Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Guyer.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Guyer.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Guyer.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South this afternoon. Hail and wind are the primary concerns. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing is forecast to shift eastward across the eastern CONUS today, as a series of embedded shortwave trough progress through its base. The lead wave in this series is currently moving through Lower/Middle OH Valley with a second wave farther back northwest across the Upper Midwest/Mid MO Valley. This second wave, which is accompanied by an 80 kt 500 mb jet streak, is expected to continue southeastward throughout the day, reaching the Mid-South vicinity by this evening before continuing more eastward into southern Appalachians by early Friday. Surface pattern preceding this upper troughing will be somewhat disorganized and broad, with one weak low moving northeastward across the Upper OH Valley and another moving southeastward across the Mid MS Valley and KY/TN. A diffuse cold front is forecast to shift southeastward across the OH Valley into the Mid-South and eventually the Southeast. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this front throughout the afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/TN and OH Valleys into the Southeast... Area soundings reveal the steep mid-level lapse rates (i.e. greater than 7 deg C per km) extend throughout much of the region, supported by a large area of cold mid-level temperatures (-18 to -24 deg C at 500 mb). These cold mid-level temperatures will help support airmass destabilization and modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and cold front, despite relatively modest low-level moisture. Forcing for ascent along the front, as well as more broad large-scale ascent, will interact with this destabilized airmass to support thunderstorm development across much of the region this afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized along the front, but initiation could also occur elsewhere across the region given the broad ascent and large destabilized area. Deep mixing is anticipated across the region, resulting in a thermodynamic profile that is somewhat unique for this part of the country. This profile will result in high-based thunderstorms capable of producing strong cold pools, particularly given that shear is quite strong and updraft organization is likely. Primary factor precluding greater severe potential is the limited low-level moisture and resulting modest buoyancy. That being said, the long hodographs suggest storms could be efficient at producing hail during their initially more discrete stage, with a trend towards cold pool amalgamation thereafter. Consequently, several bowing segments could develop, each with the potential to produce damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South this afternoon. Hail and wind are the primary concerns. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing is forecast to shift eastward across the eastern CONUS today, as a series of embedded shortwave trough progress through its base. The lead wave in this series is currently moving through Lower/Middle OH Valley with a second wave farther back northwest across the Upper Midwest/Mid MO Valley. This second wave, which is accompanied by an 80 kt 500 mb jet streak, is expected to continue southeastward throughout the day, reaching the Mid-South vicinity by this evening before continuing more eastward into southern Appalachians by early Friday. Surface pattern preceding this upper troughing will be somewhat disorganized and broad, with one weak low moving northeastward across the Upper OH Valley and another moving southeastward across the Mid MS Valley and KY/TN. A diffuse cold front is forecast to shift southeastward across the OH Valley into the Mid-South and eventually the Southeast. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this front throughout the afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/TN and OH Valleys into the Southeast... Area soundings reveal the steep mid-level lapse rates (i.e. greater than 7 deg C per km) extend throughout much of the region, supported by a large area of cold mid-level temperatures (-18 to -24 deg C at 500 mb). These cold mid-level temperatures will help support airmass destabilization and modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and cold front, despite relatively modest low-level moisture. Forcing for ascent along the front, as well as more broad large-scale ascent, will interact with this destabilized airmass to support thunderstorm development across much of the region this afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized along the front, but initiation could also occur elsewhere across the region given the broad ascent and large destabilized area. Deep mixing is anticipated across the region, resulting in a thermodynamic profile that is somewhat unique for this part of the country. This profile will result in high-based thunderstorms capable of producing strong cold pools, particularly given that shear is quite strong and updraft organization is likely. Primary factor precluding greater severe potential is the limited low-level moisture and resulting modest buoyancy. That being said, the long hodographs suggest storms could be efficient at producing hail during their initially more discrete stage, with a trend towards cold pool amalgamation thereafter. Consequently, several bowing segments could develop, each with the potential to produce damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South this afternoon. Hail and wind are the primary concerns. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing is forecast to shift eastward across the eastern CONUS today, as a series of embedded shortwave trough progress through its base. The lead wave in this series is currently moving through Lower/Middle OH Valley with a second wave farther back northwest across the Upper Midwest/Mid MO Valley. This second wave, which is accompanied by an 80 kt 500 mb jet streak, is expected to continue southeastward throughout the day, reaching the Mid-South vicinity by this evening before continuing more eastward into southern Appalachians by early Friday. Surface pattern preceding this upper troughing will be somewhat disorganized and broad, with one weak low moving northeastward across the Upper OH Valley and another moving southeastward across the Mid MS Valley and KY/TN. A diffuse cold front is forecast to shift southeastward across the OH Valley into the Mid-South and eventually the Southeast. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this front throughout the afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/TN and OH Valleys into the Southeast... Area soundings reveal the steep mid-level lapse rates (i.e. greater than 7 deg C per km) extend throughout much of the region, supported by a large area of cold mid-level temperatures (-18 to -24 deg C at 500 mb). These cold mid-level temperatures will help support airmass destabilization and modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and cold front, despite relatively modest low-level moisture. Forcing for ascent along the front, as well as more broad large-scale ascent, will interact with this destabilized airmass to support thunderstorm development across much of the region this afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized along the front, but initiation could also occur elsewhere across the region given the broad ascent and large destabilized area. Deep mixing is anticipated across the region, resulting in a thermodynamic profile that is somewhat unique for this part of the country. This profile will result in high-based thunderstorms capable of producing strong cold pools, particularly given that shear is quite strong and updraft organization is likely. Primary factor precluding greater severe potential is the limited low-level moisture and resulting modest buoyancy. That being said, the long hodographs suggest storms could be efficient at producing hail during their initially more discrete stage, with a trend towards cold pool amalgamation thereafter. Consequently, several bowing segments could develop, each with the potential to produce damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South this afternoon. Hail and wind are the primary concerns. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing is forecast to shift eastward across the eastern CONUS today, as a series of embedded shortwave trough progress through its base. The lead wave in this series is currently moving through Lower/Middle OH Valley with a second wave farther back northwest across the Upper Midwest/Mid MO Valley. This second wave, which is accompanied by an 80 kt 500 mb jet streak, is expected to continue southeastward throughout the day, reaching the Mid-South vicinity by this evening before continuing more eastward into southern Appalachians by early Friday. Surface pattern preceding this upper troughing will be somewhat disorganized and broad, with one weak low moving northeastward across the Upper OH Valley and another moving southeastward across the Mid MS Valley and KY/TN. A diffuse cold front is forecast to shift southeastward across the OH Valley into the Mid-South and eventually the Southeast. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this front throughout the afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/TN and OH Valleys into the Southeast... Area soundings reveal the steep mid-level lapse rates (i.e. greater than 7 deg C per km) extend throughout much of the region, supported by a large area of cold mid-level temperatures (-18 to -24 deg C at 500 mb). These cold mid-level temperatures will help support airmass destabilization and modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and cold front, despite relatively modest low-level moisture. Forcing for ascent along the front, as well as more broad large-scale ascent, will interact with this destabilized airmass to support thunderstorm development across much of the region this afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized along the front, but initiation could also occur elsewhere across the region given the broad ascent and large destabilized area. Deep mixing is anticipated across the region, resulting in a thermodynamic profile that is somewhat unique for this part of the country. This profile will result in high-based thunderstorms capable of producing strong cold pools, particularly given that shear is quite strong and updraft organization is likely. Primary factor precluding greater severe potential is the limited low-level moisture and resulting modest buoyancy. That being said, the long hodographs suggest storms could be efficient at producing hail during their initially more discrete stage, with a trend towards cold pool amalgamation thereafter. Consequently, several bowing segments could develop, each with the potential to produce damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South this afternoon. Hail and wind are the primary concerns. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing is forecast to shift eastward across the eastern CONUS today, as a series of embedded shortwave trough progress through its base. The lead wave in this series is currently moving through Lower/Middle OH Valley with a second wave farther back northwest across the Upper Midwest/Mid MO Valley. This second wave, which is accompanied by an 80 kt 500 mb jet streak, is expected to continue southeastward throughout the day, reaching the Mid-South vicinity by this evening before continuing more eastward into southern Appalachians by early Friday. Surface pattern preceding this upper troughing will be somewhat disorganized and broad, with one weak low moving northeastward across the Upper OH Valley and another moving southeastward across the Mid MS Valley and KY/TN. A diffuse cold front is forecast to shift southeastward across the OH Valley into the Mid-South and eventually the Southeast. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this front throughout the afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/TN and OH Valleys into the Southeast... Area soundings reveal the steep mid-level lapse rates (i.e. greater than 7 deg C per km) extend throughout much of the region, supported by a large area of cold mid-level temperatures (-18 to -24 deg C at 500 mb). These cold mid-level temperatures will help support airmass destabilization and modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and cold front, despite relatively modest low-level moisture. Forcing for ascent along the front, as well as more broad large-scale ascent, will interact with this destabilized airmass to support thunderstorm development across much of the region this afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized along the front, but initiation could also occur elsewhere across the region given the broad ascent and large destabilized area. Deep mixing is anticipated across the region, resulting in a thermodynamic profile that is somewhat unique for this part of the country. This profile will result in high-based thunderstorms capable of producing strong cold pools, particularly given that shear is quite strong and updraft organization is likely. Primary factor precluding greater severe potential is the limited low-level moisture and resulting modest buoyancy. That being said, the long hodographs suggest storms could be efficient at producing hail during their initially more discrete stage, with a trend towards cold pool amalgamation thereafter. Consequently, several bowing segments could develop, each with the potential to produce damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/10/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Primary feature of interest will be a shortwave trough over MT at 12Z Sunday and its major amplification into a broad eastern CONUS/southeast Canadian trough through mid-week. Poleward moisture quality from the western Gulf will remain sub-optimal, but will improve through D5/Monday. The northeast extent of weak surface buoyancy should reach the OH Valley by Monday afternoon, where guidance has been trending farther south with an intense mid-level jet. Given a prior EML and the deep surface cyclone tracking over Lake Superior to central ON vicinity, convective coverage may be limited along the trailing cold front. Still, consensus of guidance suggests that some fast-moving convection should accompany the portion of the front in the OH Valley vicinity. Robust 700-500 mb wind profiles should offer at least a threat for damaging winds. Depending upon timing of frontal passage, a limited-area severe threat may exist on D6/Tuesday along the Southeast Atlantic coast. A compact southern-stream shortwave impulse, approaching the backside of the broad east CONUS trough, indicates low-probability severe potential over the southern Great Plains on D7/Wednesday into the western Gulf Coast vicinity D8/Thursday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Primary feature of interest will be a shortwave trough over MT at 12Z Sunday and its major amplification into a broad eastern CONUS/southeast Canadian trough through mid-week. Poleward moisture quality from the western Gulf will remain sub-optimal, but will improve through D5/Monday. The northeast extent of weak surface buoyancy should reach the OH Valley by Monday afternoon, where guidance has been trending farther south with an intense mid-level jet. Given a prior EML and the deep surface cyclone tracking over Lake Superior to central ON vicinity, convective coverage may be limited along the trailing cold front. Still, consensus of guidance suggests that some fast-moving convection should accompany the portion of the front in the OH Valley vicinity. Robust 700-500 mb wind profiles should offer at least a threat for damaging winds. Depending upon timing of frontal passage, a limited-area severe threat may exist on D6/Tuesday along the Southeast Atlantic coast. A compact southern-stream shortwave impulse, approaching the backside of the broad east CONUS trough, indicates low-probability severe potential over the southern Great Plains on D7/Wednesday into the western Gulf Coast vicinity D8/Thursday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Primary feature of interest will be a shortwave trough over MT at 12Z Sunday and its major amplification into a broad eastern CONUS/southeast Canadian trough through mid-week. Poleward moisture quality from the western Gulf will remain sub-optimal, but will improve through D5/Monday. The