Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A deepening upper-level trough across the western U.S. along with a marked increase in southwesterly mid-level flow will support a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent Southern High Plains from Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday, potentially into Day 6/Saturday. Lee cyclone formation in response to the increased southwest flow aloft will promote accelerating winds across southeastern Arizona and much of New Mexico on Day 3/Wednesday. A very dry boundary layer and daytime mixing should result in single digit relative humidity values across southwestern New Mexico. A 70 percent probability of Critical fire weather conditions have been introduced to reflect latest model guidance consensus and overall increased confidence. By Day 4/Thursday, the trough pattern amplifies across the West while a mid-level jet max translates over the Desert Southwest. Latest model and ensemble guidance has allowed for increased confidence in a widespread fire weather threat across the region, albeit shifted slightly eastward from the Day 3 threat. 70 percent probabilities have been expanded for much of New Mexico. Enhanced downsloping across the Southern High Plains amid receptive carryover fuels and dry surface layer prompted expansion of the 70 percent area into southeastern Colorado and western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles for Day 4. Upper-level trough axis across the west shifts southward introducing chances for rain/snow into portions the Southwest, mainly north of the I-40 corridor by late week. However, fire weather concerns could linger into the weekend for portions of southern New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A deepening upper-level trough across the western U.S. along with a marked increase in southwesterly mid-level flow will support a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent Southern High Plains from Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday, potentially into Day 6/Saturday. Lee cyclone formation in response to the increased southwest flow aloft will promote accelerating winds across southeastern Arizona and much of New Mexico on Day 3/Wednesday. A very dry boundary layer and daytime mixing should result in single digit relative humidity values across southwestern New Mexico. A 70 percent probability of Critical fire weather conditions have been introduced to reflect latest model guidance consensus and overall increased confidence. By Day 4/Thursday, the trough pattern amplifies across the West while a mid-level jet max translates over the Desert Southwest. Latest model and ensemble guidance has allowed for increased confidence in a widespread fire weather threat across the region, albeit shifted slightly eastward from the Day 3 threat. 70 percent probabilities have been expanded for much of New Mexico. Enhanced downsloping across the Southern High Plains amid receptive carryover fuels and dry surface layer prompted expansion of the 70 percent area into southeastern Colorado and western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles for Day 4. Upper-level trough axis across the west shifts southward introducing chances for rain/snow into portions the Southwest, mainly north of the I-40 corridor by late week. However, fire weather concerns could linger into the weekend for portions of southern New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A deepening upper-level trough across the western U.S. along with a marked increase in southwesterly mid-level flow will support a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent Southern High Plains from Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday, potentially into Day 6/Saturday. Lee cyclone formation in response to the increased southwest flow aloft will promote accelerating winds across southeastern Arizona and much of New Mexico on Day 3/Wednesday. A very dry boundary layer and daytime mixing should result in single digit relative humidity values across southwestern New Mexico. A 70 percent probability of Critical fire weather conditions have been introduced to reflect latest model guidance consensus and overall increased confidence. By Day 4/Thursday, the trough pattern amplifies across the West while a mid-level jet max translates over the Desert Southwest. Latest model and ensemble guidance has allowed for increased confidence in a widespread fire weather threat across the region, albeit shifted slightly eastward from the Day 3 threat. 70 percent probabilities have been expanded for much of New Mexico. Enhanced downsloping across the Southern High Plains amid receptive carryover fuels and dry surface layer prompted expansion of the 70 percent area into southeastern Colorado and western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles for Day 4. Upper-level trough axis across the west shifts southward introducing chances for rain/snow into portions the Southwest, mainly north of the I-40 corridor by late week. However, fire weather concerns could linger into the weekend for portions of southern New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A deepening upper-level trough across the western U.S. along with a marked increase in southwesterly mid-level flow will support a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent Southern High Plains from Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday, potentially into Day 6/Saturday. Lee cyclone formation in response to the increased southwest flow aloft will promote accelerating winds across southeastern Arizona and much of New Mexico on Day 3/Wednesday. A very dry boundary layer and daytime mixing should result in single digit relative humidity values across southwestern New Mexico. A 70 percent probability of Critical fire weather conditions have been introduced to reflect latest model guidance consensus and overall increased confidence. By Day 4/Thursday, the trough pattern amplifies across the West while a mid-level jet max translates over the Desert Southwest. Latest model and ensemble guidance has allowed for increased confidence in a widespread fire weather threat across the region, albeit shifted slightly eastward from the Day 3 threat. 