Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z The forecast period will begin with an strong shortwave trough over the eastern half of the CONUS, with general ridging over the western half of CONUS. Additionally, fuels in the southwestern CONUS and into the High Plains should be receptive to fire spread throughout the week. A small jet streak should be embedded in the mid-level flow on Day 3/Tuesday across portions of the Southwest, and some of that flow may get mixed downward to the surface under strong surface heating across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. This may provide some fire weather risk across this region, and the 40% area has been maintained in this outlook to reflect that. By Day 4/Wednesday, the pattern shifts eastward, with troughing developing over the western parts of the CONUS and ridging over the central CONUS. The surface low pressure area associated with the mid-level troughing is expected to provide additional dry and breezy conditions across parts of New Mexico and Arizona. As such, the 40% area has been expanded to reflect this. By Day 5/Thursday, troughing becomes established over the western CONUS with lee troughing underway across the High Plains. This feature should provide additional fire weather risk across portions of the High Plains. The 40% area has been expanded, and a 70% area has been added where the highest confidence in Critical fire weather conditions overlaps with dry fuels. This pattern continues on Day 6/Friday, and a 40% area has been added across parts of New Mexico where the highest confidence in dry and breezy conditions is currently expected. Areas on both day 5 and 6 may need to be expanded eastward in subsequent outlooks. Beyond Day 6, continued dry and windy conditions are possible, however predictability deteriorates such that additional highlights are withheld pending later outlooks. ..Supinie.. 04/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z The forecast period will begin with an strong shortwave trough over the eastern half of the CONUS, with general ridging over the western half of CONUS. Additionally, fuels in the southwestern CONUS and into the High Plains should be receptive to fire spread throughout the week. A small jet streak should be embedded in the mid-level flow on Day 3/Tuesday across portions of the Southwest, and some of that flow may get mixed downward to the surface under strong surface heating across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. This may provide some fire weather risk across this region, and the 40% area has been maintained in this outlook to reflect that. By Day 4/Wednesday, the pattern shifts eastward, with troughing developing over the western parts of the CONUS and ridging over the central CONUS. The surface low pressure area associated with the mid-level troughing is expected to provide additional dry and breezy conditions across parts of New Mexico and Arizona. As such, the 40% area has been expanded to reflect this. By Day 5/Thursday, troughing becomes established over the western CONUS with lee troughing underway across the High Plains. This feature should provide additional fire weather risk across portions of the High Plains. The 40% area has been expanded, and a 70% area has been added where the highest confidence in Critical fire weather conditions overlaps with dry fuels. This pattern continues on Day 6/Friday, and a 40% area has been added across parts of New Mexico where the highest confidence in dry and breezy conditions is currently expected. Areas on both day 5 and 6 may need to be expanded eastward in subsequent outlooks. Beyond Day 6, continued dry and windy conditions are possible, however predictability deteriorates such that additional highlights are withheld pending later outlooks. ..Supinie.. 04/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z The forecast period will begin with an strong shortwave trough over the eastern half of the CONUS, with general ridging over the western half of CONUS. Additionally, fuels in the southwestern CONUS and into the High Plains should be receptive to fire spread throughout the week. A small jet streak should be embedded in the mid-level flow on Day 3/Tuesday across portions of the Southwest, and some of that flow may get mixed downward to the surface under strong surface heating across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. This may provide some fire weather risk across this region, and the 40% area has been maintained in this outlook to reflect that. By Day 4/Wednesday, the pattern shifts eastward, with troughing developing over the western parts of the CONUS and ridging over the central CONUS. The surface low pressure area associated with the mid-level troughing is expected to provide additional dry and breezy conditions across parts of New Mexico and Arizona. As such, the 40% area has been expanded to reflect this. By Day 5/Thursday, troughing becomes established over the western CONUS with lee troughing underway across the High Plains. This feature should provide additional fire weather risk across portions of the High Plains. The 40% area has been expanded, and a 70% area has been added where the highest confidence in Critical fire weather conditions overlaps with dry fuels. This pattern continues on Day 6/Friday, and a 40% area has been added across parts of New Mexico where the highest confidence in dry and breezy conditions is currently expected. Areas on both day 5 and 6 may need to be expanded eastward in subsequent outlooks. Beyond Day 6, continued dry and windy conditions are possible, however predictability deteriorates such that additional highlights are withheld pending later outlooks. ..Supinie.. 