Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified mid-level pattern will persist through today as the western ridge builds into the Plains and the eastern trough deepens in place. As the mid-level ridge builds into the Plains, a lee trough will develop across the northern High Plains. This lee trough will induce strong southerly flow across then northern Plains within a dry return flow scenario. The result will be afternoon relative humidity in the low twenties to mid teens and afternoon winds gusting to 25-30 mph. The limiting factor for upgrading to critical will be relatively high fuel moisture, with ERC percentiles less than 80% and more generally less than 60%. Across the Florida peninsula, a surface cold front will move across the region. In its wake, a dry post-frontal airmass will move in. The dry airmass should support efficient mixing of stronger flow in the 925-850 millibar layer resulting in several hours of gusty winds. ..Marsh.. 04/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified mid-level pattern will persist through today as the western ridge builds into the Plains and the eastern trough deepens in place. As the mid-level ridge builds into the Plains, a lee trough will develop across the northern High Plains. This lee trough will induce strong southerly flow across then northern Plains within a dry return flow scenario. The result will be afternoon relative humidity in the low twenties to mid teens and afternoon winds gusting to 25-30 mph. The limiting factor for upgrading to critical will be relatively high fuel moisture, with ERC percentiles less than 80% and more generally less than 60%. Across the Florida peninsula, a surface cold front will move across the region. In its wake, a dry post-frontal airmass will move in. The dry airmass should support efficient mixing of stronger flow in the 925-850 millibar layer resulting in several hours of gusty winds. ..Marsh.. 04/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY/SOUTHEAST MT/WESTERN SD... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts to 65 mph are possible from the Big Horns to the Black Hills during the late afternoon to mid-evening Saturday. ...Big Horns to the Black Hills... A shortwave trough over WA/southern BC at 12Z Saturday will progress across the northern Rockies and MT. Mid-level height falls will overspread the northern High Plains during peak diurnal heating. Despite only scant buoyancy, the strengthening large-scale ascent will support scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon. With a belt of strong mid-level west-southwesterlies, a couple low-topped, high-based supercells are possible. Deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles to the east-southeast of the Big Horns should foster a threat for strong to localized 50-55 kt gusts before convection wanes after sunset. ...Mid-MO Valley to the Upper Midwest... As the low-level jet strengthens across the southern to central Great Plains Saturday night, sufficient ascent may support isolated thunderstorms overnight. But with poor-quality moisture return relative to the stout EML, it is uncertain if/where convection will be sustained. Uninhibited parcels may be rather elevated and with the expectation of weak buoyancy at most, severe hail potential appears limited. ..Grams.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY/SOUTHEAST MT/WESTERN SD... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts to 65 mph are possible from the Big Horns to the Black Hills during the late afternoon to mid-evening Saturday. ...Big Horns to the Black Hills... A shortwave trough over WA/southern BC at 12Z Saturday will progress across the northern Rockies and MT. Mid-level height falls will overspread the northern High Plains during peak diurnal heating. Despite only scant buoyancy, the strengthening large-scale ascent will support scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon. With a belt of strong mid-level west-southwesterlies, a couple low-topped, high-based supercells are possible. Deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles to the east-southeast of the Big Horns should foster a threat for strong to localized 50-55 kt gusts before convection wanes after sunset. ...Mid-MO Valley to the Upper Midwest... As the low-level jet strengthens across the southern to central Great Plains Saturday night, sufficient ascent may support isolated thunderstorms overnight. But with poor-quality moisture return relative to the stout EML, it is uncertain if/where convection will be sustained. Uninhibited parcels may be rather elevated and with the expectation of weak buoyancy at most, severe hail potential appears limited. ..Grams.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY/SOUTHEAST MT/WESTERN SD... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts to 65 mph are possible from the Big Horns to the Black Hills during the late afternoon to mid-evening Saturday. ...Big Horns to the Black Hills... A shortwave trough over WA/southern BC at 12Z Saturday will progress across the northern Rockies and MT. Mid-level height falls will overspread the northern High Plains during peak diurnal heating. Despite only scant buoyancy, the strengthening large-scale ascent will support scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon. With a belt of strong mid-level west-southwesterlies, a couple low-topped, high-based supercells are possible. Deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles to the east-southeast of the Big Horns should foster a threat for strong to localized 50-55 kt gusts before convection wanes after sunset. ...Mid-MO Valley to the Upper Midwest... As the low-level jet strengthens across the southern to central Great Plains Saturday night, sufficient ascent may support isolated thunderstorms overnight. But with poor-quality moisture return relative to the stout EML, it is uncertain if/where convection will be sustained. Uninhibited parcels may be rather elevated and with the expectation of weak buoyancy at most, severe hail potential appears limited. ..Grams.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY/SOUTHEAST MT/WESTERN SD... