Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur today and tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Multiple low-amplitude, mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast to develop east-southeastward today and tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and OH Valley. Rather meager/shallow low-level moisture will tend to limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity across these regions. Even so, sufficient large-scale ascent and weak MUCAPE may still support isolated convection capable of producing lightning through the period. Occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with high-based thunderstorms across parts of SD/NE this afternoon, but organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest as well as across portions of the Midwest and central Plains. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Shortwave trough currently moving through the northern Plains is forecast to continue southeastward throughout the day, reaching the Mid MS Valley by early tomorrow. Some modest amplification of this shortwave is expected as a jet streak progresses through it base. An attendant surface low, currently over southeast NE, will move eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave, reaching the Mid MS Valley tonight and the middle OH Valley by early tomorrow morning. An associated cold front will push southeastward through MO, KS and OK. Limited moisture return will keep buoyancy muted ahead of the front, keeping the potential for surface-based thunderstorm development along the front low. Cooling mid-level temperatures and moistening low/mid-levels will likely result in isolated elevated thunderstorms across IL during the early evening. Persistent warm-air advection along the front should allow for isolated thunderstorms to continue throughout the evening and overnight across central/southern IN, KY, and western/middle TN. An isolated instance or two of small hail is possible but any severe threat should be tempered by limited buoyancy. Farther west, a separate, lower amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern/central Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to this shortwave will spread into the northern and central Plains near peak heating. Modest airmass destabilization is anticipated from the Black Hills across NE where deep mixing is likely, as well as farther north from eastern MT/western ND into MN where cold mid-level temperatures are expected. Isolated thunderstorms are possible within these corridors. Overall severe potential will be very low, but the high-based character of these storms could result in a strong downdraft or two. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest as well as across portions of the Midwest and central Plains. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Shortwave trough currently moving through the northern Plains is forecast to continue southeastward throughout the day, reaching the Mid MS Valley by early tomorrow. Some modest amplification of this shortwave is expected as a jet streak progresses through it base. An attendant surface low, currently over southeast NE, will move eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave, reaching the Mid MS Valley tonight and the middle OH Valley by early tomorrow morning. An associated cold front will push southeastward through MO, KS and OK. Limited moisture return will keep buoyancy muted ahead of the front, keeping the potential for surface-based thunderstorm development along the front low. Cooling mid-level temperatures and moistening low/mid-levels will likely result in isolated elevated thunderstorms across IL during the early evening. Persistent warm-air advection along the front should allow for isolated thunderstorms to continue throughout the evening and overnight across central/southern IN, KY, and western/middle TN. An isolated instance or two of small hail is possible but any severe threat should be tempered by limited buoyancy. Farther west, a separate, lower amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern/central Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to this shortwave will spread into the northern and central Plains near peak heating. Modest airmass destabilization is anticipated from the Black Hills across NE where deep mixing is likely, as well as farther north from eastern MT/western ND into MN where cold mid-level temperatures are expected. Isolated thunderstorms are possible within these corridors. Overall severe potential will be very low, but the high-based character of these storms could result in a strong downdraft or two. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest as well as across portions of the Midwest and central Plains. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Shortwave trough currently moving through the northern Plains is forecast to continue southeastward throughout the day, reaching the Mid MS Valley by early tomorrow. Some modest amplification of this shortwave is expected as a jet streak progresses through it base. An attendant surface low, currently over southeast NE, will move eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave, reaching the Mid MS Valley tonight and the middle OH Valley by early tomorrow morning. An associated cold front will push southeastward through MO, KS and OK. Limited moisture return will keep buoyancy muted ahead of the front, keeping the potential for surface-based thunderstorm development along the front low. Cooling mid-level temperatures and moistening low/mid-levels will likely result in isolated elevated thunderstorms across IL during the early evening. Persistent warm-air advection along the front should allow for isolated thunderstorms to continue throughout the evening and overnight across central/southern IN, KY, and western/middle TN. An isolated instance or two of small hail is possible but any severe threat should be tempered by limited buoyancy. Farther west, a separate, lower amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern/central Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to this shortwave will spread into the northern and central Plains near peak heating. Modest airmass destabilization is anticipated from the Black Hills across NE where deep mixing is likely, as well as farther north from eastern MT/western ND into MN where cold mid-level temperatures are expected. Isolated thunderstorms are possible within these corridors. Overall severe potential will be very low, but the high-based character of these storms could result in a strong downdraft or two. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest as well as across portions of the Midwest and central Plains. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Shortwave trough currently moving through the northern Plains is forecast to continue southeastward throughout the day, reaching the Mid MS Valley by early tomorrow. Some modest amplification of this shortwave is expected as a jet streak progresses through it base. An attendant surface low, currently over southeast NE, will move eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave, reaching the Mid MS Valley tonight and the middle OH Valley by early tomorrow morning. An associated cold front will push southeastward through MO, KS and OK. Limited moisture return will keep buoyancy muted ahead of the front, keeping the potential for surface-based thunderstorm development along the front low. Cooling mid-level temperatures and moistening low/mid-levels will likely result in isolated elevated thunderstorms across IL during the early evening. Persistent warm-air advection along the front should allow for isolated thunderstorms to continue throughout the evening and overnight across central/southern IN, KY, and western/middle TN. An isolated instance or two of small hail is possible but any severe threat should be tempered by limited buoyancy. Farther west, a separate, lower amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern/central Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to this shortwave will spread into the northern and central Plains near peak heating. Modest airmass destabilization is anticipated from the Black Hills across NE where deep mixing is likely, as well as farther north from eastern MT/western ND into MN where cold mid-level temperatures are expected. Isolated thunderstorms are possible within these corridors. Overall severe potential will be very low, but the high-based character of these storms could result in a strong downdraft or two. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest as well as across portions of the Midwest and central Plains. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Shortwave trough currently moving through the northern Plains is forecast to continue southeastward throughout the day, reaching the Mid MS Valley by early tomorrow. Some modest amplification of this shortwave is expected as a jet streak progresses through it base. An attendant surface low, currently over southeast NE, will move eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave, reaching the Mid MS Valley tonight and the middle OH Valley by early tomorrow morning. An associated cold front will push southeastward through MO, KS and OK. Limited moisture return will keep buoyancy muted ahead of the front, keeping the potential for surface-based thunderstorm development along the front low. Cooling mid-level temperatures and moistening low/mid-levels will likely result in isolated elevated thunderstorms across IL during the early evening. Persistent warm-air advection along the front should allow for isolated thunderstorms to continue throughout the evening and overnight across central/southern IN, KY, and western/middle TN. An isolated instance or two of small hail is possible but any severe threat should be tempered by limited buoyancy. Farther west, a separate, lower amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern/central Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to this shortwave will spread into the northern and central Plains near peak heating. Modest airmass destabilization is anticipated from the Black Hills across NE where deep mixing is likely, as well as farther north from eastern MT/western ND into MN where cold mid-level temperatures are expected. Isolated thunderstorms are possible within these corridors. Overall severe potential will be very low, but the high-based character of these storms could result in a strong downdraft or two. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/09/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Day 5/Sunday through Day 6/Monday, a robust midlevel trough will advance eastward from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes. On Day 5/Sunday, a related broad/elongated surface low will move eastward across the northern/central Plains, while a dryline develops farther south over the southern Plains. Isolated strong storms may be possible ahead of the surface low in the Upper MS Valley, though poor boundary-layer moisture will tend to limit the severe risk. Farther south along the dryline, a strong EML and related capping should inhibit thunderstorm development, despite the development of larger buoyancy here. On Day 6/Monday, a cold front will move across the eastern half of the CONUS, in tandem with the eastward-moving trough. Strong midlevel flow and a weakly unstable air mass along the front may support a marginal severe-storm risk from the OH Valley southwestward to the Ozarks. However, considerable differences among the medium-range guidance regarding the quality of boundary-layer moisture ahead of the front casts uncertainty