Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Gusty southwest winds across central Florida are still expected ahead of a cold front through this afternoon across portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Several days of preceding dry and warm conditions have allowed somewhat more receptive fuels for wildfire spread. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging builds in over the Southwest, supporting a cold front moving offshore as surface lee troughing develops along the High Plains. Across the Florida Peninsula, the passage of the cold front will support 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds as RH drops to 35-45 percent during the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this region given the presence of fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Gusty southwest winds across central Florida are still expected ahead of a cold front through this afternoon across portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Several days of preceding dry and warm conditions have allowed somewhat more receptive fuels for wildfire spread. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging builds in over the Southwest, supporting a cold front moving offshore as surface lee troughing develops along the High Plains. Across the Florida Peninsula, the passage of the cold front will support 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds as RH drops to 35-45 percent during the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this region given the presence of fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Gusty southwest winds across central Florida are still expected ahead of a cold front through this afternoon across portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Several days of preceding dry and warm conditions have allowed somewhat more receptive fuels for wildfire spread. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging builds in over the Southwest, supporting a cold front moving offshore as surface lee troughing develops along the High Plains. Across the Florida Peninsula, the passage of the cold front will support 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds as RH drops to 35-45 percent during the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this region given the presence of fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Gusty southwest winds across central Florida are still expected ahead of a cold front through this afternoon across portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Several days of preceding dry and warm conditions have allowed somewhat more receptive fuels for wildfire spread. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging builds in over the Southwest, supporting a cold front moving offshore as surface lee troughing develops along the High Plains. Across the Florida Peninsula, the passage of the cold front will support 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds as RH drops to 35-45 percent during the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this region given the presence of fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Gusty southwest winds across central Florida are still expected ahead of a cold front through this afternoon across portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Several days of preceding dry and warm conditions have allowed somewhat more receptive fuels for wildfire spread. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging builds in over the Southwest, supporting a cold front moving offshore as surface lee troughing develops along the High Plains. Across the Florida Peninsula, the passage of the cold front will support 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds as RH drops to 35-45 percent during the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this region given the presence of fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Gusty southwest winds across central Florida are still expected ahead of a cold front through this afternoon across portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Several days of preceding dry and warm conditions have allowed somewhat more receptive fuels for wildfire spread. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging builds in over the Southwest, supporting a cold front moving offshore as surface lee troughing develops along the High Plains. Across the Florida Peninsula, the passage of the cold front will support 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds as RH drops to 35-45 percent during the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this region given the presence of fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Gusty southwest winds across central Florida are still expected ahead of a cold front through this afternoon across portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Several days of preceding dry and warm conditions have allowed somewhat more receptive fuels for wildfire spread. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging builds in over the Southwest, supporting a cold front moving offshore as surface lee troughing develops along the High Plains. Across the Florida Peninsula, the passage of the cold front will support 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds as RH drops to 35-45 percent during the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this region given the presence of fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Gusty southwest winds across central Florida are still expected ahead of a cold front through this afternoon across portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Several days of preceding dry and warm conditions have allowed somewhat more receptive fuels for wildfire spread. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging builds in over the Southwest, supporting a cold front moving offshore as surface lee troughing develops along the High Plains. Across the Florida Peninsula, the passage of the cold front will support 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds as RH drops to 35-45 percent during the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this region given the presence of fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Gusty southwest winds across central Florida are still expected ahead of a cold front through this afternoon across portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Several days of preceding dry and warm conditions have allowed somewhat more receptive fuels for wildfire spread. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging builds in over the Southwest, supporting a cold front moving offshore as surface lee troughing develops along the High Plains. Across the Florida Peninsula, the passage of the cold front will support 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds as RH drops to 35-45 percent during the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this region given the presence of fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Gusty southwest winds across central Florida are still expected ahead of a cold front through this afternoon across portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Several days of preceding dry and warm conditions have allowed somewhat more receptive fuels for wildfire spread. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging builds in over the Southwest, supporting a cold front moving offshore as surface lee troughing develops along the High Plains. Across the Florida Peninsula, the passage of the cold front will support 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds as RH drops to 35-45 percent during the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this region given the presence of fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Gusty southwest winds across central Florida are still expected ahead of a cold front through this afternoon across portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Several days of preceding dry and warm conditions have allowed somewhat more receptive fuels for wildfire spread. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging builds in over the Southwest, supporting a cold front moving offshore as surface lee troughing develops along the High Plains. Across the Florida Peninsula, the passage of the cold front will support 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds as RH drops to 35-45 percent during the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this region given the presence of fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Gusty southwest winds across central Florida are still expected ahead of a cold front through this afternoon across portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Several days of preceding dry and warm conditions have allowed somewhat more receptive fuels for wildfire spread. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging builds in over the Southwest, supporting a cold front moving offshore as surface lee troughing develops along the High Plains. Across the Florida Peninsula, the passage of the cold front will support 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds as RH drops to 35-45 percent during the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this region given the presence of fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Gusty southwest winds across central Florida are still expected ahead of a cold front through this afternoon across portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Several days of preceding dry and warm conditions have allowed somewhat more receptive fuels for wildfire spread. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging builds in over the Southwest, supporting a cold front moving offshore as surface lee troughing develops along the High Plains. Across the Florida Peninsula, the passage of the cold front will support 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds as RH drops to 35-45 percent during the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this region given the presence of fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Gusty southwest winds across central Florida are still expected ahead of a cold front through this afternoon across portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Several days of preceding dry and warm conditions have allowed somewhat more receptive fuels for wildfire spread. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging builds in over the Southwest, supporting a cold front moving offshore as surface lee troughing develops along the High Plains. Across the Florida Peninsula, the passage of the cold front will support 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds as RH drops to 35-45 percent during the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this region given the presence of fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Gusty southwest winds across central Florida are still expected ahead of a cold front through this afternoon across portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Several days of preceding dry and warm conditions have allowed somewhat more receptive fuels for wildfire spread. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging builds in over the Southwest, supporting a cold front moving offshore as surface lee troughing develops along the High Plains. Across the Florida Peninsula, the passage of the cold front will support 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds as RH drops to 35-45 percent during the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this region given the presence of fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0133 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0133 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0133 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0133 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0433 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SWRN THROUGH E CNTRL GA...WRN AND CNTRL SC
Mesoscale Discussion 0433 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Areas affected...parts of swrn through e cntrl GA...wrn and cntrl SC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071240Z - 071445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...At least low probabilities for an additional tornado or two and/or locally damaging surface gusts continues in scattered thunderstorm activity overspread the region through 10-11 AM EDT. It is still not clear that a severe weather watch is needed in the near term, but trends will continue to be monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...Stronger boundary-layer instability, characterized by CAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, still remains confined to a narrow pre-frontal corridor across the western Florida Panhandle through southwestern into southern portions of central GA. However, some cooling loft appears to be contributing to at least weak destabilization north-northeastward toward the South Carolina Piedmont. The front, with a couple of weak waves along it, will continue a slow eastward progression through mid to late morning, with the Rapid Refresh indicating that a moderate south-southwesterly low-level jet (in excess of 40 kt around 850 mb) will maintain sizable, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs within the instability axis. Cloud cover spreading downstream of the stronger ongoing convective development probably will slow boundary-layer destabilization, and it is not certain that there will be a substantive further increase in thunderstorm intensities in the near term. However, the MCV, which apparently recently contributed to a tornado south-southwest of the Greater Atlanta area, continues east-northeastward toward the South Carolina Piedmont, and it not clear that the downstream environment will not support an additional relatively short-lived tornado or two. Farther south, in the corridor of better instability, focused along the low-level jet axis near/north and east of the Albany into Macon vicinities, there may also be continuing potential for short-lived intensification of meso-vortices embedded with the ongoing narrow band of convection. ..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 32118371 32698381 33708337 34688218 33778104 30448443 30508493 32118371 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 7 14:00:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible today across parts of northern Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Positively titled upper troughing currently extends from Ontario through central Mexico, with a shortwave trough embedded within this larger trough from the Ozark Plateau through central Mexico. Strong mid-level flow exists throughout the eastern periphery of the parent troughing, with a jet max of 90+ kt at 500 mb extending from the Mid-South into New England. Current surface pattern features a low near the northern TN/NC border intersection, with another weaker low farther south near the ATL vicinity. A modest cold front extends between these two lows, becoming a bit more defined south of the second low due to outflow augmentation from the ongoing storms. A warm front also extend eastward from the northern low across southern VA. The southern shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, moving across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast states before losing amplitude amid the more confluent flow across the Carolinas. The primary surface low is expected to move east-northeastward, with the cold front making steady eastward progress. ...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/Carolinas... Airmass downstream of the ongoing convective line is currently characterized by mostly mid 60s dewpoints, although some low 70s exists across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle. This low-level moisture is supporting modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse rates. Some strengthening of the storms within the line has been noted over the past hour as it interacts with a narrow corridor of 70s dewpoints across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle. Bowing segments and embedded rotation has been observed briefly as updraft intensity modulates. Given that these higher dewpoints exist in a relatively narrow corridor, the threat for damaging gusts and/or brief tornadoes is expected to remain short-lived this morning. Modest buoyancy is expected downstream of the cold front throughout the day, with daytime heating helping to maintain this buoyancy farther eastward into southeast GA and southern SC where lower dewpoints are anticipated. In addition to this buoyancy, large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to strengthen as well, both from the approaching shortwave trough and favorable proximity within the right entrance region of the strengthening mid-level flow. Moderate to strong low-level southwesterly flow will persist throughout the day. All of these factors suggest the ongoing convective line should be maintained as it moves eastward throughout the day, with some additional strengthening and organization possible, particularly if daytime heating does not overly mix the boundary layer. Deeper convection is expected to expand northward along the front moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear mode will likely be maintained, with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggest some tornado potential exists as well. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/07/2025 Read more