Severe Storms

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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...Eastern Carolinas into Southeast Virginia... A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms is approaching the southern Appalachians by mid-day Thursday along a low-mid-level front which will continue east through the day. Some intensification of these thunderstorms (or additional convective development along the mountains) is expected today which will impact the Friday/Day 2 forecast. As the remnants of this front/mountain convection interact with better low-level moisture across eastern North Carolina later tonight, some intensification of these storms are anticipated. While these storms likely will remain sub-severe without any surface heating and thus minimal instability, the intensification should assist in the remnant outflow boundary/front moving offshore during the morning hours on Friday. This will have a stabilizing effect which results in a conditional severe threat on Day 2/Friday. Some guidance shows a strengthening surface low which results in substantial return flow across the eastern Carolinas, which will result in low 60s dewpoints and weak to moderate instability by later morning to early afternoon. However, if this stronger cyclogenesis does not occur (as forecast by several hi-res models this morning), the instability and severe weather threat will remain mostly offshore. No modifications were made to the marginal risk, but a 2% tornado probability was added for parts of eastern North Carolina. If stronger southerly/southeasterly flow and low 60s dewpoints can develop ahead of a strengthening surface low, a tornado is possible. Overall, a few strong to isolated severe storms are possible with a primary threat of large hail. However, this threat is conditional on destabilization, which remains questionable at this time. ...Southeast Georgia and northern Florida... Strong heating is anticipated along a frontal zone from southeast Georgia to northern Florida Friday afternoon. Forecast soundings show 500 to 750 J/kg MLCAPE with a well-mixed boundary layer extending to near 3km. Overall lack of moisture should limit instability and storm intensity, but 35 to 45 knots of shear will support some storm organization. Therefore, the strongest storms could exhibit some updraft rotation with an increased large hail/severe wind threat, but overall expect the threat to remain isolated. ..Bentley.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...Eastern Carolinas into Southeast Virginia... A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms is approaching the southern Appalachians by mid-day Thursday along a low-mid-level front which will continue east through the day. Some intensification of these thunderstorms (or additional convective development along the mountains) is expected today which will impact the Friday/Day 2 forecast. As the remnants of this front/mountain convection interact with better low-level moisture across eastern North Carolina later tonight, some intensification of these storms are anticipated. While these storms likely will remain sub-severe without any surface heating and thus minimal instability, the intensification should assist in the remnant outflow boundary/front moving offshore during the morning hours on Friday. This will have a stabilizing effect which results in a conditional severe threat on Day 2/Friday. Some guidance shows a strengthening surface low which results in substantial return flow across the eastern Carolinas, which will result in low 60s dewpoints and weak to moderate instability by later morning to early afternoon. However, if this stronger cyclogenesis does not occur (as forecast by several hi-res models this morning), the instability and severe weather threat will remain mostly offshore. No modifications were made to the marginal risk, but a 2% tornado probability was added for parts of eastern North Carolina. If stronger southerly/southeasterly flow and low 60s dewpoints can develop ahead of a strengthening surface low, a tornado is possible. Overall, a few strong to isolated severe storms are possible with a primary threat of large hail. However, this threat is conditional on destabilization, which remains questionable at this time. ...Southeast Georgia and northern Florida... Strong heating is anticipated along a frontal zone from southeast Georgia to northern Florida Friday afternoon. Forecast soundings show 500 to 750 J/kg MLCAPE with a well-mixed boundary layer extending to near 3km. Overall lack of moisture should limit instability and storm intensity, but 35 to 45 knots of shear will support some storm organization. Therefore, the strongest storms could exhibit some updraft rotation with an increased large hail/severe wind threat, but overall expect the threat to remain isolated. ..Bentley.