight. Mid-level winds may gradually increase across portions of the Southeast. Convection along the surface cold front will likely persist into Monday morning given continued forcing for ascent and a very moist low-level airmass. ...Southern Alabama and Florida Panhandle Vicinity... Convection continues this evening across the region. Lightning trends further inland from the Gulf have generally trended down over the last few hours. Upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints remain south of convective outflow in southern Alabama into the Florida Panhandle and adjacent southwest Georgia. Given the moist airmass in place and continued theta-e advection into the region, MLCIN should remain minimal through tonight. 850 mb winds are expected to maintain their intensity ahead of the convection and area VADs continue to show some low-level hodograph enlargement. Storm intensity through the overnight is not certain given the storm mode, gradual boundary-layer cooling, and weak lapse rates (observed in the BMX sounding this evening). However, given the forcing, strong deep-layer shear, and adequate low-level shear, the environment will remain conditionally favorable for a tornado or two into Monday morning. The 5% tornado probabilities (Slight risk) will be maintained for this reason. The strongest convection may also produce isolated wind damage. ..Wendt.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered convection may persist in portions of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado or two remain possible this evening into Monday morning. ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough within the Plains will continue eastward progress through tonight. Mid-level winds may gradually increase across portions of the Southeast. Convection along the surface cold front will likely persist into Monday morning given continued forcing for ascent and a very moist low-level airmass. ...Southern Alabama and Florida Panhandle Vicinity... Convection continues this evening across the region. Lightning trends further inland from the Gulf have generally trended down over the last few hours. Upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints remain south of convective outflow in southern Alabama into the Florida Panhandle and adjacent southwest Georgia. Given the moist airmass in place and continued theta-e advection into the region, MLCIN should remain minimal through tonight. 850 mb winds are expected to maintain their intensity ahead of the convection and area VADs continue to show some low-level hodograph enlargement. Storm intensity through the overnight is not certain given the storm mode, gradual boundary-layer cooling, and weak lapse rates (observed in the BMX sounding this evening). However, given the forcing, strong deep-layer shear, and adequate low-level shear, the environment will remain conditionally favorable for a tornado or two into Monday morning. The 5% tornado probabilities (Slight risk) will be maintained for this reason. The strongest convection may also produce isolated wind damage. ..Wendt.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered convection may persist in portions of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado or two remain possible this evening into Monday morning. ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough within the Plains will continue eastward progress through tonight. Mid-level winds may gradually increase across portions of the Southeast. Convection along the surface cold front will likely persist into Monday morning given continued forcing for ascent and a very moist low-level airmass. ...Southern Alabama and Florida Panhandle Vicinity... Convection continues this evening across the region. Lightning trends further inland from the Gulf have generally trended down over the last few hours. Upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints remain south of convective outflow in southern Alabama into the Florida Panhandle and adjacent southwest Georgia. Given the moist airmass in place and continued theta-e advection into the region, MLCIN should remain minimal through tonight. 850 mb winds are expected to maintain their intensity ahead of the convection and area VADs continue to show some low-level hodograph enlargement. Storm intensity through the overnight is not certain given the storm mode, gradual boundary-layer cooling, and weak lapse rates (observed in the BMX sounding this evening). However, given the forcing, strong deep-layer shear, and adequate low-level shear, the environment will remain conditionally favorable for a tornado or two into Monday morning. The 5% tornado probabilities (Slight risk) will be maintained for this reason. The strongest convection may also produce isolated wind damage. ..Wendt.. 04/07/2025 Read more

MD 0430 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0430 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Areas affected...Parts of south and central AL into the FL Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062318Z - 070115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated damaging wind and/or a tornado may persist through the evening. DISCUSSION...Despite rich boundary-layer moisture and the presence of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, convection has struggled to remain organized across parts of AL early this evening, possibly due to generally weak lapse rates and some tendency for storms to be undercut by outflow. However, deep-layer shear remains favorable for organized convection, and a persistent 30-40 kt low-level jet is supporting some enhancement to low-level shear/SRH. One cell near Montgomery has recently intensified near an outflow boundary, while an occasionally strong storm cluster persists near/east of Mobile. There