Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms may occur Tuesday night over extreme southern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Tuesday, a deep upper trough will exist over the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a surface high spreading over much of the eastern CONUS and Gulf of America. To the south, a southern-stream wave will move across the Gulf and into FL overnight. Farther west, upper ridging will occur over the southwestern states, with progressive, low-amplitude shortwave trough affecting the northern Rockies and High Plains. ...Far southern FL... A plume of midlevel moisture will stretch from the eastern Gulf across FL for much of the day, with showers and scattered thunderstorms both ahead of and north of the southward-moving cold front. Forecast soundings reveal weak low-level winds, and marginal levels of instability due to poor lapse rates aloft. For these reasons severe storms are not forecast over most of FL. The exception may be overnight as the upper wave approaches. This may result in increasing low-level winds and shear, though still not strong. However, the increasing lift and moistening may result in a cluster or two of stronger storms, possibly affecting parts of the Keys or extreme southern FL with wind gust potential. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms may occur Tuesday night over extreme southern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Tuesday, a deep upper trough will exist over the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a surface high spreading over much of the eastern CONUS and Gulf of America. To the south, a southern-stream wave will move across the Gulf and into FL overnight. Farther west, upper ridging will occur over the southwestern states, with progressive, low-amplitude shortwave trough affecting the northern Rockies and High Plains. ...Far southern FL... A plume of midlevel moisture will stretch from the eastern Gulf across FL for much of the day, with showers and scattered thunderstorms both ahead of and north of the southward-moving cold front. Forecast soundings reveal weak low-level winds, and marginal levels of instability due to poor lapse rates aloft. For these reasons severe storms are not forecast over most of FL. The exception may be overnight as the upper wave approaches. This may result in increasing low-level winds and shear, though still not strong. However, the increasing lift and moistening may result in a cluster or two of stronger storms, possibly affecting parts of the Keys or extreme southern FL with wind gust potential. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms may occur Tuesday night over extreme southern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Tuesday, a deep upper trough will exist over the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a surface high spreading over much of the eastern CONUS and Gulf of America. To the south, a southern-stream wave will move across the Gulf and into FL overnight. Farther west, upper ridging will occur over the southwestern states, with progressive, low-amplitude shortwave trough affecting the northern Rockies and High Plains. ...Far southern FL... A plume of midlevel moisture will stretch from the eastern Gulf across FL for much of the day, with showers and scattered thunderstorms both ahead of and north of the southward-moving cold front. Forecast soundings reveal weak low-level winds, and marginal levels of instability due to poor lapse rates aloft. For these reasons severe storms are not forecast over most of FL. The exception may be overnight as the upper wave approaches. This may result in increasing low-level winds and shear, though still not strong. However, the increasing lift and moistening may result in a cluster or two of stronger storms, possibly affecting parts of the Keys or extreme southern FL with wind gust potential. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms may occur Tuesday night over extreme southern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Tuesday, a deep upper trough will exist over the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a surface high spreading over much of the eastern CONUS and Gulf of America. To the south, a southern-stream wave will move across the Gulf and into FL overnight. Farther west, upper ridging will occur over the southwestern states, with progressive, low-amplitude shortwave trough affecting the northern Rockies and High Plains. ...Far southern FL... A plume of midlevel moisture will stretch from the eastern Gulf across FL for much of the day, with showers and scattered thunderstorms both ahead of and north of the southward-moving cold front. Forecast soundings reveal weak low-level winds, and marginal levels of instability due to poor lapse rates aloft. For these reasons severe storms are not forecast over most of FL. The exception may be overnight as the upper wave approaches. This may result in increasing low-level winds and shear, though still not strong. However, the increasing lift and moistening may result in a cluster or two of stronger storms, possibly affecting parts of the Keys or extreme southern FL with wind gust potential. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms may occur Tuesday night over extreme southern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Tuesday, a deep upper trough will exist over the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a surface high spreading over much of the eastern CONUS and Gulf of America. To the south, a southern-stream wave will move across the Gulf and into FL overnight. Farther west, upper ridging will occur over the southwestern states, with progressive, low-amplitude shortwave trough affecting the northern Rockies and High Plains. ...Far southern FL... A plume of midlevel moisture will stretch from the eastern Gulf across FL for much of the day, with showers and scattered thunderstorms both ahead of and north of the southward-moving cold front. Forecast soundings reveal weak low-level winds, and marginal levels of instability due to poor lapse rates aloft. For these reasons severe storms are not forecast over most of FL. The exception may be overnight as the upper wave approaches. This may result in increasing low-level winds and shear, though still not strong. However, the increasing lift and moistening may result in a cluster or two of stronger storms, possibly affecting parts of the Keys or extreme southern FL with wind gust potential. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms may occur Tuesday night over extreme southern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Tuesday, a deep upper trough will exist over the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a surface high spreading over much of the eastern CONUS and Gulf of America. To the south, a southern-stream wave will move across the Gulf and into FL overnight. Farther west, upper ridging will occur over the southwestern states, with progressive, low-amplitude shortwave trough affecting the northern Rockies and High Plains. ...Far southern FL... A plume of midlevel moisture will stretch from the eastern Gulf across FL for much of the day, with showers and scattered thunderstorms both ahead of and north of the southward-moving cold front. Forecast soundings reveal weak low-level winds, and marginal levels of instability due to poor lapse rates aloft. For these reasons severe storms are not forecast over most of FL. The exception may be overnight as the upper wave approaches. This may result in increasing low-level winds and shear, though still not strong. However, the increasing lift and moistening may result in a cluster or two of stronger storms, possibly affecting parts of the Keys or extreme southern FL with wind gust potential. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms may occur Tuesday night over extreme southern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Tuesday, a deep upper trough will exist over the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a surface high spreading over much of the eastern CONUS and Gulf of America. To the south, a southern-stream wave will move across the Gulf and into FL overnight. Farther west, upper ridging will occur over the southwestern states, with progressive, low-amplitude shortwave trough affecting the northern Rockies and High Plains. ...Far southern FL... A plume of midlevel moisture will stretch from the eastern Gulf across FL for much of the day, with showers and scattered thunderstorms both ahead of and north of the southward-moving cold front. Forecast soundings reveal weak low-level winds, and marginal levels of instability due to poor lapse rates aloft. For these reasons severe storms are not forecast over most of FL. The exception may be overnight as the upper wave approaches. This may result in increasing low-level winds and shear, though still not strong. However, the increasing lift and moistening may result in a cluster or two of stronger storms, possibly affecting parts of the Keys or extreme southern FL with wind gust potential. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms may occur Tuesday night over extreme southern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Tuesday, a deep upper trough will exist over the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a surface high spreading over much of the eastern CONUS and Gulf of America. To the south, a southern-stream wave will move across the Gulf and into FL overnight. Farther west, upper ridging will occur over the southwestern states, with progressive, low-amplitude shortwave trough affecting the northern Rockies and High Plains. ...Far southern FL... A plume of midlevel moisture will stretch from the eastern Gulf across FL for much of the day, with showers and scattered thunderstorms both ahead of and north of the southward-moving cold front. Forecast soundings reveal weak low-level winds, and marginal levels of instability due to poor lapse rates aloft. For these reasons severe storms are not forecast over most of FL. The exception may be overnight as the upper wave approaches. This may result in increasing low-level winds and shear, though still not strong. However, the increasing lift and moistening may result in a cluster or two of stronger storms, possibly affecting parts of the Keys or extreme southern FL with wind gust potential. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms may occur Tuesday night over extreme southern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Tuesday, a deep upper trough will exist over the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a surface high spreading over much of the eastern CONUS and Gulf of America. To the south, a southern-stream wave will move across the Gulf and into FL overnight. Farther west, upper ridging will occur over the southwestern states, with progressive, low-amplitude shortwave trough affecting the northern Rockies and High Plains. ...Far southern FL... A plume of midlevel moisture will stretch from the eastern Gulf across FL for much of the day, with showers and scattered thunderstorms both ahead of and north of the southward-moving cold front. Forecast soundings reveal weak low-level winds, and marginal levels of instability due to poor lapse rates aloft. For these reasons severe storms are not forecast over most of FL. The exception may be overnight as the upper wave approaches. This may result in increasing low-level winds and shear, though still not strong. However, the increasing lift and moistening may result in a cluster or two of stronger storms, possibly affecting parts of the Keys or extreme southern FL with wind gust potential. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms may occur Tuesday night over extreme southern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Tuesday, a deep upper trough will exist over the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a surface high spreading over much of the eastern CONUS and Gulf of America. To the south, a southern-stream wave will move across the Gulf and into FL overnight. Farther west, upper ridging will occur over the southwestern states, with progressive, low-amplitude shortwave trough affecting the northern Rockies and High Plains. ...Far southern FL... A plume of midlevel moisture will stretch from the eastern Gulf across FL for much of the day, with showers and scattered thunderstorms both ahead of and north of the southward-moving cold front. Forecast soundings reveal weak low-level winds, and marginal levels of instability due to poor lapse rates aloft. For these reasons severe storms are not forecast over most of FL. The exception may be overnight as the upper wave approaches. This may result in increasing low-level winds and shear, though still not strong. However, the increasing lift and moistening may result in a cluster or two of stronger storms, possibly affecting parts of the Keys or extreme southern FL with wind gust potential. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms may occur Tuesday night over extreme southern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Tuesday, a deep upper trough will exist over the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a surface high spreading over much of the eastern CONUS and Gulf of America. To the south, a southern-stream wave will move across the Gulf and into FL overnight. Farther west, upper ridging will occur over the southwestern states, with progressive, low-amplitude shortwave trough affecting the northern Rockies and High Plains. ...Far southern FL... A plume of midlevel moisture will stretch from the eastern Gulf across FL for much of the day, with showers and scattered thunderstorms both ahead of and north of the southward-moving cold front. Forecast soundings reveal weak low-level winds, and marginal levels of instability due to poor lapse rates aloft. For these reasons severe storms are not forecast over most of FL. The exception may be overnight as the upper wave approaches. This may result in increasing low-level winds and shear, though still not strong. However, the increasing lift and moistening may result in a cluster or two of stronger storms, possibly affecting parts of the Keys or extreme southern FL with wind gust potential. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms may occur Tuesday night over extreme southern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Tuesday, a deep upper trough will exist over the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a surface high spreading over much of the eastern CONUS and Gulf of America. To the south, a southern-stream wave will move across the Gulf and into FL overnight. Farther west, upper ridging will occur over the southwestern states, with progressive, low-amplitude shortwave trough affecting the northern Rockies and High Plains. ...Far southern FL... A plume of midlevel moisture will stretch from the eastern Gulf across FL for much of the day, with showers and scattered thunderstorms both ahead of and north of the southward-moving cold front. Forecast soundings reveal weak low-level winds, and marginal levels of instability due to poor lapse rates aloft. For these reasons severe storms are not forecast over most of FL. The exception may be overnight as the upper wave approaches. This may result in increasing low-level winds and shear, though still not strong. However, the increasing lift and moistening may result in a cluster or two of stronger storms, possibly affecting parts of the Keys or extreme southern FL with wind gust potential. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025 Read more

MD 0427 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 132... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE FAR NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0427 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Areas affected...parts of eastern Alabama...western Georgia and the far northern Florida panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 132... Valid 061753Z - 061930Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 132 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes continues this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Across WW132, a broken line of convection with embedded bowing segments was observed across parts of eastern AL and western GA, with newer convection developing across southern AL/southeastern MS. Over the last hour, the southern most of the two prominent bowing segments has largely maintained intensity and will continue to pose a damaging wind and isolated tornado risk through the short term. However, these storms are approaching the eastern edge of the warm sector with the northern bow rapidly weakening. Farther south, the newer portions of the line have increased in intensity somewhat, likely aided by earlier heating and dewpoints near 70F. Some strengthening of the southerly low-level jet (observed from the MOB VAD) should keep shear profiles favorable for organized storms, including bows or embedded supercell structures across much of the warm sector. CAM guidance suggests another bowing segment or more organized cluster could emerge across the southern end of the line in the next few hours. Severe potential (e.g. a couple tornadoes and damaging wind gusts) appears highest with any more organized elements through the remainder of the afternoon as storms move into southern AL and parts of the FL Panhandle over the next few hours. ..Lyons.. 04/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 30668876 32318663 33518514 34188402 34028326 33238355 31588495 30538626 30458632 30358821 30668876 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0132 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 132 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW MOB TO 15 SW MGM TO 20 NNW LGC TO 10 SSE AHN. ..LYONS..04/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 132 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-005-011-013-017-025-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069- 081-087-097-099-109-113-129-062040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CHAMBERS CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON LEE MACON MOBILE MONROE PIKE RUSSELL WASHINGTON FLC033-091-113-062040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GAC035-053-077-113-145-149-151-171-197-199-215-217-231-239-255- Read more

