Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, a few severe, are possible on Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen as it moves eastward across the Great Lakes on Monday, with a leading speed max moving across the OH Valley during the day and a secondary stronger wave arriving overnight. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from Lake Superior into southwest Quebec, with a cold front extending southwestward across OH and into the OH Valley during the day. Just off the surface, 850 mb winds will be veered to westerly, with speeds increasing to around 40 kt with the cold front passage. High pressure will maintain dry conditions over much of the Southeast, but a narrow plume of mid 50s F dewpoints will develop ahead of the cold front. Midlevel moistening with the lead wave will shift east from MO across IL, IN, OH and northern KY during the day. ...Northern KY into OH, WV, PA, MD... Increasing midlevel moisture, as well as low-level moisture advection will lead to gradual destabilization, but also perhaps reduced daytime heating ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings from several models indicate relatively poor lapse rates below 700 mb with a relative warm nose at that level. Midlevel cooling will still result in 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, likely elevated instability over northern areas. That said, increasing mean boundary-layer wind speeds near the front and potential for pockets of stronger instability/heating could still yield strong to severe gusts, and, marginal hail as hodographs will be long. ..Jewell.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, a few severe, are possible on Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen as it moves eastward across the Great Lakes on Monday, with a leading speed max moving across the OH Valley during the day and a secondary stronger wave arriving overnight. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from Lake Superior into southwest Quebec, with a cold front extending southwestward across OH and into the OH Valley during the day. Just off the surface, 850 mb winds will be veered to westerly, with speeds increasing to around 40 kt with the cold front passage. High pressure will maintain dry conditions over much of the Southeast, but a narrow plume of mid 50s F dewpoints will develop ahead of the cold front. Midlevel moistening with the lead wave will shift east from MO across IL, IN, OH and northern KY during the day. ...Northern KY into OH, WV, PA, MD... Increasing midlevel moisture, as well as low-level moisture advection will lead to gradual destabilization, but also perhaps reduced daytime heating ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings from several models indicate relatively poor lapse rates below 700 mb with a relative warm nose at that level. Midlevel cooling will still result in 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, likely elevated instability over northern areas. That said, increasing mean boundary-layer wind speeds near the front and potential for pockets of stronger instability/heating could still yield strong to severe gusts, and, marginal hail as hodographs will be long. ..Jewell.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, a few severe, are possible on Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen as it moves eastward across the Great Lakes on Monday, with a leading speed max moving across the OH Valley during the day and a secondary stronger wave arriving overnight. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from Lake Superior into southwest Quebec, with a cold front extending southwestward across OH and into the OH Valley during the day. Just off the surface, 850 mb winds will be veered to westerly, with speeds increasing to around 40 kt with the cold front passage. High pressure will maintain dry conditions over much of the Southeast, but a narrow plume of mid 50s F dewpoints will develop ahead of the cold front. Midlevel moistening with the lead wave will shift east from MO across IL, IN, OH and northern KY during the day. ...Northern KY into OH, WV, PA, MD... Increasing midlevel moisture, as well as low-level moisture advection will lead to gradual destabilization, but also perhaps reduced daytime heating ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings from several models indicate relatively poor lapse rates below 700 mb with a relative warm nose at that level. Midlevel cooling will still result in 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, likely elevated instability over northern areas. That said, increasing mean boundary-layer wind speeds near the front and potential for pockets of stronger instability/heating could still yield strong to severe gusts, and, marginal hail as hodographs will be long. ..Jewell.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, a few severe, are possible on Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen as it moves eastward across the Great Lakes on Monday, with a leading speed max moving across the OH Valley during the day and a secondary stronger wave arriving overnight. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from Lake Superior into southwest Quebec, with a cold front extending southwestward across OH and into the OH Valley during the day. Just off the surface, 850 mb winds will be veered to westerly, with speeds increasing to around 40 kt with the cold front passage. High pressure will maintain dry conditions over much of the Southeast, but a narrow plume of mid 50s F dewpoints will develop ahead of the cold front. Midlevel moistening with the lead wave will shift east from MO across IL, IN, OH and northern KY during the day. ...Northern KY into OH, WV, PA, MD... Increasing midlevel moisture, as well as low-level moisture advection will lead to gradual destabilization, but also perhaps reduced daytime heating ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings from several models indicate relatively poor lapse rates below 700 mb with a relative warm nose at that level. Midlevel cooling will still result in 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, likely elevated instability over northern areas. That said, increasing mean boundary-layer wind speeds near the front and potential for pockets of stronger instability/heating could still yield strong to severe gusts, and, marginal hail as hodographs will be long. ..Jewell.