Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Southern Plains to southern MO... An upper shortwave trough over the Southwest will pivot east toward the southern Plains on Saturday/Saturday night. This will maintain strong southwesterly flow aloft from TX into the Midwest. At the surface, a front is expected to be draped from southern IL/MO into northwest TX during the morning, with a dryline extending southward across west-central TX in the vicinity of the Big Bend. Southerly low-level flow will maintain a moist airmass ahead of these surface boundaries, with dewpoints generally in the low/mid 60s F. Some convection could be ongoing during the morning in a warm advection regime prior to the low-level jet weakening modestly during the day. Stronger heating ahead of the surface boundary could allow for weak to moderate destabilization by afternoon, and additional convection is likely along the cold front/dryline as large-scale ascent increases with the approach of the upper shortwave trough. Vertical wind profiles suggest supercell potential, but storm mode may quickly trend toward clusters/linear segments. Some risk for large hail and damaging gusts appears possible with this activity during the late afternoon into the nighttime hours, with initial convection developing over TX/OK and spreading into the Ozarks after 00z. ...Ohio Valley... An upper shortwave trough will migrate east across Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes on Saturday. This will bring a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow across the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes/Northeast vicinity. A cold front and associated baroclinic zone will sag south/southeast across the Ohio Valley vicinity with a narrow corridor of modest boundary layer moisture forecast within this region. Severe potential will largely be modulated by ongoing convection Saturday morning and generally weak instability and lapse rates. Nevertheless, strong flow and sufficient instability may support strong gusts with thunderstorm clusters during the morning and afternoon hours. ..Leitman.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Southern Plains to southern MO... An upper shortwave trough over the Southwest will pivot east toward the southern Plains on Saturday/Saturday night. This will maintain strong southwesterly flow aloft from TX into the Midwest. At the surface, a front is expected to be draped from southern IL/MO into northwest TX during the morning, with a dryline extending southward across west-central TX in the vicinity of the Big Bend. Southerly low-level flow will maintain a moist airmass ahead of these surface boundaries, with dewpoints generally in the low/mid 60s F. Some convection could be ongoing during the morning in a warm advection regime prior to the low-level jet weakening modestly during the day. Stronger heating ahead of the surface boundary could allow for weak to moderate destabilization by afternoon, and additional convection is likely along the cold front/dryline as large-scale ascent increases with the approach of the upper shortwave trough. Vertical wind profiles suggest supercell potential, but storm mode may quickly trend toward clusters/linear segments. Some risk for large hail and damaging gusts appears possible with this activity during the late afternoon into the nighttime hours, with initial convection developing over TX/OK and spreading into the Ozarks after 00z. ...Ohio Valley... An upper shortwave trough will migrate east across Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes on Saturday. This will bring a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow across the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes/Northeast vicinity. A cold front and associated baroclinic zone will sag south/southeast across the Ohio Valley vicinity with a narrow corridor of modest boundary layer moisture forecast within this region. Severe potential will largely be modulated by ongoing convection Saturday morning and generally weak instability and lapse rates. Nevertheless, strong flow and sufficient instability may support strong gusts with thunderstorm clusters during the morning and afternoon hours. ..Leitman.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Southern Plains to southern MO... An upper shortwave trough over the Southwest will pivot east toward the southern Plains on Saturday/Saturday night. This will maintain strong southwesterly flow aloft from TX into the Midwest. At the surface, a front is expected to be draped from southern IL/MO into northwest TX during the morning, with a dryline extending southward across west-central TX in the vicinity of the Big Bend. Southerly low-level flow will maintain a moist airmass ahead of these surface boundaries, with dewpoints generally in the low/mid 60s F. Some convection could be ongoing during the morning in a warm advection regime prior to the low-level jet weakening modestly during the day. Stronger heating ahead of the surface boundary could allow for weak to moderate destabilization by afternoon, and additional convection is likely along the cold front/dryline as large-scale ascent increases with the approach of the upper shortwave trough. Vertical wind profiles suggest supercell potential, but storm mode may quickly trend toward clusters/linear segments. Some risk for large hail and damaging gusts appears possible with this activity during the late afternoon into the nighttime hours, with initial convection developing over TX/OK and spreading into the Ozarks after 00z. ...Ohio Valley... An upper shortwave trough will migrate east across Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes on Saturday. This will bring a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow across the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes/Northeast vicinity. A cold front and associated baroclinic zone will sag south/southeast across the Ohio Valley vicinity with a narrow corridor of modest boundary layer moisture forecast within this region. Severe potential will largely be modulated by ongoing convection Saturday morning and generally weak instability and lapse rates. Nevertheless, strong flow and sufficient instability may support strong gusts with thunderstorm clusters during the morning and afternoon hours. ..Leitman.