Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. ...Central Great Lakes to the Southern Great Plains... Overall forecast scenario remains consistent to prior days with an expansive swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies, downstream of a longwave trough from northern ON to the Southwest. This will overlap a similarly oriented surface front, with a cyclone tracking across the central Great Lakes portion of the baroclinic zone during the day and a separate low anchored over the southern High Plains. Mid-level height change appears largely neutral during the first half of the period, with weak height falls Friday night. A corridor of elevated thunderstorms across the far northern portion of the outlook area may be ongoing Friday morning. These could pose a risk of severe hail downstream through the day. With a pronounced EML across much of the warm sector, storm development may be delayed until late afternoon to early evening. Guidance also hints at mid to upper-level cloud coverage curtailing boundary-layer heating and weakening lapse rates aloft across the southern Great Plains, along with pockets of more shallow boundary-layer moisture near the dryline. Latest trends are for storm development generally along and to the cool side of the stalled to slowing surface front from OK to the Mid-MS Valley on Friday evening. Increasing storm coverage is anticipated Friday night northeastward into the central Great Lakes and southward in TX. Convection may predominately organize into clusters in this setup, with strong deep-layer shear supporting a mix of scattered large hail and damaging winds. ..Grams.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. ...Central Great Lakes to the Southern Great Plains... Overall forecast scenario remains consistent to prior days with an expansive swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies, downstream of a longwave trough from northern ON to the Southwest. This will overlap a similarly oriented surface front, with a cyclone tracking across the central Great Lakes portion of the baroclinic zone during the day and a separate low anchored over the southern High Plains. Mid-level height change appears largely neutral during the first half of the period, with weak height falls Friday night. A corridor of elevated thunderstorms across the far northern portion of the outlook area may be ongoing Friday morning. These could pose a risk of severe hail downstream through the day. With a pronounced EML across much of the warm sector, storm development may be delayed until late afternoon to early evening. Guidance also hints at mid to upper-level cloud coverage curtailing boundary-layer heating and weakening lapse rates aloft across the southern Great Plains, along with pockets of more shallow boundary-layer moisture near the dryline. Latest trends are for storm development generally along and to the cool side of the stalled to slowing surface front from OK to the Mid-MS Valley on Friday evening. Increasing storm coverage is anticipated Friday night northeastward into the central Great Lakes and southward in TX. Convection may predominately organize into clusters in this setup, with strong deep-layer shear supporting a mix of scattered large hail and damaging winds. ..Grams.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue its slow progression eastward on Thursday. Mid-level winds will increase and peak during the afternoon in New Mexico. A deep surface low will develop in eastern Colorado into western Kansas. A cold front will move southward into the central Plains by late afternoon. ...New Mexico... A significant fire weather event is expected across much of New Mexico. Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph appear likely, particularly in portions of central and northeastern New Mexico. Wind gusts with the mid-level jet overhead will approach 50-60 mph. ERC data shows much of this region at or above the 90th percentile due to ongoing severe drought. A swath of 5-10% RH is also probable during the afternoon. These conditions will promote extreme fire behavior should any ignitions occur. ...Southern High Plains... RH values near 10% are expected to extend into parts of eastern Colorado, western/central Kansas, and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Strong winds of 20-30 mph are also expected. The strongest winds are expected from the northwest Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into southeast Colorado and far southwest Kansas. Strong downslope winds will extend into parts of the central Front Range. Critical fire weather will occur where the strongest winds overlap with sufficiently dry fuels. The critical highlights have been kept out of parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains where greenup will mitigate fuel receptiveness. Elsewhere, elevated to critical fire weather can be expect for several hours. The northern extent of the greatest fire weather risk will be delineated by the southward moving cold front. Some areas of northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas will see elevated to briefly critical conditions before winds shift to the north and RH rises. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue its slow progression eastward on Thursday. Mid-level winds will increase and peak during the afternoon in New Mexico. A deep surface low will develop in eastern Colorado into western Kansas. A cold front will move southward into the central Plains by late afternoon. ...New Mexico... A significant fire weather event is expected across much of New Mexico. Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph appear likely, particularly in portions of central and northeastern New Mexico. Wind gusts with the mid-level jet overhead will approach 50-60 mph. ERC data shows much of this region at or above the 90th percentile due to ongoing severe drought. A swath of 5-10% RH is also probable during the afternoon. These conditions will promote extreme fire behavior should any ignitions occur. ...Southern High Plains... RH values near 10% are expected to extend into parts of eastern Colorado, western/central Kansas, and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Strong winds of 20-30 mph are also expected. The strongest winds are expected from the northwest Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into southeast Colorado and far southwest Kansas. Strong downslope winds will extend into parts of the central Front Range. Critical fire weather will occur where the strongest winds overlap with sufficiently dry fuels. The critical highlights have been kept out of parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains where greenup will mitigate fuel receptiveness. Elsewhere, elevated to critical fire weather can be expect for several hours. The northern extent of the greatest fire weather risk will be delineated by the southward moving cold front. Some areas of northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas will see elevated to briefly critical conditions before winds shift to the north and RH rises. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue its slow progression eastward on Thursday. Mid-level winds will increase and peak during the afternoon in New Mexico. A deep surface low will develop in eastern Colorado into western Kansas. A cold front will move southward into the central Plains by late afternoon. ...New Mexico... A significant fire weather event is expected across much of New Mexico. Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph appear likely, particularly in portions of central and northeastern New Mexico. Wind gusts with the mid-level jet overhead will approach 50-60 mph. ERC data shows much of this region at or above the 90th percentile due to ongoing severe drought. A swath of 5-10% RH is also probable during the afternoon. These conditions will promote extreme fire behavior should any ignitions occur. ...Southern High Plains... RH values near 10% are expected to extend into parts of eastern Colorado, western/central Kansas, and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Strong winds of 20-30 mph are also expected. The strongest winds are expected from the northwest Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into southeast Colorado and far southwest Kansas. Strong downslope winds will extend into parts of the central Front Range. Critical fire weather will occur where the strongest winds overlap with sufficiently dry fuels. The critical highlights have been kept out of parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains where greenup will mitigate fuel receptiveness. Elsewhere, elevated to critical fire weather can be expect for several hours. The northern extent of the greatest fire weather risk will be delineated by the southward moving cold front. Some areas of northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas will see elevated to briefly critical conditions before winds shift to the north and RH rises. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue its slow progression eastward on Thursday. Mid-level winds will increase and peak during the afternoon in New Mexico. A deep surface low will develop in eastern Colorado into western Kansas. A cold front will move southward into the central Plains by late afternoon. ...New Mexico... A significant fire weather event is expected across much of New Mexico. Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph appear likely, particularly in portions of central and northeastern New Mexico. Wind gusts with the mid-level jet overhead will approach 50-60 mph. ERC data shows much of this region at or above the 90th percentile due to ongoing severe drought. A swath of 5-10% RH is also probable during the afternoon. These conditions will promote extreme fire behavior should any ignitions occur. ...Southern High Plains... RH values near 10% are expected to extend into parts of eastern Colorado, western/central Kansas, and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Strong winds of 20-30 mph are also expected. The strongest winds are expected from the northwest Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into southeast Colorado and far southwest Kansas. Strong downslope winds will extend into parts of the central Front Range. Critical fire weather will occur where the strongest winds overlap with sufficiently dry fuels. The critical highlights have been kept out of parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains where greenup will mitigate fuel receptiveness. Elsewhere, elevated to critical fire weather can be expect for several hours. The northern extent of the greatest fire weather risk will be delineated by the southward moving cold front. Some areas of northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas will see elevated to briefly critical conditions before winds shift to the north and RH rises. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA AND MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will evolve from an upper low off the southern California coast today. This will drive increasing mid-level winds across much of the Southwest. East of the Divide, surface lee troughing will increase through the day. ...Eastern Arizona into New Mexico into southern High Plains... The strongest mid-level winds will not arrive until the evening, but moderate flow will be ongoing during the afternoon. Coupled with the lee trough to the east, 15-25 mph winds are possible across a broad portion of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. The strongest winds are expected in eastern Arizona and New Mexico. RH of 10-15% (locally 5-10%) in these areas will promote a critical fire weather threat. ...Central High Plains... With an extension of the lee trough into western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming, a zone of 15-20 mph downslope winds will develop during the afternoon. RH of 10-20% appears possible. Elevated fire weather is expected this afternoon. ...Mid-Missouri Valley... Southerly/southeasterly winds will reach 15-20 mph during the late morning to mid-afternoon. Model variance in terms of the RH during the afternoon is large. This is likely due to uncertainty in the amount of surface heating with mid/upper-level clouds in the region. Fuels will at least support a locally elevated fire weather threat. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA AND MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will evolve from an upper low off the southern California coast today. This will drive increasing mid-level winds across much of the Southwest. East of the Divide, surface lee troughing will increase through the day. ...Eastern Arizona into New Mexico into southern High Plains... The strongest mid-level winds will not arrive until the evening, but moderate flow will be ongoing during the afternoon. Coupled with the lee trough to the east, 15-25 mph winds are possible across a broad portion of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. The strongest winds are expected in eastern Arizona and New Mexico. RH of 10-15% (locally 5-10%) in these areas will promote a critical fire weather threat. ...Central High Plains... With an extension of the lee trough into western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming, a zone of 15-20 mph downslope winds will develop during the afternoon. RH of 10-20% appears possible. Elevated fire weather is expected this afternoon. ...Mid-Missouri Valley... Southerly/southeasterly winds will reach 15-20 mph during the late morning to mid-afternoon. Model variance in terms of the RH during the afternoon is large. This is likely due to uncertainty in the amount of surface heating with mid/upper-level clouds in the region. Fuels will at least support a locally elevated fire weather threat. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA AND MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will evolve from an upper low off the southern California coast today. This will drive increasing mid-level winds across much of the Southwest. East of the Divide, surface lee troughing will increase through the day. ...Eastern Arizona into New Mexico into southern High Plains... The strongest mid-level winds will not arrive until the evening, but moderate flow will be ongoing during the afternoon. Coupled with the lee trough to the east, 15-25 mph winds are possible across a broad portion of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. The strongest winds are expected in eastern Arizona and New Mexico. RH of 10-15% (locally 5-10%) in these areas will promote a critical fire weather threat. ...Central High Plains... With an extension of the lee trough into western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming, a zone of 15-20 mph downslope winds will develop during the afternoon. RH of 10-20% appears possible. Elevated fire weather is expected this afternoon. ...Mid-Missouri Valley... Southerly/southeasterly winds will reach 15-20 mph during the late morning to mid-afternoon. Model variance in terms of the RH during the afternoon is large. This is likely due to uncertainty in the amount of surface heating with mid/upper-level clouds in the region. Fuels will at least support a locally elevated fire weather threat. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA AND MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will evolve from an upper low off the southern California coast today. This will drive increasing mid-level winds across much of the Southwest. East of the Divide, surface lee troughing will increase through the day. ...Eastern Arizona into New Mexico into southern High Plains... The strongest mid-level winds will not arrive until the evening, but moderate flow will be ongoing during the afternoon. Coupled with the lee trough to the east, 15-25 mph winds are possible across a broad portion of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. The strongest winds are expected in eastern Arizona and New Mexico. RH of 10-15% (locally 5-10%) in these areas will promote a critical fire weather threat. ...Central High Plains... With an extension of the lee trough into western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming, a zone of 15-20 mph downslope winds will develop during the afternoon. RH of 10-20% appears possible. Elevated fire weather is expected this afternoon. ...Mid-Missouri Valley... Southerly/southeasterly winds will reach 15-20 mph during the late morning to mid-afternoon. Model variance in terms of the RH during the afternoon is large. This is likely due to uncertainty in the amount of surface heating with mid/upper-level clouds in the region. Fuels will at least support a locally elevated fire weather threat. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA AND MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will evolve from an upper low off the southern California coast today. This will drive increasing mid-level winds across much of the Southwest. East of the Divide, surface lee troughing will increase through the day. ...Eastern Arizona into New Mexico into southern High Plains... The strongest mid-level winds will not arrive until the evening, but moderate flow will be ongoing during the afternoon. Coupled with the lee trough to the east, 15-25 mph winds are possible across a broad portion of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. The strongest winds are expected in eastern Arizona and New Mexico. RH of 10-15% (locally 5-10%) in these areas will promote a critical fire weather threat. ...Central High Plains... With an extension of the lee trough into western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming, a zone of 15-20 mph downslope winds will develop during the afternoon. RH of 10-20% appears possible. Elevated fire weather is expected this afternoon. ...Mid-Missouri Valley... Southerly/southeasterly winds will reach 15-20 mph during the late morning to mid-afternoon. Model variance in terms of the RH during the afternoon is large. This is likely due to uncertainty in the amount of surface heating with mid/upper-level clouds in the region. Fuels will at least support a locally elevated fire weather threat. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CORN BELT STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the Corn Belt States. Large to very large hail, a couple tornadoes, and localized damaging winds may occur. ...Synopsis... A longwave trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will drift east from the southern Prairie Provinces to the Lower CO Valley. A lee surface cyclone will be anchored over the central High Plains. Minor, triple-point surface waves are expected along the baroclinic zone in far northeast KS and southern MN on Thursday afternoon. ...Corn Belt States... Along the leading edge of a stout EML and 700-mb warm front, isolated to scattered elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of the lower MO Valley. This activity may pose a threat for isolated severe hail before weakening towards midday. Neutral mid-level height change is anticipated in its wake along the aforementioned baroclinic zone. Low-level warm theta-e advection and convergence along the front will be primary drivers of convective potential from late afternoon into Thursday night. Guidance spread is quite large for a D2 forecast with the thermodynamic setup ahead of the front, especially across IA to the northeast of the triple-point dryline intersection in northeast KS. The 00Z NAM is around 20 F cooler with surface temps at peak heating relative to the bulk of guidance that have very warm and well-mixed boundary layers. This has substantial impact on the spatial extent and amplitude of MLCAPE/MLCIN ahead of the front. It seems probable that mid to upper 50s surface dew points will spread as far north as southern MN. With a lean towards the more well-mixed guidance, this should support a corridor of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg. The most probable signal for late-afternoon storm development is along the baroclinic zone from southeast NE into southern MN, coincident with supercell wind profiles. Weak low-level winds initially in the southeast NE region could support a long-track supercell capable of producing a very large hail swath. Otherwise, severe to sporadic significant severe hail seems plausible with late afternoon to early evening storms, along with localized severe gusts and a low-confidence tornado threat. Coverage of elevated storms may remain subdued on Thursday night. Despite a strong low-level jet across OK/KS to the Mid-MS Valley, restrengthening of the EML may inhibit sustained storms. Conditionally, the environment will support elevated supercells with a primary threat of large hail. ..Grams.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CORN BELT STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the Corn Belt States. Large to very large hail, a couple tornadoes, and localized damaging winds may occur. ...Synopsis... A longwave trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will drift east from the southern Prairie Provinces to the Lower CO Valley. A lee surface cyclone will be anchored over the central High Plains. Minor, triple-point surface waves are expected along the baroclinic zone in far northeast KS and southern MN on Thursday afternoon. ...Corn Belt States... Along the leading edge of a stout EML and 700-mb warm front, isolated to scattered elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of the lower MO Valley. This activity may pose a threat for isolated severe hail before weakening towards midday. Neutral mid-level height change is anticipated in its wake along the aforementioned baroclinic zone. Low-level warm theta-e advection and convergence along the front will be primary drivers of convective potential from late afternoon into Thursday night. Guidance spread is quite large for a D2 forecast with the thermodynamic setup ahead of the front, especially across IA to the northeast of the triple-point dryline intersection in northeast KS. The 00Z NAM is around 20 F cooler with surface temps at peak heating relative to the bulk of guidance that have very warm and well-mixed boundary layers. This has substantial impact on the spatial extent and amplitude of MLCAPE/MLCIN ahead of the front. It seems probable that mid to upper 50s surface dew points will spread as far north as southern MN. With a lean towards the more well-mixed guidance, this should support a corridor of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg. The most probable signal for late-afternoon storm development is along the baroclinic zone from southeast NE into southern MN, coincident with supercell wind profiles. Weak low-level winds initially in the southeast NE region could support a long-track supercell capable of producing a very large hail swath. Otherwise, severe to sporadic significant severe hail seems plausible with late afternoon to early evening storms, along with localized severe gusts and a low-confidence tornado threat. Coverage of elevated storms may remain subdued on Thursday night. Despite a strong low-level jet across OK/KS to the Mid-MS Valley, restrengthening of the EML may inhibit sustained storms. Conditionally, the environment will support elevated supercells with a primary threat of large hail. ..Grams.