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts to 65 mph are possible from the Big Horns to the Black Hills during the late afternoon to mid-evening Saturday. ...Big Horns to the Black Hills... A shortwave trough over WA/southern BC at 12Z Saturday will progress across the northern Rockies and MT. Mid-level height falls will overspread the northern High Plains during peak diurnal heating. Despite only scant buoyancy, the strengthening large-scale ascent will support scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon. With a belt of strong mid-level west-southwesterlies, a couple low-topped, high-based supercells are possible. Deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles to the east-southeast of the Big Horns should foster a threat for strong to localized 50-55 kt gusts before convection wanes after sunset. ...Mid-MO Valley to the Upper Midwest... As the low-level jet strengthens across the southern to central Great Plains Saturday night, sufficient ascent may support isolated thunderstorms overnight. But with poor-quality moisture return relative to the stout EML, it is uncertain if/where convection will be sustained. Uninhibited parcels may be rather elevated and with the expectation of weak buoyancy at most, severe hail potential appears limited. ..Grams.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY/SOUTHEAST MT/WESTERN SD... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts to 65 mph are possible from the Big Horns to the Black Hills during the late afternoon to mid-evening Saturday. ...Big Horns to the Black Hills... A shortwave trough over WA/southern BC at 12Z Saturday will progress across the northern Rockies and MT. Mid-level height falls will overspread the northern High Plains during peak diurnal heating. Despite only scant buoyancy, the strengthening large-scale ascent will support scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon. With a belt of strong mid-level west-southwesterlies, a couple low-topped, high-based supercells are possible. Deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles to the east-southeast of the Big Horns should foster a threat for strong to localized 50-55 kt gusts before convection wanes after sunset. ...Mid-MO Valley to the Upper Midwest... As the low-level jet strengthens across the southern to central Great Plains Saturday night, sufficient ascent may support isolated thunderstorms overnight. But with poor-quality moisture return relative to the stout EML, it is uncertain if/where convection will be sustained. Uninhibited parcels may be rather elevated and with the expectation of weak buoyancy at most, severe hail potential appears limited. ..Grams.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY/SOUTHEAST MT/WESTERN SD... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts to 65 mph are possible from the Big Horns to the Black Hills during the late afternoon to mid-evening Saturday. ...Big Horns to the Black Hills... A shortwave trough over WA/southern BC at 12Z Saturday will progress across the northern Rockies and MT. Mid-level height falls will overspread the northern High Plains during peak diurnal heating. Despite only scant buoyancy, the strengthening large-scale ascent will support scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon. With a belt of strong mid-level west-southwesterlies, a couple low-topped, high-based supercells are possible. Deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles to the east-southeast of the Big Horns should foster a threat for strong to localized 50-55 kt gusts before convection wanes after sunset. ...Mid-MO Valley to the Upper Midwest... As the low-level jet strengthens across the southern to central Great Plains Saturday night, sufficient ascent may support isolated thunderstorms overnight. But with poor-quality moisture return relative to the stout EML, it is uncertain if/where convection will be sustained. Uninhibited parcels may be rather elevated and with the expectation of weak buoyancy at most, severe hail potential appears limited. ..Grams.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...Eastern Carolinas/Southeast Virginia/Southeast Georgia/Northern Florida... At mid-levels, a trough will move eastward across the eastern U.S. today, as a jet streak rounds the base of the system. At the surface, a low will gradually deepen across eastern North Carolina from morning into the afternoon. A somewhat moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the 50s F, will advect northward into eastern North Carolina during the day. Aloft, the exit region of a mid-level jet will overspread eastern North Carolina, where large-scale ascent will likely support convective development this morning. From this convection, an outflow boundary is expected to confine the area of destabilization to the immediate coast of North Carolina southwest of Cape Hatteras. Near Morehead City, the RAP forecast sounding at 20Z has MLCAPE near 650 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 55 knots, and a 0-3 km lapse rate near 7.5 C/km. This environment would be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. The primary threat would be for marginally severe gusts, but hail would also be possible. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be weaker to the west in the Appalachian foothills, a marginal severe threat could occur in areas that destabilize the most. Further south-southwest into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, a cold front is forecast to move slowly southward. If enough surface heating takes place near the front, cells that form along or near the boundary could obtain a marginal wind-damage or hail threat. ..Broyles/Marsh.