Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are expected in the wake of a cold front across the northern/central Plains today. These strong winds will persist into at least early afternoon. Thereafter, winds will steadily diminish. Despite a tendency for cooler temperatures to filter into the region, modest downslope flow and surface heating should allow temperatures to remain in the 50s/low 60s F. RH values of 20-30% are probable. Winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The most favorable overlap of these conditions are expected in parts of far southwest South Dakota, Nebraska, and far northern Kansas. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur for a few hours this afternoon. Models have quite a bit variance in the location and duration of sustained critical conditions. This is likely due to uncertainties in low/mid-level clouds that will eventually move into Nebraska. This precludes the addition of the critical highlight at this time. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are expected in the wake of a cold front across the northern/central Plains today. These strong winds will persist into at least early afternoon. Thereafter, winds will steadily diminish. Despite a tendency for cooler temperatures to filter into the region, modest downslope flow and surface heating should allow temperatures to remain in the 50s/low 60s F. RH values of 20-30% are probable. Winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The most favorable overlap of these conditions are expected in parts of far southwest South Dakota, Nebraska, and far northern Kansas. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur for a few hours this afternoon. Models have quite a bit variance in the location and duration of sustained critical conditions. This is likely due to uncertainties in low/mid-level clouds that will eventually move into Nebraska. This precludes the addition of the critical highlight at this time. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are expected in the wake of a cold front across the northern/central Plains today. These strong winds will persist into at least early afternoon. Thereafter, winds will steadily diminish. Despite a tendency for cooler temperatures to filter into the region, modest downslope flow and surface heating should allow temperatures to remain in the 50s/low 60s F. RH values of 20-30% are probable. Winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The most favorable overlap of these conditions are expected in parts of far southwest South Dakota, Nebraska, and far northern Kansas. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur for a few hours this afternoon. Models have quite a bit variance in the location and duration of sustained critical conditions. This is likely due to uncertainties in low/mid-level clouds that will eventually move into Nebraska. This precludes the addition of the critical highlight at this time. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are expected in the wake of a cold front across the northern/central Plains today. These strong winds will persist into at least early afternoon. Thereafter, winds will steadily diminish. Despite a tendency for cooler temperatures to filter into the region, modest downslope flow and surface heating should allow temperatures to remain in the 50s/low 60s F. RH values of 20-30% are probable. Winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The most favorable overlap of these conditions are expected in parts of far southwest South Dakota, Nebraska, and far northern Kansas. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur for a few hours this afternoon. Models have quite a bit variance in the location and duration of sustained critical conditions. This is likely due to uncertainties in low/mid-level clouds that will eventually move into Nebraska. This precludes the addition of the critical highlight at this time. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Northeast... Sporadic, low-topped thunderstorms may develop towards midday through the afternoon within a post-frontal regime as 500-mb temperatures fall at/below -28 C. This should occur to the west of an intense mid-level jet that will progress quickly across the Mid-Atlantic States and off the coast by evening. While the boundary layer will be drying, scant buoyancy may persist where mid-level lapse rates abruptly steepen. Much of the convection will probably remain as scattered showers, with thunderstorm coverage expected to be very isolated. Locally strong gusts could accompany this weak convection at peak heating across southern New England. ...Southwest... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should dampen as it moves from the Lower CO Valley towards the southern Rockies. But adequate large-scale ascent coupled with scant buoyancy should yield isolated thunderstorms, mainly on Tuesday afternoon. Farther west, a separate shortwave trough will approach but remain offshore of the CA coast. Greater but still weak buoyancy from the Sierra NV Mountains across northern CA may support isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Weak deep-layer shear/ascent will minimize severe potential. ..Grams.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Northeast... Sporadic, low-topped thunderstorms may develop towards midday through the afternoon within a post-frontal regime as 500-mb temperatures fall at/below -28 C. This should occur to the west of an intense mid-level jet that will progress quickly across the Mid-Atlantic States and off the coast by evening. While the boundary layer will be drying, scant buoyancy may persist where mid-level lapse rates abruptly steepen. Much of the convection will probably remain as scattered showers, with thunderstorm coverage expected to be very isolated. Locally strong gusts could accompany this weak convection at peak heating across southern New England. ...Southwest... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should dampen as it moves from the Lower CO Valley towards the southern Rockies. But adequate large-scale ascent coupled with scant buoyancy should yield isolated thunderstorms, mainly on Tuesday afternoon. Farther west, a separate shortwave trough will approach but remain offshore of the CA coast. Greater but still weak buoyancy from the Sierra NV Mountains across northern CA may support isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Weak deep-layer shear/ascent will minimize severe potential. ..Grams.