Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains will amplify as it moves into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move generally from the central Plains into the northern Great Lakes. A cold front will extend from this surface low south and then southwest to the central Plains. Ahead of this front, upper 50s to perhaps low 60s dewpoints are forecast which should be result in weak surface based instability Sunday afternoon. Guidance varies on the position of the surface low and destabilization ahead of the front. Long/straight hodographs within the cloud bearing layer should support some storm organization and the potential for some strong to locally severe storms. However, strong capping is forecast ahead of the front with thunderstorm potential mostly confined near the surface low. Destabilization should also be more limited farther north. Therefore, a narrow corridor of an uncapped warm sector with sufficient destabilization and shear for an isolated severe weather threat may exist, but is unclear if/where this may occur at this time. ...CO/KS... A few thunderstorms are possible along and north of a cold front across eastern Colorado and into western Kansas as a shortwave trough transits the central Rockies. Moisture/instability is expected to be limited which should keep any thunderstorm potential isolated. ..Bentley.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO THE BLACK HILLS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible from the Big Horns to the Black Hills during the late afternoon to mid-evening Saturday. ...Southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming to the Black Hills... A mid-level shortwave trough across the Pacific Northwest/southern British Columbia will advance east through the day Saturday. Height falls across northern Wyoming and southeast Montana will lead to strengthening ascent by late afternoon. Strong heating, featuring temperatures in the low 70s, will support sufficient instability for scattered thunderstorm activity. The deeply-mixed thermodynamic profile will support the potential for some severe wind gusts from this activity. This threat should quickly wane after sunset as the boundary layer cools. ...Mid-MO Valley to the Upper Midwest... A synoptically strong and nocturnally enhanced low-level jet will strengthen Saturday night across the central Plains. This will result in strengthening isentropic ascent in addition to height falls ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. Despite favorable synoptic scale lift, most forecast soundings show limited moisture and a lack of elevated instability. Some guidance has higher quality moisture and develops isolated thunderstorms, but even if storms develop, instability will likely be too weak to support more than small hail. ..Bentley.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO THE BLACK HILLS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible from the Big Horns to the Black Hills during the late afternoon to mid-evening Saturday. ...Southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming to the Black Hills... A mid-level shortwave trough across the Pacific Northwest/southern British Columbia will advance east through the day Saturday. Height falls across northern Wyoming and southeast Montana will lead to strengthening ascent by late afternoon. Strong heating, featuring temperatures in the low 70s, will support sufficient instability for scattered thunderstorm activity. The deeply-mixed thermodynamic profile will support the potential for some severe wind gusts from this activity. This threat should quickly wane after sunset as the boundary layer cools. ...Mid-MO Valley to the Upper Midwest... A synoptically strong and nocturnally enhanced low-level jet will strengthen Saturday night across the central Plains. This will result in strengthening isentropic ascent in addition to height falls ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. Despite favorable synoptic scale lift, most forecast soundings show limited moisture and a lack of elevated instability. Some guidance has higher quality moisture and develops isolated thunderstorms, but even if storms develop, instability will likely be too weak to support more than small hail. ..Bentley.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO THE BLACK HILLS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible from the Big Horns to the Black Hills during the late afternoon to mid-evening Saturday. ...Southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming to the Black Hills... A mid-level shortwave trough across the Pacific Northwest/southern British Columbia will advance east through the day Saturday. Height falls across northern Wyoming and southeast Montana will lead to strengthening ascent by late afternoon. Strong heating, featuring temperatures in the low 70s, will support sufficient instability for scattered thunderstorm activity. The deeply-mixed thermodynamic profile will support the potential for some severe wind gusts from this activity. This threat should quickly wane after sunset as the boundary layer cools. ...Mid-MO Valley to the Upper Midwest... A synoptically strong and nocturnally enhanced low-level jet will strengthen Saturday night across the central Plains. This will result in strengthening isentropic ascent in addition to height falls ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. Despite favorable synoptic scale lift, most forecast soundings show limited moisture and a lack of elevated instability. Some guidance has higher quality moisture and develops isolated thunderstorms, but even if storms develop, instability will likely be too weak to support more than small hail. ..Bentley.