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Southern Plains to southern MO... An upper shortwave trough over the Southwest will pivot east toward the southern Plains on Saturday/Saturday night. This will maintain strong southwesterly flow aloft from TX into the Midwest. At the surface, a front is expected to be draped from southern IL/MO into northwest TX during the morning, with a dryline extending southward across west-central TX in the vicinity of the Big Bend. Southerly low-level flow will maintain a moist airmass ahead of these surface boundaries, with dewpoints generally in the low/mid 60s F. Some convection could be ongoing during the morning in a warm advection regime prior to the low-level jet weakening modestly during the day. Stronger heating ahead of the surface boundary could allow for weak to moderate destabilization by afternoon, and additional convection is likely along the cold front/dryline as large-scale ascent increases with the approach of the upper shortwave trough. Vertical wind profiles suggest supercell potential, but storm mode may quickly trend toward clusters/linear segments. Some risk for large hail and damaging gusts appears possible with this activity during the late afternoon into the nighttime hours, with initial convection developing over TX/OK and spreading into the Ozarks after 00z. ...Ohio Valley... An upper shortwave trough will migrate east across Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes on Saturday. This will bring a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow across the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes/Northeast vicinity. A cold front and associated baroclinic zone will sag south/southeast across the Ohio Valley vicinity with a narrow corridor of modest boundary layer moisture forecast within this region. Severe potential will largely be modulated by ongoing convection Saturday morning and generally weak instability and lapse rates. Nevertheless, strong flow and sufficient instability may support strong gusts with thunderstorm clusters during the morning and afternoon hours. ..Leitman.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... The upper trough will shift to the east with the stronger mid-level winds within the southern/central Plains on Friday. Another surface low, though weaker than Thursday, will develop along the New Mexico/Texas border. A cold front will push farther south into parts of the southern Plains. Fire weather concerns will remain across parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Though mid-level flow will be weaker than the previous day, moderate flow should remain across the region during the afternoon. Coupled with the modest surface low, surface winds of 15-25 mph will be possible. RH could fall around 10% for some locations, but will more broadly be around 15-20%. Critical fire weather is most likely in parts of southern and eastern New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. There is greater confidence in critically low RH as well as fuels being more receptive here. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... The upper trough will shift to the east with the stronger mid-level winds within the southern/central Plains on Friday. Another surface low, though weaker than Thursday, will develop along the New Mexico/Texas border. A cold front will push farther south into parts of the southern Plains. Fire weather concerns will remain across parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Though mid-level flow will be weaker than the previous day, moderate flow should remain across the region during the afternoon. Coupled with the modest surface low, surface winds of 15-25 mph will be possible. RH could fall around 10% for some locations, but will more broadly be around 15-20%. Critical fire weather is most likely in parts of southern and eastern New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. There is greater confidence in critically low RH as well as fuels being more receptive here. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... The upper trough will shift to the east with the stronger mid-level winds within the southern/central Plains on Friday. Another surface low, though weaker than Thursday, will develop along the New Mexico/Texas border. A cold front will push farther south into parts of the southern Plains. Fire weather concerns will remain across parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Though mid-level flow will be weaker than the previous day, moderate flow should remain across the region during the afternoon. Coupled with the modest surface low, surface winds of 15-25 mph will be possible. RH could fall around 10% for some locations, but will more broadly be around 15-20%. Critical fire weather is most likely in parts of southern and eastern New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. There is greater confidence in critically low RH as well as fuels being more receptive here. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... The upper trough will shift to the east with the stronger mid-level winds within the southern/central Plains on Friday. Another surface low, though weaker than Thursday, will develop along the New Mexico/Texas border. A cold front will push farther south into parts of the southern Plains. Fire weather concerns will remain across parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Though mid-level flow will be weaker than the previous day, moderate flow should remain across the region during the afternoon. Coupled with the modest surface low, surface winds of 15-25 mph will be possible. RH could fall around 10% for some locations, but will more broadly be around 15-20%. Critical fire weather is most likely in parts of southern and eastern New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. There is greater confidence in critically low RH as well as fuels being more receptive here. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... The upper trough will shift to the east with the stronger mid-level winds within the southern/central Plains on Friday. Another surface low, though weaker than Thursday, will develop along the New Mexico/Texas border. A cold front will push farther south into parts of the southern Plains. Fire weather concerns will remain across parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Though mid-level flow will be weaker than the previous day, moderate flow should remain across the region during the afternoon. Coupled with the modest surface low, surface winds of 15-25 mph will be possible. RH could fall around 10% for some locations, but will more broadly be around 15-20%. Critical fire weather is most likely in parts of southern and eastern New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. There is greater confidence in critically low RH as well as fuels being more receptive here. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... The upper trough will shift to the east with the stronger mid-level winds within the southern/central Plains on Friday. Another surface low, though weaker than Thursday, will develop along the New Mexico/Texas border. A cold front will push farther south into parts of the southern Plains. Fire weather concerns will remain across parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Though mid-level flow will be weaker than the previous day, moderate flow should remain across the region during the afternoon. Coupled with the modest surface low, surface winds of 15-25 mph will be possible. RH could fall around 10% for some locations, but will more broadly be around 15-20%. Critical fire weather is most likely in parts of southern and eastern New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. There is greater confidence in critically low RH as well as fuels being more receptive here. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... The upper trough will shift to the east with the stronger mid-level winds within the southern/central Plains on Friday. Another surface low, though weaker than Thursday, will develop along the New Mexico/Texas border. A cold front will push farther south into parts of the southern Plains. Fire weather concerns will remain across parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Though mid-level flow will be weaker than the previous day, moderate flow should remain across the region during the afternoon. Coupled with the modest surface low, surface winds of 15-25 mph will be possible. RH could fall around 10% for some locations, but will more broadly be around 15-20%. Critical fire weather is most likely in parts of southern and eastern New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. There is greater confidence in critically low RH as well as fuels being more receptive here. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level jet will overspread New Mexico during the afternoon today. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas border. A broad region of high-end fire weather will be present across parts of the Southwest and the adjacent southern/central High Plains. ...New Mexico... The most significant fire weather concerns are expected from southwest into northeast New Mexico. Here, the mid-level jet will be quite favorably timed with peak heating. Sustained wind of 30-40 mph and gusts of 55-65 mph appear probable during the afternoon. RH of 5-10% can be expected. With ERCs near or above the 90th percentile (with some around the 97th), significant fire spread can be expected with any ignitions. ...Southern High Plains... While some transitioning/greening fuels complicate the forecast, the still intense meteorological conditions will drive critical fire weather for parts of West Texas. Areas of the eastern Panhandle and South Plains (areas primarily east of the Caprock) will see similarly dry and windy conditions, but less receptive fuels (per TICC and other local fuel information) will keep fire weather elevated. RH of 5-15% with winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The highest wind speeds will be near the New Mexico border into the northwest Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. ...Central High Plains... With the deepening surface low and some portion of the mid-level jet impacting the region, westerly downslope winds in Colorado and southwesterly winds in Kansas will promote elevated to critical fire weather. Strong winds (20-30 mph) are expected for much of the Front Range into southwest Kansas. RH will be similarly low as farther south/west -- values ranging from 5-15%. The fire weather threat will extend as far north as the cold front. A few locations could see elevated to briefly critical conditions prior to winds shifting to the north and RH quickly rising. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level jet will overspread New Mexico during the afternoon today. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas border. A broad region of high-end fire weather will be present across parts of the Southwest and the adjacent southern/central High Plains. ...New Mexico... The most significant fire weather concerns are expected from southwest into northeast New Mexico. Here, the mid-level jet will be quite favorably timed with peak heating. Sustained wind of 30-40 mph and gusts of 55-65 mph appear probable during the afternoon. RH of 5-10% can be expected. With ERCs near or above the 90th percentile (with some around the 97th), significant fire spread can be expected with any ignitions. ...Southern High Plains... While some transitioning/greening fuels complicate the forecast, the still intense meteorological conditions will drive critical fire weather for parts of West Texas. Areas of the eastern Panhandle and South Plains (areas primarily east of the Caprock) will see similarly dry and windy conditions, but less receptive fuels (per TICC and other local fuel information) will keep fire weather elevated. RH of 5-15% with winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The highest wind speeds will be near the New Mexico border into the northwest Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. ...Central High Plains... With the deepening surface low and some portion of the mid-level jet impacting the region, westerly downslope winds in Colorado and southwesterly winds in Kansas will promote elevated to critical fire weather. Strong winds (20-30 mph) are expected for much of the Front Range into southwest Kansas. RH will be similarly low as farther south/west -- values ranging from 5-15%. The fire weather threat will extend as far north as the cold front. A few locations could see elevated to briefly critical conditions prior to winds shifting to the north and RH quickly rising. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level jet will overspread New Mexico during the afternoon today. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas border. A broad region of high-end fire weather will be present across parts of the Southwest and the adjacent southern/central High Plains. ...New Mexico... The most significant fire weather concerns are expected from southwest into northeast New Mexico. Here, the mid-level jet will be quite favorably timed with peak heating. Sustained wind of 30-40 mph and gusts of 55-65 mph appear probable during the afternoon. RH of 5-10% can be expected. With ERCs near or above the 90th percentile (with some around the 97th), significant fire spread can be expected with any ignitions. ...Southern High Plains... While some transitioning/greening fuels complicate the forecast, the still intense meteorological conditions will drive critical fire weather for parts of West Texas. Areas of the eastern Panhandle and South Plains (areas primarily east of the Caprock) will see similarly dry and windy conditions, but less receptive fuels (per TICC and other local fuel information) will keep fire weather elevated. RH of 5-15% with winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The highest wind speeds will be near the New Mexico border into the northwest Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. ...Central High Plains... With the deepening surface low and some portion of the mid-level jet impacting the region, westerly downslope winds in Colorado and southwesterly winds in Kansas will promote elevated to critical fire weather. Strong winds (20-30 mph) are expected for much of the Front Range into southwest Kansas. RH will be similarly low as farther south/west -- values ranging from 5-15%. The fire weather threat will extend as far north as the cold front. A few locations could see elevated to briefly critical conditions prior to winds shifting to the north and RH quickly rising. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level jet will overspread New Mexico during the afternoon today. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas border. A broad region of high-end fire weather will be present across parts of the Southwest and the adjacent southern/central High Plains. ...New Mexico... The most significant fire weather concerns are expected from southwest into northeast New Mexico. Here, the mid-level jet will be quite favorably timed with peak heating. Sustained wind of 30-40 mph and gusts of 55-65 mph appear probable during the afternoon. RH of 5-10% can be expected. With ERCs near or above the 90th percentile (with some around the 97th), significant fire spread can be expected with any ignitions. ...Southern High Plains... While some transitioning/greening fuels complicate the forecast, the still intense meteorological conditions will drive critical fire weather for parts of West Texas. Areas of the eastern Panhandle and South Plains (areas primarily east of the Caprock) will see similarly dry and windy conditions, but less receptive fuels (per TICC and other local fuel information) will keep fire weather elevated. RH of 5-15% with winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The highest wind speeds will be near the New Mexico border into the northwest Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. ...Central High Plains... With the deepening surface low and some portion of the mid-level jet impacting the region, westerly downslope winds in Colorado and southwesterly winds in Kansas will promote elevated to critical fire weather. Strong winds (20-30 mph) are expected for much of the Front Range into southwest Kansas. RH will be similarly low as farther south/west -- values ranging from 5-15%. The fire weather threat will extend as far north as the cold front. A few locations could see elevated to briefly critical conditions prior to winds shifting to the north and RH quickly rising. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level jet will overspread New Mexico during the afternoon today. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas border. A broad region of high-end fire weather will be present across parts of the Southwest and the adjacent southern/central High Plains. ...New Mexico... The most significant fire weather concerns are expected from southwest into northeast New Mexico. Here, the mid-level jet will be quite favorably timed with peak heating. Sustained wind of 30-40 mph and gusts of 55-65 mph appear probable during the afternoon. RH of 5-10% can be expected. With ERCs near or above the 90th percentile (with some around the 97th), significant fire spread can be expected with any ignitions. ...Southern High Plains... While some transitioning/greening fuels complicate the forecast, the still intense meteorological conditions will drive critical fire weather for parts of West Texas. Areas of the eastern Panhandle and South Plains (areas primarily east of the Caprock) will see similarly dry and windy conditions, but less receptive fuels (per TICC and other local fuel information) will keep fire weather elevated. RH of 5-15% with winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The highest wind speeds will be near the New Mexico border into the northwest Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. ...Central High Plains... With the deepening surface low and some portion of the mid-level jet impacting the region, westerly downslope winds in Colorado and southwesterly winds in Kansas will promote elevated to critical fire weather. Strong winds (20-30 mph) are expected for much of the Front Range into southwest Kansas. RH will be similarly low as farther south/west -- values ranging from 5-15%. The fire weather threat will extend as far north as the cold front. A few locations could see elevated to briefly critical conditions prior to winds shifting to the north and RH quickly rising. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level jet will overspread New Mexico during the afternoon today. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas border. A broad region of high-end fire weather will be present across parts of the Southwest and the adjacent southern/central High Plains. ...New Mexico... The most significant fire weather concerns are expected from southwest into northeast New Mexico. Here, the mid-level jet will be quite favorably timed with peak heating. Sustained wind of 30-40 mph and gusts of 55-65 mph appear probable during the afternoon. RH of 5-10% can be expected. With ERCs near or above the 90th percentile (with some around the 97th), significant fire spread can be expected with any ignitions. ...Southern High Plains... While some transitioning/greening fuels complicate the forecast, the still intense meteorological conditions will drive critical fire weather for parts of West Texas. Areas of the eastern Panhandle and South Plains (areas primarily east of the Caprock) will see similarly dry and windy conditions, but less receptive fuels (per TICC and other local fuel information) will keep fire weather elevated. RH of 5-15% with winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The highest wind speeds will be near the New Mexico border into the northwest Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. ...Central High Plains... With the deepening surface low and some portion of the mid-level jet impacting the region, westerly downslope winds in Colorado and southwesterly winds in Kansas will promote elevated to critical fire weather. Strong winds (20-30 mph) are expected for much of the Front Range into southwest Kansas. RH will be similarly low as farther south/west -- values ranging from 5-15%. The fire weather threat will extend as far north as the cold front. A few locations could see elevated to briefly critical conditions prior to winds shifting to the north and RH quickly rising. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level jet will overspread New Mexico during the afternoon today. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas border. A broad region of high-end fire weather will be present across parts of the Southwest and the adjacent southern/central High Plains. ...New Mexico... The most significant fire weather concerns are expected from southwest into northeast New Mexico. Here, the mid-level jet will be quite favorably timed with peak heating. Sustained wind of 30-40 mph and gusts of 55-65 mph appear probable during the afternoon. RH of 5-10% can be expected. With ERCs near or above the 90th percentile (with some around the 97th), significant fire spread can be expected with any ignitions. ...Southern High Plains... While some transitioning/greening fuels complicate the forecast, the still intense meteorological conditions will drive critical fire weather for parts of West Texas. Areas of the eastern Panhandle and South Plains (areas primarily east of the Caprock) will see similarly dry and windy conditions, but less receptive fuels (per TICC and other local fuel information) will keep fire weather elevated. RH of 5-15% with winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The highest wind speeds will be near the New Mexico border into the northwest Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. ...Central High Plains... With the deepening surface low and some portion of the mid-level jet impacting the region, westerly downslope winds in Colorado and southwesterly winds in Kansas will promote elevated to critical fire weather. Strong winds (20-30 mph) are expected for much of the Front Range into southwest Kansas. RH will be similarly low as farther south/west -- values ranging from 5-15%. The fire weather threat will extend as far north as the cold front. A few locations could see elevated to briefly critical conditions prior to winds shifting to the north and RH quickly rising. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the parts of the Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards with this activity. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt large-scale upper trough will pivot south and east across portions of the north-central to western U.S. on Friday. A swath of 60-80 kt 500 mb flow will stretch from the southern Rockies to the Great Lakes ahead of the upper trough. At the surface, low pressure will develop northeast from the KS/MO/IA vicinity Friday morning, to southern Ontario/Quebec by early Saturday. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast across portions of the Mid-MS Valley/Great Lakes and southern Plains. A weak secondary surface low likely will develop across west TX, where a dryline will extend southward from the eastern Panhandle to the Big Bend region. Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary-layer moisture northward ahead of these surface features and beneath fast mid/upper southwesterly flow. This will support scattered severe storms late Friday afternoon into the overnight hours from portions of the southern Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Lower-MO/Mid-MS Valley to Great Lakes... Elevated thunderstorms north of a warm front will likely be ongoing during the morning into the afternoon across WI/northern MI. This activity may pose a risk for marginally severe hail. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough embedded within the northern branch of the larger-scale western U.S. upper trough will shift east across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest during the evening/overnight. This will facilitate the eastward progression of the surface front through the period, creating a focus for thunderstorm development. However, strong capping will limit development along the front, likely until closer to 00z, when stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the surface boundary and cooling aloft ensues. Thunderstorms will likely remain elevated atop the strong EML in the 850-700 mb layer, and will likely become undercut by the surface cold front given boundary-parallel flow through the cloud-bearing layer. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient MUCAPE will support organized convection capable of producing large hail. With time, cells may become training clusters, posing some isolated risk for damaging gusts. ...Southern Plains Vicinity... As a surface low develops across west TX, a triple point will emerge near the eastern TX Panhandle/South Plains vicinity. A stout EML will preclude convective development for much of the day. Near the triple point and northeast along the advancing cold front, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form in the 22-00z time frame. Supercell wind profiles with large MUCAPE, very steep lapse rates, and elongated hodographs suggests initial supercells will pose a risk for large to very large hail through early evening. Thereafter, boundary-parallel flow will result in clustering/training as convection also becomes undercut by the front. Damaging gusts also may occur with initial supercells given a well-mixed boundary layer/steep low-level lapse rates beneath the EML. Additionally, some strong gust potential could occur into the Ozarks vicinity as clustering ensues, but hail is expected to be the main concern. ..Leitman.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the parts of the Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards with this activity. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt large-scale upper trough will pivot south and east across portions of the north-central to western U.S. on Friday. A swath of 60-80 kt 500 mb flow will stretch from the southern Rockies to the Great Lakes ahead of the upper trough. At the surface, low pressure will develop northeast from the KS/MO/IA vicinity Friday morning, to southern Ontario/Quebec by early Saturday. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast across portions of the Mid-MS Valley/Great Lakes and southern Plains. A weak secondary surface low likely will develop across west TX, where a dryline will extend southward from the eastern Panhandle to the Big Bend region. Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary-layer moisture northward ahead of these surface features and beneath fast mid/upper southwesterly flow. This will support scattered severe storms late Friday afternoon into the overnight hours from portions of the southern Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Lower-MO/Mid-MS Valley to Great Lakes... Elevated thunderstorms north of a warm front will likely be ongoing during the morning into the afternoon across WI/northern MI. This activity may pose a risk for marginally severe hail. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough embedded within the northern branch of the larger-scale western U.S. upper trough will shift east across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest during the evening/overnight. This will facilitate the eastward progression of the surface front through the period, creating a focus for thunderstorm development. However, strong capping will limit development along the front, likely until closer to 00z, when stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the surface boundary and cooling aloft ensues. Thunderstorms will likely remain elevated atop the strong EML in the 850-700 mb layer, and will likely become undercut by the surface cold front given boundary-parallel flow through the cloud-bearing layer. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient MUCAPE will support organized convection capable of producing large hail. With time, cells may become training clusters, posing some isolated risk for damaging gusts. ...Southern Plains Vicinity... As a surface low develops across west TX, a triple point will emerge near the eastern TX Panhandle/South Plains vicinity. A stout EML will preclude convective development for much of the day. Near the triple point and northeast along the advancing cold front, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form in the 22-00z time frame. Supercell wind profiles with large MUCAPE, very steep lapse rates, and elongated hodographs suggests initial supercells will pose a risk for large to very large hail through early evening. Thereafter, boundary-parallel flow will result in clustering/training as convection also becomes undercut by the front. Damaging gusts also may occur with initial supercells given a well-mixed boundary layer/steep low-level lapse rates beneath the EML. Additionally, some strong gust potential could occur into the Ozarks vicinity as clustering ensues, but hail is expected to be the main concern. ..Leitman.. 04/17/2025 Read more