Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon across eastern Pennsylvania and vicinity. ...Northeast today... A 110 kt 500-mb jet streak will pivot eastward from the OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, around the southern periphery of an occluding cyclone over southern QC. An associated surface cold front will likewise move eastward to the Atlantic coast during the day. In the post-frontal environment, steepening low-level lapse rates and rapidly cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy (SBCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) of sufficient depth for charge separation/isolated lightning flashes. The steep low-level lapse rates and weak downdrafts will augment 30-40 kt flow in the mixed layer and contribute to surface gusts of 45-60 mph, with the potential for minor wind damage. ...Elsewhere... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible this afternoon/evening from southwest CO into northern NM and vicinity, within a modest midlevel moisture plume where weak buoyancy will be possible with afternoon heating. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur over the Sierra Nevada and east Texas. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon across eastern Pennsylvania and vicinity. ...Northeast today... A 110 kt 500-mb jet streak will pivot eastward from the OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, around the southern periphery of an occluding cyclone over southern QC. An associated surface cold front will likewise move eastward to the Atlantic coast during the day. In the post-frontal environment, steepening low-level lapse rates and rapidly cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy (SBCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) of sufficient depth for charge separation/isolated lightning flashes. The steep low-level lapse rates and weak downdrafts will augment 30-40 kt flow in the mixed layer and contribute to surface gusts of 45-60 mph, with the potential for minor wind damage. ...Elsewhere... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible this afternoon/evening from southwest CO into northern NM and vicinity, within a modest midlevel moisture plume where weak buoyancy will be possible with afternoon heating. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur over the Sierra Nevada and east Texas. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon across eastern Pennsylvania and vicinity. ...Northeast today... A 110 kt 500-mb jet streak will pivot eastward from the OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, around the southern periphery of an occluding cyclone over southern QC. An associated surface cold front will likewise move eastward to the Atlantic coast during the day. In the post-frontal environment, steepening low-level lapse rates and rapidly cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy (SBCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) of sufficient depth for charge separation/isolated lightning flashes. The steep low-level lapse rates and weak downdrafts will augment 30-40 kt flow in the mixed layer and contribute to surface gusts of 45-60 mph, with the potential for minor wind damage. ...Elsewhere... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible this afternoon/evening from southwest CO into northern NM and vicinity, within a modest midlevel moisture plume where weak buoyancy will be possible with afternoon heating. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur over the Sierra Nevada and east Texas. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon across eastern Pennsylvania and vicinity. ...Northeast today... A 110 kt 500-mb jet streak will pivot eastward from the OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, around the southern periphery of an occluding cyclone over southern QC. An associated surface cold front will likewise move eastward to the Atlantic coast during the day. In the post-frontal environment, steepening low-level lapse rates and rapidly cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy (SBCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) of sufficient depth for charge separation/isolated lightning flashes. The steep low-level lapse rates and weak downdrafts will augment 30-40 kt flow in the mixed layer and contribute to surface gusts of 45-60 mph, with the potential for minor wind damage. ...Elsewhere... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible this afternoon/evening from southwest CO into northern NM and vicinity, within a modest midlevel moisture plume where weak buoyancy will be possible with afternoon heating. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur over the Sierra Nevada and east Texas. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon across eastern Pennsylvania and vicinity. ...Northeast today... A 110 kt 500-mb jet streak will pivot eastward from the OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, around the southern periphery of an occluding cyclone over southern QC. An associated surface cold front will likewise move eastward to the Atlantic coast during the day. In the post-frontal environment, steepening low-level lapse rates and rapidly cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy (SBCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) of sufficient depth for charge separation/isolated lightning flashes. The steep low-level lapse rates and weak downdrafts will augment 30-40 kt flow in the mixed layer and contribute to surface gusts of 45-60 mph, with the potential for minor wind damage. ...Elsewhere... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible this afternoon/evening from southwest CO into northern NM and vicinity, within a modest midlevel moisture plume where weak buoyancy will be possible with afternoon heating. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur over the Sierra Nevada and east Texas. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/15/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active severe weather pattern expected through at least this weekend, before predictability diminishes early next week. ...D4/Friday... Guidance remains consistent with a broad swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Great Lakes, downstream of a longwave trough from northern ON to the Lower CO Valley. This will overlap a similarly oriented surface front. In response to increasing mid-level height falls, a surface cyclone should track across the central Great Lakes portion of the baroclinic zone during the day. Afternoon severe may be focused in this region with stronger low-level shear. Parts of this region may warrant higher probabilities in later outlooks. Farther southwest, a pronounced EML may delay the bulk of storm development along the front until evening. But given the strong deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy, scattered severe storms appear possible. ...D5/Saturday... Amplification of an embedded northern-stream shortwave impulse over ON/QC should sustain an expansive swath of strong mid-level flow from the OH Valley northeastward. The northeast extent of appreciable instability overlapping with this regime becomes nebulous east of the Appalachians, but scattered severe storms seem possible from the Cumberland Plateau into the Mid-South on Saturday afternoon to evening. Over the southern Great Plains, lingering convection Saturday morning renders uncertainty along the largely stalling baroclinic zone that will undoubtedly be modified by convective outflow. But with greater consistency in guidance handling the pivot of the basal shortwave impulse across the Southwest, multiple rounds of strong to severe convection are plausible through Saturday night. ...D6/Sunday... Predictability lessens by this period with the evolution of compact shortwave trough ejecting onto the southern Great Plains. This yields substantial spread in the attendant synoptic cyclone. In addition, potentially extensive ongoing convection Sunday morning further lessens confidence in mesoscale details. But a belt of potentially very strong mid-level southwesterlies overlapping rich western Gulf moisture supports inclusion of a severe-area highlight in the South-Central States. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active severe weather pattern expected through at least this weekend, before predictability diminishes early next week. ...D4/Friday... Guidance remains consistent with a broad swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Great Lakes, downstream of a longwave trough from northern ON to the Lower CO Valley. This will overlap a similarly oriented surface front. In response to increasing mid-level height falls, a surface cyclone should track across the central Great Lakes portion of the baroclinic zone during the day. Afternoon severe may be focused in this region with stronger low-level shear. Parts of this region may warrant higher probabilities in later outlooks. Farther southwest, a pronounced EML may delay the bulk of storm development along the front until evening. But given the strong deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy, scattered severe storms appear possible. ...D5/Saturday... Amplification of an embedded northern-stream shortwave impulse over ON/QC should sustain an expansive swath of strong mid-level flow from the OH Valley northeastward. The northeast extent of appreciable instability overlapping with this regime becomes nebulous east of the Appalachians, but scattered severe storms seem possible from the Cumberland Plateau into the Mid-South on Saturday afternoon to evening. Over the southern Great Plains, lingering convection Saturday morning renders uncertainty along the largely stalling baroclinic zone that will undoubtedly be modified by convective outflow. But with greater consistency in guidance handling the pivot of the basal shortwave impulse across the Southwest, multiple rounds of strong to severe convection are plausible through Saturday night. ...D6/Sunday... Predictability lessens by this period with the evolution of compact shortwave trough ejecting onto the southern Great Plains. This yields substantial spread in the attendant synoptic cyclone. In addition, potentially extensive ongoing convection Sunday morning further lessens confidence in mesoscale details. But a belt of potentially very strong mid-level southwesterlies overlapping rich western Gulf moisture supports inclusion of a severe-area highlight in the South-Central States. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active severe weather pattern expected through at least this weekend, before predictability diminishes early next week. ...D4/Friday... Guidance remains consistent with a broad swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Great Lakes, downstream of a longwave trough from northern ON to the Lower CO Valley. This will overlap a similarly oriented surface front. In response to increasing mid-level height falls, a surface cyclone should track across the central Great Lakes portion of the baroclinic zone during the day. Afternoon severe may be focused in this region with stronger low-level shear. Parts of this region may warrant higher probabilities in later outlooks. Farther southwest, a pronounced EML may delay the bulk of storm development along the front until evening. But given the strong deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy, scattered severe storms appear possible. ...D5/Saturday... Amplification of an embedded northern-stream shortwave impulse over ON/QC should sustain an expansive swath of strong mid-level flow from the