Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Latest model guidance consensus and surface observations suggest corridor of Extreme fire weather conditions should extend from southwestern and central New Mexico into far western portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this afternoon. In addition, Critical highlights were extended slightly eastward into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. An accelerating mid-level jet over the Southwest and deepening lee surface trough will support southwest winds of 30-40 mph across southwestern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will reinforce widespread relative humidity of 10 percent or less across much of New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. This weather environment will allow for Critical to Extreme fire weather conditions supportive of rapid fire spread in dry fuels. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level jet will overspread New Mexico during the afternoon today. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas border. A broad region of high-end fire weather will be present across parts of the Southwest and the adjacent southern/central High Plains. ...New Mexico... The most significant fire weather concerns are expected from southwest into northeast New Mexico. Here, the mid-level jet will be quite favorably timed with peak heating. Sustained wind of 30-40 mph and gusts of 55-65 mph appear probable during the afternoon. RH of 5-10% can be expected. With ERCs near or above the 90th percentile (with some around the 97th), significant fire spread can be expected with any ignitions. ...Southern High Plains... While some transitioning/greening fuels complicate the forecast, the still intense meteorological conditions will drive critical fire weather for parts of West Texas. Areas of the eastern Panhandle and South Plains (areas primarily east of the Caprock) will see similarly dry and windy conditions, but less receptive fuels (per TICC and other local fuel information) will keep fire weather elevated. RH of 5-15% with winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The highest wind speeds will be near the New Mexico border into the northwest Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. ...Central High Plains... With the deepening surface low and some portion of the mid-level jet impacting the region, westerly downslope winds in Colorado and southwesterly winds in Kansas will promote elevated to critical fire weather. Strong winds (20-30 mph) are expected for much of the Front Range into southwest Kansas. RH will be similarly low as farther south/west -- values ranging from 5-15%. The fire weather threat will extend as far north as the cold front. A few locations could see elevated to briefly critical conditions prior to winds shifting to the north and RH quickly rising. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Latest model guidance consensus and surface observations suggest corridor of Extreme fire weather conditions should extend from southwestern and central New Mexico into far western portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this afternoon. In addition, Critical highlights were extended slightly eastward into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. An accelerating mid-level jet over the Southwest and deepening lee surface trough will support southwest winds of 30-40 mph across southwestern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will reinforce widespread relative humidity of 10 percent or less across much of New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. This weather environment will allow for Critical to Extreme fire weather conditions supportive of rapid fire spread in dry fuels. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level jet will overspread New Mexico during the afternoon today. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas border. A broad region of high-end fire weather will be present across parts of the Southwest and the adjacent southern/central High Plains. ...New Mexico... The most significant fire weather concerns are expected from southwest into northeast New Mexico. Here, the mid-level jet will be quite favorably timed with peak heating. Sustained wind of 30-40 mph and gusts of 55-65 mph appear probable during the afternoon. RH of 5-10% can be expected. With ERCs near or above the 90th percentile (with some around the 97th), significant fire spread can be expected with any ignitions. ...Southern High Plains... While some transitioning/greening fuels complicate the forecast, the still intense meteorological conditions will drive critical fire weather for parts of West Texas. Areas of the eastern Panhandle and South Plains (areas primarily east of the Caprock) will see similarly dry and windy conditions, but less receptive fuels (per TICC and other local fuel information) will keep fire weather elevated. RH of 5-15% with winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The highest wind speeds will be near the New Mexico border into the northwest Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. ...Central High Plains... With the deepening surface low and some portion of the mid-level jet impacting the region, westerly downslope winds in Colorado and southwesterly winds in Kansas will promote elevated to critical fire weather. Strong winds (20-30 mph) are expected for much of the Front Range into southwest Kansas. RH will be similarly low as farther south/west -- values ranging from 5-15%. The fire weather threat will extend as far north as the cold front. A few locations could see elevated to briefly critical conditions prior to winds shifting to the north and RH quickly rising. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Latest model guidance consensus and surface observations suggest corridor of Extreme fire weather conditions should extend from southwestern and central New Mexico into far western portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this afternoon. In addition, Critical highlights were extended slightly eastward into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. An accelerating mid-level jet over the Southwest and deepening lee surface trough will support southwest winds of 30-40 mph across southwestern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will reinforce widespread relative humidity of 10 percent or less across much of New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. This weather environment will allow for Critical to Extreme fire weather conditions supportive of rapid fire spread in dry fuels. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level jet will overspread New Mexico during the afternoon today. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas border. A broad region of high-end fire weather will be present across parts of the Southwest and the adjacent southern/central High Plains. ...New Mexico... The most significant fire weather concerns are expected from southwest into northeast New Mexico. Here, the mid-level jet will be quite favorably timed with peak heating. Sustained wind of 30-40 mph and gusts of 55-65 mph appear probable during the afternoon. RH of 5-10% can be expected. With ERCs near or above the 90th percentile (with some around the 97th), significant fire spread can be expected with any ignitions. ...Southern High Plains... While some transitioning/greening fuels complicate the forecast, the still intense meteorological conditions will drive critical fire weather for parts of West Texas. Areas of the eastern Panhandle and South Plains (areas primarily east of the Caprock) will see similarly dry and windy conditions, but less receptive fuels (per TICC and other local fuel information) will keep fire weather elevated. RH of 5-15% with winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The highest wind speeds will be near the New Mexico border into the northwest Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. ...Central High Plains... With the deepening surface low and some portion of the mid-level jet impacting the region, westerly downslope winds in Colorado and southwesterly winds in Kansas will promote elevated to critical fire weather. Strong winds (20-30 mph) are expected for much of the Front Range into southwest Kansas. RH will be similarly low as farther south/west -- values ranging from 5-15%. The fire weather threat will extend as far north as the cold front. A few locations could see elevated to briefly critical conditions prior to winds shifting to the north and RH quickly rising. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Latest model guidance consensus and surface observations suggest corridor of Extreme fire weather conditions should extend from southwestern and central New Mexico into far western portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this afternoon. In addition, Critical highlights were extended slightly eastward into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. An accelerating mid-level jet over the Southwest and deepening lee surface trough will support southwest winds of 30-40 mph across southwestern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will reinforce widespread relative humidity of 10 percent or less across much of New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. This weather environment will allow for Critical to Extreme fire weather conditions supportive of rapid fire spread in dry fuels. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level jet will overspread New Mexico during the afternoon today. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas border. A broad region of high-end fire weather will be present across parts of the Southwest and the adjacent southern/central High Plains. ...New Mexico... The most significant fire weather concerns are expected from southwest into northeast New Mexico. Here, the mid-level jet will be quite favorably timed with peak heating. Sustained wind of 30-40 mph and gusts of 55-65 mph appear probable during the afternoon. RH of 5-10% can be expected. With ERCs near or above the 90th percentile (with some around the 97th), significant fire spread can be expected with any ignitions. ...Southern High Plains... While some transitioning/greening fuels complicate the forecast, the still intense meteorological conditions will drive critical fire weather for parts of West Texas. Areas of the eastern Panhandle and South Plains (areas primarily east of the Caprock) will see similarly dry and windy conditions, but less receptive fuels (per TICC and other local fuel information) will keep fire weather elevated. RH of 5-15% with winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The highest wind speeds will be near the New Mexico border into the northwest Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. ...Central High Plains... With the deepening surface low and some portion of the mid-level jet impacting the region, westerly downslope winds in Colorado and southwesterly winds in Kansas will promote elevated to critical fire weather. Strong winds (20-30 mph) are expected for much of the Front Range into southwest Kansas. RH will be similarly low as farther south/west -- values ranging from 5-15%. The fire weather threat will extend as far north as the cold front. A few locations could see elevated to briefly critical conditions prior to winds shifting to the north and RH quickly rising. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Latest model guidance consensus and surface observations suggest corridor of Extreme fire weather conditions should extend from southwestern and central New Mexico into far western portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this afternoon. In addition, Critical highlights were extended slightly eastward into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. An accelerating mid-level jet over the Southwest and deepening lee surface trough will support southwest winds of 30-40 mph across southwestern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will reinforce widespread relative humidity of 10 percent or less across much of New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. This weather environment will allow for Critical to Extreme fire weather conditions supportive of rapid fire spread in dry fuels. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level jet will overspread New Mexico during the afternoon today. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas border. A broad region of high-end fire weather will be present across parts of the Southwest and the adjacent southern/central High Plains. ...New Mexico... The most significant fire weather concerns are expected from southwest into northeast New Mexico. Here, the mid-level jet will be quite favorably timed with peak heating. Sustained wind of 30-40 mph and gusts of 55-65 mph appear probable during the afternoon. RH of 5-10% can be expected. With ERCs near or above the 90th percentile (with some around the 97th), significant fire spread can be expected with any ignitions. ...Southern High Plains... While some transitioning/greening fuels complicate the forecast, the still intense meteorological conditions will drive critical fire weather for parts of West Texas. Areas of the eastern Panhandle and South Plains (areas primarily east of the Caprock) will see similarly dry and windy conditions, but less receptive fuels (per TICC and other local fuel information) will keep fire weather elevated. RH of 5-15% with winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The highest wind speeds will be near the New Mexico border into the northwest Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. ...Central High Plains... With the deepening surface low and some portion of the mid-level jet impacting the region, westerly downslope winds in Colorado and southwesterly winds in Kansas will promote elevated to critical fire weather. Strong winds (20-30 mph) are expected for much of the Front Range into southwest Kansas. RH will be similarly low as farther south/west -- values ranging from 5-15%. The fire weather threat will extend as far north as the cold front. A few locations could see elevated to briefly critical conditions prior to winds shifting to the north and RH quickly rising. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Latest model guidance consensus and surface observations suggest corridor of Extreme fire weather conditions should extend from southwestern and central New Mexico into far western portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this afternoon. In addition, Critical highlights were extended slightly eastward into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. An accelerating mid-level jet over the Southwest and deepening lee surface trough will support southwest winds of 30-40 mph across southwestern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will reinforce widespread relative humidity of 10 percent or less across much of New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. This weather environment will allow for Critical to Extreme fire weather conditions supportive of rapid fire spread in dry fuels. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level jet will overspread New Mexico during the afternoon today. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas border. A broad region of high-end fire weather will be present across parts of the Southwest and the adjacent southern/central High Plains. ...New Mexico... The most significant fire weather concerns are expected from southwest into northeast New Mexico. Here, the mid-level jet will be quite favorably timed with peak heating. Sustained wind of 30-40 mph and gusts of 55-65 mph appear probable during the afternoon. RH of 5-10% can be expected. With ERCs near or above the 90th percentile (with some around the 97th), significant fire spread can be expected with any ignitions. ...Southern High Plains... While some transitioning/greening fuels complicate the forecast, the still intense meteorological conditions will drive critical fire weather for parts of West Texas. Areas of the eastern Panhandle and South Plains (areas primarily east of the Caprock) will see similarly dry and windy conditions, but less receptive fuels (per TICC and other local fuel information) will keep fire weather elevated. RH of 5-15% with winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The highest wind speeds will be near the New Mexico border into the northwest Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. ...Central High Plains... With the deepening surface low and some portion of the mid-level jet impacting the region, westerly downslope winds in Colorado and southwesterly winds in Kansas will promote elevated to critical fire weather. Strong winds (20-30 mph) are expected for much of the Front Range into southwest Kansas. RH will be similarly low as farther south/west -- values ranging from 5-15%. The fire weather threat will extend as far north as the cold front. A few locations could see elevated to briefly critical conditions prior to winds shifting to the north and RH quickly rising. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Latest model guidance consensus and surface observations suggest corridor of Extreme fire weather conditions should extend from southwestern and central New Mexico into far western portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this afternoon. In addition, Critical highlights were extended slightly eastward into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. An accelerating mid-level jet over the Southwest and deepening lee surface trough will support southwest winds of 30-40 mph across southwestern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will reinforce widespread relative humidity of 10 percent or less across much of New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. This weather environment will allow for Critical to Extreme fire weather conditions supportive of rapid fire spread in dry fuels. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level jet will overspread New Mexico during the afternoon today. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas border. A broad region of high-end fire weather will be present across parts of the Southwest and the adjacent southern/central High Plains. ...New Mexico... The most significant fire weather concerns are expected from southwest into northeast New Mexico. Here, the mid-level jet will be quite favorably timed with peak heating. Sustained wind of 30-40 mph and gusts of 55-65 mph appear probable during the afternoon. RH of 5-10% can be expected. With ERCs near or above the 90th percentile (with some around the 97th), significant fire spread can be expected with any ignitions. ...Southern High Plains... While some transitioning/greening fuels complicate the forecast, the still intense meteorological conditions will drive critical fire weather for parts of West Texas. Areas of the eastern Panhandle and South Plains (areas primarily east of the Caprock) will see similarly dry and windy conditions, but less receptive fuels (per TICC and other local fuel information) will keep fire weather elevated. RH of 5-15% with winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The highest wind speeds will be near the New Mexico border into the northwest Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. ...Central High Plains... With the deepening surface low and some portion of the mid-level jet impacting the region, westerly downslope winds in Colorado and southwesterly winds in Kansas will promote elevated to critical fire weather. Strong winds (20-30 mph) are expected for much of the Front Range into southwest Kansas. RH will be similarly low as farther south/west -- values ranging from 5-15%. The fire weather threat will extend as far north as the cold front. A few locations could see elevated to briefly critical conditions prior to winds shifting to the north and RH quickly rising. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-upper flow will extend from the southern High Plains to the central Great Plains and upper MS Valley, downstream of a large-scale trough over the West. Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a capped stratocumulus shield from eastern OK northward into eastern KS and the MO Valley. This low-level moisture depicted on satellite corresponds with a 10.0-11.5 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Moisture will continue northward on southerly flow to the east of a weak surface wave which is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops south-southeastward across the central High Plains. Strong heating and continued moisture advection will result in moderate to strong destabilization from eastern KS to eastern NE/western IA and southern MN. Models continue to show initial thunderstorm development around 20z in southern MN and around 22z in eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple point). Model forecast soundings over southern MN will favor a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail (generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts (50-60 mph), and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south, greater buoyancy and elongated hodographs will be more favorable for supercells. A long-track supercell or two is forecast from eastern NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight. Large to giant hail (peak diameter 2.75 to 3.5 inches) will be possible with the more intense phase of the supercell activity. A narrow window of opportunity may exist for a couple of tornadoes this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F) as low-level shear increases. Severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before this activity wanes late this evening into the overnight. ..Smith/Jirak.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-upper flow will extend from the southern High Plains to the central Great Plains and upper MS Valley, downstream of a large-scale trough over the West. Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a capped stratocumulus shield from eastern OK northward into eastern KS and the MO Valley. This low-level moisture depicted on satellite corresponds with a 10.0-11.5 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Moisture will continue northward on southerly flow to the east of a weak surface wave which is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops south-southeastward across the central High Plains. Strong heating and continued moisture advection will result in moderate to strong destabilization from eastern KS to eastern NE/western IA and southern MN. Models continue to show initial thunderstorm development around 20z in southern MN and around 22z in eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple point). Model forecast soundings over southern MN will favor a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail (generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts (50-60 mph), and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south, greater buoyancy and elongated hodographs will be more favorable for supercells. A long-track supercell or two is forecast from eastern NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight. Large to giant hail (peak diameter 2.75 to 3.5 inches) will be possible with the more intense phase of the supercell activity. A narrow window of opportunity may exist for a couple of tornadoes this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F) as low-level shear increases. Severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before this activity wanes late this evening into the overnight. ..Smith/Jirak.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-upper flow will extend from the southern High Plains to the central Great Plains and upper MS Valley, downstream of a large-scale trough over the West. Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a capped stratocumulus shield from eastern OK northward into eastern KS and the MO Valley. This low-level moisture depicted on satellite corresponds with a 10.0-11.5 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Moisture will continue northward on southerly flow to the east of a weak surface wave which is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops south-southeastward across the central High Plains. Strong heating and continued moisture advection will result in moderate to strong destabilization from eastern KS to eastern NE/western IA and southern MN. Models continue to show initial thunderstorm development around 20z in southern MN and around 22z in eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple point). Model forecast soundings over southern MN will favor a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail (generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts (50-60 mph), and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south, greater buoyancy and elongated hodographs will be more favorable for supercells. A long-track supercell or two is forecast from eastern NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight. Large to giant hail (peak diameter 2.75 to 3.5 inches) will be possible with the more intense phase of the supercell activity. A narrow window of opportunity may exist for a couple of tornadoes this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F) as low-level shear increases. Severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before this activity wanes late this evening into the overnight. ..Smith/Jirak.