Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the the Middle Mississippi Valley and northern High Plains, though organized severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An amplifying/intensifying midlevel trough will track southeastward from the northern Plains toward the Lower Ohio Valley through the period. A related surface cyclone will advance eastward from the central Plains to the Lower Great Lakes, while a trailing cold front moves eastward across the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough and surface cyclone, low-level moisture will be limited, though cold midlevel temperatures/steep midlevel lapse rates will result in weak instability. Given strengthening DCVA and low-level warm advection, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible, with a focus over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time. Farther west, steep deep-layer lapse rates will contribute to weak buoyancy over the northern High Plains, where ascent in the left-exit region of an upper jet will promote isolated thunderstorms. ..Weinman.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the the Middle Mississippi Valley and northern High Plains, though organized severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An amplifying/intensifying midlevel trough will track southeastward from the northern Plains toward the Lower Ohio Valley through the period. A related surface cyclone will advance eastward from the central Plains to the Lower Great Lakes, while a trailing cold front moves eastward across the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough and surface cyclone, low-level moisture will be limited, though cold midlevel temperatures/steep midlevel lapse rates will result in weak instability. Given strengthening DCVA and low-level warm advection, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible, with a focus over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time. Farther west, steep deep-layer lapse rates will contribute to weak buoyancy over the northern High Plains, where ascent in the left-exit region of an upper jet will promote isolated thunderstorms. ..Weinman.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the the Middle Mississippi Valley and northern High Plains, though organized severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An amplifying/intensifying midlevel trough will track southeastward from the northern Plains toward the Lower Ohio Valley through the period. A related surface cyclone will advance eastward from the central Plains to the Lower Great Lakes, while a trailing cold front moves eastward across the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough and surface cyclone, low-level moisture will be limited, though cold midlevel temperatures/steep midlevel lapse rates will result in weak instability. Given strengthening DCVA and low-level warm advection, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible, with a focus over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time. Farther west, steep deep-layer lapse rates will contribute to weak buoyancy over the northern High Plains, where ascent in the left-exit region of an upper jet will promote isolated thunderstorms. ..Weinman.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the the Middle Mississippi Valley and northern High Plains, though organized severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An amplifying/intensifying midlevel trough will track southeastward from the northern Plains toward the Lower Ohio Valley through the period. A related surface cyclone will advance eastward from the central Plains to the Lower Great Lakes, while a trailing cold front moves eastward across the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough and surface cyclone, low-level moisture will be limited, though cold midlevel temperatures/steep midlevel lapse rates will result in weak instability. Given strengthening DCVA and low-level warm advection, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible, with a focus over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time. Farther west, steep deep-layer lapse rates will contribute to weak buoyancy over the northern High Plains, where ascent in the left-exit region of an upper jet will promote isolated thunderstorms. ..Weinman.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the the Middle Mississippi Valley and northern High Plains, though organized severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An amplifying/intensifying midlevel trough will track southeastward from the northern Plains toward the Lower Ohio Valley through the period. A related surface cyclone will advance eastward from the central Plains to the Lower Great Lakes, while a trailing cold front moves eastward across the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough and surface cyclone, low-level moisture will be limited, though cold midlevel temperatures/steep midlevel lapse rates will result in weak instability. Given strengthening DCVA and low-level warm advection, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible, with a focus over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time. Farther west, steep deep-layer lapse rates will contribute to weak buoyancy over the northern High Plains, where ascent in the left-exit region of an upper jet will promote isolated thunderstorms. ..Weinman.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys on Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Gulf during the day, and overspread the Florida Peninsula during the overnight hours. At the same time, a cold front will move southeastward across southern Florida through the afternoon. Farther west, a low-amplitude midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. ...Southern Florida and the Keys... Along/ahead of the southward-moving cold front, a moist/uncapped air mass will promote showers and thunderstorms across central/southern Florida throughout the day. However, poor midlevel lapse rates/weak instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit storm intensity. By late afternoon into the overnight hours, effective shear will increase to around 30 kt ahead of the midlevel trough, which may promote a couple strong/severe storm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts across far southeast Florida and the Keys. However, deep west-southwesterly flow and a developing frontal wave over the Gulf Stream should tend to focus the stronger storms