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...Eastern Carolinas/Southeast Virginia/Southeast Georgia/Northern Florida... At mid-levels, a trough will move eastward across the eastern U.S. today, as a jet streak rounds the base of the system. At the surface, a low will gradually deepen across eastern North Carolina from morning into the afternoon. A somewhat moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the 50s F, will advect northward into eastern North Carolina during the day. Aloft, the exit region of a mid-level jet will overspread eastern North Carolina, where large-scale ascent will likely support convective development this morning. From this convection, an outflow boundary is expected to confine the area of destabilization to the immediate coast of North Carolina southwest of Cape Hatteras. Near Morehead City, the RAP forecast sounding at 20Z has MLCAPE near 650 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 55 knots, and a 0-3 km lapse rate near 7.5 C/km. This environment would be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. The primary threat would be for marginally severe gusts, but hail would also be possible. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be weaker to the west in the Appalachian foothills, a marginal severe threat could occur in areas that destabilize the most. Further south-southwest into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, a cold front is forecast to move slowly southward. If enough surface heating takes place near the front, cells that form along or near the boundary could obtain a marginal wind-damage or hail threat. ..Broyles/Marsh.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...Eastern Carolinas/Southeast Virginia/Southeast Georgia/Northern Florida... At mid-levels, a trough will move eastward across the eastern U.S. today, as a jet streak rounds the base of the system. At the surface, a low will gradually deepen across eastern North Carolina from morning into the afternoon. A somewhat moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the 50s F, will advect northward into eastern North Carolina during the day. Aloft, the exit region of a mid-level jet will overspread eastern North Carolina, where large-scale ascent will likely support convective development this morning. From this convection, an outflow boundary is expected to confine the area of destabilization to the immediate coast of North Carolina southwest of Cape Hatteras. Near Morehead City, the RAP forecast sounding at 20Z has MLCAPE near 650 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 55 knots, and a 0-3 km lapse rate near 7.5 C/km. This environment would be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. The primary threat would be for marginally severe gusts, but hail would also be possible. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be weaker to the west in the Appalachian foothills, a marginal severe threat could occur in areas that destabilize the most. Further south-southwest into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, a cold front is forecast to move slowly southward. If enough surface heating takes place near the front, cells that form along or near the boundary could obtain a marginal wind-damage or hail threat. ..Broyles/Marsh.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...Eastern Carolinas/Southeast Virginia/Southeast Georgia/Northern Florida... At mid-levels, a trough will move eastward across the eastern U.S. today, as a jet streak rounds the base of the system. At the surface, a low will gradually deepen across eastern North Carolina from morning into the afternoon. A somewhat moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the 50s F, will advect northward into eastern North Carolina during the day. Aloft, the exit region of a mid-level jet will overspread eastern North Carolina, where large-scale ascent will likely support convective development this morning. From this convection, an outflow boundary is expected to confine the area of destabilization to the immediate coast of North Carolina southwest of Cape Hatteras. Near Morehead City, the RAP forecast sounding at 20Z has MLCAPE near 650 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 55 knots, and a 0-3 km lapse rate near 7.5 C/km. This environment would be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. The primary threat would be for marginally severe gusts, but hail would also be possible. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be weaker to the west in the Appalachian foothills, a marginal severe threat could occur in areas that destabilize the most. Further south-southwest into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, a cold front is forecast to move slowly southward. If enough surface heating takes place near the front, cells that form along or near the boundary could obtain a marginal wind-damage or hail threat. ..Broyles/Marsh.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...Eastern Carolinas/Southeast Virginia/Southeast Georgia/Northern Florida... At mid-levels, a trough will move eastward across the eastern U.S. today, as a jet streak rounds the base of the system. At the surface, a low will gradually deepen across eastern North Carolina from morning into the afternoon. A somewhat moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the 50s F, will advect northward into eastern North Carolina during the day. Aloft, the exit region of a mid-level jet will overspread eastern North Carolina, where large-scale ascent will likely support convective development this morning. From this convection, an outflow boundary is expected to confine the area of destabilization to the immediate coast of North Carolina southwest of Cape Hatteras. Near Morehead City, the RAP forecast sounding at 20Z has MLCAPE near 650 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 55 knots, and a 0-3 km lapse rate near 7.5 C/km. This environment would be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. The primary threat would be for marginally severe gusts, but hail would also be possible. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be weaker to the west in the Appalachian foothills, a marginal severe threat could occur in areas that destabilize the most. Further south-southwest into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, a cold front is forecast to move slowly southward. If enough surface heating takes place near the front, cells that form along or near the boundary could obtain a marginal wind-damage or hail threat. ..Broyles/Marsh.