on the overall risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Day 5/Sunday through Day 6/Monday, a robust midlevel trough will advance eastward from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes. On Day 5/Sunday, a related broad/elongated surface low will move eastward across the northern/central Plains, while a dryline develops farther south over the southern Plains. Isolated strong storms may be possible ahead of the surface low in the Upper MS Valley, though poor boundary-layer moisture will tend to limit the severe risk. Farther south along the dryline, a strong EML and related capping should inhibit thunderstorm development, despite the development of larger buoyancy here. On Day 6/Monday, a cold front will move across the eastern half of the CONUS, in tandem with the eastward-moving trough. Strong midlevel flow and a weakly unstable air mass along the front may support a marginal severe-storm risk from the OH Valley southwestward to the Ozarks. However, considerable differences among the medium-range guidance regarding the quality of boundary-layer moisture ahead of the front casts uncertainty on the overall risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Day 5/Sunday through Day 6/Monday, a robust midlevel trough will advance eastward from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes. On Day 5/Sunday, a related broad/elongated surface low will move eastward across the northern/central Plains, while a dryline develops farther south over the southern Plains. Isolated strong storms may be possible ahead of the surface low in the Upper MS Valley, though poor boundary-layer moisture will tend to limit the severe risk. Farther south along the dryline, a strong EML and related capping should inhibit thunderstorm development, despite the development of larger buoyancy here. On Day 6/Monday, a cold front will move across the eastern half of the CONUS, in tandem with the eastward-moving trough. Strong midlevel flow and a weakly unstable air mass along the front may support a marginal severe-storm risk from the OH Valley southwestward to the Ozarks. However, considerable differences among the medium-range guidance regarding the quality of boundary-layer moisture ahead of the front casts uncertainty on the overall risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Day 5/Sunday through Day 6/Monday, a robust midlevel trough will advance eastward from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes. On Day 5/Sunday, a related broad/elongated surface low will move eastward across the northern/central Plains, while a dryline develops farther south over the southern Plains. Isolated strong storms may be possible ahead of the surface low in the Upper MS Valley, though poor boundary-layer moisture will tend to limit the severe risk. Farther south along the dryline, a strong EML and related capping should inhibit thunderstorm development, despite the development of larger buoyancy here. On Day 6/Monday, a cold front will move across the eastern half of the CONUS, in tandem with the eastward-moving trough. Strong midlevel flow and a weakly unstable air mass along the front may support a marginal severe-storm risk from the OH Valley southwestward to the Ozarks. However, considerable differences among the medium-range guidance regarding the quality of boundary-layer moisture ahead of the front casts uncertainty on the overall risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Day 5/Sunday through Day 6/Monday, a robust midlevel trough will advance eastward from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes. On Day 5/Sunday, a related broad/elongated surface low will move eastward across the northern/central Plains, while a dryline develops farther south over the southern Plains. Isolated strong storms may be possible ahead of the surface low in the Upper MS Valley, though poor boundary-layer moisture will tend to limit the severe risk. Farther south along the dryline, a strong EML and related capping should inhibit thunderstorm development, despite the development of larger buoyancy here. On Day 6/Monday, a cold front will move across the eastern half of the CONUS, in tandem with the eastward-moving trough. Strong midlevel flow and a weakly unstable air mass along the front may support a marginal severe-storm risk from the OH Valley southwestward to the Ozarks. However, considerable differences among the medium-range guidance regarding the quality of boundary-layer moisture ahead of the front casts uncertainty on the overall risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Day 5/Sunday through Day 6/Monday, a robust midlevel trough will advance eastward from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes. On Day 5/Sunday, a related broad/elongated surface low will move eastward across the northern/central Plains, while a dryline develops farther south over the southern Plains. Isolated strong storms may be possible ahead of the surface low in the Upper MS Valley, though poor boundary-layer moisture will tend to limit the severe risk. Farther south along the dryline, a strong EML and related capping should inhibit thunderstorm development, despite the development of larger buoyancy here. On Day 6/Monday, a cold front will move across the eastern half of the CONUS, in tandem with the eastward-moving trough. Strong midlevel flow and a weakly unstable air mass along the front may support a marginal severe-storm risk from the OH Valley southwestward to the Ozarks. However, considerable differences among the medium-range guidance regarding the quality of boundary-layer moisture ahead of the front casts uncertainty on the overall risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Day 5/Sunday through Day 6/Monday, a robust midlevel trough will advance eastward from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes. On