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO THE BLACK HILLS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible from the Big Horns to the Black Hills during the late afternoon to mid-evening Saturday. ...Southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming to the Black Hills... A mid-level shortwave trough across the Pacific Northwest/southern British Columbia will advance east through the day Saturday. Height falls across northern Wyoming and southeast Montana will lead to strengthening ascent by late afternoon. Strong heating, featuring temperatures in the low 70s, will support sufficient instability for scattered thunderstorm activity. The deeply-mixed thermodynamic profile will support the potential for some severe wind gusts from this activity. This threat should quickly wane after sunset as the boundary layer cools. ...Mid-MO Valley to the Upper Midwest... A synoptically strong and nocturnally enhanced low-level jet will strengthen Saturday night across the central Plains. This will result in strengthening isentropic ascent in addition to height falls ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. Despite favorable synoptic scale lift, most forecast soundings show limited moisture and a lack of elevated instability. Some guidance has higher quality moisture and develops isolated thunderstorms, but even if storms develop, instability will likely be too weak to support more than small hail. ..Bentley.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO THE BLACK HILLS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible from the Big Horns to the Black Hills during the late afternoon to mid-evening Saturday. ...Southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming to the Black Hills... A mid-level shortwave trough across the Pacific Northwest/southern British Columbia will advance east through the day Saturday. Height falls across northern Wyoming and southeast Montana will lead to strengthening ascent by late afternoon. Strong heating, featuring temperatures in the low 70s, will support sufficient instability for scattered thunderstorm activity. The deeply-mixed thermodynamic profile will support the potential for some severe wind gusts from this activity. This threat should quickly wane after sunset as the boundary layer cools. ...Mid-MO Valley to the Upper Midwest... A synoptically strong and nocturnally enhanced low-level jet will strengthen Saturday night across the central Plains. This will result in strengthening isentropic ascent in addition to height falls ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. Despite favorable synoptic scale lift, most forecast soundings show limited moisture and a lack of elevated instability. Some guidance has higher quality moisture and develops isolated thunderstorms, but even if storms develop, instability will likely be too weak to support more than small hail. ..Bentley.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO THE BLACK HILLS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible from the Big Horns to the Black Hills during the late afternoon to mid-evening Saturday. ...Southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming to the Black Hills... A mid-level shortwave trough across the Pacific Northwest/southern British Columbia will advance east through the day Saturday. Height falls across northern Wyoming and southeast Montana will lead to strengthening ascent by late afternoon. Strong heating, featuring temperatures in the low 70s, will support sufficient instability for scattered thunderstorm activity. The deeply-mixed thermodynamic profile will support the potential for some severe wind gusts from this activity. This threat should quickly wane after sunset as the boundary layer cools. ...Mid-MO Valley to the Upper Midwest... A synoptically strong and nocturnally enhanced low-level jet will strengthen Saturday night across the central Plains. This will result in strengthening isentropic ascent in addition to height falls ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. Despite favorable synoptic scale lift, most forecast soundings show limited moisture and a lack of elevated instability. Some guidance has higher quality moisture and develops isolated thunderstorms, but even if storms develop, instability will likely be too weak to support more than small hail. ..Bentley.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO THE BLACK HILLS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible from the Big Horns to the Black Hills during the late afternoon to mid-evening Saturday. ...Southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming to the Black Hills... A mid-level shortwave trough across the Pacific Northwest/southern British Columbia will advance east through the day Saturday. Height falls across northern Wyoming and southeast Montana will lead to strengthening ascent by late afternoon. Strong heating, featuring temperatures in the low 70s, will support sufficient instability for scattered thunderstorm activity. The deeply-mixed thermodynamic profile will support the potential for some severe wind gusts from this activity. This threat should quickly wane after sunset as the boundary layer cools. ...Mid-MO Valley to the Upper Midwest... A synoptically strong and nocturnally enhanced low-level jet will strengthen Saturday night across the central Plains. This will result in strengthening isentropic ascent in addition to height falls ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. Despite favorable synoptic scale lift, most forecast soundings show limited moisture and a lack of elevated instability. Some guidance has higher quality moisture and develops isolated thunderstorms, but even if storms develop, instability will likely be too weak to support more than small hail. ..Bentley.