Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...TX Panhandle to northeast KS and vicinity through tonight... Upper ridging that currently extends from the southern Plains into eastern Manitoba/northwest Ontario is forecast to shift eastward throughout the period. This eastward shift will occur as a shortwave trough drops south-southeastward through the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies, phasing with the upper low off the southern/central CA Coast as it does. This evolution will result in strengthening southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwest into the central Plains, which in turn will foster a deepening lee surface trough across the High Plains and eventual surface cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Moisture return will also increase across the southern Plains, with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints likely across much of OK by this evening. Some thunderstorm development could occur during the late afternoon/early evening where the western edge of this moisture interacts with a dryline that extends south from the developing central High Plains surface low. Convergence along this boundary will be modest and convective initiation remains uncertain given the warm mid-level temperatures and resultant capping. Even so, an isolated storm or two appears possible from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. Strong mid-level flow (and resulting long hodographs) support a supercellular storm mode with any convection that is also to deepen and persist. Large hail and damaging gusts would be possible with any supercells. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later tonight as the surface low and any afternoon storms move eastward across southwest/south-central KS into the greater low-level moisture, and a strengthening low-level jet fosters increased warm-air advection. Hail will likely be the primary risk with these storms, but the dry subcloud layer in place could still support a few gusts to the surface as well. Overall severe coverage is still expected to remain low enough to keep 5%/Marginal probabilities. ..Mosier/Weinman.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...TX Panhandle to northeast KS and vicinity through tonight... Upper ridging that currently extends from the southern Plains into eastern Manitoba/northwest Ontario is forecast to shift eastward throughout the period. This eastward shift will occur as a shortwave trough drops south-southeastward through the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies, phasing with the upper low off the southern/central CA Coast as it does. This evolution will result in strengthening southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwest into the central Plains, which in turn will foster a deepening lee surface trough across the High Plains and eventual surface cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Moisture return will also increase across the southern Plains, with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints likely across much of OK by this evening. Some thunderstorm development could occur during the late afternoon/early evening where the western edge of this moisture interacts with a dryline that extends south from the developing central High Plains surface low. Convergence along this boundary will be modest and convective initiation remains uncertain given the warm mid-level temperatures and resultant capping. Even so, an isolated storm or two appears possible from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. Strong mid-level flow (and resulting long hodographs) support a supercellular storm mode with any convection that is also to deepen and persist. Large hail and damaging gusts would be possible with any supercells. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later tonight as the surface low and any afternoon storms move eastward across southwest/south-central KS into the greater low-level moisture, and a strengthening low-level jet fosters increased warm-air advection. Hail will likely be the primary risk with these storms, but the dry subcloud layer in place could still support a few gusts to the surface as well. Overall severe coverage is still expected to remain low enough to keep 5%/Marginal probabilities. ..Mosier/Weinman.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...TX Panhandle to northeast KS and vicinity through tonight... Upper ridging that currently extends from the southern Plains into eastern Manitoba/northwest Ontario is forecast to shift eastward throughout the period. This eastward shift will occur as a shortwave trough drops south-southeastward through the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies, phasing with the upper low off the southern/central CA Coast as it does. This evolution will result in strengthening southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwest into the central Plains, which in turn will foster a deepening lee surface trough across the High Plains and eventual surface cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Moisture return will also increase across the southern Plains, with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints likely across much of OK by this evening. Some thunderstorm development could occur during the late afternoon/early evening where the western edge of this moisture interacts with a dryline that extends south from the developing central High Plains surface low. Convergence along this boundary will be modest and convective initiation remains uncertain given the warm mid-level temperatures and resultant capping. Even so, an isolated storm or two appears possible from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. Strong mid-level flow (and resulting long hodographs) support a supercellular storm mode with any convection that is also to deepen and persist. Large hail and damaging gusts would be possible with any supercells. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later tonight as the surface low and any afternoon storms move eastward across southwest/south-central KS into the greater low-level moisture, and a strengthening low-level jet fosters increased warm-air advection. Hail will likely be the primary risk with these storms, but the dry subcloud layer in place could still support a few gusts to the surface as well. Overall severe coverage is still expected to remain low enough to keep 5%/Marginal probabilities. ..Mosier/Weinman.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...TX Panhandle to northeast KS and vicinity through tonight... Upper ridging that currently extends from the southern Plains into eastern Manitoba/northwest Ontario is forecast to shift eastward throughout the period. This eastward shift will occur as a shortwave trough drops south-southeastward through the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies, phasing with the upper low off the southern/central CA Coast as it does. This evolution will result in strengthening southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwest into the central Plains, which in turn will foster a deepening lee surface trough across the High Plains and eventual surface cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Moisture return will also increase across the southern Plains, with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints likely across much of OK by this evening. Some thunderstorm development could occur during the late afternoon/early evening where the western edge of this moisture interacts with a dryline that extends south from the developing central High Plains surface low. Convergence along this boundary will be modest and convective initiation remains uncertain given the warm mid-level temperatures and resultant capping. Even so, an isolated storm or two appears possible from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. Strong mid-level flow (and resulting long hodographs) support a supercellular storm mode with any convection that is also to deepen and persist. Large hail and damaging gusts would be possible with any supercells. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later tonight as the surface low and any afternoon storms move eastward across southwest/south-central KS into the greater low-level moisture, and a strengthening low-level jet fosters increased warm-air advection. Hail will likely be the primary risk with these storms, but the dry subcloud layer in place could still support a few gusts to the surface as well. Overall severe coverage is still expected to remain low enough to keep 5%/Marginal probabilities. ..Mosier/Weinman.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...TX Panhandle to northeast KS and vicinity through tonight... Upper ridging that currently extends from the southern Plains into eastern Manitoba/northwest Ontario is forecast to shift eastward throughout the period. This eastward shift will occur as a shortwave trough drops south-southeastward through the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies, phasing with the upper low off the southern/central CA Coast as it does. This evolution will result in strengthening southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwest into the central Plains, which in turn will foster a deepening lee surface trough across the High Plains and eventual surface cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Moisture return will also increase across the southern Plains, with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints likely across much of OK by this evening. Some thunderstorm development could occur during the late afternoon/early evening where the western edge of this moisture interacts with a dryline that extends south from the developing central High Plains surface low. Convergence along this boundary will be modest and convective initiation remains uncertain given the warm mid-level temperatures and resultant capping. Even so, an isolated storm or two appears possible from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. Strong mid-level flow (and resulting long hodographs) support a supercellular storm mode with any convection that is also to deepen and persist. Large hail and damaging gusts would be possible with any supercells. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later tonight as the surface low and any afternoon storms move eastward across southwest/south-central KS into the greater low-level moisture, and a strengthening low-level jet fosters increased warm-air advection. Hail will likely be the primary risk with these storms, but the dry subcloud layer in place could still support a few gusts to the surface as well. Overall severe coverage is still expected to remain low enough to keep 5%/Marginal probabilities. ..Mosier/Weinman.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...TX Panhandle to northeast KS and vicinity through tonight... Upper ridging that currently extends from the southern Plains into eastern Manitoba/northwest Ontario is forecast to shift eastward throughout the period. This eastward shift will occur as a shortwave trough drops south-southeastward through the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies, phasing with the upper low off the southern/central CA Coast as it does. This evolution will result in strengthening southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwest into the central Plains, which in turn will foster a deepening lee surface trough across the High Plains and eventual surface cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Moisture return will also increase across the southern Plains, with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints likely across much of OK by this evening. Some thunderstorm development could occur during the late afternoon/early evening where the western edge of this moisture interacts with a dryline that extends south from the developing central High Plains surface low. Convergence along this boundary will be modest and convective initiation remains uncertain given the warm mid-level temperatures and resultant capping. Even so, an isolated storm or two appears possible from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. Strong mid-level flow (and resulting long hodographs) support a supercellular storm mode with any convection that is also to deepen and persist. Large hail and damaging gusts would be possible with any supercells. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later tonight as the surface low and any afternoon storms move eastward across southwest/south-central KS into the greater low-level moisture, and a strengthening low-level jet fosters increased warm-air advection. Hail will likely be the primary risk with these storms, but the dry subcloud layer in place could still support a few gusts to the surface as well. Overall severe coverage is still expected to remain low enough to keep 5%/Marginal probabilities. ..Mosier/Weinman.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...TX Panhandle to northeast KS and vicinity through tonight... Upper ridging that currently extends from the southern Plains into eastern Manitoba/northwest Ontario is forecast to shift eastward throughout the period. This eastward shift will occur as a shortwave trough drops south-southeastward through the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies, phasing with the upper low off the southern/central CA Coast as it does. This evolution will result in strengthening southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwest into the central Plains, which in turn will foster a deepening lee surface trough across the High Plains and eventual surface cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Moisture return will also increase across the southern Plains, with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints likely across much of OK by this evening. Some thunderstorm development could occur during the late afternoon/early evening where the western edge of this moisture interacts with a dryline that extends south from the developing central High Plains surface low. Convergence along this boundary will be modest and convective initiation remains uncertain given the warm mid-level temperatures and resultant capping. Even so, an isolated storm or two appears possible from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. Strong mid-level flow (and resulting long hodographs) support a supercellular storm mode with any convection that is also to deepen and persist. Large hail and damaging gusts would be possible with any supercells. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later tonight as the surface low and any afternoon storms move eastward across southwest/south-central KS into the greater low-level moisture, and a strengthening low-level jet fosters increased warm-air advection. Hail will likely be the primary risk with these storms, but the dry subcloud layer in place could still support a few gusts to the surface as well. Overall severe coverage is still expected to remain low enough to keep 5%/Marginal probabilities. ..Mosier/Weinman.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...TX Panhandle to northeast KS and vicinity through tonight... Upper ridging that currently extends from the southern Plains into eastern Manitoba/northwest Ontario is forecast to shift eastward throughout the period. This eastward shift will occur as a shortwave trough drops south-southeastward through the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies, phasing with the upper low off the southern/central CA Coast as it does. This evolution will result in strengthening southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwest into the central Plains, which in turn will foster a deepening lee surface trough across the High Plains and eventual surface cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Moisture return will also increase across the southern Plains, with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints likely across much of OK by this evening. Some thunderstorm development could occur during the late afternoon/early evening where the western edge of this moisture interacts with a dryline that extends south from the developing central High Plains surface low. Convergence along this boundary will be modest and convective initiation remains uncertain given the warm mid-level temperatures and resultant capping. Even so, an isolated storm or two appears possible from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. Strong mid-level flow (and resulting long hodographs) support a supercellular storm mode with any convection that is also to deepen and persist. Large hail and damaging gusts would be possible with any supercells. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later tonight as the surface low and any afternoon storms move eastward across southwest/south-central KS into the greater low-level moisture, and a strengthening low-level jet fosters increased warm-air advection. Hail will likely be the primary risk with these storms, but the dry subcloud layer in place could still support a few gusts to the surface as well. Overall severe coverage is still expected to remain low enough to keep 5%/Marginal probabilities. ..Mosier/Weinman.