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Northeast... Sporadic, low-topped thunderstorms may develop towards midday through the afternoon within a post-frontal regime as 500-mb temperatures fall at/below -28 C. This should occur to the west of an intense mid-level jet that will progress quickly across the Mid-Atlantic States and off the coast by evening. While the boundary layer will be drying, scant buoyancy may persist where mid-level lapse rates abruptly steepen. Much of the convection will probably remain as scattered showers, with thunderstorm coverage expected to be very isolated. Locally strong gusts could accompany this weak convection at peak heating across southern New England. ...Southwest... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should dampen as it moves from the Lower CO Valley towards the southern Rockies. But adequate large-scale ascent coupled with scant buoyancy should yield isolated thunderstorms, mainly on Tuesday afternoon. Farther west, a separate shortwave trough will approach but remain offshore of the CA coast. Greater but still weak buoyancy from the Sierra NV Mountains across northern CA may support isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Weak deep-layer shear/ascent will minimize severe potential. ..Grams.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Northeast... Sporadic, low-topped thunderstorms may develop towards midday through the afternoon within a post-frontal regime as 500-mb temperatures fall at/below -28 C. This should occur to the west of an intense mid-level jet that will progress quickly across the Mid-Atlantic States and off the coast by evening. While the boundary layer will be drying, scant buoyancy may persist where mid-level lapse rates abruptly steepen. Much of the convection will probably remain as scattered showers, with thunderstorm coverage expected to be very isolated. Locally strong gusts could accompany this weak convection at peak heating across southern New England. ...Southwest... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should dampen as it moves from the Lower CO Valley towards the southern Rockies. But adequate large-scale ascent coupled with scant buoyancy should yield isolated thunderstorms, mainly on Tuesday afternoon. Farther west, a separate shortwave trough will approach but remain offshore of the CA coast. Greater but still weak buoyancy from the Sierra NV Mountains across northern CA may support isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Weak deep-layer shear/ascent will minimize severe potential. ..Grams.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Northeast... Sporadic, low-topped thunderstorms may develop towards midday through the afternoon within a post-frontal regime as 500-mb temperatures fall at/below -28 C. This should occur to the west of an intense mid-level jet that will progress quickly across the Mid-Atlantic States and off the coast by evening. While the boundary layer will be drying, scant buoyancy may persist where mid-level lapse rates abruptly steepen. Much of the convection will probably remain as scattered showers, with thunderstorm coverage expected to be very isolated. Locally strong gusts could accompany this weak convection at peak heating across southern New England. ...Southwest... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should dampen as it moves from the Lower CO Valley towards the southern Rockies. But adequate large-scale ascent coupled with scant buoyancy should yield isolated thunderstorms, mainly on Tuesday afternoon. Farther west, a separate shortwave trough will approach but remain offshore of the CA coast. Greater but still weak buoyancy from the Sierra NV Mountains across northern CA may support isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Weak deep-layer shear/ascent will minimize severe potential. ..Grams.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat will be possible. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... At mid-levels, a positively-tilted trough will move through the northern Plains as a low moves northeastward into Ontario. Heights will fall today from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a ridge moves into the western Atlantic. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will develop in the lee of the Appalachians, as a cold front advances southeastward through the lower Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will advect northeastward into Kentucky, southern Ohio and West Virginia. As instability increases along this corridor, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon from near the front eastward along the northern edge of the instability gradient. Multiple relatively small clusters of storms are expected to form and move eastward into the central Appalachians. An 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet will move across the central Plains today, as the exit region of the jet overspreads the Ohio Valley. Lift and strong deep-layer shear associated with the exit region of the jet will support strong to severe thunderstorm development this afternoon. Forecast soundings this afternoon from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 65 knot range. This will support a severe threat, associated with isolated supercells and short bowing line segments. Large hail will be most likely with supercells. In addition, low-level flow is forecast to steadily increase in the late afternoon and early evening near the moist axis. This will create strong low-level shear favorable for a tornado threat. The tornado threat is expected to be the greatest from far northeast Kentucky into parts of West Virginia, where 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to reach the 200 to 350 m2/s2 range. Supercells and short bowing line segments will also be capable of producing wind damage. During the early to mid evening, the severe threat is expected to spread eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, where severe gusts and isolated large hail will also be possible. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat will be possible. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... At mid-levels, a positively-tilted trough will move through the northern Plains as a low moves northeastward into Ontario. Heights will fall today from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a ridge moves into the western Atlantic. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will develop in the lee of the Appalachians, as a cold front advances southeastward through the lower Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will advect northeastward into Kentucky, southern Ohio and West Virginia. As instability increases along this corridor, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon from near the front eastward along the northern edge of the instability gradient. Multiple relatively small clusters of storms are expected to form and move eastward into the central Appalachians. An 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet will move across the central Plains today, as the exit region of the jet overspreads the Ohio Valley. Lift and strong deep-layer shear associated with the exit region of the jet will support strong to severe thunderstorm development this afternoon. Forecast soundings this afternoon from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 65 knot range. This will support a severe threat, associated with isolated supercells and short bowing line segments. Large hail will be most likely with supercells. In addition, low-level flow is forecast to steadily increase in the late afternoon and early evening near the moist axis. This will create strong low-level shear favorable for a tornado threat. The tornado threat is expected to be the greatest from far northeast Kentucky into parts of West Virginia, where 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to reach the 200 to 350 m2/s2 range. Supercells and short bowing line segments will also be capable of producing wind damage. During the early to mid evening, the severe threat is expected to spread eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, where severe gusts and isolated large hail will also be possible. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat will be possible. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... At mid-levels, a positively-tilted trough will move through the northern Plains as a low moves northeastward into Ontario. Heights will fall today from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a ridge moves into the western Atlantic. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will develop in the lee of the Appalachians, as a cold front advances southeastward through the lower Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will advect northeastward into Kentucky, southern Ohio and West Virginia. As instability increases along this corridor, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon from near the front eastward along the northern edge of the instability gradient. Multiple relatively small clusters of storms are expected to form and move eastward into the central Appalachians. An 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet will move across the central Plains today, as the exit region of the jet overspreads the Ohio Valley. Lift and strong deep-layer shear associated with the exit region of the jet will support strong to severe thunderstorm development this afternoon. Forecast soundings this afternoon from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 65 knot range. This will support a severe threat, associated with isolated supercells and short bowing line segments. Large hail will be most likely with supercells. In addition, low-level flow is forecast to steadily increase in the late afternoon and early evening near the moist axis. This will create strong low-level shear favorable for a tornado threat. The tornado threat is expected to be the greatest from far northeast Kentucky into parts of West Virginia, where 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to reach the 200 to 350 m2/s2 range. Supercells and short bowing line segments will also be capable of producing wind damage. During the early to mid evening, the severe threat is expected to spread eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, where severe gusts and isolated large hail will also be possible. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat will be possible. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... At mid-levels, a positively-tilted trough will move through the northern Plains as a low moves northeastward into Ontario. Heights will fall today from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a ridge moves into the western Atlantic. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will develop in the lee of the Appalachians, as a cold front advances southeastward through the lower Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will advect northeastward into Kentucky, southern Ohio and West Virginia. As instability increases along this corridor, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon from near the front eastward along the northern edge of the instability gradient. Multiple relatively small clusters of storms are expected to form and move eastward into the central Appalachians. An 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet will move across the central Plains today, as the exit region of the jet overspreads the Ohio Valley. Lift and strong deep-layer shear associated with the exit region of the jet will support strong to severe thunderstorm development this afternoon. Forecast soundings this afternoon from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 65 knot range. This will support a severe threat, associated with isolated supercells and short bowing line segments. Large hail will be most likely with supercells. In addition, low-level flow is forecast to steadily increase in the late afternoon and early evening near the moist axis. This will create strong low-level shear favorable for a tornado threat. The tornado threat is expected to be the greatest from far northeast Kentucky into parts of West Virginia, where 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to reach the 200 to 350 m2/s2 range. Supercells and short bowing line segments will also be capable of producing wind damage. During the early to mid evening, the severe threat is expected to spread eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, where severe gusts and isolated large hail will also be possible. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat will be possible. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... At mid-levels, a positively-tilted trough will move through the northern Plains as a low moves northeastward into Ontario. Heights will fall today from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a ridge moves into the western Atlantic. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will develop in the lee of the Appalachians, as a cold front advances southeastward through the lower Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will advect northeastward into Kentucky, southern Ohio and West Virginia. As instability increases along this corridor, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon from near the front eastward along the northern edge of the instability gradient. Multiple relatively small clusters of storms are expected to form and move eastward into the central Appalachians. An 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet will move across the central Plains today, as the exit region of the jet overspreads the Ohio Valley. Lift and strong deep-layer shear associated with the exit region of the jet will support strong to severe thunderstorm development this afternoon. Forecast soundings this afternoon from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 65 knot range. This will support a severe threat, associated with isolated supercells and short bowing line segments. Large hail will be most likely with supercells. In addition, low-level flow is forecast to steadily increase in the late afternoon and early evening near the moist axis. This will create strong low-level shear favorable for a tornado threat. The tornado threat is expected to be the greatest from far northeast Kentucky into parts of West Virginia, where 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to reach the 200 to 350 m2/s2 range. Supercells and short bowing line segments will also be capable of producing wind damage. During the early to mid evening, the severe threat is expected to spread eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, where severe gusts and isolated large hail will also be possible. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening into the overnight across parts of the northwestern Great Lakes. Isolated storms may also develop this evening in parts of the northern Plains and central High Plains. ...DISCUSSION... The latest water vapor imagery shows a trough from the northern Plains extending southward into the central High Plains, with a plume of mid-level moisture extending from the central Rockies into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible this evening near the trough, mainly in northeastern Colorado near the right entrance region of a mid-level jet. Additional storms may form just ahead of the trough from eastern South Dakota into western Minnesota where a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates is present according to mesoanalysis data. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight further ahead of the trough near the axis of a low-level jet in parts of the northwestern Great Lakes. No severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening into the overnight across parts of the northwestern Great Lakes. Isolated storms may also develop this evening in parts of the northern Plains and central High Plains. ...DISCUSSION... The latest water vapor imagery shows a trough from the northern Plains extending southward into the central High Plains, with a plume of mid-level moisture extending from the central Rockies into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible this evening near the trough, mainly in northeastern Colorado near the right entrance region of a mid-level jet. Additional storms may form just ahead of the trough from eastern South Dakota into western Minnesota where a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates is present according to mesoanalysis data. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight further ahead of the trough near the axis of a low-level jet in parts of the northwestern Great Lakes. No severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening into the overnight across parts of the northwestern Great Lakes. Isolated storms may also develop this evening in parts of the northern Plains and central High Plains. ...DISCUSSION... The latest water vapor imagery shows a trough from the northern Plains extending southward into the central High Plains, with a plume of mid-level moisture extending from the central Rockies into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible this evening near the trough, mainly in northeastern Colorado near the right entrance region of a mid-level jet. Additional storms may form just ahead of the trough from eastern South Dakota into western Minnesota where a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates is present according to mesoanalysis data. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight further ahead of the trough near the axis of a low-level jet in parts of the northwestern Great Lakes. No severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 04/14/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 13 22:12:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 13 22:12:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z The forecast period will begin with an strong shortwave trough over the eastern half of the CONUS, with general ridging over the western half of CONUS. Additionally, fuels in the southwestern CONUS and into the High Plains should be receptive to fire spread throughout the week. A small jet streak should be embedded in the mid-level flow on Day 3/Tuesday across portions of the Southwest, and some of that flow may get mixed downward to the surface under strong surface heating across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. This may provide some fire weather risk across this region, and the 40% area has been maintained in this outlook to reflect that. By Day 4/Wednesday, the pattern shifts eastward, with troughing developing over the western parts of the CONUS and ridging over the central CONUS. The surface low pressure area associated with the mid-level troughing is expected to provide additional dry and breezy conditions across parts of New Mexico and Arizona. As such, the 40% area has been expanded to reflect this. By Day 5/Thursday, troughing becomes established over the western CONUS with lee troughing underway across the High Plains. This feature should provide additional fire weather risk across portions of the High Plains. The 40% area has been expanded, and a 70% area has been added where the highest confidence in Critical fire weather conditions overlaps with dry fuels. This pattern continues on Day 6/Friday, and a 40% area has been added across parts of New Mexico where the highest confidence in dry and breezy conditions is currently expected. Areas on both day 5 and 6 may need to be expanded eastward in subsequent outlooks. Beyond Day 6, continued dry and windy conditions are possible, however predictability deteriorates such that additional highlights are withheld pending later outlooks. ..Supinie.. 04/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more