Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat exists across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible northeastward into parts of the southern Appalachians and southern Virginia. ...Southeast... A composite squall line with some embedded bows, along with some preceding thunderstorms and occasional transient/mostly weak supercells thus far, extends from the Alabama/Georgia border vicinity (west/southwest of Atlanta metro) southwestward into east-central Alabama and southwest Alabama near Mobile as of 1130am CDT/1230pm EDT. Multi-layer cloud cover extends across the nearby warm sector to its east, but a moist environment (upper 60s/near 70F) and some additional heating will lead to further destabilization, a change that should most appreciably occur northeastward into western/north-central Georgia owing to differential heating and essentially a northeastward-advancing warm front. The strongest forcing for ascent and deep-layer winds will lag (to the west-northeast) the composite convective line, but sufficient vertical shear extends into the warm sector to support organized storm modes including semi-discrete supercells and line-embedded bows. Damaging wind and tornado risks will exist through at least early/mid-evening. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce isolated wind damage. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat exists across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible northeastward into parts of the southern Appalachians and southern Virginia. ...Southeast... A composite squall line with some embedded bows, along with some preceding thunderstorms and occasional transient/mostly weak supercells thus far, extends from the Alabama/Georgia border vicinity (west/southwest of Atlanta metro) southwestward into east-central Alabama and southwest Alabama near Mobile as of 1130am CDT/1230pm EDT. Multi-layer cloud cover extends across the nearby warm sector to its east, but a moist environment (upper 60s/near 70F) and some additional heating will lead to further destabilization, a change that should most appreciably occur northeastward into western/north-central Georgia owing to differential heating and essentially a northeastward-advancing warm front. The strongest forcing for ascent and deep-layer winds will lag (to the west-northeast) the composite convective line, but sufficient vertical shear extends into the warm sector to support organized storm modes including semi-discrete supercells and line-embedded bows. Damaging wind and tornado risks will exist through at least early/mid-evening. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce isolated wind damage. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/06/2025 Read more

MD 0426 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 131... FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0426 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0909 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Areas affected...central and southern Alabama...far southeast Mississippi...the western Florida Panhandle...and western/central Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 131... Valid 061409Z - 061545Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 131 continues. SUMMARY...Some strengthening of storms across the eastern parts of tornado watch 131 are expected this morning. A tornado watch will likely be needed soon. DISCUSSION...A relative lull in convective intensity has occurred with theline of storms across Alabama and into far southeast Mississippi. Some convective coverage/intensity increase has been observed across southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama within the last hour or two. This is likely associated with a strengthening low-level jet (sampled by the MOB VWP). Downstream of these storms, some heating is possible through broken cloud cover which could be enough to erode the inhibition in the open warm sector (sample by the FFC 12Z RAOB). This strengthening low-level jet, combined with some heating/destabilization should support some continued severe weather threat east of watch 131 late this morning and into the afternoon. Strong deep-layer and low-level shear across the warm sector will support rotating updrafts and the potential for some tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. Weak lapse rates and mostly limited storm mode should keep hail production limited. ..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30278926 30558955 31238946 31888824 33158696 34088550 34608431 34018306 32918316 31668465 31028572 30448639 30298699 30498818 30278926 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0132 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0132 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0132 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0132 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0425 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 131... FOR PARTS OF SERN MS THROUGH CNTRL AL
Mesoscale Discussion 0425 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Areas affected...parts of sern MS through cntrl AL Concerning...Tornado Watch 131... Valid 061234Z - 061430Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 131 continues. SUMMARY...Convection may continue to undergo further organization and intensification through 9-10 AM CDT, accompanied by increasing risk for strong surface gusts, and a continuing risk for tornadoes. DISCUSSION...At least a bit broader, lower/mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulation appears to be evolving, perhaps including a surface meso-low now migrating east-northeastward into/across the Demopolis AL vicinity. Latest Rapid Refresh now indicates a more prominent south-southwesterly speed maximum associated with this feature, including 50+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer. Although moisture characterized by mid 60s+ surface dew points across central Alabama, between Montgomery and Birmingham still appear to supporting only modest CAPE (around 500 J/kg sampled in 12Z BMX sounding), low-level moisture advection and at least some boundary layer warming are likely to contribute to further destabilization