70 percent probabilities have been expanded for much of New Mexico. Enhanced downsloping across the Southern High Plains amid receptive carryover fuels and dry surface layer prompted expansion of the 70 percent area into southeastern Colorado and western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles for Day 4. Upper-level trough axis across the west shifts southward introducing chances for rain/snow into portions the Southwest, mainly north of the I-40 corridor by late week. However, fire weather concerns could linger into the weekend for portions of southern New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A deepening upper-level trough across the western U.S. along with a marked increase in southwesterly mid-level flow will support a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent Southern High Plains from Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday, potentially into Day 6/Saturday. Lee cyclone formation in response to the increased southwest flow aloft will promote accelerating winds across southeastern Arizona and much of New Mexico on Day 3/Wednesday. A very dry boundary layer and daytime mixing should result in single digit relative humidity values across southwestern New Mexico. A 70 percent probability of Critical fire weather conditions have been introduced to reflect latest model guidance consensus and overall increased confidence. By Day 4/Thursday, the trough pattern amplifies across the West while a mid-level jet max translates over the Desert Southwest. Latest model and ensemble guidance has allowed for increased confidence in a widespread fire weather threat across the region, albeit shifted slightly eastward from the Day 3 threat. 70 percent probabilities have been expanded for much of New Mexico. Enhanced downsloping across the Southern High Plains amid receptive carryover fuels and dry surface layer prompted expansion of the 70 percent area into southeastern Colorado and western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles for Day 4. Upper-level trough axis across the west shifts southward introducing chances for rain/snow into portions the Southwest, mainly north of the I-40 corridor by late week. However, fire weather concerns could linger into the weekend for portions of southern New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A deepening upper-level trough across the western U.S. along with a marked increase in southwesterly mid-level flow will support a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent Southern High Plains from Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday, potentially into Day 6/Saturday. Lee cyclone formation in response to the increased southwest flow aloft will promote accelerating winds across southeastern Arizona and much of New Mexico on Day 3/Wednesday. A very dry boundary layer and daytime mixing should result in single digit relative humidity values across southwestern New Mexico. A 70 percent probability of Critical fire weather conditions have been introduced to reflect latest model guidance consensus and overall increased confidence. By Day 4/Thursday, the trough pattern amplifies across the West while a mid-level jet max translates over the Desert Southwest. Latest model and ensemble guidance has allowed for increased confidence in a widespread fire weather threat across the region, albeit shifted slightly eastward from the Day 3 threat. 70 percent probabilities have been expanded for much of New Mexico. Enhanced downsloping across the Southern High Plains amid receptive carryover fuels and dry surface layer prompted expansion of the 70 percent area into southeastern Colorado and western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles for Day 4. Upper-level trough axis across the west shifts southward introducing chances for rain/snow into portions the Southwest, mainly north of the I-40 corridor by late week. However, fire weather concerns could linger into the weekend for portions of southern New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A deepening upper-level trough across the western U.S. along with a marked increase in southwesterly mid-level flow will support a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent Southern High Plains from Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday, potentially into Day 6/Saturday. Lee cyclone formation in response to the increased southwest flow aloft will promote accelerating winds across southeastern Arizona and much of New Mexico on Day 3/Wednesday. A very dry boundary layer and daytime mixing should result in single digit relative humidity values across southwestern New Mexico. A 70 percent probability of Critical fire weather conditions have been introduced to reflect latest model guidance consensus and overall increased confidence. By Day 4/Thursday, the trough pattern amplifies across the West while a mid-level jet max translates over the Desert Southwest. Latest model and ensemble guidance has allowed for increased confidence in a widespread fire weather threat across the region, albeit shifted slightly eastward from the Day 3 threat. 