Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The Elevated fire weather area was expanded slightly south/southeast across portions of the Florida peninsula based on the latest high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. While minimum RH values are forecast to be only marginally lowered (generally near or greater than 40%), sustained south/southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph (with stronger gusts) overlapping receptive fuels (high KBDI and ERC percentiles) will promote at least a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon/evening. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's (Monday's) fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be moving eastward across parts of the southeast US during the day on Monday with a surface low pressure area pushing a cold front southeastward towards Florida. Flow ahead of this surface front may be relatively strong, with gusts of 25-30 mph and RH in the 35-40% range, though there is some uncertainty on the RH values, given surface parcel trajectories off of the warm ocean. This may provide a limiting factor for the fire weather risk. However, given receptive fuels in the area (near 90th percentile ERCs), have included an Elevated area across parts of the Florida peninsula. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The Elevated fire weather area was expanded slightly south/southeast across portions of the Florida peninsula based on the latest high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. While minimum RH values are forecast to be only marginally lowered (generally near or greater than 40%), sustained south/southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph (with stronger gusts) overlapping receptive fuels (high KBDI and ERC percentiles) will promote at least a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon/evening. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's (Monday's) fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be moving eastward across parts of the southeast US during the day on Monday with a surface low pressure area pushing a cold front southeastward towards Florida. Flow ahead of this surface front may be relatively strong, with gusts of 25-30 mph and RH in the 35-40% range, though there is some uncertainty on the RH values, given surface parcel trajectories off of the warm ocean. This may provide a limiting factor for the fire weather risk. However, given receptive fuels in the area (near 90th percentile ERCs), have included an Elevated area across parts of the Florida peninsula. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The Elevated fire weather area was expanded slightly south/southeast across portions of the Florida peninsula based on the latest high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. While minimum RH values are forecast to be only marginally lowered (generally near or greater than 40%), sustained south/southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph (with stronger gusts) overlapping receptive fuels (high KBDI and ERC percentiles) will promote at least a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon/evening. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's (Monday's) fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be moving eastward across parts of the southeast US during the day on Monday with a surface low pressure area pushing a cold front southeastward towards Florida. Flow ahead of this surface front may be relatively strong, with gusts of 25-30 mph and RH in the 35-40% range, though there is some uncertainty on the RH values, given surface parcel trajectories off of the warm ocean. This may provide a limiting factor for the fire weather risk. However, given receptive fuels in the area (near 90th percentile ERCs), have included an Elevated area across parts of the Florida peninsula. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The Elevated fire weather area was expanded slightly south/southeast across portions of the Florida peninsula based on the latest high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. While minimum RH values are forecast to be only marginally lowered (generally near or greater than 40%), sustained south/southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph (with stronger gusts) overlapping receptive fuels (high KBDI and ERC percentiles) will promote at least a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon/evening. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's (Monday's) fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be moving eastward across parts of the southeast US during the day on Monday with a surface low pressure area pushing a cold front southeastward towards Florida. Flow ahead of this surface front may be relatively strong, with gusts of 25-30 mph and RH in the 35-40% range, though there is some uncertainty on the RH values, given surface parcel trajectories off of the warm ocean. This may provide a limiting factor for the fire weather risk. However, given receptive fuels in the area (near 90th percentile ERCs), have included an Elevated area across parts of the Florida peninsula. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The Elevated fire weather area was expanded slightly south/southeast across portions of the Florida peninsula based on the latest high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. While minimum RH values are forecast to be only marginally lowered (generally near or greater than 40%), sustained south/southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph (with stronger gusts) overlapping receptive fuels (high KBDI and ERC percentiles) will promote at least a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon/evening. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's (Monday's) fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be moving eastward across parts of the southeast US during the day on Monday with a surface low pressure area pushing a cold front southeastward towards Florida. Flow ahead of this surface front may be relatively strong, with gusts of 25-30 mph and RH in the 35-40% range, though there is some uncertainty on the RH values, given surface parcel trajectories off of the warm ocean. This may provide a limiting factor for the fire weather risk. However, given receptive fuels in the area (near 90th percentile ERCs), have included an Elevated area across parts of the Florida peninsula. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The Elevated fire weather area was expanded slightly south/southeast across portions of the Florida peninsula based on the latest high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. While minimum RH values are forecast to be only marginally lowered (generally near or greater than 40%), sustained south/southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph (with stronger gusts) overlapping receptive fuels (high KBDI and ERC percentiles) will promote at least a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon/evening. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's (Monday's) fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be moving eastward across parts of the southeast US during the day on Monday with a surface low pressure area pushing a cold front southeastward towards Florida. Flow ahead of this surface front may be relatively strong, with gusts of 25-30 mph and RH in the 35-40% range, though there is some uncertainty on the RH values, given surface parcel trajectories off of the warm ocean. This may provide a limiting factor for the fire weather risk. However, given receptive fuels in the area (near 90th percentile ERCs), have included an Elevated area across parts of the Florida peninsula. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The Elevated fire weather area was expanded slightly south/southeast across portions of the Florida peninsula based on the latest high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. While minimum RH values are forecast to be only marginally lowered (generally near or greater than 40%), sustained south/southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph (with stronger gusts) overlapping receptive fuels (high KBDI and ERC percentiles) will promote at least a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon/evening. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's (Monday's) fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be moving eastward across parts of the southeast US during the day on Monday with a surface low pressure area pushing a cold front southeastward towards Florida. Flow ahead of this surface front may be relatively strong, with gusts of 25-30 mph and RH in the 35-40% range, though there is some uncertainty on the RH values, given surface parcel trajectories off of the warm ocean. This may provide a limiting factor for the fire weather risk. However, given receptive fuels in the area (near 90th percentile ERCs), have included an Elevated area across parts of the Florida peninsula. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The Elevated fire weather area was expanded slightly south/southeast across portions of the Florida peninsula based on the latest high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. While minimum RH values are forecast to be only marginally lowered (generally near or greater than 40%), sustained south/southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph (with stronger gusts) overlapping receptive fuels (high KBDI and ERC percentiles) will promote at least a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon/evening. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's (Monday's) fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be moving eastward across parts of the southeast US during the day on Monday with a surface low pressure area pushing a cold front southeastward towards Florida. Flow ahead of this surface front may be relatively strong, with gusts of 25-30 mph and RH in the 35-40% range, though there is some uncertainty on the RH values, given surface parcel trajectories off of the warm ocean. This may provide a limiting factor for the fire weather risk. However, given receptive fuels in the area (near 90th percentile ERCs), have included an Elevated area across parts of the Florida peninsula. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The Elevated fire weather area was expanded slightly south/southeast across portions of the Florida peninsula based on the latest high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. While minimum RH values are forecast to be only marginally lowered (generally near or greater than 40%), sustained south/southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph (with stronger gusts) overlapping receptive fuels (high KBDI and ERC percentiles) will promote at least a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon/evening. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's (Monday's) fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be moving eastward across parts of the southeast US during the day on Monday with a surface low pressure area pushing a cold front southeastward towards Florida. Flow ahead of this surface front may be relatively strong, with gusts of 25-30 mph and RH in the 35-40% range, though there is some uncertainty on the RH values, given surface parcel trajectories off of the warm ocean. This may provide a limiting factor for the fire weather risk. However, given receptive fuels in the area (near 90th percentile ERCs), have included an Elevated area across parts of the Florida peninsula. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast on Monday, with midlevel jet max intensifying as it begins to phase with a deeper trough over the Great Lakes. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will develop over the central Carolinas extending south into GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints maintained. In concert with the strengthening midlevel wave, a 40-50 kt low-level jet is forecast as well, with effective SRH over 200 m2/s2. Heating will steepen lapse rates and result in MUCAPE to around 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, which will extend from the western Carolinas into central GA at midday. Scattered showers and storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front early, with rejuvenation potential as the activity and lift encounter the warming air mass to the east. The primary mitigating issue will be very poor lapse rates aloft, which will limit updraft strength. Still, favorable diurnal timing and favorable shear should result in a at least isolated severe storms with mainly wind potential. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms during the afternoon. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast on Monday, with midlevel jet max intensifying as it begins to phase with a deeper trough over the Great Lakes. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will develop over the central Carolinas extending south into GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints maintained. In concert with the strengthening midlevel wave, a 40-50 kt low-level jet is forecast as well, with effective SRH over 200 m2/s2. Heating will steepen lapse rates and result in MUCAPE to around 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, which will extend from the western Carolinas into central GA at midday. Scattered showers and storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front early, with rejuvenation potential as the activity and lift encounter the warming air mass to the east. The primary mitigating issue will be very poor lapse rates aloft, which will limit updraft strength. Still, favorable diurnal timing and favorable shear should result in a at least isolated severe storms with mainly wind potential. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms during the afternoon. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast on Monday, with midlevel jet max intensifying as it begins to phase with a deeper trough over the Great Lakes. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will develop over the central Carolinas extending south into GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints maintained. In concert with the strengthening midlevel wave, a 40-50 kt low-level jet is forecast as well, with effective SRH over 200 m2/s2. Heating will steepen lapse rates and result in MUCAPE to around 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, which will extend from the western Carolinas into central GA at midday. Scattered showers and storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front early, with rejuvenation potential as the activity and lift encounter the warming air mass to the east. The primary mitigating issue will be very poor lapse rates aloft, which will limit updraft strength. Still, favorable diurnal timing and favorable shear should result in a at least isolated severe storms with mainly wind potential. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms during the afternoon. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast on Monday, with midlevel jet max intensifying as it begins to phase with a deeper trough over the Great Lakes. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will develop over the central Carolinas extending south into GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints maintained. In concert with the strengthening midlevel wave, a 40-50 kt low-level jet is forecast as well, with effective SRH over 200 m2/s2. Heating will steepen lapse rates and result in MUCAPE to around 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, which will extend from the western Carolinas into central GA at midday. Scattered showers and storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front early, with rejuvenation potential as the activity and lift encounter the warming air mass to the east. The primary mitigating issue will be very poor lapse rates aloft, which will limit updraft strength. Still, favorable diurnal timing and favorable shear should result in a at least isolated severe storms with mainly wind potential. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms during the afternoon. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast on Monday, with midlevel jet max intensifying as it begins to phase with a deeper trough over the Great Lakes. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will develop over the central Carolinas extending south into GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints maintained. In concert with the strengthening midlevel wave, a 40-50 kt low-level jet is forecast as well, with effective SRH over 200 m2/s2. Heating will steepen lapse rates and result in MUCAPE to around 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, which will extend from the western Carolinas into central GA at midday. Scattered showers and storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front early, with rejuvenation potential as the activity and lift encounter the warming air mass to the east. The primary mitigating issue will be very poor lapse rates aloft, which will limit updraft strength. Still, favorable diurnal timing and favorable shear should result in a at least isolated severe storms with mainly wind potential. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms during the afternoon. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast on Monday, with midlevel jet max intensifying as it begins to phase with a deeper trough over the Great Lakes. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will develop over the central Carolinas extending south into GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints maintained. In concert with the strengthening midlevel wave, a 40-50 kt low-level jet is forecast as well, with effective SRH over 200 m2/s2. Heating will steepen lapse rates and result in MUCAPE to around 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, which will extend from the western Carolinas into central GA at midday. Scattered showers and storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front early, with rejuvenation potential as the activity and lift encounter the warming air mass to the east. The primary mitigating issue will be very poor lapse rates aloft, which will limit updraft strength. Still, favorable diurnal timing and favorable shear should result in a at least isolated severe storms with mainly wind potential. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms during the afternoon. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast on Monday, with midlevel jet max intensifying as it begins to phase with a deeper trough over the Great Lakes. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will develop over the central Carolinas extending south into GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints maintained. In concert with the strengthening midlevel wave, a 40-50 kt low-level jet is forecast as well, with effective SRH over 200 m2/s2. Heating will steepen lapse rates and result in MUCAPE to around 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, which will extend from the western Carolinas into central GA at midday. Scattered showers and storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front early, with rejuvenation potential as the activity and lift encounter the warming air mass to the east. The primary mitigating issue will be very poor lapse rates aloft, which will limit updraft strength. Still, favorable diurnal timing and favorable shear should result in a at least isolated severe storms with mainly wind potential. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms during the afternoon. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast on Monday, with midlevel jet max intensifying as it begins to phase with a deeper trough over the Great Lakes. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will develop over the central Carolinas extending south into GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints maintained. In concert with the strengthening midlevel wave, a 40-50 kt low-level jet is forecast as well, with effective SRH over 200 m2/s2. Heating will steepen lapse rates and result in MUCAPE to around 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, which will extend from the western Carolinas into central GA at midday. Scattered showers and storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front early, with rejuvenation potential as the activity and lift encounter the warming air mass to the east. The primary mitigating issue will be very poor lapse rates aloft, which will limit updraft strength. Still, favorable diurnal timing and favorable shear should result in a at least isolated severe storms with mainly wind potential. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms during the afternoon. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast on Monday, with midlevel jet max intensifying as it begins to phase with a deeper trough over the Great Lakes. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will develop over the central Carolinas extending south into GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints maintained. In concert with the strengthening midlevel wave, a 40-50 kt low-level jet is forecast as well, with effective SRH over 200 m2/s2. Heating will steepen lapse rates and result in MUCAPE to around 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, which will extend from the western Carolinas into central GA at midday. Scattered showers and storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front early, with rejuvenation potential as the activity and lift encounter the warming air mass to the east. The primary mitigating issue will be very poor lapse rates aloft, which will limit updraft strength. Still, favorable diurnal timing and favorable shear should result in a at least isolated severe storms with mainly wind potential. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms during the afternoon. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast on Monday, with midlevel jet max intensifying as it begins to phase with a deeper trough over the Great Lakes. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will develop over the central Carolinas extending south into GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints maintained. In concert with the strengthening midlevel wave, a 40-50 kt low-level jet is forecast as well, with effective SRH over 200 m2/s2. Heating will steepen lapse rates and result in MUCAPE to around 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, which will extend from the western Carolinas into central GA at midday. Scattered showers and storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front early, with rejuvenation potential as the activity and lift encounter the warming air mass to the east. The primary mitigating issue will be very poor lapse rates aloft, which will limit updraft strength. Still, favorable diurnal timing and favorable shear should result in a at least isolated severe storms with mainly wind potential. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms during the afternoon. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast on Monday, with midlevel jet max intensifying as it begins to phase with a deeper trough over the Great Lakes. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will develop over the central Carolinas extending south into GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints maintained. In concert with the strengthening midlevel wave, a 40-50 kt low-level jet is forecast as well, with effective SRH over 200 m2/s2. Heating will steepen lapse rates and result in MUCAPE to around 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, which will extend from the western Carolinas into central GA at midday. Scattered showers and storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front early, with rejuvenation potential as the activity and lift encounter the warming air mass to the east. The primary mitigating issue will be very poor lapse rates aloft, which will limit updraft strength. Still, favorable diurnal timing and favorable shear should result in a at least isolated severe storms with mainly wind potential. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms during the afternoon. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025 Read more