Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Mississippi Valley into the East Coast by Tuesday morning. Some intensification of the mid-level jet is expected as it moves from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a weak surface low in the southern Appalachians will deepen as the jet intensifies. This feature will move through western North Carolina and along the North Carolina/Virginia border during the morning/early afternoon. An east-west warm front will accompany the surface low with a cold front extending southwestward into Georgia/North Florida. The cold front will be nearly offshore by late afternoon. ...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/South Carolina... Convection is likely to be ongoing Monday morning in parts of the Southeast and the Florida Panhandle. This activity along the front will progress eastward along with the upper trough. The low-level jet is expected to shift northeastward with time. It is possible that most favorable low-level shear/tornado environment will exist when convection is diurnally weak. That being said, 850 mb winds will still remain moderately strong even into the afternoon. Heating ahead of the convection (promoting around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) may help to reinvigorate it. Effective shear, parallel to the cold front, will be 40-45 kts. Organized storms will likely be mostly linear in character with perhaps embedded supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two would be possible. Poor mid-level lapse rates should mitigate large hail potential, particularly with the expected linear storm modes. ...North Carolina into far southeast Virginia... Along with similarly poor mid-level lapse rates as farther south, stronger warm air advection into warm frontal zone suggests greater potential for early day precipitation and cloud cover. Even so, the track of the surface low may allow rich moisture to remain in northern North Carolina into far southern Virginia. While limited destabilization will most likely keep the threat for isolated wind damage and a brief tornado marginal, the low-level jet will be stronger with northward extent and helicity will be enhanced near the warm front. If greater heating can occur, there a small corridor of higher tornado potential could exist. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Mississippi Valley into the East Coast by Tuesday morning. Some intensification of the mid-level jet is expected as it moves from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a weak surface low in the southern Appalachians will deepen as the jet intensifies. This feature will move through western North Carolina and along the North Carolina/Virginia border during the morning/early afternoon. An east-west warm front will accompany the surface low with a cold front extending southwestward into Georgia/North Florida. The cold front will be nearly offshore by late afternoon. ...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/South Carolina... Convection is likely to be ongoing Monday morning in parts of the Southeast and the Florida Panhandle. This activity along the front will progress eastward along with the upper trough. The low-level jet is expected to shift northeastward with time. It is possible that most favorable low-level shear/tornado environment will exist when convection is diurnally weak. That being said, 850 mb winds will still remain moderately strong even into the afternoon. Heating ahead of the convection (promoting around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) may help to reinvigorate it. Effective shear, parallel to the cold front, will be 40-45 kts. Organized storms will likely be mostly linear in character with perhaps embedded supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two would be possible. Poor mid-level lapse rates should mitigate large hail potential, particularly with the expected linear storm modes. ...North Carolina into far southeast Virginia... Along with similarly poor mid-level lapse rates as farther south, stronger warm air advection into warm frontal zone suggests greater potential for early day precipitation and cloud cover. Even so, the track of the surface low may allow rich moisture to remain in northern North Carolina into far southern Virginia. While limited destabilization will most likely keep the threat for isolated wind damage and a brief tornado marginal, the low-level jet will be stronger with northward extent and helicity will be enhanced near the warm front. If greater heating can occur, there a small corridor of higher tornado potential could exist. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Mississippi Valley into the East Coast by Tuesday morning. Some intensification of the mid-level jet is expected as it moves from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a weak surface low in the southern Appalachians will deepen as the jet intensifies. This feature will move through western North Carolina and along the North Carolina/Virginia border during the morning/early afternoon. An east-west warm front will accompany the surface low with a cold front extending southwestward into Georgia/North Florida. The cold front will be nearly offshore by late afternoon. ...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/South Carolina... Convection is likely to be ongoing Monday morning in parts of the Southeast and the Florida Panhandle. This activity along the front will progress eastward along with the upper trough. The low-level jet is expected to shift northeastward with time. It is possible that most favorable low-level shear/tornado environment will exist when convection is diurnally weak. That being said, 850 mb winds will still remain moderately strong even into the afternoon. Heating ahead of the convection (promoting around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) may help to reinvigorate it. Effective shear, parallel to the cold front, will be 40-45 kts. Organized storms will likely be mostly linear in character with perhaps embedded supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two would be possible. Poor mid-level lapse rates should mitigate large hail potential, particularly with the expected linear storm modes. ...North Carolina into far southeast Virginia... Along with similarly poor mid-level lapse rates as farther south, stronger warm air advection into warm frontal zone suggests greater potential for early day precipitation and cloud cover. Even so, the track of the surface low may allow rich moisture to remain in northern North Carolina into far southern Virginia. While limited destabilization will most likely keep the threat for isolated wind damage and a brief tornado marginal, the low-level jet will be stronger with northward extent and helicity will be enhanced near the warm front. If greater heating can occur, there a small corridor of higher tornado potential could exist. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will transition toward more zonal flow tomorrow (Tuesday) as surface high pressure overspreads the eastern U.S. and a surface cyclone develops over the central Plains. Isallobaric flow from the cyclone, along with downslope flow, will support Elevated-equivalent surface conditions along portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon. Despite the presence of such dry and breezy conditions, fuel receptiveness is expected to be quite marginal given recent wetting rainfall, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will transition toward more zonal flow tomorrow (Tuesday) as surface high pressure overspreads the eastern U.S. and a surface cyclone develops over the central Plains. Isallobaric flow from the cyclone, along with downslope flow, will support Elevated-equivalent surface conditions along portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon. Despite the presence of such dry and breezy conditions, fuel receptiveness is expected to be quite marginal given recent wetting rainfall, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will transition toward more zonal flow tomorrow (Tuesday) as surface high pressure overspreads the eastern U.S. and a surface cyclone develops over the central Plains. Isallobaric flow from the cyclone, along with downslope flow, will support Elevated-equivalent surface conditions along portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon. Despite