70 percent probabilities have been expanded for much of New Mexico. Enhanced downsloping across the Southern High Plains amid receptive carryover fuels and dry surface layer prompted expansion of the 70 percent area into southeastern Colorado and western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles for Day 4. Upper-level trough axis across the west shifts southward introducing chances for rain/snow into portions the Southwest, mainly north of the I-40 corridor by late week. However, fire weather concerns could linger into the weekend for portions of southern New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A deepening upper-level trough across the western U.S. along with a marked increase in southwesterly mid-level flow will support a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent Southern High Plains from Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday, potentially into Day 6/Saturday. Lee cyclone formation in response to the increased southwest flow aloft will promote accelerating winds across southeastern Arizona and much of New Mexico on Day 3/Wednesday. A very dry boundary layer and daytime mixing should result in single digit relative humidity values across southwestern New Mexico. A 70 percent probability of Critical fire weather conditions have been introduced to reflect latest model guidance consensus and overall increased confidence. By Day 4/Thursday, the trough pattern amplifies across the West while a mid-level jet max translates over the Desert Southwest. Latest model and ensemble guidance has allowed for increased confidence in a widespread fire weather threat across the region, albeit shifted slightly eastward from the Day 3 threat. 70 percent probabilities have been expanded for much of New Mexico. Enhanced downsloping across the Southern High Plains amid receptive carryover fuels and dry surface layer prompted expansion of the 70 percent area into southeastern Colorado and western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles for Day 4. Upper-level trough axis across the west shifts southward introducing chances for rain/snow into portions the Southwest, mainly north of the I-40 corridor by late week. However, fire weather concerns could linger into the weekend for portions of southern New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A deepening upper-level trough across the western U.S. along with a marked increase in southwesterly mid-level flow will support a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent Southern High Plains from Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday, potentially into Day 6/Saturday. Lee cyclone formation in response to the increased southwest flow aloft will promote accelerating winds across southeastern Arizona and much of New Mexico on Day 3/Wednesday. A very dry boundary layer and daytime mixing should result in single digit relative humidity values across southwestern New Mexico. A 70 percent probability of Critical fire weather conditions have been introduced to reflect latest model guidance consensus and overall increased confidence. By Day 4/Thursday, the trough pattern amplifies across the West while a mid-level jet max translates over the Desert Southwest. Latest model and ensemble guidance has allowed for increased confidence in a widespread fire weather threat across the region, albeit shifted slightly eastward from the Day 3 threat. 70 percent probabilities have been expanded for much of New Mexico. Enhanced downsloping across the Southern High Plains amid receptive carryover fuels and dry surface layer prompted expansion of the 70 percent area into southeastern Colorado and western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles for Day 4. Upper-level trough axis across the west shifts southward introducing chances for rain/snow into portions the Southwest, mainly north of the I-40 corridor by late week. However, fire weather concerns could linger into the weekend for portions of southern New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A deepening upper-level trough across the western U.S. along with a marked increase in southwesterly mid-level flow will support a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent Southern High Plains from Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday, potentially into Day 6/Saturday. Lee cyclone formation in response to the increased southwest flow aloft will promote accelerating winds across southeastern Arizona and much of New Mexico on Day 3/Wednesday. A very dry boundary layer and daytime mixing should result in single digit relative humidity values across southwestern New Mexico. A 70 percent probability of Critical fire weather conditions have been introduced to reflect latest model guidance consensus and overall increased confidence. By Day 4/Thursday, the trough pattern amplifies across the West while a mid-level jet max translates over the Desert Southwest. Latest model and ensemble guidance has allowed for increased confidence in a widespread fire weather threat across the region, albeit shifted slightly eastward from the Day 3 threat. 70 percent probabilities have been expanded for much of New Mexico. Enhanced downsloping across the Southern High Plains amid receptive carryover fuels and dry surface layer prompted expansion of the 70 percent area into southeastern Colorado and western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles for Day 4. Upper-level trough axis across the west shifts southward introducing chances for rain/snow into portions the Southwest, mainly north of the I-40 corridor by late week. However, fire weather concerns could linger into the weekend for portions of southern New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A deepening upper-level trough across the western U.S. along with a marked increase in southwesterly mid-level flow will support a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent Southern High Plains from Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday, potentially into Day 6/Saturday. Lee cyclone formation in response to the increased southwest flow aloft will promote accelerating winds across southeastern Arizona and much of New Mexico on Day 3/Wednesday. A very dry boundary layer and daytime mixing should result in single digit relative humidity values across southwestern New Mexico. A 70 percent probability of Critical fire weather conditions have been introduced to reflect latest model guidance consensus and overall increased confidence. By Day 4/Thursday, the trough pattern amplifies across the West while a mid-level jet max translates over the Desert Southwest. Latest model and ensemble guidance has allowed for increased confidence in a widespread fire weather threat across the region, albeit shifted slightly eastward from the Day 3 threat. 