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, a few severe, are possible on Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen as it moves eastward across the Great Lakes on Monday, with a leading speed max moving across the OH Valley during the day and a secondary stronger wave arriving overnight. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from Lake Superior into southwest Quebec, with a cold front extending southwestward across OH and into the OH Valley during the day. Just off the surface, 850 mb winds will be veered to westerly, with speeds increasing to around 40 kt with the cold front passage. High pressure will maintain dry conditions over much of the Southeast, but a narrow plume of mid 50s F dewpoints will develop ahead of the cold front. Midlevel moistening with the lead wave will shift east from MO across IL, IN, OH and northern KY during the day. ...Northern KY into OH, WV, PA, MD... Increasing midlevel moisture, as well as low-level moisture advection will lead to gradual destabilization, but also perhaps reduced daytime heating ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings from several models indicate relatively poor lapse rates below 700 mb with a relative warm nose at that level. Midlevel cooling will still result in 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, likely elevated instability over northern areas. That said, increasing mean boundary-layer wind speeds near the front and potential for pockets of stronger instability/heating could still yield strong to severe gusts, and, marginal hail as hodographs will be long. ..Jewell.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS... Only minor updates have been made to the Critical across Arizona, New Mexico, and West Texas, as well as the Elevated in the Central Plains. A slight expansion of the Critical into east-central Arizona was made to reflect morning ensemble guidance, and a westward expansion of the Elevated across Nebraska into eastern Wyoming was made to reflect higher confidence in lower RH values coupled with the previously forecast 20 MPH winds. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert.. 04/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0133 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough moves into the northern Plains on Sunday, some moderate mid-level flow will extend into the southern Rockies. A broad surface trough will evolve into a deepening low in the Upper Midwest and in the southern High Plains. A cold front will move through the northern/central Plains. ...Southwest into southern High Plains and Central Texas... With the deepening surface low and stronger mid-level winds than on Saturday, a broader area of 20 mph winds is expected. RH could again reach single digits locally. Otherwise, 10-15% will be more common. Critical fire weather is expected from southeast Arizona, southern/central New Mexico, into parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. ...Nebraska... Though the front will be through the area, cooler temperatures will tend to lag behind as strong northwesterly flow--with some downslope component--and surface heating occur into part of the afternoon. Winds of 20-25 mph, with higher gusts, appear possible. RH during the afternoon is somewhat uncertain, but temperatures in this pattern should end up warmer than guidance suggests. With that in mind, the warmer/drier guidance was weighted more for this forecast. RH in this scenario of 15-25% is probable. Elevated fire weather is possible given the ongoing drought and dry grasses. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS... Only minor updates have been made to the Critical across Arizona, New Mexico, and West Texas, as well as the Elevated in the Central Plains. A slight expansion of the Critical into east-central Arizona was made to reflect morning ensemble guidance, and a westward expansion of the Elevated across Nebraska into eastern Wyoming was made to reflect higher confidence in lower RH values coupled with the previously forecast 20 MPH winds. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert.. 04/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0133 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough moves into the northern Plains on Sunday, some moderate mid-level flow will extend into the southern Rockies. A broad surface trough will evolve into a deepening low in the Upper Midwest and in the southern High Plains. A cold front will move through the northern/central Plains. ...Southwest into southern High Plains and Central Texas... With the deepening surface low and stronger mid-level winds than on Saturday, a broader area of 20 mph winds is expected. RH could again reach single digits locally. Otherwise, 10-15% will be more common. Critical fire weather is expected from southeast Arizona, southern/central New Mexico, into parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. ...Nebraska... Though the front will be through the area, cooler temperatures will tend to lag behind as strong northwesterly flow--with some downslope component--and surface heating occur into part of the afternoon. Winds of 20-25 mph, with higher gusts, appear possible. RH during the afternoon is somewhat uncertain, but temperatures in this pattern should end up warmer than guidance suggests. With that in mind, the warmer/drier guidance was weighted more for this forecast. RH in this scenario of 15-25% is probable. Elevated fire weather is possible given the ongoing drought and dry grasses. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS... Only minor updates have been made to the Critical across Arizona, New Mexico, and West Texas, as well as the Elevated in the Central Plains. A slight expansion of the Critical into east-central Arizona was made to reflect morning ensemble guidance, and a westward expansion of the Elevated across Nebraska into eastern Wyoming was made to reflect higher confidence in lower RH values coupled with the previously forecast 20 MPH winds. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert.. 04/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0133 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough moves into the northern Plains on Sunday, some moderate mid-level flow will extend into the southern Rockies. A broad surface trough will evolve into a deepening low in the Upper Midwest and in the southern High Plains. A cold front will move through the northern/central Plains. ...Southwest into southern High Plains and Central Texas... With the deepening surface low and stronger mid-level winds than on Saturday, a broader area of 20 mph winds is expected. RH could again reach single digits locally. Otherwise, 10-15% will be more common. Critical fire weather is expected from southeast Arizona, southern/central New Mexico, into parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. ...Nebraska... Though the front will be through the area, cooler temperatures will tend to lag behind as strong northwesterly flow--with some downslope component--and surface heating occur into part of the afternoon. Winds of 20-25 mph, with higher gusts, appear possible. RH during the afternoon is somewhat uncertain, but temperatures in this pattern should end up warmer than guidance suggests. With that in mind, the warmer/drier guidance was weighted more for this forecast. RH in this scenario of 15-25% is probable. Elevated fire weather is possible given the ongoing drought and dry grasses. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS... Only minor updates have been made to the Critical across Arizona, New Mexico, and West Texas, as well as the Elevated in the Central Plains. A slight expansion of the Critical into east-central Arizona was made to reflect morning ensemble guidance, and a westward expansion of the Elevated across Nebraska into eastern Wyoming was made to reflect higher confidence in lower RH values coupled with the previously forecast 20 MPH winds. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert.. 04/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0133 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough moves into the northern Plains on Sunday, some moderate mid-level flow will extend into the southern Rockies. A broad surface trough will evolve into a deepening low in the Upper Midwest and in the southern High Plains. A cold front will move through the northern/central Plains. ...Southwest into southern High Plains and Central Texas... With the deepening surface low and stronger mid-level winds than on Saturday, a broader area of 20 mph winds is expected. RH could again reach single digits locally. Otherwise, 10-15% will be more common. Critical fire weather is expected from southeast Arizona, southern/central New Mexico, into parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. ...Nebraska... Though the front will be through the area, cooler temperatures will tend to lag behind as strong northwesterly flow--with some downslope component--and surface heating occur into part of the afternoon. Winds of 20-25 mph, with higher gusts, appear possible. RH during the afternoon is somewhat uncertain, but temperatures in this pattern should end up warmer than guidance suggests. With that in mind, the warmer/drier guidance was weighted more for this forecast. RH in this scenario of 15-25% is probable. Elevated fire weather is possible given the ongoing drought and dry grasses. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS... Only minor updates have been made to the Critical across Arizona, New Mexico, and West Texas, as well as the Elevated in the Central Plains. A slight expansion of the Critical into east-central Arizona was made to reflect morning ensemble guidance, and a westward expansion of the Elevated across Nebraska into eastern Wyoming was made to reflect higher confidence in lower RH values coupled with the previously forecast 20 MPH winds. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert.. 04/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0133 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough moves into the northern Plains on Sunday, some moderate mid-level flow will extend into the southern Rockies. A broad surface trough will evolve into a deepening low in the Upper Midwest and in the southern High Plains. A cold front will move through the northern/central Plains. ...Southwest into southern High Plains and Central Texas... With the deepening surface low and stronger mid-level winds than on Saturday, a broader area of 20 mph winds is expected. RH could again reach single digits locally. Otherwise, 10-15% will be more common. Critical fire weather is expected from southeast Arizona, southern/central New Mexico, into parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. ...Nebraska... Though the front will be through the area, cooler temperatures will tend to lag behind as strong northwesterly flow--with some downslope component--and surface heating occur into part of the afternoon. Winds of 20-25 mph, with higher gusts, appear possible. RH during the afternoon is somewhat uncertain, but temperatures in this pattern should end up warmer than guidance suggests. With that in mind, the warmer/drier guidance was weighted more for this forecast. RH in this scenario of 15-25% is probable. Elevated fire weather is possible given the ongoing drought and dry grasses. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS... Only minor updates have been made to the Critical across Arizona, New Mexico, and West Texas, as well as the Elevated in the Central Plains. A slight expansion of the Critical into east-central Arizona was made to reflect morning ensemble guidance, and a westward expansion of the Elevated across Nebraska into eastern Wyoming was made to reflect higher confidence in lower RH values coupled with the previously forecast 20 MPH winds. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert.. 04/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0133 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough moves into the northern Plains on Sunday, some moderate mid-level flow will extend into the southern Rockies. A broad surface trough will evolve into a deepening low in the Upper Midwest and in the southern High Plains. A cold front will move through the northern/central Plains. ...Southwest into southern High Plains and Central Texas... With the deepening surface low and stronger mid-level winds than on Saturday, a broader area of 20 mph winds is expected. RH could again reach single digits locally. Otherwise, 10-15% will be more common. Critical fire weather is expected from southeast Arizona, southern/central New Mexico, into parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. ...Nebraska... Though the front will be through the area, cooler temperatures will tend to lag behind as strong northwesterly flow--with some downslope component--and surface heating occur into part of the afternoon. Winds of 20-25 mph, with higher gusts, appear possible. RH during the afternoon is somewhat uncertain, but temperatures in this pattern should end up warmer than guidance suggests. With that in mind, the warmer/drier guidance was weighted more for this forecast. RH in this scenario of 15-25% is probable. Elevated fire weather is possible given the ongoing drought and dry grasses. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS... Only minor updates have been made to the Critical across Arizona, New Mexico, and West Texas, as well as the Elevated in the Central Plains. A slight expansion of the Critical into east-central Arizona was made to reflect morning ensemble guidance, and a westward expansion of the Elevated across Nebraska into eastern Wyoming was made to reflect higher confidence in lower RH values coupled with the previously forecast 20 MPH winds. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert.. 04/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0133 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough moves into the northern Plains on Sunday, some moderate mid-level flow will extend into the southern Rockies. A broad surface trough will evolve into a deepening low in the Upper Midwest and in the southern High Plains. A cold front will move through the northern/central Plains. ...Southwest into southern High Plains and Central Texas... With the deepening surface low and stronger mid-level winds than on Saturday, a broader area of 20 mph winds is expected. RH could again reach single digits locally. Otherwise, 10-15% will be more common. Critical fire weather is expected from southeast Arizona, southern/central New Mexico, into parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. ...Nebraska... Though the front will be through the area, cooler temperatures will tend to lag behind as strong northwesterly flow--with some downslope component--and surface heating occur into part of the afternoon. Winds of 20-25 mph, with higher gusts, appear possible. RH during the afternoon is somewhat uncertain, but temperatures in this pattern should end up warmer than guidance suggests. With that in mind, the warmer/drier guidance was weighted more for this forecast. RH in this scenario of 15-25% is probable. Elevated fire weather is possible given the ongoing drought and dry grasses. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will depart the East Coast Saturday night, with a surface high settling over the Southeast on Sunday. To the west, a shortwave trough will move east out of MT and toward the upper MS Valley by Monday morning. A cold front in association with this trough will quickly push across the northern and central Plains, with a pre-frontal trough roughly from MN into MO and southwestward into OK. Given the southeastern surface high, moisture return will be limited ahead of the Plains feature. However, cooling aloft and steepening of lapse rates, as well as lift will allow for elevated instability to develop into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms overnight. Weak instability should preclude any severe threat. ..Jewell.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will depart the East Coast Saturday night, with a surface high settling over the Southeast on Sunday. To the west, a shortwave trough will move east out of MT and toward the upper MS Valley by Monday morning. A cold front in association with this trough will quickly push across the northern and central Plains, with a pre-frontal trough roughly from MN into MO and southwestward into OK. Given the southeastern surface high, moisture return will be limited ahead of the Plains feature. However, cooling aloft and steepening of lapse rates, as well as lift will allow for elevated instability to develop into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms overnight. Weak instability should preclude any severe threat. ..Jewell.