offshore. ...Northern High Plains... Ahead of the low-amplitude midlevel trough, low/mid-level lapse rates will steepen through the afternoon, while effective shear increases to around 30 kt. Weak instability limits confidence in the severe threat, though locally strong wind gusts could accompany convection as it spreads eastward amid the steep lapse rates through the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys on Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Gulf during the day, and overspread the Florida Peninsula during the overnight hours. At the same time, a cold front will move southeastward across southern Florida through the afternoon. Farther west, a low-amplitude midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. ...Southern Florida and the Keys... Along/ahead of the southward-moving cold front, a moist/uncapped air mass will promote showers and thunderstorms across central/southern Florida throughout the day. However, poor midlevel lapse rates/weak instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit storm intensity. By late afternoon into the overnight hours, effective shear will increase to around 30 kt ahead of the midlevel trough, which may promote a couple strong/severe storm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts across far southeast Florida and the Keys. However, deep west-southwesterly flow and a developing frontal wave over the Gulf Stream should tend to focus the stronger storms offshore. ...Northern High Plains... Ahead of the low-amplitude midlevel trough, low/mid-level lapse rates will steepen through the afternoon, while effective shear increases to around 30 kt. Weak instability limits confidence in the severe threat, though locally strong wind gusts could accompany convection as it spreads eastward amid the steep lapse rates through the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys on Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Gulf during the day, and overspread the Florida Peninsula during the overnight hours. At the same time, a cold front will move southeastward across southern Florida through the afternoon. Farther west, a low-amplitude midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. ...Southern Florida and the Keys... Along/ahead of the southward-moving cold front, a moist/uncapped air mass will promote showers and thunderstorms across central/southern Florida throughout the day. However, poor midlevel lapse rates/weak instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit storm intensity. By late afternoon into the overnight hours, effective shear will increase to around 30 kt ahead of the midlevel trough, which may promote a couple strong/severe storm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts across far southeast Florida and the Keys. However, deep west-southwesterly flow and a developing frontal wave over the Gulf Stream should tend to focus the stronger storms offshore. ...Northern High Plains... Ahead of the low-amplitude midlevel trough, low/mid-level lapse rates will steepen through the afternoon, while effective shear increases to around 30 kt. Weak instability limits confidence in the severe threat, though locally strong wind gusts could accompany convection as it spreads eastward amid the steep lapse rates through the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys on Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Gulf during the day, and overspread the Florida Peninsula during the overnight hours. At the same time, a cold front will move southeastward across southern Florida through the afternoon. Farther west, a low-amplitude midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. ...Southern Florida and the Keys... Along/ahead of the southward-moving cold front, a moist/uncapped air mass will promote showers and thunderstorms across central/southern Florida throughout the day. However, poor midlevel lapse rates/weak instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit storm intensity. By late afternoon into the overnight hours, effective shear will increase to around 30 kt ahead of the midlevel trough, which may promote a couple strong/severe storm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts across far southeast Florida and the Keys. However, deep west-southwesterly flow and a developing frontal wave over the Gulf Stream should tend to focus the stronger storms offshore. ...Northern High Plains... Ahead of the low-amplitude midlevel trough, low/mid-level lapse rates will steepen through the afternoon, while effective shear increases to around 30 kt. Weak instability limits confidence in the severe threat, though locally strong wind gusts could accompany convection as it spreads eastward amid the steep lapse rates through the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys on Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Gulf during the day, and overspread the Florida Peninsula during the overnight hours. At the same time, a cold front will move southeastward across southern Florida through the afternoon. Farther west, a low-amplitude midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. ...Southern Florida and the Keys... Along/ahead of the southward-moving cold front, a moist/uncapped air mass will promote showers and thunderstorms across central/southern Florida throughout the day. However, poor midlevel lapse rates/weak instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit storm intensity. By late afternoon into the overnight hours, effective shear will increase to around 30 kt ahead of the midlevel trough, which may promote a couple strong/severe storm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts across far southeast Florida and the Keys. However, deep west-southwesterly flow and a developing frontal wave over the Gulf Stream should tend to focus the stronger storms offshore. ...Northern High Plains... Ahead of the low-amplitude midlevel trough, low/mid-level lapse rates will steepen through the afternoon, while effective shear increases to around 30 kt. Weak instability limits confidence in the severe threat, though locally strong wind gusts could accompany convection as it spreads eastward amid the steep lapse rates through the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys on Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Gulf during the day, and overspread the Florida Peninsula during the overnight hours. At the same time, a cold front will move southeastward across southern Florida through the