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5 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the the Middle
Mississippi Valley and northern High Plains, though severe storms
are not expected.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Wednesday, an upper trough will dive southeastward from the
northern Plains into the mid MS/OH Valleys, as an upper high builds
over the West. High pressure will exist behind an exiting
northeastern trough, and ahead of the Plains trough. As such, this
system will interact with very limited moisture and instability.
A plume of low-level lapse rates/heating will develop late in the
day from KS into MO, toward an area of low pressure. This low will
travel east toward IN by 12Z Thursday, with a strong cold front
extending south into LA and MS by that time.
Though only weakly unstable, thunderstorms are expected over parts
of the mid MS Valley to the lower OH Valley. Forecast soundings
depict a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE, with relatively dry sub-cloud
layers and strong shear. While strong gusts cannot be ruled out with
some of the convection, the overall threat appears low.
..Jewell.. 04/07/2025
Read more
5 months 1 week ago
MD 0435 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PATS OF THE CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0435
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025
Areas affected...pats of the Carolinas and far southern Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 071718Z - 071915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A band of scattered thunderstorms may pose a damaging wind
risk this afternoon. A brief tornado will also be possible. A WW is
being considered.
DISCUSSION...As of 1715 UTC regional visible and radar imagery show
some convective development taking place near a weak frontal low and
along a cold front across portions of the western Carolinas and far
southern VA. Filtered diurnal heating is raising surface
temperatures to near 80 east of fairly expansive cloud cover near
the front. Surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s F are
contributing to weak buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE from SPC
mesoanalysis) despite weak mid-level lapse rates less than 7 C/km.
As heating and lift from the front/upper trough continues, scattered
thunderstorms may gradually intensify this afternoon. Current obs
show low-level flow is veering, but remains somewhat strong around
15-20 kt. With moderately strong deep-layer shear in place, some
storm organization into bands or clusters is possible. Stronger
low-level flow may also support transient updraft rotation,
especially near the east-west warm front where winds are more backed
across parts of northern NC and southern VA.
As storms gradually develop through this afternoon, a few more
robust clusters or line segments may emerge. This would support some
potential for damaging gusts given the strong background flow. The
tornado risk is much more uncertain, but the strong deep-layer shear
and some enhanced low-level shear near the warm front could support
a brief tornado with the stronger rotating storms. Confidence in the
coverage of severe storms is low, owing the relatively limited CAPE
and poor lapse rate profiles. Still, an isolated risk may emerge
this afternoon. Conditions are being monitored for a possible
weather watch.
..Lyons/Guyer.. 04/07/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 33648162 35847952 36747758 36687618 36387573 35507571
34567721 34217822 33857904 33308020 33648162
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
Read more
5 months 1 week ago
WW 0133 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 133
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE AAF
TO 20 WNW AYS TO 10 WSW AGS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0436
..THOMPSON..04/07/25
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...CHS...CAE...FFC...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 133
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC047-067-079-121-123-071940-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HAMILTON LAFAYETTE MADISON
SUWANNEE TAYLOR
GAC001-003-005-025-029-031-033-043-049-051-065-069-091-101-103-
107-109-125-161-163-165-167-175-179-183-185-209-229-251-267-271-
279-283-299-303-305-309-315-071940-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPLING ATKINSON BACON
BRANTLEY BRYAN BULLOCH
BURKE CANDLER CHARLTON
CHATHAM CLINCH COFFEE
DODGE ECHOLS EFFINGHAM
EMANUEL EVANS GLASCOCK
JEFF DAVIS JEFFERSON JENKINS
Read more
5 months 1 week ago
WW 0133 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 133
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE AAF
TO 20 WNW AYS TO 10 WSW AGS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0436
..THOMPSON..04/07/25
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...CHS...CAE...FFC...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 133
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC047-067-079-121-123-071940-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HAMILTON LAFAYETTE MADISON
SUWANNEE TAYLOR
GAC001-003-005-025-029-031-033-043-049-051-065-069-091-101-103-
107-109-125-161-163-165-167-175-179-183-185-209-229-251-267-271-
279-283-299-303-305-309-315-071940-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPLING ATKINSON BACON
BRANTLEY BRYAN BULLOCH
BURKE CANDLER CHARLTON
CHATHAM CLINCH COFFEE
DODGE ECHOLS EFFINGHAM
EMANUEL EVANS GLASCOCK
JEFF DAVIS JEFFERSON JENKINS
Read more
5 months 1 week ago
WW 0134 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0134 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
5 months 1 week ago
WW 0134 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0134 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
5 months 1 week ago
WW 0134 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0134 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
5 months 1 week ago
WW 0133 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 133
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE AAF
TO 30 S MGR TO 25 WSW VDI TO 15 W AGS.