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...Eastern Carolinas into Southeast Virginia... A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms is approaching the southern Appalachians by mid-day Thursday along a low-mid-level front which will continue east through the day. Some intensification of these thunderstorms (or additional convective development along the mountains) is expected today which will impact the Friday/Day 2 forecast. As the remnants of this front/mountain convection interact with better low-level moisture across eastern North Carolina later tonight, some intensification of these storms are anticipated. While these storms likely will remain sub-severe without any surface heating and thus minimal instability, the intensification should assist in the remnant outflow boundary/front moving offshore during the morning hours on Friday. This will have a stabilizing effect which results in a conditional severe threat on Day 2/Friday. Some guidance shows a strengthening surface low which results in substantial return flow across the eastern Carolinas, which will result in low 60s dewpoints and weak to moderate instability by later morning to early afternoon. However, if this stronger cyclogenesis does not occur (as forecast by several hi-res models this morning), the instability and severe weather threat will remain mostly offshore. No modifications were made to the marginal risk, but a 2% tornado probability was added for parts of eastern North Carolina. If stronger southerly/southeasterly flow and low 60s dewpoints can develop ahead of a strengthening surface low, a tornado is possible. Overall, a few strong to isolated severe storms are possible with a primary threat of large hail. However, this threat is conditional on destabilization, which remains questionable at this time. ...Southeast Georgia and northern Florida... Strong heating is anticipated along a frontal zone from southeast Georgia to northern Florida Friday afternoon. Forecast soundings show 500 to 750 J/kg MLCAPE with a well-mixed boundary layer extending to near 3km. Overall lack of moisture should limit instability and storm intensity, but 35 to 45 knots of shear will support some storm organization. Therefore, the strongest storms could exhibit some updraft rotation with an increased large hail/severe wind threat, but overall expect the threat to remain isolated. ..Bentley.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...Eastern Carolinas into Southeast Virginia... A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms is approaching the southern Appalachians by mid-day Thursday along a low-mid-level front which will continue east through the day. Some intensification of these thunderstorms (or additional convective development along the mountains) is expected today which will impact the Friday/Day 2 forecast. As the remnants of this front/mountain convection interact with better low-level moisture across eastern North Carolina later tonight, some intensification of these storms are anticipated. While these storms likely will remain sub-severe without any surface heating and thus minimal instability, the intensification should assist in the remnant outflow boundary/front moving offshore during the morning hours on Friday. This will have a stabilizing effect which results in a conditional severe threat on Day 2/Friday. Some guidance shows a strengthening surface low which results in substantial return flow across the eastern Carolinas, which will result in low 60s dewpoints and weak to moderate instability by later morning to early afternoon. However, if this stronger cyclogenesis does not occur (as forecast by several hi-res models this morning), the instability and severe weather threat will remain mostly offshore. No modifications were made to the marginal risk, but a 2% tornado probability was added for parts of eastern North Carolina. If stronger southerly/southeasterly flow and low 60s dewpoints can develop ahead of a strengthening surface low, a tornado is possible. Overall, a few strong to isolated severe storms are possible with a primary threat of large hail. However, this threat is conditional on destabilization, which remains questionable at this time. ...Southeast Georgia and northern Florida... Strong heating is anticipated along a frontal zone from southeast Georgia to northern Florida Friday afternoon. Forecast soundings show 500 to 750 J/kg MLCAPE with a well-mixed boundary layer extending to near 3km. Overall lack of moisture should limit instability and storm intensity, but 35 to 45 knots of shear will support some storm organization. Therefore, the strongest storms could exhibit some updraft rotation with an increased large hail/severe wind threat, but overall expect the threat to remain isolated. ..Bentley.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...Eastern Carolinas into Southeast Virginia... A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms is approaching the southern Appalachians by mid-day Thursday along a low-mid-level front which will continue east through the day. Some intensification of these thunderstorms (or additional convective development along the mountains) is expected today which will impact the Friday/Day 2 forecast. As the remnants of this front/mountain convection interact with better low-level moisture across eastern North Carolina later tonight, some intensification of these storms are anticipated. While these storms likely will remain sub-severe without any surface heating and thus minimal instability, the intensification should assist in the remnant outflow boundary/front moving offshore during the morning hours on Friday. This will have a stabilizing effect which results in a conditional severe threat on Day 2/Friday. Some guidance shows a strengthening surface low which results in substantial return flow across the eastern Carolinas, which will result in low 60s dewpoints and weak to moderate instability by later morning to early afternoon. However, if this stronger cyclogenesis does not occur (as forecast by several hi-res models this morning), the instability and severe weather threat will remain mostly offshore. No modifications were made to the marginal risk, but a 2% tornado probability was added for parts of eastern North Carolina. If stronger southerly/southeasterly flow and low 60s dewpoints can develop ahead of a strengthening surface low, a tornado is possible. Overall, a few strong to isolated severe storms are possible with a primary threat of large hail. However, this threat is conditional on destabilization, which remains questionable at this time. ...Southeast Georgia and northern Florida... Strong heating is anticipated along a frontal zone from southeast Georgia to northern Florida Friday afternoon. Forecast soundings show 500 to 750 J/kg MLCAPE with a well-mixed boundary layer extending to near 3km. Overall lack of moisture should limit instability and storm intensity, but 35 to 45 knots of shear will support some storm organization. Therefore, the strongest storms could exhibit some updraft rotation with an increased large hail/severe wind threat, but overall expect the threat to remain isolated. ..Bentley.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...Eastern Carolinas into Southeast Virginia... A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms is approaching the southern Appalachians by mid-day Thursday along a low-mid-level front which will continue east through the day. Some intensification of these thunderstorms (or additional convective development along the mountains) is expected today which will impact the Friday/Day 2 forecast. As the remnants of this front/mountain convection interact with better low-level moisture across eastern North Carolina later tonight, some intensification of these storms are anticipated. While these storms likely will remain sub-severe without any surface heating and thus minimal instability, the intensification should assist in the remnant outflow boundary/front moving offshore during the morning hours on Friday. This will have a stabilizing effect which results in a conditional severe threat on Day 2/Friday. Some guidance shows a strengthening surface low which results in substantial return flow across the eastern Carolinas, which will result in low 60s dewpoints and weak to moderate instability by later morning to early afternoon. However, if this stronger cyclogenesis does not occur (as forecast by several hi-res models this morning), the instability and severe weather threat will remain mostly offshore. No modifications were made to the marginal risk, but a 2% tornado probability was added for parts of eastern North Carolina. If stronger southerly/southeasterly flow and low 60s dewpoints can develop ahead of a strengthening surface low, a tornado is possible. Overall, a few strong to isolated severe storms are possible with a primary threat of large hail. However, this threat is conditional on destabilization, which remains questionable at this time. ...Southeast Georgia and northern Florida... Strong heating is anticipated along a frontal zone from southeast Georgia to northern Florida Friday afternoon. Forecast soundings show 500 to 750 J/kg MLCAPE with a well-mixed boundary layer extending to near 3km. Overall lack of moisture should limit instability and storm intensity, but 35 to 45 knots of shear will support some storm organization. Therefore, the strongest storms could exhibit some updraft rotation with an increased large hail/severe wind threat, but overall expect the threat to remain isolated. ..Bentley.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...Eastern Carolinas into Southeast Virginia... A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms is approaching the southern Appalachians by mid-day Thursday along a low-mid-level front which will continue east through the day. Some intensification of these thunderstorms (or additional convective development along the mountains) is expected today which will impact the Friday/Day 2 forecast. As the remnants of this front/mountain convection interact with better low-level moisture across eastern North Carolina later tonight, some intensification of these storms are anticipated. While these storms likely will remain sub-severe without any surface heating and thus minimal instability, the intensification should assist in the remnant outflow boundary/front moving offshore during the morning hours on Friday. This will have a stabilizing effect which results in a conditional severe threat on Day 2/Friday. Some guidance shows a strengthening surface low which results in substantial return flow across the eastern Carolinas, which will result in low 60s dewpoints and weak to moderate instability by later morning to early afternoon. However, if this stronger cyclogenesis does not occur (as forecast by several hi-res models this morning), the instability and severe weather threat will remain mostly offshore. No modifications were made to the marginal risk, but a 2% tornado probability was added for parts of eastern North Carolina. If stronger southerly/southeasterly flow and low 60s dewpoints can develop ahead of a strengthening surface low, a tornado is possible. Overall, a few strong to isolated severe storms are possible with a primary threat of large hail. However, this threat is conditional on destabilization, which remains questionable at this time. ...Southeast Georgia and northern Florida... Strong heating is anticipated along a frontal zone from southeast Georgia to northern Florida Friday afternoon. Forecast soundings show 500 to 750 J/kg MLCAPE with a well-mixed boundary layer extending to near 3km. Overall lack of moisture should limit instability and storm intensity, but 35 to 45 knots of shear will support some storm organization. Therefore, the strongest storms could exhibit some updraft rotation with an increased large hail/severe wind threat, but overall expect the threat to remain isolated. ..Bentley.