Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Northeast... A post-frontal regime will be in place across the Northeast Tuesday. Flow aloft will remain modest with mid-level cooling through the day. This will support potential for redevelopment of scattered thunderstorm activity by the afternoon. Given post-frontal drying conditions and weak buoyancy, this should yield primarily sub-severe low-topped convection, though occasional gusty winds will be possible. ...Southwest... A mid-level low will approach the West Coast, with a belt of mid-level flow overspreading southern California into southern Nevada. Ahead of this feature, a weak shortwave trough will move across the Lower Colorado Valley towards the southern Rockies. Enough mid-level moisture in place with large-scale ascent will allow for isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity across the northern Sierra and across the Four Corners region. As shear profiles will be weak, storms are not expected to be severe. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Northeast... A post-frontal regime will be in place across the Northeast Tuesday. Flow aloft will remain modest with mid-level cooling through the day. This will support potential for redevelopment of scattered thunderstorm activity by the afternoon. Given post-frontal drying conditions and weak buoyancy, this should yield primarily sub-severe low-topped convection, though occasional gusty winds will be possible. ...Southwest... A mid-level low will approach the West Coast, with a belt of mid-level flow overspreading southern California into southern Nevada. Ahead of this feature, a weak shortwave trough will move across the Lower Colorado Valley towards the southern Rockies. Enough mid-level moisture in place with large-scale ascent will allow for isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity across the northern Sierra and across the Four Corners region. As shear profiles will be weak, storms are not expected to be severe. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Northeast... A post-frontal regime will be in place across the Northeast Tuesday. Flow aloft will remain modest with mid-level cooling through the day. This will support potential for redevelopment of scattered thunderstorm activity by the afternoon. Given post-frontal drying conditions and weak buoyancy, this should yield primarily sub-severe low-topped convection, though occasional gusty winds will be possible. ...Southwest... A mid-level low will approach the West Coast, with a belt of mid-level flow overspreading southern California into southern Nevada. Ahead of this feature, a weak shortwave trough will move across the Lower Colorado Valley towards the southern Rockies. Enough mid-level moisture in place with large-scale ascent will allow for isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity across the northern Sierra and across the Four Corners region. As shear profiles will be weak, storms are not expected to be severe. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Northeast... A post-frontal regime will be in place across the Northeast Tuesday. Flow aloft will remain modest with mid-level cooling through the day. This will support potential for redevelopment of scattered thunderstorm activity by the afternoon. Given post-frontal drying conditions and weak buoyancy, this should yield primarily sub-severe low-topped convection, though occasional gusty winds will be possible. ...Southwest... A mid-level low will approach the West Coast, with a belt of mid-level flow overspreading southern California into southern Nevada. Ahead of this feature, a weak shortwave trough will move across the Lower Colorado Valley towards the southern Rockies. Enough mid-level moisture in place with large-scale ascent will allow for isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity across the northern Sierra and across the Four Corners region. As shear profiles will be weak, storms are not expected to be severe. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z Ongoing elevated surface winds from the northwest of 15-25 mph within a dry post-frontal air mass will still result in Elevated fire weather conditions for parts of Central Plains today. Localized Critical fire weather conditions could develop where cloud cover remains minimal across central Nebraska as relative humidity drops into the 15-20% range this afternoon. However, a widespread Critical fire weather threat is not expected. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are expected in the wake of a cold front across the northern/central Plains today. These strong winds will persist into at least early afternoon. Thereafter, winds will steadily diminish. Despite a tendency for cooler temperatures to filter into the region, modest downslope flow and surface heating should allow temperatures to remain in the 50s/low 60s F. RH values of 20-30% are probable. Winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The most favorable overlap of these conditions are expected in parts of far southwest South Dakota, Nebraska, and far northern Kansas. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur for a few hours this afternoon. Models have quite a bit variance in the location and duration of sustained critical conditions. This is likely due to uncertainties in low/mid-level clouds that will eventually move into Nebraska. This precludes the addition of the critical highlight at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z Ongoing elevated surface winds from the northwest of 15-25 mph within a dry post-frontal air mass will still result in Elevated fire weather conditions for parts of Central Plains today. Localized Critical fire weather conditions could develop where cloud cover remains minimal across central Nebraska as relative humidity drops into the 15-20% range this afternoon. However, a widespread Critical fire weather threat is not expected. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are expected in the wake of a cold front across the northern/central Plains today. These strong winds will persist into at least early afternoon. Thereafter, winds will steadily diminish. Despite a tendency for cooler temperatures to filter into the region, modest downslope flow and surface heating should allow temperatures to remain in the 50s/low 60s F. RH values of 20-30% are probable. Winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The most favorable overlap of these conditions are expected in parts of far southwest South Dakota, Nebraska, and far northern Kansas. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur for a few hours this afternoon. Models have quite a bit variance in the location and duration of sustained critical conditions. This is likely due to uncertainties in low/mid-level clouds that will eventually move into Nebraska. This precludes the addition of the critical highlight at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z Ongoing elevated surface winds from the northwest of 15-25 mph within a dry post-frontal air mass will still result in Elevated fire weather conditions for parts of Central Plains today. Localized Critical fire weather conditions could develop where cloud cover remains minimal across central Nebraska as relative humidity drops into the 15-20% range this afternoon. However, a widespread Critical fire weather threat is not expected. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are expected in the wake of a cold front across the northern/central Plains today. These strong winds will persist into at least early afternoon. Thereafter, winds will steadily diminish. Despite a tendency for cooler temperatures to filter into the region, modest downslope flow and surface heating should allow temperatures to remain in the 50s/low 60s F. RH values of 20-30% are probable. Winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The most favorable overlap of these conditions are expected in parts of far southwest South Dakota, Nebraska, and far northern Kansas. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur for a few hours this afternoon. Models have quite a bit variance in the location and duration of sustained critical conditions. This is likely due to uncertainties in low/mid-level clouds that will eventually move into Nebraska. This precludes the addition of the critical highlight at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z Ongoing elevated surface winds from the northwest of 15-25 mph within a dry post-frontal air mass will still result in Elevated fire weather conditions for parts of Central Plains today. Localized Critical fire weather conditions could develop where cloud cover remains minimal across central Nebraska as relative humidity drops into the 15-20% range this afternoon. However, a widespread Critical fire weather threat is not expected. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are expected in the wake of a cold front across the northern/central Plains today. These strong winds will persist into at least early afternoon. Thereafter, winds will steadily diminish. Despite a tendency for cooler temperatures to filter into the region, modest downslope flow and surface heating should allow temperatures to remain in the 50s/low 60s F. RH values of 20-30% are probable. Winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The most favorable overlap of these conditions are expected in parts of far southwest South Dakota, Nebraska, and far northern Kansas. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur for a few hours this afternoon. Models have quite a bit variance in the location and duration of sustained critical conditions. This is likely due to uncertainties in low/mid-level clouds that will eventually move into Nebraska. This precludes the addition of the critical highlight at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z Ongoing elevated surface winds from the northwest of 15-25 mph within a dry post-frontal air mass will still result in Elevated fire weather conditions for parts of Central Plains today. Localized Critical fire weather conditions could develop where cloud cover remains minimal across central Nebraska as relative humidity drops into the 15-20% range this afternoon. However, a widespread Critical fire weather threat is not expected. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are expected in the wake of a cold front across the northern/central Plains today. These strong winds will persist into at least early afternoon. Thereafter, winds will steadily diminish. Despite a tendency for cooler temperatures to filter into the region, modest downslope flow and surface heating should allow temperatures to remain in the 50s/low 60s F. RH values of 20-30% are probable. Winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The most favorable overlap of these conditions are expected in parts of far southwest South Dakota, Nebraska, and far northern Kansas. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur for a few hours this afternoon. Models have quite a bit variance in the location and duration of sustained critical conditions. This is likely due to uncertainties in low/mid-level clouds that will eventually move into Nebraska. This precludes the addition of the critical highlight at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z Ongoing elevated surface winds from the northwest of 15-25 mph within a dry post-frontal air mass will still result in Elevated fire weather conditions for parts of Central Plains today. Localized Critical fire weather conditions could develop where cloud cover remains minimal across central Nebraska as relative humidity drops into the 15-20% range this afternoon. However, a widespread Critical fire weather threat is not expected. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are expected in the wake of a cold front across the northern/central Plains today. These strong winds will persist into at least early afternoon. Thereafter, winds will steadily diminish. Despite a tendency for cooler temperatures to filter into the region, modest downslope flow and surface heating should allow temperatures to remain in the 50s/low 60s F. RH values of 20-30% are probable. Winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The most favorable overlap of these conditions are expected in parts of far southwest South Dakota, Nebraska, and far northern Kansas. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur for a few hours this afternoon. Models have quite a bit variance in the location and duration of sustained critical conditions. This is likely due to uncertainties in low/mid-level clouds that will eventually move into Nebraska. This precludes the addition of the critical highlight at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z Ongoing elevated surface winds from the northwest of 15-25 mph within a dry post-frontal air mass will still result in Elevated fire weather conditions for parts of Central Plains today. Localized Critical fire weather conditions could develop where cloud cover remains minimal across central Nebraska as relative humidity drops into the 15-20% range this afternoon. However, a widespread Critical fire weather threat is not expected. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are expected in the wake of a cold front across the northern/central Plains today. These strong winds will persist into at least early afternoon. Thereafter, winds will steadily diminish. Despite a tendency for cooler temperatures to filter into the region, modest downslope flow and surface heating should allow temperatures to remain in the 50s/low 60s F. RH values of 20-30% are probable. Winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The most favorable overlap of these conditions are expected in parts of far southwest South Dakota, Nebraska, and far northern Kansas. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur for a few hours this afternoon. Models have quite a bit variance in the location and duration of sustained critical conditions. This is likely due to uncertainties in low/mid-level clouds that will eventually move into Nebraska. This precludes the addition of the critical highlight at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z Ongoing elevated surface winds from the northwest of 15-25 mph within a dry post-frontal air mass will still result in Elevated fire weather conditions for parts of Central Plains today. Localized Critical fire weather conditions could develop where cloud cover remains minimal across central Nebraska as relative humidity drops into the 15-20% range this afternoon. However, a widespread Critical fire weather threat is not expected. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are expected in the wake of a cold front across the northern/central Plains today. These strong winds will persist into at least early afternoon. Thereafter, winds will steadily diminish. Despite a tendency for cooler temperatures to filter into the region, modest downslope flow and surface heating should allow temperatures to remain in the 50s/low 60s F. RH values of 20-30% are probable. Winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The most favorable overlap of these conditions are expected in parts of far southwest South Dakota, Nebraska, and far northern Kansas. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur for a few hours this afternoon. Models have quite a bit variance in the location and duration of sustained critical conditions. This is likely due to uncertainties in low/mid-level clouds that will eventually move into Nebraska. This precludes the addition of the critical highlight at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z Ongoing elevated surface winds from the northwest of 15-25 mph within a dry post-frontal air mass will still result in Elevated fire weather conditions for parts of Central Plains today. Localized Critical fire weather conditions could develop where cloud cover remains minimal across central Nebraska as relative humidity drops into the 15-20% range this afternoon. However, a widespread Critical fire weather threat is not expected. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are expected in the wake of a cold front across the northern/central Plains today. These strong winds will persist into at least early afternoon. Thereafter, winds will steadily diminish. Despite a tendency for cooler temperatures to filter into the region, modest downslope flow and surface heating should allow temperatures to remain in the 50s/low 60s F. RH values of 20-30% are probable. Winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The most favorable overlap of these conditions are expected in parts of far southwest South Dakota, Nebraska, and far northern Kansas. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur for a few hours this afternoon. Models have quite a bit variance in the location and duration of sustained critical conditions. This is likely due to uncertainties in low/mid-level clouds that will eventually move into Nebraska. This precludes the addition of the critical highlight at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z Ongoing elevated surface winds from the northwest of 15-25 mph within a dry post-frontal air mass will still result in Elevated fire weather conditions for parts of Central Plains today. Localized Critical fire weather conditions could develop where cloud cover remains minimal across central Nebraska as relative humidity drops into the 15-20% range this afternoon. However, a widespread Critical fire weather threat is not expected. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are expected in the wake of a cold front across the northern/central Plains today. These strong winds will persist into at least early afternoon. Thereafter, winds will steadily diminish. Despite a tendency for cooler temperatures to filter into the region, modest downslope flow and surface heating should allow temperatures to remain in the 50s/low 60s F. RH values of 20-30% are probable. Winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The most favorable overlap of these conditions are expected in parts of far southwest South Dakota, Nebraska, and far northern Kansas. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur for a few hours this afternoon. Models have quite a bit variance in the location and duration of sustained critical conditions. This is likely due to uncertainties in low/mid-level clouds that will eventually move into Nebraska. This precludes the addition of the critical highlight at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z Ongoing elevated surface winds from the northwest of 15-25 mph within a dry post-frontal air mass will still result in Elevated fire weather conditions for parts of Central Plains today. Localized Critical fire weather conditions could develop where cloud cover remains minimal across central Nebraska as relative humidity drops into the 15-20% range this afternoon. However, a widespread Critical fire weather threat is not expected. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are expected in the wake of a cold front across the northern/central Plains today. These strong winds will persist into at least early afternoon. Thereafter, winds will steadily diminish. Despite a tendency for cooler temperatures to filter into the region, modest downslope flow and surface heating should allow temperatures to remain in the 50s/low 60s F. RH values of 20-30% are probable. Winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The most favorable overlap of these conditions are expected in parts of far southwest South Dakota, Nebraska, and far northern Kansas. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur for a few hours this afternoon. Models have quite a bit variance in the location and duration of sustained critical conditions. This is likely due to uncertainties in low/mid-level clouds that will eventually move into Nebraska. This precludes the addition of the critical highlight at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z Ongoing elevated surface winds from the northwest of 15-25 mph within a dry post-frontal air mass will still result in Elevated fire weather conditions for parts of Central Plains today. Localized Critical fire weather conditions could develop where cloud cover remains minimal across central Nebraska as relative humidity drops into the 15-20% range this afternoon. However, a widespread Critical fire weather threat is not expected. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are expected in the wake of a cold front across the northern/central Plains today. These strong winds will persist into at least early afternoon. Thereafter, winds will steadily diminish. Despite a tendency for cooler temperatures to filter into the region, modest downslope flow and surface heating should allow temperatures to remain in the 50s/low 60s F. RH values of 20-30% are probable. Winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The most favorable overlap of these conditions are expected in parts of far southwest South Dakota, Nebraska, and far northern Kansas. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur for a few hours this afternoon. Models have quite a bit variance in the location and duration of sustained critical conditions. This is likely due to uncertainties in low/mid-level clouds that will eventually move into Nebraska. This precludes the addition of the critical highlight at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z Ongoing elevated surface winds from the northwest of 15-25 mph within a dry post-frontal air mass will still result in Elevated fire weather conditions for parts of Central Plains today. Localized Critical fire weather conditions could develop where cloud cover remains minimal across central Nebraska as relative humidity drops into the 15-20% range this afternoon. However, a widespread Critical fire weather threat is not expected. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are expected in the wake of a cold front across the northern/central Plains today. These strong winds will persist into at least early afternoon. Thereafter, winds will steadily diminish. Despite a tendency for cooler temperatures to filter into the region, modest downslope flow and surface heating should allow temperatures to remain in the 50s/low 60s F. RH values of 20-30% are probable. Winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The most favorable overlap of these conditions are expected in parts of far southwest South Dakota, Nebraska, and far northern Kansas. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur for a few hours this afternoon. Models have quite a bit variance in the location and duration of sustained critical conditions. This is likely due to uncertainties in low/mid-level clouds that will eventually move into Nebraska. This precludes the addition of the critical highlight at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon through early tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon into VA early tonight... Recent satellite imagery depicts a maturing mid-latitude cyclone moving eastward across Lake Superior towards northeastern Ontario with an upstream shortwave trough moving through the northern Plains. Expectation is for the cyclone to continue deepening/maturing as it moves into and through northeastern Ontario today, while the upstream shortwave progresses quickly southeastward through the Mid MO Valley and into the Mid MS Valley. As this occurs, strong mid-level flow will spread eastward across the OH Valley and over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States. At the same time, a cold front will spread eastward across the OH Valley this afternoon and evening, and across the central Appalachians tonight. Current surface analysis reveals upper 40s to low 50s dewpoints ahead of the front in the Middle OH Valley, with the upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints farther southwest over western KY. This greater low-level moisture is expected to surge northeastward amid the moderate southwesterly low-level flow, combining with evapotranspiration to bring upper 50s dewpoints into upper OH Valley ahead of the front. This increase in low-level moisture combined with daytime heating should be enough to destabilize the airmass ahead of the front across the Upper OH Valley. Forcing for ascent (from a combination of increasing large-scale ascent and forcing along the front) will increase across this destabilized area, supporting thunderstorm development during the afternoon. An initially cellular mode is anticipated, with steep mid-level lapse rates and long hodographs potentially resulting in a few supercells. Primary severe risk with these supercells is large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter. Some damaging gusts and a tornado or two are possible, although the lack of higher low-level moisture will mitigate the overall tornado potential. Strong outflow and increasing mid-level flow suggest a transition to a more linear mode is likely, with several bowing segments possible. There is also some potential for the development of a singular, more coherent convective line. In either case, a transition from hail to damaging gusts as the primary severe risk is anticipated as this activity spreads eastward. Clusters/line segments will likely persist east of the Appalachians into VA through early tonight, though the severe threat will diminish with eastward extent and after 03z. ...SD to IA this afternoon/evening... Low-level moisture will be limited, but surface heating beneath cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy and the potential for low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms from SD into IA (in advance of a digging shortwave trough now over western ND/eastern MT). Relatively cold temperature profiles will favor some threat for small hail, while steep low-level lapse rates and 30+ kt flow through the mixed layer favor gusty outflow winds of 40-50 mph. ..Mosier/Weinman.