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO THE BLACK HILLS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible from the Big Horns to the Black Hills during the late afternoon to mid-evening Saturday. ...Southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming to the Black Hills... A mid-level shortwave trough across the Pacific Northwest/southern British Columbia will advance east through the day Saturday. Height falls across northern Wyoming and southeast Montana will lead to strengthening ascent by late afternoon. Strong heating, featuring temperatures in the low 70s, will support sufficient instability for scattered thunderstorm activity. The deeply-mixed thermodynamic profile will support the potential for some severe wind gusts from this activity. This threat should quickly wane after sunset as the boundary layer cools. ...Mid-MO Valley to the Upper Midwest... A synoptically strong and nocturnally enhanced low-level jet will strengthen Saturday night across the central Plains. This will result in strengthening isentropic ascent in addition to height falls ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. Despite favorable synoptic scale lift, most forecast soundings show limited moisture and a lack of elevated instability. Some guidance has higher quality moisture and develops isolated thunderstorms, but even if storms develop, instability will likely be too weak to support more than small hail. ..Bentley.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO THE BLACK HILLS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible from the Big Horns to the Black Hills during the late afternoon to mid-evening Saturday. ...Southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming to the Black Hills... A mid-level shortwave trough across the Pacific Northwest/southern British Columbia will advance east through the day Saturday. Height falls across northern Wyoming and southeast Montana will lead to strengthening ascent by late afternoon. Strong heating, featuring temperatures in the low 70s, will support sufficient instability for scattered thunderstorm activity. The deeply-mixed thermodynamic profile will support the potential for some severe wind gusts from this activity. This threat should quickly wane after sunset as the boundary layer cools. ...Mid-MO Valley to the Upper Midwest... A synoptically strong and nocturnally enhanced low-level jet will strengthen Saturday night across the central Plains. This will result in strengthening isentropic ascent in addition to height falls ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. Despite favorable synoptic scale lift, most forecast soundings show limited moisture and a lack of elevated instability. Some guidance has higher quality moisture and develops isolated thunderstorms, but even if storms develop, instability will likely be too weak to support more than small hail. ..Bentley.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z A cold front moving through Montana today will support gusty surface winds from the west and northwest through the afternoon across portions of northeastern Montana. Short range model guidance suggests relative humidity dropping into the 20-25 percent range this afternoon across northeastern Montana. These factors amid very dry fuels resulted in a westward expansion of Elevated highlights from the northern High Plains. A dry boundary layer associated with modest post-frontal west winds crossing the Florida Peninsula along with receptive fuels will continue to support an Elevated fire weather threat today. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid-level pattern will persist through today as the western ridge builds into the Plains and the eastern trough deepens in place. As the mid-level ridge builds into the Plains, a lee trough will develop across the northern High Plains. This lee trough will induce strong southerly flow across then northern Plains within a dry return flow scenario. The result will be afternoon relative humidity in the low twenties to mid teens and afternoon winds gusting to 25-30 mph. The limiting factor for upgrading to critical will be relatively high fuel moisture, with ERC percentiles less than 80% and more generally less than 60%. Across the Florida peninsula, a surface cold front will move across the region. In its wake, a dry post-frontal airmass will move in. The dry airmass should support efficient mixing of stronger flow in the 925-850 millibar layer resulting in several hours of gusty winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z A cold front moving through Montana today will support gusty surface winds from the west and northwest through the afternoon across portions of northeastern Montana. Short range model guidance suggests relative humidity dropping into the 20-25 percent range this afternoon across northeastern Montana. These factors amid very dry fuels resulted in a westward expansion of Elevated highlights from the northern High Plains. A dry boundary layer associated with modest post-frontal west winds crossing the Florida Peninsula along with receptive fuels will continue to support an Elevated fire weather threat today. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid-level pattern will persist through today as the western ridge builds into the Plains and the eastern trough deepens in place. As the mid-level ridge builds into the Plains, a lee trough will develop across the northern High Plains. This lee trough will induce strong southerly flow across then northern Plains within a dry return flow scenario. The result will be afternoon relative humidity in the low twenties to mid teens and afternoon winds gusting to 25-30 mph. The limiting factor for upgrading to critical will be relatively high fuel moisture, with ERC percentiles less than 80% and more generally less than 60%. Across the Florida peninsula, a surface cold front will move across the region. In its wake, a dry post-frontal airmass will move in. The dry airmass should support efficient mixing of stronger flow in the 925-850 millibar layer resulting in several hours of gusty winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z A cold front moving through Montana today will support gusty surface winds from the west and northwest through the afternoon across portions of northeastern Montana. Short range model guidance suggests relative humidity dropping into the 20-25 percent range this afternoon across northeastern Montana. These factors amid very dry fuels resulted in a westward expansion of Elevated highlights from the northern High Plains. A dry boundary layer associated with modest post-frontal west winds crossing the Florida Peninsula along with receptive fuels will continue to support an Elevated fire weather threat today. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid-level pattern will persist through today as the western ridge builds into the Plains and the eastern trough deepens in place. As the mid-level ridge builds into the Plains, a lee trough will develop across the northern High Plains. This lee trough will induce strong southerly flow across then northern Plains within a dry return flow scenario. The result will be afternoon relative humidity in the low twenties to mid teens and afternoon winds gusting to 25-30 mph. The limiting factor for upgrading to critical will be relatively high fuel moisture, with ERC percentiles less than 80% and more generally less than 60%. Across the Florida peninsula, a surface cold front will move across the region. In its wake, a dry post-frontal airmass will move in. The dry airmass should support efficient mixing of stronger flow in the 925-850 millibar layer resulting in several hours of gusty winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z A cold front moving through Montana today will support gusty surface winds from the west and northwest through the afternoon across portions of northeastern Montana. Short range model guidance suggests relative humidity dropping into the 20-25 percent range this afternoon across northeastern Montana. These factors amid very dry fuels resulted in a westward expansion of Elevated highlights from the northern High Plains. A dry boundary layer associated with modest post-frontal west winds crossing the Florida Peninsula along with receptive fuels will continue to support an Elevated fire weather threat today. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid-level pattern will persist through today as the western ridge builds into the Plains and the eastern trough deepens in place. As the mid-level ridge builds into the Plains, a lee trough will develop across the northern High Plains. This lee trough will induce strong southerly flow across then northern Plains within a dry return flow scenario. The result will be afternoon relative humidity in the low twenties to mid teens and afternoon winds gusting to 25-30 mph. The limiting factor for upgrading to critical will be relatively high fuel moisture, with ERC percentiles less than 80% and more generally less than 60%. Across the Florida peninsula, a surface cold front will move across the region. In its wake, a dry post-frontal airmass will move in. The dry airmass should support efficient mixing of stronger flow in the 925-850 millibar layer resulting in several hours of gusty winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z A cold front moving through Montana today will support gusty surface winds from the west and northwest through the afternoon across portions of northeastern Montana. Short range model guidance suggests relative humidity dropping into the 20-25 percent range this afternoon across northeastern Montana. These factors amid very dry fuels resulted in a westward expansion of Elevated highlights from the northern High Plains. A dry boundary layer associated with modest post-frontal west winds crossing the Florida Peninsula along with receptive fuels will continue to support an Elevated fire weather threat today. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid-level pattern will persist through today as the western ridge builds into the Plains and the eastern trough deepens in place. As the mid-level ridge builds into the Plains, a lee trough will develop across the northern High Plains. This lee trough will induce strong southerly flow across then northern Plains within a dry return flow scenario. The result will be afternoon relative humidity in the low twenties to mid teens and afternoon winds gusting to 25-30 mph. The limiting factor for upgrading to critical will be relatively high fuel moisture, with ERC percentiles less than 80% and more generally less than 60%. Across the Florida peninsula, a surface cold front will move across the region. In its wake, a dry post-frontal airmass will move in. The dry airmass should support efficient mixing of stronger flow in the 925-850 millibar layer resulting in several hours of gusty winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z A cold front moving through Montana today will support gusty surface winds from the west and northwest through the afternoon across portions of northeastern Montana. Short range model guidance suggests relative humidity dropping into the 20-25 percent range this afternoon across northeastern Montana. These factors amid very dry fuels resulted in a westward expansion of Elevated highlights from the northern High Plains. A dry boundary layer associated with modest post-frontal west winds crossing the Florida Peninsula along with receptive fuels will continue to support an Elevated fire weather threat today. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid-level pattern will persist through today as the western ridge builds into the Plains and the eastern trough deepens in place. As the mid-level ridge builds into the Plains, a lee trough will develop across the northern High Plains. This lee trough will induce strong southerly flow across then northern Plains within a dry return flow scenario. The result will be afternoon relative humidity in the low twenties to mid teens and afternoon winds gusting to 25-30 mph. The limiting factor for upgrading to critical will be relatively high fuel moisture, with ERC percentiles less than 80% and more generally less than 60%. Across the Florida peninsula, a surface cold front will move across the region. In its wake, a dry post-frontal airmass will move in. The dry airmass should support efficient mixing of stronger flow in the 925-850 millibar layer resulting in several hours of gusty winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z A cold front moving through Montana today will support gusty surface winds from the west and northwest through the afternoon across portions of northeastern Montana. Short range model guidance suggests relative humidity dropping into the 20-25 percent range this afternoon across northeastern Montana. These factors amid very dry fuels resulted in a westward expansion of Elevated highlights from the northern High Plains. A dry boundary layer associated with modest post-frontal west winds crossing the Florida Peninsula along with receptive fuels will continue to support an Elevated fire weather threat today. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid-level pattern will persist through today as the western ridge builds into the Plains and the eastern trough deepens in place. As the mid-level ridge builds into the Plains, a lee trough will develop across the northern High Plains. This lee trough will induce strong southerly flow across then northern Plains within a dry return flow scenario. The result will be afternoon relative humidity in the low twenties to mid teens and afternoon winds gusting to 25-30 mph. The limiting factor for upgrading to critical will be relatively high fuel moisture, with ERC percentiles less than 80% and more generally less than 60%. Across the Florida peninsula, a surface cold front will move across the region. In its wake, a dry post-frontal airmass will move in. The dry airmass should support efficient mixing of stronger flow in the 925-850 millibar layer resulting in several hours of gusty winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z A cold front moving through Montana today will support gusty surface winds from the west and northwest through the afternoon across portions of northeastern Montana. Short range model guidance suggests relative humidity dropping into the 20-25 percent range this afternoon across northeastern Montana. These factors amid very dry fuels resulted in a westward expansion of Elevated highlights from the northern High Plains. A dry boundary layer associated with modest post-frontal west winds crossing the Florida Peninsula along with receptive fuels will continue to support an Elevated fire weather threat today. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid-level pattern will persist through today as the western ridge builds into the Plains and the eastern trough deepens in place. As the mid-level ridge builds into the Plains, a lee trough will develop across the northern High Plains. This lee trough will induce strong southerly flow across then northern Plains within a dry return flow scenario. The result will be afternoon relative humidity in the low twenties to mid teens and afternoon winds gusting to 25-30 mph. The limiting factor for upgrading to critical will be relatively high fuel moisture, with ERC percentiles less than 80% and more generally less than 60%. Across the Florida peninsula, a surface cold front will move across the region. In its wake, a dry post-frontal airmass will move in. The dry airmass should support efficient mixing of stronger flow in the 925-850 millibar layer resulting in several hours of gusty winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening from parts of north Florida and far southeast Georgia to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia. ...North Florida to the Eastern Carolinas and Far Southeast Virginia... A mid-level trough will continue amplifying today over the southern Appalachians as one embedded speed maximum rotates northeastward over the Carolinas, and an upstream shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MS Valley into the Southeast. An associated weak surface low will develop northeastward across eastern NC and far southeast VA, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into north FL. Surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s, in combination with daytime heating beneath cold mid-level temperatures, will support MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon near the cyclone track across the eastern Carolinas, and along the front in north FL. The weak instability and relatively straight hodographs aloft suggest some updraft organization will be possible, with an isolated threat for hail and strong to damaging winds this afternoon/evening. A few low-topped thunderstorms should also occur this afternoon over the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be weaker compared to areas farther east/southeast, with a limited overall severe threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening from parts of north Florida and far southeast Georgia to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia. ...North Florida to the Eastern Carolinas and Far Southeast Virginia... A mid-level trough will continue amplifying today over the southern Appalachians as one embedded speed maximum rotates northeastward over the Carolinas, and an upstream shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MS Valley into the Southeast. An associated weak surface low will develop northeastward across eastern NC and far southeast VA, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into north FL. Surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s, in combination with daytime heating beneath cold mid-level temperatures, will support MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon near the cyclone track across the eastern Carolinas, and along the front in north FL. The weak instability and relatively straight hodographs aloft suggest some updraft organization will be possible, with an isolated threat for hail and strong to damaging winds this afternoon/evening. A few low-topped thunderstorms should also occur this afternoon over the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be weaker compared to areas farther east/southeast, with a limited overall severe threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/11/2025 Read more