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CORN BELT STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the Corn Belt States. Large to very large hail, a couple tornadoes, and localized damaging winds may occur. ...Synopsis... A longwave trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will drift east from the southern Prairie Provinces to the Lower CO Valley. A lee surface cyclone will be anchored over the central High Plains. Minor, triple-point surface waves are expected along the baroclinic zone in far northeast KS and southern MN on Thursday afternoon. ...Corn Belt States... Along the leading edge of a stout EML and 700-mb warm front, isolated to scattered elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of the lower MO Valley. This activity may pose a threat for isolated severe hail before weakening towards midday. Neutral mid-level height change is anticipated in its wake along the aforementioned baroclinic zone. Low-level warm theta-e advection and convergence along the front will be primary drivers of convective potential from late afternoon into Thursday night. Guidance spread is quite large for a D2 forecast with the thermodynamic setup ahead of the front, especially across IA to the northeast of the triple-point dryline intersection in northeast KS. The 00Z NAM is around 20 F cooler with surface temps at peak heating relative to the bulk of guidance that have very warm and well-mixed boundary layers. This has substantial impact on the spatial extent and amplitude of MLCAPE/MLCIN ahead of the front. It seems probable that mid to upper 50s surface dew points will spread as far north as southern MN. With a lean towards the more well-mixed guidance, this should support a corridor of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg. The most probable signal for late-afternoon storm development is along the baroclinic zone from southeast NE into southern MN, coincident with supercell wind profiles. Weak low-level winds initially in the southeast NE region could support a long-track supercell capable of producing a very large hail swath. Otherwise, severe to sporadic significant severe hail seems plausible with late afternoon to early evening storms, along with localized severe gusts and a low-confidence tornado threat. Coverage of elevated storms may remain subdued on Thursday night. Despite a strong low-level jet across OK/KS to the Mid-MS Valley, restrengthening of the EML may inhibit sustained storms. Conditionally, the environment will support elevated supercells with a primary threat of large hail. ..Grams.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CORN BELT STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the Corn Belt States. Large to very large hail, a couple tornadoes, and localized damaging winds may occur. ...Synopsis... A longwave trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will drift east from the southern Prairie Provinces to the Lower CO Valley. A lee surface cyclone will be anchored over the central High Plains. Minor, triple-point surface waves are expected along the baroclinic zone in far northeast KS and southern MN on Thursday afternoon. ...Corn Belt States... Along the leading edge of a stout EML and 700-mb warm front, isolated to scattered elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of the lower MO Valley. This activity may pose a threat for isolated severe hail before weakening towards midday. Neutral mid-level height change is anticipated in its wake along the aforementioned baroclinic zone. Low-level warm theta-e advection and convergence along the front will be primary drivers of convective potential from late afternoon into Thursday night. Guidance spread is quite large for a D2 forecast with the thermodynamic setup ahead of the front, especially across IA to the northeast of the triple-point dryline intersection in northeast KS. The 00Z NAM is around 20 F cooler with surface temps at peak heating relative to the bulk of guidance that have very warm and well-mixed boundary layers. This has substantial impact on the spatial extent and amplitude of MLCAPE/MLCIN ahead of the front. It seems probable that mid to upper 50s surface dew points will spread as far north as southern MN. With a lean towards the more well-mixed guidance, this should support a corridor of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg. The most probable signal for late-afternoon storm development is along the baroclinic zone from southeast NE into southern MN, coincident with supercell wind profiles. Weak low-level winds initially in the southeast NE region could support a long-track supercell capable of producing a very large hail swath. Otherwise, severe to sporadic significant severe hail seems plausible with late afternoon to early evening storms, along with localized severe gusts and a low-confidence tornado threat. Coverage of elevated storms may remain subdued on Thursday night. Despite a strong low-level jet across OK/KS to the Mid-MS Valley, restrengthening of the EML may inhibit sustained storms. Conditionally, the environment will support elevated supercells with a primary threat of large hail. ..Grams.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CORN BELT STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the Corn Belt States. Large to very large hail, a couple tornadoes, and localized damaging winds may occur. ...Synopsis... A longwave trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will drift east from the southern Prairie Provinces to the Lower CO Valley. A lee surface cyclone will be anchored over the central High Plains. Minor, triple-point surface waves are expected along the baroclinic zone in far northeast KS and southern MN on Thursday afternoon. ...Corn Belt States... Along the leading edge of a stout EML and 700-mb warm front, isolated to scattered elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of the lower MO Valley. This activity may pose a threat for isolated severe hail before weakening towards midday. Neutral mid-level height change is anticipated in its wake along the aforementioned baroclinic zone. Low-level warm theta-e advection and convergence along the front will be primary drivers of convective potential from late afternoon into Thursday night. Guidance spread is quite large for a D2 forecast with the thermodynamic setup ahead of the front, especially across IA to the northeast of the triple-point dryline intersection in northeast KS. The 00Z NAM is around 20 F cooler with surface temps at peak heating relative to the bulk of guidance that have very warm and well-mixed boundary layers. This has substantial impact on the spatial extent and amplitude of MLCAPE/MLCIN ahead of the front. It seems probable that mid to upper 50s surface dew points