Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... Ahead of the cold front moving across the OH/MS Valleys, strong heating has promoted gradual destabilization and multiple corridors of storm formation this afternoon. 70s and 80s F surface temperatures indicate the air mass is well-mixed with dewpoints generally in the 40s F. The relatively dry boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer of stronger tropospheric winds, and a threat for scattered damaging winds. Some clustering and a stronger cold pool currently becoming established may focus this threat across the lower OH Valley into parts of TN/KY. Otherwise, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. Across parts of the mid to lower MS valley, predominately cellular storms are expected late this afternoon continuing through the evening. Hail appears likely with these storms given the very favorable lapse rates aloft (8-9 C/km) and elongated hodographs favoring supercells. Some significant hail near 2 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out with the more robust rotating storms. Upscale growth overnight may foster a wind threat as one or more clusters/line segments spread east across AL and GA with damaging gusts. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... Ahead of the cold front moving across the OH/MS Valleys, strong heating has promoted gradual destabilization and multiple corridors of storm formation this afternoon. 70s and 80s F surface temperatures indicate the air mass is well-mixed with dewpoints generally in the 40s F. The relatively dry boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer of stronger tropospheric winds, and a threat for scattered damaging winds. Some clustering and a stronger cold pool currently becoming established may focus this threat across the lower OH Valley into parts of TN/KY. Otherwise, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. Across parts of the mid to lower MS valley, predominately cellular storms are expected late this afternoon continuing through the evening. Hail appears likely with these storms given the very favorable lapse rates aloft (8-9 C/km) and elongated hodographs favoring supercells. Some significant hail near 2 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out with the more robust rotating storms. Upscale growth overnight may foster a wind threat as one or more clusters/line segments spread east across AL and GA with damaging gusts. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... Ahead of the cold front moving across the OH/MS Valleys, strong heating has promoted gradual destabilization and multiple corridors of storm formation this afternoon. 70s and 80s F surface temperatures indicate the air mass is well-mixed with dewpoints generally in the 40s F. The relatively dry boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer of stronger tropospheric winds, and a threat for scattered damaging winds. Some clustering and a stronger cold pool currently becoming established may focus this threat across the lower OH Valley into parts of TN/KY. Otherwise, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. Across parts of the mid to lower MS valley, predominately cellular storms are expected late this afternoon continuing through the evening. Hail appears likely with these storms given the very favorable lapse rates aloft (8-9 C/km) and elongated hodographs favoring supercells. Some significant hail near 2 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out with the more robust rotating storms. Upscale growth overnight may foster a wind threat as one or more clusters/line segments spread east across AL and GA with damaging gusts. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... Ahead of the cold front moving across the OH/MS Valleys, strong heating has promoted gradual destabilization and multiple corridors of storm formation this afternoon. 70s and 80s F surface temperatures indicate the air mass is well-mixed with dewpoints generally in the 40s F. The relatively dry boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer of stronger tropospheric winds, and a threat for scattered damaging winds. Some clustering and a stronger cold pool currently becoming established may focus this threat across the lower OH Valley into parts of TN/KY. Otherwise, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. Across parts of the mid to lower MS valley, predominately cellular storms are expected late this afternoon continuing through the evening. Hail appears likely with these storms given the very favorable lapse rates aloft (8-9 C/km) and elongated hodographs favoring supercells. Some significant hail near 2 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out with the more robust rotating storms. Upscale growth overnight may foster a wind threat as one or more clusters/line segments spread east across AL and GA with damaging gusts. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... Ahead of the cold front moving across the OH/MS Valleys, strong heating has promoted gradual destabilization and multiple corridors of storm formation this afternoon. 