Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Increasing mid-level westerly flow across the Intermountain West will promote leeward cyclone development across the central High Plains through D2/Tuesday. As a result, enhanced downslope winds are expected from the west-northwest of 15-25 mph within a dry air mass across portions of southeastern Wyoming, northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska. Recent guidance from land management agencies indicate some fuels are still in place for fire spread so elevated highlights were introduced. Similarly dry southwest flow of 15-25 mph across portions of west Texas are expected but fuels dryness remains subdued owing to recent widespread, wetting rains. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will transition toward more zonal flow tomorrow (Tuesday) as surface high pressure overspreads the eastern U.S. and a surface cyclone develops over the central Plains. Isallobaric flow from the cyclone, along with downslope flow, will support Elevated-equivalent surface conditions along portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon. Despite the presence of such dry and breezy conditions, fuel receptiveness is expected to be quite marginal given recent wetting rainfall, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Increasing mid-level westerly flow across the Intermountain West will promote leeward cyclone development across the central High Plains through D2/Tuesday. As a result, enhanced downslope winds are expected from the west-northwest of 15-25 mph within a dry air mass across portions of southeastern Wyoming, northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska. Recent guidance from land management agencies indicate some fuels are still in place for fire spread so elevated highlights were introduced. Similarly dry southwest flow of 15-25 mph across portions of west Texas are expected but fuels dryness remains subdued owing to recent widespread, wetting rains. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will transition toward more zonal flow tomorrow (Tuesday) as surface high pressure overspreads the eastern U.S. and a surface cyclone develops over the central Plains. Isallobaric flow from the cyclone, along with downslope flow, will support Elevated-equivalent surface conditions along portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon. Despite the presence of such dry and breezy conditions, fuel receptiveness is expected to be quite marginal given recent wetting rainfall, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Increasing mid-level westerly flow across the Intermountain West will promote leeward cyclone development across the central High Plains through D2/Tuesday. As a result, enhanced downslope winds are expected from the west-northwest of 15-25 mph within a dry air mass across portions of southeastern Wyoming, northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska. Recent guidance from land management agencies indicate some fuels are still in place for fire spread so elevated highlights were introduced. Similarly dry southwest flow of 15-25 mph across portions of west Texas are expected but fuels dryness remains subdued owing to recent widespread, wetting rains. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will transition toward more zonal flow tomorrow (Tuesday) as surface high pressure overspreads the eastern U.S. and a surface cyclone develops over the central Plains. Isallobaric flow from the cyclone, along with downslope flow, will support Elevated-equivalent surface conditions along portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon. Despite the presence of such dry and breezy conditions, fuel receptiveness is expected to be quite marginal given recent wetting rainfall, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Increasing mid-level westerly flow across the Intermountain West will promote leeward cyclone development across the central High Plains through D2/Tuesday. As a result, enhanced downslope winds are expected from the west-northwest of 15-25 mph within a dry air mass across portions of southeastern Wyoming, northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska. Recent guidance from land management agencies indicate some fuels are still in place for fire spread so elevated highlights were introduced. Similarly dry southwest flow of 15-25 mph across portions of west Texas are expected but fuels dryness remains subdued owing to recent widespread, wetting rains. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will transition toward more zonal flow tomorrow (Tuesday) as surface high pressure overspreads the eastern U.S. and a surface cyclone develops over the central Plains. Isallobaric flow from the cyclone, along with downslope flow, will support Elevated-equivalent surface conditions along portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon. Despite the presence of such dry and breezy conditions, fuel receptiveness is expected to be quite marginal given recent wetting rainfall, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Increasing mid-level westerly flow across the Intermountain West will promote leeward cyclone development across the central High Plains through D2/Tuesday. As a result, enhanced downslope winds are expected from the west-northwest of 15-25 mph within a dry air mass across portions of southeastern Wyoming, northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska. Recent guidance from land management agencies indicate some fuels are still in place for fire spread so elevated highlights were introduced. Similarly dry southwest flow of 15-25 mph across portions of west Texas are expected but fuels dryness remains subdued owing to recent widespread, wetting rains. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will transition toward more zonal flow tomorrow (Tuesday) as surface high pressure overspreads the eastern U.S. and a surface cyclone develops over the central Plains. Isallobaric flow from the cyclone, along with downslope flow, will support Elevated-equivalent surface conditions along portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon. Despite the presence of such dry and breezy conditions, fuel receptiveness is expected to be quite marginal given recent wetting rainfall, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Increasing mid-level westerly flow across the Intermountain West will promote leeward cyclone development across the central High Plains through D2/Tuesday. As a result, enhanced downslope winds are expected from the west-northwest of 15-25 mph within a dry air mass across portions of southeastern Wyoming, northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska. Recent guidance from land management agencies indicate some fuels are still in place for fire spread so elevated highlights were introduced. Similarly dry southwest flow of 15-25 mph across portions of west Texas are expected but fuels dryness remains subdued owing to recent widespread, wetting rains. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will transition toward more zonal flow tomorrow (Tuesday) as surface high pressure overspreads the eastern U.S. and a surface cyclone develops over the central Plains. Isallobaric flow from the cyclone, along with downslope flow, will support Elevated-equivalent surface conditions along portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon. Despite the presence of such dry and breezy conditions, fuel receptiveness is expected to be quite marginal given recent wetting rainfall, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Increasing mid-level westerly flow across the Intermountain West will promote leeward cyclone development across the central High Plains through D2/Tuesday. As a result, enhanced downslope winds are expected from the west-northwest of 15-25 mph within a dry air mass across portions of southeastern Wyoming, northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska. Recent guidance from land management agencies indicate some fuels are still in place for fire spread so elevated highlights were introduced. Similarly dry southwest flow of 15-25 mph across portions of west Texas are expected but fuels dryness remains subdued owing to recent widespread, wetting rains. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will transition toward more zonal flow tomorrow (Tuesday) as surface high pressure overspreads the eastern U.S. and a surface cyclone develops over the central Plains. Isallobaric flow from the cyclone, along with downslope flow, will support Elevated-equivalent surface conditions along portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon. Despite the presence of such dry and breezy conditions, fuel receptiveness is expected to be quite marginal given recent wetting rainfall, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Increasing mid-level westerly flow across the Intermountain West will promote leeward cyclone development across the central High Plains through D2/Tuesday. As a result, enhanced downslope winds are expected from the west-northwest of 15-25 mph within a dry air mass across portions of southeastern Wyoming, northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska. Recent guidance from land management agencies indicate some fuels are still in place for fire spread so elevated highlights were introduced. Similarly dry southwest flow of 15-25 mph across portions of west Texas are expected but fuels dryness remains subdued owing to recent widespread, wetting rains. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will transition toward more zonal flow tomorrow (Tuesday) as surface high pressure overspreads the eastern U.S. and a surface cyclone develops over the central Plains. Isallobaric flow from the cyclone, along with downslope flow, will support Elevated-equivalent surface conditions along portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon. Despite the presence of such dry and breezy conditions, fuel receptiveness is expected to be quite marginal given recent wetting rainfall, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Increasing mid-level westerly flow across the Intermountain West will promote leeward cyclone development across the central High Plains through D2/Tuesday. As a result, enhanced downslope winds are expected from the west-northwest of 15-25 mph within a dry air mass across portions of southeastern Wyoming, northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska. Recent guidance from land management agencies indicate some fuels are still in place for fire spread so elevated highlights were introduced. Similarly dry southwest flow of 15-25 mph across portions of west Texas are expected but fuels dryness remains subdued owing to recent widespread, wetting rains. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will transition toward more zonal flow tomorrow (Tuesday) as surface high pressure overspreads the eastern U.S. and a surface cyclone develops over the central Plains. Isallobaric flow from the cyclone, along with downslope flow, will support Elevated-equivalent surface conditions along portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon. Despite the presence of such dry and breezy conditions, fuel receptiveness is expected to be quite marginal given recent wetting rainfall, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Increasing mid-level westerly flow across the Intermountain West will promote leeward cyclone development across the central High Plains through D2/Tuesday. As a result, enhanced downslope winds are expected from the west-northwest of 15-25 mph within a dry air mass across portions of southeastern Wyoming, northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska. Recent guidance from land management agencies indicate some fuels are still in place for fire spread so elevated highlights were introduced. Similarly dry southwest flow of 15-25 mph across portions of west Texas are expected but fuels dryness remains subdued owing to recent widespread, wetting rains. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will transition toward more zonal flow tomorrow (Tuesday) as surface high pressure overspreads the eastern U.S. and a surface cyclone develops over the central Plains. Isallobaric flow from the cyclone, along with downslope flow, will support Elevated-equivalent surface conditions along portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon. Despite the presence of such dry and breezy conditions, fuel receptiveness is expected to be quite marginal given recent wetting rainfall, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Increasing mid-level westerly flow across the Intermountain West will promote leeward cyclone development across the central High Plains through D2/Tuesday. As a result, enhanced downslope winds are expected from the west-northwest of 15-25 mph within a dry air mass across portions of southeastern Wyoming, northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska. Recent guidance from land management agencies indicate some fuels are still in place for fire spread so elevated highlights were introduced. Similarly dry southwest flow of 15-25 mph across portions of west Texas are expected but fuels dryness remains subdued owing to recent widespread, wetting rains. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will transition toward more zonal flow tomorrow (Tuesday) as surface high pressure overspreads the eastern U.S. and a surface cyclone develops over the central Plains. Isallobaric flow from the cyclone, along with downslope flow, will support Elevated-equivalent surface conditions along portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon. Despite the presence of such dry and breezy conditions, fuel receptiveness is expected to be quite marginal given recent wetting rainfall, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0436 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 133... FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0436 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Florida...southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina Concerning...Tornado Watch 133... Valid 071839Z - 072015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 133 continues. SUMMARY...A couple of tornadoes and occasional wind damage will be possible through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...A pre-frontal band of convection continues to shift eastward this afternoon on weak convective outflow, as the storms spread into an environment where surface temperatures have warmed into the low-mid 80s with 64-70 F dewpoints. Wind profiles have become more unidirectional/southwesterly with time, and forcing for ascent is relatively modest well downstream from the positive-tilt midlevel trough over the lower MS Valley. The overall severe threat appears to be transitioning more to occasional wind damage with short bowing segments, though a couple of tornadoes will still be possible. ..Thompson.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 29748334 29788378 29998394 30668319 31378271 32068195 33198077 32798045 30668216 29748334 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of northern Florida and southeastern Georgia to the eastern Carolinas. ...North FL to eastern NC the remainder of the afternoon... The earlier supercell structures have largely weakened across north FL/southeast GA, though newer bowing segments have formed and are moving across eastern NC with recent severe gusts of 60-64 mph. Forcing for ascent is modest well downstream of a positive-tilt midlevel trough over the lower MS Valley, and the ongoing convection is ahead of the surface cold front. Sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) and steep low-level lapse rates will help maintain the ongoing storms for the remainder of the afternoon from north FL to eastern NC. Damaging gusts (60-70 mph) will be the main threat with bowing segments with more north-south oriented segments in the primarily unidirectional wind profiles, though a couple of tornadoes remain possible before the severe threat diminishes this evening. ..Thompson.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to Carolinas... The region will be influenced by an upstream positive-tilt trough with strong deep-layer flow extending into the warm sector across the Southeast, where a moderately moist airmass resides beneath relatively poor lapse rates aloft. Preceding a northeastward-transitioning sub-synoptic low, a northeast/southwest-oriented broken line/cluster of storms exists across east-central Georgia to south-central/southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle as of midday. Multiple radar TDSs have recently (mid/late morning) been observed in southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle within Tornado Watch 133. A moist air mass exists ahead of these storms with near 70F dewpoints across northern Florida into Georgia, and 60s F dewpoints into the Carolinas coincident with ample heating/insolation especially for coastal areas. Some additional strengthening of already strong (45+ kt) southwesterly winds in the 1-3km AGL layer, oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective line, will continue to support embedded supercells and bows capable of tornadoes and damaging winds through the afternoon, with the overall potential expected to diminish by around sunset. Deeper convection is also expected to expand north/northeastward along the front as it moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear convective mode is expected with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggests some tornado potential will also exist. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of northern Florida and southeastern Georgia to the eastern Carolinas. ...North FL to eastern NC the remainder of the afternoon... The earlier supercell structures have largely weakened across north FL/southeast GA, though newer bowing segments have formed and are moving across eastern NC with recent severe gusts of 60-64 mph. Forcing for ascent is modest well downstream of a positive-tilt midlevel trough over the lower MS Valley, and the ongoing convection is ahead of the surface cold front. Sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) and steep low-level lapse rates will help maintain the ongoing storms for the remainder of the afternoon from north FL to eastern NC. Damaging gusts (60-70 mph) will be the main threat with bowing segments with more north-south oriented segments in the primarily unidirectional wind profiles, though a couple of tornadoes remain possible before the severe threat diminishes this evening. ..Thompson.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to Carolinas... The region will be influenced by an upstream positive-tilt trough with strong deep-layer flow extending into the warm sector across the Southeast, where a moderately moist airmass resides beneath relatively poor lapse rates aloft. Preceding a northeastward-transitioning sub-synoptic low, a northeast/southwest-oriented broken line/cluster of storms exists across east-central Georgia to south-central/southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle as of midday. Multiple radar TDSs have recently (mid/late morning) been observed in southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle within Tornado Watch 133. A moist air mass exists ahead of these storms with near 70F dewpoints across northern Florida into Georgia, and 60s F dewpoints into the Carolinas coincident with ample heating/insolation especially for coastal areas. Some additional strengthening of already strong (45+ kt) southwesterly winds in the 1-3km AGL layer, oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective line, will continue to support embedded supercells and bows capable of tornadoes and damaging winds through the afternoon, with the overall potential expected to diminish by around sunset. Deeper convection is also expected to expand north/northeastward along the front as it moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear convective mode is expected with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggests some tornado potential will also exist. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of northern Florida and southeastern Georgia to the eastern Carolinas. ...North FL to eastern NC the remainder of the afternoon... The earlier supercell structures have largely weakened across north FL/southeast GA, though newer bowing segments have formed and are moving across eastern NC with recent severe gusts of 60-64 mph. Forcing for ascent is modest well downstream of a positive-tilt midlevel trough over the lower MS Valley, and the ongoing convection is ahead of the surface cold front. Sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) and steep low-level lapse rates will help maintain the ongoing storms for the remainder of the afternoon from north FL to eastern NC. Damaging gusts (60-70 mph) will be the main threat with bowing segments with more north-south oriented segments in the primarily unidirectional wind profiles, though a couple of tornadoes remain possible before the severe threat diminishes this evening. ..Thompson.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to Carolinas... The region will be influenced by an upstream positive-tilt trough with strong deep-layer flow extending into the warm sector across the Southeast, where a moderately moist airmass resides beneath relatively poor lapse rates aloft. Preceding a northeastward-transitioning sub-synoptic low, a northeast/southwest-oriented broken line/cluster of storms exists across east-central Georgia to south-central/southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle as of midday. Multiple radar TDSs have recently (mid/late morning) been observed in southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle within Tornado Watch 133. A moist air mass exists ahead of these storms with near 70F dewpoints across northern Florida into Georgia, and 60s F dewpoints into the Carolinas coincident with ample heating/insolation especially for coastal areas. Some additional strengthening of already strong (45+ kt) southwesterly winds in the 1-3km AGL layer, oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective line, will continue to support embedded supercells and bows capable of tornadoes and damaging winds through the afternoon, with the overall potential expected to diminish by around sunset. Deeper convection is also expected to expand north/northeastward along the front as it moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear convective mode is expected with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggests some tornado potential will also exist. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of northern Florida and southeastern Georgia to the eastern Carolinas. ...North FL to eastern NC the remainder of the afternoon... The earlier supercell structures have largely weakened across north FL/southeast GA, though newer bowing segments have formed and are moving across eastern NC with recent severe gusts of 60-64 mph. Forcing for ascent is modest well downstream of a positive-tilt midlevel trough over the lower MS Valley, and the ongoing convection is ahead of the surface cold front. Sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) and steep low-level lapse rates will help maintain the ongoing storms for the remainder of the afternoon from north FL to eastern NC. Damaging gusts (60-70 mph) will be the main threat with bowing segments with more north-south oriented segments in the primarily unidirectional wind profiles, though a couple of tornadoes remain possible before the severe threat diminishes this evening. ..Thompson.