afternoon. Farther west, a low-amplitude midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. ...Southern Florida and the Keys... Along/ahead of the southward-moving cold front, a moist/uncapped air mass will promote showers and thunderstorms across central/southern Florida throughout the day. However, poor midlevel lapse rates/weak instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit storm intensity. By late afternoon into the overnight hours, effective shear will increase to around 30 kt ahead of the midlevel trough, which may promote a couple strong/severe storm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts across far southeast Florida and the Keys. However, deep west-southwesterly flow and a developing frontal wave over the Gulf Stream should tend to focus the stronger storms offshore. ...Northern High Plains... Ahead of the low-amplitude midlevel trough, low/mid-level lapse rates will steepen through the afternoon, while effective shear increases to around 30 kt. Weak instability limits confidence in the severe threat, though locally strong wind gusts could accompany convection as it spreads eastward amid the steep lapse rates through the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys on Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Gulf during the day, and overspread the Florida Peninsula during the overnight hours. At the same time, a cold front will move southeastward across southern Florida through the afternoon. Farther west, a low-amplitude midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. ...Southern Florida and the Keys... Along/ahead of the southward-moving cold front, a moist/uncapped air mass will promote showers and thunderstorms across central/southern Florida throughout the day. However, poor midlevel lapse rates/weak instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit storm intensity. By late afternoon into the overnight hours, effective shear will increase to around 30 kt ahead of the midlevel trough, which may promote a couple strong/severe storm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts across far southeast Florida and the Keys. However, deep west-southwesterly flow and a developing frontal wave over the Gulf Stream should tend to focus the stronger storms offshore. ...Northern High Plains... Ahead of the low-amplitude midlevel trough, low/mid-level lapse rates will steepen through the afternoon, while effective shear increases to around 30 kt. Weak instability limits confidence in the severe threat, though locally strong wind gusts could accompany convection as it spreads eastward amid the steep lapse rates through the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys on Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Gulf during the day, and overspread the Florida Peninsula during the overnight hours. At the same time, a cold front will move southeastward across southern Florida through the afternoon. Farther west, a low-amplitude midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. ...Southern Florida and the Keys... Along/ahead of the southward-moving cold front, a moist/uncapped air mass will promote showers and thunderstorms across central/southern Florida throughout the day. However, poor midlevel lapse rates/weak instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit storm intensity. By late afternoon into the overnight hours, effective shear will increase to around 30 kt ahead of the midlevel trough, which may promote a couple strong/severe storm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts across far southeast Florida and the Keys. However, deep west-southwesterly flow and a developing frontal wave over the Gulf Stream should tend to focus the stronger storms offshore. ...Northern High Plains... Ahead of the low-amplitude midlevel trough, low/mid-level lapse rates will steepen through the afternoon, while effective shear increases to around 30 kt. Weak instability limits confidence in the severe threat, though locally strong wind gusts could accompany convection as it spreads eastward amid the steep lapse rates through the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys on Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Gulf during the day, and overspread the Florida Peninsula during the overnight hours. At the same time, a cold front will move southeastward across southern Florida through the afternoon. Farther west, a low-amplitude midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. ...Southern Florida and the Keys... Along/ahead of the southward-moving cold front, a moist/uncapped air mass will promote showers and thunderstorms across central/southern Florida throughout the day. However, poor midlevel lapse rates/weak instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit storm intensity. By late afternoon into the overnight hours, effective shear will increase to around 30 kt ahead of the midlevel trough, which may promote a couple strong/severe storm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts across far southeast Florida and the Keys. However, deep west-southwesterly flow and a developing frontal wave over the Gulf Stream should tend to focus the stronger storms offshore. ...Northern High Plains... Ahead of the low-amplitude midlevel trough, low/mid-level lapse rates will steepen through the afternoon, while effective shear increases to around 30 kt. Weak instability limits confidence in the severe threat, though locally strong wind gusts could accompany convection as it spreads eastward amid the steep lapse rates through the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Mississippi Valley into the East Coast by Tuesday morning. Some intensification of the mid-level jet is expected as it moves from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a weak surface low in the southern Appalachians will deepen as the jet intensifies. This feature will move through western North Carolina and along the North Carolina/Virginia border during the morning/early afternoon. An east-west warm front will accompany the surface low with a cold front extending southwestward into Georgia/North Florida. The cold front will be nearly offshore by late afternoon. ...