Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally damaging gusts will be possible across portions of the Tennessee Valley on Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted large-scale trough and accompanying midlevel speed maximum will move southeastward from the Middle/Upper MS Valley to the southern Appalachians through the period. At the same time, a weak surface low will drift east-southeastward from the Midwest into the central Appalachians, while a related cold front overspreads the TN Valley during the afternoon/evening. ...Tennessee Valley... Aided by strengthening DCVA in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along the cold front as it moves southeastward across the TN Valley during the afternoon and evening hours. Beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates, diurnal heating of a partially modified Gulf air mass will yield upwards of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE along the front. Despite the somewhat marginal buoyancy, 50-60 kt of effective shear (characterized by a long/straight hodograph) will support a few organized/rotating storms -- both ahead of and behind the southward-moving front. Weak/veered low-level flow will generally limit the strength of forcing along the front, which should favor a semi-discrete mode and the potential for large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Weinman.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally damaging gusts will be possible across portions of the Tennessee Valley on Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted large-scale trough and accompanying midlevel speed maximum will move southeastward from the Middle/Upper MS Valley to the southern Appalachians through the period. At the same time, a weak surface low will drift east-southeastward from the Midwest into the central Appalachians, while a related cold front overspreads the TN Valley during the afternoon/evening. ...Tennessee Valley... Aided by strengthening DCVA in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along the cold front as it moves southeastward across the TN Valley during the afternoon and evening hours. Beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates, diurnal heating of a partially modified Gulf air mass will yield upwards of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE along the front. Despite the somewhat marginal buoyancy, 50-60 kt of effective shear (characterized by a long/straight hodograph) will support a few organized/rotating storms -- both ahead of and behind the southward-moving front. Weak/veered low-level flow will generally limit the strength of forcing along the front, which should favor a semi-discrete mode and the potential for large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Weinman.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally damaging gusts will be possible across portions of the Tennessee Valley on Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted large-scale trough and accompanying midlevel speed maximum will move southeastward from the Middle/Upper MS Valley to the southern Appalachians through the period. At the same time, a weak surface low will drift east-southeastward from the Midwest into the central Appalachians, while a related cold front overspreads the TN Valley during the afternoon/evening. ...Tennessee Valley... Aided by strengthening DCVA in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along the cold front as it moves southeastward across the TN Valley during the afternoon and evening hours. Beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates, diurnal heating of a partially modified Gulf air mass will yield upwards of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE along the front. Despite the somewhat marginal buoyancy, 50-60 kt of effective shear (characterized by a long/straight hodograph) will support a few organized/rotating storms -- both ahead of and behind the southward-moving front. Weak/veered low-level flow will generally limit the strength of forcing along the front, which should favor a semi-discrete mode and the potential for large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Weinman.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally damaging gusts will be possible across portions of the Tennessee Valley on Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted large-scale trough and accompanying midlevel speed maximum will move southeastward from the Middle/Upper MS Valley to the southern Appalachians through the period. At the same time, a weak surface low will drift east-southeastward from the Midwest into the central Appalachians, while a related cold front overspreads the TN Valley during the afternoon/evening. ...Tennessee Valley... Aided by strengthening DCVA in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along the cold front as it moves southeastward across the TN Valley during the afternoon and evening hours. Beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates, diurnal heating of a partially modified Gulf air mass will yield upwards of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE along the front. Despite the somewhat marginal buoyancy, 50-60 kt of effective shear (characterized by a long/straight hodograph) will support a few organized/rotating storms -- both ahead of and behind the southward-moving front. Weak/veered low-level flow will generally limit the strength of forcing along the front, which should favor a semi-discrete mode and the potential for large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Weinman.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally damaging gusts will be possible across portions of the Tennessee Valley on Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted large-scale trough and accompanying midlevel speed maximum will move southeastward from the Middle/Upper MS Valley to the southern Appalachians through the period. At the same time, a weak surface low will drift east-southeastward from the Midwest into the central Appalachians, while a related cold front overspreads the TN Valley during the afternoon/evening. ...Tennessee Valley... Aided by strengthening DCVA in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along the cold front as it moves southeastward across the TN Valley during the afternoon and evening hours. Beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates, diurnal heating of a partially modified Gulf air mass will yield upwards of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE along the front. Despite the somewhat marginal buoyancy, 50-60 kt of effective shear (characterized by a long/straight hodograph) will support a few organized/rotating storms -- both ahead of and behind the southward-moving front. Weak/veered low-level flow will generally limit the strength of forcing along the front, which should favor a semi-discrete mode and the potential for large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Weinman.