northeast extent of weak surface buoyancy should reach the OH Valley by Monday afternoon, where guidance has been trending farther south with an intense mid-level jet. Given a prior EML and the deep surface cyclone tracking over Lake Superior to central ON vicinity, convective coverage may be limited along the trailing cold front. Still, consensus of guidance suggests that some fast-moving convection should accompany the portion of the front in the OH Valley vicinity. Robust 700-500 mb wind profiles should offer at least a threat for damaging winds. Depending upon timing of frontal passage, a limited-area severe threat may exist on D6/Tuesday along the Southeast Atlantic coast. A compact southern-stream shortwave impulse, approaching the backside of the broad east CONUS trough, indicates low-probability severe potential over the southern Great Plains on D7/Wednesday into the western Gulf Coast vicinity D8/Thursday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Primary feature of interest will be a shortwave trough over MT at 12Z Sunday and its major amplification into a broad eastern CONUS/southeast Canadian trough through mid-week. Poleward moisture quality from the western Gulf will remain sub-optimal, but will improve through D5/Monday. The northeast extent of weak surface buoyancy should reach the OH Valley by Monday afternoon, where guidance has been trending farther south with an intense mid-level jet. Given a prior EML and the deep surface cyclone tracking over Lake Superior to central ON vicinity, convective coverage may be limited along the trailing cold front. Still, consensus of guidance suggests that some fast-moving convection should accompany the portion of the front in the OH Valley vicinity. Robust 700-500 mb wind profiles should offer at least a threat for damaging winds. Depending upon timing of frontal passage, a limited-area severe threat may exist on D6/Tuesday along the Southeast Atlantic coast. A compact southern-stream shortwave impulse, approaching the backside of the broad east CONUS trough, indicates low-probability severe potential over the southern Great Plains on D7/Wednesday into the western Gulf Coast vicinity D8/Thursday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Primary feature of interest will be a shortwave trough over MT at 12Z Sunday and its major amplification into a broad eastern CONUS/southeast Canadian trough through mid-week. Poleward moisture quality from the western Gulf will remain sub-optimal, but will improve through D5/Monday. The northeast extent of weak surface buoyancy should reach the OH Valley by Monday afternoon, where guidance has been trending farther south with an intense mid-level jet. Given a prior EML and the deep surface cyclone tracking over Lake Superior to central ON vicinity, convective coverage may be limited along the trailing cold front. Still, consensus of guidance suggests that some fast-moving convection should accompany the portion of the front in the OH Valley vicinity. Robust 700-500 mb wind profiles should offer at least a threat for damaging winds. Depending upon timing of frontal passage, a limited-area severe threat may exist on D6/Tuesday along the Southeast Atlantic coast. A compact southern-stream shortwave impulse, approaching the backside of the broad east CONUS trough, indicates low-probability severe potential over the southern Great Plains on D7/Wednesday into the western Gulf Coast vicinity D8/Thursday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Primary feature of interest will be a shortwave trough over MT at 12Z Sunday and its major amplification into a broad eastern CONUS/southeast Canadian trough through mid-week. Poleward moisture quality from the western Gulf will remain sub-optimal, but will improve through D5/Monday. The northeast extent of weak surface buoyancy should reach the OH Valley by Monday afternoon, where guidance has been trending farther south with an intense mid-level jet. Given a prior EML and the deep surface cyclone tracking over Lake Superior to central ON vicinity, convective coverage may be limited along the trailing cold front. Still, consensus of guidance suggests that some fast-moving convection should accompany the portion of the front in the OH Valley vicinity. Robust 700-500 mb wind profiles should offer at least a threat for damaging winds. Depending upon timing of frontal passage, a limited-area severe threat may exist on D6/Tuesday along the Southeast Atlantic coast. A compact southern-stream shortwave impulse, approaching the backside of the broad east CONUS trough, indicates low-probability severe potential over the southern Great Plains on D7/Wednesday into the western Gulf Coast vicinity D8/Thursday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Primary feature of interest will be a shortwave trough over MT at 12Z Sunday and its major amplification into a broad eastern CONUS/southeast Canadian trough through mid-week. Poleward moisture quality from the western Gulf will remain sub-optimal, but will improve through D5/Monday. The northeast extent of weak surface buoyancy should reach the OH Valley by Monday afternoon, where guidance has been trending farther south with an intense mid-level jet. Given a prior EML and the deep surface cyclone tracking over Lake Superior to central ON vicinity, convective coverage may be limited along the trailing cold front. Still, consensus of guidance suggests that some fast-moving convection should accompany the portion of the front in the OH Valley vicinity. Robust 700-500 mb wind profiles should offer at least a threat for damaging winds. Depending upon timing of frontal passage, a limited-area severe threat may exist on D6/Tuesday along the Southeast Atlantic coast. A compact southern-stream shortwave impulse, approaching the backside of the broad east CONUS trough, indicates low-probability severe potential over the southern Great Plains on D7/Wednesday into the western Gulf Coast vicinity D8/Thursday. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Central Rockies to the Upper Midwest... A mid-level ridge from the southern High Plains to the Upper Midwest at 12Z Saturday morning will shift east and gradually dampen, as a shortwave trough progresses across the northern Rockies and into MT through early Sunday. Large-scale ascent will strengthen near peak diurnal heating across parts of the central Rockies to the Black Hills. With only scant buoyancy, isolated/short-lived thunderstorms are anticipated amid scattered high-based/low-topped showers. Where deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles exist in eastern WY and western SD, a very isolated strong gust will be possible. Strengthening of the Great Plains LLJ on Saturday night should eventually yield isolated thunder potential across the Mid-MO Valley into the Upper Midwest. With poor-quality moisture return relative to the EML, uninhibited parcels may be rather elevated. The threat for severe hail overnight in this setup appears low. ..Grams.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Central Rockies to the Upper Midwest... A mid-level ridge from the southern High Plains to the Upper Midwest at 12Z Saturday morning will shift east and gradually dampen, as a shortwave trough progresses across the northern Rockies and into MT through early Sunday. Large-scale ascent will strengthen near peak diurnal heating across parts of the central Rockies to the Black Hills. With only scant buoyancy, isolated/short-lived thunderstorms are anticipated amid scattered high-based/low-topped showers. Where deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles exist in eastern WY and western SD, a very isolated strong gust will be possible. Strengthening of the Great Plains LLJ on Saturday night should eventually yield isolated thunder potential across the Mid-MO Valley into the Upper Midwest. With poor-quality moisture return relative to the EML, uninhibited parcels may be rather elevated. The threat for severe hail overnight in this setup appears low. ..Grams.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Central Rockies to the Upper Midwest... A mid-level ridge from the southern High Plains to the Upper Midwest at 12Z Saturday morning will shift east and gradually dampen, as a shortwave trough progresses across the northern Rockies and into MT through early Sunday. Large-scale ascent will strengthen near peak diurnal heating across parts of the central Rockies to the Black Hills. With only scant buoyancy, isolated/short-lived thunderstorms are anticipated amid scattered high-based/low-topped showers. Where deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles exist in eastern WY and western SD, a very isolated strong gust will be possible. Strengthening of the Great Plains LLJ on Saturday night should eventually yield isolated thunder potential across the Mid-MO Valley into the Upper Midwest. With poor-quality moisture return relative to the EML, uninhibited parcels may be rather elevated. The threat for severe hail overnight in this setup appears low. ..Grams.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Central Rockies to the Upper Midwest... A mid-level ridge from the southern High Plains to the Upper Midwest at 12Z Saturday morning will shift east and gradually dampen, as a shortwave trough progresses across the northern Rockies and into MT through early Sunday. Large-scale ascent will strengthen near peak diurnal heating across parts of the central Rockies to the Black Hills. With only scant buoyancy, isolated/short-lived thunderstorms are anticipated amid scattered high-based/low-topped showers. Where deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles exist in eastern WY and western SD, a very isolated strong gust will be possible. Strengthening of the Great Plains LLJ on Saturday night should eventually yield isolated thunder potential across the Mid-MO Valley into the Upper Midwest. With poor-quality moisture return relative to the EML, uninhibited parcels may be rather elevated. The threat for severe hail overnight in this setup appears low. ..Grams.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Central Rockies to the Upper Midwest... A mid-level ridge from the southern High Plains to the Upper Midwest at 12Z Saturday morning will shift east and gradually dampen, as a shortwave trough progresses across the northern Rockies and into MT through early Sunday. Large-scale ascent will strengthen near peak diurnal heating across parts of the central Rockies to the Black Hills. With only scant buoyancy, isolated/short-lived thunderstorms are anticipated amid scattered high-based/low-topped showers. Where deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles exist in eastern WY and western SD, a very isolated strong gust will be possible. Strengthening of the Great Plains LLJ on Saturday night should eventually yield isolated thunder potential across the Mid-MO Valley into the Upper Midwest. With poor-quality moisture return relative to the EML, uninhibited parcels may be rather elevated. The threat for severe hail overnight in this setup appears low. ..Grams.. 04/10/2025 Read more