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-upper flow will extend from the southern High Plains to the central Great Plains and upper MS Valley, downstream of a large-scale trough over the West. Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a capped stratocumulus shield from eastern OK northward into eastern KS and the MO Valley. This low-level moisture depicted on satellite corresponds with a 10.0-11.5 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Moisture will continue northward on southerly flow to the east of a weak surface wave which is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops south-southeastward across the central High Plains. Strong heating and continued moisture advection will result in moderate to strong destabilization from eastern KS to eastern NE/western IA and southern MN. Models continue to show initial thunderstorm development around 20z in southern MN and around 22z in eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple point). Model forecast soundings over southern MN will favor a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail (generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts (50-60 mph), and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south, greater buoyancy and elongated hodographs will be more favorable for supercells. A long-track supercell or two is forecast from eastern NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight. Large to giant hail (peak diameter 2.75 to 3.5 inches) will be possible with the more intense phase of the supercell activity. A narrow window of opportunity may exist for a couple of tornadoes this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F) as low-level shear increases. Severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before this activity wanes late this evening into the overnight. ..Smith/Jirak.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-upper flow will extend from the southern High Plains to the central Great Plains and upper MS Valley, downstream of a large-scale trough over the West. Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a capped stratocumulus shield from eastern OK northward into eastern KS and the MO Valley. This low-level moisture depicted on satellite corresponds with a 10.0-11.5 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Moisture will continue northward on southerly flow to the east of a weak surface wave which is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops south-southeastward across the central High Plains. Strong heating and continued moisture advection will result in moderate to strong destabilization from eastern KS to eastern NE/western IA and southern MN. Models continue to show initial thunderstorm development around 20z in southern MN and around 22z in eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple point). Model forecast soundings over southern MN will favor a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail (generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts (50-60 mph), and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south, greater buoyancy and elongated hodographs will be more favorable for supercells. A long-track supercell or two is forecast from eastern NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight. Large to giant hail (peak diameter 2.75 to 3.5 inches) will be possible with the more intense phase of the supercell activity. A narrow window of opportunity may exist for a couple of tornadoes this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F) as low-level shear increases. Severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before this activity wanes late this evening into the overnight. ..Smith/Jirak.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-upper flow will extend from the southern High Plains to the central Great Plains and upper MS Valley, downstream of a large-scale trough over the West. Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a capped stratocumulus shield from eastern OK northward into eastern KS and the MO Valley. This low-level moisture depicted on satellite corresponds with a 10.0-11.5 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Moisture will continue northward on southerly flow to the east of a weak surface wave which is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops south-southeastward across the central High Plains. Strong heating and continued moisture advection will result in moderate to strong destabilization from eastern KS to eastern NE/western IA and southern MN. Models continue to show initial thunderstorm development around 20z in southern MN and around 22z in eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple point). Model forecast soundings over southern MN will favor a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail (generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts (50-60 mph), and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south, greater buoyancy and elongated hodographs will be more favorable for supercells. A long-track supercell or two is forecast from eastern NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight. Large to giant hail (peak diameter 2.75 to 3.5 inches) will be possible with the more intense phase of the supercell activity. A narrow window of opportunity may exist for a couple of tornadoes this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F) as low-level shear increases. Severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before this activity wanes late this evening into the overnight. ..Smith/Jirak.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-upper flow will extend from the southern High Plains to the central Great Plains and upper MS Valley, downstream of a large-scale trough over the West. Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a capped stratocumulus shield from eastern OK northward into eastern KS and the MO Valley. This low-level moisture depicted on satellite corresponds with a 10.0-11.5 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Moisture will continue northward on southerly flow to the east of a weak surface wave which is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops south-southeastward across the central High Plains. Strong heating and continued moisture advection will result in moderate to strong destabilization from eastern KS to eastern NE/western IA and southern MN. Models continue to show initial thunderstorm development around 20z in southern MN and around 22z in eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple point). Model forecast soundings over southern MN will favor a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail (generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts (50-60 mph), and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south, greater buoyancy and elongated hodographs will be more favorable for supercells. A long-track supercell or two is forecast from eastern NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight. Large to giant hail (peak diameter 2.75 to 3.5 inches) will be possible with the more intense phase of the supercell activity. A narrow window of opportunity may exist for a couple of tornadoes this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F) as low-level shear increases. Severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before this activity wanes late this evening into the overnight. ..Smith/Jirak.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-upper flow will extend from the southern High Plains to the central Great Plains and upper MS Valley, downstream of a large-scale trough over the West. Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a capped stratocumulus shield from eastern OK northward into eastern KS and the MO Valley. This low-level moisture depicted on satellite corresponds with a 10.0-11.5 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Moisture will continue northward on southerly flow to the east of a weak surface wave which is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops south-southeastward across the central High Plains. Strong heating and continued moisture advection will result in moderate to strong destabilization from eastern KS to eastern NE/western IA and southern MN. Models continue to show initial thunderstorm development around 20z in southern MN and around 22z in eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple point). Model forecast soundings over southern MN will favor a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail (generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts (50-60 mph), and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south, greater buoyancy and elongated hodographs will be more favorable for supercells. A long-track supercell or two is forecast from eastern NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight. Large to giant hail (peak diameter 2.75 to 3.5 inches) will be possible with the more intense phase of the supercell activity. A narrow window of opportunity may exist for a couple of tornadoes this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F) as low-level shear increases. Severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before this activity wanes late this evening into the overnight. ..Smith/Jirak.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-upper flow will extend from the southern High Plains to the central Great Plains and upper MS Valley, downstream of a large-scale trough over the West. Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a capped stratocumulus shield from eastern OK northward into eastern KS and the MO Valley. This low-level moisture depicted on satellite corresponds with a 10.0-11.5 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Moisture will continue northward on southerly flow to the east of a weak surface wave which is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops south-southeastward across the central High Plains. Strong heating and continued moisture advection will result in moderate to strong destabilization from eastern KS to eastern NE/western IA and southern MN. Models continue to show initial thunderstorm development around 20z in southern MN and around 22z in eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple point). Model forecast soundings over southern MN will favor a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail (generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts (50-60 mph), and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south, greater buoyancy and elongated hodographs will be more favorable for supercells. A long-track supercell or two is forecast from eastern NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight. Large to giant hail (peak diameter 2.75 to 3.5 inches) will be possible with the more intense phase of the supercell activity. A narrow window of opportunity may exist for a couple of tornadoes this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F) as low-level shear increases. Severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before this activity wanes late this evening into the overnight. ..Smith/Jirak.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-upper flow will extend from the southern High Plains to the central Great Plains and upper MS Valley, downstream of a large-scale trough over the West. Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a capped stratocumulus shield from eastern OK northward into eastern KS and the MO Valley. This low-level moisture depicted on satellite corresponds with a 10.0-11.5 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Moisture will continue northward on southerly flow to the east of a weak surface wave which is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops south-southeastward across the central High Plains. Strong heating and continued moisture advection will result in moderate to strong destabilization from eastern KS to eastern NE/western IA and southern MN. Models continue to show initial thunderstorm development around 20z in southern MN and around 22z in eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple point). Model forecast soundings over southern MN will favor a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail (generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts (50-60 mph), and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south, greater buoyancy and elongated hodographs will be more favorable for supercells. A long-track supercell or two is forecast from eastern NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight. Large to giant hail (peak diameter 2.75 to 3.5 inches) will be possible with the more intense phase of the supercell activity. A narrow window of opportunity may exist for a couple of tornadoes this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F) as low-level shear increases. Severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before this activity wanes late this evening into the overnight. ..Smith/Jirak.