70s and 80s F surface temperatures indicate the air mass is well-mixed with dewpoints generally in the 40s F. The relatively dry boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer of stronger tropospheric winds, and a threat for scattered damaging winds. Some clustering and a stronger cold pool currently becoming established may focus this threat across the lower OH Valley into parts of TN/KY. Otherwise, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. Across parts of the mid to lower MS valley, predominately cellular storms are expected late this afternoon continuing through the evening. Hail appears likely with these storms given the very favorable lapse rates aloft (8-9 C/km) and elongated hodographs favoring supercells. Some significant hail near 2 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out with the more robust rotating storms. Upscale growth overnight may foster a wind threat as one or more clusters/line segments spread east across AL and GA with damaging gusts. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... Ahead of the cold front moving across the OH/MS Valleys, strong heating has promoted gradual destabilization and multiple corridors of storm formation this afternoon. 70s and 80s F surface temperatures indicate the air mass is well-mixed with dewpoints generally in the 40s F. The relatively dry boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer of stronger tropospheric winds, and a threat for scattered damaging winds. Some clustering and a stronger cold pool currently becoming established may focus this threat across the lower OH Valley into parts of TN/KY. Otherwise, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. Across parts of the mid to lower MS valley, predominately cellular storms are expected late this afternoon continuing through the evening. Hail appears likely with these storms given the very favorable lapse rates aloft (8-9 C/km) and elongated hodographs favoring supercells. Some significant hail near 2 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out with the more robust rotating storms. Upscale growth overnight may foster a wind threat as one or more clusters/line segments spread east across AL and GA with damaging gusts. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... Ahead of the cold front moving across the OH/MS Valleys, strong heating has promoted gradual destabilization and multiple corridors of storm formation this afternoon. 70s and 80s F surface temperatures indicate the air mass is well-mixed with dewpoints generally in the 40s F. The relatively dry boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer of stronger tropospheric winds, and a threat for scattered damaging winds. Some clustering and a stronger cold pool currently becoming established may focus this threat across the lower OH Valley into parts of TN/KY. Otherwise, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. Across parts of the mid to lower MS valley, predominately cellular storms are expected late this afternoon continuing through the evening. Hail appears likely with these storms given the very favorable lapse rates aloft (8-9 C/km) and elongated hodographs favoring supercells. Some significant hail near 2 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out with the more robust rotating storms. Upscale growth overnight may foster a wind threat as one or more clusters/line segments spread east across AL and GA with damaging gusts. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... Ahead of the cold front moving across the OH/MS Valleys, strong heating has promoted gradual destabilization and multiple corridors of storm formation this afternoon. 70s and 80s F surface temperatures indicate the air mass is well-mixed with dewpoints generally in the 40s F. The relatively dry boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer of stronger tropospheric winds, and a threat for scattered damaging winds. Some clustering and a stronger cold pool currently becoming established may focus this threat across the lower OH Valley into parts of TN/KY. Otherwise, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. Across parts of the mid to lower MS valley, predominately cellular storms are expected late this afternoon continuing through the evening. Hail appears likely with these storms given the very favorable lapse rates aloft (8-9 C/km) and elongated hodographs favoring supercells. Some significant hail near 2 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out with the more robust rotating storms. Upscale growth overnight may foster a wind threat as one or more clusters/line segments spread east across AL and GA with damaging gusts. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... Ahead of the cold front moving across the OH/MS Valleys, strong heating has promoted gradual destabilization and multiple corridors of storm formation this afternoon. 70s and 80s F surface temperatures indicate the air mass is well-mixed with dewpoints generally in the 40s F. The relatively dry boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer of stronger tropospheric winds, and a threat for scattered damaging winds. Some clustering and a stronger cold pool currently becoming established may focus this threat across the lower OH Valley into parts of TN/KY. Otherwise, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. Across parts of the mid to lower MS valley, predominately cellular storms are expected late this afternoon continuing through the evening. Hail appears likely with these storms given the very favorable lapse rates aloft (8-9 C/km) and elongated hodographs favoring supercells. Some significant hail near 2 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out with the more robust rotating storms. Upscale growth overnight may foster a wind threat as one or more clusters/line segments spread east across AL and GA with damaging gusts. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... Ahead of the cold front moving across the OH/MS Valleys, strong heating has promoted gradual destabilization and multiple corridors of storm formation this afternoon. 