OH Valley northeastward. The northeast extent of appreciable instability overlapping with this regime becomes nebulous east of the Appalachians, but scattered severe storms seem possible from the Cumberland Plateau into the Mid-South on Saturday afternoon to evening. Over the southern Great Plains, lingering convection Saturday morning renders uncertainty along the largely stalling baroclinic zone that will undoubtedly be modified by convective outflow. But with greater consistency in guidance handling the pivot of the basal shortwave impulse across the Southwest, multiple rounds of strong to severe convection are plausible through Saturday night. ...D6/Sunday... Predictability lessens by this period with the evolution of compact shortwave trough ejecting onto the southern Great Plains. This yields substantial spread in the attendant synoptic cyclone. In addition, potentially extensive ongoing convection Sunday morning further lessens confidence in mesoscale details. But a belt of potentially very strong mid-level southwesterlies overlapping rich western Gulf moisture supports inclusion of a severe-area highlight in the South-Central States. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active severe weather pattern expected through at least this weekend, before predictability diminishes early next week. ...D4/Friday... Guidance remains consistent with a broad swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Great Lakes, downstream of a longwave trough from northern ON to the Lower CO Valley. This will overlap a similarly oriented surface front. In response to increasing mid-level height falls, a surface cyclone should track across the central Great Lakes portion of the baroclinic zone during the day. Afternoon severe may be focused in this region with stronger low-level shear. Parts of this region may warrant higher probabilities in later outlooks. Farther southwest, a pronounced EML may delay the bulk of storm development along the front until evening. But given the strong deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy, scattered severe storms appear possible. ...D5/Saturday... Amplification of an embedded northern-stream shortwave impulse over ON/QC should sustain an expansive swath of strong mid-level flow from the OH Valley northeastward. The northeast extent of appreciable instability overlapping with this regime becomes nebulous east of the Appalachians, but scattered severe storms seem possible from the Cumberland Plateau into the Mid-South on Saturday afternoon to evening. Over the southern Great Plains, lingering convection Saturday morning renders uncertainty along the largely stalling baroclinic zone that will undoubtedly be modified by convective outflow. But with greater consistency in guidance handling the pivot of the basal shortwave impulse across the Southwest, multiple rounds of strong to severe convection are plausible through Saturday night. ...D6/Sunday... Predictability lessens by this period with the evolution of compact shortwave trough ejecting onto the southern Great Plains. This yields substantial spread in the attendant synoptic cyclone. In addition, potentially extensive ongoing convection Sunday morning further lessens confidence in mesoscale details. But a belt of potentially very strong mid-level southwesterlies overlapping rich western Gulf moisture supports inclusion of a severe-area highlight in the South-Central States. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active severe weather pattern expected through at least this weekend, before predictability diminishes early next week. ...D4/Friday... Guidance remains consistent with a broad swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Great Lakes, downstream of a longwave trough from northern ON to the Lower CO Valley. This will overlap a similarly oriented surface front. In response to increasing mid-level height falls, a surface cyclone should track across the central Great Lakes portion of the baroclinic zone during the day. Afternoon severe may be focused in this region with stronger low-level shear. Parts of this region may warrant higher probabilities in later outlooks. Farther southwest, a pronounced EML may delay the bulk of storm development along the front until evening. But given the strong deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy, scattered severe storms appear possible. ...D5/Saturday... Amplification of an embedded northern-stream shortwave impulse over ON/QC should sustain an expansive swath of strong mid-level flow from the OH Valley northeastward. The northeast extent of appreciable instability overlapping with this regime becomes nebulous east of the Appalachians, but scattered severe storms seem possible from the Cumberland Plateau into the Mid-South on Saturday afternoon to evening. Over the southern Great Plains, lingering convection Saturday morning renders uncertainty along the largely stalling baroclinic zone that will undoubtedly be modified by convective outflow. But with greater consistency in guidance handling the pivot of the basal shortwave impulse across the Southwest, multiple rounds of strong to severe convection are plausible through Saturday night. ...D6/Sunday... Predictability lessens by this period with the evolution of compact shortwave trough ejecting onto the southern Great Plains. This yields substantial spread in the attendant synoptic cyclone. In addition, potentially extensive ongoing convection Sunday morning further lessens confidence in mesoscale details. But a belt of potentially very strong mid-level southwesterlies overlapping rich western Gulf moisture supports inclusion of a severe-area highlight in the South-Central States. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active severe weather pattern expected through at least this weekend, before predictability diminishes early next week. ...D4/Friday... Guidance remains consistent with a broad swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Great Lakes, downstream of a longwave trough from northern ON to the Lower CO Valley. This will overlap a similarly oriented surface front. In response to increasing mid-level height falls, a surface cyclone should track across the central Great Lakes portion of the baroclinic zone during the day. Afternoon severe may be focused in this region with stronger low-level shear. Parts of this region may warrant higher probabilities in later outlooks. Farther southwest, a pronounced EML may delay the bulk of storm development along the front until evening. But given the strong deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy, scattered severe storms appear possible. ...D5/Saturday... Amplification of an embedded northern-stream shortwave impulse over ON/QC should sustain an expansive swath of strong mid-level flow from the OH Valley northeastward. The northeast extent of appreciable instability overlapping with this regime becomes nebulous east of the Appalachians, but scattered severe storms seem possible from the Cumberland Plateau into the Mid-South on Saturday afternoon to evening. Over the southern Great Plains, lingering convection Saturday morning renders uncertainty along the largely stalling baroclinic zone that will undoubtedly be modified by convective outflow. But with greater consistency in guidance handling the pivot of the basal shortwave impulse across the Southwest, multiple rounds of strong to severe convection are plausible through Saturday night. ...D6/Sunday... Predictability lessens by this period with the evolution of compact shortwave trough ejecting onto the southern Great Plains. This yields substantial spread in the attendant synoptic cyclone. In addition, potentially extensive ongoing convection Sunday morning further lessens confidence in mesoscale details. But a belt of potentially very strong mid-level southwesterlies overlapping rich western Gulf moisture supports inclusion of a severe-area highlight in the South-Central States. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active severe weather pattern expected through at least this weekend, before predictability diminishes early next week. ...D4/Friday... Guidance remains consistent with a broad swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Great Lakes, downstream of a longwave trough from northern ON to the Lower CO Valley. This will overlap a similarly oriented surface front. In response to increasing mid-level height falls, a surface cyclone should track across the central Great Lakes portion of the baroclinic zone during the day. Afternoon severe may be focused in this region with stronger low-level shear. Parts of this region may warrant higher probabilities in later outlooks. Farther southwest, a pronounced EML may delay the bulk of storm development along the front until evening. But given the strong deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy, scattered severe storms appear possible. ...D5/Saturday... Amplification of an embedded northern-stream shortwave impulse over ON/QC should sustain an expansive swath of strong mid-level flow from the OH Valley northeastward. The northeast extent of appreciable instability overlapping with this regime becomes nebulous east of the Appalachians, but scattered severe storms seem possible from the Cumberland Plateau into the Mid-South on Saturday afternoon to evening. Over the southern Great Plains, lingering convection Saturday morning renders uncertainty along the largely stalling baroclinic zone that will undoubtedly be modified by convective outflow. But with greater consistency in guidance handling the pivot of the basal shortwave impulse across the Southwest, multiple rounds of strong to severe convection are plausible through Saturday night. ...D6/Sunday... Predictability lessens by this period with the evolution of compact shortwave trough ejecting onto the southern Great Plains. This yields substantial spread in the attendant synoptic cyclone. In addition, potentially extensive ongoing convection Sunday morning further lessens confidence in mesoscale details. But a belt of potentially very strong mid-level southwesterlies overlapping rich western Gulf moisture supports inclusion of a severe-area highlight in the South-Central States. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN IA/NORTHERN MO/EASTERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail, are possible on Thursday evening/night, centered on eastern Nebraska, northern Missouri, and Iowa. ...Synopsis... A longwave trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will become established from the southern Prairie Provinces across the West to off the Baja CA coast. Peak surface cyclone amplitude is expected over western KS on Thursday afternoon, with a surface trough/baroclinic zone extending north-northeast into MN. A dryline will arc across eastern KS into the southern Great Plains. The cyclone will fill as it tracks east-northeast along the baroclinic zone towards the MO/IA border area Thursday night. ...IA/MO/NE... Along the leading edge of a stout EML and effective 700-mb warm front, isolated to scattered elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of the Lower MO Valley. This activity may persist eastward through the morning and pose a threat for isolated severe hail. Neutral mid-level height change is anticipated in its wake, likely confining early evening surface-based storm potential to immediately downstream of the triple-point region in the KS/NE/MO/IA border area. While the spatial extent of MLCIN away from the dryline is a concern, another day of modifying moisture return northward from the western Gulf should yield a confined plume of upper 50s surface dew points and moderate buoyancy. A veering wind profile with height will foster strong deep-layer shear and supercell potential. As the low-level jet becomes rather strong across OK/KS/MO, greater convective coverage is anticipated Thursday night. Elevated storms producing large hail should be the primary hazard from the post-frontal environment in central/eastern NE to across the Mid-MS Valley by early morning Friday. ..Grams.