Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level trough traversing through the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains combined with a modest subtropical jet support, south of the trough should promote a broad area of stronger winds across the Desert Southwest portions of the Central and Southern High Plains over the weekend. Combined with a very dry, well mixed boundary layer, a Critical fire weather probability of 70 percent was introduced into portions New Mexico and into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles over the weekend (day 3/day 4). Lee cyclone development and eastward translation of the upper-level trough is expected to bring gusty winds behind a dry, post-frontal environment supporting a 40 percent probability of a Critical fire weather threat for portions of the Central Plains on day 5/Monday. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Gusty west-southwest surface winds aided by an increase in a broad but modest subtropical jet aloft combined with a very dry boundary layer is expected to result in Critical fire weather conditions across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles on day 3/Saturday. A southward shift and acceleration in mid-level flow along with leeward cyclone development in the southern High Plains, should support a broad area of increased surface winds amid dry fuels and very low relative humidity on day 4/Sunday. This threat will be concentrated across southern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level trough traversing through the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains combined with a modest subtropical jet support, south of the trough should promote a broad area of stronger winds across the Desert Southwest portions of the Central and Southern High Plains over the weekend. Combined with a very dry, well mixed boundary layer, a Critical fire weather probability of 70 percent was introduced into portions New Mexico and into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles over the weekend (day 3/day 4). Lee cyclone development and eastward translation of the upper-level trough is expected to bring gusty winds behind a dry, post-frontal environment supporting a 40 percent probability of a Critical fire weather threat for portions of the Central Plains on day 5/Monday. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Gusty west-southwest surface winds aided by an increase in a broad but modest subtropical jet aloft combined with a very dry boundary layer is expected to result in Critical fire weather conditions across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles on day 3/Saturday. A southward shift and acceleration in mid-level flow along with leeward cyclone development in the southern High Plains, should support a broad area of increased surface winds amid dry fuels and very low relative humidity on day 4/Sunday. This threat will be concentrated across southern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level trough traversing through the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains combined with a modest subtropical jet support, south of the trough should promote a broad area of stronger winds across the Desert Southwest portions of the Central and Southern High Plains over the weekend. Combined with a very dry, well mixed boundary layer, a Critical fire weather probability of 70 percent was introduced into portions New Mexico and into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles over the weekend (day 3/day 4). Lee cyclone development and eastward translation of the upper-level trough is expected to bring gusty winds behind a dry, post-frontal environment supporting a 40 percent probability of a Critical fire weather threat for portions of the Central Plains on day 5/Monday. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Gusty west-southwest surface winds aided by an increase in a broad but modest subtropical jet aloft combined with a very dry boundary layer is expected to result in Critical fire weather conditions across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles on day 3/Saturday. A southward shift and acceleration in mid-level flow along with leeward cyclone development in the southern High Plains, should support a broad area of increased surface winds amid dry fuels and very low relative humidity on day 4/Sunday. This threat will be concentrated across southern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level trough traversing through the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains combined with a modest subtropical jet support, south of the trough should promote a broad area of stronger winds across the Desert Southwest portions of the Central and Southern High Plains over the weekend. Combined with a very dry, well mixed boundary layer, a Critical fire weather probability of 70 percent was introduced into portions New Mexico and into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles over the weekend (day 3/day 4). Lee cyclone development and eastward translation of the upper-level trough is expected to bring gusty winds behind a dry, post-frontal environment supporting a 40 percent probability of a Critical fire weather threat for portions of the Central Plains on day 5/Monday. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Gusty west-southwest surface winds aided by an increase in a broad but modest subtropical jet aloft combined with a very dry boundary layer is expected to result in Critical fire weather conditions across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles on day 3/Saturday. A southward shift and acceleration in mid-level flow along with leeward cyclone development in the southern High Plains, should support a broad area of increased surface winds amid dry fuels and very low relative humidity on day 4/Sunday. This threat will be concentrated across southern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level trough traversing through the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains combined with a modest subtropical jet support, south of the trough should promote a broad area of stronger winds across the Desert Southwest portions of the Central and Southern High Plains over the weekend. Combined with a very dry, well mixed boundary layer, a Critical fire weather probability of 70 percent was introduced into portions New Mexico and into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles over the weekend (day 3/day 4). Lee cyclone development and eastward translation of the upper-level trough is expected to bring gusty winds behind a dry, post-frontal environment supporting a 40 percent probability of a Critical fire weather threat for portions of the Central Plains on day 5/Monday. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Gusty west-southwest surface winds aided by an increase in a broad but modest subtropical jet aloft combined with a very dry boundary layer is expected to result in Critical fire weather conditions across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles on day 3/Saturday. A southward shift and acceleration in mid-level flow along with leeward cyclone development in the southern High Plains, should support a broad area of increased surface winds amid dry fuels and very low relative humidity on day 4/Sunday. This threat will be concentrated across southern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level trough traversing through the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains combined with a modest subtropical jet support, south of the trough should promote a broad area of stronger winds across the Desert Southwest portions of the Central and Southern High Plains over the weekend. Combined with a very dry, well mixed boundary layer, a Critical fire weather probability of 70 percent was introduced into portions New Mexico and into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles over the weekend (day 3/day 4). Lee cyclone development and eastward translation of the upper-level trough is expected to bring gusty winds behind a dry, post-frontal environment supporting a 40 percent probability of a Critical fire weather threat for portions of the Central Plains on day 5/Monday. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Gusty west-southwest surface winds aided by an increase in a broad but modest subtropical jet aloft combined with a very dry boundary layer is expected to result in Critical fire weather conditions across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles on day 3/Saturday. A southward shift and acceleration in mid-level flow along with leeward cyclone development in the southern High Plains, should support a broad area of increased surface winds amid dry fuels and very low relative humidity on day 4/Sunday. This threat will be concentrated across southern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0137 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 137 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MARSH..04/10/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-011-013-015-035-045-047-055-057-059-063-067-077-083-085- 089-097-105-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-129-133-135-137-139-143- 147-149-151-157-159-169-171-187-195-199-207-211-213-217-219-221- 223-227-231-233-237-241-247-255-257-281-285-291-295-297-311-313- 102240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BANKS BARROW BARTOW BUTTS CARROLL CATOOSA CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE CLARKE CLAYTON COBB COWETA DADE DAWSON DEKALB DOUGLAS ELBERT FANNIN FAYETTE FLOYD FORSYTH FRANKLIN FULTON GILMER GORDON GREENE GWINNETT HABERSHAM HALL HARALSON HART HEARD HENRY JACKSON JASPER JONES LAMAR LUMPKIN MADISON MERIWETHER MONROE MORGAN MURRAY NEWTON OCONEE OGLETHORPE PAULDING PICKENS PIKE POLK Read more

WW 0136 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 136 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MARSH..04/10/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 136 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC007-009-015-017-019-021-027-029-033-037-043-049-055-057-059- 063-065-071-073-075-077-079-083-089-093-095-103-105-107-111-115- 117-119-121-123-125-127-133-102240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIBB BLOUNT CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CHILTON CLAY CLEBURNE COLBERT COOSA CULLMAN DEKALB ETOWAH FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE HALE JACKSON JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MARION MARSHALL MORGAN PERRY PICKENS RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON ARC035-037-077-107-111-123-102240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0135 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 135 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MARSH..04/10/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LMK...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 135 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-055-093-102240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAIGHEAD GREENE MISSISSIPPI ILC003-059-069-087-127-151-153-165-181-199-102240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER GALLATIN HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WILLIAMSON INC051-129-147-163-173-102240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GIBSON POSEY SPENCER Read more