the presence of such dry and breezy conditions, fuel receptiveness is expected to be quite marginal given recent wetting rainfall, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will transition toward more zonal flow tomorrow (Tuesday) as surface high pressure overspreads the eastern U.S. and a surface cyclone develops over the central Plains. Isallobaric flow from the cyclone, along with downslope flow, will support Elevated-equivalent surface conditions along portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon. Despite the presence of such dry and breezy conditions, fuel receptiveness is expected to be quite marginal given recent wetting rainfall, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will transition toward more zonal flow tomorrow (Tuesday) as surface high pressure overspreads the eastern U.S. and a surface cyclone develops over the central Plains. Isallobaric flow from the cyclone, along with downslope flow, will support Elevated-equivalent surface conditions along portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon. Despite the presence of such dry and breezy conditions, fuel receptiveness is expected to be quite marginal given recent wetting rainfall, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will transition toward more zonal flow tomorrow (Tuesday) as surface high pressure overspreads the eastern U.S. and a surface cyclone develops over the central Plains. Isallobaric flow from the cyclone, along with downslope flow, will support Elevated-equivalent surface conditions along portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon. Despite the presence of such dry and breezy conditions, fuel receptiveness is expected to be quite marginal given recent wetting rainfall, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will transition toward more zonal flow tomorrow (Tuesday) as surface high pressure overspreads the eastern U.S. and a surface cyclone develops over the central Plains. Isallobaric flow from the cyclone, along with downslope flow, will support Elevated-equivalent surface conditions along portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon. Despite the presence of such dry and breezy conditions, fuel receptiveness is expected to be quite marginal given recent wetting rainfall, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will transition toward more zonal flow tomorrow (Tuesday) as surface high pressure overspreads the eastern U.S. and a surface cyclone develops over the central Plains. Isallobaric flow from the cyclone, along with downslope flow, will support Elevated-equivalent surface conditions along portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon. Despite the presence of such dry and breezy conditions, fuel receptiveness is expected to be quite marginal given recent wetting rainfall, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will transition toward more zonal flow tomorrow (Tuesday) as surface high pressure overspreads the eastern U.S. and a surface cyclone develops over the central Plains. Isallobaric flow from the cyclone, along with downslope flow, will support Elevated-equivalent surface conditions along portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon. Despite the presence of such dry and breezy conditions, fuel receptiveness is expected to be quite marginal given recent wetting rainfall, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0431 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST AL...FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0431 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Areas affected...Southeast AL...FL Panhandle...southwest GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 070314Z - 070545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind and perhaps a tornado remain possible into the early morning hours. DISCUSSION...Widespread convection is ongoing late this evening across parts of south AL into the western FL Panhandle, in response to an approaching mid/upper-level trough, and a persistent southwesterly low-level jet. Several small cells with occasional weak rotation have been noted across southeast AL. These cells may continue to develop within the low-level warm advection regime. Modest MLCAPE and weak midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit updraft strength, but rich boundary-layer moisture and favorable wind profiles (as noted on regional VWPs) will support potential for at least transient supercells, which may be accompanied by the threat of a tornado and/or isolated strong gusts. Farther west, multiple loosely organized clusters have occasionally emerged from regenerative convection near/east of Mobile. Some threat for locally damaging wind and a tornado could develop if any of these clusters can become more organized and sustained as they spread northeastward with time. Watch issuance continues to be considered unlikely, due to the expectation that the severe threat will remain rather isolated, but trends will continue to be monitored for an uptick in coverage of organizing storms. ..Dean/Hart.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 30208582 30188740 30148813 30548794 30988760 31728685 32478598 33038479 32738405 31798446 30698519 30418548 30278566 30208582 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging builds in over the Southwest, supporting a cold front moving offshore as surface lee troughing develops along the High Plains. Across the Florida Peninsula, the passage of the cold front will support 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds as RH drops to 35-45 percent during the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this region given the presence of fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging builds in over the Southwest, supporting a cold front moving offshore as surface lee troughing develops along the High Plains. Across the Florida Peninsula, the passage of the cold front will support 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds as RH drops to 35-45 percent during the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this region given the presence of fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging builds in over the Southwest, supporting a cold front moving offshore as surface lee troughing develops along the High Plains. Across the Florida Peninsula, the passage of the cold front will support 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds as RH drops to 35-45 percent during the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this region given the presence of fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging builds in over the Southwest, supporting a cold front moving offshore as surface lee troughing develops along the High Plains. Across the Florida Peninsula, the passage of the cold front will support 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds as RH drops to 35-45 percent during the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this region given the presence of fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging builds in over the Southwest, supporting a cold front moving offshore as surface lee troughing develops along the High Plains. Across the Florida Peninsula, the passage of the cold front will support 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds as RH drops to 35-45 percent during the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this region given the presence of fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging builds in over the Southwest, supporting a cold front moving offshore as surface lee troughing develops along the High Plains. Across the Florida Peninsula, the passage of the cold front will support 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds as RH drops to 35-45 percent during the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this region given the presence of fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging builds in over the Southwest, supporting a cold front moving offshore as surface lee troughing develops along the High Plains. Across the Florida Peninsula, the passage of the cold front will support 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds as RH drops to 35-45 percent during the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this region given the presence of fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more