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon through early tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon into VA early tonight... Recent satellite imagery depicts a maturing mid-latitude cyclone moving eastward across Lake Superior towards northeastern Ontario with an upstream shortwave trough moving through the northern Plains. Expectation is for the cyclone to continue deepening/maturing as it moves into and through northeastern Ontario today, while the upstream shortwave progresses quickly southeastward through the Mid MO Valley and into the Mid MS Valley. As this occurs, strong mid-level flow will spread eastward across the OH Valley and over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States. At the same time, a cold front will spread eastward across the OH Valley this afternoon and evening, and across the central Appalachians tonight. Current surface analysis reveals upper 40s to low 50s dewpoints ahead of the front in the Middle OH Valley, with the upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints farther southwest over western KY. This greater low-level moisture is expected to surge northeastward amid the moderate southwesterly low-level flow, combining with evapotranspiration to bring upper 50s dewpoints into upper OH Valley ahead of the front. This increase in low-level moisture combined with daytime heating should be enough to destabilize the airmass ahead of the front across the Upper OH Valley. Forcing for ascent (from a combination of increasing large-scale ascent and forcing along the front) will increase across this destabilized area, supporting thunderstorm development during the afternoon. An initially cellular mode is anticipated, with steep mid-level lapse rates and long hodographs potentially resulting in a few supercells. Primary severe risk with these supercells is large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter. Some damaging gusts and a tornado or two are possible, although the lack of higher low-level moisture will mitigate the overall tornado potential. Strong outflow and increasing mid-level flow suggest a transition to a more linear mode is likely, with several bowing segments possible. There is also some potential for the development of a singular, more coherent convective line. In either case, a transition from hail to damaging gusts as the primary severe risk is anticipated as this activity spreads eastward. Clusters/line segments will likely persist east of the Appalachians into VA through early tonight, though the severe threat will diminish with eastward extent and after 03z. ...SD to IA this afternoon/evening... Low-level moisture will be limited, but surface heating beneath cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy and the potential for low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms from SD into IA (in advance of a digging shortwave trough now over western ND/eastern MT). Relatively cold temperature profiles will favor some threat for small hail, while steep low-level lapse rates and 30+ kt flow through the mixed layer favor gusty outflow winds of 40-50 mph. ..Mosier/Weinman.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon through early tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon into VA early tonight... Recent satellite imagery depicts a maturing mid-latitude cyclone moving eastward across Lake Superior towards northeastern Ontario with an upstream shortwave trough moving through the northern Plains. Expectation is for the cyclone to continue deepening/maturing as it moves into and through northeastern Ontario today, while the upstream shortwave progresses quickly southeastward through the Mid MO Valley and into the Mid MS Valley. As this occurs, strong mid-level flow will spread eastward across the OH Valley and over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States. At the same time, a cold front will spread eastward across the OH Valley this afternoon and evening, and across the central Appalachians tonight. Current surface analysis reveals upper 40s to low 50s dewpoints ahead of the front in the Middle OH Valley, with the upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints farther southwest over western KY. This greater low-level moisture is expected to surge northeastward amid the moderate southwesterly low-level flow, combining with evapotranspiration to bring upper 50s dewpoints into upper OH Valley ahead of the front. This increase in low-level moisture combined with daytime heating should be enough to destabilize the airmass ahead of the front across the Upper OH Valley. Forcing for ascent (from a combination of increasing large-scale ascent and forcing along the front) will increase across this destabilized area, supporting thunderstorm development during the afternoon. An initially cellular mode is anticipated, with steep mid-level lapse rates and long hodographs potentially resulting in a few supercells. Primary severe risk with these supercells is large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter. Some damaging gusts and a tornado or two are possible, although the lack of higher low-level moisture will mitigate the overall tornado potential. Strong outflow and increasing mid-level flow suggest a transition to a more linear mode is likely, with several bowing segments possible. There is also some potential for the development of a singular, more coherent convective line. In either case, a transition from hail to damaging gusts as the primary severe risk is anticipated as this activity spreads eastward. Clusters/line segments will likely persist east of the Appalachians into VA through early tonight, though the severe threat will diminish with eastward extent and after 03z. ...SD to IA this afternoon/evening... Low-level moisture will be limited, but surface heating beneath cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy and the potential for low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms from SD into IA (in advance of a digging shortwave trough now over western ND/eastern MT). Relatively cold temperature profiles will favor some threat for small hail, while steep low-level lapse rates and 30+ kt flow through the mixed layer favor gusty outflow winds of 40-50 mph. ..Mosier/Weinman.. 04/14/2025 Read more