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN IA/NORTHERN MO/EASTERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail, are possible on Thursday evening/night, centered on eastern Nebraska, northern Missouri, and Iowa. ...Synopsis... A longwave trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will become established from the southern Prairie Provinces across the West to off the Baja CA coast. Peak surface cyclone amplitude is expected over western KS on Thursday afternoon, with a surface trough/baroclinic zone extending north-northeast into MN. A dryline will arc across eastern KS into the southern Great Plains. The cyclone will fill as it tracks east-northeast along the baroclinic zone towards the MO/IA border area Thursday night. ...IA/MO/NE... Along the leading edge of a stout EML and effective 700-mb warm front, isolated to scattered elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of the Lower MO Valley. This activity may persist eastward through the morning and pose a threat for isolated severe hail. Neutral mid-level height change is anticipated in its wake, likely confining early evening surface-based storm potential to immediately downstream of the triple-point region in the KS/NE/MO/IA border area. While the spatial extent of MLCIN away from the dryline is a concern, another day of modifying moisture return northward from the western Gulf should yield a confined plume of upper 50s surface dew points and moderate buoyancy. A veering wind profile with height will foster strong deep-layer shear and supercell potential. As the low-level jet becomes rather strong across OK/KS/MO, greater convective coverage is anticipated Thursday night. Elevated storms producing large hail should be the primary hazard from the post-frontal environment in central/eastern NE to across the Mid-MS Valley by early morning Friday. ..Grams.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN IA/NORTHERN MO/EASTERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail, are possible on Thursday evening/night, centered on eastern Nebraska, northern Missouri, and Iowa. ...Synopsis... A longwave trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will become established from the southern Prairie Provinces across the West to off the Baja CA coast. Peak surface cyclone amplitude is expected over western KS on Thursday afternoon, with a surface trough/baroclinic zone extending north-northeast into MN. A dryline will arc across eastern KS into the southern Great Plains. The cyclone will fill as it tracks east-northeast along the baroclinic zone towards the MO/IA border area Thursday night. ...IA/MO/NE... Along the leading edge of a stout EML and effective 700-mb warm front, isolated to scattered elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of the Lower MO Valley. This activity may persist eastward through the morning and pose a threat for isolated severe hail. Neutral mid-level height change is anticipated in its wake, likely confining early evening surface-based storm potential to immediately downstream of the triple-point region in the KS/NE/MO/IA border area. While the spatial extent of MLCIN away from the dryline is a concern, another day of modifying moisture return northward from the western Gulf should yield a confined plume of upper 50s surface dew points and moderate buoyancy. A veering wind profile with height will foster strong deep-layer shear and supercell potential. As the low-level jet becomes rather strong across OK/KS/MO, greater convective coverage is anticipated Thursday night. Elevated storms producing large hail should be the primary hazard from the post-frontal environment in central/eastern NE to across the Mid-MS Valley by early morning Friday. ..Grams.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN IA/NORTHERN MO/EASTERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail, are possible on Thursday evening/night, centered on eastern Nebraska, northern Missouri, and Iowa. ...Synopsis... A longwave trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will become established from the southern Prairie Provinces across the West to off the Baja CA coast. Peak surface cyclone amplitude is expected over western KS on Thursday afternoon, with a surface trough/baroclinic zone extending north-northeast into MN. A dryline will arc across eastern KS into the southern Great Plains. The cyclone will fill as it tracks east-northeast along the baroclinic zone towards the MO/IA border area Thursday night. ...IA/MO/NE... Along the leading edge of a stout EML and effective 700-mb warm front, isolated to scattered elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of the Lower MO Valley. This activity may persist eastward through the morning and pose a threat for isolated severe hail. Neutral mid-level height change is anticipated in its wake, likely confining early evening surface-based storm potential to immediately downstream of the triple-point region in the KS/NE/MO/IA border area. While the spatial extent of MLCIN away from the dryline is a concern, another day of modifying moisture return northward from the western Gulf should yield a confined plume of upper 50s surface dew points and moderate buoyancy. A veering wind profile with height will foster strong deep-layer shear and supercell potential. As the low-level jet becomes rather strong across OK/KS/MO, greater convective coverage is anticipated Thursday night. Elevated storms producing large hail should be the primary hazard from the post-frontal environment in central/eastern NE to across the Mid-MS Valley by early morning Friday. ..Grams.