Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN WY...SOUTHEASTERN MT AND EXTREME WESTERN SD... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts are possible from the Big Horns and southeast Montana to the Black Hills this afternoon into the evening. ...Northern WY/southeastern MT/western SD this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over WA/OR this morning will progress eastward over ID/MT/WY by tonight, with downstream lee cyclogenesis into the central Plains. Low-level moisture will remain limited across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains, but forcing for ascent and midlevel moisture should be sufficient for some high-based convection this afternoon/evening across northern WY and southern MT. Inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy and some increase in midlevel flow could result in isolated outflow gusts of 50-65 mph. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/12/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... After a relative lull in severe potential mid-week, latest guidance indicates increasing severe possibilities late week. Compared to 24 hours ago, deterministic models have vastly changed to an evolution of a shortwave trough digging south from the Canadian Rockies into the Lower CO Valley during D5-7/Wednesday-Friday. This would support a greater breadth and quality of western Gulf moisture advection across the central states beneath an initially pronounced EML. SPC and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance indicate broadening 5 to mesoscale pockets of 15 percent probabilities during D6-8/Thursday-Saturday. But given the lack of day-to-day continuity and rather large spread across ensemble guidance, consideration of any severe area appears premature this cycle. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... After a relative lull in severe potential mid-week, latest guidance indicates increasing severe possibilities late week. Compared to 24 hours ago, deterministic models have vastly changed to an evolution of a shortwave trough digging south from the Canadian Rockies into the Lower CO Valley during D5-7/Wednesday-Friday. This would support a greater breadth and quality of western Gulf moisture advection across the central states beneath an initially pronounced EML. SPC and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance indicate broadening 5 to mesoscale pockets of 15 percent probabilities during D6-8/Thursday-Saturday. But given the lack of day-to-day continuity and rather large spread across ensemble guidance, consideration of any severe area appears premature this cycle. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... After a relative lull in severe potential mid-week, latest guidance indicates increasing severe possibilities late week. Compared to 24 hours ago, deterministic models have vastly changed to an evolution of a shortwave trough digging south from the Canadian Rockies into the Lower CO Valley during D5-7/Wednesday-Friday. This would support a greater breadth and quality of western Gulf moisture advection across the central states beneath an initially pronounced EML. SPC and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance indicate broadening 5 to mesoscale pockets of 15 percent probabilities during D6-8/Thursday-Saturday. But given the lack of day-to-day continuity and rather large spread across ensemble guidance, consideration of any severe area appears premature this cycle. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... After a relative lull in severe potential mid-week, latest guidance indicates increasing severe possibilities late week. Compared to 24 hours ago, deterministic models have vastly changed to an evolution of a shortwave trough digging south from the Canadian Rockies into the Lower CO Valley during D5-7/Wednesday-Friday. This would support a greater breadth and quality of western Gulf moisture advection across the central states beneath an initially pronounced EML. SPC and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance indicate broadening 5 to mesoscale pockets of 15 percent probabilities during D6-8/Thursday-Saturday. But given the lack of day-to-day continuity and rather large spread across ensemble guidance, consideration of any severe area appears premature this cycle. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... After a relative lull in severe potential mid-week, latest guidance indicates increasing severe possibilities late week. Compared to 24 hours ago, deterministic models have vastly changed to an evolution of a shortwave trough digging south from the Canadian Rockies into the Lower CO Valley during D5-7/Wednesday-Friday. This would support a greater breadth and quality of western Gulf moisture advection across the central states beneath an initially pronounced EML. SPC and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance indicate broadening 5 to mesoscale pockets of 15 percent probabilities during D6-8/Thursday-Saturday. But given the lack of day-to-day continuity and rather large spread across ensemble guidance, consideration of any severe area appears premature this cycle. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... After a relative lull in severe potential mid-week, latest guidance indicates increasing severe possibilities late week. Compared to 24 hours ago, deterministic models have vastly changed to an evolution of a shortwave trough digging south from the Canadian Rockies into the Lower CO Valley during D5-7/Wednesday-Friday. This would support a greater breadth and quality of western Gulf moisture advection across the central states beneath an initially pronounced EML. SPC and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance indicate broadening 5 to mesoscale pockets of 15 percent probabilities during D6-8/Thursday-Saturday. But given the lack of day-to-day continuity and rather large spread across ensemble guidance, consideration of any severe area appears premature this cycle. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... After a relative lull in severe potential mid-week, latest guidance indicates increasing severe possibilities late week. Compared to 24 hours ago, deterministic models have vastly changed to an evolution of a shortwave trough digging south from the Canadian Rockies into the Lower CO Valley during D5-7/Wednesday-Friday. This would support a greater breadth and quality of western Gulf moisture advection across the central states beneath an initially pronounced EML. SPC and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance indicate broadening 5 to mesoscale pockets of 15 percent probabilities during D6-8/Thursday-Saturday. But given the lack of day-to-day continuity and rather large spread across ensemble guidance, consideration of any severe area appears premature this cycle. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will further amplify over the Upper Great Lakes eastward towards the Ottawa Valley through early Tuesday. In its wake, a separate shortwave impulse and attendant mid-level jetlet will dive southeast across the northern Great Plains towards the Lower OH Valley. This will yield a broadening upper trough from the north-central into the eastern CONUS. At the surface, the lead wave will foster a near 990-mb cyclone tracking from Lake Superior to the ON/QC border. A cold front will arc south across the Lower Great Lakes and then southwestward through the Mid-South by late Monday. ...OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... A high shear-low CAPE setup is anticipated on Monday afternoon and evening, despite the presence of an expanding EML across the region. Poleward moisture quality beneath the EML should remain sub-optimal, but will be improved relative to prior days. The drier spectrum of guidance appears more reasonable with mid to perhaps upper 50s surface dew points advecting as far northeast as the Upper OH Valley, ahead of the surface cold front. Guidance is reasonably consistent that at least isolated thunderstorms should develop in early to mid-afternoon across the Central OH Valley vicinity as mid-level height falls overspread the confined but destabilizing warm/moist sector. With already strong 700-500 mb southwesterlies strengthening further, fast-moving/highly sheared convection is anticipated. Despite veered surface winds, low-level hodograph curvature should be moderately enlarged. This setup may yield a few supercells that consolidate into a cluster spreading east across the central Appalachians. A couple tornadoes and damaging winds appear to be the primary hazards. East of the higher terrain, remnant steep low-level lapse rates may support a threat for isolated damaging gusts given the strong wind fields, before convection becomes increasingly elevated Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will further amplify over the Upper Great Lakes eastward towards the Ottawa Valley through early Tuesday. In its wake, a separate shortwave impulse and attendant mid-level jetlet will dive southeast across the northern Great Plains towards the Lower OH Valley. This will yield a broadening upper trough from the north-central into the eastern CONUS. At the surface, the lead wave will foster a near 990-mb cyclone tracking from Lake Superior to the ON/QC border. A cold front will arc south across the Lower Great Lakes and then southwestward through the Mid-South by late Monday. ...OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... A high shear-low CAPE setup is anticipated on Monday afternoon and evening, despite the presence of an expanding EML across the region. Poleward moisture quality beneath the EML should remain sub-optimal, but will be improved relative to prior days. The drier spectrum of guidance appears more reasonable with mid to perhaps upper 50s surface dew points advecting as far northeast as the Upper OH Valley, ahead of the surface cold front. Guidance is reasonably consistent that at least isolated thunderstorms should develop in early to mid-afternoon across the Central OH Valley vicinity as mid-level height falls overspread the confined but destabilizing warm/moist sector. With already strong 700-500 mb southwesterlies strengthening further, fast-moving/highly sheared convection is anticipated. Despite veered surface winds, low-level hodograph curvature should be moderately enlarged. This setup may yield a few supercells that consolidate into a cluster spreading east across the central Appalachians. A couple tornadoes and damaging winds appear to be the primary hazards. East of the higher terrain, remnant steep low-level lapse rates may support a threat for isolated damaging gusts given the strong wind fields, before