WW 0132 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 132 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW MOB TO 15 SW MGM TO 20 NNW LGC TO 10 SSE AHN. ..LYONS..04/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 132 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-005-011-013-017-025-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069- 081-087-097-099-109-113-129-062040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CHAMBERS CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON LEE MACON MOBILE MONROE PIKE RUSSELL WASHINGTON FLC033-091-113-062040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GAC035-053-077-113-145-149-151-171-197-199-215-217-231-239-255- Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The Elevated fire weather area was expanded slightly south/southeast across portions of the Florida peninsula based on the latest high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. While minimum RH values are forecast to be only marginally lowered (generally near or greater than 40%), sustained south/southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph (with stronger gusts) overlapping receptive fuels (high KBDI and ERC percentiles) will promote at least a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon/evening. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's (Monday's) fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be moving eastward across parts of the southeast US during the day on Monday with a surface low pressure area pushing a cold front southeastward towards Florida. Flow ahead of this surface front may be relatively strong, with gusts of 25-30 mph and RH in the 35-40% range, though there is some uncertainty on the RH values, given surface parcel trajectories off of the warm ocean. This may provide a limiting factor for the fire weather risk. However, given receptive fuels in the area (near 90th percentile ERCs), have included an Elevated area across parts of the Florida peninsula. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The Elevated fire weather area was expanded slightly south/southeast across portions of the Florida peninsula based on the latest high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. While minimum RH values are forecast to be only marginally lowered (generally near or greater than 40%), sustained south/southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph (with stronger gusts) overlapping receptive fuels (high KBDI and ERC percentiles) will promote at least a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon/evening. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's (Monday's) fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be moving eastward across parts of the southeast US during the day on Monday with a surface low pressure area pushing a cold front southeastward towards Florida. Flow ahead of this surface front may be relatively strong, with gusts of 25-30 mph and RH in the 35-40% range, though there is some uncertainty on the RH values, given surface parcel trajectories off of the warm ocean. This may provide a limiting factor for the fire weather risk. However, given receptive fuels in the area (near 90th percentile ERCs), have included an Elevated area across parts of the Florida peninsula. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The Elevated fire weather area was expanded slightly south/southeast across portions of the Florida peninsula based on the latest high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. While minimum RH values are forecast to be only marginally lowered (generally near or greater than 40%), sustained south/southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph (with stronger gusts) overlapping receptive fuels (high KBDI and ERC percentiles) will promote at least a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon/evening. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's (Monday's) fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be moving eastward across parts of the southeast US during the day on Monday with a surface low pressure area pushing a cold front southeastward towards Florida. Flow ahead of this surface front may be relatively strong, with gusts of 25-30 mph and RH in the 35-40% range, though there is some uncertainty on the RH values, given surface parcel trajectories off of the warm ocean. This may provide a limiting factor for the fire weather risk. However, given receptive fuels in the area (near 90th percentile ERCs), have included an Elevated area across parts of the Florida peninsula. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The Elevated fire weather area was expanded slightly south/southeast across portions of the Florida peninsula based on the latest high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. While minimum RH values are forecast to be only marginally lowered (generally near or greater than 40%), sustained south/southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph (with stronger gusts) overlapping receptive fuels (high KBDI and ERC percentiles) will promote at least a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon/evening. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's (Monday's) fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be moving eastward across parts of the southeast US during the day on Monday with a surface low pressure area pushing a cold front southeastward towards Florida. Flow ahead of this surface front may be relatively strong, with gusts of 25-30 mph and RH in the 35-40% range, though there is some uncertainty on the RH values, given surface parcel trajectories off of the warm ocean. This may provide a limiting factor for the fire weather risk. However, given receptive fuels in the area (near 90th percentile ERCs), have included an Elevated area across parts of the Florida peninsula. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The Elevated fire weather area was expanded slightly south/southeast across portions of the Florida peninsula based on the latest high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. While minimum RH values are forecast to be only marginally lowered (generally near or greater than 40%), sustained south/southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph (with stronger gusts) overlapping receptive fuels (high KBDI and ERC percentiles) will promote at least a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon/evening. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's (Monday's) fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be moving eastward across parts of the southeast US during the day on Monday with a surface low pressure area pushing a cold front southeastward towards Florida. Flow ahead of this surface front may be relatively strong, with gusts of 25-30 mph and RH in the 35-40% range, though there is some uncertainty on the RH values, given surface parcel trajectories off of the warm ocean. This may provide a limiting factor for the fire weather risk. However, given receptive fuels in the area (near 90th percentile ERCs), have included an Elevated area across parts of the Florida peninsula. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more