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-upper flow will extend from the southern High Plains to the central Great Plains and upper MS Valley, downstream of a large-scale trough over the West. Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a capped stratocumulus shield from eastern OK northward into eastern KS and the MO Valley. This low-level moisture depicted on satellite corresponds with a 10.0-11.5 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Moisture will continue northward on southerly flow to the east of a weak surface wave which is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops south-southeastward across the central High Plains. Strong heating and continued moisture advection will result in moderate to strong destabilization from eastern KS to eastern NE/western IA and southern MN. Models continue to show initial thunderstorm development around 20z in southern MN and around 22z in eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple point). Model forecast soundings over southern MN will favor a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail (generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts (50-60 mph), and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south, greater buoyancy and elongated hodographs will be more favorable for supercells. A long-track supercell or two is forecast from eastern NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight. Large to giant hail (peak diameter 2.75 to 3.5 inches) will be possible with the more intense phase of the supercell activity. A narrow window of opportunity may exist for a couple of tornadoes this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F) as low-level shear increases. Severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before this activity wanes late this evening into the overnight. ..Smith/Jirak.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight... Southwest mid-upper flow will persist through the period from the southern High Plains to the central Plains and upper MS Valley, downstream from a large-scale, positive-tilt trough from MB to the Great Basin. A weak surface wave is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops south-southeastward across the central High Plains. A modifying Gulf air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s) will continue to spread northward in the warm sector from the southern Plains to eastern KS, IA and southern MN, beneath the eastern extent of a relatively warm EML. A cluster of elevated storms, with embedded supercell structures, is ongoing over southwest MO. These storms are expected to weaken this morning as the low-level jet and associated warm advection diminish, coincident with the eastward expansion of the EML. In the interim, isolated large hail (around 1 inch diameter) and strong gusts (50-60 mph) will be possible for a couple of hours this morning across southwest MO. In the wake of the morning convection, surface heating and continued moisture advection will result in steady destabilization from eastern KS to eastern NE/western IA and southern MN. Thunderstorm development is expected near 20z into southern MN where the cap will be a little weaker, and after about 22z in eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple point). The storm environment into southern MN will favor a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail (generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts (50-60 mph). The environment farther south will favor a long-track supercell or two from eastern NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight, potentially affecting Omaha and Des Moines. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and long hodographs through a deep layer will favor swaths of very large hail (up to 3 inch diameter or greater) and occasional severe gusts of 60-70 mph. There will be a narrow window of opportunity for a couple of tornadoes this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F) as low-level shear increases. ..Thompson/Grams.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight... Southwest mid-upper flow will persist through the period from the southern High Plains to the central Plains and upper MS Valley, downstream from a large-scale, positive-tilt trough from MB to the Great Basin. A weak surface wave is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops south-southeastward across the central High Plains. A modifying Gulf air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s) will continue to spread northward in the warm sector from the southern Plains to eastern KS, IA and southern MN, beneath the eastern extent of a relatively warm EML. A cluster of elevated storms, with embedded supercell structures, is ongoing over southwest MO. These storms are expected to weaken this morning as the low-level jet and associated warm advection diminish, coincident with the eastward expansion of the EML. In the interim, isolated large hail (around 1 inch diameter) and strong gusts (50-60 mph) will be possible for a couple of hours this morning across southwest MO. In the wake of the morning convection, surface heating and continued moisture advection will result in steady destabilization from eastern KS to eastern NE/western IA and southern MN. Thunderstorm development is expected near 20z into southern MN where the cap will be a little weaker, and after about 22z in eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple point). The storm environment into southern MN will favor a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail (generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts (50-60 mph). The environment farther south will favor a long-track supercell or two from eastern NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight, potentially affecting Omaha and Des Moines. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and long hodographs through a deep layer will favor swaths of very large hail (up to 3 inch diameter or greater) and occasional severe gusts of 60-70 mph. There will be a narrow window of opportunity for a couple of tornadoes this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F) as low-level shear increases. ..Thompson/Grams.. 04/17/2025 Read more