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...Eastern Carolinas into Southeast Virginia... A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms is approaching the southern Appalachians by mid-day Thursday along a low-mid-level front which will continue east through the day. Some intensification of these thunderstorms (or additional convective development along the mountains) is expected today which will impact the Friday/Day 2 forecast. As the remnants of this front/mountain convection interact with better low-level moisture across eastern North Carolina later tonight, some intensification of these storms are anticipated. While these storms likely will remain sub-severe without any surface heating and thus minimal instability, the intensification should assist in the remnant outflow boundary/front moving offshore during the morning hours on Friday. This will have a stabilizing effect which results in a conditional severe threat on Day 2/Friday. Some guidance shows a strengthening surface low which results in substantial return flow across the eastern Carolinas, which will result in low 60s dewpoints and weak to moderate instability by later morning to early afternoon. However, if this stronger cyclogenesis does not occur (as forecast by several hi-res models this morning), the instability and severe weather threat will remain mostly offshore. No modifications were made to the marginal risk, but a 2% tornado probability was added for parts of eastern North Carolina. If stronger southerly/southeasterly flow and low 60s dewpoints can develop ahead of a strengthening surface low, a tornado is possible. Overall, a few strong to isolated severe storms are possible with a primary threat of large hail. However, this threat is conditional on destabilization, which remains questionable at this time. ...Southeast Georgia and northern Florida... Strong heating is anticipated along a frontal zone from southeast Georgia to northern Florida Friday afternoon. Forecast soundings show 500 to 750 J/kg MLCAPE with a well-mixed boundary layer extending to near 3km. Overall lack of moisture should limit instability and storm intensity, but 35 to 45 knots of shear will support some storm organization. Therefore, the strongest storms could exhibit some updraft rotation with an increased large hail/severe wind threat, but overall expect the threat to remain isolated. ..Bentley.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...Eastern Carolinas into Southeast Virginia... A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms is approaching the southern Appalachians by mid-day Thursday along a low-mid-level front which will continue east through the day. Some intensification of these thunderstorms (or additional convective development along the mountains) is expected today which will impact the Friday/Day 2 forecast. As the remnants of this front/mountain convection interact with better low-level moisture across eastern North Carolina later tonight, some intensification of these storms are anticipated. While these storms likely will remain sub-severe without any surface heating and thus minimal instability, the intensification should assist in the remnant outflow boundary/front moving offshore during the morning hours on Friday. This will have a stabilizing effect which results in a conditional severe threat on Day 2/Friday. Some guidance shows a strengthening surface low which results in substantial return flow across the eastern Carolinas, which will result in low 60s dewpoints and weak to moderate instability by later morning to early afternoon. However, if this stronger cyclogenesis does not occur (as forecast by several hi-res models this morning), the instability and severe weather threat will remain mostly offshore. No modifications were made to the marginal risk, but a 2% tornado probability was added for parts of eastern North Carolina. If stronger southerly/southeasterly flow and low 60s dewpoints can develop ahead of a strengthening surface low, a tornado is possible. Overall, a few strong to isolated severe storms are possible with a primary threat of large hail. However, this threat is conditional on destabilization, which remains questionable at this time. ...Southeast Georgia and northern Florida... Strong heating is anticipated along a frontal zone from southeast Georgia to northern Florida Friday afternoon. Forecast soundings show 500 to 750 J/kg MLCAPE with a well-mixed boundary layer extending to near 3km. Overall lack of moisture should limit instability and storm intensity, but 35 to 45 knots of shear will support some storm organization. Therefore, the strongest storms could exhibit some updraft rotation with an increased large hail/severe wind threat, but overall expect the threat to remain isolated. ..Bentley.