will spread as far north as southern MN. With a lean towards the more well-mixed guidance, this should support a corridor of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg. The most probable signal for late-afternoon storm development is along the baroclinic zone from southeast NE into southern MN, coincident with supercell wind profiles. Weak low-level winds initially in the southeast NE region could support a long-track supercell capable of producing a very large hail swath. Otherwise, severe to sporadic significant severe hail seems plausible with late afternoon to early evening storms, along with localized severe gusts and a low-confidence tornado threat. Coverage of elevated storms may remain subdued on Thursday night. Despite a strong low-level jet across OK/KS to the Mid-MS Valley, restrengthening of the EML may inhibit sustained storms. Conditionally, the environment will support elevated supercells with a primary threat of large hail. ..Grams.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail, are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... A mid-level ridge will move eastward across the Great Plains today, as a surface low develops across northern Nebraska. In the wake of the ridge, moisture advection will increase across the southern and central Plains from late afternoon into the evening. By 00Z/Thursday, a moist axis will be located from central Oklahoma into central Kansas where surface dewpoints are forecast to be mostly in the 50s F. Early this evening, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to rapidly develop from western Oklahoma into west-central Kansas. Lift associated with the jet and low-level convergence near the dryline may be enough for isolated convective initiation. If storms can initiate and grow upscale, then isolated large hail and marginally severe gusts will be possible, aided by steep 700-500 mb lapse rates. During the mid to late evening, the potential for isolated thunderstorms capable of producing hail will likely develop eastward across parts of east-central Kansas and southeast Nebraska. As warm advection increases overnight, the hail threat may eventually affect parts of western Missouri and southwest Nebraska. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail, are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... A mid-level ridge will move eastward across the Great Plains today, as a surface low develops across northern Nebraska. In the wake of the ridge, moisture advection will increase across the southern and central Plains from late afternoon into the evening. By 00Z/Thursday, a moist axis will be located from central Oklahoma into central Kansas where surface dewpoints are forecast to be mostly in the 50s F. Early this evening, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to rapidly develop from western Oklahoma into west-central Kansas. Lift associated with the jet and low-level convergence near the dryline may be enough for isolated convective initiation. If storms can initiate and grow upscale, then isolated large hail and marginally severe gusts will be possible, aided by steep 700-500 mb lapse rates. During the mid to late evening, the potential for isolated thunderstorms capable of producing hail will likely develop eastward across parts of east-central Kansas and southeast Nebraska. As warm advection increases overnight, the hail threat may eventually affect parts of western Missouri and southwest Nebraska. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail, are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... A mid-level ridge will move eastward across the Great Plains today, as a surface low develops across northern Nebraska. In the wake of the ridge, moisture advection will increase across the southern and central Plains from late afternoon into the evening. By 00Z/Thursday, a moist axis will be located from central Oklahoma into central Kansas where surface dewpoints are forecast to be mostly in the 50s F. Early this evening, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to rapidly develop from western Oklahoma into west-central Kansas. Lift associated with the jet and low-level convergence near the dryline may be enough for isolated convective initiation. If storms can initiate and grow upscale, then isolated large hail and marginally severe gusts will be possible, aided by steep 700-500 mb lapse rates. During the mid to late evening, the potential for isolated thunderstorms capable of producing hail will likely develop eastward across parts of east-central Kansas and southeast Nebraska. As warm advection increases overnight, the hail threat may eventually affect parts of western Missouri and southwest Nebraska. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail, are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... A mid-level ridge will move eastward across the Great Plains today, as a surface low develops across northern Nebraska. In the wake of the ridge, moisture advection will increase across the southern and central Plains from late afternoon into the evening. By 00Z/Thursday, a moist axis will be located from central Oklahoma into central Kansas where surface dewpoints are forecast to be mostly in the 50s F. Early this evening, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to rapidly develop from western Oklahoma into west-central Kansas. Lift associated with the jet and low-level convergence near the dryline may be enough for isolated convective initiation. If storms can initiate and grow upscale, then isolated large hail and marginally severe gusts will be possible, aided by steep 700-500 mb lapse rates. During the mid to late evening, the potential for isolated thunderstorms capable of producing hail will likely develop eastward across parts of east-central Kansas and southeast Nebraska. As warm advection increases overnight, the hail threat may eventually affect parts of western Missouri and southwest Nebraska. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/16/2025 Read more