Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening from parts of north Florida and far southeast Georgia to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia. ...North Florida to the Eastern Carolinas and Far Southeast Virginia... A mid-level trough will continue amplifying today over the southern Appalachians as one embedded speed maximum rotates northeastward over the Carolinas, and an upstream shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MS Valley into the Southeast. An associated weak surface low will develop northeastward across eastern NC and far southeast VA, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into north FL. Surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s, in combination with daytime heating beneath cold mid-level temperatures, will support MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon near the cyclone track across the eastern Carolinas, and along the front in north FL. The weak instability and relatively straight hodographs aloft suggest some updraft organization will be possible, with an isolated threat for hail and strong to damaging winds this afternoon/evening. A few low-topped thunderstorms should also occur this afternoon over the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be weaker compared to areas farther east/southeast, with a limited overall severe threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...North FL to eastern NC this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough is in the process of amplifying over the southern Appalachians as one embedded speed max rotates northeastward over the Carolinas today, and an upstream speed max digs southeastward from the mid MS Valley to the Southeast. An associated surface cyclone will develop northeastward across the eastern Carolinas today, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into north FL. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 50s, in combination with surface heating beneath cold (less than -20 C at 500 mb) midlevel temperatures, will result in MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon near the cyclone track across the eastern Carolinas and along the front in north FL. The weak buoyancy and relatively straight hodographs suggest some storm organization will be possible with a low-end threat for hail and strong outflow winds for a few hours this afternoon/evening. A few low-topped thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon over the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and vertical shear will be weaker compared to areas farther east and southeast, and only sub-severe hail/wind is expected. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...North FL to eastern NC this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough is in the process of amplifying over the southern Appalachians as one embedded speed max rotates northeastward over the Carolinas today, and an upstream speed max digs southeastward from the mid MS Valley to the Southeast. An associated surface cyclone will develop northeastward across the eastern Carolinas today, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into north FL. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 50s, in combination with surface heating beneath cold (less than -20 C at 500 mb) midlevel temperatures, will result in MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon near the cyclone track across the eastern Carolinas and along the front in north FL. The weak buoyancy and relatively straight hodographs suggest some storm organization will be possible with a low-end threat for hail and strong outflow winds for a few hours this afternoon/evening. A few low-topped thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon over the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and vertical shear will be weaker compared to areas farther east and southeast, and only sub-severe hail/wind is expected. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...North FL to eastern NC this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough is in the process of amplifying over the southern Appalachians as one embedded speed max rotates northeastward over the Carolinas today, and an upstream speed max digs southeastward from the mid MS Valley to the Southeast. An associated surface cyclone will develop northeastward across the eastern Carolinas today, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into north FL. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 50s, in combination with surface heating beneath cold (less than -20 C at 500 mb) midlevel temperatures, will result in MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon near the cyclone track across the eastern Carolinas and along the front in north FL. The weak buoyancy and relatively straight hodographs suggest some storm organization will be possible with a low-end threat for hail and strong outflow winds for a few hours this afternoon/evening. A few low-topped thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon over the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and vertical shear will be weaker compared to areas farther east and southeast, and only sub-severe hail/wind is expected. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...North FL to eastern NC this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough is in the process of amplifying over the southern Appalachians as one embedded speed max rotates northeastward over the Carolinas today, and an upstream speed max digs southeastward from the mid MS Valley to the Southeast. An associated surface cyclone will develop northeastward across the eastern Carolinas today, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into north FL. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 50s, in combination with surface heating beneath cold (less than -20 C at 500 mb) midlevel temperatures, will result in MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon near the cyclone track across the eastern Carolinas and along the front in north FL. The weak buoyancy and relatively straight hodographs suggest some storm organization will be possible with a low-end threat for hail and strong outflow winds for a few hours this afternoon/evening. A few low-topped thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon over the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and vertical shear will be weaker compared to areas farther east and southeast, and only sub-severe hail/wind is expected. