Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible today across parts of northern Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Positively titled upper troughing currently extends from Ontario through central Mexico, with a shortwave trough embedded within this larger trough from the Ozark Plateau through central Mexico. Strong mid-level flow exists throughout the eastern periphery of the parent troughing, with a jet max of 90+ kt at 500 mb extending from the Mid-South into New England. Current surface pattern features a low near the northern TN/NC border intersection, with another weaker low farther south near the ATL vicinity. A modest cold front extends between these two lows, becoming a bit more defined south of the second low due to outflow augmentation from the ongoing storms. A warm front also extend eastward from the northern low across southern VA. The southern shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, moving across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast states before losing amplitude amid the more confluent flow across the Carolinas. The primary surface low is expected to move east-northeastward, with the cold front making steady eastward progress. ...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/Carolinas... Airmass downstream of the ongoing convective line is currently characterized by mostly mid 60s dewpoints, although some low 70s exists across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle. This low-level moisture is supporting modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse rates. Some strengthening of the storms within the line has been noted over the past hour as it interacts with a narrow corridor of 70s dewpoints across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle. Bowing segments and embedded rotation has been observed briefly as updraft intensity modulates. Given that these higher dewpoints exist in a relatively narrow corridor, the threat for damaging gusts and/or brief tornadoes is expected to remain short-lived this morning. Modest buoyancy is expected downstream of the cold front throughout the day, with daytime heating helping to maintain this buoyancy farther eastward into southeast GA and southern SC where lower dewpoints are anticipated. In addition to this buoyancy, large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to strengthen as well, both from the approaching shortwave trough and favorable proximity within the right entrance region of the strengthening mid-level flow. Moderate to strong low-level southwesterly flow will persist throughout the day. All of these factors suggest the ongoing convective line should be maintained as it moves eastward throughout the day, with some additional strengthening and organization possible, particularly if daytime heating does not overly mix the boundary layer. Deeper convection is expected to expand northward along the front moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear mode will likely be maintained, with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggest some tornado potential exists as well. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible today across parts of northern Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Positively titled upper troughing currently extends from Ontario through central Mexico, with a shortwave trough embedded within this larger trough from the Ozark Plateau through central Mexico. Strong mid-level flow exists throughout the eastern periphery of the parent troughing, with a jet max of 90+ kt at 500 mb extending from the Mid-South into New England. Current surface pattern features a low near the northern TN/NC border intersection, with another weaker low farther south near the ATL vicinity. A modest cold front extends between these two lows, becoming a bit more defined south of the second low due to outflow augmentation from the ongoing storms. A warm front also extend eastward from the northern low across southern VA. The southern shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, moving across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast states before losing amplitude amid the more confluent flow across the Carolinas. The primary surface low is expected to move east-northeastward, with the cold front making steady eastward progress. ...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/Carolinas... Airmass downstream of the ongoing convective line is currently characterized by mostly mid 60s dewpoints, although some low 70s exists across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle. This low-level moisture is supporting modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse rates. Some strengthening of the storms within the line has been noted over the past hour as it interacts with a narrow corridor of 70s dewpoints across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle. Bowing segments and embedded rotation has been observed briefly as updraft intensity modulates. Given that these higher dewpoints exist in a relatively narrow corridor, the threat for damaging gusts and/or brief tornadoes is expected to remain short-lived this morning. Modest buoyancy is expected downstream of the cold front throughout the day, with daytime heating helping to maintain this buoyancy farther eastward into southeast GA and southern SC where lower dewpoints are anticipated. In addition to this buoyancy, large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to strengthen as well, both from the approaching shortwave trough and favorable proximity within the right entrance region of the strengthening mid-level flow. Moderate to strong low-level southwesterly flow will persist throughout the day. All of these factors suggest the ongoing convective line should be maintained as it moves eastward throughout the day, with some additional strengthening and organization possible, particularly if daytime heating does not overly mix the boundary layer. Deeper convection is expected to expand northward along the front moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear mode will likely be maintained, with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggest some tornado potential exists as well. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible today across parts of northern Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Positively titled upper troughing currently extends from Ontario through central Mexico, with a shortwave trough embedded within this larger trough from the Ozark Plateau through central Mexico. Strong mid-level flow exists throughout the eastern periphery of the parent troughing, with a jet max of 90+ kt at 500 mb extending from the Mid-South into New England. Current surface pattern features a low near the northern TN/NC border intersection, with another weaker low farther south near the ATL vicinity. A modest cold front extends between these two lows, becoming a bit more defined south of the second low due to outflow augmentation from the ongoing storms. A warm front also extend eastward from the northern low across southern VA. The southern shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, moving across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast states before losing amplitude amid the more confluent flow across the Carolinas. The primary surface low is expected to move east-northeastward, with the cold front making steady eastward progress. ...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/Carolinas... Airmass downstream of the ongoing convective line is currently characterized by mostly mid 60s dewpoints, although some low 70s exists across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle. This low-level moisture is supporting modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse rates. Some strengthening of the storms within the line has been noted over the past hour as it interacts with a narrow corridor of 70s dewpoints across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle. Bowing segments and embedded rotation has been observed briefly as updraft intensity modulates. Given that these higher dewpoints exist in a relatively narrow corridor, the threat for damaging gusts and/or brief tornadoes is expected to remain short-lived this morning. Modest buoyancy is expected downstream of the cold front throughout the day, with daytime heating helping to maintain this buoyancy farther eastward into southeast GA and southern SC where lower dewpoints are anticipated. In addition to this buoyancy, large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to strengthen as well, both from the approaching shortwave trough and favorable proximity within the right entrance region of the strengthening mid-level flow. Moderate to strong low-level southwesterly flow will persist throughout the day. All of these factors suggest the ongoing convective line should be maintained as it moves eastward throughout the day, with some additional strengthening and organization possible, particularly if daytime heating does not overly mix the boundary layer. Deeper convection is expected to expand northward along the front moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear mode will likely be maintained, with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggest some tornado potential exists as well. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible today across parts of northern Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Positively titled upper troughing currently extends from Ontario through central Mexico, with a shortwave trough embedded within this larger trough from the Ozark Plateau through central Mexico. Strong mid-level flow exists throughout the eastern periphery of the parent troughing, with a jet max of 90+ kt at 500 mb extending from the Mid-South into New England. Current surface pattern features a low near the northern TN/NC border intersection, with another weaker low farther south near the ATL vicinity. A modest cold front extends between these two lows, becoming a bit more defined south of the second low due to outflow augmentation from the ongoing storms. A warm front also extend eastward from the northern low across southern VA. The southern shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, moving across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast states before losing amplitude amid the more confluent flow across the Carolinas. The primary surface low is expected to move east-northeastward, with the cold front making steady eastward progress. ...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/Carolinas... Airmass downstream of the ongoing convective line is currently characterized by mostly mid 60s dewpoints, although some low 70s exists across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle. This low-level moisture is supporting modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse rates. Some strengthening of the storms within the line has been noted over the past hour as it interacts with a narrow corridor of 70s dewpoints across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle. Bowing segments and embedded rotation has been observed briefly as updraft intensity modulates. Given that these higher dewpoints exist in a relatively narrow corridor, the threat for damaging gusts and/or brief tornadoes is expected to remain short-lived this morning. Modest buoyancy is expected downstream of the cold front throughout the day, with daytime heating helping to maintain this buoyancy farther eastward into southeast GA and southern SC where lower dewpoints are anticipated. In addition to this buoyancy, large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to strengthen as well, both from the approaching shortwave trough and favorable proximity within the right entrance region of the strengthening mid-level flow. Moderate to strong low-level southwesterly flow will persist throughout the day. All of these factors suggest the ongoing convective line should be maintained as it moves eastward throughout the day, with some additional strengthening and organization possible, particularly if daytime heating does not overly mix the boundary layer. Deeper convection is expected to expand northward along the front moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear mode will likely be maintained, with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggest some tornado potential exists as well. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible today across parts of northern Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Positively titled upper troughing currently extends from Ontario through central Mexico, with a shortwave trough embedded within this larger trough from the Ozark Plateau through central Mexico. Strong mid-level flow exists throughout the eastern periphery of the parent troughing, with a jet max of 90+ kt at 500 mb extending from the Mid-South into New England. Current surface pattern features a low near the northern TN/NC border intersection, with another weaker low farther south near the ATL vicinity. A modest cold front extends between these two lows, becoming a bit more defined south of the second low due to outflow augmentation from the ongoing storms. A warm front also extend eastward from the northern low across southern VA. The southern shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, moving across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast states before losing amplitude amid the more confluent flow across the Carolinas. The primary surface low is expected to move east-northeastward, with the cold front making steady eastward progress. ...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/Carolinas... Airmass downstream of the ongoing convective line is currently characterized by mostly mid 60s dewpoints, although some low 70s exists across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle. This low-level moisture is supporting modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse rates. Some strengthening of the storms within the line has been noted over the past hour as it interacts with a narrow corridor of 70s dewpoints across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle. Bowing segments and embedded rotation has been observed briefly as updraft intensity modulates. Given that these higher dewpoints exist in a relatively narrow corridor, the threat for damaging gusts and/or brief tornadoes is expected to remain short-lived this morning. Modest buoyancy is expected downstream of the cold front throughout the day, with daytime heating helping to maintain this buoyancy farther eastward into southeast GA and southern SC where lower dewpoints are anticipated. In addition to this buoyancy, large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to strengthen as well, both from the approaching shortwave trough and favorable proximity within the right entrance region of the strengthening mid-level flow. Moderate to strong low-level southwesterly flow will persist throughout the day. All of these factors suggest the ongoing convective line should be maintained as it moves eastward throughout the day, with some additional strengthening and organization possible, particularly if daytime heating does not overly mix the boundary layer. Deeper convection is expected to expand northward along the front moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear mode will likely be maintained, with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggest some tornado potential exists as well. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible today across parts of northern Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Positively titled upper troughing currently extends from Ontario through central Mexico, with a shortwave trough embedded within this larger trough from the Ozark Plateau through central Mexico. Strong mid-level flow exists throughout the eastern periphery of the parent troughing, with a jet max of 90+ kt at 500 mb extending from the Mid-South into New England. Current surface pattern features a low near the northern TN/NC border intersection, with another weaker low farther south near the ATL vicinity. A modest cold front extends between these two lows, becoming a bit more defined south of the second low due to outflow augmentation from the ongoing storms. A warm front also extend eastward from the northern low across southern VA. The southern shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, moving across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast states before losing amplitude amid the more confluent flow across the Carolinas. The primary surface low is expected to move east-northeastward, with the cold front making steady eastward progress. ...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/Carolinas... Airmass downstream of the ongoing convective line is currently characterized by mostly mid 60s dewpoints, although some low 70s exists across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle. This low-level moisture is supporting modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse rates. Some strengthening of the storms within the line has been noted over the past hour as it interacts with a narrow corridor of 70s dewpoints across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle. Bowing segments and embedded rotation has been observed briefly as updraft intensity modulates. Given that these higher dewpoints exist in a relatively narrow corridor, the threat for damaging gusts and/or brief tornadoes is expected to remain short-lived this morning. Modest buoyancy is expected downstream of the cold front throughout the day, with daytime heating helping to maintain this buoyancy farther eastward into southeast GA and southern SC where lower dewpoints are anticipated. In addition to this buoyancy, large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to strengthen as well, both from the approaching shortwave trough and favorable proximity within the right entrance region of the strengthening mid-level flow. Moderate to strong low-level southwesterly flow will persist throughout the day. All of these factors suggest the ongoing convective line should be maintained as it moves eastward throughout the day, with some additional strengthening and organization possible, particularly if daytime heating does not overly mix the boundary layer. Deeper convection is expected to expand northward along the front moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear mode will likely be maintained, with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggest some tornado potential exists as well. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible today across parts of northern Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Positively titled upper troughing currently extends from Ontario through central Mexico, with a shortwave trough embedded within this larger trough from the Ozark Plateau through central Mexico. Strong mid-level flow exists throughout the eastern periphery of the parent troughing, with a jet max of 90+ kt at 500 mb extending from the Mid-South into New England. Current surface pattern features a low near the northern TN/NC border intersection, with another weaker low farther south near the ATL vicinity. A modest cold front extends between these two lows, becoming a bit more defined south of the second low due to outflow augmentation from the ongoing storms. A warm front also extend eastward from the northern low across southern VA. The southern shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, moving across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast states before losing amplitude amid the more confluent flow across the Carolinas. The primary surface low is expected to move east-northeastward, with the cold front making steady eastward progress. ...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/Carolinas... Airmass downstream of the ongoing convective line is currently characterized by mostly mid 60s dewpoints, although some low 70s exists across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle. This low-level moisture is supporting modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse rates. Some strengthening of the storms within the line has been noted over the past hour as it interacts with a narrow corridor of 70s dewpoints across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle. Bowing segments and embedded rotation has been observed briefly as updraft intensity modulates. Given that these higher dewpoints exist in a relatively narrow corridor, the threat for damaging gusts and/or brief tornadoes is expected to remain short-lived this morning. Modest buoyancy is expected downstream of the cold front throughout the day, with daytime heating helping to maintain this buoyancy farther eastward into southeast GA and southern SC where lower dewpoints are anticipated. In addition to this buoyancy, large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to strengthen as well, both from the approaching shortwave trough and favorable proximity within the right entrance region of the strengthening mid-level flow. Moderate to strong low-level southwesterly flow will persist throughout the day. All of these factors suggest the ongoing convective line should be maintained as it moves eastward throughout the day, with some additional strengthening and organization possible, particularly if daytime heating does not overly mix the boundary layer. Deeper convection is expected to expand northward along the front moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear mode will likely be maintained, with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggest some tornado potential exists as well. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible today across parts of northern Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Positively titled upper troughing currently extends from Ontario through central Mexico, with a shortwave trough embedded within this larger trough from the Ozark Plateau through central Mexico. Strong mid-level flow exists throughout the eastern periphery of the parent troughing, with a jet max of 90+ kt at 500 mb extending from the Mid-South into New England. Current surface pattern features a low near the northern TN/NC border intersection, with another weaker low farther south near the ATL vicinity. A modest cold front extends between these two lows, becoming a bit more defined south of the second low due to outflow augmentation from the ongoing storms. A warm front also extend eastward from the northern low across southern VA. The southern shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, moving across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast states before losing amplitude amid the more confluent flow across the Carolinas. The primary surface low is expected to move east-northeastward, with the cold front making steady eastward progress. ...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/Carolinas... Airmass downstream of the ongoing convective line is currently characterized by mostly mid 60s dewpoints, although some low 70s exists across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle. This low-level moisture is supporting modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse rates. Some strengthening of the storms within the line has been noted over the past hour as it interacts with a narrow corridor of 70s dewpoints across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle. Bowing segments and embedded rotation has been observed briefly as updraft intensity modulates. Given that these higher dewpoints exist in a relatively narrow corridor, the threat for damaging gusts and/or brief tornadoes is expected to remain short-lived this morning. Modest buoyancy is expected downstream of the cold front throughout the day, with daytime heating helping to maintain this buoyancy farther eastward into southeast GA and southern SC where lower dewpoints are anticipated. In addition to this buoyancy, large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to strengthen as well, both from the approaching shortwave trough and favorable proximity within the right entrance region of the strengthening mid-level flow. Moderate to strong low-level southwesterly flow will persist throughout the day. All of these factors suggest the ongoing convective line should be maintained as it moves eastward throughout the day, with some additional strengthening and organization possible, particularly if daytime heating does not overly mix the boundary layer. Deeper convection is expected to expand northward along the front moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear mode will likely be maintained, with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggest some tornado potential exists as well. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/07/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly east-southeastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys on Day 4/Thursday. Ahead of the trough, partially modified Gulf moisture will be returning ahead of a related front moving across the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front across parts of the OH/TN Valleys, where weak buoyancy and strong midlevel westerly flow will support an isolated severe-storm risk. However, the limited low-level moisture and weak/veered low-level flow should limit storm intensity. By Day 5/Friday, the midlevel trough will take on a neutral tilt as it moves slowly eastward and amplifies across the Appalachians. Preceding the trough, strong south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the partially modified Gulf air mass over the coastal Mid-Atlantic -- where isolated severe storms will be possible ahead of a related surface front. Similar to Day 4/Thursday, the overall threat appears too marginal for severe probabilities at this time. ...Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday... A midlevel trough and strong west-southwesterly flow will overspread the northern/central Plains on Day 7/Sunday, and continue across the Midwest/Great Lakes on Day 8/Monday. In response, boundary-layer moisture will return northward ahead of a related lee trough across the southern and central Plains on Day 7/Sunday, though a strong EML should limit thunderstorm potential. By Day 8/Monday, guidance varies considerably on the evolution of the midlevel trough and related warm sector, limiting confidence in overall severe-storm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly east-southeastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys on Day 4/Thursday. Ahead of the trough, partially modified Gulf moisture will be returning ahead of a related front moving across the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front across parts of the OH/TN Valleys, where weak buoyancy and strong midlevel westerly flow will support an isolated severe-storm risk. However, the limited low-level moisture and weak/veered low-level flow should limit storm intensity. By Day 5/Friday, the midlevel trough will take on a neutral tilt as it moves slowly eastward and amplifies across the Appalachians. Preceding the trough, strong south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the partially modified Gulf air mass over the coastal Mid-Atlantic -- where isolated severe storms will be possible ahead of a related surface front. Similar to Day 4/Thursday, the overall threat appears too marginal for severe probabilities at this time. ...Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday... A midlevel trough and strong west-southwesterly flow will overspread the northern/central Plains on Day 7/Sunday, and continue across the Midwest/Great Lakes on Day 8/Monday. In response, boundary-layer moisture will return northward ahead of a related lee trough across the southern and central Plains on Day 7/Sunday, though a strong EML should limit thunderstorm potential. By Day 8/Monday, guidance varies considerably on the evolution of the midlevel trough and related warm sector, limiting confidence in overall severe-storm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly east-southeastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys on Day 4/Thursday. Ahead of the trough, partially modified Gulf moisture will be returning ahead of a related front moving across the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front across parts of the OH/TN Valleys, where weak buoyancy and strong midlevel westerly flow will support an isolated severe-storm risk. However, the limited low-level moisture and weak/veered low-level flow should limit storm intensity. By Day 5/Friday, the midlevel trough will take on a neutral tilt as it moves slowly eastward and amplifies across the Appalachians. Preceding the trough, strong south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the partially modified Gulf air mass over the coastal Mid-Atlantic -- where isolated severe storms will be possible ahead of a related surface front. Similar to Day 4/Thursday, the overall threat appears too marginal for severe probabilities at this time. ...Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday... A midlevel trough and strong west-southwesterly flow will overspread the northern/central Plains on Day 7/Sunday, and continue across the Midwest/Great Lakes on Day 8/Monday. In response, boundary-layer moisture will return northward ahead of a related lee trough across the southern and central Plains on Day 7/Sunday, though a strong EML should limit thunderstorm potential. By Day 8/Monday, guidance varies considerably on the evolution of the midlevel trough and related warm sector, limiting confidence in overall severe-storm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly east-southeastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys on Day 4/Thursday. Ahead of the trough, partially modified Gulf moisture will be returning ahead of a related front moving across the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front across parts of the OH/TN Valleys, where weak buoyancy and strong midlevel westerly flow will support an isolated severe-storm risk. However, the limited low-level moisture and weak/veered low-level flow should limit storm intensity. By Day 5/Friday, the midlevel trough will take on a neutral tilt as it moves slowly eastward and amplifies across the Appalachians. Preceding the trough, strong south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the partially modified Gulf air mass over the coastal Mid-Atlantic -- where isolated severe storms will be possible ahead of a related surface front. Similar to Day 4/Thursday, the overall threat appears too marginal for severe probabilities at this time. ...Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday... A midlevel trough and strong west-southwesterly flow will overspread the northern/central Plains on Day 7/Sunday, and continue across the Midwest/Great Lakes on Day 8/Monday. In response, boundary-layer moisture will return northward ahead of a related lee trough across the southern and central Plains on Day 7/Sunday, though a strong EML should limit thunderstorm potential. By Day 8/Monday, guidance varies considerably on the evolution of the midlevel trough and related warm sector, limiting confidence in overall severe-storm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly east-southeastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys on Day 4/Thursday. Ahead of the trough, partially modified Gulf moisture will be returning ahead of a related front moving across the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front across parts of the OH/TN Valleys, where weak buoyancy and strong midlevel westerly flow will support an isolated severe-storm risk. However, the limited low-level moisture and weak/veered low-level flow should limit storm intensity. By Day 5/Friday, the midlevel trough will take on a neutral tilt as it moves slowly eastward and amplifies across the Appalachians. Preceding the trough, strong south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the partially modified Gulf air mass over the coastal Mid-Atlantic -- where isolated severe storms will be possible ahead of a related surface front. Similar to Day 4/Thursday, the overall threat appears too marginal for severe probabilities at this time. ...Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday... A midlevel trough and strong west-southwesterly flow will overspread the northern/central Plains on Day 7/Sunday, and continue across the Midwest/Great Lakes on Day 8/Monday. In response, boundary-layer moisture will return northward ahead of a related lee trough across the southern and central Plains on Day 7/Sunday, though a strong EML should limit thunderstorm potential. By Day 8/Monday, guidance varies considerably on the evolution of the midlevel trough and related warm sector, limiting confidence in overall severe-storm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly east-southeastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys on Day 4/Thursday. Ahead of the trough, partially modified Gulf moisture will be returning ahead of a related front moving across the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front across parts of the OH/TN Valleys, where weak buoyancy and strong midlevel westerly flow will support an isolated severe-storm risk. However, the limited low-level moisture and weak/veered low-level flow should limit storm intensity. By Day 5/Friday, the midlevel trough will take on a neutral tilt as it moves slowly eastward and amplifies across the Appalachians. Preceding the trough, strong south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the partially modified Gulf air mass over the coastal Mid-Atlantic -- where isolated severe storms will be possible ahead of a related surface front. Similar to Day 4/Thursday, the overall threat appears too marginal for severe probabilities at this time. ...Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday... A midlevel trough and strong west-southwesterly flow will overspread the northern/central Plains on Day 7/Sunday, and continue across the Midwest/Great Lakes on Day 8/Monday. In response, boundary-layer moisture will return northward ahead of a related lee trough across the southern and central Plains on Day 7/Sunday, though a strong EML should limit thunderstorm potential. By Day 8/Monday, guidance varies considerably on the evolution of the midlevel trough and related warm sector, limiting confidence in overall severe-storm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly east-southeastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys on Day 4/Thursday. Ahead of the trough, partially modified Gulf moisture will be returning ahead of a related front moving across the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front across parts of the OH/TN Valleys, where weak buoyancy and strong midlevel westerly flow will support an isolated severe-storm risk. However, the limited low-level moisture and weak/veered low-level flow should limit storm intensity. By Day 5/Friday, the midlevel trough will take on a neutral tilt as it moves slowly eastward and amplifies across the Appalachians. Preceding the trough, strong south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the partially modified Gulf air mass over the coastal Mid-Atlantic -- where isolated severe storms will be possible ahead of a related surface front. Similar to Day 4/Thursday, the overall threat appears too marginal for severe probabilities at this time. ...Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday... A midlevel trough and strong west-southwesterly flow will overspread the northern/central Plains on Day 7/Sunday, and continue across the Midwest/Great Lakes on Day 8/Monday. In response, boundary-layer moisture will return northward ahead of a related lee trough across the southern and central Plains on Day 7/Sunday, though a strong EML should limit thunderstorm potential. By Day 8/Monday, guidance varies considerably on the evolution of the midlevel trough and related warm sector, limiting confidence in overall severe-storm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly east-southeastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys on Day 4/Thursday. Ahead of the trough, partially modified Gulf moisture will be returning ahead of a related front moving across the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front across parts of the OH/TN Valleys, where weak buoyancy and strong midlevel westerly flow will support an isolated severe-storm risk. However, the limited low-level moisture and weak/veered low-level flow should limit storm intensity. By Day 5/Friday, the midlevel trough will take on a neutral tilt as it moves slowly eastward and amplifies across the Appalachians. Preceding the trough, strong south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the partially modified Gulf air mass over the coastal Mid-Atlantic -- where isolated severe storms will be possible ahead of a related surface front. Similar to Day 4/Thursday, the overall threat appears too marginal for severe probabilities at this time. ...Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday... A midlevel trough and strong west-southwesterly flow will overspread the northern/central Plains on Day 7/Sunday, and continue across the Midwest/Great Lakes on Day 8/Monday. In response, boundary-layer moisture will return northward ahead of a related lee trough across the southern and central Plains on Day 7/Sunday, though a strong EML should limit thunderstorm potential. By Day 8/Monday, guidance varies considerably on the evolution of the midlevel trough and related warm sector, limiting confidence in overall severe-storm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly east-southeastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys on Day 4/Thursday. Ahead of the trough, partially modified Gulf moisture will be returning ahead of a related front moving across the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front across parts of the OH/TN Valleys, where weak buoyancy and strong midlevel westerly flow will support an isolated severe-storm risk. However, the limited low-level moisture and weak/veered low-level flow should limit storm intensity. By Day 5/Friday, the midlevel trough will take on a neutral tilt as it moves slowly eastward and amplifies across the Appalachians. Preceding the trough, strong south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the partially modified Gulf air mass over the coastal Mid-Atlantic -- where isolated severe storms will be possible ahead of a related surface front. Similar to Day 4/Thursday, the overall threat appears too marginal for severe probabilities at this time. ...Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday... A midlevel trough and strong west-southwesterly flow will overspread the northern/central Plains on Day 7/Sunday, and continue across the Midwest/Great Lakes on Day 8/Monday. In response, boundary-layer moisture will return northward ahead of a related lee trough across the southern and central Plains on Day 7/Sunday, though a strong EML should limit thunderstorm potential. By Day 8/Monday, guidance varies considerably on the evolution of the midlevel trough and related warm sector, limiting confidence in overall severe-storm potential. Read more

MD 0432 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE FL PNHDL...SERN AL...SWRN GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0432 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Areas affected...parts of the FL PNHDL...sern AL...swrn GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 070713Z - 070945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The potential for briefly intensifying storms posing the risk for a tornado or locally strong surface gusts likely will continue into the 3-5 AM CDT time frame. The risk still appears low and isolated enough that a severe weather watch is not necessary, but trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...There has been little change during the past few hours, despite the continuing presence of capping layers aloft, convection persists along a slow moving front and a pre-frontal wind confluence zone slowly shifting eastward across southeastern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. There remain continuing attempts at more discrete deep convective development ahead of the low-level confluence zone, which currently appears to narrowly precede the surface front across areas near/west of Fort Walton Beach, before intersection the front (or conglomerate outflow) near/northeast of Crestview. Embedded within a narrow pre-frontal plume of seasonably moist boundary-layer air (including surface dew points around 70 F, and characterized by CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg), and strong shear (including sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs beneath 30-40 kt southerly flow around 850 mb), weak rotation remains evident within cells along and ahead of the confluent zone. It appears that this may be coinciding with a weak frontal wave developing inland, northeastward across southeastern Alabama, during the next few hours. And potential for one or two of these vortices to briefly intensify to tornadic strength probably will continue across the Panama City FL and Dothan AL into Albany GA vicinities through 09-11Z. ..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... LAT...LON 29788721 31098612 31318566 31808492 31178478 29918549 29418643 29788721 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the the Middle Mississippi Valley and northern High Plains, though organized severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An amplifying/intensifying midlevel trough will track southeastward from the northern Plains toward the Lower Ohio Valley through the period. A related surface cyclone will advance eastward from the central Plains to the Lower Great Lakes, while a trailing cold front moves eastward across the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough and surface cyclone, low-level moisture will be limited, though cold midlevel temperatures/steep midlevel lapse rates will result in weak instability. Given strengthening DCVA and low-level warm advection, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible, with a focus over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time. Farther west, steep deep-layer lapse rates will contribute to weak buoyancy over the northern High Plains, where ascent in the left-exit region of an upper jet will promote isolated thunderstorms. ..Weinman.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the the Middle Mississippi Valley and northern High Plains, though organized severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An amplifying/intensifying midlevel trough will track southeastward from the northern Plains toward the Lower Ohio Valley through the period. A related surface cyclone will advance eastward from the central Plains to the Lower Great Lakes, while a trailing cold front moves eastward across the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough and surface cyclone, low-level moisture will be limited, though cold midlevel temperatures/steep midlevel lapse rates will result in weak instability. Given strengthening DCVA and low-level warm advection, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible, with a focus over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time. Farther west, steep deep-layer lapse rates will contribute to weak buoyancy over the northern High Plains, where ascent in the left-exit region of an upper jet will promote isolated thunderstorms. ..Weinman.. 04/07/2025 Read more