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...Eastern Carolinas into Southeast Virginia... A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms is approaching the southern Appalachians by mid-day Thursday along a low-mid-level front which will continue east through the day. Some intensification of these thunderstorms (or additional convective development along the mountains) is expected today which will impact the Friday/Day 2 forecast. As the remnants of this front/mountain convection interact with better low-level moisture across eastern North Carolina later tonight, some intensification of these storms are anticipated. While these storms likely will remain sub-severe without any surface heating and thus minimal instability, the intensification should assist in the remnant outflow boundary/front moving offshore during the morning hours on Friday. This will have a stabilizing effect which results in a conditional severe threat on Day 2/Friday. Some guidance shows a strengthening surface low which results in substantial return flow across the eastern Carolinas, which will result in low 60s dewpoints and weak to moderate instability by later morning to early afternoon. However, if this stronger cyclogenesis does not occur (as forecast by several hi-res models this morning), the instability and severe weather threat will remain mostly offshore. No modifications were made to the marginal risk, but a 2% tornado probability was added for parts of eastern North Carolina. If stronger southerly/southeasterly flow and low 60s dewpoints can develop ahead of a strengthening surface low, a tornado is possible. Overall, a few strong to isolated severe storms are possible with a primary threat of large hail. However, this threat is conditional on destabilization, which remains questionable at this time. ...Southeast Georgia and northern Florida... Strong heating is anticipated along a frontal zone from southeast Georgia to northern Florida Friday afternoon. Forecast soundings show 500 to 750 J/kg MLCAPE with a well-mixed boundary layer extending to near 3km. Overall lack of moisture should limit instability and storm intensity, but 35 to 45 knots of shear will support some storm organization. Therefore, the strongest storms could exhibit some updraft rotation with an increased large hail/severe wind threat, but overall expect the threat to remain isolated. ..Bentley.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...Eastern Carolinas into Southeast Virginia... A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms is approaching the southern Appalachians by mid-day Thursday along a low-mid-level front which will continue east through the day. Some intensification of these thunderstorms (or additional convective development along the mountains) is expected today which will impact the Friday/Day 2 forecast. As the remnants of this front/mountain convection interact with better low-level moisture across eastern North Carolina later tonight, some intensification of these storms are anticipated. While these storms likely will remain sub-severe without any surface heating and thus minimal instability, the intensification should assist in the remnant outflow boundary/front moving offshore during the morning hours on Friday. This will have a stabilizing effect which results in a conditional severe threat on Day 2/Friday. Some guidance shows a strengthening surface low which results in substantial return flow across the eastern Carolinas, which will result in low 60s dewpoints and weak to moderate instability by later morning to early afternoon. However, if this stronger cyclogenesis does not occur (as forecast by several hi-res models this morning), the instability and severe weather threat will remain mostly offshore. No modifications were made to the marginal risk, but a 2% tornado probability was added for parts of eastern North Carolina. If stronger southerly/southeasterly flow and low 60s dewpoints can develop ahead of a strengthening surface low, a tornado is possible. Overall, a few strong to isolated severe storms are possible with a primary threat of large hail. However, this threat is conditional on destabilization, which remains questionable at this time. ...Southeast Georgia and northern Florida... Strong heating is anticipated along a frontal zone from southeast Georgia to northern Florida Friday afternoon. Forecast soundings show 500 to 750 J/kg MLCAPE with a well-mixed boundary layer extending to near 3km. Overall lack of moisture should limit instability and storm intensity, but 35 to 45 knots of shear will support some storm organization. Therefore, the strongest storms could exhibit some updraft rotation with an increased large hail/severe wind threat, but overall expect the threat to remain isolated. ..Bentley.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...Eastern Carolinas into Southeast Virginia... A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms is approaching the southern Appalachians by mid-day Thursday along a low-mid-level front which will continue east through the day. Some intensification of these thunderstorms (or additional convective development along the mountains) is expected today which will impact the Friday/Day 2 forecast. As the remnants of this front/mountain convection interact with better low-level moisture across eastern North Carolina later tonight, some intensification of these storms are anticipated. While these storms likely will remain sub-severe without any surface heating and thus minimal instability, the intensification should assist in the remnant outflow boundary/front moving