04/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z The forecast period will begin with an strong shortwave trough over the eastern half of the CONUS, with general ridging over the western half of CONUS. Additionally, fuels in the southwestern CONUS and into the High Plains should be receptive to fire spread throughout the week. A small jet streak should be embedded in the mid-level flow on Day 3/Tuesday across portions of the Southwest, and some of that flow may get mixed downward to the surface under strong surface heating across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. This may provide some fire weather risk across this region, and the 40% area has been maintained in this outlook to reflect that. By Day 4/Wednesday, the pattern shifts eastward, with troughing developing over the western parts of the CONUS and ridging over the central CONUS. The surface low pressure area associated with the mid-level troughing is expected to provide additional dry and breezy conditions across parts of New Mexico and Arizona. As such, the 40% area has been expanded to reflect this. By Day 5/Thursday, troughing becomes established over the western CONUS with lee troughing underway across the High Plains. This feature should provide additional fire weather risk across portions of the High Plains. The 40% area has been expanded, and a 70% area has been added where the highest confidence in Critical fire weather conditions overlaps with dry fuels. This pattern continues on Day 6/Friday, and a 40% area has been added across parts of New Mexico where the highest confidence in dry and breezy conditions is currently expected. Areas on both day 5 and 6 may need to be expanded eastward in subsequent outlooks. Beyond Day 6, continued dry and windy conditions are possible, however predictability deteriorates such that additional highlights are withheld pending later outlooks. ..Supinie.. 04/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes, and from the central Rockies to the lower Missouri Valley through tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minimal changes to the western edge of the Thunder area. Isolated thunderstorms ongoing over parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes should spread eastward through tonight. Additional elevated thunderstorms will remain possible across the OH Valley and Midwest as the low-level jet increases overnight. Given limited moisture, instability is forecast to remain too weak to support a severe threat. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest by late tonight, as a surface low develops northeastward from eastern NE/KS to the upper Great Lakes. Limited low-level moisture return will continue through the period within the warm sector of this cyclone. But, sufficient ascent/saturation will likely remain confined to near the IA/MN border this afternoon, where elevated thunderstorms are ongoing. Some small hail may occur with this activity. This elevated convection is expected to spread eastward over WI and parts of Lower MI through the late evening. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into early evening along a southward-moving cold front across CO, and overnight into MO where moistening and weak ascent atop the front (near/above 700 mb) could support elevated convection by 09-12z. Across all these areas, instability is forecast to remain too weak to support organized severe thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes, and from the central Rockies to the lower Missouri Valley through tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minimal changes to the western edge of the Thunder area. Isolated thunderstorms ongoing over parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes should spread eastward through tonight. Additional elevated thunderstorms will remain possible across the OH Valley and Midwest as the low-level jet increases overnight. Given limited moisture, instability is forecast to remain too weak to support a severe threat. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest by late tonight, as a surface low develops northeastward from eastern NE/KS to the upper Great Lakes. Limited low-level moisture return will continue through the period within the warm sector of this cyclone. But, sufficient ascent/saturation will likely remain confined to near the IA/MN border this afternoon, where elevated thunderstorms are ongoing. Some small hail may occur with this activity. This elevated convection is expected to spread eastward over WI and parts of Lower MI through the late evening. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into early evening along a southward-moving cold front across CO, and overnight into MO where moistening and weak ascent atop the front (near/above 700 mb) could support elevated convection by 09-12z. Across all these areas, instability is forecast to remain too weak to support organized severe thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes, and from the central Rockies to the lower Missouri Valley through tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minimal changes to the western edge of the Thunder area. Isolated thunderstorms ongoing over parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes should spread eastward through tonight. Additional elevated thunderstorms will remain possible across the OH Valley and Midwest as the low-level jet increases overnight. Given limited moisture, instability is forecast to remain too weak to support a severe threat. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest by late tonight, as a surface low develops northeastward from eastern NE/KS to the upper Great Lakes. Limited low-level moisture return will continue through the period within the warm sector of this cyclone. But, sufficient ascent/saturation will likely remain confined to near the IA/MN border this afternoon, where elevated thunderstorms are ongoing. Some small hail may occur with this activity. This elevated convection is expected to spread eastward over WI and parts of Lower MI through the late evening. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into early evening along a southward-moving cold front across CO, and overnight into MO where moistening and weak ascent atop the front (near/above 700 mb) could support elevated convection by 09-12z. Across all these areas, instability is forecast to remain too weak to support organized severe thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes, and from the central Rockies to the lower Missouri Valley through tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minimal changes to the western edge of the Thunder area. Isolated thunderstorms ongoing over parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes should spread eastward through tonight. Additional elevated thunderstorms will remain possible across the OH Valley and Midwest as the low-level jet increases overnight. Given limited moisture, instability is forecast to remain too weak to support a severe threat. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest by late tonight, as a surface low develops northeastward from eastern NE/KS to the upper Great Lakes. Limited low-level moisture return will continue through the period within the warm sector of this cyclone. But, sufficient ascent/saturation will likely remain confined to near the IA/MN border this afternoon, where elevated thunderstorms are ongoing. Some small hail may occur with this activity. This elevated convection is expected to spread eastward over WI and parts of Lower MI through the late evening. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into early evening along a southward-moving cold front across CO, and overnight into MO where moistening and weak ascent atop the front (near/above 700 mb) could support elevated convection by 09-12z. Across all these areas, instability is forecast to remain too weak to support organized severe thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes, and from the central Rockies to the lower Missouri Valley through tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minimal changes to the western edge of the Thunder area. Isolated thunderstorms ongoing over parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes should spread eastward through tonight. Additional elevated thunderstorms will remain possible across the OH Valley and Midwest as the low-level jet increases overnight. Given limited moisture, instability is forecast to remain too weak to support a severe threat. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest by late tonight, as a surface low develops northeastward from eastern NE/KS to the upper Great Lakes. Limited low-level moisture return will continue through the period within the warm sector of this cyclone. But, sufficient ascent/saturation will likely remain confined to near the IA/MN border this afternoon, where elevated thunderstorms are ongoing. Some small hail may occur with this activity. This elevated convection is expected to spread eastward over WI and parts of Lower MI through the late evening. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into early evening along a southward-moving cold front across CO, and overnight into MO where moistening and weak ascent atop the front (near/above 700 mb) could support elevated convection by 09-12z. Across all these areas, instability is forecast to remain too weak to support organized severe thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes, and from the central Rockies to the lower Missouri Valley through tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minimal changes to the western edge of the Thunder area. Isolated thunderstorms ongoing over parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes should spread eastward through tonight. Additional elevated thunderstorms will remain possible across the OH Valley and Midwest as the low-level jet increases overnight. Given limited moisture, instability is forecast to remain too weak to support a severe threat. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest by late tonight, as a surface low develops northeastward from eastern NE/KS to the upper Great Lakes. Limited low-level moisture return will continue through the period within the warm sector of this cyclone. But, sufficient ascent/saturation will likely remain confined to near the IA/MN border this afternoon, where elevated thunderstorms are ongoing. Some small hail may occur with this activity. This elevated convection is expected to spread eastward over WI and parts of Lower MI through the late evening. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into early evening along a southward-moving cold front across CO, and overnight into MO where moistening and weak ascent atop the front (near/above 700 mb) could support elevated convection by 09-12z. Across all these areas, instability is forecast to remain too weak to support organized severe thunderstorms. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z In this morning's 12Z guidance, a drying trend was noted across portions of eastern Nebraska, bringing expected RH into the 20-25% range. Also, fuels in this region have not yet greened up and are therefore still relatively dry. Therefore, have brought the Elevated fire highlight eastward towards the Missouri River. Additionally, strong winds (gusts to 25-30 mph) may occur across portions of South Carolina tomorrow afternoon. However, RH is currently expected to be a bit too high to support an Elevated fire risk, likely 30-35%, though brief, localized areas of 25-30% RH are possible. Furthermore, fuels are probably not receptive to fire spread, given recent rainfall. Therefore, have not introduced any highlights on this outlook. Beyond these two areas, the forecast is on track. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 04/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... The Upper Midwest upper trough will broaden and intensify as it moves eastward into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Monday. A cold front will continue south and east, pushing into the northern Gulf. Strong post-frontal winds at the surface and aloft will continue on the western flank of the upper trough. ...Southwest South Dakota into central Kansas... Strong northwesterly winds will persist across much of the Plains during the morning and early afternoon. Winds just above the surface will also maintain some intensity into the afternoon, promoting stronger gusts as well. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph appear most probable. Winds will tend to gradually weaken mid/late afternoon as surface low moves farther east and the surface high weakens to the west. RH of 20-30% will occur, with the lowest values expected farther south and west. There has been some tendency for guidance to shift the area of elevated fire weather risk farther south/west. The elevated area has been shifted accordingly. Strong winds will still occur near the Missouri River, but RH is expected to be much higher. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z In this morning's 12Z guidance, a drying trend was noted across portions of eastern Nebraska, bringing expected RH into the 20-25% range. Also, fuels in this region have not yet greened up and are therefore still relatively dry. Therefore, have brought the Elevated fire highlight eastward towards the Missouri River. Additionally, strong winds (gusts to 25-30 mph) may occur across portions of South Carolina tomorrow afternoon. However, RH is currently expected to be a bit too high to support an Elevated fire risk, likely 30-35%, though brief, localized areas of 25-30% RH are possible. Furthermore, fuels are probably not receptive to fire spread, given recent rainfall. Therefore, have not introduced any highlights on this outlook. Beyond these two areas, the forecast is on track. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 04/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... The Upper Midwest upper trough will broaden and intensify as it moves eastward into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Monday. A cold front will continue south and east, pushing into the northern Gulf. Strong post-frontal winds at the surface and aloft will continue on the western flank of the upper trough. ...Southwest South Dakota into central Kansas... Strong northwesterly winds will persist across much of the Plains during the morning and early afternoon. Winds just above the surface will also maintain some intensity into the afternoon, promoting stronger gusts as well. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph appear most probable. Winds will tend to gradually weaken mid/late afternoon as surface low moves farther east and the surface high weakens to the west. RH of 20-30% will occur, with the lowest values expected farther south and west. There has been some tendency for guidance to shift the area of elevated fire weather risk farther south/west. The elevated area has been shifted accordingly. Strong winds will still occur near the Missouri River, but RH is expected to be much higher. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z In this morning's 12Z guidance, a drying trend was noted across portions of eastern Nebraska, bringing expected RH into the 20-25% range. Also, fuels in this region have not yet greened up and are therefore still relatively dry. Therefore, have brought the Elevated fire highlight eastward towards the Missouri River. Additionally, strong winds (gusts to 25-30 mph) may occur across portions of South Carolina tomorrow afternoon. However, RH is currently expected to be a bit too high to support an Elevated fire risk, likely 30-35%, though brief, localized areas of 25-30% RH are possible. Furthermore, fuels are probably not receptive to fire spread, given recent rainfall. Therefore, have not introduced any highlights on this outlook. Beyond these two areas, the forecast is on track. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 04/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... The Upper Midwest upper trough will broaden and intensify as it moves eastward into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Monday. A cold front will continue south and east, pushing into the northern Gulf. Strong post-frontal winds at the surface and aloft will continue on the western flank of the upper trough. ...Southwest South Dakota into central Kansas... Strong northwesterly winds will persist across much of the Plains during the morning and early afternoon. Winds just above the surface will also maintain some intensity into the afternoon, promoting stronger gusts as well. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph appear most probable. Winds will tend to gradually weaken mid/late afternoon as surface low moves farther east and the surface high weakens to the west. RH of 20-30% will occur, with the lowest values expected farther south and west. There has been some tendency for guidance to shift the area of elevated fire weather risk farther south/west. The elevated area has been shifted accordingly. Strong winds will still occur near the Missouri River, but RH is expected to be much higher. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z In this morning's 12Z guidance, a drying trend was noted across portions of eastern Nebraska, bringing expected RH into the 20-25% range. Also, fuels in this region have not yet greened up and are therefore still relatively dry. Therefore, have brought the Elevated fire highlight eastward towards the Missouri River. Additionally, strong winds (gusts to 25-30 mph) may occur across portions of South Carolina tomorrow afternoon. However, RH is currently expected to be a bit too high to support an Elevated fire risk, likely 30-35%, though brief, localized areas of 25-30% RH are possible. Furthermore, fuels are probably not receptive to fire spread, given recent rainfall. Therefore, have not introduced any highlights on this outlook. Beyond these two areas, the forecast is on track. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 04/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... The Upper Midwest upper trough will broaden and intensify as it moves eastward into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Monday. A cold front will continue south and east, pushing into the northern Gulf. Strong post-frontal winds at the surface and aloft will continue on the western flank of the upper trough. ...Southwest South Dakota into central Kansas... Strong northwesterly winds will persist across much of the Plains during the morning and early afternoon. Winds just above the surface will also maintain some intensity into the afternoon, promoting stronger gusts as well. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph appear most probable. Winds will tend to gradually weaken mid/late afternoon as surface low moves farther east and the surface high weakens to the west. RH of 20-30% will occur, with the lowest values expected farther south and west. There has been some tendency for guidance to shift the area of elevated fire weather risk farther south/west. The elevated area has been shifted accordingly. Strong winds will still occur near the Missouri River, but RH is expected to be much higher. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z In this morning's 12Z guidance, a drying trend was noted across portions of eastern Nebraska, bringing expected RH into the 20-25% range. Also, fuels in this region have not yet greened up and are therefore still relatively dry. Therefore, have brought the Elevated fire highlight eastward towards the Missouri River. Additionally, strong winds (gusts to 25-30 mph) may occur across portions of South Carolina tomorrow afternoon. However, RH is currently expected to be a bit too high to support an Elevated fire risk, likely 30-35%, though brief, localized areas of 25-30% RH are possible. Furthermore, fuels are probably not receptive to fire spread, given recent rainfall. Therefore, have not introduced any highlights on this outlook. Beyond these two areas, the forecast is on track. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 04/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... The Upper Midwest upper trough will broaden and intensify as it moves eastward into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Monday. A cold front will continue south and east, pushing into the northern Gulf. Strong post-frontal winds at the surface and aloft will continue on the western flank of the upper trough. ...Southwest South Dakota into central Kansas... Strong northwesterly winds will persist across much of the Plains during the morning and early afternoon. Winds just above the surface will also maintain some intensity into the afternoon, promoting stronger gusts as well. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph appear most probable. Winds will tend to gradually weaken mid/late afternoon as surface low moves farther east and the surface high weakens to the west. RH of 20-30% will occur, with the lowest values expected farther south and west. There has been some tendency for guidance to shift the area of elevated fire weather risk farther south/west. The elevated area has been shifted accordingly. Strong winds will still occur near the Missouri River, but RH is expected to be much higher. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z In this morning's 12Z guidance, a drying trend was noted across portions of eastern Nebraska, bringing expected RH into the 20-25% range. Also, fuels in this region have not yet greened up and are therefore still relatively dry. Therefore, have brought the Elevated fire highlight eastward towards the Missouri River. Additionally, strong winds (gusts to 25-30 mph) may occur across portions of South Carolina tomorrow afternoon. However, RH is currently expected to be a bit too high to support an Elevated fire risk, likely 30-35%, though brief, localized areas of 25-30% RH are possible. Furthermore, fuels are probably not receptive to fire spread, given recent rainfall. Therefore, have not introduced any highlights on this outlook. Beyond these two areas, the forecast is on track. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 04/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... The Upper Midwest upper trough will broaden and intensify as it moves eastward into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Monday. A cold front will continue south and east, pushing into the northern Gulf. Strong post-frontal winds at the surface and aloft will continue on the western flank of the upper trough. ...Southwest South Dakota into central Kansas... Strong northwesterly winds will persist across much of the Plains during the morning and early afternoon. Winds just above the surface will also maintain some intensity into the afternoon, promoting stronger gusts as well. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph appear most probable. Winds will tend to gradually weaken mid/late afternoon as surface low moves farther east and the surface high weakens to the west. RH of 20-30% will occur, with the lowest values expected farther south and west. There has been some tendency for guidance to shift the area of elevated fire weather risk farther south/west. The elevated area has been shifted accordingly. Strong winds will still occur near the Missouri River, but RH is expected to be much higher. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will move rapidly eastward from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, with a surface high pushing into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. The drying behind this system will significantly reduce thunderstorm chances over much of the CONUS on Tuesday. A very low chance of early day convection may exist over far eastern NC, and over eastern New England as elevated moisture wraps northwestward toward the low. Elsewhere, isolated general thunderstorms may occur during the afternoon over the Sierra, and into parts of western CO in association with midlevel moisture and cool temperatures aloft. ..Jewell.. 04/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will move rapidly eastward from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, with a surface high pushing into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. The drying behind this system will significantly reduce thunderstorm chances over much of the CONUS on Tuesday. A very low chance of early day convection may exist over far eastern NC, and over eastern New England as elevated moisture wraps northwestward toward the low. Elsewhere, isolated general thunderstorms may occur during the afternoon over the Sierra, and into parts of western CO in association with midlevel moisture and cool temperatures aloft. ..Jewell.. 04/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will move rapidly eastward from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, with a surface high pushing into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. The drying behind this system will significantly reduce thunderstorm chances over much of the CONUS on Tuesday. A very low chance of early day convection may exist over far eastern NC, and over eastern New England as elevated moisture wraps northwestward toward the low. Elsewhere, isolated general thunderstorms may occur during the afternoon over the Sierra, and into parts of western CO in association with midlevel moisture and cool temperatures aloft. ..Jewell.. 04/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will move rapidly eastward from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, with a surface high pushing into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. The drying behind this system will significantly reduce thunderstorm chances over much of the CONUS on Tuesday. A very low chance of early day convection may exist over far eastern NC, and over eastern New England as elevated moisture wraps northwestward toward the low. Elsewhere, isolated general thunderstorms may occur during the afternoon over the Sierra, and into parts of western CO in association with midlevel moisture and cool temperatures aloft. ..Jewell.. 04/13/2025 Read more