convection becomes increasingly elevated Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will further amplify over the Upper Great Lakes eastward towards the Ottawa Valley through early Tuesday. In its wake, a separate shortwave impulse and attendant mid-level jetlet will dive southeast across the northern Great Plains towards the Lower OH Valley. This will yield a broadening upper trough from the north-central into the eastern CONUS. At the surface, the lead wave will foster a near 990-mb cyclone tracking from Lake Superior to the ON/QC border. A cold front will arc south across the Lower Great Lakes and then southwestward through the Mid-South by late Monday. ...OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... A high shear-low CAPE setup is anticipated on Monday afternoon and evening, despite the presence of an expanding EML across the region. Poleward moisture quality beneath the EML should remain sub-optimal, but will be improved relative to prior days. The drier spectrum of guidance appears more reasonable with mid to perhaps upper 50s surface dew points advecting as far northeast as the Upper OH Valley, ahead of the surface cold front. Guidance is reasonably consistent that at least isolated thunderstorms should develop in early to mid-afternoon across the Central OH Valley vicinity as mid-level height falls overspread the confined but destabilizing warm/moist sector. With already strong 700-500 mb southwesterlies strengthening further, fast-moving/highly sheared convection is anticipated. Despite veered surface winds, low-level hodograph curvature should be moderately enlarged. This setup may yield a few supercells that consolidate into a cluster spreading east across the central Appalachians. A couple tornadoes and damaging winds appear to be the primary hazards. East of the higher terrain, remnant steep low-level lapse rates may support a threat for isolated damaging gusts given the strong wind fields, before convection becomes increasingly elevated Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will further amplify over the Upper Great Lakes eastward towards the Ottawa Valley through early Tuesday. In its wake, a separate shortwave impulse and attendant mid-level jetlet will dive southeast across the northern Great Plains towards the Lower OH Valley. This will yield a broadening upper trough from the north-central into the eastern CONUS. At the surface, the lead wave will foster a near 990-mb cyclone tracking from Lake Superior to the ON/QC border. A cold front will arc south across the Lower Great Lakes and then southwestward through the Mid-South by late Monday. ...OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... A high shear-low CAPE setup is anticipated on Monday afternoon and evening, despite the presence of an expanding EML across the region. Poleward moisture quality beneath the EML should remain sub-optimal, but will be improved relative to prior days. The drier spectrum of guidance appears more reasonable with mid to perhaps upper 50s surface dew points advecting as far northeast as the Upper OH Valley, ahead of the surface cold front. Guidance is reasonably consistent that at least isolated thunderstorms should develop in early to mid-afternoon across the Central OH Valley vicinity as mid-level height falls overspread the confined but destabilizing warm/moist sector. With already strong 700-500 mb southwesterlies strengthening further, fast-moving/highly sheared convection is anticipated. Despite veered surface winds, low-level hodograph curvature should be moderately enlarged. This setup may yield a few supercells that consolidate into a cluster spreading east across the central Appalachians. A couple tornadoes and damaging winds appear to be the primary hazards. East of the higher terrain, remnant steep low-level lapse rates may support a threat for isolated damaging gusts given the strong wind fields, before convection becomes increasingly elevated Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will further amplify over the Upper Great Lakes eastward towards the Ottawa Valley through early Tuesday. In its wake, a separate shortwave impulse and attendant mid-level jetlet will dive southeast across the northern Great Plains towards the Lower OH Valley. This will yield a broadening upper trough from the north-central into the eastern CONUS. At the surface, the lead wave will foster a near 990-mb cyclone tracking from Lake Superior to the ON/QC border. A cold front will arc south across the Lower Great Lakes and then southwestward through the Mid-South by late Monday. ...OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... A high shear-low CAPE setup is anticipated on Monday afternoon and evening, despite the presence of an expanding EML across the region. Poleward moisture quality beneath the EML should remain sub-optimal, but will be improved relative to prior days. The drier spectrum of guidance appears more reasonable with mid to perhaps upper 50s surface dew points advecting as far northeast as the Upper OH Valley, ahead of the surface cold front. Guidance is reasonably consistent that at least isolated thunderstorms should develop in early to mid-afternoon across the Central OH Valley vicinity as mid-level height falls overspread the confined but destabilizing warm/moist sector. With already strong 700-500 mb southwesterlies