offshore during the morning hours on Friday. This will have a stabilizing effect which results in a conditional severe threat on Day 2/Friday. Some guidance shows a strengthening surface low which results in substantial return flow across the eastern Carolinas, which will result in low 60s dewpoints and weak to moderate instability by later morning to early afternoon. However, if this stronger cyclogenesis does not occur (as forecast by several hi-res models this morning), the instability and severe weather threat will remain mostly offshore. No modifications were made to the marginal risk, but a 2% tornado probability was added for parts of eastern North Carolina. If stronger southerly/southeasterly flow and low 60s dewpoints can develop ahead of a strengthening surface low, a tornado is possible. Overall, a few strong to isolated severe storms are possible with a primary threat of large hail. However, this threat is conditional on destabilization, which remains questionable at this time. ...Southeast Georgia and northern Florida... Strong heating is anticipated along a frontal zone from southeast Georgia to northern Florida Friday afternoon. Forecast soundings show 500 to 750 J/kg MLCAPE with a well-mixed boundary layer extending to near 3km. Overall lack of moisture should limit instability and storm intensity, but 35 to 45 knots of shear will support some storm organization. Therefore, the strongest storms could exhibit some updraft rotation with an increased large hail/severe wind threat, but overall expect the threat to remain isolated. ..Bentley.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...Eastern Carolinas into Southeast Virginia... A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms is approaching the southern Appalachians by mid-day Thursday along a low-mid-level front which will continue east through the day. Some intensification of these thunderstorms (or additional convective development along the mountains) is expected today which will impact the Friday/Day 2 forecast. As the remnants of this front/mountain convection interact with better low-level moisture across eastern North Carolina later tonight, some intensification of these storms are anticipated. While these storms likely will remain sub-severe without any surface heating and thus minimal instability, the intensification should assist in the remnant outflow boundary/front moving offshore during the morning hours on Friday. This will have a stabilizing effect which results in a conditional severe threat on Day 2/Friday. Some guidance shows a strengthening surface low which results in substantial return flow across the eastern Carolinas, which will result in low 60s dewpoints and weak to moderate instability by later morning to early afternoon. However, if this stronger cyclogenesis does not occur (as forecast by several hi-res models this morning), the instability and severe weather threat will remain mostly offshore. No modifications were made to the marginal risk, but a 2% tornado probability was added for parts of eastern North Carolina. If stronger southerly/southeasterly flow and low 60s dewpoints can develop ahead of a strengthening surface low, a tornado is possible. Overall, a few strong to isolated severe storms are possible with a primary threat of large hail. However, this threat is conditional on destabilization, which remains questionable at this time. ...Southeast Georgia and northern Florida... Strong heating is anticipated along a frontal zone from southeast Georgia to northern Florida Friday afternoon. Forecast soundings show 500 to 750 J/kg MLCAPE with a well-mixed boundary layer extending to near 3km. Overall lack of moisture should limit instability and storm intensity, but 35 to 45 knots of shear will support some storm organization. Therefore, the strongest storms could exhibit some updraft rotation with an increased large hail/severe wind threat, but overall expect the threat to remain isolated. ..Bentley.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...Eastern Carolinas into Southeast Virginia... A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms is approaching the southern Appalachians by mid-day Thursday along a low-mid-level front which will continue east through the day. Some intensification of these thunderstorms (or additional convective development along the mountains) is expected today which will impact the Friday/Day 2 forecast. As the remnants of this front/mountain convection interact with better low-level moisture across eastern North Carolina later tonight, some intensification of these storms are anticipated. While these storms likely will remain sub-severe without any surface heating and thus minimal instability, the intensification should assist in the remnant outflow boundary/front moving offshore during the morning hours on Friday. This will have a stabilizing effect which results in a conditional severe threat on Day 2/Friday. Some guidance shows a strengthening surface low which results in substantial return flow across the eastern Carolinas, which will result in low 60s dewpoints and weak to moderate instability by later morning to early afternoon. However, if this stronger cyclogenesis does not occur (as forecast by several hi-res models this morning), the instability and severe weather threat will remain mostly offshore. No modifications were made to the marginal risk, but a 2% tornado probability was added for parts of eastern