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will depart the East Coast Saturday night, with a surface high settling over the Southeast on Sunday. To the west, a shortwave trough will move east out of MT and toward the upper MS Valley by Monday morning. A cold front in association with this trough will quickly push across the northern and central Plains, with a pre-frontal trough roughly from MN into MO and southwestward into OK. Given the southeastern surface high, moisture return will be limited ahead of the Plains feature. However, cooling aloft and steepening of lapse rates, as well as lift will allow for elevated instability to develop into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms overnight. Weak instability should preclude any severe threat. ..Jewell.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will depart the East Coast Saturday night, with a surface high settling over the Southeast on Sunday. To the west, a shortwave trough will move east out of MT and toward the upper MS Valley by Monday morning. A cold front in association with this trough will quickly push across the northern and central Plains, with a pre-frontal trough roughly from MN into MO and southwestward into OK. Given the southeastern surface high, moisture return will be limited ahead of the Plains feature. However, cooling aloft and steepening of lapse rates, as well as lift will allow for elevated instability to develop into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms overnight. Weak instability should preclude any severe threat. ..Jewell.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will depart the East Coast Saturday night, with a surface high settling over the Southeast on Sunday. To the west, a shortwave trough will move east out of MT and toward the upper MS Valley by Monday morning. A cold front in association with this trough will quickly push across the northern and central Plains, with a pre-frontal trough roughly from MN into MO and southwestward into OK. Given the southeastern surface high, moisture return will be limited ahead of the Plains feature. However, cooling aloft and steepening of lapse rates, as well as lift will allow for elevated instability to develop into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms overnight. Weak instability should preclude any severe threat. ..Jewell.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will depart the East Coast Saturday night, with a surface high settling over the Southeast on Sunday. To the west, a shortwave trough will move east out of MT and toward the upper MS Valley by Monday morning. A cold front in association with this trough will quickly push across the northern and central Plains, with a pre-frontal trough roughly from MN into MO and southwestward into OK. Given the southeastern surface high, moisture return will be limited ahead of the Plains feature. However, cooling aloft and steepening of lapse rates, as well as lift will allow for elevated instability to develop into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms overnight. Weak instability should preclude any severe threat. ..Jewell.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will depart the East Coast Saturday night, with a surface high settling over the Southeast on Sunday. To the west, a shortwave trough will move east out of MT and toward the upper MS Valley by Monday morning. A cold front in association with this trough will quickly push across the northern and central Plains, with a pre-frontal trough roughly from MN into MO and southwestward into OK. Given the southeastern surface high, moisture return will be limited ahead of the Plains feature. However, cooling aloft and steepening of lapse rates, as well as lift will allow for elevated instability to develop into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms overnight. Weak instability should preclude any severe threat. ..Jewell.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The current forecast remains on track, with minor changes to the Critical area in southwest Kansas in order to reflect current forecast guidance. See the previous discussion below for further detail. ..Halbert.. 04/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... With an upper-level trough approaching the northern/central Rockies today, a surface low will deepen in the central Plains. Dry and windy conditions will extend from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. Dry, down-peninsula winds behind a cold front will increase fire danger in parts of central/southern Florida. ...Southwest into southern/central High Plains... A broad area of 15-25 mph winds will be possible in these regions. The higher wind speeds will primarily occur within the higher terrain of the Southwest into the central/southern Rockies. The upper-level trough will be displaced farther northward and shortwave ridging aloft will keep wind speeds modest to moderate. Winds will be driven be the deepening central Plains surface cyclone. RH in some locations could reach into the single digits. More broadly, 10-20% is expected. Critical fire weather is most likely in the Raton Mesa vicinity where surface winds west of the surface trough will be around 20 mph for a longer duration. Elsewhere, elevated conditions are expected. ...Florida... RH during the afternoon will likely fall to 20-30% in parts of central/southern Florida. Winds will not be overly strong, but a broad area of near 10 mph appears probable. Dry fuels will support elevated fire weather. ...Central Plains... With the low-level jet expected to maintain some intensity into the afternoon, gusty southerly winds will persist through the afternoon. Moisture return will occur, but Friday night observed dewpoints in the southern Plains would at least suggest some drier conditions are probable on the western/northern flanks of the initial return flow. Stronger winds will extend eastward, but confidence in more than a locally elevated threat farther east is low. Areas of sustained winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 15-25% will be possible from western Kansas into central/eastern Nebraska. Dry grasses will support an increase risk of fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more