Severe Storms

WW 0130 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 130 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S TYS TO 40 SSE TYS. ..KERR..04/06/25 ATTN...WFO...MRX...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 130 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC043-113-061040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY MACON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0130 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 130 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S TYS TO 40 SSE TYS. ..KERR..04/06/25 ATTN...WFO...MRX...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 130 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC043-113-061040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY MACON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0130 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 130 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S TYS TO 40 SSE TYS. ..KERR..04/06/25 ATTN...WFO...MRX...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 130 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC043-113-061040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY MACON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0130 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 130 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S TYS TO 40 SSE TYS. ..KERR..04/06/25 ATTN...WFO...MRX...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 130 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC043-113-061040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY MACON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0130 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 130 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S TYS TO 40 SSE TYS. ..KERR..04/06/25 ATTN...WFO...MRX...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 130 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC043-113-061040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY MACON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 130 TORNADO NC TN 060535Z - 061100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 130 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Western North Carolina Southeastern Tennessee * Effective this Sunday morning from 135 AM until 700 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Convective line currently moving through middle TN is expected to continue eastward into southeastern TN and eventually far western NC over the next several hours. Low-level shear across the region is expected to remain strong enough to support occasional bowing within this line, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 25 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Chattanooga TN to 30 miles southeast of Knoxville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 128...WW 129... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... During the mid to late week, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward from the north-central states into the eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return ahead of the trough is expected to be slow, which should result in only weak instability ahead of the system. As the trough progresses southeastward, isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night in parts of the central Plains. On Thursday, an isolated severe threat may develop in parts of the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex. By Friday, the system is forecast to be in the Southeast, where isolated severe storms will be possible in parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. Any severe threat that develops from Wednesday to Friday is expected to be marginal, mainly due to issues with poor moisture return and relatively weak instability. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Some low-level moisture is expected to return northward into the Great Plains, where instability may become strong enough for a severe threat. However, subsidence in the vicinity of the ridge is expected to keep any threat that develops very isolated. On Sunday, model forecasts suggest that a long fetch of west-northwest mid-level flow becomes established over much of the U.S. Although isolated thunderstorms may form within a somewhat moist airmass over parts of the south-central states Sunday afternoon, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak. This, combined with uncertainties at this extended range, suggest that predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... During the mid to late week, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward from the north-central states into the eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return ahead of the trough is expected to be slow, which should result in only weak instability ahead of the system. As the trough progresses southeastward, isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night in parts of the central Plains. On Thursday, an isolated severe threat may develop in parts of the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex. By Friday, the system is forecast to be in the Southeast, where isolated severe storms will be possible in parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. Any severe threat that develops from Wednesday to Friday is expected to be marginal, mainly due to issues with poor moisture return and relatively weak instability. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Some low-level moisture is expected to return northward into the Great Plains, where instability may become strong enough for a severe threat. However, subsidence in the vicinity of the ridge is expected to keep any threat that develops very isolated. On Sunday, model forecasts suggest that a long fetch of west-northwest mid-level flow becomes established over much of the U.S. Although isolated thunderstorms may form within a somewhat moist airmass over parts of the south-central states Sunday afternoon, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak. This, combined with uncertainties at this extended range, suggest that predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... During the mid to late week, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward from the north-central states into the eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return ahead of the trough is expected to be slow, which should result in only weak instability ahead of the system. As the trough progresses southeastward, isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night in parts of the central Plains. On Thursday, an isolated severe threat may develop in parts of the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex. By Friday, the system is forecast to be in the Southeast, where isolated severe storms will be possible in parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. Any severe threat that develops from Wednesday to Friday is expected to be marginal, mainly due to issues with poor moisture return and relatively weak instability. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Some low-level moisture is expected to return northward into the Great Plains, where instability may become strong enough for a severe threat. However, subsidence in the vicinity of the ridge is expected to keep any threat that develops very isolated. On Sunday, model forecasts suggest that a long fetch of west-northwest mid-level flow becomes established over much of the U.S. Although isolated thunderstorms may form within a somewhat moist airmass over parts of the south-central states Sunday afternoon, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak. This, combined with uncertainties at this extended range, suggest that predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... During the mid to late week, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward from the north-central states into the eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return ahead of the trough is expected to be slow, which should result in only weak instability ahead of the system. As the trough progresses southeastward, isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night in parts of the central Plains. On Thursday, an isolated severe threat may develop in parts of the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex. By Friday, the system is forecast to be in the Southeast, where isolated severe storms will be possible in parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. Any severe threat that develops from Wednesday to Friday is expected to be marginal, mainly due to issues with poor moisture return and relatively weak instability. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Some low-level moisture is expected to return northward into the Great Plains, where instability may become strong enough for a severe threat. However, subsidence in the vicinity of the ridge is expected to keep any threat that develops very isolated. On Sunday, model forecasts suggest that a long fetch of west-northwest mid-level flow becomes established over much of the U.S. Although isolated thunderstorms may form within a somewhat moist airmass over parts of the south-central states Sunday afternoon, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak. This, combined with uncertainties at this extended range, suggest that predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... During the mid to late week, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward from the north-central states into the eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return ahead of the trough is expected to be slow, which should result in only weak instability ahead of the system. As the trough progresses southeastward, isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night in parts of the central Plains. On Thursday, an isolated severe threat may develop in parts of the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex. By Friday, the system is forecast to be in the Southeast, where isolated severe storms will be possible in parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. Any severe threat that develops from Wednesday to Friday is expected to be marginal, mainly due to issues with poor moisture return and relatively weak instability. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Some low-level moisture is expected to return northward into the Great Plains, where instability may become strong enough for a severe threat. However, subsidence in the vicinity of the ridge is expected to keep any threat that develops very isolated. On Sunday, model forecasts suggest that a long fetch of west-northwest mid-level flow becomes established over much of the U.S. Although isolated thunderstorms may form within a somewhat moist airmass over parts of the south-central states Sunday afternoon, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak. This, combined with uncertainties at this extended range, suggest that predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... During the mid to late week, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward from the north-central states into the eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return ahead of the trough is expected to be slow, which should result in only weak instability ahead of the system. As the trough progresses southeastward, isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night in parts of the central Plains. On Thursday, an isolated severe threat may develop in parts of the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex. By Friday, the system is forecast to be in the Southeast, where isolated severe storms will be possible in parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. Any severe threat that develops from Wednesday to Friday is expected to be marginal, mainly due to issues with poor moisture return and relatively weak instability. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Some low-level moisture is expected to return northward into the Great Plains, where instability may become strong enough for a severe threat. However, subsidence in the vicinity of the ridge is expected to keep any threat that develops very isolated. On Sunday, model forecasts suggest that a long fetch of west-northwest mid-level flow becomes established over much of the U.S. Although isolated thunderstorms may form within a somewhat moist airmass over parts of the south-central states Sunday afternoon, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak. This, combined with uncertainties at this extended range, suggest that predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... During the mid to late week, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward from the north-central states into the eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return ahead of the trough is expected to be slow, which should result in only weak instability ahead of the system. As the trough progresses southeastward, isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night in parts of the central Plains. On Thursday, an isolated severe threat may develop in parts of the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex. By Friday, the system is forecast to be in the Southeast, where isolated severe storms will be possible in parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. Any severe threat that develops from Wednesday to Friday is expected to be marginal, mainly due to issues with poor moisture return and relatively weak instability. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Some low-level moisture is expected to return northward into the Great Plains, where instability may become strong enough for a severe threat. However, subsidence in the vicinity of the ridge is expected to keep any threat that develops very isolated. On Sunday, model forecasts suggest that a long fetch of west-northwest mid-level flow becomes established over much of the U.S. Although isolated thunderstorms may form within a somewhat moist airmass over parts of the south-central states Sunday afternoon, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak. This, combined with uncertainties at this extended range, suggest that predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... During the mid to late week, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward from the north-central states into the eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return ahead of the trough is expected to be slow, which should result in only weak instability ahead of the system. As the trough progresses southeastward, isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night in parts of the central Plains. On Thursday, an isolated severe threat may develop in parts of the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex. By Friday, the system is forecast to be in the Southeast, where isolated severe storms will be possible in parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. Any severe threat that develops from Wednesday to Friday is expected to be marginal, mainly due to issues with poor moisture return and relatively weak instability. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Some low-level moisture is expected to return northward into the Great Plains, where instability may become strong enough for a severe threat. However, subsidence in the vicinity of the ridge is expected to keep any threat that develops very isolated. On Sunday, model forecasts suggest that a long fetch of west-northwest mid-level flow becomes established over much of the U.S. Although isolated thunderstorms may form within a somewhat moist airmass over parts of the south-central states Sunday afternoon, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak. This, combined with uncertainties at this extended range, suggest that predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... During the mid to late week, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward from the north-central states into the eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return ahead of the trough is expected to be slow, which should result in only weak instability ahead of the system. As the trough progresses southeastward, isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night in parts of the central Plains. On Thursday, an isolated severe threat may develop in parts of the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex. By Friday, the system is forecast to be in the Southeast, where isolated severe storms will be possible in parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. Any severe threat that develops from Wednesday to Friday is expected to be marginal, mainly due to issues with poor moisture return and relatively weak instability. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Some low-level moisture is expected to return northward into the Great Plains, where instability may become strong enough for a severe threat. However, subsidence in the vicinity of the ridge is expected to keep any threat that develops very isolated. On Sunday, model forecasts suggest that a long fetch of west-northwest mid-level flow becomes established over much of the U.S. Although isolated thunderstorms may form within a somewhat moist airmass over parts of the south-central states Sunday afternoon, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak. This, combined with uncertainties at this extended range, suggest that predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... During the mid to late week, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward from the north-central states into the eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return ahead of the trough is expected to be slow, which should result in only weak instability ahead of the system. As the trough progresses southeastward, isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night in parts of the central Plains. On Thursday, an isolated severe threat may develop in parts of the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex. By Friday, the system is forecast to be in the Southeast, where isolated severe storms will be possible in parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. Any severe threat that develops from Wednesday to Friday is expected to be marginal, mainly due to issues with poor moisture return and relatively weak instability. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Some low-level moisture is expected to return northward into the Great Plains, where instability may become strong enough for a severe threat. However, subsidence in the vicinity of the ridge is expected to keep any threat that develops very isolated. On Sunday, model forecasts suggest that a long fetch of west-northwest mid-level flow becomes established over much of the U.S. Although isolated thunderstorms may form within a somewhat moist airmass over parts of the south-central states Sunday afternoon, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak. This, combined with uncertainties at this extended range, suggest that predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... During the mid to late week, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward from the north-central states into the eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return ahead of the trough is expected to be slow, which should result in only weak instability ahead of the system. As the trough progresses southeastward, isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night in parts of the central Plains. On Thursday, an isolated severe threat may develop in parts of the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex. By Friday, the system is forecast to be in the Southeast, where isolated severe storms will be possible in parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. Any severe threat that develops from Wednesday to Friday is expected to be marginal, mainly due to issues with poor moisture return and relatively weak instability. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Some low-level moisture is expected to return northward into the Great Plains, where instability may become strong enough for a severe threat. However, subsidence in the vicinity of the ridge is expected to keep any threat that develops very isolated. On Sunday, model forecasts suggest that a long fetch of west-northwest mid-level flow becomes established over much of the U.S. Although isolated thunderstorms may form within a somewhat moist airmass over parts of the south-central states Sunday afternoon, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak. This, combined with uncertainties at this extended range, suggest that predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... During the mid to late week, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward from the north-central states into the eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return ahead of the trough is expected to be slow, which should result in only weak instability ahead of the system. As the trough progresses southeastward, isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night in parts of the central Plains. On Thursday, an isolated severe threat may develop in parts of the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex. By Friday, the system is forecast to be in the Southeast, where isolated severe storms will be possible in parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. Any severe threat that develops from Wednesday to Friday is expected to be marginal, mainly due to issues with poor moisture return and relatively weak instability. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Some low-level moisture is expected to return northward into the Great Plains, where instability may become strong enough for a severe threat. However, subsidence in the vicinity of the ridge is expected to keep any threat that develops very isolated. On Sunday, model forecasts suggest that a long fetch of west-northwest mid-level flow becomes established over much of the U.S. Although isolated thunderstorms may form within a somewhat moist airmass over parts of the south-central states Sunday afternoon, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak. This, combined with uncertainties at this extended range, suggest that predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... During the mid to late week, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward from the north-central states into the eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return ahead of the trough is expected to be slow, which should result in only weak instability ahead of the system. As the trough progresses southeastward, isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night in parts of the central Plains. On Thursday, an isolated severe threat may develop in parts of the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex. By Friday, the system is forecast to be in the Southeast, where isolated severe storms will be possible in parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. Any severe threat that develops from Wednesday to Friday is expected to be marginal, mainly due to issues with poor moisture return and relatively weak instability. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Some low-level moisture is expected to return northward into the Great Plains, where instability may become strong enough for a severe threat. However, subsidence in the vicinity of the ridge is expected to keep any threat that develops very isolated. On Sunday, model forecasts suggest that a long fetch of west-northwest mid-level flow becomes established over much of the U.S. Although isolated thunderstorms may form within a somewhat moist airmass over parts of the south-central states Sunday afternoon, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak. This, combined with uncertainties at this extended range, suggest that predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... During the mid to late week, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward from the north-central states into the eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return ahead of the trough is expected to be slow, which should result in only weak instability ahead of the system. As the trough progresses southeastward, isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night in parts of the central Plains. On Thursday, an isolated severe threat may develop in parts of the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex. By Friday, the system is forecast to be in the Southeast, where isolated severe storms will be possible in parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. Any severe threat that develops from Wednesday to Friday is expected to be marginal, mainly due to issues with poor moisture return and relatively weak instability. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Some low-level moisture is expected to return northward into the Great Plains, where instability may become strong enough for a severe threat. However, subsidence in the vicinity of the ridge is expected to keep any threat that develops very isolated. On Sunday, model forecasts suggest that a long fetch of west-northwest mid-level flow becomes established over much of the U.S. Although isolated thunderstorms may form within a somewhat moist airmass over parts of the south-central states Sunday afternoon, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak. This, combined with uncertainties at this extended range, suggest that predictability is low. Read more