Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast Montana to Black Hills. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or locally strong gusts will be possible. Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into the Bahamas. Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast Montana to Black Hills. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or locally strong gusts will be possible. Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into the Bahamas. Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast Montana to Black Hills. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or locally strong gusts will be possible. Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into the Bahamas. Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast Montana to Black Hills. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or locally strong gusts will be possible. Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into the Bahamas. Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast Montana to Black Hills. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or locally strong gusts will be possible. Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into the Bahamas. Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast Montana to Black Hills. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or locally strong gusts will be possible. Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into the Bahamas. Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 04/07/2025 Read more

MD 0434 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 133... FOR EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0434 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1037 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Florida Panhandle into south central Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 133... Valid 071537Z - 071700Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 133 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes and wind damage will persist with embedded supercells through early afternoon. DISCUSSION...A pre-frontal band of convection, with embedded supercell structures, has showed signs of slow intensification from mid-late morning from the FL Panhandle into south central GA. Surface heating in advance of the convective band, along with sufficient deep-layer shear and low-level hodograph curvature per regional VWPs, will maintain embedded supercell structures and the threat for tornadoes (as confirmed by recent TDSs in Thomas Co. GA and Leon Co. FL) and occasional wind damage. Likewise, modest forcing for ascent along the pre-frontal band will also favor line breaks and semi-discrete storms within the band through early afternoon. ..Thompson.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 29978360 29658456 29818501 31088414 31798342 32038287 31998234 31778215 30938264 29978360 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0133 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 133 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SW AAF TO 15 N TLH TO 45 NNE MGR TO 35 ESE MCN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0000 ..THOMPSON..04/07/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...CHS...CAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 133 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC037-039-045-047-065-067-073-077-079-121-123-129-071740- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF HAMILTON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY MADISON SUWANNEE TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC001-003-005-017-019-025-027-029-031-033-043-049-051-065-069- 071-075-087-091-101-103-107-109-125-131-155-161-163-165-167-173- 175-179-183-185-205-209-229-251-267-271-275-277-279-283-287-299- 303-305-309-315-321-071740- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING ATKINSON BACON BEN HILL BERRIEN BRANTLEY BROOKS BRYAN BULLOCH BURKE CANDLER CHARLTON Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to the Carolinas. ...Northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to Carolinas... The region will be influenced by an upstream positive-tilt trough with strong deep-layer flow extending into the warm sector across the Southeast, where a moderately moist airmass resides beneath relatively poor lapse rates aloft. Preceding a northeastward-transitioning sub-synoptic low, a northeast/southwest-oriented broken line/cluster of storms exists across east-central Georgia to south-central/southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle as of midday. Multiple radar TDSs have recently (mid/late morning) been observed in southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle within Tornado Watch 133. A moist air mass exists ahead of these storms with near 70F dewpoints across northern Florida into Georgia, and 60s F dewpoints into the Carolinas coincident with ample heating/insolation especially for coastal areas. Some additional strengthening of already strong (45+ kt) southwesterly winds in the 1-3km AGL layer, oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective line, will continue to support embedded supercells and bows capable of tornadoes and damaging winds through the afternoon, with the overall potential expected to diminish by around sunset. Deeper convection is also expected to expand north/northeastward along the front as it moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear convective mode is expected with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggests some tornado potential will also exist. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to the Carolinas. ...Northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to Carolinas... The region will be influenced by an upstream positive-tilt trough with strong deep-layer flow extending into the warm sector across the Southeast, where a moderately moist airmass resides beneath relatively poor lapse rates aloft. Preceding a northeastward-transitioning sub-synoptic low, a northeast/southwest-oriented broken line/cluster of storms exists across east-central Georgia to south-central/southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle as of midday. Multiple radar TDSs have recently (mid/late morning) been observed in southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle within Tornado Watch 133. A moist air mass exists ahead of these storms with near 70F dewpoints across northern Florida into Georgia, and 60s F dewpoints into the Carolinas coincident with ample heating/insolation especially for coastal areas. Some additional strengthening of already strong (45+ kt) southwesterly winds in the 1-3km AGL layer, oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective line, will continue to support embedded supercells and bows capable of tornadoes and damaging winds through the afternoon, with the overall potential expected to diminish by around sunset. Deeper convection is also expected to expand north/northeastward along the front as it moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear convective mode is expected with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggests some tornado potential will also exist. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to the Carolinas. ...Northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to Carolinas... The region will be influenced by an upstream positive-tilt trough with strong deep-layer flow extending into the warm sector across the Southeast, where a moderately moist airmass resides beneath relatively poor lapse rates aloft. Preceding a northeastward-transitioning sub-synoptic low, a northeast/southwest-oriented broken line/cluster of storms exists across east-central Georgia to south-central/southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle as of midday. Multiple radar TDSs have recently (mid/late morning) been observed in southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle within Tornado Watch 133. A moist air mass exists ahead of these storms with near 70F dewpoints across northern Florida into Georgia, and 60s F dewpoints into the Carolinas coincident with ample heating/insolation especially for coastal areas. Some additional strengthening of already strong (45+ kt) southwesterly winds in the 1-3km AGL layer, oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective line, will continue to support embedded supercells and bows capable of tornadoes and damaging winds through the afternoon, with the overall potential expected to diminish by around sunset. Deeper convection is also expected to expand north/northeastward along the front as it moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear convective mode is expected with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggests some tornado potential will also exist. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to the Carolinas. ...Northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to Carolinas... The region will be influenced by an upstream positive-tilt trough with strong deep-layer flow extending into the warm sector across the Southeast, where a moderately moist airmass resides beneath relatively poor lapse rates aloft. Preceding a northeastward-transitioning sub-synoptic low, a northeast/southwest-oriented broken line/cluster of storms exists across east-central Georgia to south-central/southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle as of midday. Multiple radar TDSs have recently (mid/late morning) been observed in southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle within Tornado Watch 133. A moist air mass exists ahead of these storms with near 70F dewpoints across northern Florida into Georgia, and 60s F dewpoints into the Carolinas coincident with ample heating/insolation especially for coastal areas. Some additional strengthening of already strong (45+ kt) southwesterly winds in the 1-3km AGL layer, oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective line, will continue to support embedded supercells and bows capable of tornadoes and damaging winds through the afternoon, with the overall potential expected to diminish by around sunset. Deeper convection is also expected to expand north/northeastward along the front as it moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear convective mode is expected with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggests some tornado potential will also exist. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to the Carolinas. ...Northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to Carolinas... The region will be influenced by an upstream positive-tilt trough with strong deep-layer flow extending into the warm sector across the Southeast, where a moderately moist airmass resides beneath relatively poor lapse rates aloft. Preceding a northeastward-transitioning sub-synoptic low, a northeast/southwest-oriented broken line/cluster of storms exists across east-central Georgia to south-central/southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle as of midday. Multiple radar TDSs have recently (mid/late morning) been observed in southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle within Tornado Watch 133. A moist air mass exists ahead of these storms with near 70F dewpoints across northern Florida into Georgia, and 60s F dewpoints into the Carolinas coincident with ample heating/insolation especially for coastal areas. Some additional strengthening of already strong (45+ kt) southwesterly winds in the 1-3km AGL layer, oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective line, will continue to support embedded supercells and bows capable of tornadoes and damaging winds through the afternoon, with the overall potential expected to diminish by around sunset. Deeper convection is also expected to expand north/northeastward along the front as it moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear convective mode is expected with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggests some tornado potential will also exist. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to the Carolinas. ...Northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to Carolinas... The region will be influenced by an upstream positive-tilt trough with strong deep-layer flow extending into the warm sector across the Southeast, where a moderately moist airmass resides beneath relatively poor lapse rates aloft. Preceding a northeastward-transitioning sub-synoptic low, a northeast/southwest-oriented broken line/cluster of storms exists across east-central Georgia to south-central/southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle as of midday. Multiple radar TDSs have recently (mid/late morning) been observed in southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle within Tornado Watch 133. A moist air mass exists ahead of these storms with near 70F dewpoints across northern Florida into Georgia, and 60s F dewpoints into the Carolinas coincident with ample heating/insolation especially for coastal areas. Some additional strengthening of already strong (45+ kt) southwesterly winds in the 1-3km AGL layer, oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective line, will continue to support embedded supercells and bows capable of tornadoes and damaging winds through the afternoon, with the overall potential expected to diminish by around sunset. Deeper convection is also expected to expand north/northeastward along the front as it moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear convective mode is expected with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggests some tornado potential will also exist. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to the Carolinas. ...Northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to Carolinas... The region will be influenced by an upstream positive-tilt trough with strong deep-layer flow extending into the warm sector across the Southeast, where a moderately moist airmass resides beneath relatively poor lapse rates aloft. Preceding a northeastward-transitioning sub-synoptic low, a northeast/southwest-oriented broken line/cluster of storms exists across east-central Georgia to south-central/southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle as of midday. Multiple radar TDSs have recently (mid/late morning) been observed in southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle within Tornado Watch 133. A moist air mass exists ahead of these storms with near 70F dewpoints across northern Florida into Georgia, and 60s F dewpoints into the Carolinas coincident with ample heating/insolation especially for coastal areas. Some additional strengthening of already strong (45+ kt) southwesterly winds in the 1-3km AGL layer, oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective line, will continue to support embedded supercells and bows capable of tornadoes and damaging winds through the afternoon, with the overall potential expected to diminish by around sunset. Deeper convection is also expected to expand north/northeastward along the front as it moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear convective mode is expected with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggests some tornado potential will also exist. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to the Carolinas. ...Northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to Carolinas... The region will be influenced by an upstream positive-tilt trough with strong deep-layer flow extending into the warm sector across the Southeast, where a moderately moist airmass resides beneath relatively poor lapse rates aloft. Preceding a northeastward-transitioning sub-synoptic low, a northeast/southwest-oriented broken line/cluster of storms exists across east-central Georgia to south-central/southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle as of midday. Multiple radar TDSs have recently (mid/late morning) been observed in southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle within Tornado Watch 133. A moist air mass exists ahead of these storms with near 70F dewpoints across northern Florida into Georgia, and 60s F dewpoints into the Carolinas coincident with ample heating/insolation especially for coastal areas. Some additional strengthening of already strong (45+ kt) southwesterly winds in the 1-3km AGL layer, oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective line, will continue to support embedded supercells and bows capable of tornadoes and damaging winds through the afternoon, with the overall potential expected to diminish by around sunset. Deeper convection is also expected to expand north/northeastward along the front as it moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear convective mode is expected with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggests some tornado potential will also exist. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to the Carolinas. ...Northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to Carolinas... The region will be influenced by an upstream positive-tilt trough with strong deep-layer flow extending into the warm sector across the Southeast, where a moderately moist airmass resides beneath relatively poor lapse rates aloft. Preceding a northeastward-transitioning sub-synoptic low, a northeast/southwest-oriented broken line/cluster of storms exists across east-central Georgia to south-central/southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle as of midday. Multiple radar TDSs have recently (mid/late morning) been observed in southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle within Tornado Watch 133. A moist air mass exists ahead of these storms with near 70F dewpoints across northern Florida into Georgia, and 60s F dewpoints into the Carolinas coincident with ample heating/insolation especially for coastal areas. Some additional strengthening of already strong (45+ kt) southwesterly winds in the 1-3km AGL layer, oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective line, will continue to support embedded supercells and bows capable of tornadoes and damaging winds through the afternoon, with the overall potential expected to diminish by around sunset. Deeper convection is also expected to expand north/northeastward along the front as it moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear convective mode is expected with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggests some tornado potential will also exist. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to the Carolinas. ...Northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to Carolinas... The region will be influenced by an upstream positive-tilt trough with strong deep-layer flow extending into the warm sector across the Southeast, where a moderately moist airmass resides beneath relatively poor lapse rates aloft. Preceding a northeastward-transitioning sub-synoptic low, a northeast/southwest-oriented broken line/cluster of storms exists across east-central Georgia to south-central/southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle as of midday. Multiple radar TDSs have recently (mid/late morning) been observed in southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle within Tornado Watch 133. A moist air mass exists ahead of these storms with near 70F dewpoints across northern Florida into Georgia, and 60s F dewpoints into the Carolinas coincident with ample heating/insolation especially for coastal areas. Some additional strengthening of already strong (45+ kt) southwesterly winds in the 1-3km AGL layer, oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective line, will continue to support embedded supercells and bows capable of tornadoes and damaging winds through the afternoon, with the overall potential expected to diminish by around sunset. Deeper convection is also expected to expand north/northeastward along the front as it moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear convective mode is expected with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggests some tornado potential will also exist. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to the Carolinas. ...Northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to Carolinas... The region will be influenced by an upstream positive-tilt trough with strong deep-layer flow extending into the warm sector across the Southeast, where a moderately moist airmass resides beneath relatively poor lapse rates aloft. Preceding a northeastward-transitioning sub-synoptic low, a northeast/southwest-oriented broken line/cluster of storms exists across east-central Georgia to south-central/southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle as of midday. Multiple radar TDSs have recently (mid/late morning) been observed in southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle within Tornado Watch 133. A moist air mass exists ahead of these storms with near 70F dewpoints across northern Florida into Georgia, and 60s F dewpoints into the Carolinas coincident with ample heating/insolation especially for coastal areas. Some additional strengthening of already strong (45+ kt) southwesterly winds in the 1-3km AGL layer, oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective line, will continue to support embedded supercells and bows capable of tornadoes and damaging winds through the afternoon, with the overall potential expected to diminish by around sunset. Deeper convection is also expected to expand north/northeastward along the front as it moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear convective mode is expected with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggests some tornado potential will also exist. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to the Carolinas. ...Northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to Carolinas... The region will be influenced by an upstream positive-tilt trough with strong deep-layer flow extending into the warm sector across the Southeast, where a moderately moist airmass resides beneath relatively poor lapse rates aloft. Preceding a northeastward-transitioning sub-synoptic low, a northeast/southwest-oriented broken line/cluster of storms exists across east-central Georgia to south-central/southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle as of midday. Multiple radar TDSs have recently (mid/late morning) been observed in southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle within Tornado Watch 133. A moist air mass exists ahead of these storms with near 70F dewpoints across northern Florida into Georgia, and 60s F dewpoints into the Carolinas coincident with ample heating/insolation especially for coastal areas. Some additional strengthening of already strong (45+ kt) southwesterly winds in the 1-3km AGL layer, oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective line, will continue to support embedded supercells and bows capable of tornadoes and damaging winds through the afternoon, with the overall potential expected to diminish by around sunset. Deeper convection is also expected to expand north/northeastward along the front as it moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear convective mode is expected with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggests some tornado potential will also exist. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/07/2025 Read more