Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track with only minor adjustments needed to the Elevated area across the Florida peninsula based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. As of 1630 UTC, surface observations across the Florida peninsula indicate sustained southerly winds of 10-15 mph amidst RH values of 50-60%, with surface temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s. Strong surface heating over the next few hours should lead to very warm (near record) temperatures this afternoon, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and corresponding minimum RH values of 35-45%. Given receptive fuels across the area, Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely for a few hours this afternoon/evening before improving quickly by late evening as temperatures decrease (RH values increase) and surface winds subside. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Plains through the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low pressure area across the southeast CONUS. The southerly flow ahead of this surface low will bring a shallow modified air mass onshore across the southeast US, and strong mixing will lower the RH. In particular, across parts of the Florida peninsula, RH is expected to be near 35-40% in the afternoon with some breezy conditions. Given high KBDI values in the area, as well as fuel ERCs near the 90th percentile, have maintained an Elevated area on the Florida peninsula. Farther north across parts of Georgia, fuels are not as receptive and RH is a bit higher, so have held off on introducing Elevated highlights there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track with only minor adjustments needed to the Elevated area across the Florida peninsula based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. As of 1630 UTC, surface observations across the Florida peninsula indicate sustained southerly winds of 10-15 mph amidst RH values of 50-60%, with surface temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s. Strong surface heating over the next few hours should lead to very warm (near record) temperatures this afternoon, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and corresponding minimum RH values of 35-45%. Given receptive fuels across the area, Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely for a few hours this afternoon/evening before improving quickly by late evening as temperatures decrease (RH values increase) and surface winds subside. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Plains through the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low pressure area across the southeast CONUS. The southerly flow ahead of this surface low will bring a shallow modified air mass onshore across the southeast US, and strong mixing will lower the RH. In particular, across parts of the Florida peninsula, RH is expected to be near 35-40% in the afternoon with some breezy conditions. Given high KBDI values in the area, as well as fuel ERCs near the 90th percentile, have maintained an Elevated area on the Florida peninsula. Farther north across parts of Georgia, fuels are not as receptive and RH is a bit higher, so have held off on introducing Elevated highlights there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track with only minor adjustments needed to the Elevated area across the Florida peninsula based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. As of 1630 UTC, surface observations across the Florida peninsula indicate sustained southerly winds of 10-15 mph amidst RH values of 50-60%, with surface temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s. Strong surface heating over the next few hours should lead to very warm (near record) temperatures this afternoon, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and corresponding minimum RH values of 35-45%. Given receptive fuels across the area, Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely for a few hours this afternoon/evening before improving quickly by late evening as temperatures decrease (RH values increase) and surface winds subside. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Plains through the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low pressure area across the southeast CONUS. The southerly flow ahead of this surface low will bring a shallow modified air mass onshore across the southeast US, and strong mixing will lower the RH. In particular, across parts of the Florida peninsula, RH is expected to be near 35-40% in the afternoon with some breezy conditions. Given high KBDI values in the area, as well as fuel ERCs near the 90th percentile, have maintained an Elevated area on the Florida peninsula. Farther north across parts of Georgia, fuels are not as receptive and RH is a bit higher, so have held off on introducing Elevated highlights there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track with only minor adjustments needed to the Elevated area across the Florida peninsula based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. As of 1630 UTC, surface observations across the Florida peninsula indicate sustained southerly winds of 10-15 mph amidst RH values of 50-60%, with surface temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s. Strong surface heating over the next few hours should lead to very warm (near record) temperatures this afternoon, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and corresponding minimum RH values of 35-45%. Given receptive fuels across the area, Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely for a few hours this afternoon/evening before improving quickly by late evening as temperatures decrease (RH values increase) and surface winds subside. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Plains through the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low pressure area across the southeast CONUS. The southerly flow ahead of this surface low will bring a shallow modified air mass onshore across the southeast US, and strong mixing will lower the RH. In particular, across parts of the Florida peninsula, RH is expected to be near 35-40% in the afternoon with some breezy conditions. Given high KBDI values in the area, as well as fuel ERCs near the 90th percentile, have maintained an Elevated area on the Florida peninsula. Farther north across parts of Georgia, fuels are not as receptive and RH is a bit higher, so have held off on introducing Elevated highlights there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track with only minor adjustments needed to the Elevated area across the Florida peninsula based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. As of 1630 UTC, surface observations across the Florida peninsula indicate sustained southerly winds of 10-15 mph amidst RH values of 50-60%, with surface temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s. Strong surface heating over the next few hours should lead to very warm (near record) temperatures this afternoon, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and corresponding minimum RH values of 35-45%. Given receptive fuels across the area, Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely for a few hours this afternoon/evening before improving quickly by late evening as temperatures decrease (RH values increase) and surface winds subside. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Plains through the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low pressure area across the southeast CONUS. The southerly flow ahead of this surface low will bring a shallow modified air mass onshore across the southeast US, and strong mixing will lower the RH. In particular, across parts of the Florida peninsula, RH is expected to be near 35-40% in the afternoon with some breezy conditions. Given high KBDI values in the area, as well as fuel ERCs near the 90th percentile, have maintained an Elevated area on the Florida peninsula. Farther north across parts of Georgia, fuels are not as receptive and RH is a bit higher, so have held off on introducing Elevated highlights there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track with only minor adjustments needed to the Elevated area across the Florida peninsula based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. As of 1630 UTC, surface observations across the Florida peninsula indicate sustained southerly winds of 10-15 mph amidst RH values of 50-60%, with surface temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s. Strong surface heating over the next few hours should lead to very warm (near record) temperatures this afternoon, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and corresponding minimum RH values of 35-45%. Given receptive fuels across the area, Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely for a few hours this afternoon/evening before improving quickly by late evening as temperatures decrease (RH values increase) and surface winds subside. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Plains through the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low pressure area across the southeast CONUS. The southerly flow ahead of this surface low will bring a shallow modified air mass onshore across the southeast US, and strong mixing will lower the RH. In particular, across parts of the Florida peninsula, RH is expected to be near 35-40% in the afternoon with some breezy conditions. Given high KBDI values in the area, as well as fuel ERCs near the 90th percentile, have maintained an Elevated area on the Florida peninsula. Farther north across parts of Georgia, fuels are not as receptive and RH is a bit higher, so have held off on introducing Elevated highlights there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track with only minor adjustments needed to the Elevated area across the Florida peninsula based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. As of 1630 UTC, surface observations across the Florida peninsula indicate sustained southerly winds of 10-15 mph amidst RH values of 50-60%, with surface temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s. Strong surface heating over the next few hours should lead to very warm (near record) temperatures this afternoon, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and corresponding minimum RH values of 35-45%. Given receptive fuels across the area, Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely for a few hours this afternoon/evening before improving quickly by late evening as temperatures decrease (RH values increase) and surface winds subside. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Plains through the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low pressure area across the southeast CONUS. The southerly flow ahead of this surface low will bring a shallow modified air mass onshore across the southeast US, and strong mixing will lower the RH. In particular, across parts of the Florida peninsula, RH is expected to be near 35-40% in the afternoon with some breezy conditions. Given high KBDI values in the area, as well as fuel ERCs near the 90th percentile, have maintained an Elevated area on the Florida peninsula. Farther north across parts of Georgia, fuels are not as receptive and RH is a bit higher, so have held off on introducing Elevated highlights there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track with only minor adjustments needed to the Elevated area across the Florida peninsula based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. As of 1630 UTC, surface observations across the Florida peninsula indicate sustained southerly winds of 10-15 mph amidst RH values of 50-60%, with surface temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s. Strong surface heating over the next few hours should lead to very warm (near record) temperatures this afternoon, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and corresponding minimum RH values of 35-45%. Given receptive fuels across the area, Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely for a few hours this afternoon/evening before improving quickly by late evening as temperatures decrease (RH values increase) and surface winds subside. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Plains through the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low pressure area across the southeast CONUS. The southerly flow ahead of this surface low will bring a shallow modified air mass onshore across the southeast US, and strong mixing will lower the RH. In particular, across parts of the Florida peninsula, RH is expected to be near 35-40% in the afternoon with some breezy conditions. Given high KBDI values in the area, as well as fuel ERCs near the 90th percentile, have maintained an Elevated area on the Florida peninsula. Farther north across parts of Georgia, fuels are not as receptive and RH is a bit higher, so have held off on introducing Elevated highlights there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track with only minor adjustments needed to the Elevated area across the Florida peninsula based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. As of 1630 UTC, surface observations across the Florida peninsula indicate sustained southerly winds of 10-15 mph amidst RH values of 50-60%, with surface temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s. Strong surface heating over the next few hours should lead to very warm (near record) temperatures this afternoon, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and corresponding minimum RH values of 35-45%. Given receptive fuels across the area, Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely for a few hours this afternoon/evening before improving quickly by late evening as temperatures decrease (RH values increase) and surface winds subside. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Plains through the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low pressure area across the southeast CONUS. The southerly flow ahead of this surface low will bring a shallow modified air mass onshore across the southeast US, and strong mixing will lower the RH. In particular, across parts of the Florida peninsula, RH is expected to be near 35-40% in the afternoon with some breezy conditions. Given high KBDI values in the area, as well as fuel ERCs near the 90th percentile, have maintained an Elevated area on the Florida peninsula. Farther north across parts of Georgia, fuels are not as receptive and RH is a bit higher, so have held off on introducing Elevated highlights there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track with only minor adjustments needed to the Elevated area across the Florida peninsula based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. As of 1630 UTC, surface observations across the Florida peninsula indicate sustained southerly winds of 10-15 mph amidst RH values of 50-60%, with surface temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s. Strong surface heating over the next few hours should lead to very warm (near record) temperatures this afternoon, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and corresponding minimum RH values of 35-45%. Given receptive fuels across the area, Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely for a few hours this afternoon/evening before improving quickly by late evening as temperatures decrease (RH values increase) and surface winds subside. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Plains through the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low pressure area across the southeast CONUS. The southerly flow ahead of this surface low will bring a shallow modified air mass onshore across the southeast US, and strong mixing will lower the RH. In particular, across parts of the Florida peninsula, RH is expected to be near 35-40% in the afternoon with some breezy conditions. Given high KBDI values in the area, as well as fuel ERCs near the 90th percentile, have maintained an Elevated area on the Florida peninsula. Farther north across parts of Georgia, fuels are not as receptive and RH is a bit higher, so have held off on introducing Elevated highlights there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track with only minor adjustments needed to the Elevated area across the Florida peninsula based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. As of 1630 UTC, surface observations across the Florida peninsula indicate sustained southerly winds of 10-15 mph amidst RH values of 50-60%, with surface temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s. Strong surface heating over the next few hours should lead to very warm (near record) temperatures this afternoon, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and corresponding minimum RH values of 35-45%. Given receptive fuels across the area, Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely for a few hours this afternoon/evening before improving quickly by late evening as temperatures decrease (RH values increase) and surface winds subside. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Plains through the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low pressure area across the southeast CONUS. The southerly flow ahead of this surface low will bring a shallow modified air mass onshore across the southeast US, and strong mixing will lower the RH. In particular, across parts of the Florida peninsula, RH is expected to be near 35-40% in the afternoon with some breezy conditions. Given high KBDI values in the area, as well as fuel ERCs near the 90th percentile, have maintained an Elevated area on the Florida peninsula. Farther north across parts of Georgia, fuels are not as receptive and RH is a bit higher, so have held off on introducing Elevated highlights there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track with only minor adjustments needed to the Elevated area across the Florida peninsula based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. As of 1630 UTC, surface observations across the Florida peninsula indicate sustained southerly winds of 10-15 mph amidst RH values of 50-60%, with surface temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s. Strong surface heating over the next few hours should lead to very warm (near record) temperatures this afternoon, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and corresponding minimum RH values of 35-45%. Given receptive fuels across the area, Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely for a few hours this afternoon/evening before improving quickly by late evening as temperatures decrease (RH values increase) and surface winds subside. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Plains through the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low pressure area across the southeast CONUS. The southerly flow ahead of this surface low will bring a shallow modified air mass onshore across the southeast US, and strong mixing will lower the RH. In particular, across parts of the Florida peninsula, RH is expected to be near 35-40% in the afternoon with some breezy conditions. Given high KBDI values in the area, as well as fuel ERCs near the 90th percentile, have maintained an Elevated area on the Florida peninsula. Farther north across parts of Georgia, fuels are not as receptive and RH is a bit higher, so have held off on introducing Elevated highlights there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat exists across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible northeastward into parts of the southern Appalachians and southern Virginia. ...Southeast... A composite squall line with some embedded bows, along with some preceding thunderstorms and occasional transient/mostly weak supercells thus far, extends from the Alabama/Georgia border vicinity (west/southwest of Atlanta metro) southwestward into east-central Alabama and southwest Alabama near Mobile as of 1130am CDT/1230pm EDT. Multi-layer cloud cover extends across the nearby warm sector to its east, but a moist environment (upper 60s/near 70F) and some additional heating will lead to further destabilization, a change that should most appreciably occur northeastward into western/north-central Georgia owing to differential heating and essentially a northeastward-advancing warm front. The strongest forcing for ascent and deep-layer winds will lag (to the west-northeast) the composite convective line, but sufficient vertical shear extends into the warm sector to support organized storm modes including semi-discrete supercells and line-embedded bows. Damaging wind and tornado risks will exist through at least early/mid-evening. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce isolated wind damage. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat exists across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible northeastward into parts of the southern Appalachians and southern Virginia. ...Southeast... A composite squall line with some embedded bows, along with some preceding thunderstorms and occasional transient/mostly weak supercells thus far, extends from the Alabama/Georgia border vicinity (west/southwest of Atlanta metro) southwestward into east-central Alabama and southwest Alabama near Mobile as of 1130am CDT/1230pm EDT. Multi-layer cloud cover extends across the nearby warm sector to its east, but a moist environment (upper 60s/near 70F) and some additional heating will lead to further destabilization, a change that should most appreciably occur northeastward into western/north-central Georgia owing to differential heating and essentially a northeastward-advancing warm front. The strongest forcing for ascent and deep-layer winds will lag (to the west-northeast) the composite convective line, but sufficient vertical shear extends into the warm sector to support organized storm modes including semi-discrete supercells and line-embedded bows. Damaging wind and tornado risks will exist through at least early/mid-evening. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce isolated wind damage. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat exists across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible northeastward into parts of the southern Appalachians and southern Virginia. ...Southeast... A composite squall line with some embedded bows, along with some preceding thunderstorms and occasional transient/mostly weak supercells thus far, extends from the Alabama/Georgia border vicinity (west/southwest of Atlanta metro) southwestward into east-central Alabama and southwest Alabama near Mobile as of 1130am CDT/1230pm EDT. Multi-layer cloud cover extends across the nearby warm sector to its east, but a moist environment (upper 60s/near 70F) and some additional heating will lead to further destabilization, a change that should most appreciably occur northeastward into western/north-central Georgia owing to differential heating and essentially a northeastward-advancing warm front. The strongest forcing for ascent and deep-layer winds will lag (to the west-northeast) the composite convective line, but sufficient vertical shear extends into the warm sector to support organized storm modes including semi-discrete supercells and line-embedded bows. Damaging wind and tornado risks will exist through at least early/mid-evening. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce isolated wind damage. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat exists across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible northeastward into parts of the southern Appalachians and southern Virginia. ...Southeast... A composite squall line with some embedded bows, along with some preceding thunderstorms and occasional transient/mostly weak supercells thus far, extends from the Alabama/Georgia border vicinity (west/southwest of Atlanta metro) southwestward into east-central Alabama and southwest Alabama near Mobile as of 1130am CDT/1230pm EDT. Multi-layer cloud cover extends across the nearby warm sector to its east, but a moist environment (upper 60s/near 70F) and some additional heating will lead to further destabilization, a change that should most appreciably occur northeastward into western/north-central Georgia owing to differential heating and essentially a northeastward-advancing warm front. The strongest forcing for ascent and deep-layer winds will lag (to the west-northeast) the composite convective line, but sufficient vertical shear extends into the warm sector to support organized storm modes including semi-discrete supercells and line-embedded bows. Damaging wind and tornado risks will exist through at least early/mid-evening. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce isolated wind damage. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat exists across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible northeastward into parts of the southern Appalachians and southern Virginia. ...Southeast... A composite squall line with some embedded bows, along with some preceding thunderstorms and occasional transient/mostly weak supercells thus far, extends from the Alabama/Georgia border vicinity (west/southwest of Atlanta metro) southwestward into east-central Alabama and southwest Alabama near Mobile as of 1130am CDT/1230pm EDT. Multi-layer cloud cover extends across the nearby warm sector to its east, but a moist environment (upper 60s/near 70F) and some additional heating will lead to further destabilization, a change that should most appreciably occur northeastward into western/north-central Georgia owing to differential heating and essentially a northeastward-advancing warm front. The strongest forcing for ascent and deep-layer winds will lag (to the west-northeast) the composite convective line, but sufficient vertical shear extends into the warm sector to support organized storm modes including semi-discrete supercells and line-embedded bows. Damaging wind and tornado risks will exist through at least early/mid-evening. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce isolated wind damage. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat exists across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible northeastward into parts of the southern Appalachians and southern Virginia. ...Southeast... A composite squall line with some embedded bows, along with some preceding thunderstorms and occasional transient/mostly weak supercells thus far, extends from the Alabama/Georgia border vicinity (west/southwest of Atlanta metro) southwestward into east-central Alabama and southwest Alabama near Mobile as of 1130am CDT/1230pm EDT. Multi-layer cloud cover extends across the nearby warm sector to its east, but a moist environment (upper 60s/near 70F) and some additional heating will lead to further destabilization, a change that should most appreciably occur northeastward into western/north-central Georgia owing to differential heating and essentially a northeastward-advancing warm front. The strongest forcing for ascent and deep-layer winds will lag (to the west-northeast) the composite convective line, but sufficient vertical shear extends into the warm sector to support organized storm modes including semi-discrete supercells and line-embedded bows. Damaging wind and tornado risks will exist through at least early/mid-evening. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce isolated wind damage. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat exists across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible northeastward into parts of the southern Appalachians and southern Virginia. ...Southeast... A composite squall line with some embedded bows, along with some preceding thunderstorms and occasional transient/mostly weak supercells thus far, extends from the Alabama/Georgia border vicinity (west/southwest of Atlanta metro) southwestward into east-central Alabama and southwest Alabama near Mobile as of 1130am CDT/1230pm EDT. Multi-layer cloud cover extends across the nearby warm sector to its east, but a moist environment (upper 60s/near 70F) and some additional heating will lead to further destabilization, a change that should most appreciably occur northeastward into western/north-central Georgia owing to differential heating and essentially a northeastward-advancing warm front. The strongest forcing for ascent and deep-layer winds will lag (to the west-northeast) the composite convective line, but sufficient vertical shear extends into the warm sector to support organized storm modes including semi-discrete supercells and line-embedded bows. Damaging wind and tornado risks will exist through at least early/mid-evening. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce isolated wind damage. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat exists across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible northeastward into parts of the southern Appalachians and southern Virginia. ...Southeast... A composite squall line with some embedded bows, along with some preceding thunderstorms and occasional transient/mostly weak supercells thus far, extends from the Alabama/Georgia border vicinity (west/southwest of Atlanta metro) southwestward into east-central Alabama and southwest Alabama near Mobile as of 1130am CDT/1230pm EDT. Multi-layer cloud cover extends across the nearby warm sector to its east, but a moist environment (upper 60s/near 70F) and some additional heating will lead to further destabilization, a change that should most appreciably occur northeastward into western/north-central Georgia owing to differential heating and essentially a northeastward-advancing warm front. The strongest forcing for ascent and deep-layer winds will lag (to the west-northeast) the composite convective line, but sufficient vertical shear extends into the warm sector to support organized storm modes including semi-discrete supercells and line-embedded bows. Damaging wind and tornado risks will exist through at least early/mid-evening. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce isolated wind damage. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/06/2025 Read more