Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. ...Synopsis... Within a broad open wave trough, a swath of increasing southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and extend into the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a front will extend roughly from western Oklahoma northward to Wisconsin, with a surface low tracking eastward to the Great Lakes region. A secondary area of cyclogenesis is expected to develop across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles through the period. Scattered thunderstorms development is expected along the front from the southern Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. ...Central Great Lakes to the Southern Great Plains... An area of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the northern portion of the outlook area. These will pose some lingering risk of severe hail early. Additional thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon and evening along the cold front. This development will be delayed by a pronounced EML and MLCIN along and ahead of the boundary. As a secondary low establishes across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, thunderstorm development will likely occur along the dryline across the Southern Plains. As the cold front sags southwards and upper-level cooling and forcing overspreads the boundary, additional scattered thunderstorm development is expected to continue northward into the Great Lakes region. Shear profiles are largely boundary parallel, which would favor training and clustering of thunderstorms through time. Given broad region of favorable MLCAPE and deep layer shear, storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Early more discrete storm modes across southern Oklahoma/north Texas on the edge of a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates may promote a conditional risk of very large hail early on. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. ...Synopsis... Within a broad open wave trough, a swath of increasing southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and extend into the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a front will extend roughly from western Oklahoma northward to Wisconsin, with a surface low tracking eastward to the Great Lakes region. A secondary area of cyclogenesis is expected to develop across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles through the period. Scattered thunderstorms development is expected along the front from the southern Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. ...Central Great Lakes to the Southern Great Plains... An area of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the northern portion of the outlook area. These will pose some lingering risk of severe hail early. Additional thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon and evening along the cold front. This development will be delayed by a pronounced EML and MLCIN along and ahead of the boundary. As a secondary low establishes across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, thunderstorm development will likely occur along the dryline across the Southern Plains. As the cold front sags southwards and upper-level cooling and forcing overspreads the boundary, additional scattered thunderstorm development is expected to continue northward into the Great Lakes region. Shear profiles are largely boundary parallel, which would favor training and clustering of thunderstorms through time. Given broad region of favorable MLCAPE and deep layer shear, storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Early more discrete storm modes across southern Oklahoma/north Texas on the edge of a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates may promote a conditional risk of very large hail early on. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. ...Synopsis... Within a broad open wave trough, a swath of increasing southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and extend into the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a front will extend roughly from western Oklahoma northward to Wisconsin, with a surface low tracking eastward to the Great Lakes region. A secondary area of cyclogenesis is expected to develop across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles through the period. Scattered thunderstorms development is expected along the front from the southern Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. ...Central Great Lakes to the Southern Great Plains... An area of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the northern portion of the outlook area. These will pose some lingering risk of severe hail early. Additional thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon and evening along the cold front. This development will be delayed by a pronounced EML and MLCIN along and ahead of the boundary. As a secondary low establishes across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, thunderstorm development will likely occur along the dryline across the Southern Plains. As the cold front sags southwards and upper-level cooling and forcing overspreads the boundary, additional scattered thunderstorm development is expected to continue northward into the Great Lakes region. Shear profiles are largely boundary parallel, which would favor training and clustering of thunderstorms through time. Given broad region of favorable MLCAPE and deep layer shear, storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Early more discrete storm modes across southern Oklahoma/north Texas on the edge of a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates may promote a conditional risk of very large hail early on. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. ...Synopsis... Within a broad open wave trough, a swath of increasing southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and extend into the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a front will extend roughly from western Oklahoma northward to Wisconsin, with a surface low tracking eastward to the Great Lakes region. A secondary area of cyclogenesis is expected to develop across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles through the period. Scattered thunderstorms development is expected along the front from the southern Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. ...Central Great Lakes to the Southern Great Plains... An area of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the northern portion of the outlook area. These will pose some lingering risk of severe hail early. Additional thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon and evening along the cold front. This development will be delayed by a pronounced EML and MLCIN along and ahead of the boundary. As a secondary low establishes across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, thunderstorm development will likely occur along the dryline across the Southern Plains. As the cold front sags southwards and upper-level cooling and forcing overspreads the boundary, additional scattered thunderstorm development is expected to continue northward into the Great Lakes region. Shear profiles are largely boundary parallel, which would favor training and clustering of thunderstorms through time. Given broad region of favorable MLCAPE and deep layer shear, storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Early more discrete storm modes across southern Oklahoma/north Texas on the edge of a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates may promote a conditional risk of very large hail early on. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. ...Synopsis... Within a broad open wave trough, a swath of increasing southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and extend into the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a front will extend roughly from western Oklahoma northward to Wisconsin, with a surface low tracking eastward to the Great Lakes region. A secondary area of cyclogenesis is expected to develop across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles through the period. Scattered thunderstorms development is expected along the front from the southern Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. ...Central Great Lakes to the Southern Great Plains... An area of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the northern portion of the outlook area. These will pose some lingering risk of severe hail early. Additional thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon and evening along the cold front. This development will be delayed by a pronounced EML and MLCIN along and ahead of the boundary. As a secondary low establishes across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, thunderstorm development will likely occur along the dryline across the Southern Plains. As the cold front sags southwards and upper-level cooling and forcing overspreads the boundary, additional scattered thunderstorm development is expected to continue northward into the Great Lakes region. Shear profiles are largely boundary parallel, which would favor training and clustering of thunderstorms through time. Given broad region of favorable MLCAPE and deep layer shear, storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Early more discrete storm modes across southern Oklahoma/north Texas on the edge of a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates may promote a conditional risk of very large hail early on. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. ...Synopsis... Within a broad open wave trough, a swath of increasing southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and extend into the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a front will extend roughly from western Oklahoma northward to Wisconsin, with a surface low tracking eastward to the Great Lakes region. A secondary area of cyclogenesis is expected to develop across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles through the period. Scattered thunderstorms development is expected along the front from the southern Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. ...Central Great Lakes to the Southern Great Plains... An area of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the northern portion of the outlook area. These will pose some lingering risk of severe hail early. Additional thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon and evening along the cold front. This development will be delayed by a pronounced EML and MLCIN along and ahead of the boundary. As a secondary low establishes across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, thunderstorm development will likely occur along the dryline across the Southern Plains. As the cold front sags southwards and upper-level cooling and forcing overspreads the boundary, additional scattered thunderstorm development is expected to continue northward into the Great Lakes region. Shear profiles are largely boundary parallel, which would favor training and clustering of thunderstorms through time. Given broad region of favorable MLCAPE and deep layer shear, storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Early more discrete storm modes across southern Oklahoma/north Texas on the edge of a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates may promote a conditional risk of very large hail early on. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. ...Synopsis... Within a broad open wave trough, a swath of increasing southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and extend into the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a front will extend roughly from western Oklahoma northward to Wisconsin, with a surface low tracking eastward to the Great Lakes region. A secondary area of cyclogenesis is expected to develop across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles through the period. Scattered thunderstorms development is expected along the front from the southern Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. ...Central Great Lakes to the Southern Great Plains... An area of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the northern portion of the outlook area. These will pose some lingering risk of severe hail early. Additional thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon and evening along the cold front. This development will be delayed by a pronounced EML and MLCIN along and ahead of the boundary. As a secondary low establishes across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, thunderstorm development will likely occur along the dryline across the Southern Plains. As the cold front sags southwards and upper-level cooling and forcing overspreads the boundary, additional scattered thunderstorm development is expected to continue northward into the Great Lakes region. Shear profiles are largely boundary parallel, which would favor training and clustering of thunderstorms through time. Given broad region of favorable MLCAPE and deep layer shear, storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Early more discrete storm modes across southern Oklahoma/north Texas on the edge of a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates may promote a conditional risk of very large hail early on. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. ...Synopsis... Within a broad open wave trough, a swath of increasing southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and extend into the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a front will extend roughly from western Oklahoma northward to Wisconsin, with a surface low tracking eastward to the Great Lakes region. A secondary area of cyclogenesis is expected to develop across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles through the period. Scattered thunderstorms development is expected along the front from the southern Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. ...Central Great Lakes to the Southern Great Plains... An area of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the northern portion of the outlook area. These will pose some lingering risk of severe hail early. Additional thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon and evening along the cold front. This development will be delayed by a pronounced EML and MLCIN along and ahead of the boundary. As a secondary low establishes across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, thunderstorm development will likely occur along the dryline across the Southern Plains. As the cold front sags southwards and upper-level cooling and forcing overspreads the boundary, additional scattered thunderstorm development is expected to continue northward into the Great Lakes region. Shear profiles are largely boundary parallel, which would favor training and clustering of thunderstorms through time. Given broad region of favorable MLCAPE and deep layer shear, storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Early more discrete storm modes across southern Oklahoma/north Texas on the edge of a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates may promote a conditional risk of very large hail early on. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Synopsis... A broad open wave trough will extend from the western Canada into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin on Thursday, with broad southwesterly flow extending from the Southwest through the central/northern Plains. A surface cyclone is expected to develop across western Kansas, with a diffuse frontal boundary extending southwest to northeast across the Central Plains into the Midwest. The triple point near the low/dryline/front interface is expected to be the focus point for convective development by the afternoon and evening from eastern Nebraska to Iowa and into Minnesota. ...Eastern Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As the low develops across western Kansas late Wednesday into Thursday, southerly return flow will bring moisture northward into the central Plains. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected as differential heating is maximized along a frontal boundary across eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon. This region will be characterized by dew points in the 50s to 60s, with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg by the afternoon amid a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. While MLCIN is expected to increase across portions of Iowa, a corridor of open warm sector is expected to develop across eastern Nebraska where wind profiles will support supercells. These supercells may be initially surface based, capable of large hail (some very large 2"+), damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. Boundary parallel flow will likely lead to some undercutting of storms as well as storm motions that favor training cells, which will likely limit the tornado threat into the evening while potential for large hail and damaging wind continues with eastward extent. A few surface based cells may develop as far north as southwestern Minnesota. Moisture profiles are less favorable this far northward but convergence along the front/surface trough along with favorable wind profiles will support some risk for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Synopsis... A broad open wave trough will extend from the western Canada into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin on Thursday, with broad southwesterly flow extending from the Southwest through the central/northern Plains. A surface cyclone is expected to develop across western Kansas, with a diffuse frontal boundary extending southwest to northeast across the Central Plains into the Midwest. The triple point near the low/dryline/front interface is expected to be the focus point for convective development by the afternoon and evening from eastern Nebraska to Iowa and into Minnesota. ...Eastern Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As the low develops across western Kansas late Wednesday into Thursday, southerly return flow will bring moisture northward into the central Plains. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected as differential heating is maximized along a frontal boundary across eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon. This region will be characterized by dew points in the 50s to 60s, with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg by the afternoon amid a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. While MLCIN is expected to increase across portions of Iowa, a corridor of open warm sector is expected to develop across eastern Nebraska where wind profiles will support supercells. These supercells may be initially surface based, capable of large hail (some very large 2"+), damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. Boundary parallel flow will likely lead to some undercutting of storms as well as storm motions that favor training cells, which will likely limit the tornado threat into the evening while potential for large hail and damaging wind continues with eastward extent. A few surface based cells may develop as far north as southwestern Minnesota. Moisture profiles are less favorable this far northward but convergence along the front/surface trough along with favorable wind profiles will support some risk for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Synopsis... A broad open wave trough will extend from the western Canada into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin on Thursday, with broad southwesterly flow extending from the Southwest through the central/northern Plains. A surface cyclone is expected to develop across western Kansas, with a diffuse frontal boundary extending southwest to northeast across the Central Plains into the Midwest. The triple point near the low/dryline/front interface is expected to be the focus point for convective development by the afternoon and evening from eastern Nebraska to Iowa and into Minnesota. ...Eastern Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As the low develops across western Kansas late Wednesday into Thursday, southerly return flow will bring moisture northward into the central Plains. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected as differential heating is maximized along a frontal boundary across eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon. This region will be characterized by dew points in the 50s to 60s, with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg by the afternoon amid a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. While MLCIN is expected to increase across portions of Iowa, a corridor of open warm sector is expected to develop across eastern Nebraska where wind profiles will support supercells. These supercells may be initially surface based, capable of large hail (some very large 2"+), damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. Boundary parallel flow will likely lead to some undercutting of storms as well as storm motions that favor training cells, which will likely limit the tornado threat into the evening while potential for large hail and damaging wind continues with eastward extent. A few surface based cells may develop as far north as southwestern Minnesota. Moisture profiles are less favorable this far northward but convergence along the front/surface trough along with favorable wind profiles will support some risk for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Synopsis... A broad open wave trough will extend from the western Canada into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin on Thursday, with broad southwesterly flow extending from the Southwest through the central/northern Plains. A surface cyclone is expected to develop across western Kansas, with a diffuse frontal boundary extending southwest to northeast across the Central Plains into the Midwest. The triple point near the low/dryline/front interface is expected to be the focus point for convective development by the afternoon and evening from eastern Nebraska to Iowa and into Minnesota. ...Eastern Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As the low develops across western Kansas late Wednesday into Thursday, southerly return flow will bring moisture northward into the central Plains. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected as differential heating is maximized along a frontal boundary across eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon. This region will be characterized by dew points in the 50s to 60s, with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg by the afternoon amid a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. While MLCIN is expected to increase across portions of Iowa, a corridor of open warm sector is expected to develop across eastern Nebraska where wind profiles will support supercells. These supercells may be initially surface based, capable of large hail (some very large 2"+), damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. Boundary parallel flow will likely lead to some undercutting of storms as well as storm motions that favor training cells, which will likely limit the tornado threat into the evening while potential for large hail and damaging wind continues with eastward extent. A few surface based cells may develop as far north as southwestern Minnesota. Moisture profiles are less favorable this far northward but convergence along the front/surface trough along with favorable wind profiles will support some risk for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Synopsis... A broad open wave trough will extend from the western Canada into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin on Thursday, with broad southwesterly flow extending from the Southwest through the central/northern Plains. A surface cyclone is expected to develop across western Kansas, with a diffuse frontal boundary extending southwest to northeast across the Central Plains into the Midwest. The triple point near the low/dryline/front interface is expected to be the focus point for convective development by the afternoon and evening from eastern Nebraska to Iowa and into Minnesota. ...Eastern Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As the low develops across western Kansas late Wednesday into Thursday, southerly return flow will bring moisture northward into the central Plains. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected as differential heating is maximized along a frontal boundary across eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon. This region will be characterized by dew points in the 50s to 60s, with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg by the afternoon amid a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. While MLCIN is expected to increase across portions of Iowa, a corridor of open warm sector is expected to develop across eastern Nebraska where wind profiles will support supercells. These supercells may be initially surface based, capable of large hail (some very large 2"+), damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. Boundary parallel flow will likely lead to some undercutting of storms as well as storm motions that favor training cells, which will likely limit the tornado threat into the evening while potential for large hail and damaging wind continues with eastward extent. A few surface based cells may develop as far north as southwestern Minnesota. Moisture profiles are less favorable this far northward but convergence along the front/surface trough along with favorable wind profiles will support some risk for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Synopsis... A broad open wave trough will extend from the western Canada into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin on Thursday, with broad southwesterly flow extending from the Southwest through the central/northern Plains. A surface cyclone is expected to develop across western Kansas, with a diffuse frontal boundary extending southwest to northeast across the Central Plains into the Midwest. The triple point near the low/dryline/front interface is expected to be the focus point for convective development by the afternoon and evening from eastern Nebraska to Iowa and into Minnesota. ...Eastern Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As the low develops across western Kansas late Wednesday into Thursday, southerly return flow will bring moisture northward into the central Plains. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected as differential heating is maximized along a frontal boundary across eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon. This region will be characterized by dew points in the 50s to 60s, with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg by the afternoon amid a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. While MLCIN is expected to increase across portions of Iowa, a corridor of open warm sector is expected to develop across eastern Nebraska where wind profiles will support supercells. These supercells may be initially surface based, capable of large hail (some very large 2"+), damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. Boundary parallel flow will likely lead to some undercutting of storms as well as storm motions that favor training cells, which will likely limit the tornado threat into the evening while potential for large hail and damaging wind continues with eastward extent. A few surface based cells may develop as far north as southwestern Minnesota. Moisture profiles are less favorable this far northward but convergence along the front/surface trough along with favorable wind profiles will support some risk for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Synopsis... A broad open wave trough will extend from the western Canada into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin on Thursday, with broad southwesterly flow extending from the Southwest through the central/northern Plains. A surface cyclone is expected to develop across western Kansas, with a diffuse frontal boundary extending southwest to northeast across the Central Plains into the Midwest. The triple point near the low/dryline/front interface is expected to be the focus point for convective development by the afternoon and evening from eastern Nebraska to Iowa and into Minnesota. ...Eastern Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As the low develops across western Kansas late Wednesday into Thursday, southerly return flow will bring moisture northward into the central Plains. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected as differential heating is maximized along a frontal boundary across eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon. This region will be characterized by dew points in the 50s to 60s, with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg by the afternoon amid a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. While MLCIN is expected to increase across portions of Iowa, a corridor of open warm sector is expected to develop across eastern Nebraska where wind profiles will support supercells. These supercells may be initially surface based, capable of large hail (some very large 2"+), damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. Boundary parallel flow will likely lead to some undercutting of storms as well as storm motions that favor training cells, which will likely limit the tornado threat into the evening while potential for large hail and damaging wind continues with eastward extent. A few surface based cells may develop as far north as southwestern Minnesota. Moisture profiles are less favorable this far northward but convergence along the front/surface trough along with favorable wind profiles will support some risk for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Synopsis... A broad open wave trough will extend from the western Canada into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin on Thursday, with broad southwesterly flow extending from the Southwest through the central/northern Plains. A surface cyclone is expected to develop across western Kansas, with a diffuse frontal boundary extending southwest to northeast across the Central Plains into the Midwest. The triple point near the low/dryline/front interface is expected to be the focus point for convective development by the afternoon and evening from eastern Nebraska to Iowa and into Minnesota. ...Eastern Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As the low develops across western Kansas late Wednesday into Thursday, southerly return flow will bring moisture northward into the central Plains. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected as differential heating is maximized along a frontal boundary across eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon. This region will be characterized by dew points in the 50s to 60s, with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg by the afternoon amid a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. While MLCIN is expected to increase across portions of Iowa, a corridor of open warm sector is expected to develop across eastern Nebraska where wind profiles will support supercells. These supercells may be initially surface based, capable of large hail (some very large 2"+), damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. Boundary parallel flow will likely lead to some undercutting of storms as well as storm motions that favor training cells, which will likely limit the tornado threat into the evening while potential for large hail and damaging wind continues with eastward extent. A few surface based cells may develop as far north as southwestern Minnesota. Moisture profiles are less favorable this far northward but convergence along the front/surface trough along with favorable wind profiles will support some risk for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Synopsis... A broad open wave trough will extend from the western Canada into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin on Thursday, with broad southwesterly flow extending from the Southwest through the central/northern Plains. A surface cyclone is expected to develop across western Kansas, with a diffuse frontal boundary extending southwest to northeast across the Central Plains into the Midwest. The triple point near the low/dryline/front interface is expected to be the focus point for convective development by the afternoon and evening from eastern Nebraska to Iowa and into Minnesota. ...Eastern Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As the low develops across western Kansas late Wednesday into Thursday, southerly return flow will bring moisture northward into the central Plains. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected as differential heating is maximized along a frontal boundary across eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon. This region will be characterized by dew points in the 50s to 60s, with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg by the afternoon amid a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. While MLCIN is expected to increase across portions of Iowa, a corridor of open warm sector is expected to develop across eastern Nebraska where wind profiles will support supercells. These supercells may be initially surface based, capable of large hail (some very large 2"+), damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. Boundary parallel flow will likely lead to some undercutting of storms as well as storm motions that favor training cells, which will likely limit the tornado threat into the evening while potential for large hail and damaging wind continues with eastward extent. A few surface based cells may develop as far north as southwestern Minnesota. Moisture profiles are less favorable this far northward but convergence along the front/surface trough along with favorable wind profiles will support some risk for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Latest model guidance and surface observations supported an eastward expansion of Elevated highlights farther into Nebraska. Minimal boundary layer moisture and persistent westerly flow will keep relative humidity rather low (10-20% range) through the day coupled with breezy west winds, supporting Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. Otherwise, forecast remains on track across the Southwest and adjacent southern High Plains with a broad area of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns in place. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will evolve from an upper low off the southern California coast today. This will drive increasing mid-level winds across much of the Southwest. East of the Divide, surface lee troughing will increase through the day. ...Eastern Arizona into New Mexico into southern High Plains... The strongest mid-level winds will not arrive until the evening, but moderate flow will be ongoing during the afternoon. Coupled with the lee trough to the east, 15-25 mph winds are possible across a broad portion of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. The strongest winds are expected in eastern Arizona and New Mexico. RH of 10-15% (locally 5-10%) in these areas will promote a critical fire weather threat. ...Central High Plains... With an extension of the lee trough into western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming, a zone of 15-20 mph downslope winds will develop during the afternoon. RH of 10-20% appears possible. Elevated fire weather is expected this afternoon. ...Mid-Missouri Valley... Southerly/southeasterly winds will reach 15-20 mph during the late morning to mid-afternoon. Model variance in terms of the RH during the afternoon is large. This is likely due to uncertainty in the amount of surface heating with mid/upper-level clouds in the region. Fuels will at least support a locally elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Latest model guidance and surface observations supported an eastward expansion of Elevated highlights farther into Nebraska. Minimal boundary layer moisture and persistent westerly flow will keep relative humidity rather low (10-20% range) through the day coupled with breezy west winds, supporting Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. Otherwise, forecast remains on track across the Southwest and adjacent southern High Plains with a broad area of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns in place. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will evolve from an upper low off the southern California coast today. This will drive increasing mid-level winds across much of the Southwest. East of the Divide, surface lee troughing will increase through the day. ...Eastern Arizona into New Mexico into southern High Plains... The strongest mid-level winds will not arrive until the evening, but moderate flow will be ongoing during the afternoon. Coupled with the lee trough to the east, 15-25 mph winds are possible across a broad portion of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. The strongest winds are expected in eastern Arizona and New Mexico. RH of 10-15% (locally 5-10%) in these areas will promote a critical fire weather threat. ...Central High Plains... With an extension of the lee trough into western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming, a zone of 15-20 mph downslope winds will develop during the afternoon. RH of 10-20% appears possible. Elevated fire weather is expected this afternoon. ...Mid-Missouri Valley... Southerly/southeasterly winds will reach 15-20 mph during the late morning to mid-afternoon. Model variance in terms of the RH during the afternoon is large. This is likely due to uncertainty in the amount of surface heating with mid/upper-level clouds in the region. Fuels will at least support a locally elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Latest model guidance and surface observations supported an eastward expansion of Elevated highlights farther into Nebraska. Minimal boundary layer moisture and persistent westerly flow will keep relative humidity rather low (10-20% range) through the day coupled with breezy west winds, supporting Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. Otherwise, forecast remains on track across the Southwest and adjacent southern High Plains with a broad area of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns in place. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will evolve from an upper low off the southern California coast today. This will drive increasing mid-level winds across much of the Southwest. East of the Divide, surface lee troughing will increase through the day. ...Eastern Arizona into New Mexico into southern High Plains... The strongest mid-level winds will not arrive until the evening, but moderate flow will be ongoing during the afternoon. Coupled with the lee trough to the east, 15-25 mph winds are possible across a broad portion of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. The strongest winds are expected in eastern Arizona and New Mexico. RH of 10-15% (locally 5-10%) in these areas will promote a critical fire weather threat. ...Central High Plains... With an extension of the lee trough into western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming, a zone of 15-20 mph downslope winds will develop during the afternoon. RH of 10-20% appears possible. Elevated fire weather is expected this afternoon. ...Mid-Missouri Valley... Southerly/southeasterly winds will reach 15-20 mph during the late morning to mid-afternoon. Model variance in terms of the RH during the afternoon is large. This is likely due to uncertainty in the amount of surface heating with mid/upper-level clouds in the region. Fuels will at least support a locally elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more