North Carolina. If stronger southerly/southeasterly flow and low 60s dewpoints can develop ahead of a strengthening surface low, a tornado is possible. Overall, a few strong to isolated severe storms are possible with a primary threat of large hail. However, this threat is conditional on destabilization, which remains questionable at this time. ...Southeast Georgia and northern Florida... Strong heating is anticipated along a frontal zone from southeast Georgia to northern Florida Friday afternoon. Forecast soundings show 500 to 750 J/kg MLCAPE with a well-mixed boundary layer extending to near 3km. Overall lack of moisture should limit instability and storm intensity, but 35 to 45 knots of shear will support some storm organization. Therefore, the strongest storms could exhibit some updraft rotation with an increased large hail/severe wind threat, but overall expect the threat to remain isolated. ..Bentley.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...Morning Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor modifications. The Elevated area was expanded across parts of central SD where post-frontal gusty winds of 15-20 mph and low RH are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Areas across western SD have received around 0.25-0.5 inches of rainfall over the last 24 hours, and have been trimmed from the risk area. Otherwise the outlook was unchanged, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS as upper ridging persists across the Interior West, supporting surface high pressure and deep-layer northwesterly flow to overspread the central Plains today. Given the presence of a dry boundary layer, efficient downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft is expected by afternoon peak heating given boundary-layer mixing. Widespread 15-20 mph northwesterly surface winds (perhaps reaching 25 mph locally) will coincide with 20 percent RH for several hours across parts of the central Plains, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights given at least modestly dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...Morning Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor modifications. The Elevated area was expanded across parts of central SD where post-frontal gusty winds of 15-20 mph and low RH are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Areas across western SD have received around 0.25-0.5 inches of rainfall over the last 24 hours, and have been trimmed from the risk area. Otherwise the outlook was unchanged, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS as upper ridging persists across the Interior West, supporting surface high pressure and deep-layer northwesterly flow to overspread the central Plains today. Given the presence of a dry boundary layer, efficient downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft is expected by afternoon peak heating given boundary-layer mixing. Widespread 15-20 mph northwesterly surface winds (perhaps reaching 25 mph locally) will coincide with 20 percent RH for several hours across parts of the central Plains, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights given at least modestly dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...Morning Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor modifications. The Elevated area was expanded across parts of central SD where post-frontal gusty winds of 15-20 mph and low RH are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Areas across western SD have received around 0.25-0.5 inches of rainfall over the last 24 hours, and have been trimmed from the risk area. Otherwise the outlook was unchanged, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS as upper ridging persists across the Interior West, supporting surface high pressure and deep-layer northwesterly flow to overspread the central Plains today. Given the presence of a dry boundary layer, efficient downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft is expected by afternoon peak heating given boundary-layer mixing. Widespread 15-20 mph northwesterly surface winds (perhaps reaching 25 mph locally) will coincide with 20 percent RH for several hours across parts of the central Plains, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights given at least modestly dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...Morning Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor modifications. The Elevated area was expanded across parts of central SD where post-frontal gusty winds of 15-20 mph and low RH are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Areas across western SD have received around 0.25-0.5 inches of rainfall over the last 24 hours, and have been trimmed from the risk area. Otherwise the outlook was unchanged, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS as upper ridging persists across the Interior West, supporting surface high pressure and deep-layer northwesterly flow to overspread the central Plains today. Given the presence of a dry boundary layer, efficient downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft is expected by afternoon peak heating given boundary-layer mixing. Widespread 15-20 mph northwesterly surface winds (perhaps reaching 25 mph locally) will coincide with 20 percent RH for several hours across parts of the central Plains, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights given at least modestly dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more