70s and 80s F surface temperatures indicate the air mass is well-mixed with dewpoints generally in the 40s F. The relatively dry boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer of stronger tropospheric winds, and a threat for scattered damaging winds. Some clustering and a stronger cold pool currently becoming established may focus this threat across the lower OH Valley into parts of TN/KY. Otherwise, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. Across parts of the mid to lower MS valley, predominately cellular storms are expected late this afternoon continuing through the evening. Hail appears likely with these storms given the very favorable lapse rates aloft (8-9 C/km) and elongated hodographs favoring supercells. Some significant hail near 2 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out with the more robust rotating storms. Upscale growth overnight may foster a wind threat as one or more clusters/line segments spread east across AL and GA with damaging gusts. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... Ahead of the cold front moving across the OH/MS Valleys, strong heating has promoted gradual destabilization and multiple corridors of storm formation this afternoon. 70s and 80s F surface temperatures indicate the air mass is well-mixed with dewpoints generally in the 40s F. The relatively dry boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer of stronger tropospheric winds, and a threat for scattered damaging winds. Some clustering and a stronger cold pool currently becoming established may focus this threat across the lower OH Valley into parts of TN/KY. Otherwise, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. Across parts of the mid to lower MS valley, predominately cellular storms are expected late this afternoon continuing through the evening. Hail appears likely with these storms given the very favorable lapse rates aloft (8-9 C/km) and elongated hodographs favoring supercells. Some significant hail near 2 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out with the more robust rotating storms. Upscale growth overnight may foster a wind threat as one or more clusters/line segments spread east across AL and GA with damaging gusts. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... Ahead of the cold front moving across the OH/MS Valleys, strong heating has promoted gradual destabilization and multiple corridors of storm formation this afternoon. 70s and 80s F surface temperatures indicate the air mass is well-mixed with dewpoints generally in the 40s F. The relatively dry boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer of stronger tropospheric winds, and a threat for scattered damaging winds. Some clustering and a stronger cold pool currently becoming established may focus this threat across the lower OH Valley into parts of TN/KY. Otherwise, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. Across parts of the mid to lower MS valley, predominately cellular storms are expected late this afternoon continuing through the evening. Hail appears likely with these storms given the very favorable lapse rates aloft (8-9 C/km) and elongated hodographs favoring supercells. Some significant hail near 2 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out with the more robust rotating storms. Upscale growth overnight may foster a wind threat as one or more clusters/line segments spread east across AL and GA with damaging gusts. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... Ahead of the cold front moving across the OH/MS Valleys, strong heating has promoted gradual destabilization and multiple corridors of storm formation this afternoon. 70s and 80s F surface temperatures indicate the air mass is well-mixed with dewpoints generally in the 40s F. The relatively dry boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer of stronger tropospheric winds, and a threat for scattered damaging winds. Some clustering and a stronger cold pool currently becoming established may focus this threat across the lower OH Valley into parts of TN/KY. Otherwise, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. Across parts of the mid to lower MS valley, predominately cellular storms are expected late this afternoon continuing through the evening. Hail appears likely with these storms given the very favorable lapse rates aloft (8-9 C/km) and elongated hodographs favoring supercells. Some significant hail near 2 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out with the more robust rotating storms. Upscale growth overnight may foster a wind threat as one or more clusters/line segments spread east across AL and GA with damaging gusts. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... Ahead of the cold front moving across the OH/MS Valleys, strong heating has promoted gradual destabilization and multiple corridors of storm formation this afternoon. 70s and 80s F surface temperatures indicate the air mass is well-mixed with dewpoints generally in the 40s F. The relatively dry boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer of stronger tropospheric winds, and a threat for scattered damaging winds. Some clustering and a stronger cold pool currently becoming established may focus this threat across the lower OH Valley into parts of TN/KY. Otherwise, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. Across parts of the mid to lower MS valley, predominately cellular storms are expected late this afternoon continuing through the evening. Hail appears likely with these storms given the very favorable lapse rates aloft (8-9 C/km) and elongated hodographs favoring supercells. Some significant hail near 2 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out with the more robust rotating storms. Upscale growth overnight may foster a wind threat as one or more clusters/line segments spread east across AL and GA with damaging gusts. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... Ahead of the cold front moving across the OH/MS Valleys, strong heating has promoted gradual destabilization and multiple corridors of storm formation this afternoon. 70s and 80s F surface temperatures indicate the air mass is well-mixed with dewpoints generally in the 40s F. The relatively dry boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer of stronger tropospheric winds, and a threat for scattered damaging winds. Some clustering and a stronger cold pool currently becoming established may focus this threat across the lower OH Valley into parts of TN/KY. Otherwise, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. Across parts of the mid to lower MS valley, predominately cellular storms are expected late this afternoon continuing through the evening. Hail appears likely with these storms given the very favorable lapse rates aloft (8-9 C/km) and elongated hodographs favoring supercells. Some significant hail near 2 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out with the more robust rotating storms. Upscale growth overnight may foster a wind threat as one or more clusters/line segments spread east across AL and GA with damaging gusts. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Primary adjustment to forecast across the Northern Plains was a southward extension of Elevated highlights into portions of Nebraska. Increasing surface winds are expected from the south in response to Northern Rockies lee troughing development. These winds will overlap sufficiently dry fuels within a well mixed boundary layer, where afternoon relative humidity is expected to drop into 15-20 percent range. This will promote an Elevated fire weather threat Friday for portions of the Dakotas and Nebraska. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track across central Florida for Elevated fire weather conditions. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1219 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A near-stationary mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging continues to build over the central U.S. and another mid-level trough traverses the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Friday). Ahead of the approaching Northwest mid-level trough, surface lee troughing will take place across the central and northern High Plains, supporting strong southerly flow in the process. A dry airmass will be transported northward across the northern High Plains, with 15-25 mph sustained southerly winds overlapping with 15-25 percent RH tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced given dry/windy conditions overlapping at least marginally to modestly dry fuels. Meanwhile, a surface cold front is expected to sweep across the Florida Peninsula tomorrow, with dry/breezy conditions likely in the post-frontal regime. Winds may sustain over 15 mph for at least a few hours during the afternoon, as RH dips as low as 20-30 percent in some areas. Rainfall accumulations have barely exceeded 0.25 inches over the past week for most parts of the central Florida Peninsula, and given the presence of dry fuels, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Primary adjustment to forecast across the Northern Plains was a southward extension of Elevated highlights into portions of Nebraska. Increasing surface winds are expected from the south in response to Northern Rockies lee troughing development. These winds will overlap sufficiently dry fuels within a well mixed boundary layer, where afternoon relative humidity is expected to drop into 15-20 percent range. This will promote an Elevated fire weather threat Friday for portions of the Dakotas and Nebraska. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track across central Florida for Elevated fire weather conditions. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1219 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A near-stationary mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging continues to build over the central U.S. and another mid-level trough traverses the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Friday). Ahead of the approaching Northwest mid-level trough, surface lee troughing will take place across the central and northern High Plains, supporting strong southerly flow in the process. A dry airmass will be transported northward across the northern High Plains, with 15-25 mph sustained southerly winds overlapping with 15-25 percent RH tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced given dry/windy conditions overlapping at least marginally to modestly dry fuels. Meanwhile, a surface cold front is expected to sweep across the Florida Peninsula tomorrow, with dry/breezy conditions likely in the post-frontal regime. Winds may sustain over 15 mph for at least a few hours during the afternoon, as RH dips as low as 20-30 percent in some areas. Rainfall accumulations have barely exceeded 0.25 inches over the past week for most parts of the central Florida Peninsula, and given the presence of dry fuels, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Primary adjustment to forecast across the Northern Plains was a southward extension of Elevated highlights into portions of Nebraska. Increasing surface winds are expected from the south in response to Northern Rockies lee troughing development. These winds will overlap sufficiently dry fuels within a well mixed boundary layer, where afternoon relative humidity is expected to drop into 15-20 percent range. This will promote an Elevated fire weather threat Friday for portions of the Dakotas and Nebraska. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track across central Florida for Elevated fire weather conditions. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1219 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A near-stationary mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging continues to build over the central U.S. and another mid-level trough traverses the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Friday). Ahead of the approaching Northwest mid-level trough, surface lee troughing will take place across the central and northern High Plains, supporting strong southerly flow in the process. A dry airmass will be transported northward across the northern High Plains, with 15-25 mph sustained southerly winds overlapping with 15-25 percent RH tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced given dry/windy conditions overlapping at least marginally to modestly dry fuels. Meanwhile, a surface cold front is expected to sweep across the Florida Peninsula tomorrow, with dry/breezy conditions likely in the post-frontal regime. Winds may sustain over 15 mph for at least a few hours during the afternoon, as RH dips as low as 20-30 percent in some areas. Rainfall accumulations have barely exceeded 0.25 inches over the past week for most parts of the central Florida Peninsula, and given the presence of dry fuels, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Primary adjustment to forecast across the Northern Plains was a southward extension of Elevated highlights into portions of Nebraska. Increasing surface winds are expected from the south in response to Northern Rockies lee troughing development. These winds will overlap sufficiently dry fuels within a well mixed boundary layer, where afternoon relative humidity is expected to drop into 15-20 percent range. This will promote an Elevated fire weather threat Friday for portions of the Dakotas and Nebraska. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track across central Florida for Elevated fire weather conditions. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1219 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A near-stationary mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging continues to build over the central U.S. and another mid-level trough traverses the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Friday). Ahead of the approaching Northwest mid-level trough, surface lee troughing will take place across the central and northern High Plains, supporting strong southerly flow in the process. A dry airmass will be transported northward across the northern High Plains, with 15-25 mph sustained southerly winds overlapping with 15-25 percent RH tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced given dry/windy conditions overlapping at least marginally to modestly dry fuels. Meanwhile, a surface cold front is expected to sweep across the Florida Peninsula tomorrow, with dry/breezy conditions likely in the post-frontal regime. Winds may sustain over 15 mph for at least a few hours during the afternoon, as RH dips as low as 20-30 percent in some areas. Rainfall accumulations have barely exceeded 0.25 inches over the past week for most parts of the central Florida Peninsula, and given the presence of dry fuels, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Primary adjustment to forecast across the Northern Plains was a southward extension of Elevated highlights into portions of Nebraska. Increasing surface winds are expected from the south in response to Northern Rockies lee troughing development. These winds will overlap sufficiently dry fuels within a well mixed boundary layer, where afternoon relative humidity is expected to drop into 15-20 percent range. This will promote an Elevated fire weather threat Friday for portions of the Dakotas and Nebraska. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track across central Florida for Elevated fire weather conditions. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1219 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A near-stationary mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging continues to build over the central U.S. and another mid-level trough traverses the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Friday). Ahead of the approaching Northwest mid-level trough, surface lee troughing will take place across the central and northern High Plains, supporting strong southerly flow in the process. A dry airmass will be transported northward across the northern High Plains, with 15-25 mph sustained southerly winds overlapping with 15-25 percent RH tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced given dry/windy conditions overlapping at least marginally to modestly dry fuels. Meanwhile, a surface cold front is expected to sweep across the Florida Peninsula tomorrow, with dry/breezy conditions likely in the post-frontal regime. Winds may sustain over 15 mph for at least a few hours during the afternoon, as RH dips as low as 20-30 percent in some areas. Rainfall accumulations have barely exceeded 0.25 inches over the past week for most parts of the central Florida Peninsula, and given the presence of dry fuels, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more