Day 5/Sunday, a related broad/elongated surface low will move eastward across the northern/central Plains, while a dryline develops farther south over the southern Plains. Isolated strong storms may be possible ahead of the surface low in the Upper MS Valley, though poor boundary-layer moisture will tend to limit the severe risk. Farther south along the dryline, a strong EML and related capping should inhibit thunderstorm development, despite the development of larger buoyancy here. On Day 6/Monday, a cold front will move across the eastern half of the CONUS, in tandem with the eastward-moving trough. Strong midlevel flow and a weakly unstable air mass along the front may support a marginal severe-storm risk from the OH Valley southwestward to the Ozarks. However, considerable differences among the medium-range guidance regarding the quality of boundary-layer moisture ahead of the front casts uncertainty on the overall risk. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A couple strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of eastern North Carolina on Friday. Primary concerns will be isolated severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern North Carolina... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough moving slowly eastward across the Appalachians, the left-exit region of a cyclonically curved midlevel jet streak will overspread the coastal Mid-Atlantic states on Friday morning/afternoon. At the same time, a related surface low, initially over western/central NC, will move slowly eastward through the day. Showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing ahead of the surface low on Friday morning, and related cloud coverage will tend to limit diurnal heating into the afternoon. However, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints beneath cold midlevel temperatures/modest midlevel lapse rates will contribute to sufficient surface-based instability for a couple strong to severe storms through the afternoon -- given around 40 kt of effective shear. Isolated severe hail and locally damaging gusts will be possible with any organized thunderstorms that develop. The spatial extent of the severe risk will be modulated by the timing of the midlevel jet and placement of the surface low, and if the faster solutions (such as the NAM) play out, the severe risk will be confined to the immediate coastal areas or even offshore. ..Weinman.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A couple strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of eastern North Carolina on Friday. Primary concerns will be isolated severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern North Carolina... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough moving slowly eastward across the Appalachians, the left-exit region of a cyclonically curved midlevel jet streak will overspread the coastal Mid-Atlantic states on Friday morning/afternoon. At the same time, a related surface low, initially over western/central NC, will move slowly eastward through the day. Showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing ahead of the surface low on Friday morning, and related cloud coverage will tend to limit diurnal heating into the afternoon. However, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints beneath cold midlevel temperatures/modest midlevel lapse rates will contribute to sufficient surface-based instability for a couple strong to severe storms through the afternoon -- given around 40 kt of effective shear. Isolated severe hail and locally damaging gusts will be possible with any organized thunderstorms that develop. The spatial extent of the severe risk will be modulated by the timing of the midlevel jet and placement of the surface low, and if the faster solutions (such as the NAM) play out, the severe risk will be confined to the immediate coastal areas or even offshore. ..Weinman.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A couple strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of eastern North Carolina on Friday. Primary concerns will be isolated severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern North Carolina... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough moving slowly eastward across the Appalachians, the left-exit region of a cyclonically curved midlevel jet streak will overspread the coastal Mid-Atlantic states on Friday morning/afternoon. At the same time, a related surface low, initially over western/central NC, will move slowly eastward through the day. Showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing ahead of the surface low on Friday morning, and related cloud coverage will tend to limit diurnal heating into the afternoon. However, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints beneath cold midlevel temperatures/modest midlevel lapse rates will contribute to sufficient surface-based instability for a couple strong to severe storms through the afternoon -- given around 40 kt of effective shear. Isolated severe hail and locally damaging gusts will be possible with any organized thunderstorms that develop. The spatial extent of the severe risk will be modulated by the timing of the midlevel jet and placement of the surface low, and if the faster solutions (such as the NAM) play out, the severe risk will be confined to the immediate coastal areas or even offshore. ..Weinman.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A couple strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of eastern North Carolina on Friday. Primary concerns will be isolated severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern North Carolina... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough moving slowly eastward across the Appalachians, the left-exit region of a cyclonically curved midlevel jet streak will overspread the coastal Mid-Atlantic states on Friday morning/afternoon. At the same time, a related surface low, initially over western/central NC, will move slowly eastward through the day. Showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing ahead of the surface low on Friday morning, and related cloud coverage will tend to limit diurnal heating into the afternoon. However, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints beneath cold midlevel temperatures/modest midlevel lapse rates will contribute to sufficient surface-based instability for a couple strong to severe storms through the afternoon -- given around 40 kt of effective shear. Isolated severe hail and locally damaging gusts will be possible with any organized thunderstorms that develop. The spatial extent of the severe risk will be modulated by the timing of the midlevel jet and placement of the surface low, and if the faster solutions (such as the NAM) play out, the severe risk will be confined to the immediate coastal areas or even offshore. ..Weinman.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A couple strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of eastern North Carolina on Friday. Primary concerns will be isolated severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern North Carolina... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough moving slowly eastward across the Appalachians, the left-exit region of a cyclonically curved midlevel jet streak will overspread the coastal Mid-Atlantic states on Friday morning/afternoon. At the same time, a related surface low, initially over western/central NC, will move slowly eastward through the day. Showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing ahead of the surface low on Friday morning, and related cloud coverage will tend to limit diurnal heating into the afternoon. However, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints beneath cold midlevel temperatures/modest midlevel lapse rates will contribute to sufficient surface-based instability for a couple strong to severe storms through the afternoon -- given around 40 kt of effective shear. Isolated severe hail and locally damaging gusts will be possible with any organized thunderstorms that develop. The spatial extent of the severe risk will be modulated by the timing of the midlevel jet and placement of the surface low, and if the faster solutions (such as the NAM) play out, the severe risk will be confined to the immediate coastal areas or even offshore. ..Weinman.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A couple strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of eastern North Carolina on Friday. Primary concerns will be isolated severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern North Carolina... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough moving slowly eastward across the Appalachians, the left-exit region of a cyclonically curved midlevel jet streak will overspread the coastal Mid-Atlantic states on Friday morning/afternoon. At the same time, a related surface low, initially over western/central NC, will move slowly eastward through the day. Showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing ahead of the surface low on Friday morning, and related cloud coverage will tend to limit diurnal heating into the afternoon. However, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints beneath cold midlevel temperatures/modest midlevel lapse rates will contribute to sufficient surface-based instability for a couple strong to severe storms through the afternoon -- given around 40 kt of effective shear. Isolated severe hail and locally damaging gusts will be possible with any organized thunderstorms that develop. The spatial extent of the severe risk will be modulated by the timing of the midlevel jet and placement of the surface low, and if the faster solutions (such as the NAM) play out, the severe risk will be confined to the immediate coastal areas or even offshore. ..Weinman.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID/DEEP SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts will be possible across portions of the Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A positively tiled large-scale trough will advance southeastward from the Upper MS Valley/Midwest to the OH/TN Valleys through the period. Within the base of the trough, a 70-80-kt west-northwesterly midlevel jet will overspread the Mid/Deep South and TN Valley. In response, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints will stream northeastward along/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. ...Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley... Along/ahead of the front, ample diurnal heating of the partially modified Gulf moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (upwards of 8 C/km) will contribute to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. As ascent in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet impinges on the destabilizing air mass along/ahead of the front, a band of scattered thunderstorms will develop across the Mid-South during the afternoon. 50-60 kt of effective shear (characterized by a long/straight hodograph) oriented perpendicular to the front will favor discrete/semi-discrete supercells initially. The primary concern with these storms will be large hail to around 1.5-1.75 inches. As storms track/develop southeastward amid steep boundary-layer lapse rates, strengthening/expanding cold pools and a more boundary-parallel component of the midlevel flow will promote upscale growth into clusters and eventually a broken line into the evening hours. As a result, damaging wind gusts will become an increasing concern, before low-level static stability increases (owing to nocturnal cooling) with southeastward extent. ..Weinman.. 04/09/2025 Read more