remains some potential for a few cells or clusters to acquire at least transient organization through the evening, and pose a threat for locally damaging wind and/or a tornado. Given the longer-term trends, new watch issuance in the short term is considered unlikely. However, if trends begin to support more organized upscale growth or sustained rotating cells, then watch issuance may become possible. ..Dean/Hart.. 04/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 30188865 30978805 31318785 33128643 33208584 33098545 32018539 31618549 31298574 30918610 30708663 30458718 30188865 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 0430 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0430 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Areas affected...Parts of south and central AL into the FL Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062318Z - 070115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated damaging wind and/or a tornado may persist through the evening. DISCUSSION...Despite rich boundary-layer moisture and the presence of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, convection has struggled to remain organized across parts of AL early this evening, possibly due to generally weak lapse rates and some tendency for storms to be undercut by outflow. However, deep-layer shear remains favorable for organized convection, and a persistent 30-40 kt low-level jet is supporting some enhancement to low-level shear/SRH. One cell near Montgomery has recently intensified near an outflow boundary, while an occasionally strong storm cluster persists near/east of Mobile. There remains some potential for a few cells or clusters to acquire at least transient organization through the evening, and pose a threat for locally damaging wind and/or a tornado. Given the longer-term trends, new watch issuance in the short term is considered unlikely. However, if trends begin to support more organized upscale growth or sustained rotating cells, then watch issuance may become possible. ..Dean/Hart.. 04/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 30188865 30978805 31318785 33128643 33208584 33098545 32018539 31618549 31298574 30918610 30708663 30458718 30188865 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 0429 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 132... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0429 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0537 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Areas affected...portions of central into eastern Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 132... Valid 062237Z - 062330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 132 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to continue across the remainder of Tornado Watch 132 over central into eastern GA. A couple of tornadoes are still possible with the more intense storms. DISCUSSION...A cluster of organized thunderstorms, including an embedded supercell with a recent history of producing a tornado, persists across central GA. These storms are outpacing warm sector moisture, with a considerable decrease in MLCAPE noted downstream. Nonetheless, organized storms persisting in an ambient environment characterized by strong deep-layer shear suggests that the severe threat may persist into eastern GA over the next couple of hours. ..Squitieri.. 04/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC... LAT...LON 32228434 32838365 33198311 33298268 33208246 32858229 32498231 32178251 31958280 31918341 31998386 32228434 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 6 22:18:04 UTC 2025.

MD 0428 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 132... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL GA...INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0428 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Areas affected...parts of southern AL...southwest/central GA...into the western FL Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 132... Valid 062048Z - 062215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 132 continues. SUMMARY...Several bands of strong to severe storms will remain capable of damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes. Some local extensions of WW132 may be needed, but the downstream threat appears more limited. DISCUSSION...As of 2040 UTC, regional radar observations indicate a band of convection across southeastern AL and west-central GA continues to show embedded supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging gusts and tornadoes. This should continue for a couple more hours as storms approach the eastern edge of the Tornado Watch 132. Areal extensions of a few counties may be needed as storms begin to outrun the watch. As storms continue farther east, a gradual decrease in buoyancy should favor weakening into the evening hours. Until then, damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes remain possible. To the southwest, a second smaller band of convection across southern AL will likely maintain intensity for a few more hours this afternoon. A few more isolated cells have also developed farther east within the warm sector across southwest GA and the northern FL Panhandle. 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40+ kt of effective shear could support a continued severe threat into this evening. This matches with some hi-res guidance that shows a gradual expansion of strong storms into southwest GA and possibly northern FL. However, forcing for ascent is some what nebulous and storm coverage has remained more isolated thus far. With storms approaching the southeast corner of WW132 in the next few hours, some consideration may be given to a small downstream watch. However the extent of the severe risk and need for any new watches is currently unclear. ..Lyons.. 