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...Eastern Carolinas/Southeast Virginia/Southeast Georgia/Northern Florida... At mid-levels, a trough will move eastward across the eastern U.S. today, as a jet streak rounds the base of the system. At the surface, a low will gradually deepen across eastern North Carolina from morning into the afternoon. A somewhat moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the 50s F, will advect northward into eastern North Carolina during the day. Aloft, the exit region of a mid-level jet will overspread eastern North Carolina, where large-scale ascent will likely support convective development this morning. From this convection, an outflow boundary is expected to confine the area of destabilization to the immediate coast of North Carolina southwest of Cape Hatteras. Near Morehead City, the RAP forecast sounding at 20Z has MLCAPE near 650 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 55 knots, and a 0-3 km lapse rate near 7.5 C/km. This environment would be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. The primary threat would be for marginally severe gusts, but hail would also be possible. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be weaker to the west in the Appalachian foothills, a marginal severe threat could occur in areas that destabilize the most. Further south-southwest into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, a cold front is forecast to move slowly southward. If enough surface heating takes place near the front, cells that form along or near the boundary could obtain a marginal wind-damage or hail threat. ..Broyles/Marsh.. 04/11/2025 Read more

MD 0445 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA AND WEST-CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0445 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Areas affected...east-central Georgia and west-central South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 110045Z - 110245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Large hail and strong winds will be possible with thunderstorms moving across northeast Georgia into northwest South Carolina. These widely scattered severe storms should decrease in coverage and intensity with the loss of diurnal heating as they move south and east. A downstream watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Severe thunderstorms continue east-southeast across northern Georgia this evening in association with a cold, short-wave trough rotating through the long-wave trough across the eastern US. Steep mid-level lapse rates and long hodographs (and mostly straight through the cloud-bearing layer) continue to support a large hail threat with these storms. Additionally, strong, gusty winds, potentially near severe criteria, will be possible with the strongest downdrafts. As these storms move east-southeast this evening, the expectation is they will gradually weaken over the next several hours as the lower levels of the atmosphere stabilize with the loss of diurnal heating. However, strong, gusty winds and small hail should remain possible with these storms into the late evening -- including in the vicinity of Augusta likely around/between 10-11 PM EST. Despite the expected downward intensity trends of the thunderstorms, a couple of severe thunderstorms may be possible downstream of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 137. Given the overall limited temporal and spatial scale of the area, a new severe thunderstorm watch is not currently expected. That said, trends will be monitored. ..Marsh/Smith.. 04/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 32878284 33528308 34148293 34668270 34668203 34198143 33448126 33038136 32808189 32728236 32878284 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0444 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 137... FOR NORTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0444 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Areas affected...Northern Georgia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 137... Valid 102352Z - 110145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 137 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening. DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually expanding in areal coverage this evening, likely in response to the left-exit region of an approaching mid-level speed max. West-southwesterly boundary-layer inflow is also contributing, as this trajectory is allowing higher instability air mass across northern AL to spread downstream into northern GA. Latest radar data suggests the most robust updrafts are generating hail, much of it approaching golf ball size. Additionally, damaging winds are likely noted as the steepest lapse rate plume does extend into this portion of GA. This expanding convective corridor will gradually sag southeast as the evening progresses. ..Darrow.. 04/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...BMX... LAT...LON 34238291 33248323 33678573 34758531 34238291 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Southeast this evening, northward into the southern Appalachians. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. ...Southeast/Southern Appalachians... The latest water vapor imagery shows a cyclonic flow pattern over the eastern U.S., with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. One of these features appears to be in the mid Mississippi Valley, with a second located in the southern Appalachians. At the surface, surface dewpoints are mostly in the 40s F from northern sections of the Southeast northward into the southern Appalachians. A low is analyzed in northeast Alabama, where surface dewpoints are locally maximized with dewpoints in the lower 50s F. An outflow boundary extends from west to east from northern Mississippi to northern Georgia. To the south of this boundary, surface temperatures near 70 F are contributing to RAP-analyzed MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. This instability will help maintain convective development through the evening. At mid-levels, a jet streak is currently moving through the central Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The left exit region of the jet is located over northern sections of the Southeast. Strong deep-layer shear and lift associated with this feature will continue to support severe thunderstorm development this evening. Supercells and short bowing line segments will likely be capable of producing wind damage. The large-hail threat will be most likely with supercells. This evening, the severe threat is expected to shift southward with time into parts of east-central Mississippi, central Alabama and west-central Georgia. By late evening, the severe threat should become isolated and marginal as instability decreases across the Southeast ..Broyles.