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally damaging gusts will be possible across portions of the Tennessee Valley on Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted large-scale trough and accompanying midlevel speed maximum will move southeastward from the Middle/Upper MS Valley to the southern Appalachians through the period. At the same time, a weak surface low will drift east-southeastward from the Midwest into the central Appalachians, while a related cold front overspreads the TN Valley during the afternoon/evening. ...Tennessee Valley... Aided by strengthening DCVA in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along the cold front as it moves southeastward across the TN Valley during the afternoon and evening hours. Beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates, diurnal heating of a partially modified Gulf air mass will yield upwards of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE along the front. Despite the somewhat marginal buoyancy, 50-60 kt of effective shear (characterized by a long/straight hodograph) will support a few organized/rotating storms -- both ahead of and behind the southward-moving front. Weak/veered low-level flow will generally limit the strength of forcing along the front, which should favor a semi-discrete mode and the potential for large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Weinman.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the the Middle Mississippi Valley and northern High Plains, though severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A midlevel trough will amplify as it advances southeastward from the northern Plains into the Midwest, while a related surface low and southwestward-extending cold front overspread the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Despite limited boundary-layer moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates will yield sufficient instability (albeit weak) for isolated thunderstorms along the front during the evening/overnight hours. While locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out, the weak instability should limit storm intensity. Farther west, ascent in the left-exit region of a southeastward-moving upper-level jet, combined with steep deep-layer lapse rates/marginal instability, will support isolated thunderstorms across the northern and central Plains. ..Weinman.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the the Middle Mississippi Valley and northern High Plains, though severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A midlevel trough will amplify as it advances southeastward from the northern Plains into the Midwest, while a related surface low and southwestward-extending cold front overspread the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Despite limited boundary-layer moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates will yield sufficient instability (albeit weak) for isolated thunderstorms along the front during the evening/overnight hours. While locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out, the weak instability should limit storm intensity. Farther west, ascent in the left-exit region of a southeastward-moving upper-level jet, combined with steep deep-layer lapse rates/marginal instability, will support isolated thunderstorms across the northern and central Plains. ..Weinman.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the the Middle Mississippi Valley and northern High Plains, though severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A midlevel trough will amplify as it advances southeastward from the northern Plains into the Midwest, while a related surface low and southwestward-extending cold front overspread the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Despite limited boundary-layer moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates will yield sufficient instability (albeit weak) for isolated thunderstorms along the front during the evening/overnight hours. While locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out, the weak instability should limit storm intensity. Farther west, ascent in the left-exit region of a southeastward-moving upper-level jet, combined with steep deep-layer lapse rates/marginal instability, will support isolated thunderstorms across the northern and central Plains. ..Weinman.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the the Middle Mississippi Valley and northern High Plains, though severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A midlevel trough will amplify as it advances southeastward from the northern Plains into the Midwest, while a related surface low and southwestward-extending cold front overspread the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Despite limited boundary-layer moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates will yield sufficient instability (albeit weak) for isolated thunderstorms along the front during the evening/overnight hours. While locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out, the weak instability should limit storm intensity. Farther west, ascent in the left-exit region of a southeastward-moving upper-level jet, combined with steep deep-layer lapse rates/marginal instability, will support isolated thunderstorms across the northern and central Plains. ..Weinman.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the the Middle Mississippi Valley and northern High Plains, though severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A midlevel trough will amplify as it advances southeastward from the northern Plains into the Midwest, while a related surface low and southwestward-extending cold front overspread the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Despite limited boundary-layer moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates will yield sufficient instability (albeit weak) for isolated thunderstorms along the front during the evening/overnight hours. While locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out, the weak instability should limit storm intensity. Farther west, ascent in the left-exit region of a southeastward-moving upper-level jet, combined with steep deep-layer lapse rates/marginal instability, will support isolated thunderstorms across the northern and central Plains. ..Weinman.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the the Middle Mississippi Valley and northern High Plains, though severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A midlevel trough will amplify as it advances southeastward from the northern Plains into the Midwest, while a related surface low and southwestward-extending cold front overspread the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Despite limited boundary-layer moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates will yield sufficient instability (albeit weak) for isolated thunderstorms along the front during the evening/overnight hours. While locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out, the weak instability should limit storm intensity. Farther west, ascent in the left-exit region of a southeastward-moving upper-level jet, combined with steep deep-layer lapse rates/marginal instability, will support isolated thunderstorms across the northern and central Plains. ..Weinman.