SPC Apr 7, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

5 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the the Middle Mississippi Valley and northern High Plains, though severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Wednesday, an upper trough will dive southeastward from the northern Plains into the mid MS/OH Valleys, as an upper high builds over the West. High pressure will exist behind an exiting northeastern trough, and ahead of the Plains trough. As such, this system will interact with very limited moisture and instability. A plume of low-level lapse rates/heating will develop late in the day from KS into MO, toward an area of low pressure. This low will travel east toward IN by 12Z Thursday, with a strong cold front extending south into LA and MS by that time. Though only weakly unstable, thunderstorms are expected over parts of the mid MS Valley to the lower OH Valley. Forecast soundings depict a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE, with relatively dry sub-cloud layers and strong shear. While strong gusts cannot be ruled out with some of the convection, the overall threat appears low. ..Jewell.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC MD 435

5 months 1 week ago
MD 0435 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PATS OF THE CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0435 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Areas affected...pats of the Carolinas and far southern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071718Z - 071915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A band of scattered thunderstorms may pose a damaging wind risk this afternoon. A brief tornado will also be possible. A WW is being considered. DISCUSSION...As of 1715 UTC regional visible and radar imagery show some convective development taking place near a weak frontal low and along a cold front across portions of the western Carolinas and far southern VA. Filtered diurnal heating is raising surface temperatures to near 80 east of fairly expansive cloud cover near the front. Surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s F are contributing to weak buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE from SPC mesoanalysis) despite weak mid-level lapse rates less than 7 C/km. As heating and lift from the front/upper trough continues, scattered thunderstorms may gradually intensify this afternoon. Current obs show low-level flow is veering, but remains somewhat strong around 15-20 kt. With moderately strong deep-layer shear in place, some storm organization into bands or clusters is possible. Stronger low-level flow may also support transient updraft rotation, especially near the east-west warm front where winds are more backed across parts of northern NC and southern VA. As storms gradually develop through this afternoon, a few more robust clusters or line segments may emerge. This would support some potential for damaging gusts given the strong background flow. The tornado risk is much more uncertain, but the strong deep-layer shear and some enhanced low-level shear near the warm front could support a brief tornado with the stronger rotating storms. Confidence in the coverage of severe storms is low, owing the relatively limited CAPE and poor lapse rate profiles. Still, an isolated risk may emerge this afternoon. Conditions are being monitored for a possible weather watch. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 33648162 35847952 36747758 36687618 36387573 35507571 34567721 34217822 33857904 33308020 33648162 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 133 Status Reports

5 months 1 week ago
WW 0133 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 133 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE AAF TO 20 WNW AYS TO 10 WSW AGS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0436 ..THOMPSON..04/07/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...CHS...CAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 133 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC047-067-079-121-123-071940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HAMILTON LAFAYETTE MADISON SUWANNEE TAYLOR GAC001-003-005-025-029-031-033-043-049-051-065-069-091-101-103- 107-109-125-161-163-165-167-175-179-183-185-209-229-251-267-271- 279-283-299-303-305-309-315-071940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING ATKINSON BACON BRANTLEY BRYAN BULLOCH BURKE CANDLER CHARLTON CHATHAM CLINCH COFFEE DODGE ECHOLS EFFINGHAM EMANUEL EVANS GLASCOCK JEFF DAVIS JEFFERSON JENKINS Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 133 Status Reports

5 months 1 week ago
WW 0133 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 133 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE AAF TO 20 WNW AYS TO 10 WSW AGS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0436 ..THOMPSON..04/07/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...CHS...CAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 133 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC047-067-079-121-123-071940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HAMILTON LAFAYETTE MADISON SUWANNEE TAYLOR GAC001-003-005-025-029-031-033-043-049-051-065-069-091-101-103- 107-109-125-161-163-165-167-175-179-183-185-209-229-251-267-271- 279-283-299-303-305-309-315-071940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING ATKINSON BACON BRANTLEY BRYAN BULLOCH BURKE CANDLER CHARLTON CHATHAM CLINCH COFFEE DODGE ECHOLS EFFINGHAM EMANUEL EVANS GLASCOCK JEFF DAVIS JEFFERSON JENKINS Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 133 Status Reports

5 months 1 week ago
WW 0133 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 133 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE AAF TO 30 S MGR TO 25 WSW VDI TO 15 W AGS. ..THOMPSON..04/07/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...CHS...CAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 133 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC037-039-045-047-065-067-073-077-079-121-123-129-071840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF HAMILTON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY MADISON SUWANNEE TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC001-003-005-017-019-025-027-029-031-033-043-049-051-065-069- 071-075-087-091-101-103-107-109-125-131-155-161-163-165-167-173- 175-179-183-185-205-209-229-251-267-271-275-277-279-283-287-299- 303-305-309-315-321-071840- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING ATKINSON BACON BEN HILL BERRIEN BRANTLEY BROOKS BRYAN BULLOCH BURKE CANDLER CHARLTON CHATHAM CLINCH COFFEE COLQUITT COOK DECATUR Read more

SPC Apr 7, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

5 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast Montana to Black Hills. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or locally strong gusts will be possible. Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into the Bahamas. Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 7, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

5 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast Montana to Black Hills. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or locally strong gusts will be possible. Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into the Bahamas. Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 7, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

5 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast Montana to Black Hills. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or locally strong gusts will be possible. Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into the Bahamas. Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 7, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

5 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast Montana to Black Hills. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or locally strong gusts will be possible. Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into the Bahamas. Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 7, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

5 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast Montana to Black Hills. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or locally strong gusts will be possible. Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into the Bahamas. Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 7, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

5 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast Montana to Black Hills. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or locally strong gusts will be possible. Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into the Bahamas. Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 7, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

5 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast Montana to Black Hills. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or locally strong gusts will be possible. Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into the Bahamas. Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 7, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

5 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast Montana to Black Hills. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or locally strong gusts will be possible. Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into the Bahamas. Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 7, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

5 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast Montana to Black Hills. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or locally strong gusts will be possible. Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into the Bahamas. Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 7, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

5 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast Montana to Black Hills. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or locally strong gusts will be possible. Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into the Bahamas. Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 7, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

5 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast Montana to Black Hills. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or locally strong gusts will be possible. Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into the Bahamas. Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 7, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

5 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast Montana to Black Hills. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or locally strong gusts will be possible. Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into the Bahamas. Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 04/07/2025 Read more
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