WW 0135 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 135 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GUYER..04/10/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LMK...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 135 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-055-093-102140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAIGHEAD GREENE MISSISSIPPI ILC003-059-069-087-127-151-153-165-181-199-102140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER GALLATIN HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WILLIAMSON KYC001-003-007-009-031-033-035-039-047-053-055-057-059-061-075- 083-085-087-099-101-105-107-139-141-143-145-149-157-169-171-177- 183-207-213-219-221-225-227-233-102140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0136 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0136 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0440 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0440 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Areas affected...far southeast Missouri into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 101755Z - 102030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon, with areas of damaging wind and sporadic hail expected. DISCUSSION...Strong heating continues ahead of a cold front and beneath very cold temperatures aloft with the shortwave trough. An expanding mass of convection is already developing ahead of the frontal surge over southeast MO, and this will develop rapidly southeastward into KY and TN. Very steep lapse rates and moderate deep-layer mean winds should support accelerating cold pools, while straight hodographs and cold temperatures aloft support hail production. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 04/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 35899043 36359040 37358963 38178912 38218849 38028762 37678624 37498586 37158558 36338578 35508630 35128709 35118828 35589010 35899043 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... Ahead of the cold front moving across the OH/MS Valleys, strong heating has promoted gradual destabilization and multiple corridors of storm formation this afternoon. 70s and 80s F surface temperatures indicate the air mass is well-mixed with dewpoints generally in the 40s F. The relatively dry boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer of stronger tropospheric winds, and a threat for scattered damaging winds. Some clustering and a stronger cold pool currently becoming established may focus this threat across the lower OH Valley into parts of TN/KY. Otherwise, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. Across parts of the mid to lower MS valley, predominately cellular storms are expected late this afternoon continuing through the evening. Hail appears likely with these storms given the very favorable lapse rates aloft (8-9 C/km) and elongated hodographs favoring supercells. Some significant hail near 2 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out with the more robust rotating storms. Upscale growth overnight may foster a wind threat as one or more clusters/line segments spread east across AL and GA with damaging gusts. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... Ahead of the cold front moving across the OH/MS Valleys, strong heating has promoted gradual destabilization and multiple corridors of storm formation this afternoon. 70s and 80s F surface temperatures indicate the air mass is well-mixed with dewpoints generally in the 40s F. The relatively dry boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer of stronger tropospheric winds, and a threat for scattered damaging winds. Some clustering and a stronger cold pool currently becoming established may focus this threat across the lower OH Valley into parts of TN/KY. Otherwise, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. Across parts of the mid to lower MS valley, predominately cellular storms are expected late this afternoon continuing through the evening. Hail appears likely with these storms given the very favorable lapse rates aloft (8-9 C/km) and elongated hodographs favoring supercells. Some significant hail near 2 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out with the more robust rotating storms. Upscale growth overnight may foster a wind threat as one or more clusters/line segments spread east across AL and GA with damaging gusts. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... Ahead of the cold front moving across the OH/MS Valleys, strong heating has promoted gradual destabilization and multiple corridors of storm formation this afternoon. 70s and 80s F surface temperatures indicate the air mass is well-mixed with dewpoints generally in the 40s F. The relatively dry boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer of stronger tropospheric winds, and a threat for scattered damaging winds. Some clustering and a stronger cold pool currently becoming established may focus this threat across the lower OH Valley into parts of TN/KY. Otherwise, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. Across parts of the mid to lower MS valley, predominately cellular storms are expected late this afternoon continuing through the evening. Hail appears likely with these storms given the very favorable lapse rates aloft (8-9 C/km) and elongated hodographs favoring supercells. Some significant hail near 2 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out with the more robust rotating storms. Upscale growth overnight may foster a wind threat as one or more clusters/line segments spread east across AL and GA with damaging gusts. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... Ahead of the cold front moving across the OH/MS Valleys, strong heating has promoted gradual destabilization and multiple corridors of storm formation this afternoon. 