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to Carolinas... The region will be influenced by an upstream positive-tilt trough with strong deep-layer flow extending into the warm sector across the Southeast, where a moderately moist airmass resides beneath relatively poor lapse rates aloft. Preceding a northeastward-transitioning sub-synoptic low, a northeast/southwest-oriented broken line/cluster of storms exists across east-central Georgia to south-central/southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle as of midday. Multiple radar TDSs have recently (mid/late morning) been observed in southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle within Tornado Watch 133. A moist air mass exists ahead of these storms with near 70F dewpoints across northern Florida into Georgia, and 60s F dewpoints into the Carolinas coincident with ample heating/insolation especially for coastal areas. Some additional strengthening of already strong (45+ kt) southwesterly winds in the 1-3km AGL layer, oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective line, will continue to support embedded supercells and bows capable of tornadoes and damaging winds through the afternoon, with the overall potential expected to diminish by around sunset. Deeper convection is also expected to expand north/northeastward along the front as it moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear convective mode is expected with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggests some tornado potential will also exist. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of northern Florida and southeastern Georgia to the eastern Carolinas. ...North FL to eastern NC the remainder of the afternoon... The earlier supercell structures have largely weakened across north FL/southeast GA, though newer bowing segments have formed and are moving across eastern NC with recent severe gusts of 60-64 mph. Forcing for ascent is modest well downstream of a positive-tilt midlevel trough over the lower MS Valley, and the ongoing convection is ahead of the surface cold front. Sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) and steep low-level lapse rates will help maintain the ongoing storms for the remainder of the afternoon from north FL to eastern NC. Damaging gusts (60-70 mph) will be the main threat with bowing segments with more north-south oriented segments in the primarily unidirectional wind profiles, though a couple of tornadoes remain possible before the severe threat diminishes this evening. ..Thompson.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to Carolinas... The region will be influenced by an upstream positive-tilt trough with strong deep-layer flow extending into the warm sector across the Southeast, where a moderately moist airmass resides beneath relatively poor lapse rates aloft. Preceding a northeastward-transitioning sub-synoptic low, a northeast/southwest-oriented broken line/cluster of storms exists across east-central Georgia to south-central/southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle as of midday. Multiple radar TDSs have recently (mid/late morning) been observed in southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle within Tornado Watch 133. A moist air mass exists ahead of these storms with near 70F dewpoints across northern Florida into Georgia, and 60s F dewpoints into the Carolinas coincident with ample heating/insolation especially for coastal areas. Some additional strengthening of already strong (45+ kt) southwesterly winds in the 1-3km AGL layer, oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective line, will continue to support embedded supercells and bows capable of tornadoes and damaging winds through the afternoon, with the overall potential expected to diminish by around sunset. Deeper convection is also expected to expand north/northeastward along the front as it moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear convective mode is expected with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggests some tornado potential will also exist. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of northern Florida and southeastern Georgia to the eastern Carolinas. ...North FL to eastern NC the remainder of the afternoon... The earlier supercell structures have largely weakened across north FL/southeast GA, though newer bowing segments have formed and are moving across eastern NC with recent severe gusts of 60-64 mph. Forcing for ascent is modest well downstream of a positive-tilt midlevel trough over the lower MS Valley, and the ongoing convection is ahead of the surface cold front. Sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) and steep low-level lapse rates will help maintain the ongoing storms for the remainder of the afternoon from north FL to eastern NC. Damaging gusts (60-70 mph) will be the main threat with bowing segments with more north-south oriented segments in the primarily unidirectional wind profiles, though a couple of tornadoes remain possible before the severe threat diminishes this evening. ..Thompson.