strengthening further, fast-moving/highly sheared convection is anticipated. Despite veered surface winds, low-level hodograph curvature should be moderately enlarged. This setup may yield a few supercells that consolidate into a cluster spreading east across the central Appalachians. A couple tornadoes and damaging winds appear to be the primary hazards. East of the higher terrain, remnant steep low-level lapse rates may support a threat for isolated damaging gusts given the strong wind fields, before convection becomes increasingly elevated Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will further amplify over the Upper Great Lakes eastward towards the Ottawa Valley through early Tuesday. In its wake, a separate shortwave impulse and attendant mid-level jetlet will dive southeast across the northern Great Plains towards the Lower OH Valley. This will yield a broadening upper trough from the north-central into the eastern CONUS. At the surface, the lead wave will foster a near 990-mb cyclone tracking from Lake Superior to the ON/QC border. A cold front will arc south across the Lower Great Lakes and then southwestward through the Mid-South by late Monday. ...OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... A high shear-low CAPE setup is anticipated on Monday afternoon and evening, despite the presence of an expanding EML across the region. Poleward moisture quality beneath the EML should remain sub-optimal, but will be improved relative to prior days. The drier spectrum of guidance appears more reasonable with mid to perhaps upper 50s surface dew points advecting as far northeast as the Upper OH Valley, ahead of the surface cold front. Guidance is reasonably consistent that at least isolated thunderstorms should develop in early to mid-afternoon across the Central OH Valley vicinity as mid-level height falls overspread the confined but destabilizing warm/moist sector. With already strong 700-500 mb southwesterlies strengthening further, fast-moving/highly sheared convection is anticipated. Despite veered surface winds, low-level hodograph curvature should be moderately enlarged. This setup may yield a few supercells that consolidate into a cluster spreading east across the central Appalachians. A couple tornadoes and damaging winds appear to be the primary hazards. East of the higher terrain, remnant steep low-level lapse rates may support a threat for isolated damaging gusts given the strong wind fields, before convection becomes increasingly elevated Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough moves into the northern Plains on Sunday, some moderate mid-level flow will extend into the southern Rockies. A broad surface trough will evolve into a deepening low in the Upper Midwest and in the southern High Plains. A cold front will move through the northern/central Plains. ...Southwest into southern High Plains and Central Texas... With the deepening surface low and stronger mid-level winds than on Saturday, a broader area of 20 mph winds is expected. RH could again reach single digits locally. Otherwise, 10-15% will be more common. Critical fire weather is expected from southeast Arizona, southern/central New Mexico, into parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. ...Nebraska... Though the front will be through the area, cooler temperatures will tend to lag behind as strong northwesterly flow--with some downslope component--and surface heating occur into part of the afternoon. Winds of 20-25 mph, with higher gusts, appear possible. RH during the afternoon is somewhat uncertain, but temperatures in this pattern should end up warmer than guidance suggests. With that in mind, the warmer/drier guidance was weighted more for this forecast. RH in this scenario of 15-25% is probable. Elevated fire weather is possible given the ongoing drought and dry grasses. ..Wendt.. 04/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough moves into the northern Plains on Sunday, some moderate mid-level flow will extend into the southern Rockies. A broad surface trough will evolve into a deepening low in the Upper Midwest and in the southern High Plains. A cold front will move through the northern/central Plains. ...Southwest into southern High Plains and Central Texas... With the deepening surface low and stronger mid-level winds than on Saturday, a broader area of 20 mph winds is expected. RH could again reach single digits locally. Otherwise, 10-15% will be more common. Critical fire weather is expected from southeast Arizona, southern/central New Mexico, into parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. ...Nebraska... Though the front will be through the area, cooler temperatures will tend to lag behind as strong northwesterly flow--with some downslope component--and surface heating occur into part of the afternoon. Winds of 20-25 mph, with higher gusts, appear possible. RH during the afternoon is somewhat uncertain, but temperatures in this pattern should end up warmer than guidance suggests. With that in mind, the warmer/drier guidance was weighted more for this forecast. RH in this scenario of 15-25% is probable. Elevated fire weather is possible given the ongoing drought and dry grasses. ..Wendt.. 