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...North FL to eastern NC this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough is in the process of amplifying over the southern Appalachians as one embedded speed max rotates northeastward over the Carolinas today, and an upstream speed max digs southeastward from the mid MS Valley to the Southeast. An associated surface cyclone will develop northeastward across the eastern Carolinas today, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into north FL. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 50s, in combination with surface heating beneath cold (less than -20 C at 500 mb) midlevel temperatures, will result in MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon near the cyclone track across the eastern Carolinas and along the front in north FL. The weak buoyancy and relatively straight hodographs suggest some storm organization will be possible with a low-end threat for hail and strong outflow winds for a few hours this afternoon/evening. A few low-topped thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon over the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and vertical shear will be weaker compared to areas farther east and southeast, and only sub-severe hail/wind is expected. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...North FL to eastern NC this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough is in the process of amplifying over the southern Appalachians as one embedded speed max rotates northeastward over the Carolinas today, and an upstream speed max digs southeastward from the mid MS Valley to the Southeast. An associated surface cyclone will develop northeastward across the eastern Carolinas today, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into north FL. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 50s, in combination with surface heating beneath cold (less than -20 C at 500 mb) midlevel temperatures, will result in MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon near the cyclone track across the eastern Carolinas and along the front in north FL. The weak buoyancy and relatively straight hodographs suggest some storm organization will be possible with a low-end threat for hail and strong outflow winds for a few hours this afternoon/evening. A few low-topped thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon over the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and vertical shear will be weaker compared to areas farther east and southeast, and only sub-severe hail/wind is expected. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/11/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Monday... Further amplification of a broadening mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone is expected across the Upper Great Lakes to the southern ON/QC border area. Poleward moisture quality from the western Gulf will remain sub-optimal, but will continue to improve beneath a lobe of the southern Great Plains EML. The northeast extent of weak surface buoyancy should overspread the OH Valley by Monday afternoon. This portion of the front will coincide with robust 700-500 mb southwesterlies, yielding potential for fast-moving convection. Guidance consensus suggests this will remain the favored corridor for at least a damaging wind threat. ...D7/Thursday... Guidance has trended towards greater amplification of a Prairie Provinces to north-central CONUS upper trough, although run-to-run continuity is quite poor. This would be accompanied by a cold front sweeping southeast into the South-Central States. With potentially greater low-level moisture relative to the D3-4 system, some severe potential may become evident once predictability improves. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Monday... Further amplification of a broadening mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone is expected across the Upper Great Lakes to the southern ON/QC border area. Poleward moisture quality from the western Gulf will remain sub-optimal, but will continue to improve beneath a lobe of the southern Great Plains EML. The northeast extent of weak surface buoyancy should overspread the OH Valley by Monday afternoon. This portion of the front will coincide with robust 700-500 mb southwesterlies, yielding potential for fast-moving convection. Guidance consensus suggests this will remain the favored corridor for at least a damaging wind threat. ...D7/Thursday... Guidance has trended towards greater amplification of a Prairie Provinces to north-central CONUS upper trough, although run-to-run continuity is quite poor. This would be accompanied by a cold front sweeping southeast into the South-Central States. With potentially greater low-level moisture relative to the D3-4 system, some severe potential may become evident once predictability improves. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Monday... Further amplification of a broadening mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone is expected across the Upper Great Lakes to the southern ON/QC border area. Poleward moisture quality from the western Gulf will remain sub-optimal, but will continue to improve beneath a lobe of the southern Great Plains EML. The northeast extent of weak surface buoyancy should overspread the OH Valley by Monday afternoon. This portion of the front will coincide with robust 700-500 mb southwesterlies, yielding potential for fast-moving convection. Guidance consensus suggests this will remain the favored corridor for at least a damaging wind threat. ...D7/Thursday... Guidance has trended towards greater amplification of a Prairie Provinces to north-central CONUS upper trough, although run-to-run continuity is quite poor. This would be accompanied by a cold front sweeping southeast into the South-Central States. With potentially greater low-level moisture relative to the D3-4 system, some severe potential may become evident once predictability improves. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Monday... Further amplification of a broadening mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone is expected across the Upper Great Lakes to the southern ON/QC border area. Poleward moisture quality from the western Gulf will remain sub-optimal, but will continue to improve beneath a lobe of the southern Great Plains EML. The northeast extent of weak surface buoyancy should overspread the OH Valley by Monday afternoon. This portion of the front will coincide with robust 700-500 mb southwesterlies, yielding potential for fast-moving convection. Guidance consensus suggests this will remain the favored corridor for at least a damaging wind threat. ...D7/Thursday... Guidance has trended towards greater amplification of a Prairie Provinces to north-central CONUS upper trough, although run-to-run continuity is quite poor. This would be accompanied by a cold front sweeping southeast into the South-Central States. With potentially greater low-level moisture relative to the D3-4 system, some severe potential may become evident once predictability improves. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Monday... Further amplification of a broadening mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone is expected across the Upper Great Lakes to the southern ON/QC border area. Poleward moisture quality from the western Gulf will remain sub-optimal, but will continue to improve beneath a lobe of the southern Great Plains EML. The northeast extent of weak surface buoyancy should overspread the OH Valley by Monday afternoon. This portion of the front will coincide with robust 700-500 mb southwesterlies, yielding potential for fast-moving convection. Guidance consensus suggests this will remain the favored corridor for at least a damaging wind threat. ...D7/Thursday... Guidance has trended towards greater amplification of a Prairie Provinces to north-central CONUS upper trough, although run-to-run continuity is quite poor. This would be accompanied by a cold front sweeping southeast into the South-Central States. With potentially greater low-level moisture relative to the D3-4 system, some severe potential may become evident once predictability improves. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Monday... Further amplification of a broadening mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone is expected across the Upper Great Lakes to the southern ON/QC border area. Poleward moisture quality from the western Gulf will remain sub-optimal, but will continue to improve beneath a lobe of the southern Great Plains EML. The northeast extent of weak surface buoyancy should overspread the OH Valley by Monday afternoon. This portion of the front will coincide with robust 700-500 mb southwesterlies, yielding potential for fast-moving convection. Guidance consensus suggests this will remain the favored corridor for at least a damaging wind threat. ...D7/Thursday... Guidance has trended towards greater amplification of a Prairie Provinces to north-central CONUS upper trough, although run-to-run continuity is quite poor. This would be accompanied by a cold front sweeping southeast into the South-Central States. With potentially greater low-level moisture relative to the D3-4 system, some severe potential may become evident once predictability improves. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes... A shortwave trough over the northern High Plains on Sunday morning is expected to amplify as it moves east into the northern Upper Midwest. This will maintain a deep surface cyclone from the central Great Plains into the Upper Great Lakes. Guidance has above-average spread across latest runs and poor run-to-run continuity on placement of the cyclone Sunday afternoon. This will be crucial to identifying a mesoscale corridor of surface-based severe threat, given initially poor quality boundary-layer moisture relative to a pronounced EML. The slower guidance with more northern destabilization suggests that low-end severe potential is plausible across a portion of the Upper MS Valley. Otherwise, rounds of elevated convection are anticipated through the period within a broad but persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime. Buoyancy should remain weak and be a limiting factor for large hail. ...CO/KS... Atop an intensifying surface ridge nosing down the High Plains, a favorably diffluent upper-level flow regime will become prevalent by late afternoon Sunday and persist into Sunday night. This should support a corridor of convection from CO into KS, that becomes increasingly elevated given the undercutting surface front. Guidance has above-average spread on the latitudinal extent of where convection should form, yielding a broad low-probability thunder area in this forecast. ..Grams.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes... A shortwave trough over the northern High Plains on Sunday morning is expected to amplify as it moves east into the northern Upper Midwest. This will maintain a deep surface cyclone from the central Great Plains into the Upper Great Lakes. Guidance has above-average spread across latest runs and poor run-to-run continuity on placement of the cyclone Sunday afternoon. This will be crucial to identifying a mesoscale corridor of surface-based severe threat, given initially poor quality boundary-layer moisture relative to a pronounced EML. The slower guidance with more northern destabilization suggests that low-end severe potential is plausible across a portion of the Upper MS Valley. Otherwise, rounds of elevated convection are anticipated through the period within a broad but persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime. Buoyancy should remain weak and be a limiting factor for large hail. ...CO/KS... Atop an intensifying surface ridge nosing down the High Plains, a favorably diffluent upper-level flow regime will become prevalent by late afternoon Sunday and persist into Sunday night. This should support a corridor of convection from CO into KS, that becomes increasingly elevated given the undercutting surface front. Guidance has above-average spread on the latitudinal extent of where convection should form, yielding a broad low-probability thunder area in this forecast. ..Grams.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes... A shortwave trough over the northern High Plains on Sunday morning is expected to amplify as it moves east into the northern Upper Midwest. This will maintain a deep surface cyclone from the central Great Plains into the Upper Great Lakes. Guidance has above-average spread across latest runs and poor run-to-run continuity on placement of the cyclone Sunday afternoon. This will be crucial to identifying a mesoscale corridor of surface-based severe threat, given initially poor quality boundary-layer moisture relative to a pronounced EML. The slower guidance with more northern destabilization suggests that low-end severe potential is plausible across a portion of the Upper MS Valley. Otherwise, rounds of elevated convection are anticipated through the period within a broad but persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime. Buoyancy should remain weak and be a limiting factor for large hail. ...CO/KS... Atop an intensifying surface ridge nosing down the High Plains, a favorably diffluent upper-level flow regime will become prevalent by late afternoon Sunday and persist into Sunday night. This should support a corridor of convection from CO into KS, that becomes increasingly elevated given the undercutting surface front. Guidance has above-average spread on the latitudinal extent of where convection should form, yielding a broad low-probability thunder area in this forecast. ..Grams.