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN IA/NORTHERN MO/EASTERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail, are possible on Thursday evening/night, centered on eastern Nebraska, northern Missouri, and Iowa. ...Synopsis... A longwave trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will become established from the southern Prairie Provinces across the West to off the Baja CA coast. Peak surface cyclone amplitude is expected over western KS on Thursday afternoon, with a surface trough/baroclinic zone extending north-northeast into MN. A dryline will arc across eastern KS into the southern Great Plains. The cyclone will fill as it tracks east-northeast along the baroclinic zone towards the MO/IA border area Thursday night. ...IA/MO/NE... Along the leading edge of a stout EML and effective 700-mb warm front, isolated to scattered elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of the Lower MO Valley. This activity may persist eastward through the morning and pose a threat for isolated severe hail. Neutral mid-level height change is anticipated in its wake, likely confining early evening surface-based storm potential to immediately downstream of the triple-point region in the KS/NE/MO/IA border area. While the spatial extent of MLCIN away from the dryline is a concern, another day of modifying moisture return northward from the western Gulf should yield a confined plume of upper 50s surface dew points and moderate buoyancy. A veering wind profile with height will foster strong deep-layer shear and supercell potential. As the low-level jet becomes rather strong across OK/KS/MO, greater convective coverage is anticipated Thursday night. Elevated storms producing large hail should be the primary hazard from the post-frontal environment in central/eastern NE to across the Mid-MS Valley by early morning Friday. ..Grams.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN IA/NORTHERN MO/EASTERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail, are possible on Thursday evening/night, centered on eastern Nebraska, northern Missouri, and Iowa. ...Synopsis... A longwave trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will become established from the southern Prairie Provinces across the West to off the Baja CA coast. Peak surface cyclone amplitude is expected over western KS on Thursday afternoon, with a surface trough/baroclinic zone extending north-northeast into MN. A dryline will arc across eastern KS into the southern Great Plains. The cyclone will fill as it tracks east-northeast along the baroclinic zone towards the MO/IA border area Thursday night. ...IA/MO/NE... Along the leading edge of a stout EML and effective 700-mb warm front, isolated to scattered elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of the Lower MO Valley. This activity may persist eastward through the morning and pose a threat for isolated severe hail. Neutral mid-level height change is anticipated in its wake, likely confining early evening surface-based storm potential to immediately downstream of the triple-point region in the KS/NE/MO/IA border area. While the spatial extent of MLCIN away from the dryline is a concern, another day of modifying moisture return northward from the western Gulf should yield a confined plume of upper 50s surface dew points and moderate buoyancy. A veering wind profile with height will foster strong deep-layer shear and supercell potential. As the low-level jet becomes rather strong across OK/KS/MO, greater convective coverage is anticipated Thursday night. Elevated storms producing large hail should be the primary hazard from the post-frontal environment in central/eastern NE to across the Mid-MS Valley by early morning Friday. ..Grams.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... An upper low off the southern California coast will begin to phase with a trough within the Northwest. Strong mid-level winds will develop over the Southwest by late afternoon. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas border. ...Southwest... A broad area of elevated to critical fire weather is expected from southern/eastern Arizona into much of New Mexico and parts of southeast Colorado. Strong mid-level winds and the deepening surface low will combine to promote 15-25 mph surface winds (highest in terrain-favored areas). Critical fire weather is most likely to occur from southeast Arizona into southwest/west-central New Mexico. Here, strong winds will combine with areas of 5-15% RH. Elsewhere within the region, combinations of weaker winds and slightly higher RH (10-20%) will preclude critical highlights. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... An upper low off the southern California coast will begin to phase with a trough within the Northwest. Strong mid-level winds will develop over the Southwest by late afternoon. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas border. ...Southwest... A broad area of elevated to critical fire weather is expected from southern/eastern Arizona into much of New Mexico and parts of southeast Colorado. Strong mid-level winds and the deepening surface low will combine to promote 15-25 mph surface winds (highest in terrain-favored areas). Critical fire weather is most likely to occur from southeast Arizona into southwest/west-central New Mexico. Here, strong winds will combine with areas of 5-15% RH. Elsewhere within the region, combinations of weaker winds and slightly higher RH (10-20%) will preclude critical highlights. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more