in advance of the convection during the next few hours. Inflow of this air mass may be sufficient to support at least a gradual further intensification of activity during the next few hours, accompanied by increasing potential for strong surface gusts and a few tornadoes. Discrete thunderstorm development is also being maintained near/just ahead of the southern flank of the evolving convective system, and the occasional intensification of these cells, before merging into the line, may also be accompanied by increasing potential for a tornado near the Selma/Montgomery vicinities through mid morning. ..Kerr.. 04/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN... LAT...LON 33198688 33358539 32058702 31338798 31068892 32338827 33198688 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0131 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 131 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE MEI TO 35 SE MEI TO 50 ENE MEI TO 20 ESE TCL TO 10 SSW GAD TO 30 ENE GAD TO 10 W RMG TO 20 E CHA. ..BENTLEY..04/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 131 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-015-021-025-027-029-037-047-051-065-091-099-105-111- 117-121-123-129-131-061440- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB CALHOUN CHILTON CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA DALLAS ELMORE HALE MARENGO MONROE PERRY RANDOLPH SHELBY TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX GAC015-045-055-097-115-129-143-149-223-233-061440- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW CARROLL CHATTOOGA DOUGLAS FLOYD GORDON HARALSON HEARD PAULDING POLK Read more

WW 0131 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 131 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE MEI TO 35 SE MEI TO 50 ENE MEI TO 20 ESE TCL TO 10 SSW GAD TO 30 ENE GAD TO 10 W RMG TO 20 E CHA. ..BENTLEY..04/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 131 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-015-021-025-027-029-037-047-051-065-091-099-105-111- 117-121-123-129-131-061440- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB CALHOUN CHILTON CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA DALLAS ELMORE HALE MARENGO MONROE PERRY RANDOLPH SHELBY TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX GAC015-045-055-097-115-129-143-149-223-233-061440- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW CARROLL CHATTOOGA DOUGLAS FLOYD GORDON HARALSON HEARD PAULDING POLK Read more

WW 0131 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 131 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE MEI TO 35 SE MEI TO 50 ENE MEI TO 20 ESE TCL TO 10 SSW GAD TO 30 ENE GAD TO 10 W RMG TO 20 E CHA. ..BENTLEY..04/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 131 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-015-021-025-027-029-037-047-051-065-091-099-105-111- 117-121-123-129-131-061440- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB CALHOUN CHILTON CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA DALLAS ELMORE HALE MARENGO MONROE PERRY RANDOLPH SHELBY TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX GAC015-045-055-097-115-129-143-149-223-233-061440- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW CARROLL CHATTOOGA DOUGLAS FLOYD GORDON HARALSON HEARD PAULDING POLK Read more

WW 0131 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 131 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE MEI TO 35 SE MEI TO 50 ENE MEI TO 20 ESE TCL TO 10 SSW GAD TO 30 ENE GAD TO 10 W RMG TO 20 E CHA. ..BENTLEY..04/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 131 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-015-021-025-027-029-037-047-051-065-091-099-105-111- 117-121-123-129-131-061440- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB CALHOUN CHILTON CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA DALLAS ELMORE HALE MARENGO MONROE PERRY RANDOLPH SHELBY TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX GAC015-045-055-097-115-129-143-149-223-233-061440- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW CARROLL CHATTOOGA DOUGLAS FLOYD GORDON HARALSON HEARD PAULDING POLK Read more

WW 0131 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 131 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE MEI TO 35 SE MEI TO 50 ENE MEI TO 20 ESE TCL TO 10 SSW GAD TO 30 ENE GAD TO 10 W RMG TO 20 E CHA. ..BENTLEY..04/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 131 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-015-021-025-027-029-037-047-051-065-091-099-105-111- 117-121-123-129-131-061440- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB CALHOUN CHILTON CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA DALLAS ELMORE HALE MARENGO MONROE PERRY RANDOLPH SHELBY TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX GAC015-045-055-097-115-129-143-149-223-233-061440- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW CARROLL CHATTOOGA DOUGLAS FLOYD GORDON HARALSON HEARD PAULDING POLK Read more

WW 0131 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 131 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE MEI TO 35 SE MEI TO 50 ENE MEI TO 20 ESE TCL TO 10 SSW GAD TO 30 ENE GAD TO 10 W RMG TO 20 E CHA. ..BENTLEY..04/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 131 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-015-021-025-027-029-037-047-051-065-091-099-105-111- 117-121-123-129-131-061440- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB CALHOUN CHILTON CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA DALLAS ELMORE HALE MARENGO MONROE PERRY RANDOLPH SHELBY TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX GAC015-045-055-097-115-129-143-149-223-233-061440- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW CARROLL CHATTOOGA DOUGLAS FLOYD GORDON HARALSON HEARD PAULDING POLK Read more