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/South Carolina... Convection is likely to be ongoing Monday morning in parts of the Southeast and the Florida Panhandle. This activity along the front will progress eastward along with the upper trough. The low-level jet is expected to shift northeastward with time. It is possible that most favorable low-level shear/tornado environment will exist when convection is diurnally weak. That being said, 850 mb winds will still remain moderately strong even into the afternoon. Heating ahead of the convection (promoting around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) may help to reinvigorate it. Effective shear, parallel to the cold front, will be 40-45 kts. Organized storms will likely be mostly linear in character with perhaps embedded supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two would be possible. Poor mid-level lapse rates should mitigate large hail potential, particularly with the expected linear storm modes. ...North Carolina into far southeast Virginia... Along with similarly poor mid-level lapse rates as farther south, stronger warm air advection into warm frontal zone suggests greater potential for early day precipitation and cloud cover. Even so, the track of the surface low may allow rich moisture to remain in northern North Carolina into far southern Virginia. While limited destabilization will most likely keep the threat for isolated wind damage and a brief tornado marginal, the low-level jet will be stronger with northward extent and helicity will be enhanced near the warm front. If greater heating can occur, there a small corridor of higher tornado potential could exist. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Mississippi Valley into the East Coast by Tuesday morning. Some intensification of the mid-level jet is expected as it moves from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a weak surface low in the southern Appalachians will deepen as the jet intensifies. This feature will move through western North Carolina and along the North Carolina/Virginia border during the morning/early afternoon. An east-west warm front will accompany the surface low with a cold front extending southwestward into Georgia/North Florida. The cold front will be nearly offshore by late afternoon. ...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/South Carolina... Convection is likely to be ongoing Monday morning in parts of the Southeast and the Florida Panhandle. This activity along the front will progress eastward along with the upper trough. The low-level jet is expected to shift northeastward with time. It is possible that most favorable low-level shear/tornado environment will exist when convection is diurnally weak. That being said, 850 mb winds will still remain moderately strong even into the afternoon. Heating ahead of the convection (promoting around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) may help to reinvigorate it. Effective shear, parallel to the cold front, will be 40-45 kts. Organized storms will likely be mostly linear in character with perhaps embedded supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two would be possible. Poor mid-level lapse rates should mitigate large hail potential, particularly with the expected linear storm modes. ...North Carolina into far southeast Virginia... Along with similarly poor mid-level lapse rates as farther south, stronger warm air advection into warm frontal zone suggests greater potential for early day precipitation and cloud cover. Even so, the track of the surface low may allow rich moisture to remain in northern North Carolina into far southern Virginia. While limited destabilization will most likely keep the threat for isolated wind damage and a brief tornado marginal, the low-level jet will be stronger with northward extent and helicity will be enhanced near the warm front. If greater heating can occur, there a small corridor of higher tornado potential could exist. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Mississippi Valley into the East Coast by Tuesday morning. Some intensification of the mid-level jet is expected as it moves from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a weak surface low in the southern Appalachians will deepen as the jet intensifies. This feature will move through western North Carolina and along the North Carolina/Virginia border during the morning/early afternoon. An east-west warm front will accompany the surface low with a cold front extending southwestward into Georgia/North Florida. The cold front will be nearly offshore by late afternoon. ...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/South Carolina... Convection is likely to be ongoing Monday morning in parts of the Southeast and the Florida Panhandle. This activity along the front will progress eastward along with the upper trough. The low-level jet is expected to shift northeastward with time. It is possible that most favorable low-level shear/tornado environment will exist when convection is diurnally weak. That being said, 850 mb winds will still remain moderately strong even into the afternoon. Heating ahead of the convection (promoting around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) may help to reinvigorate it. Effective shear, parallel to the cold front, will be 40-45 kts. Organized storms will likely be mostly linear in character with perhaps embedded supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two would be possible. Poor mid-level lapse rates should mitigate large hail potential, particularly with the expected linear storm modes. ...North Carolina into far southeast Virginia... Along with similarly poor mid-level lapse rates as farther south, stronger warm air advection into warm frontal zone suggests greater potential for early day precipitation and cloud cover. Even so, the track of the surface low may allow rich moisture to remain in northern North Carolina into far southern Virginia. While limited destabilization will most likely keep the threat for isolated wind damage and a brief tornado marginal, the low-level jet will be stronger with northward extent and helicity will be enhanced near the warm front. If greater heating can occur, there a small corridor of higher tornado potential could exist. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Mississippi Valley into the East Coast by Tuesday morning. Some intensification of the mid-level jet is expected as it moves from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a weak surface low in the southern Appalachians will deepen as the jet intensifies. This feature will move through western North Carolina and along the North Carolina/Virginia border during the morning/early afternoon. An east-west warm front will accompany the surface low with a cold front extending southwestward into Georgia/North Florida. The cold front will be nearly offshore by late afternoon. ...