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to Carolinas... The region will be influenced by an upstream positive-tilt trough with strong deep-layer flow extending into the warm sector across the Southeast, where a moderately moist airmass resides beneath relatively poor lapse rates aloft. Preceding a northeastward-transitioning sub-synoptic low, a northeast/southwest-oriented broken line/cluster of storms exists across east-central Georgia to south-central/southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle as of midday. Multiple radar TDSs have recently (mid/late morning) been observed in southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle within Tornado Watch 133. A moist air mass exists ahead of these storms with near 70F dewpoints across northern Florida into Georgia, and 60s F dewpoints into the Carolinas coincident with ample heating/insolation especially for coastal areas. Some additional strengthening of already strong (45+ kt) southwesterly winds in the 1-3km AGL layer, oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective line, will continue to support embedded supercells and bows capable of tornadoes and damaging winds through the afternoon, with the overall potential expected to diminish by around sunset. Deeper convection is also expected to expand north/northeastward along the front as it moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear convective mode is expected with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggests some tornado potential will also exist. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of northern Florida and southeastern Georgia to the eastern Carolinas. ...North FL to eastern NC the remainder of the afternoon... The earlier supercell structures have largely weakened across north FL/southeast GA, though newer bowing segments have formed and are moving across eastern NC with recent severe gusts of 60-64 mph. Forcing for ascent is modest well downstream of a positive-tilt midlevel trough over the lower MS Valley, and the ongoing convection is ahead of the surface cold front. Sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) and steep low-level lapse rates will help maintain the ongoing storms for the remainder of the afternoon from north FL to eastern NC. Damaging gusts (60-70 mph) will be the main threat with bowing segments with more north-south oriented segments in the primarily unidirectional wind profiles, though a couple of tornadoes remain possible before the severe threat diminishes this evening. ..Thompson.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to Carolinas... The region will be influenced by an upstream positive-tilt trough with strong deep-layer flow extending into the warm sector across the Southeast, where a moderately moist airmass resides beneath relatively poor lapse rates aloft. Preceding a northeastward-transitioning sub-synoptic low, a northeast/southwest-oriented broken line/cluster of storms exists across east-central Georgia to south-central/southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle as of midday. Multiple radar TDSs have recently (mid/late morning) been observed in southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle within Tornado Watch 133. A moist air mass exists ahead of these storms with near 70F dewpoints across northern Florida into Georgia, and 60s F dewpoints into the Carolinas coincident with ample heating/insolation especially for coastal areas. Some additional strengthening of already strong (45+ kt) southwesterly winds in the 1-3km AGL layer, oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective line, will continue to support embedded supercells and bows capable of tornadoes and damaging winds through the afternoon, with the overall potential expected to diminish by around sunset. Deeper convection is also expected to expand north/northeastward along the front as it moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear convective mode is expected with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggests some tornado potential will also exist. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of northern Florida and southeastern Georgia to the eastern Carolinas. ...North FL to eastern NC the remainder of the afternoon... The earlier supercell structures have largely weakened across north FL/southeast GA, though newer bowing segments have formed and are moving across eastern NC with recent severe gusts of 60-64 mph. Forcing for ascent is modest well downstream of a positive-tilt midlevel trough over the lower MS Valley, and the ongoing convection is ahead of the surface cold front. Sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) and steep low-level lapse rates will help maintain the ongoing storms for the remainder of the afternoon from north FL to eastern NC. Damaging gusts (60-70 mph) will be the main threat with bowing segments with more north-south oriented segments in the primarily unidirectional wind profiles, though a couple of tornadoes remain possible before the severe threat diminishes this evening. ..Thompson.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to Carolinas... The region will be influenced by an upstream positive-tilt trough with strong deep-layer flow extending into the warm sector across the Southeast, where a moderately moist airmass resides beneath relatively poor lapse rates aloft. Preceding a northeastward-transitioning sub-synoptic low, a northeast/southwest-oriented broken line/cluster of storms exists across east-central Georgia to south-central/southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle as of midday. Multiple radar TDSs have recently (mid/late morning) been observed in southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle within Tornado Watch 133. A moist air mass exists ahead of these storms with near 70F dewpoints across northern Florida into Georgia, and 60s F dewpoints into the Carolinas coincident with ample heating/insolation especially for coastal areas. Some additional strengthening of already strong (45+ kt) southwesterly winds in the 1-3km AGL layer, oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective line, will continue to support embedded supercells and bows capable of tornadoes and damaging winds through the afternoon, with the overall potential expected to diminish by around sunset. Deeper convection is also expected to expand north/northeastward along the front as it moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear convective mode is expected with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggests some tornado potential will also exist. Read more