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys tonight into Wednesday morning, and from southeast Montana to the Black Hills. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt trough in the western Gulf will slide eastward through the day. This trough will eventually reach the Florida Peninsula late tonight into Wednesday morning. In the West, an upper ridge will build with the strongest flow aloft situated over the Northwest into the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak cold front across South Florida will be a focus for convection. ...South Florida/Keys... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing early this morning in central/South Florida. This activity and associated cloud cover should limit/slow destabilization along the weakly convergent front. Where greater heating can occur, a stronger storm or two would be possible. Given weak low-level lapse rates and wind fields, gusty winds would be the likely hazards from this activity. Mid-level lapse rates will also be poor and large hail does not appear likely. Convection during the afternoon will likely struggle to organize as effective shear will be 25 kts or less. By late afternoon into the evening, stronger flow aloft will reach the Keys/far South Florida. By this time, however, buoyancy will be weakening and storms are not likely to be surface based. ...Southeast Montana into the Black Hills... Despite limited moisture, thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of Montana is possible with embedded shortwave perturbations passing through the region. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and strong shear may promote a few stronger storms capable of small hail and strong outflow winds during the afternoon and early evening. Weak buoyancy will limit storm intensity. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys tonight into Wednesday morning, and from southeast Montana to the Black Hills. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt trough in the western Gulf will slide eastward through the day. This trough will eventually reach the Florida Peninsula late tonight into Wednesday morning. In the West, an upper ridge will build with the strongest flow aloft situated over the Northwest into the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak cold front across South Florida will be a focus for convection. ...South Florida/Keys... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing early this morning in central/South Florida. This activity and associated cloud cover should limit/slow destabilization along the weakly convergent front. Where greater heating can occur, a stronger storm or two would be possible. Given weak low-level lapse rates and wind fields, gusty winds would be the likely hazards from this activity. Mid-level lapse rates will also be poor and large hail does not appear likely. Convection during the afternoon will likely struggle to organize as effective shear will be 25 kts or less. By late afternoon into the evening, stronger flow aloft will reach the Keys/far South Florida. By this time, however, buoyancy will be weakening and storms are not likely to be surface based. ...Southeast Montana into the Black Hills... Despite limited moisture, thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of Montana is possible with embedded shortwave perturbations passing through the region. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and strong shear may promote a few stronger storms capable of small hail and strong outflow winds during the afternoon and early evening. Weak buoyancy will limit storm intensity. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys tonight into Wednesday morning, and from southeast Montana to the Black Hills. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt trough in the western Gulf will slide eastward through the day. This trough will eventually reach the Florida Peninsula late tonight into Wednesday morning. In the West, an upper ridge will build with the strongest flow aloft situated over the Northwest into the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak cold front across South Florida will be a focus for convection. ...South Florida/Keys... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing early this morning in central/South Florida. This activity and associated cloud cover should limit/slow destabilization along the weakly convergent front. Where greater heating can occur, a stronger storm or two would be possible. Given weak low-level lapse rates and wind fields, gusty winds would be the likely hazards from this activity. Mid-level lapse rates will also be poor and large hail does not appear likely. Convection during the afternoon will likely struggle to organize as effective shear will be 25 kts or less. By late afternoon into the evening, stronger flow aloft will reach the Keys/far South Florida. By this time, however, buoyancy will be weakening and storms are not likely to be surface based. ...Southeast Montana into the Black Hills... Despite limited moisture, thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of Montana is possible with embedded shortwave perturbations passing through the region. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and strong shear may promote a few stronger storms capable of small hail and strong outflow winds during the afternoon and early evening. Weak buoyancy will limit storm intensity. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys tonight into Wednesday morning, and from southeast Montana to the Black Hills. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt trough in the western Gulf will slide eastward through the day. This trough will eventually reach the Florida Peninsula late tonight into Wednesday morning. In the West, an upper ridge will build with the strongest flow aloft situated over the Northwest into the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak cold front across South Florida will be a focus for convection. ...South Florida/Keys... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing early this morning in central/South Florida. This activity and associated cloud cover should limit/slow destabilization along the weakly convergent front. Where greater heating can occur, a stronger storm or two would be possible. Given weak low-level lapse rates and wind fields, gusty winds would be the likely hazards from this activity. Mid-level lapse rates will also be poor and large hail does not appear likely. Convection during the afternoon will likely struggle to organize as effective shear will be 25 kts or less. By late afternoon into the evening, stronger flow aloft will reach the Keys/far South Florida. By this time, however, buoyancy will be weakening and storms are not likely to be surface based. ...Southeast Montana into the Black Hills... Despite limited moisture, thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of Montana is possible with embedded shortwave perturbations passing through the region. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and strong shear may promote a few stronger storms capable of small hail and strong outflow winds during the afternoon and early evening. Weak buoyancy will limit storm intensity. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys tonight into Wednesday morning, and from southeast Montana to the Black Hills. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt trough in the western Gulf will slide eastward through the day. This trough will eventually reach the Florida Peninsula late tonight into Wednesday morning. In the West, an upper ridge will build with the strongest flow aloft situated over the Northwest into the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak cold front across South Florida will be a focus for convection. ...South Florida/Keys... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing early this morning in central/South Florida. This activity and associated cloud cover should limit/slow destabilization along the weakly convergent front. Where greater heating can occur, a stronger storm or two would be possible. Given weak low-level lapse rates and wind fields, gusty winds would be the likely hazards from this activity. Mid-level lapse rates will also be poor and large hail does not appear likely. Convection during the afternoon will likely struggle to organize as effective shear will be 25 kts or less. By late afternoon into the evening, stronger flow aloft will reach the Keys/far South Florida. By this time, however, buoyancy will be weakening and storms are not likely to be surface based. ...Southeast Montana into the Black Hills... Despite limited moisture, thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of Montana is possible with embedded shortwave perturbations passing through the region. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and strong shear may promote a few stronger storms capable of small hail and strong outflow winds during the afternoon and early evening. Weak buoyancy will limit storm intensity. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys tonight into Wednesday morning, and from southeast Montana to the Black Hills. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt trough in the western Gulf will slide eastward through the day. This trough will eventually reach the Florida Peninsula late tonight into Wednesday morning. In the West, an upper ridge will build with the strongest flow aloft situated over the Northwest into the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak cold front across South Florida will be a focus for convection. ...South Florida/Keys... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing early this morning in central/South Florida. This activity and associated cloud cover should limit/slow destabilization along the weakly convergent front. Where greater heating can occur, a stronger storm or two would be possible. Given weak low-level lapse rates and wind fields, gusty winds would be the likely hazards from this activity. Mid-level lapse rates will also be poor and large hail does not appear likely. Convection during the afternoon will likely struggle to organize as effective shear will be 25 kts or less. By late afternoon into the evening, stronger flow aloft will reach the Keys/far South Florida. By this time, however, buoyancy will be weakening and storms are not likely to be surface based. ...Southeast Montana into the Black Hills... Despite limited moisture, thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of Montana is possible with embedded shortwave perturbations passing through the region. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and strong shear may promote a few stronger storms capable of small hail and strong outflow winds during the afternoon and early evening. Weak buoyancy will limit storm intensity. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys tonight into Wednesday morning, and from southeast Montana to the Black Hills. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt trough in the western Gulf will slide eastward through the day. This trough will eventually reach the Florida Peninsula late tonight into Wednesday morning. In the West, an upper ridge will build with the strongest flow aloft situated over the Northwest into the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak cold front across South Florida will be a focus for convection. ...South Florida/Keys... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing early this morning in central/South Florida. This activity and associated cloud cover should limit/slow destabilization along the weakly convergent front. Where greater heating can occur, a stronger storm or two would be possible. Given weak low-level lapse rates and wind fields, gusty winds would be the likely hazards from this activity. Mid-level lapse rates will also be poor and large hail does not appear likely. Convection during the afternoon will likely struggle to organize as effective shear will be 25 kts or less. By late afternoon into the evening, stronger flow aloft will reach the Keys/far South Florida. By this time, however, buoyancy will be weakening and storms are not likely to be surface based. ...Southeast Montana into the Black Hills... Despite limited moisture, thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of Montana is possible with embedded shortwave perturbations passing through the region. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and strong shear may promote a few stronger storms capable of small hail and strong outflow winds during the afternoon and early evening. Weak buoyancy will limit storm intensity. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the central U.S., with an embedded 500 mb speed max poised to overspread the central Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). As surface high pressure builds over the northern Rockies, downslope flow across the central High Plains will promote another day of dry/windy conditions. 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface flow amid 20 percent RH will overspread dry fuels, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Elsewhere across the central and southern High Plains, modestly dry and breezy conditions may develop and overspread fuels that have recently experienced appreciable precipitation accumulations, with no fire weather highlights introduced at this time. ..Squitieri.. 04/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more