70 percent probabilities have been expanded for much of New Mexico. Enhanced downsloping across the Southern High Plains amid receptive carryover fuels and dry surface layer prompted expansion of the 70 percent area into southeastern Colorado and western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles for Day 4. Upper-level trough axis across the west shifts southward introducing chances for rain/snow into portions the Southwest, mainly north of the I-40 corridor by late week. However, fire weather concerns could linger into the weekend for portions of southern New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A deepening upper-level trough across the western U.S. along with a marked increase in southwesterly mid-level flow will support a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent Southern High Plains from Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday, potentially into Day 6/Saturday. Lee cyclone formation in response to the increased southwest flow aloft will promote accelerating winds across southeastern Arizona and much of New Mexico on Day 3/Wednesday. A very dry boundary layer and daytime mixing should result in single digit relative humidity values across southwestern New Mexico. A 70 percent probability of Critical fire weather conditions have been introduced to reflect latest model guidance consensus and overall increased confidence. By Day 4/Thursday, the trough pattern amplifies across the West while a mid-level jet max translates over the Desert Southwest. Latest model and ensemble guidance has allowed for increased confidence in a widespread fire weather threat across the region, albeit shifted slightly eastward from the Day 3 threat. 70 percent probabilities have been expanded for much of New Mexico. Enhanced downsloping across the Southern High Plains amid receptive carryover fuels and dry surface layer prompted expansion of the 70 percent area into southeastern Colorado and western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles for Day 4. Upper-level trough axis across the west shifts southward introducing chances for rain/snow into portions the Southwest, mainly north of the I-40 corridor by late week. However, fire weather concerns could linger into the weekend for portions of southern New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A deepening upper-level trough across the western U.S. along with a marked increase in southwesterly mid-level flow will support a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent Southern High Plains from Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday, potentially into Day 6/Saturday. Lee cyclone formation in response to the increased southwest flow aloft will promote accelerating winds across southeastern Arizona and much of New Mexico on Day 3/Wednesday. A very dry boundary layer and daytime mixing should result in single digit relative humidity values across southwestern New Mexico. A 70 percent probability of Critical fire weather conditions have been introduced to reflect latest model guidance consensus and overall increased confidence. By Day 4/Thursday, the trough pattern amplifies across the West while a mid-level jet max translates over the Desert Southwest. Latest model and ensemble guidance has allowed for increased confidence in a widespread fire weather threat across the region, albeit shifted slightly eastward from the Day 3 threat. 70 percent probabilities have been expanded for much of New Mexico. Enhanced downsloping across the Southern High Plains amid receptive carryover fuels and dry surface layer prompted expansion of the 70 percent area into southeastern Colorado and western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles for Day 4. Upper-level trough axis across the west shifts southward introducing chances for rain/snow into portions the Southwest, mainly north of the I-40 corridor by late week. However, fire weather concerns could linger into the weekend for portions of southern New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A deepening upper-level trough across the western U.S. along with a marked increase in southwesterly mid-level flow will support a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent Southern High Plains from Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday, potentially into Day 6/Saturday. Lee cyclone formation in response to the increased southwest flow aloft will promote accelerating winds across southeastern Arizona and much of New Mexico on Day 3/Wednesday. A very dry boundary layer and daytime mixing should result in single digit relative humidity values across southwestern New Mexico. A 70 percent probability of Critical fire weather conditions have been introduced to reflect latest model guidance consensus and overall increased confidence. By Day 4/Thursday, the trough pattern amplifies across the West while a mid-level jet max translates over the Desert Southwest. Latest model and ensemble guidance has allowed for increased confidence in a widespread fire weather threat across the region, albeit shifted slightly eastward from the Day 3 threat. 