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes... A shortwave trough over the northern High Plains on Sunday morning is expected to amplify as it moves east into the northern Upper Midwest. This will maintain a deep surface cyclone from the central Great Plains into the Upper Great Lakes. Guidance has above-average spread across latest runs and poor run-to-run continuity on placement of the cyclone Sunday afternoon. This will be crucial to identifying a mesoscale corridor of surface-based severe threat, given initially poor quality boundary-layer moisture relative to a pronounced EML. The slower guidance with more northern destabilization suggests that low-end severe potential is plausible across a portion of the Upper MS Valley. Otherwise, rounds of elevated convection are anticipated through the period within a broad but persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime. Buoyancy should remain weak and be a limiting factor for large hail. ...CO/KS... Atop an intensifying surface ridge nosing down the High Plains, a favorably diffluent upper-level flow regime will become prevalent by late afternoon Sunday and persist into Sunday night. This should support a corridor of convection from CO into KS, that becomes increasingly elevated given the undercutting surface front. Guidance has above-average spread on the latitudinal extent of where convection should form, yielding a broad low-probability thunder area in this forecast. ..Grams.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes... A shortwave trough over the northern High Plains on Sunday morning is expected to amplify as it moves east into the northern Upper Midwest. This will maintain a deep surface cyclone from the central Great Plains into the Upper Great Lakes. Guidance has above-average spread across latest runs and poor run-to-run continuity on placement of the cyclone Sunday afternoon. This will be crucial to identifying a mesoscale corridor of surface-based severe threat, given initially poor quality boundary-layer moisture relative to a pronounced EML. The slower guidance with more northern destabilization suggests that low-end severe potential is plausible across a portion of the Upper MS Valley. Otherwise, rounds of elevated convection are anticipated through the period within a broad but persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime. Buoyancy should remain weak and be a limiting factor for large hail. ...CO/KS... Atop an intensifying surface ridge nosing down the High Plains, a favorably diffluent upper-level flow regime will become prevalent by late afternoon Sunday and persist into Sunday night. This should support a corridor of convection from CO into KS, that becomes increasingly elevated given the undercutting surface front. Guidance has above-average spread on the latitudinal extent of where convection should form, yielding a broad low-probability thunder area in this forecast. ..Grams.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes... A shortwave trough over the northern High Plains on Sunday morning is expected to amplify as it moves east into the northern Upper Midwest. This will maintain a deep surface cyclone from the central Great Plains into the Upper Great Lakes. Guidance has above-average spread across latest runs and poor run-to-run continuity on placement of the cyclone Sunday afternoon. This will be crucial to identifying a mesoscale corridor of surface-based severe threat, given initially poor quality boundary-layer moisture relative to a pronounced EML. The slower guidance with more northern destabilization suggests that low-end severe potential is plausible across a portion of the Upper MS Valley. Otherwise, rounds of elevated convection are anticipated through the period within a broad but persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime. Buoyancy should remain weak and be a limiting factor for large hail. ...CO/KS... Atop an intensifying surface ridge nosing down the High Plains, a favorably diffluent upper-level flow regime will become prevalent by late afternoon Sunday and persist into Sunday night. This should support a corridor of convection from CO into KS, that becomes increasingly elevated given the undercutting surface front. Guidance has above-average spread on the latitudinal extent of where convection should form, yielding a broad low-probability thunder area in this forecast. ..Grams.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS...EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern should transition from western/central ridge and eastern trough to western trough, central ridge, and eastern trough. This will be the result of the eastern trough continuing to move east toward the Atlantic at the same time as the western trough continues east. This ridge should stretch from northern Mexico into the Great Lakes, with a shortwave trough digging southeast into the northern Rocky Mountains. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will develop across the Southern Plains in response to an increase in westerly mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the aforementioned Northern Rocky Mountain trough and a subtropical jet. This downslope flow will allow relative humidity to fall into the low teens (locally into the upper-single digits) with gusty winds to near 35 mph across the Critical area. Surrounding the Critical area will be a large area of Elevated. Within the elevated, surface winds may not be as great as in the corridor highlighted by the Critical area. This, coupled with ERC values generally less than 80%, should preclude the need for Critical delineation. ... Florida Peninsula ... A dry, post-frontal airmass should be in place across much of the region on Saturday. Much of the peninsula will see little if any precipitation associated with the frontal passage on Friday. Thus, fuels should continue to dry. The dry airmass should allow for sufficiently strong flow to mix down to the surface to support elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 04/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more