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...TX Panhandle to northeast KS and vicinity through tonight... Midlevel ridging will shift slowly eastward from the Great Plains to the MS Valley by tonight, as a midlevel trough digs southward toward the northern Great Basin and begins to phase with a closed low off the CA coast. This pattern will favor west-southwesterly flow over the Rockies and lee cyclogenesis across the central High Plains. Northward advection of a modifying Gulf air mass will occur from TX to KS, beneath an elevated mixed layer. Thunderstorm development will become possible late this afternoon/evening from the TX Panhandle into southwest KS, where surface heating and sufficiently deep mixing occur along the developing dryline. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and long hodographs will favor high-based supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts. Confidence in diurnal storm development is modest, but storms that form (especially across KS) could persist/spread eastward overnight with a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...TX Panhandle to northeast KS and vicinity through tonight... Midlevel ridging will shift slowly eastward from the Great Plains to the MS Valley by tonight, as a midlevel trough digs southward toward the northern Great Basin and begins to phase with a closed low off the CA coast. This pattern will favor west-southwesterly flow over the Rockies and lee cyclogenesis across the central High Plains. Northward advection of a modifying Gulf air mass will occur from TX to KS, beneath an elevated mixed layer. Thunderstorm development will become possible late this afternoon/evening from the TX Panhandle into southwest KS, where surface heating and sufficiently deep mixing occur along the developing dryline. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and long hodographs will favor high-based supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts. Confidence in diurnal storm development is modest, but storms that form (especially across KS) could persist/spread eastward overnight with a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...TX Panhandle to northeast KS and vicinity through tonight... Midlevel ridging will shift slowly eastward from the Great Plains to the MS Valley by tonight, as a midlevel trough digs southward toward the northern Great Basin and begins to phase with a closed low off the CA coast. This pattern will favor west-southwesterly flow over the Rockies and lee cyclogenesis across the central High Plains. Northward advection of a modifying Gulf air mass will occur from TX to KS, beneath an elevated mixed layer. Thunderstorm development will become possible late this afternoon/evening from the TX Panhandle into southwest KS, where surface heating and sufficiently deep mixing occur along the developing dryline. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and long hodographs will favor high-based supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts. Confidence in diurnal storm development is modest, but storms that form (especially across KS) could persist/spread eastward overnight with a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...TX Panhandle to northeast KS and vicinity through tonight... Midlevel ridging will shift slowly eastward from the Great Plains to the MS Valley by tonight, as a midlevel trough digs southward toward the northern Great Basin and begins to phase with a closed low off the CA coast. This pattern will favor west-southwesterly flow over the Rockies and lee cyclogenesis across the central High Plains. Northward advection of a modifying Gulf air mass will occur from TX to KS, beneath an elevated mixed layer. Thunderstorm development will become possible late this afternoon/evening from the TX Panhandle into southwest KS, where surface heating and sufficiently deep mixing occur along the developing dryline. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and long hodographs will favor high-based supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts. Confidence in diurnal storm development is modest, but storms that form (especially across KS) could persist/spread eastward overnight with a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...TX Panhandle to northeast KS and vicinity through tonight... Midlevel ridging will shift slowly eastward from the Great Plains to the MS Valley by tonight, as a midlevel trough digs southward toward the northern Great Basin and begins to phase with a closed low off the CA coast. This pattern will favor west-southwesterly flow over the Rockies and lee cyclogenesis across the central High Plains. Northward advection of a modifying Gulf air mass will occur from TX to KS, beneath an elevated mixed layer. Thunderstorm development will become possible late this afternoon/evening from the TX Panhandle into southwest KS, where surface heating and sufficiently deep mixing occur along the developing dryline. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and long hodographs will favor high-based supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts. Confidence in diurnal storm development is modest, but storms that form (especially across KS) could persist/spread eastward overnight with a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/16/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential remains apparent into the weekend, but predictability wanes substantially by D5/Sunday. ...D4/Saturday... The persistent longwave trough is expected to breakdown as an embedded northern-stream shortwave impulse accelerates east across ON/QC and the basal shortwave impulse moves more gradually east into the southern High Plains. Through Saturday afternoon, an expansive swath of strong mid-level flow will persist from the central Appalachians southwestward into the southern Great Plains. The nearly stalled baroclinic zone from TX/OK into the Lower OH Valley will likely be modulated by