Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS as upper ridging persists across the Interior West, supporting surface high pressure and deep-layer northwesterly flow to overspread the central Plains today. Given the presence of a dry boundary layer, efficient downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft is expected by afternoon peak heating given boundary-layer mixing. Widespread 15-20 mph northwesterly surface winds (perhaps reaching 25 mph locally) will coincide with 20 percent RH for several hours across parts of the central Plains, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights given at least modestly dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 04/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS as upper ridging persists across the Interior West, supporting surface high pressure and deep-layer northwesterly flow to overspread the central Plains today. Given the presence of a dry boundary layer, efficient downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft is expected by afternoon peak heating given boundary-layer mixing. Widespread 15-20 mph northwesterly surface winds (perhaps reaching 25 mph locally) will coincide with 20 percent RH for several hours across parts of the central Plains, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights given at least modestly dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 04/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS as upper ridging persists across the Interior West, supporting surface high pressure and deep-layer northwesterly flow to overspread the central Plains today. Given the presence of a dry boundary layer, efficient downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft is expected by afternoon peak heating given boundary-layer mixing. Widespread 15-20 mph northwesterly surface winds (perhaps reaching 25 mph locally) will coincide with 20 percent RH for several hours across parts of the central Plains, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights given at least modestly dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 04/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS as upper ridging persists across the Interior West, supporting surface high pressure and deep-layer northwesterly flow to overspread the central Plains today. Given the presence of a dry boundary layer, efficient downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft is expected by afternoon peak heating given boundary-layer mixing. Widespread 15-20 mph northwesterly surface winds (perhaps reaching 25 mph locally) will coincide with 20 percent RH for several hours across parts of the central Plains, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights given at least modestly dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 04/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS as upper ridging persists across the Interior West, supporting surface high pressure and deep-layer northwesterly flow to overspread the central Plains today. Given the presence of a dry boundary layer, efficient downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft is expected by afternoon peak heating given boundary-layer mixing. Widespread 15-20 mph northwesterly surface winds (perhaps reaching 25 mph locally) will coincide with 20 percent RH for several hours across parts of the central Plains, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights given at least modestly dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 04/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS as upper ridging persists across the Interior West, supporting surface high pressure and deep-layer northwesterly flow to overspread the central Plains today. Given the presence of a dry boundary layer, efficient downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft is expected by afternoon peak heating given boundary-layer mixing. Widespread 15-20 mph northwesterly surface winds (perhaps reaching 25 mph locally) will coincide with 20 percent RH for several hours across parts of the central Plains, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights given at least modestly dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 04/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley and eastern FL. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...01z Outlook... Earlier thoughts regarding convection remain. Strong mid-level speed max is digging southeast across the central Plains and this will allow steep mid-level lapse rates to overspread areas along a corridor from the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are currently noted along this corridor and this type of convection can be expected into the pre-dawn hours, especially over the lower OH Valley where LLJ will be focused. Weak instability does not warrant any meaningful risk of severe. ..Darrow.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley and eastern FL. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...01z Outlook... Earlier thoughts regarding convection remain. Strong mid-level speed max is digging southeast across the central Plains and this will allow steep mid-level lapse rates to overspread areas along a corridor from the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are currently noted along this corridor and this type of convection can be expected into the pre-dawn hours, especially over the lower OH Valley where LLJ will be focused. Weak instability does not warrant any meaningful risk of severe. ..Darrow.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley and eastern FL. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...01z Outlook... Earlier thoughts regarding convection remain. Strong mid-level speed max is digging southeast across the central Plains and this will allow steep mid-level lapse rates to overspread areas along a corridor from the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are currently noted along this corridor and this type of convection can be expected into the pre-dawn hours, especially over the lower OH Valley where LLJ will be focused. Weak instability does not warrant any meaningful risk of severe. ..Darrow.