WW 131 TORNADO AL GA MS 060745Z - 061500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 131 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Southwest Alabama Northwest Georgia Far Southeast Mississippi * Effective this Sunday morning from 245 AM until 1000 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to gradually move southeastward across the Southeast States. Low-level wind fields remain strong, supporting the potential for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes. Additionally, there is also some chance for a few storms ahead of the main line. Environmental conditions suggest that any persistent discrete storms could become supercellular and capable of producing damaging gusts and tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 135 miles southwest of Birmingham AL to 15 miles southeast of Rome GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 128...WW 129...WW 130... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat is possible today across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians into southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Elongated upper troughing currently extends from the central Plains southwestward through northern Mexico. A shortwave trough embedded within this larger upper troughing is currently moving northeastward through OK, while another embedded shortwave trough exists farther west over northwest Mexico. The surface pattern features a modest low over east-central MS, with a cold front extending southwestward through southeast LA. An outflow boundary also intersects this low, extending northeastward into northern GA. An extensive line of thunderstorms exists along these boundaries in relatively continuous line from south-central MS into northeast AL. The parent upper trough is forecast to gradually move eastward throughout the day, likely ending the period extended from the Ozark Plateau into central Mexico, with the embedded shortwaves making farther eastward/northeastward progression as well. The surface low is also expected to move gradually northeastward, with the cold front and associated convective line moving eastward throughout the day. ...Southeast... The airmass downstream of the ongoing convective line mentioned in the synopsis is characterized by dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Thermodynamic profiles are expected to remain relatively warm throughout the day, but the low-level moisture already in place should still support at least modest buoyancy ahead of the line as it progresses eastward. Though the strongest upper-level winds will be behind the front, sufficient mid-level flow parallel to the boundary combined with the modest buoyancy should maintain convective organization. Primary severe risk with this linear convection will be damaging gusts. Moderate to strong low-level flow is expected to persist along and ahead of the convective line as well, resulting in veering low-level wind profiles and enough low-level shear to support embedded supercells capable of wind damage and tornadoes. As mentioned in MCD #425, some near-term (i.e. through mid-morning) increase in convective organization is possible, due to a persistence of the strong low-level flow and deepening meso-low. This increased organization would resultant in a greater potential for strong gusts and/or tornadoes. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the morning/afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce wind damage. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat is possible today across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians into southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Elongated upper troughing currently extends from the central Plains southwestward through northern Mexico. A shortwave trough embedded within this larger upper troughing is currently moving northeastward through OK, while another embedded shortwave trough exists farther west over northwest Mexico. The surface pattern features a modest low over east-central MS, with a cold front extending southwestward through southeast LA. An outflow boundary also intersects this low, extending northeastward into northern GA. An extensive line of thunderstorms exists along these boundaries in relatively continuous line from south-central MS into northeast AL. The parent upper trough is forecast to gradually move eastward throughout the day, likely ending the period extended from the Ozark Plateau into central Mexico, with the embedded shortwaves making farther eastward/northeastward progression as well. The surface low is also expected to move gradually northeastward, with the cold front and associated convective line moving eastward throughout the day. ...Southeast... The airmass downstream of the ongoing convective line mentioned in the synopsis is characterized by dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Thermodynamic profiles are expected to remain relatively warm throughout the day, but the low-level moisture already in place should still support at least modest buoyancy ahead of the line as it progresses eastward. Though the strongest upper-level winds will be behind the front, sufficient mid-level flow parallel to the boundary combined with the modest buoyancy should maintain convective organization. Primary severe risk with this linear convection will be damaging gusts. Moderate to strong low-level flow is expected to persist along and ahead of the convective line as well, resulting in veering low-level wind profiles and enough low-level shear to support embedded supercells capable of wind damage and tornadoes. As mentioned in MCD #425, some near-term (i.e. through mid-morning) increase in convective organization is possible, due to a persistence of the strong low-level flow and deepening meso-low. This increased organization would resultant in a greater potential for strong gusts and/or tornadoes. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the morning/afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce wind damage. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat is possible today across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians into southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Elongated upper troughing currently extends from the central Plains southwestward through northern Mexico. A shortwave trough embedded within this larger upper troughing is currently moving northeastward through OK, while another embedded shortwave trough exists farther west over northwest Mexico. The surface pattern features a modest low over east-central MS, with a cold front extending southwestward through southeast LA. An outflow boundary also intersects this low, extending northeastward into northern GA. An extensive line of thunderstorms exists along these boundaries in relatively continuous line from south-central MS into northeast AL. The parent upper trough is forecast to gradually move eastward throughout the day, likely ending the period extended from the Ozark Plateau into central Mexico, with the embedded shortwaves making farther eastward/northeastward progression as well. The surface low is also expected to move gradually northeastward, with the cold front and associated convective line moving eastward throughout the day. ...Southeast... The airmass downstream of the ongoing convective line mentioned in the synopsis is characterized by dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Thermodynamic profiles are expected to remain relatively warm throughout the day, but the low-level moisture already in place should still support at least modest buoyancy ahead of the line as it progresses eastward. Though the strongest upper-level winds will be behind the front, sufficient mid-level flow parallel to the boundary combined with the modest buoyancy should maintain convective organization. Primary severe risk with this linear convection will be damaging gusts. Moderate to strong low-level flow is expected to persist along and ahead of the convective line as well, resulting in veering low-level wind profiles and enough low-level shear to support embedded supercells capable of wind damage and tornadoes. As mentioned in MCD #425, some near-term (i.e. through mid-morning) increase in convective organization is possible, due to a persistence of the strong low-level flow and deepening meso-low. This increased organization would resultant in a greater potential for strong gusts and/or tornadoes. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the morning/afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce wind damage. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat is possible today across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians into southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Elongated upper troughing currently extends from the central Plains southwestward through northern Mexico. A shortwave trough embedded within this larger upper troughing is currently moving northeastward through OK, while another embedded shortwave trough exists farther west over northwest Mexico. The surface pattern features a modest low over east-central MS, with a cold front extending southwestward through southeast LA. An outflow boundary also intersects this low, extending northeastward into northern GA. An extensive line of thunderstorms exists along these boundaries in relatively continuous line from south-central MS into northeast AL. The parent upper trough is forecast to gradually move eastward throughout the day, likely ending the period extended from the Ozark Plateau into central Mexico, with the embedded shortwaves making farther eastward/northeastward progression as well. The surface low is also expected to move gradually northeastward, with the cold front and associated convective line moving eastward throughout the day. ...Southeast... The airmass downstream of the ongoing convective line mentioned in the synopsis is characterized by dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Thermodynamic profiles are expected to remain relatively warm throughout the day, but the low-level moisture already in place should still support at least modest buoyancy ahead of the line as it progresses eastward. Though the strongest upper-level winds will be behind the front, sufficient mid-level flow parallel to the boundary combined with the modest buoyancy should maintain convective organization. Primary severe risk with this linear convection will be damaging gusts. Moderate to strong low-level flow is expected to persist along and ahead of the convective line as well, resulting in veering low-level wind profiles and enough low-level shear to support embedded supercells capable of wind damage and tornadoes. As mentioned in MCD #425, some near-term (i.e. through mid-morning) increase in convective organization is possible, due to a persistence of the strong low-level flow and deepening meso-low. This increased organization would resultant in a greater potential for strong gusts and/or tornadoes. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the morning/afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce wind damage. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat is possible today across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians into southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Elongated upper troughing currently extends from the central Plains southwestward through northern Mexico. A shortwave trough embedded within this larger upper troughing is currently moving northeastward through OK, while another embedded shortwave trough exists farther west over northwest Mexico. The surface pattern features a modest low over east-central MS, with a cold front extending southwestward through southeast LA. An outflow boundary also intersects this low, extending northeastward into northern GA. An extensive line of thunderstorms exists along these boundaries in relatively continuous line from south-central MS into northeast AL. The parent upper trough is forecast to gradually move eastward throughout the day, likely ending the period extended from the Ozark Plateau into central Mexico, with the embedded shortwaves making farther eastward/northeastward progression as well. The surface low is also expected to move gradually northeastward, with the cold front and associated convective line moving eastward throughout the day. ...Southeast... The airmass downstream of the ongoing convective line mentioned in the synopsis is characterized by dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Thermodynamic profiles are expected to remain relatively warm throughout the day, but the low-level moisture already in place should still support at least modest buoyancy ahead of the line as it progresses eastward. Though the strongest upper-level winds will be behind the front, sufficient mid-level flow parallel to the boundary combined with the modest buoyancy should maintain convective organization. Primary severe risk with this linear convection will be damaging gusts. Moderate to strong low-level flow is expected to persist along and ahead of the convective line as well, resulting in veering low-level wind profiles and enough low-level shear to support embedded supercells capable of wind damage and tornadoes. As mentioned in MCD #425, some near-term (i.e. through mid-morning) increase in convective organization is possible, due to a persistence of the strong low-level flow and deepening meso-low. This increased organization would resultant in a greater potential for strong gusts and/or tornadoes. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the morning/afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce wind damage. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat is possible today across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians into southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Elongated upper troughing currently extends from the central Plains southwestward through northern Mexico. A shortwave trough embedded within this larger upper troughing is currently moving northeastward through OK, while another embedded shortwave trough exists farther west over northwest Mexico. The surface pattern features a modest low over east-central MS, with a cold front extending southwestward through southeast LA. An outflow boundary also intersects this low, extending northeastward into northern GA. An extensive line of thunderstorms exists along these boundaries in relatively continuous line from south-central MS into northeast AL. The parent upper trough is forecast to gradually move eastward throughout the day, likely ending the period extended from the Ozark Plateau into central Mexico, with the embedded shortwaves making farther eastward/northeastward progression as well. The surface low is also expected to move gradually northeastward, with the cold front and associated convective line moving eastward throughout the day. ...Southeast... The airmass downstream of the ongoing convective line mentioned in the synopsis is characterized by dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Thermodynamic profiles are expected to remain relatively warm throughout the day, but the low-level moisture already in place should still support at least modest buoyancy ahead of the line as it progresses eastward. Though the strongest upper-level winds will be behind the front, sufficient mid-level flow parallel to the boundary combined with the modest buoyancy should maintain convective organization. Primary severe risk with this linear convection will be damaging gusts. Moderate to strong low-level flow is expected to persist along and ahead of the convective line as well, resulting in veering low-level wind profiles and enough low-level shear to support embedded supercells capable of wind damage and tornadoes. As mentioned in MCD #425, some near-term (i.e. through mid-morning) increase in convective organization is possible, due to a persistence of the strong low-level flow and deepening meso-low. This increased organization would resultant in a greater potential for strong gusts and/or tornadoes. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the morning/afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce wind damage. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat is possible today across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians into southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Elongated upper troughing currently extends from the central Plains southwestward through northern Mexico. A shortwave trough embedded within this larger upper troughing is currently moving northeastward through OK, while another embedded shortwave trough exists farther west over northwest Mexico. The surface pattern features a modest low over east-central MS, with a cold front extending southwestward through southeast LA. An outflow boundary also intersects this low, extending northeastward into northern GA. An extensive line of thunderstorms exists along these boundaries in relatively continuous line from south-central MS into northeast AL. The parent upper trough is forecast to gradually move eastward throughout the day, likely ending the period extended from the Ozark Plateau into central Mexico, with the embedded shortwaves making farther eastward/northeastward progression as well. The surface low is also expected to move gradually northeastward, with the cold front and associated convective line moving eastward throughout the day. ...Southeast... The airmass downstream of the ongoing convective line mentioned in the synopsis is characterized by dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Thermodynamic profiles are expected to remain relatively warm throughout the day, but the low-level moisture already in place should still support at least modest buoyancy ahead of the line as it progresses eastward. Though the strongest upper-level winds will be behind the front, sufficient mid-level flow parallel to the boundary combined with the modest buoyancy should maintain convective organization. Primary severe risk with this linear convection will be damaging gusts. Moderate to strong low-level flow is expected to persist along and ahead of the convective line as well, resulting in veering low-level wind profiles and enough low-level shear to support embedded supercells capable of wind damage and tornadoes. As mentioned in MCD #425, some near-term (i.e. through mid-morning) increase in convective organization is possible, due to a persistence of the strong low-level flow and deepening meso-low. This increased organization would resultant in a greater potential for strong gusts and/or tornadoes. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the morning/afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce wind damage. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/06/2025 Read more