Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest, the Upper Midwest, and the northern High Plains, though severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A midlevel trough will amplify as it advances southeastward from the northern Plains into the Midwest on Wednesday, while a surface low will develop over Missouri and moves into the Lower Ohio Valley. A cold front will extend southwestward from this surface low with a warm front to the northeast. Despite limited boundary-layer moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates will yield sufficient instability (albeit weak) for isolated thunderstorms along the warm front during the evening/overnight hours. Some thunderstorms may develop along the cold front where slightly greater instability is forecast. Locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out, but the weak instability should limit storm intensity. Isolated thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest as a mid-level trough amplifies and moves south and a mid-level jet streak overspreads the region. ..Bentley.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest, the Upper Midwest, and the northern High Plains, though severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A midlevel trough will amplify as it advances southeastward from the northern Plains into the Midwest on Wednesday, while a surface low will develop over Missouri and moves into the Lower Ohio Valley. A cold front will extend southwestward from this surface low with a warm front to the northeast. Despite limited boundary-layer moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates will yield sufficient instability (albeit weak) for isolated thunderstorms along the warm front during the evening/overnight hours. Some thunderstorms may develop along the cold front where slightly greater instability is forecast. Locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out, but the weak instability should limit storm intensity. Isolated thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest as a mid-level trough amplifies and moves south and a mid-level jet streak overspreads the region. ..Bentley.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest, the Upper Midwest, and the northern High Plains, though severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A midlevel trough will amplify as it advances southeastward from the northern Plains into the Midwest on Wednesday, while a surface low will develop over Missouri and moves into the Lower Ohio Valley. A cold front will extend southwestward from this surface low with a warm front to the northeast. Despite limited boundary-layer moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates will yield sufficient instability (albeit weak) for isolated thunderstorms along the warm front during the evening/overnight hours. Some thunderstorms may develop along the cold front where slightly greater instability is forecast. Locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out, but the weak instability should limit storm intensity. Isolated thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest as a mid-level trough amplifies and moves south and a mid-level jet streak overspreads the region. ..Bentley.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Gusty downslope winds from the west-northwest along with relative humidity dropping to around 15 percent are likely this afternoon. These Elevated fire weather conditions will couple with receptive fuels to magnify wildfire spread potential across portions of the central High Plains. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will become established across the CONUS, with multiple embedded impulses expected to progress eastward within the zonal flow regime. One such mid-level impulse will overspread the central Rockies this afternoon, supporting surface cyclone development over the Plains states. Downslope flow is likely over the central High Plains, with the latest guidance consensus showing 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 20 percent RH, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights given modestly dry fuels. Occasionally dry and windy conditions are also possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains, though recent appreciable precipitation accumulations have dampened fuels, precluding fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Gusty downslope winds from the west-northwest along with relative humidity dropping to around 15 percent are likely this afternoon. These Elevated fire weather conditions will couple with receptive fuels to magnify wildfire spread potential across portions of the central High Plains. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will become established across the CONUS, with multiple embedded impulses expected to progress eastward within the zonal flow regime. One such mid-level impulse will overspread the central Rockies this afternoon, supporting surface cyclone development over the Plains states. Downslope flow is likely over the central High Plains, with the latest guidance consensus showing 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 20 percent RH, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights given modestly dry fuels. Occasionally dry and windy conditions are also possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains, though recent appreciable precipitation accumulations have dampened fuels, precluding fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Gusty downslope winds from the west-northwest along with relative humidity dropping to around 15 percent are likely this afternoon. These Elevated fire weather conditions will couple with receptive fuels to magnify wildfire spread potential across portions of the central High Plains. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will become established across the CONUS, with multiple embedded impulses expected to progress eastward within the zonal flow regime. One such mid-level impulse will overspread the central Rockies this afternoon, supporting surface cyclone development over the Plains states. Downslope flow is likely over the central High Plains, with the latest guidance consensus showing 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 20 percent RH, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights given modestly dry fuels. Occasionally dry and windy conditions are also possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains, though recent appreciable precipitation accumulations have dampened fuels, precluding fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Gusty downslope winds from the west-northwest along with relative humidity dropping to around 15 percent are likely this afternoon. These Elevated fire weather conditions will couple with receptive fuels to magnify wildfire spread potential across portions of the central High Plains. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will become established across the CONUS, with multiple embedded impulses expected to progress eastward within the zonal flow regime. One such mid-level impulse will overspread the central Rockies this afternoon, supporting surface cyclone development over the Plains states. Downslope flow is likely over the central High Plains, with the latest guidance consensus showing 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 20 percent RH, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights given modestly dry fuels. Occasionally dry and windy conditions are also possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains, though recent appreciable precipitation accumulations have dampened fuels, precluding fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Gusty downslope winds from the west-northwest along with relative humidity dropping to around 15 percent are likely this afternoon. These Elevated fire weather conditions will couple with receptive fuels to magnify wildfire spread potential across portions of the central High Plains. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will become established across the CONUS, with multiple embedded impulses expected to progress eastward within the zonal flow regime. One such mid-level impulse will overspread the central Rockies this afternoon, supporting surface cyclone development over the Plains states. Downslope flow is likely over the central High Plains, with the latest guidance consensus showing 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 20 percent RH, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights given modestly dry fuels. Occasionally dry and windy conditions are also possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains, though recent appreciable precipitation accumulations have dampened fuels, precluding fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Gusty downslope winds from the west-northwest along with relative humidity dropping to around 15 percent are likely this afternoon. These Elevated fire weather conditions will couple with receptive fuels to magnify wildfire spread potential across portions of the central High Plains. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will become established across the CONUS, with multiple embedded impulses expected to progress eastward within the zonal flow regime. One such mid-level impulse will overspread the central Rockies this afternoon, supporting surface cyclone development over the Plains states. Downslope flow is likely over the central High Plains, with the latest guidance consensus showing 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 20 percent RH, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights given modestly dry fuels. Occasionally dry and windy conditions are also possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains, though recent appreciable precipitation accumulations have dampened fuels, precluding fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Gusty downslope winds from the west-northwest along with relative humidity dropping to around 15 percent are likely this afternoon. These Elevated fire weather conditions will couple with receptive fuels to magnify wildfire spread potential across portions of the central High Plains. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will become established across the CONUS, with multiple embedded impulses expected to progress eastward within the zonal flow regime. One such mid-level impulse will overspread the central Rockies this afternoon, supporting surface cyclone development over the Plains states. Downslope flow is likely over the central High Plains, with the latest guidance consensus showing 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 20 percent RH, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights given modestly dry fuels. Occasionally dry and windy conditions are also possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains, though recent appreciable precipitation accumulations have dampened fuels, precluding fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... While organized severe storms are unlikely, isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys through early evening, and perhaps also across southeast Montana to the Black Hills. ...South Florida/Keys... A cold front will continue to progress southeastward and move offshore by evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing this afternoon ahead of it. While a couple of stronger storms could occur this afternoon through early evening, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear should mitigate overall storm strength. A positively tilted shortwave trough will approach the region later tonight. But with the front having progressed offshore, thunderstorm potential (including any severe risk) over land should remain very low. ...North-central High Plains.. A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the southern Canadian Prairies, while moderate mid-level flow expands eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High Plains. Widely scattered high-based convection is possible during the afternoon and evening from southeast Montana/northern Wyoming to the Black Hills as modest large-scale ascent influences areas that have destabilized amid boundary-layer heating. Weak buoyancy should temper overall updraft strength, but a few instances of stronger/gusty thunderstorm winds may occur. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... While organized severe storms are unlikely, isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys through early evening, and perhaps also across southeast Montana to the Black Hills. ...South Florida/Keys... A cold front will continue to progress southeastward and move offshore by evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing this afternoon ahead of it. While a couple of stronger storms could occur this afternoon through early evening, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear should mitigate overall storm strength. A positively tilted shortwave trough will approach the region later tonight. But with the front having progressed offshore, thunderstorm potential (including any severe risk) over land should remain very low. ...North-central High Plains.. A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the southern Canadian Prairies, while moderate mid-level flow expands eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High Plains. Widely scattered high-based convection is possible during the afternoon and evening from southeast Montana/northern Wyoming to the Black Hills as modest large-scale ascent influences areas that have destabilized amid boundary-layer heating. Weak buoyancy should temper overall updraft strength, but a few instances of stronger/gusty thunderstorm winds may occur. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... While organized severe storms are unlikely, isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys through early evening, and perhaps also across southeast Montana to the Black Hills. ...South Florida/Keys... A cold front will continue to progress southeastward and move offshore by evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing this afternoon ahead of it. While a couple of stronger storms could occur this afternoon through early evening, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear should mitigate overall storm strength. A positively tilted shortwave trough will approach the region later tonight. But with the front having progressed offshore, thunderstorm potential (including any severe risk) over land should remain very low. ...North-central High Plains.. A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the southern Canadian Prairies, while moderate mid-level flow expands eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High Plains. Widely scattered high-based convection is possible during the afternoon and evening from southeast Montana/northern Wyoming to the Black Hills as modest large-scale ascent influences areas that have destabilized amid boundary-layer heating. Weak buoyancy should temper overall updraft strength, but a few instances of stronger/gusty thunderstorm winds may occur. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... While organized severe storms are unlikely, isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys through early evening, and perhaps also across southeast Montana to the Black Hills. ...South Florida/Keys... A cold front will continue to progress southeastward and move offshore by evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing this afternoon ahead of it. While a couple of stronger storms could occur this afternoon through early evening, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear should mitigate overall storm strength. A positively tilted shortwave trough will approach the region later tonight. But with the front having progressed offshore, thunderstorm potential (including any severe risk) over land should remain very low. ...North-central High Plains.. A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the southern Canadian Prairies, while moderate mid-level flow expands eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High Plains. Widely scattered high-based convection is possible during the afternoon and evening from southeast Montana/northern Wyoming to the Black Hills as modest large-scale ascent influences areas that have destabilized amid boundary-layer heating. Weak buoyancy should temper overall updraft strength, but a few instances of stronger/gusty thunderstorm winds may occur. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... While organized severe storms are unlikely, isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys through early evening, and perhaps also across southeast Montana to the Black Hills. ...South Florida/Keys... A cold front will continue to progress southeastward and move offshore by evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing this afternoon ahead of it. While a couple of stronger storms could occur this afternoon through early evening, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear should mitigate overall storm strength. A positively tilted shortwave trough will approach the region later tonight. But with the front having progressed offshore, thunderstorm potential (including any severe risk) over land should remain very low. ...North-central High Plains.. A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the southern Canadian Prairies, while moderate mid-level flow expands eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High Plains. Widely scattered high-based convection is possible during the afternoon and evening from southeast Montana/northern Wyoming to the Black Hills as modest large-scale ascent influences areas that have destabilized amid boundary-layer heating. Weak buoyancy should temper overall updraft strength, but a few instances of stronger/gusty thunderstorm winds may occur. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... While organized severe storms are unlikely, isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys through early evening, and perhaps also across southeast Montana to the Black Hills. ...South Florida/Keys... A cold front will continue to progress southeastward and move offshore by evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing this afternoon ahead of it. While a couple of stronger storms could occur this afternoon through early evening, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear should mitigate overall storm strength. A positively tilted shortwave trough will approach the region later tonight. But with the front having progressed offshore, thunderstorm potential (including any severe risk) over land should remain very low. ...North-central High Plains.. A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the southern Canadian Prairies, while moderate mid-level flow expands eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High Plains. Widely scattered high-based convection is possible during the afternoon and evening from southeast Montana/northern Wyoming to the Black Hills as modest large-scale ascent influences areas that have destabilized amid boundary-layer heating. Weak buoyancy should temper overall updraft strength, but a few instances of stronger/gusty thunderstorm winds may occur. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... While organized severe storms are unlikely, isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys through early evening, and perhaps also across southeast Montana to the Black Hills. ...South Florida/Keys... A cold front will continue to progress southeastward and move offshore by evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing this afternoon ahead of it. While a couple of stronger storms could occur this afternoon through early evening, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear should mitigate overall storm strength. A positively tilted shortwave trough will approach the region later tonight. But with the front having progressed offshore, thunderstorm potential (including any severe risk) over land should remain very low. ...North-central High Plains.. A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the southern Canadian Prairies, while moderate mid-level flow expands eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High Plains. Widely scattered high-based convection is possible during the afternoon and evening from southeast Montana/northern Wyoming to the Black Hills as modest large-scale ascent influences areas that have destabilized amid boundary-layer heating. Weak buoyancy should temper overall updraft strength, but a few instances of stronger/gusty thunderstorm winds may occur. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys today into Wednesday morning, and from southeast Montana to the Black Hills. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A slow-moving cold front continues to push southward across central FL. This front is expected to continue southward throughout the day, progressing through South FL and offshore by this evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this boundary, but poor lapse rates and weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength. A positively tilted shortwave trough is expected to track eastward across the Gulf today, reaching the FL Peninsula by early Wednesday morning. A post-frontal airmass will exist across the peninsula whenever this shortwave arrives, which will keep thunderstorm chances over land very low. Farther north and west, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the southern Canadian Prairies, while moderate mid-level flow expands eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High Plains. Some high-based convection is possible during the afternoon and evening from southeast MT/northern WY into the Black Hills as modest large-scale ascent occurs over regions that have destabilized amid boundary-layer heating. Weak buoyancy should temper overall updraft strength, but a few gusty downdrafts are possible. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys today into Wednesday morning, and from southeast Montana to the Black Hills. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A slow-moving cold front continues to push southward across central FL. This front is expected to continue southward throughout the day, progressing through South FL and offshore by this evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this boundary, but poor lapse rates and weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength. A positively tilted shortwave trough is expected to track eastward across the Gulf today, reaching the FL Peninsula by early Wednesday morning. A post-frontal airmass will exist across the peninsula whenever this shortwave arrives, which will keep thunderstorm chances over land very low. Farther north and west, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the southern Canadian Prairies, while moderate mid-level flow expands eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High Plains. Some high-based convection is possible during the afternoon and evening from southeast MT/northern WY into the Black Hills as modest large-scale ascent occurs over regions that have destabilized amid boundary-layer heating. Weak buoyancy should temper overall updraft strength, but a few gusty downdrafts are possible. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys today into Wednesday morning, and from southeast Montana to the Black Hills. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A slow-moving cold front continues to push southward across central FL. This front is expected to continue southward throughout the day, progressing through South FL and offshore by this evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this boundary, but poor lapse rates and weak shear should mitigate overall storm strength. A positively tilted shortwave trough is expected to track eastward across the Gulf today, reaching the FL Peninsula by early Wednesday morning. A post-frontal airmass will exist across the peninsula whenever this shortwave arrives, which will keep thunderstorm chances over land very low. Farther north and west, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the southern Canadian Prairies, while moderate mid-level flow expands eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High Plains. Some high-based convection is possible during the afternoon and evening from southeast MT/northern WY into the Black Hills as modest large-scale ascent occurs over regions that have destabilized amid boundary-layer heating. Weak buoyancy should temper overall updraft strength, but a few gusty downdrafts are possible. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/08/2025 Read more