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/South Carolina... Convection is likely to be ongoing Monday morning in parts of the Southeast and the Florida Panhandle. This activity along the front will progress eastward along with the upper trough. The low-level jet is expected to shift northeastward with time. It is possible that most favorable low-level shear/tornado environment will exist when convection is diurnally weak. That being said, 850 mb winds will still remain moderately strong even into the afternoon. Heating ahead of the convection (promoting around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) may help to reinvigorate it. Effective shear, parallel to the cold front, will be 40-45 kts. Organized storms will likely be mostly linear in character with perhaps embedded supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two would be possible. Poor mid-level lapse rates should mitigate large hail potential, particularly with the expected linear storm modes. ...North Carolina into far southeast Virginia... Along with similarly poor mid-level lapse rates as farther south, stronger warm air advection into warm frontal zone suggests greater potential for early day precipitation and cloud cover. Even so, the track of the surface low may allow rich moisture to remain in northern North Carolina into far southern Virginia. While limited destabilization will most likely keep the threat for isolated wind damage and a brief tornado marginal, the low-level jet will be stronger with northward extent and helicity will be enhanced near the warm front. If greater heating can occur, there a small corridor of higher tornado potential could exist. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Mississippi Valley into the East Coast by Tuesday morning. Some intensification of the mid-level jet is expected as it moves from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a weak surface low in the southern Appalachians will deepen as the jet intensifies. This feature will move through western North Carolina and along the North Carolina/Virginia border during the morning/early afternoon. An east-west warm front will accompany the surface low with a cold front extending southwestward into Georgia/North Florida. The cold front will be nearly offshore by late afternoon. ...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/South Carolina... Convection is likely to be ongoing Monday morning in parts of the Southeast and the Florida Panhandle. This activity along the front will progress eastward along with the upper trough. The low-level jet is expected to shift northeastward with time. It is possible that most favorable low-level shear/tornado environment will exist when convection is diurnally weak. That being said, 850 mb winds will still remain moderately strong even into the afternoon. Heating ahead of the convection (promoting around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) may help to reinvigorate it. Effective shear, parallel to the cold front, will be 40-45 kts. Organized storms will likely be mostly linear in character with perhaps embedded supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two would be possible. Poor mid-level lapse rates should mitigate large hail potential, particularly with the expected linear storm modes. ...North Carolina into far southeast Virginia... Along with similarly poor mid-level lapse rates as farther south, stronger warm air advection into warm frontal zone suggests greater potential for early day precipitation and cloud cover. Even so, the track of the surface low may allow rich moisture to remain in northern North Carolina into far southern Virginia. While limited destabilization will most likely keep the threat for isolated wind damage and a brief tornado marginal, the low-level jet will be stronger with northward extent and helicity will be enhanced near the warm front. If greater heating can occur, there a small corridor of higher tornado potential could exist. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Mississippi Valley into the East Coast by Tuesday morning. Some intensification of the mid-level jet is expected as it moves from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a weak surface low in the southern Appalachians will deepen as the jet intensifies. This feature will move through western North Carolina and along the North Carolina/Virginia border during the morning/early afternoon. An east-west warm front will accompany the surface low with a cold front extending southwestward into Georgia/North Florida. The cold front will be nearly offshore by late afternoon. ...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/South Carolina... Convection is likely to be ongoing Monday morning in parts of the Southeast and the Florida Panhandle. This activity along the front will progress eastward along with the upper trough. The low-level jet is expected to shift northeastward with time. It is possible that most favorable low-level shear/tornado environment will exist when convection is diurnally weak. That being said, 850 mb winds will still remain moderately strong even into the afternoon. Heating ahead of the convection (promoting around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) may help to reinvigorate it. Effective shear, parallel to the cold front, will be 40-45 kts. Organized storms will likely be mostly linear in character with perhaps embedded supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two would be possible. Poor mid-level lapse rates should mitigate large hail potential, particularly with the expected linear storm modes. ...North Carolina into far southeast Virginia... Along with similarly poor mid-level lapse rates as farther south, stronger warm air advection into warm frontal zone suggests greater potential for early day precipitation and cloud cover. Even so, the track of the surface low may allow rich moisture to remain in northern North Carolina into far southern Virginia. While limited destabilization will most likely keep the threat for isolated wind damage and a brief tornado marginal, the low-level jet will be stronger with northward extent and helicity will be enhanced near the warm front. If greater heating can occur, there a small corridor of higher tornado potential could exist. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 Read more