04/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 30688841 31368762 32068571 32998474 33518424 33638347 33448296 33028316 31788394 30788483 30508589 30478720 30438831 30688841 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to build across the southwestern U.S. Day 3/Tuesday through Day 6/Friday, as a low-amplitude mid-level trough overspreads portions of the northern Rockies into the High Plains. A potentially stronger/deeper mid-level trough is forecast to move across the western U.S. beginning Day 6/Friday and over the Central U.S. through Day 8/Sunday. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Day 5/Thursday: Southern/Central High Plains... An increase in fire weather conditions is possible midweek across portions of the southern/central High Plains, as strong flow associated with the aforementioned mid-level trough impinges on the area. While warm, dry, and breezy conditions are forecast, uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness (owing to recent rainfall) and a relatively marginal overlap of reduced RH and stronger winds precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 6/Friday - Day 8/Sunday: Southwest into the Great Basin eastward to the High Plains... Forecast model guidance continues to exhibit relatively poor run-to-run and inter-model consistency regarding the evolution of the aforementioned mid-level trough across the western U.S. Day 6/Friday through at least Day 8/Sunday. While increasing fire weather conditions are probable, the probability for Critical fire weather conditions remains less than 40% due to uncertainty regarding the placement and timing of overlapping critical wind, rh, and fuels. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to build across the southwestern U.S. Day 3/Tuesday through Day 6/Friday, as a low-amplitude mid-level trough overspreads portions of the northern Rockies into the High Plains. A potentially stronger/deeper mid-level trough is forecast to move across the western U.S. beginning Day 6/Friday and over the Central U.S. through Day 8/Sunday. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Day 5/Thursday: Southern/Central High Plains... An increase in fire weather conditions is possible midweek across portions of the southern/central High Plains, as strong flow associated with the aforementioned mid-level trough impinges on the area. While warm, dry, and breezy conditions are forecast, uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness (owing to recent rainfall) and a relatively marginal overlap of reduced RH and stronger winds precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 6/Friday - Day 8/Sunday: Southwest into the Great Basin eastward to the High Plains... Forecast model guidance continues to exhibit relatively poor run-to-run and inter-model consistency regarding the evolution of the aforementioned mid-level trough across the western U.S. Day 6/Friday through at least Day 8/Sunday. While increasing fire weather conditions are probable, the probability for Critical fire weather conditions remains less than 40% due to uncertainty regarding the placement and timing of overlapping critical wind, rh, and fuels. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to build across the southwestern U.S. Day 3/Tuesday through Day 6/Friday, as a low-amplitude mid-level trough overspreads portions of the northern Rockies into the High Plains. A potentially stronger/deeper mid-level trough is forecast to move across the western U.S. beginning Day 6/Friday and over the Central U.S. through Day 8/Sunday. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Day 5/Thursday: Southern/Central High Plains... An increase in fire weather conditions is possible midweek across portions of the southern/central High Plains, as strong flow associated with the aforementioned mid-level trough impinges on the area. While warm, dry, and breezy conditions are forecast, uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness (owing to recent rainfall) and a relatively marginal overlap of reduced RH and stronger winds precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 6/Friday - Day 8/Sunday: Southwest into the Great Basin eastward to the High Plains... Forecast model guidance continues to exhibit relatively poor run-to-run and inter-model consistency regarding the evolution of the aforementioned mid-level trough across the western U.S. Day 6/Friday through at least Day 8/Sunday. While increasing fire weather conditions are probable, the probability for Critical fire weather conditions remains less than 40% due to uncertainty regarding the placement and timing of overlapping critical wind, rh, and fuels. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to build across the southwestern U.S. Day 3/Tuesday through Day 6/Friday, as a low-amplitude mid-level trough overspreads portions of the northern Rockies into the High Plains. A potentially stronger/deeper mid-level trough is forecast to move across the western U.S. beginning Day 6/Friday and over the Central U.S. through Day 8/Sunday. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Day 5/Thursday: Southern/Central High Plains... An increase in fire weather conditions is possible midweek across portions of the southern/central High Plains, as strong flow associated with the aforementioned mid-level trough impinges on the area. While warm, dry, and breezy conditions are forecast, uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness (owing to recent rainfall) and a relatively marginal overlap of reduced RH and stronger winds precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 6/Friday - Day 8/Sunday: Southwest into the Great Basin eastward to the High Plains... Forecast model guidance continues to exhibit relatively poor run-to-run and inter-model consistency regarding the evolution of the aforementioned mid-level trough across the western U.S. Day 6/Friday through at least Day 8/Sunday. While increasing fire weather conditions are probable, the probability for Critical fire weather conditions remains less than 40% due to uncertainty regarding the placement and timing of overlapping critical wind, rh, and fuels. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to build across the southwestern U.S. Day 3/Tuesday through Day 6/Friday, as a low-amplitude mid-level trough overspreads portions of the northern Rockies into the High Plains. A potentially stronger/deeper mid-level trough is forecast to move across the western U.S. beginning Day 6/Friday and over the Central U.S. through Day 8/Sunday. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Day 5/Thursday: Southern/Central High Plains... An increase in fire weather conditions is possible midweek across portions of the southern/central High Plains, as strong flow associated with the aforementioned mid-level trough impinges on the area. While warm, dry, and breezy conditions are forecast, uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness (owing to recent rainfall) and a relatively marginal overlap of reduced RH and stronger winds precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 6/Friday - Day 8/Sunday: Southwest into the Great Basin eastward to the High Plains... Forecast model guidance continues to exhibit relatively poor run-to-run and inter-model consistency regarding the evolution of the aforementioned mid-level trough across the western U.S. Day 6/Friday through at least Day 8/Sunday. While increasing fire weather conditions are probable, the probability for Critical fire weather conditions remains less than 40% due to uncertainty regarding the placement and timing of overlapping critical wind, rh, and fuels. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to build across the southwestern U.S. Day 3/Tuesday through Day 6/Friday, as a low-amplitude mid-level trough overspreads portions of the northern Rockies into the High Plains. A potentially stronger/deeper mid-level trough is forecast to move across the western U.S. beginning Day 6/Friday and over the Central U.S. through Day 8/Sunday. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Day 5/Thursday: Southern/Central High Plains... An increase in fire weather conditions is possible midweek across portions of the southern/central High Plains, as strong flow associated with the aforementioned mid-level trough impinges on the area. While warm, dry, and breezy conditions are forecast, uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness (owing to recent rainfall) and a relatively marginal overlap of reduced RH and stronger winds precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 6/Friday - Day 8/Sunday: Southwest into the Great Basin eastward to the High Plains... Forecast model guidance continues to exhibit relatively poor run-to-run and inter-model consistency regarding the evolution of the aforementioned mid-level trough across the western U.S. Day 6/Friday through at least Day 8/Sunday. While increasing fire weather conditions are probable, the probability for Critical fire weather conditions remains less than 40% due to uncertainty regarding the placement and timing of overlapping critical wind, rh, and fuels. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to build across the southwestern U.S. Day 3/Tuesday through Day 6/Friday, as a low-amplitude mid-level trough overspreads portions of the northern Rockies into the High Plains. A potentially stronger/deeper mid-level trough is forecast to move across the western U.S. beginning Day 6/Friday and over the Central U.S. through Day 8/Sunday. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Day 5/Thursday: Southern/Central High Plains... An increase in fire weather conditions is possible midweek across portions of the southern/central High Plains, as strong flow associated with the aforementioned mid-level trough impinges on the area. While warm, dry, and breezy conditions are forecast, uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness (owing to recent rainfall) and a relatively marginal overlap of reduced RH and stronger winds precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 6/Friday - Day 8/Sunday: Southwest into the Great Basin eastward to the High Plains... Forecast model guidance continues to exhibit relatively poor run-to-run and inter-model consistency regarding the evolution of the aforementioned mid-level trough across the western U.S. Day 6/Friday through at least Day 8/Sunday. While increasing fire weather conditions are probable, the probability for Critical fire weather conditions remains less than 40% due to uncertainty regarding the placement and timing of overlapping critical wind, rh, and fuels. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to build across the southwestern U.S. Day 3/Tuesday through Day 6/Friday, as a low-amplitude mid-level trough overspreads portions of the northern Rockies into the High Plains. A potentially stronger/deeper mid-level trough is forecast to move across the western U.S. beginning Day 6/Friday and over the Central U.S. through Day 8/Sunday. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Day 5/Thursday: Southern/Central High Plains... An increase in fire weather conditions is possible midweek across portions of the southern/central High Plains, as strong flow associated with the aforementioned mid-level trough impinges on the area. While warm, dry, and breezy conditions are forecast, uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness (owing to recent rainfall) and a relatively marginal overlap of reduced RH and stronger winds precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 6/Friday - Day 8/Sunday: Southwest into the Great Basin eastward to the High Plains... Forecast model guidance continues to exhibit relatively poor run-to-run and inter-model consistency regarding the evolution of the aforementioned mid-level trough across the western U.S. Day 6/Friday through at least Day 8/Sunday. While increasing fire weather conditions are probable, the probability for Critical fire weather conditions remains less than 40% due to uncertainty regarding the placement and timing of overlapping critical wind, rh, and fuels. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to build across the southwestern U.S. Day 3/Tuesday through Day 6/Friday, as a low-amplitude mid-level trough overspreads portions of the northern Rockies into the High Plains. A potentially stronger/deeper mid-level trough is forecast to move across the western U.S. beginning Day 6/Friday and over the Central U.S. through Day 8/Sunday. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Day 5/Thursday: Southern/Central High Plains... An increase in fire weather conditions is possible midweek across portions of the southern/central High Plains, as strong flow associated with the aforementioned mid-level trough impinges on the area. While warm, dry, and breezy conditions are forecast, uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness (owing to recent rainfall) and a relatively marginal overlap of reduced RH and stronger winds precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 6/Friday - Day 8/Sunday: Southwest into the Great Basin eastward to the High Plains... Forecast model guidance continues to exhibit relatively poor run-to-run and inter-model consistency regarding the evolution of the aforementioned mid-level trough across the western U.S. Day 6/Friday through at least Day 8/Sunday. While increasing fire weather conditions are probable, the probability for Critical fire weather conditions remains less than 40% due to uncertainty regarding the placement and timing of overlapping critical wind, rh, and fuels. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to build across the southwestern U.S. Day 3/Tuesday through Day 6/Friday, as a low-amplitude mid-level trough overspreads portions of the northern Rockies into the High Plains. A potentially stronger/deeper mid-level trough is forecast to move across the western U.S. beginning Day 6/Friday and over the Central U.S. through Day 8/Sunday. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Day 5/Thursday: Southern/Central High Plains... An increase in fire weather conditions is possible midweek across portions of the southern/central High Plains, as strong flow associated with the aforementioned mid-level trough impinges on the area. While warm, dry, and breezy conditions are forecast, uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness (owing to recent rainfall) and a relatively marginal overlap of reduced RH and stronger winds precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 6/Friday - Day 8/Sunday: Southwest into the Great Basin eastward to the High Plains... Forecast model guidance continues to exhibit relatively poor run-to-run and inter-model consistency regarding the evolution of the aforementioned mid-level trough across the western U.S. Day 6/Friday through at least Day 8/Sunday. While increasing fire weather conditions are probable, the probability for Critical fire weather conditions remains less than 40% due to uncertainty regarding the placement and timing of overlapping critical wind, rh, and fuels. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to build across the southwestern U.S. Day 3/Tuesday through Day 6/Friday, as a low-amplitude mid-level trough overspreads portions of the northern Rockies into the High Plains. A potentially stronger/deeper mid-level trough is forecast to move across the western U.S. beginning Day 6/Friday and over the Central U.S. through Day 8/Sunday. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Day 5/Thursday: Southern/Central High Plains... An increase in fire weather conditions is possible midweek across portions of the southern/central High Plains, as strong flow associated with the aforementioned mid-level trough impinges on the area. While warm, dry, and breezy conditions are forecast, uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness (owing to recent rainfall) and a relatively marginal overlap of reduced RH and stronger winds precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 6/Friday - Day 8/Sunday: Southwest into the Great Basin eastward to the High Plains... Forecast model guidance continues to exhibit relatively poor run-to-run and inter-model consistency regarding the evolution of the aforementioned mid-level trough across the western U.S. Day 6/Friday through at least Day 8/Sunday. While increasing fire weather conditions are probable, the probability for Critical fire weather conditions remains less than 40% due to uncertainty regarding the placement and timing of overlapping critical wind, rh, and fuels. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0132 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 132 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW MOB TO 35 NW GZH TO 20 SSE AUO TO 30 SE ATL TO 30 E ATL TO 25 ESE AHN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0428 ..LYONS..04/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 132 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-005-011-013-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-097-099- 109-113-062140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON MOBILE MONROE PIKE RUSSELL FLC033-091-113-062140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GAC021-035-053-079-145-159-169-171-193-197-207-211-215-217-225- Read more