04/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough moves into the northern Plains on Sunday, some moderate mid-level flow will extend into the southern Rockies. A broad surface trough will evolve into a deepening low in the Upper Midwest and in the southern High Plains. A cold front will move through the northern/central Plains. ...Southwest into southern High Plains and Central Texas... With the deepening surface low and stronger mid-level winds than on Saturday, a broader area of 20 mph winds is expected. RH could again reach single digits locally. Otherwise, 10-15% will be more common. Critical fire weather is expected from southeast Arizona, southern/central New Mexico, into parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. ...Nebraska... Though the front will be through the area, cooler temperatures will tend to lag behind as strong northwesterly flow--with some downslope component--and surface heating occur into part of the afternoon. Winds of 20-25 mph, with higher gusts, appear possible. RH during the afternoon is somewhat uncertain, but temperatures in this pattern should end up warmer than guidance suggests. With that in mind, the warmer/drier guidance was weighted more for this forecast. RH in this scenario of 15-25% is probable. Elevated fire weather is possible given the ongoing drought and dry grasses. ..Wendt.. 04/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough moves into the northern Plains on Sunday, some moderate mid-level flow will extend into the southern Rockies. A broad surface trough will evolve into a deepening low in the Upper Midwest and in the southern High Plains. A cold front will move through the northern/central Plains. ...Southwest into southern High Plains and Central Texas... With the deepening surface low and stronger mid-level winds than on Saturday, a broader area of 20 mph winds is expected. RH could again reach single digits locally. Otherwise, 10-15% will be more common. Critical fire weather is expected from southeast Arizona, southern/central New Mexico, into parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. ...Nebraska... Though the front will be through the area, cooler temperatures will tend to lag behind as strong northwesterly flow--with some downslope component--and surface heating occur into part of the afternoon. Winds of 20-25 mph, with higher gusts, appear possible. RH during the afternoon is somewhat uncertain, but temperatures in this pattern should end up warmer than guidance suggests. With that in mind, the warmer/drier guidance was weighted more for this forecast. RH in this scenario of 15-25% is probable. Elevated fire weather is possible given the ongoing drought and dry grasses. ..Wendt.. 04/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough moves into the northern Plains on Sunday, some moderate mid-level flow will extend into the southern Rockies. A broad surface trough will evolve into a deepening low in the Upper Midwest and in the southern High Plains. A cold front will move through the northern/central Plains. ...Southwest into southern High Plains and Central Texas... With the deepening surface low and stronger mid-level winds than on Saturday, a broader area of 20 mph winds is expected. RH could again reach single digits locally. Otherwise, 10-15% will be more common. Critical fire weather is expected from southeast Arizona, southern/central New Mexico, into parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. ...Nebraska... Though the front will be through the area, cooler temperatures will tend to lag behind as strong northwesterly flow--with some downslope component--and surface heating occur into part of the afternoon. Winds of 20-25 mph, with higher gusts, appear possible. RH during the afternoon is somewhat uncertain, but temperatures in this pattern should end up warmer than guidance suggests. With that in mind, the warmer/drier guidance was weighted more for this forecast. RH in this scenario of 15-25% is probable. Elevated fire weather is possible given the ongoing drought and dry grasses. ..Wendt.. 04/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough moves into the northern Plains on Sunday, some moderate mid-level flow will extend into the southern Rockies. A broad surface trough will evolve into a deepening low in the Upper Midwest and in the southern High Plains. A cold front will move through the northern/central Plains. ...Southwest into southern High Plains and Central Texas... With the deepening surface low and stronger mid-level winds than on Saturday, a broader area of 20 mph winds is expected. RH could again reach single digits locally. Otherwise, 10-15% will be more common. Critical fire weather is expected from southeast Arizona, southern/central New Mexico, into parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. ...Nebraska... Though the front will be through the area, cooler temperatures will tend to lag behind as strong northwesterly flow--with some downslope component--and surface heating occur into part of the afternoon. Winds of 20-25 mph, with higher gusts, appear possible. RH during the afternoon is somewhat uncertain, but temperatures in this pattern should end up warmer than guidance suggests. With that in mind, the warmer/drier guidance was weighted more for this forecast. RH in this scenario of 15-25% is probable. Elevated fire weather is possible given the ongoing drought and dry grasses. ..Wendt.. 04/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more