ongoing convection on Saturday morning. But with appreciable boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist air mass to the south-southeast, scattered severe storms are plausible from the Upper OH Valley through central TX. ...D5/Sunday... The 00Z GFS and related GEFS are substantially different relative to 24 hours ago with the evolution of the compact shortwave trough ejecting across the southern Great Plains and the attendant synoptic cyclone. Most other guidance has remained relatively consistent to prior days with probable cyclogenesis from OK to the Lower MO Valley. This would result in a confined belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies overlapping a broad warm sector with rich western Gulf moisture. Potentially extensive convection in parts of OK/TX on Sunday morning does complicate exactly how far north-northwest appreciable destabilization may occur into the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley and beyond. Overall setup outside of the GFS-based guidance appears to support scattered severe storms across the South-Central States on Sunday afternoon/evening. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential remains apparent into the weekend, but predictability wanes substantially by D5/Sunday. ...D4/Saturday... The persistent longwave trough is expected to breakdown as an embedded northern-stream shortwave impulse accelerates east across ON/QC and the basal shortwave impulse moves more gradually east into the southern High Plains. Through Saturday afternoon, an expansive swath of strong mid-level flow will persist from the central Appalachians southwestward into the southern Great Plains. The nearly stalled baroclinic zone from TX/OK into the Lower OH Valley will likely be modulated by ongoing convection on Saturday morning. But with appreciable boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist air mass to the south-southeast, scattered severe storms are plausible from the Upper OH Valley through central TX. ...D5/Sunday... The 00Z GFS and related GEFS are substantially different relative to 24 hours ago with the evolution of the compact shortwave trough ejecting across the southern Great Plains and the attendant synoptic cyclone. Most other guidance has remained relatively consistent to prior days with probable cyclogenesis from OK to the Lower MO Valley. This would result in a confined belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies overlapping a broad warm sector with rich western Gulf moisture. Potentially extensive convection in parts of OK/TX on Sunday morning does complicate exactly how far north-northwest appreciable destabilization may occur into the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley and beyond. Overall setup outside of the GFS-based guidance appears to support scattered severe storms across the South-Central States on Sunday afternoon/evening. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential remains apparent into the weekend, but predictability wanes substantially by D5/Sunday. ...D4/Saturday... The persistent longwave trough is expected to breakdown as an embedded northern-stream shortwave impulse accelerates east across ON/QC and the basal shortwave impulse moves more gradually east into the southern High Plains. Through Saturday afternoon, an expansive swath of strong mid-level flow will persist from the central Appalachians southwestward into the southern Great Plains. The nearly stalled baroclinic zone from TX/OK into the Lower OH Valley will likely be modulated by ongoing convection on Saturday morning. But with appreciable boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist air mass to the south-southeast, scattered severe storms are plausible from the Upper OH Valley through central TX. ...D5/Sunday... The 00Z GFS and related GEFS are substantially different relative to 24 hours ago with the evolution of the compact shortwave trough ejecting across the southern Great Plains and the attendant synoptic cyclone. Most other guidance has remained relatively consistent to prior days with probable cyclogenesis from OK to the Lower MO Valley. This would result in a confined belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies overlapping a broad warm sector with rich western Gulf moisture. Potentially extensive convection in parts of OK/TX on Sunday morning does complicate exactly how far north-northwest appreciable destabilization may occur into the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley and beyond. Overall setup outside of the GFS-based guidance appears to support scattered severe storms across the South-Central States on Sunday afternoon/evening. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential remains apparent into the weekend, but predictability wanes substantially by D5/Sunday. ...D4/Saturday... The persistent longwave trough is expected to breakdown as an embedded northern-stream shortwave impulse accelerates east across ON/QC and the basal shortwave impulse moves more gradually east into the southern High Plains. Through Saturday afternoon, an expansive swath of strong mid-level flow will persist from the central Appalachians southwestward into the southern Great Plains. The nearly stalled baroclinic zone from TX/OK into the Lower OH Valley will likely be modulated by ongoing convection on Saturday morning. But with appreciable boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist air mass to the south-southeast, scattered severe storms are plausible from the Upper OH Valley through central TX. ...D5/Sunday... The 00Z GFS and related GEFS are substantially different relative to 24 hours ago with the evolution of the compact shortwave trough ejecting across the southern Great Plains and the attendant synoptic cyclone. Most other guidance has remained relatively consistent to prior days with probable cyclogenesis from OK to the Lower MO Valley. This would result in a confined belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies overlapping a broad warm sector with rich western Gulf moisture. Potentially extensive convection in parts of OK/TX on Sunday morning does complicate exactly how far north-northwest appreciable destabilization may occur into the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley and beyond. Overall setup outside of the GFS-based guidance appears to support scattered severe storms across the South-Central States on Sunday afternoon/evening. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential remains apparent into the weekend, but predictability wanes substantially by D5/Sunday. ...D4/Saturday... The persistent longwave trough is expected to breakdown as an embedded northern-stream shortwave impulse accelerates east across ON/QC and the basal shortwave impulse moves more gradually east into the southern High Plains. Through Saturday afternoon, an expansive swath of strong mid-level flow will persist from the central Appalachians southwestward into the southern Great Plains. The nearly stalled baroclinic zone from TX/OK into the Lower OH Valley will likely be modulated by ongoing convection on Saturday morning. But with appreciable boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist air mass to the south-southeast, scattered severe storms are plausible from the Upper OH Valley through central TX. ...D5/Sunday... The 00Z GFS and related GEFS are substantially different relative to 24 hours ago with the evolution of the compact shortwave trough ejecting across the southern Great Plains and the attendant synoptic cyclone. Most other guidance has remained relatively consistent to prior days with probable cyclogenesis from OK to the Lower MO Valley. This would result in a confined belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies overlapping a broad warm sector with rich western Gulf moisture. Potentially extensive convection in parts of OK/TX on Sunday morning does complicate exactly how far north-northwest appreciable destabilization may occur into the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley and beyond. Overall setup outside of the GFS-based guidance appears to support scattered severe storms across the South-Central States on Sunday afternoon/evening. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential remains apparent into the weekend, but predictability wanes substantially by D5/Sunday. ...D4/Saturday... The persistent longwave trough is expected to breakdown as an embedded northern-stream shortwave impulse accelerates east across ON/QC and the basal shortwave impulse moves more gradually east into the southern High Plains. Through Saturday afternoon, an expansive swath of strong mid-level flow will persist from the central Appalachians southwestward into the southern Great Plains. The nearly stalled baroclinic zone from TX/OK into the Lower OH Valley will likely be modulated by ongoing convection on Saturday morning. But with appreciable boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist air mass to the south-southeast, scattered severe storms are plausible from the Upper OH Valley through central TX. ...D5/Sunday... The 00Z GFS and related GEFS are substantially different relative to 24 hours ago with the evolution of the compact shortwave trough ejecting across the southern Great Plains and the attendant synoptic cyclone. Most other guidance has remained relatively consistent to prior days with probable cyclogenesis from OK to the Lower MO Valley. This would result in a confined belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies overlapping a broad warm sector with rich western Gulf moisture. Potentially extensive convection in parts of OK/TX on Sunday morning does complicate exactly how far north-northwest appreciable destabilization may occur into the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley and beyond. Overall setup outside of the GFS-based guidance appears to support scattered severe storms across the South-Central States on Sunday afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. ...Central Great Lakes to the Southern Great Plains... Overall forecast scenario remains consistent to prior days with an expansive swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies, downstream of a longwave trough from northern ON to the Southwest. This will overlap a similarly oriented surface front, with a cyclone tracking across the central Great Lakes portion of the baroclinic zone during the day and a separate low anchored over the southern High Plains. Mid-level height change appears largely neutral during the first half of the period, with weak height falls Friday night. A corridor of elevated thunderstorms across the far northern portion of the outlook area may be ongoing Friday morning. These could pose a risk of severe hail downstream through the day. With a pronounced EML across much of the warm sector, storm development may be delayed until late afternoon to early evening. Guidance also hints at mid to upper-level cloud coverage curtailing boundary-layer heating and weakening lapse rates aloft across the southern Great Plains, along with pockets of more shallow boundary-layer moisture near the dryline. Latest trends are for storm development generally along and to the cool side of the stalled to slowing surface front from OK to the Mid-MS Valley on Friday evening. Increasing storm coverage is anticipated Friday night northeastward into the central Great Lakes and southward in TX. Convection may predominately organize into clusters in this setup, with strong deep-layer shear supporting a mix of scattered large hail and damaging winds. ..Grams.. 04/16/2025 Read more