70 percent probabilities have been expanded for much of New Mexico. Enhanced downsloping across the Southern High Plains amid receptive carryover fuels and dry surface layer prompted expansion of the 70 percent area into southeastern Colorado and western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles for Day 4. Upper-level trough axis across the west shifts southward introducing chances for rain/snow into portions the Southwest, mainly north of the I-40 corridor by late week. However, fire weather concerns could linger into the weekend for portions of southern New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A deepening upper-level trough across the western U.S. along with a marked increase in southwesterly mid-level flow will support a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent Southern High Plains from Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday, potentially into Day 6/Saturday. Lee cyclone formation in response to the increased southwest flow aloft will promote accelerating winds across southeastern Arizona and much of New Mexico on Day 3/Wednesday. A very dry boundary layer and daytime mixing should result in single digit relative humidity values across southwestern New Mexico. A 70 percent probability of Critical fire weather conditions have been introduced to reflect latest model guidance consensus and overall increased confidence. By Day 4/Thursday, the trough pattern amplifies across the West while a mid-level jet max translates over the Desert Southwest. Latest model and ensemble guidance has allowed for increased confidence in a widespread fire weather threat across the region, albeit shifted slightly eastward from the Day 3 threat. 70 percent probabilities have been expanded for much of New Mexico. Enhanced downsloping across the Southern High Plains amid receptive carryover fuels and dry surface layer prompted expansion of the 70 percent area into southeastern Colorado and western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles for Day 4. Upper-level trough axis across the west shifts southward introducing chances for rain/snow into portions the Southwest, mainly north of the I-40 corridor by late week. However, fire weather concerns could linger into the weekend for portions of southern New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A deepening upper-level trough across the western U.S. along with a marked increase in southwesterly mid-level flow will support a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent Southern High Plains from Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday, potentially into Day 6/Saturday. Lee cyclone formation in response to the increased southwest flow aloft will promote accelerating winds across southeastern Arizona and much of New Mexico on Day 3/Wednesday. A very dry boundary layer and daytime mixing should result in single digit relative humidity values across southwestern New Mexico. A 70 percent probability of Critical fire weather conditions have been introduced to reflect latest model guidance consensus and overall increased confidence. By Day 4/Thursday, the trough pattern amplifies across the West while a mid-level jet max translates over the Desert Southwest. Latest model and ensemble guidance has allowed for increased confidence in a widespread fire weather threat across the region, albeit shifted slightly eastward from the Day 3 threat. 70 percent probabilities have been expanded for much of New Mexico. Enhanced downsloping across the Southern High Plains amid receptive carryover fuels and dry surface layer prompted expansion of the 70 percent area into southeastern Colorado and western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles for Day 4. Upper-level trough axis across the west shifts southward introducing chances for rain/snow into portions the Southwest, mainly north of the I-40 corridor by late week. However, fire weather concerns could linger into the weekend for portions of southern New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A deepening upper-level trough across the western U.S. along with a marked increase in southwesterly mid-level flow will support a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent Southern High Plains from Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday, potentially into Day 6/Saturday. Lee cyclone formation in response to the increased southwest flow aloft will promote accelerating winds across southeastern Arizona and much of New Mexico on Day 3/Wednesday. A very dry boundary layer and daytime mixing should result in single digit relative humidity values across southwestern New Mexico. A 70 percent probability of Critical fire weather conditions have been introduced to reflect latest model guidance consensus and overall increased confidence. By Day 4/Thursday, the trough pattern amplifies across the West while a mid-level jet max translates over the Desert Southwest. Latest model and ensemble guidance has allowed for increased confidence in a widespread fire weather threat across the region, albeit shifted slightly eastward from the Day 3 threat. 