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley and eastern FL. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...01z Outlook... Earlier thoughts regarding convection remain. Strong mid-level speed max is digging southeast across the central Plains and this will allow steep mid-level lapse rates to overspread areas along a corridor from the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are currently noted along this corridor and this type of convection can be expected into the pre-dawn hours, especially over the lower OH Valley where LLJ will be focused. Weak instability does not warrant any meaningful risk of severe. ..Darrow.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley and eastern FL. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...01z Outlook... Earlier thoughts regarding convection remain. Strong mid-level speed max is digging southeast across the central Plains and this will allow steep mid-level lapse rates to overspread areas along a corridor from the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are currently noted along this corridor and this type of convection can be expected into the pre-dawn hours, especially over the lower OH Valley where LLJ will be focused. Weak instability does not warrant any meaningful risk of severe. ..Darrow.. 04/10/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 9 22:14:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Apr 9 22:14:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A deepening upper-level trough will translate eastward across the eastern U.S. through the weekend bringing widespread precipitation to the Appalachians, the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic regions mitigating fire weather concerns. Farther west, fire weather threat increases for the weekend across much of the Desert Southwest portions of the southern High Plains as an upper-level trough traverses the Northern Rockies into the Dakotas. Another pronounced trough and attendant cold front progresses into the eastern U.S. for day 6/Monday and day 7/Tuesday while above normal temperatures build across the West. ...Day 4/Saturday - Day 5/Sunday: Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains... A broad area of increasing mid-level westerly flow south of an upper-level trough moving through the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains is expected across the Desert Southwest and portions of the southern High Plains over the weekend (day 4/5). Daytime mixing within a very dry boundary layer Saturday and Sunday will translate to stronger west-southwest surface winds combined with widespread relative humidity of 10 percent or less across the lower elevations of the Desert Southwest. Near record heat across the region over the weekend will aid in drying fuels preceding the synoptic wind event. In addition, strong westerly flow aloft could also promote enhanced downslope flow along the Colorado Front Range for day 5/Sunday. Thus, 40 percent Critical probabilities continue for these regions. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A deepening upper-level trough will translate eastward across the eastern U.S. through the weekend bringing widespread precipitation to the Appalachians, the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic regions mitigating fire weather concerns. Farther west, fire weather threat increases for the weekend across much of the Desert Southwest portions of the southern High Plains as an upper-level trough traverses the Northern Rockies into the Dakotas. Another pronounced trough and attendant cold front progresses into the eastern U.S. for day 6/Monday and day 7/Tuesday while above normal temperatures build across the West. ...Day 4/Saturday - Day 5/Sunday: Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains... A broad area of increasing mid-level westerly flow south of an upper-level trough moving through the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains is expected across the Desert Southwest and portions of the southern High Plains over the weekend (day 4/5). Daytime mixing within a very dry boundary layer Saturday and Sunday will translate to stronger west-southwest surface winds combined with widespread relative humidity of 10 percent or less across the lower elevations of the Desert Southwest. Near record heat across the region over the weekend will aid in drying fuels preceding the synoptic wind event. In addition, strong westerly flow aloft could also promote enhanced downslope flow along the Colorado Front Range for day 5/Sunday. Thus, 40 percent Critical probabilities continue for these regions. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A deepening upper-level trough will translate eastward across the eastern U.S. through the weekend bringing widespread precipitation to the Appalachians, the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic regions mitigating fire weather concerns. Farther west, fire weather threat increases for the weekend across much of the Desert Southwest portions of the southern High Plains as an upper-level trough traverses the Northern Rockies into the Dakotas. Another pronounced trough and attendant cold front progresses into the eastern U.S. for day 6/Monday and day 7/Tuesday while above normal temperatures build across the West. ...Day 4/Saturday - Day 5/Sunday: Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains... A broad area of increasing mid-level westerly flow south of an upper-level trough moving through the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains is expected across the Desert Southwest and portions of the southern High Plains over the weekend (day 4/5). Daytime mixing within a very dry boundary layer Saturday and Sunday will translate to stronger west-southwest surface winds combined with widespread relative humidity of 10 percent or less across the lower elevations of the Desert Southwest. Near record heat across the region over the weekend will aid in drying fuels preceding the synoptic wind event. In addition, strong westerly flow aloft could also promote enhanced downslope flow along the Colorado Front Range for day 5/Sunday. Thus, 40 percent Critical probabilities continue for these regions. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A deepening upper-level trough will translate eastward across the eastern U.S. through the weekend bringing widespread precipitation to the Appalachians, the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic regions mitigating fire weather concerns. Farther west, fire weather threat increases for the weekend across much of the Desert Southwest portions of the southern High Plains as an upper-level trough traverses the Northern Rockies into the Dakotas. Another pronounced trough and attendant cold front progresses into the eastern U.S. for day 6/Monday and day 7/Tuesday while above normal temperatures build across the West. ...Day 4/Saturday - Day 5/Sunday: Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains... A broad area of increasing mid-level westerly flow south of an upper-level trough moving through the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains is expected across the Desert Southwest and portions of the southern High Plains over the weekend (day 4/5). Daytime mixing within a very dry boundary layer Saturday and Sunday will translate to stronger west-southwest surface winds combined with widespread relative humidity of 10 percent or less across the lower elevations of the Desert Southwest. Near record heat across the region over the weekend will aid in drying fuels preceding the synoptic wind event. In addition, strong westerly flow aloft could also promote enhanced downslope flow along the Colorado Front Range for day 5/Sunday. Thus, 40 percent Critical probabilities continue for these regions. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A deepening upper-level trough will translate eastward across the eastern U.S. through the weekend bringing widespread precipitation to the Appalachians, the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic regions mitigating fire weather concerns. Farther west, fire weather threat increases for the weekend across much of the Desert Southwest portions of the southern High Plains as an upper-level trough traverses the Northern Rockies into the Dakotas. Another pronounced trough and attendant cold front progresses into the eastern U.S. for day 6/Monday and day 7/Tuesday while above normal temperatures build across the West. ...Day 4/Saturday - Day 5/Sunday: Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains... A broad area of increasing mid-level westerly flow south of an upper-level trough moving through the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains is expected across the Desert Southwest and portions of the southern High Plains over the weekend (day 4/5). Daytime mixing within a very dry boundary layer Saturday and Sunday will translate to stronger west-southwest surface winds combined with widespread relative humidity of 10 percent or less across the lower elevations of the Desert Southwest. Near record heat across the region over the weekend will aid in drying fuels preceding the synoptic wind event. In addition, strong westerly flow aloft could also promote enhanced downslope flow along the Colorado Front Range for day 5/Sunday. Thus, 40 percent Critical probabilities continue for these regions. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A deepening upper-level trough will translate eastward across the eastern U.S. through the weekend bringing widespread precipitation to the Appalachians, the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic regions mitigating fire weather concerns. Farther west, fire weather threat increases for the weekend across much of the Desert Southwest portions of the southern High Plains as an upper-level trough traverses the Northern Rockies into the Dakotas. Another pronounced trough and attendant cold front progresses into the eastern U.S. for day 6/Monday and day 7/Tuesday while above normal temperatures build across the West. ...Day 4/Saturday - Day 5/Sunday: Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains... A broad area of increasing mid-level westerly flow south of an upper-level trough moving through the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains is expected across the Desert Southwest and portions of the southern High Plains over the weekend (day 4/5). Daytime mixing within a very dry boundary layer Saturday and Sunday will translate to stronger west-southwest surface winds combined with widespread relative humidity of 10 percent or less across the lower elevations of the Desert Southwest. Near record heat across the region over the weekend will aid in drying fuels preceding the synoptic wind event. In addition, strong westerly flow aloft could also promote enhanced downslope flow along the Colorado Front Range for day 5/Sunday. Thus, 40 percent Critical probabilities continue for these regions. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible through tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley and eastern FL. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20z Update... Only minor changes were made to the thunder areas across parts of NE and MT for the latest guidance and ongoing storms. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Multiple low-amplitude, mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast to develop east-southeastward today and tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and OH Valley. Rather meager/shallow low-level moisture will tend to limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity across these regions. Even so, sufficient large-scale ascent and weak MUCAPE may still support isolated convection capable of producing lightning through the period. Occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with high-based thunderstorms across parts of SD/NE this afternoon, but organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast. Read more