..THOMPSON..04/07/25
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...CHS...CAE...FFC...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 133
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC037-039-045-047-065-067-073-077-079-121-123-129-071840-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF
HAMILTON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LEON LIBERTY MADISON
SUWANNEE TAYLOR WAKULLA
GAC001-003-005-017-019-025-027-029-031-033-043-049-051-065-069-
071-075-087-091-101-103-107-109-125-131-155-161-163-165-167-173-
175-179-183-185-205-209-229-251-267-271-275-277-279-283-287-299-
303-305-309-315-321-071840-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPLING ATKINSON BACON
BEN HILL BERRIEN BRANTLEY
BROOKS BRYAN BULLOCH
BURKE CANDLER CHARLTON
CHATHAM CLINCH COFFEE
COLQUITT COOK DECATUR
Read more
5 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the
Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast
Montana to Black Hills.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while
a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield
MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime
storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse
rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the
upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the
stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from
boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or
locally strong gusts will be possible.
Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max
approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in
increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into
the Bahamas.
Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from
southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep
lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms
forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing
small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds.
..Jewell.. 04/07/2025
Read more
5 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the
Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast
Montana to Black Hills.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while
a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield
MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime
storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse
rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the
upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the
stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from
boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or
locally strong gusts will be possible.
Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max
approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in
increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into
the Bahamas.
Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from
southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep
lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms
forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing
small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds.
..Jewell.. 04/07/2025
Read more
5 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the
Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast
Montana to Black Hills.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while
a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield
MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime
storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse
rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the
upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the
stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from
boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or
locally strong gusts will be possible.
Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max
approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in
increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into
the Bahamas.
Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from
southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep
lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms
forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing
small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds.
..Jewell.. 04/07/2025
Read more
5 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the
Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast
Montana to Black Hills.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while
a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield
MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime
storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse
rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the
upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the
stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from
boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or
locally strong gusts will be possible.
Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max
approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in
increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into
the Bahamas.
Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from
southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep
lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms
forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing
small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds.
..Jewell.. 04/07/2025
Read more
5 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the
Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast
Montana to Black Hills.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while
a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield
MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime
storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse
rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the
upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the
stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from
boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or
locally strong gusts will be possible.
Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max
approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in
increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into
the Bahamas.
Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from
southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep
lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms
forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing
small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds.
..Jewell.. 04/07/2025
Read more
5 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the
Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast
Montana to Black Hills.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while
a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield
MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime
storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse
rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the
upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the
stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from
boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or
locally strong gusts will be possible.
Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max
approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in
increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into
the Bahamas.
Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from
southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep
lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms
forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing
small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds.
..Jewell.. 04/07/2025
Read more
5 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the
Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast
Montana to Black Hills.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while
a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield
MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime
storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse
rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the
upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the
stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from
boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or
locally strong gusts will be possible.
Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max
approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in
increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into
the Bahamas.
Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from
southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep
lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms
forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing
small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds.
..Jewell.. 04/07/2025
Read more
5 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the
Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast
Montana to Black Hills.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while
a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield
MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime
storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse
rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the
upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the
stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from
boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or
locally strong gusts will be possible.
Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max
approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in
increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into
the Bahamas.
Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from
southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep
lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms
forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing
small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds.
..Jewell.. 04/07/2025
Read more
5 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the
Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast
Montana to Black Hills.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while
a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield
MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime
storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse
rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the
upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the
stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from
boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or
locally strong gusts will be possible.
Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max
approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in
increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into
the Bahamas.
Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from
southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep
lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms
forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing
small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds.
..Jewell.. 04/07/2025
Read more
5 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the
Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast
Montana to Black Hills.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while
a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield
MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime
storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse
rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the
upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the
stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from
boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or
locally strong gusts will be possible.
Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max
approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in
increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into
the Bahamas.
Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from
southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep
lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms
forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing
small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds.
..Jewell.. 04/07/2025
Read more
5 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the
Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast
Montana to Black Hills.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while
a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield
MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime
storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse
rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the
upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the
stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from
boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or
locally strong gusts will be possible.
Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max
approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in
increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into
the Bahamas.
Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from
southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep
lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms
forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing
small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds.
..Jewell.. 04/07/2025
Read more
5 months 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the
Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast
Montana to Black Hills.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while
a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield
MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime
storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse
rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the
upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the
stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from
boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or
locally strong gusts will be possible.
Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max
approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in
increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into
the Bahamas.
Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from
southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep
lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms
forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing
small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds.
..Jewell.. 04/07/2025
Read more
Checked
5 years 11 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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