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Southeast this evening, northward into the southern Appalachians. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. ...Southeast/Southern Appalachians... The latest water vapor imagery shows a cyclonic flow pattern over the eastern U.S., with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. One of these features appears to be in the mid Mississippi Valley, with a second located in the southern Appalachians. At the surface, surface dewpoints are mostly in the 40s F from northern sections of the Southeast northward into the southern Appalachians. A low is analyzed in northeast Alabama, where surface dewpoints are locally maximized with dewpoints in the lower 50s F. An outflow boundary extends from west to east from northern Mississippi to northern Georgia. To the south of this boundary, surface temperatures near 70 F are contributing to RAP-analyzed MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. This instability will help maintain convective development through the evening. At mid-levels, a jet streak is currently moving through the central Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The left exit region of the jet is located over northern sections of the Southeast. Strong deep-layer shear and lift associated with this feature will continue to support severe thunderstorm development this evening. Supercells and short bowing line segments will likely be capable of producing wind damage. The large-hail threat will be most likely with supercells. This evening, the severe threat is expected to shift southward with time into parts of east-central Mississippi, central Alabama and west-central Georgia. By late evening, the severe threat should become isolated and marginal as instability decreases across the Southeast ..Broyles.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Southeast this evening, northward into the southern Appalachians. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. ...Southeast/Southern Appalachians... The latest water vapor imagery shows a cyclonic flow pattern over the eastern U.S., with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. One of these features appears to be in the mid Mississippi Valley, with a second located in the southern Appalachians. At the surface, surface dewpoints are mostly in the 40s F from northern sections of the Southeast northward into the southern Appalachians. A low is analyzed in northeast Alabama, where surface dewpoints are locally maximized with dewpoints in the lower 50s F. An outflow boundary extends from west to east from northern Mississippi to northern Georgia. To the south of this boundary, surface temperatures near 70 F are contributing to RAP-analyzed MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. This instability will help maintain convective development through the evening. At mid-levels, a jet streak is currently moving through the central Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The left exit region of the jet is located over northern sections of the Southeast. Strong deep-layer shear and lift associated with this feature will continue to support severe thunderstorm development this evening. Supercells and short bowing line segments will likely be capable of producing wind damage. The large-hail threat will be most likely with supercells. This evening, the severe threat is expected to shift southward with time into parts of east-central Mississippi, central Alabama and west-central Georgia. By late evening, the severe threat should become isolated and marginal as instability decreases across the Southeast ..Broyles.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Southeast this evening, northward into the southern Appalachians. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. ...Southeast/Southern Appalachians... The latest water vapor imagery shows a cyclonic flow pattern over the eastern U.S., with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. One of these features appears to be in the mid Mississippi Valley, with a second located in the southern Appalachians. At the surface, surface dewpoints are mostly in the 40s F from northern sections of the Southeast northward into the southern Appalachians. A low is analyzed in northeast Alabama, where surface dewpoints are locally maximized with dewpoints in the lower 50s F. An outflow boundary extends from west to east from northern Mississippi to northern Georgia. To the south of this boundary, surface temperatures near 70 F are contributing to RAP-analyzed MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. This instability will help maintain convective development through the evening. At mid-levels, a jet streak is currently moving through the central Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The left exit region of the jet is located over northern sections of the Southeast. Strong deep-layer shear and lift associated with this feature will continue to support severe thunderstorm development this evening. Supercells and short bowing line segments will likely be capable of producing wind damage. The large-hail threat will be most likely with supercells. This evening, the severe threat is expected to shift southward with time into parts of east-central Mississippi, central Alabama and west-central Georgia. By late evening, the severe threat should become isolated and marginal as instability decreases across the Southeast ..Broyles.. 04/11/2025 Read more