70 percent probabilities have been expanded for much of New Mexico. Enhanced downsloping across the Southern High Plains amid receptive carryover fuels and dry surface layer prompted expansion of the 70 percent area into southeastern Colorado and western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles for Day 4. Upper-level trough axis across the west shifts southward introducing chances for rain/snow into portions the Southwest, mainly north of the I-40 corridor by late week. However, fire weather concerns could linger into the weekend for portions of southern New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A deepening upper-level trough across the western U.S. along with a marked increase in southwesterly mid-level flow will support a multi-day fire weather threat across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent Southern High Plains from Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday, potentially into Day 6/Saturday. Lee cyclone formation in response to the increased southwest flow aloft will promote accelerating winds across southeastern Arizona and much of New Mexico on Day 3/Wednesday. A very dry boundary layer and daytime mixing should result in single digit relative humidity values across southwestern New Mexico. A 70 percent probability of Critical fire weather conditions have been introduced to reflect latest model guidance consensus and overall increased confidence. By Day 4/Thursday, the trough pattern amplifies across the West while a mid-level jet max translates over the Desert Southwest. Latest model and ensemble guidance has allowed for increased confidence in a widespread fire weather threat across the region, albeit shifted slightly eastward from the Day 3 threat. 70 percent probabilities have been expanded for much of New Mexico. Enhanced downsloping across the Southern High Plains amid receptive carryover fuels and dry surface layer prompted expansion of the 70 percent area into southeastern Colorado and western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles for Day 4. Upper-level trough axis across the west shifts southward introducing chances for rain/snow into portions the Southwest, mainly north of the I-40 corridor by late week. However, fire weather concerns could linger into the weekend for portions of southern New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0447 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CNTRL/SERN SD...SWRN MN...NWRN IA...NERN NE
Mesoscale Discussion 0447 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Areas affected...parts of cntrl/sern SD...swrn MN...nern IA...nern NE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 141810Z - 142115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Showers spreading southeastward through the mid Missouri Valley may begin to intensify by 3-4 PM CDT, with a few weak thunderstorms developing and posing increasing potential for strong to severe surface gusts while spreading southeastward through the remainder of the afternoon. DISCUSSION...In the wake of a deep cyclone, now migrating northeast of the Upper Great Lakes region, downward mixing of momentum is already contributing to 30-35+ kt northwesterly surface gusts across much of the middle Missouri Valley, as boundary-layer warming progresses. This is occurring just ahead of a vigorous short wave trough now digging through the western Dakotas, and forecast to continue rapidly southeastward through early evening. Models indicate that the mid-level cold core (including -30 to -35C around 500 mb) will overspread a corridor from central South Dakota through northeastern Iowa between 20-23Z, coincident with further strengthening of northwesterly flow (35-40+ kt) in the 850-700 mb layer and peak afternoon surface heating. As this occurs, forecast soundings indicate that profiles will become increasingly conducive to deepening convection capable of producing lightning. With at least some further intensification of ongoing developing convection, evaporative cooling and melting of precipitation within an increasing well-mixed boundary layer (characterized by sizable surface temperature/dew point spreads on the order of 20+ F), coupled with the downward mixing of stronger flow aloft, seems likely to contribute to increasing potential for surface gusts approaching or briefly exceeding severe limits. This may continue into early evening, as convection spreads southeastward, before rapidly diminishing with the onset of boundary-layer cooling. ..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...UNR... LAT...LON 44969838 44749683 43839520 43419469 42209542 42309648 42919815 43719996 44779996 44969838 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 0448 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
Mesoscale Discussion 0448 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Areas affected...Portions of the Middle/Upper Ohio River Valley to the Central Appalachians. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 141818Z - 142015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will spread eastward through the afternoon into the evening. A watch will likely be issued within an hour or two for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...Initial thunderstorms are developing across southern IN this afternoon, generally focused along/ahead of an eastward-moving cold front. Ahead of this activity, continued diurnal heating amid increasing boundary-layer moisture (middle/upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints) will continue to erode inhibition and support additional storm development. Steep midlevel lapse rates (sampled by earlier 12Z soundings) atop the destabilizing boundary layer will yield around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, favoring a gradual increase in storm intensity through the afternoon. As 60+ kt of midlevel flow (sampled by upstream VWP data) overspreads the warm sector, very long/mostly straight hodographs (60-70 kt of effective shear) will promote splitting supercell structures, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Despite the expectation for an initially semi-discrete mode, strong outflow amid the splitting storm structures will favor gradual upscale growth into small lines and clusters with eastward extent -- with an associated increasing severe-wind risk. A watch will likely be issued for parts of the area within an hour or two. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN... LMK... LAT...LON 38248556 38918470 39248402 39638285 40028068 39977973 39747915 39357876 38847859 38237864 37707920 37408001 37228138 37038395 37138489 37338555 37818577 38248556 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more