70s and 80s F surface temperatures indicate the air mass is well-mixed with dewpoints generally in the 40s F. The relatively dry boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer of stronger tropospheric winds, and a threat for scattered damaging winds. Some clustering and a stronger cold pool currently becoming established may focus this threat across the lower OH Valley into parts of TN/KY. Otherwise, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. Across parts of the mid to lower MS valley, predominately cellular storms are expected late this afternoon continuing through the evening. Hail appears likely with these storms given the very favorable lapse rates aloft (8-9 C/km) and elongated hodographs favoring supercells. Some significant hail near 2 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out with the more robust rotating storms. Upscale growth overnight may foster a wind threat as one or more clusters/line segments spread east across AL and GA with damaging gusts. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... Ahead of the cold front moving across the OH/MS Valleys, strong heating has promoted gradual destabilization and multiple corridors of storm formation this afternoon. 70s and 80s F surface temperatures indicate the air mass is well-mixed with dewpoints generally in the 40s F. The relatively dry boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer of stronger tropospheric winds, and a threat for scattered damaging winds. Some clustering and a stronger cold pool currently becoming established may focus this threat across the lower OH Valley into parts of TN/KY. Otherwise, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. Across parts of the mid to lower MS valley, predominately cellular storms are expected late this afternoon continuing through the evening. Hail appears likely with these storms given the very favorable lapse rates aloft (8-9 C/km) and elongated hodographs favoring supercells. Some significant hail near 2 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out with the more robust rotating storms. Upscale growth overnight may foster a wind threat as one or more clusters/line segments spread east across AL and GA with damaging gusts. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... Ahead of the cold front moving across the OH/MS Valleys, strong heating has promoted gradual destabilization and multiple corridors of storm formation this afternoon. 70s and 80s F surface temperatures indicate the air mass is well-mixed with dewpoints generally in the 40s F. The relatively dry boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer of stronger tropospheric winds, and a threat for scattered damaging winds. Some clustering and a stronger cold pool currently becoming established may focus this threat across the lower OH Valley into parts of TN/KY. Otherwise, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. Across parts of the mid to lower MS valley, predominately cellular storms are expected late this afternoon continuing through the evening. Hail appears likely with these storms given the very favorable lapse rates aloft (8-9 C/km) and elongated hodographs favoring supercells. Some significant hail near 2 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out with the more robust rotating storms. Upscale growth overnight may foster a wind threat as one or more clusters/line segments spread east across AL and GA with damaging gusts. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... Ahead of the cold front moving across the OH/MS Valleys, strong heating has promoted gradual destabilization and multiple corridors of storm formation this afternoon. 70s and 80s F surface temperatures indicate the air mass is well-mixed with dewpoints generally in the 40s F. The relatively dry boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer of stronger tropospheric winds, and a threat for scattered damaging winds. Some clustering and a stronger cold pool currently becoming established may focus this threat across the lower OH Valley into parts of TN/KY. Otherwise, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. Across parts of the mid to lower MS valley, predominately cellular storms are expected late this afternoon continuing through the evening. Hail appears likely with these storms given the very favorable lapse rates aloft (8-9 C/km) and elongated hodographs favoring supercells. Some significant hail near 2 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out with the more robust rotating storms. Upscale growth overnight may foster a wind threat as one or more clusters/line segments spread east across AL and GA with damaging gusts. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... Ahead of the cold front moving across the OH/MS Valleys, strong heating has promoted gradual destabilization and multiple corridors of storm formation this afternoon. 70s and 80s F surface temperatures indicate the air mass is well-mixed with dewpoints generally in the 40s F. The relatively dry boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer of stronger tropospheric winds, and a threat for scattered damaging winds. Some clustering and a stronger cold pool currently becoming established may focus this threat across the lower OH Valley into parts of TN/KY. Otherwise, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. Across parts of the mid to lower MS valley, predominately cellular storms are expected late this afternoon continuing through the evening. Hail appears likely with these storms given the very favorable lapse rates aloft (8-9 C/km) and elongated hodographs favoring supercells. Some significant hail near 2 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out with the more robust rotating storms. Upscale growth overnight may foster a wind threat as one or more clusters/line segments spread east across AL and GA with damaging gusts. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more