Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail, are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... A mid-level ridge will move eastward across the Great Plains today, as a surface low develops across northern Nebraska. In the wake of the ridge, moisture advection will increase across the southern and central Plains from late afternoon into the evening. By 00Z/Thursday, a moist axis will be located from central Oklahoma into central Kansas where surface dewpoints are forecast to be mostly in the 50s F. Early this evening, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to rapidly develop from western Oklahoma into west-central Kansas. Lift associated with the jet and low-level convergence near the dryline may be enough for isolated convective initiation. If storms can initiate and grow upscale, then isolated large hail and marginally severe gusts will be possible, aided by steep 700-500 mb lapse rates. During the mid to late evening, the potential for isolated thunderstorms capable of producing hail will likely develop eastward across parts of east-central Kansas and southeast Nebraska. As warm advection increases overnight, the hail threat may eventually affect parts of western Missouri and southwest Nebraska. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail, are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... A mid-level ridge will move eastward across the Great Plains today, as a surface low develops across northern Nebraska. In the wake of the ridge, moisture advection will increase across the southern and central Plains from late afternoon into the evening. By 00Z/Thursday, a moist axis will be located from central Oklahoma into central Kansas where surface dewpoints are forecast to be mostly in the 50s F. Early this evening, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to rapidly develop from western Oklahoma into west-central Kansas. Lift associated with the jet and low-level convergence near the dryline may be enough for isolated convective initiation. If storms can initiate and grow upscale, then isolated large hail and marginally severe gusts will be possible, aided by steep 700-500 mb lapse rates. During the mid to late evening, the potential for isolated thunderstorms capable of producing hail will likely develop eastward across parts of east-central Kansas and southeast Nebraska. As warm advection increases overnight, the hail threat may eventually affect parts of western Missouri and southwest Nebraska. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening in parts of the Sierra Mountains and in parts of the Desert Southwest. No severe threat is expected through tonight across the U.S. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast tonight, as an upper-level low approaches the coast of California. Ahead of the low, thunderstorm development will be possible this evening across parts of the Sierra Mountains, and from parts of southeast Arizona into western New Mexico. Over the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected through early morning on Wednesday. ..Broyles.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening in parts of the Sierra Mountains and in parts of the Desert Southwest. No severe threat is expected through tonight across the U.S. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast tonight, as an upper-level low approaches the coast of California. Ahead of the low, thunderstorm development will be possible this evening across parts of the Sierra Mountains, and from parts of southeast Arizona into western New Mexico. Over the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected through early morning on Wednesday. ..Broyles.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening in parts of the Sierra Mountains and in parts of the Desert Southwest. No severe threat is expected through tonight across the U.S. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast tonight, as an upper-level low approaches the coast of California. Ahead of the low, thunderstorm development will be possible this evening across parts of the Sierra Mountains, and from parts of southeast Arizona into western New Mexico. Over the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected through early morning on Wednesday. ..Broyles.. 04/16/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Apr 15 22:27:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Apr 15 22:27:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Model guidance consensus continues to support a deepening upper-level trough over the Intermountain West through Day 5/Saturday, before ejecting into the Plains and eastern U.S. early next week. Strong mid-level southwesterly flow south of this trough juxtaposed with a very dry boundary layer over the Desert Southwest will likely support Critical fire weather conditions for much of New Mexico northeastward into the Southern High Plains on Day 3/Thursday, before threat becomes more confined by Day 4/Friday as mid-level flow weakens. Elevated fire weather conditions could linger into the weekend for portions of far West Texas as a modest downslope regime remains in place. ...Day 3/Thursday... High ensemble guidance probabilities of Critical fire weather conditions suggest a higher confidence of a considerable synoptic fire weather event across New Mexico and adjacent Southern High Plains on Thursday. Sustained southwest surface winds of 20-25 mph with relative humidity falling into the single digits in many lowland locations are expected, with some high-end critical fire weather conditions possible in a few areas. The meteorological environment will overlap with persistent dry fuels across much of the Southwest, although some green-up is noted across portions of the southern Plains, acting to mitigate significant fire spread potential. ...Day 4/Friday... Mid-level jet translates across the Southwest eastward while a cold front intrudes southward into the Four Corners area, bringing some precipitation across the area Friday. However, Critical fire weather conditions are still likely across southern and eastern New Mexico ahead of the front. ...Day 5/Saturday through Day 8/Tuesday... Fire weather concerns wane overall across the Southwest as mid-level flow diminishes. There could be some downslope wind concerns across the central High Plains in the lee of the Central Rockies early next week but confidence remains low in scope and area. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Model guidance consensus continues to support a deepening upper-level trough over the Intermountain West through Day 5/Saturday, before ejecting into the Plains and eastern U.S. early next week. Strong mid-level southwesterly flow south of this trough juxtaposed with a very dry boundary layer over the Desert Southwest will likely support Critical fire weather conditions for much of New Mexico northeastward into the Southern High Plains on Day 3/Thursday, before threat becomes more confined by Day 4/Friday as mid-level flow weakens. Elevated fire weather conditions could linger into the weekend for portions of far West Texas as a modest downslope regime remains in place. ...Day 3/Thursday... High ensemble guidance probabilities of Critical fire weather conditions suggest a higher confidence of a considerable synoptic fire weather event across New Mexico and adjacent Southern High Plains on Thursday. Sustained southwest surface winds of 20-25 mph with relative humidity falling into the single digits in many lowland locations are expected, with some high-end critical fire weather conditions possible in a few areas. The meteorological environment will overlap with persistent dry fuels across much of the Southwest, although some green-up is noted across portions of the southern Plains, acting to mitigate significant fire spread potential. ...Day 4/Friday... Mid-level jet translates across the Southwest eastward while a cold front intrudes southward into the Four Corners area, bringing some precipitation across the area Friday. However, Critical fire weather conditions are still likely across southern and eastern New Mexico ahead of the front. ...Day 5/Saturday through Day 8/Tuesday... Fire weather concerns wane overall across the Southwest as mid-level flow diminishes. There could be some downslope wind concerns across the central High Plains in the lee of the Central Rockies early next week but confidence remains low in scope and area. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Model guidance consensus continues to support a deepening upper-level trough over the Intermountain West through Day 5/Saturday, before ejecting into the Plains and eastern U.S. early next week. Strong mid-level southwesterly flow south of this trough juxtaposed with a very dry boundary layer over the Desert Southwest will likely support Critical fire weather conditions for much of New Mexico northeastward into the Southern High Plains on Day 3/Thursday, before threat becomes more confined by Day 4/Friday as mid-level flow weakens. Elevated fire weather conditions could linger into the weekend for portions of far West Texas as a modest downslope regime remains in place. ...Day 3/Thursday... High ensemble guidance probabilities of Critical fire weather conditions suggest a higher confidence of a considerable synoptic fire weather event across New Mexico and adjacent Southern High Plains on Thursday. Sustained southwest surface winds of 20-25 mph with relative humidity falling into the single digits in many lowland locations are expected, with some high-end critical fire weather conditions possible in a few areas. The meteorological environment will overlap with persistent dry fuels across much of the Southwest, although some green-up is noted across portions of the southern Plains, acting to mitigate significant fire spread potential. ...Day 4/Friday... Mid-level jet translates across the Southwest eastward while a cold front intrudes southward into the Four Corners area, bringing some precipitation across the area Friday. However, Critical fire weather conditions are still likely across southern and eastern New Mexico ahead of the front. ...Day 5/Saturday through Day 8/Tuesday... Fire weather concerns wane overall across the Southwest as mid-level flow diminishes. There could be some downslope wind concerns across the central High Plains in the lee of the Central Rockies early next week but confidence remains low in scope and area. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Model guidance consensus continues to support a deepening upper-level trough over the Intermountain West through Day 5/Saturday, before ejecting into the Plains and eastern U.S. early next week. Strong mid-level southwesterly flow south of this trough juxtaposed with a very dry boundary layer over the Desert Southwest will likely support Critical fire weather conditions for much of New Mexico northeastward into the Southern High Plains on Day 3/Thursday, before threat becomes more confined by Day 4/Friday as mid-level flow weakens. Elevated fire weather conditions could linger into the weekend for portions of far West Texas as a modest downslope regime remains in place. ...Day 3/Thursday... High ensemble guidance probabilities of Critical fire weather conditions suggest a higher confidence of a considerable synoptic fire weather event across New Mexico and adjacent Southern High Plains on Thursday. Sustained southwest surface winds of 20-25 mph with relative humidity falling into the single digits in many lowland locations are expected, with some high-end critical fire weather conditions possible in a few areas. The meteorological environment will overlap with persistent dry fuels across much of the Southwest, although some green-up is noted across portions of the southern Plains, acting to mitigate significant fire spread potential. ...Day 4/Friday... Mid-level jet translates across the Southwest eastward while a cold front intrudes southward into the Four Corners area, bringing some precipitation across the area Friday. However, Critical fire weather conditions are still likely across southern and eastern New Mexico ahead of the front. ...Day 5/Saturday through Day 8/Tuesday... Fire weather concerns wane overall across the Southwest as mid-level flow diminishes. There could be some downslope wind concerns across the central High Plains in the lee of the Central Rockies early next week but confidence remains low in scope and area. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Model guidance consensus continues to support a deepening upper-level trough over the Intermountain West through Day 5/Saturday, before ejecting into the Plains and eastern U.S. early next week. Strong mid-level southwesterly flow south of this trough juxtaposed with a very dry boundary layer over the Desert Southwest will likely support Critical fire weather conditions for much of New Mexico northeastward into the Southern High Plains on Day 3/Thursday, before threat becomes more confined by Day 4/Friday as mid-level flow weakens. Elevated fire weather conditions could linger into the weekend for portions of far West Texas as a modest downslope regime remains in place. ...Day 3/Thursday... High ensemble guidance probabilities of Critical fire weather conditions suggest a higher confidence of a considerable synoptic fire weather event across New Mexico and adjacent Southern High Plains on Thursday. Sustained southwest surface winds of 20-25 mph with relative humidity falling into the single digits in many lowland locations are expected, with some high-end critical fire weather conditions possible in a few areas. The meteorological environment will overlap with persistent dry fuels across much of the Southwest, although some green-up is noted across portions of the southern Plains, acting to mitigate significant fire spread potential. ...Day 4/Friday... Mid-level jet translates across the Southwest eastward while a cold front intrudes southward into the Four Corners area, bringing some precipitation across the area Friday. However, Critical fire weather conditions are still likely across southern and eastern New Mexico ahead of the front. ...Day 5/Saturday through Day 8/Tuesday... Fire weather concerns wane overall across the Southwest as mid-level flow diminishes. There could be some downslope wind concerns across the central High Plains in the lee of the Central Rockies early next week but confidence remains low in scope and area. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Model guidance consensus continues to support a deepening upper-level trough over the Intermountain West through Day 5/Saturday, before ejecting into the Plains and eastern U.S. early next week. Strong mid-level southwesterly flow south of this trough juxtaposed with a very dry boundary layer over the Desert Southwest will likely support Critical fire weather conditions for much of New Mexico northeastward into the Southern High Plains on Day 3/Thursday, before threat becomes more confined by Day 4/Friday as mid-level flow weakens. Elevated fire weather conditions could linger into the weekend for portions of far West Texas as a modest downslope regime remains in place. ...Day 3/Thursday... High ensemble guidance probabilities of Critical fire weather conditions suggest a higher confidence of a considerable synoptic fire weather event across New Mexico and adjacent Southern High Plains on Thursday. Sustained southwest surface winds of 20-25 mph with relative humidity falling into the single digits in many lowland locations are expected, with some high-end critical fire weather conditions possible in a few areas. The meteorological environment will overlap with persistent dry fuels across much of the Southwest, although some green-up is noted across portions of the southern Plains, acting to mitigate significant fire spread potential. ...Day 4/Friday... Mid-level jet translates across the Southwest eastward while a cold front intrudes southward into the Four Corners area, bringing some precipitation across the area Friday. However, Critical fire weather conditions are still likely across southern and eastern New Mexico ahead of the front. ...Day 5/Saturday through Day 8/Tuesday... Fire weather concerns wane overall across the Southwest as mid-level flow diminishes. There could be some downslope wind concerns across the central High Plains in the lee of the Central Rockies early next week but confidence remains low in scope and area. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage will remain possible into the early evening across parts of the Northeast. ...20Z Northeast... The prior outlooks remains largely unchanged with only minor modifications. Broad-scale ascent beneath the upper low over the Eastern US is supporting scattered, but shallow convection across the Northeast and New England. Low-topped thunderstorms will likely continue to pose a risk for occasional damaging gusts this afternoon. Limited moisture, and resulting buoyancy will continue to be the limiting factor for more sustained/stronger storms. Have trimmed the western extent of the Thunder area over parts of PA/OH. Scattered non-severe storms are also possible over the Four Corners and western US, see the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025/ ...Northeast... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the eastern CONUS, a related 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will pivot eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Ascent in the left-exit region of the jet will promote widely scattered, low-topped convection across the Northeast through the afternoon. Despite limited post-frontal boundary-layer moisture, diurnal heating beneath very cold midlevel temperatures will continue to steepen low-level lapse rates amid strengthening low/mid-level winds. This environment will support locally damaging convective wind gusts (45-60 mph) through the afternoon -- especially with any small clusters/lines that can evolve. ...Four Corners into southern Colorado... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Four Corners and southern CO this afternoon, where midlevel moisture atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer will yield inverted-V profiles. As a result, a couple locally strong downbursts cannot be entirely ruled out. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage will remain possible into the early evening across parts of the Northeast. ...20Z Northeast... The prior outlooks remains largely unchanged with only minor modifications. Broad-scale ascent beneath the upper low over the Eastern US is supporting scattered, but shallow convection across the Northeast and New England. Low-topped thunderstorms will likely continue to pose a risk for occasional damaging gusts this afternoon. Limited moisture, and resulting buoyancy will continue to be the limiting factor for more sustained/stronger storms. Have trimmed the western extent of the Thunder area over parts of PA/OH. Scattered non-severe storms are also possible over the Four Corners and western US, see the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025/ ...Northeast... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the eastern CONUS, a related 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will pivot eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Ascent in the left-exit region of the jet will promote widely scattered, low-topped convection across the Northeast through the afternoon. Despite limited post-frontal boundary-layer moisture, diurnal heating beneath very cold midlevel temperatures will continue to steepen low-level lapse rates amid strengthening low/mid-level winds. This environment will support locally damaging convective wind gusts (45-60 mph) through the afternoon -- especially with any small clusters/lines that can evolve. ...Four Corners into southern Colorado... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Four Corners and southern CO this afternoon, where midlevel moisture atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer will yield inverted-V profiles. As a result, a couple locally strong downbursts cannot be entirely ruled out. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage will remain possible into the early evening across parts of the Northeast. ...20Z Northeast... The prior outlooks remains largely unchanged with only minor modifications. Broad-scale ascent beneath the upper low over the Eastern US is supporting scattered, but shallow convection across the Northeast and New England. Low-topped thunderstorms will likely continue to pose a risk for occasional damaging gusts this afternoon. Limited moisture, and resulting buoyancy will continue to be the limiting factor for more sustained/stronger storms. Have trimmed the western extent of the Thunder area over parts of PA/OH. Scattered non-severe storms are also possible over the Four Corners and western US, see the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025/ ...Northeast... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the eastern CONUS, a related 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will pivot eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Ascent in the left-exit region of the jet will promote widely scattered, low-topped convection across the Northeast through the afternoon. Despite limited post-frontal boundary-layer moisture, diurnal heating beneath very cold midlevel temperatures will continue to steepen low-level lapse rates amid strengthening low/mid-level winds. This environment will support locally damaging convective wind gusts (45-60 mph) through the afternoon -- especially with any small clusters/lines that can evolve. ...Four Corners into southern Colorado... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Four Corners and southern CO this afternoon, where midlevel moisture atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer will yield inverted-V profiles. As a result, a couple locally strong downbursts cannot be entirely ruled out. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage will remain possible into the early evening across parts of the Northeast. ...20Z Northeast... The prior outlooks remains largely unchanged with only minor modifications. Broad-scale ascent beneath the upper low over the Eastern US is supporting scattered, but shallow convection across the Northeast and New England. Low-topped thunderstorms will likely continue to pose a risk for occasional damaging gusts this afternoon. Limited moisture, and resulting buoyancy will continue to be the limiting factor for more sustained/stronger storms. Have trimmed the western extent of the Thunder area over parts of PA/OH. Scattered non-severe storms are also possible over the Four Corners and western US, see the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025/ ...Northeast... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the eastern CONUS, a related 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will pivot eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Ascent in the left-exit region of the jet will promote widely scattered, low-topped convection across the Northeast through the afternoon. Despite limited post-frontal boundary-layer moisture, diurnal heating beneath very cold midlevel temperatures will continue to steepen low-level lapse rates amid strengthening low/mid-level winds. This environment will support locally damaging convective wind gusts (45-60 mph) through the afternoon -- especially with any small clusters/lines that can evolve. ...Four Corners into southern Colorado... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Four Corners and southern CO this afternoon, where midlevel moisture atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer will yield inverted-V profiles. As a result, a couple locally strong downbursts cannot be entirely ruled out. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage will remain possible into the early evening across parts of the Northeast. ...20Z Northeast... The prior outlooks remains largely unchanged with only minor modifications. Broad-scale ascent beneath the upper low over the Eastern US is supporting scattered, but shallow convection across the Northeast and New England. Low-topped thunderstorms will likely continue to pose a risk for occasional damaging gusts this afternoon. Limited moisture, and resulting buoyancy will continue to be the limiting factor for more sustained/stronger storms. Have trimmed the western extent of the Thunder area over parts of PA/OH. Scattered non-severe storms are also possible over the Four Corners and western US, see the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025/ ...Northeast... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the eastern CONUS, a related 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will pivot eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Ascent in the left-exit region of the jet will promote widely scattered, low-topped convection across the Northeast through the afternoon. Despite limited post-frontal boundary-layer moisture, diurnal heating beneath very cold midlevel temperatures will continue to steepen low-level lapse rates amid strengthening low/mid-level winds. This environment will support locally damaging convective wind gusts (45-60 mph) through the afternoon -- especially with any small clusters/lines that can evolve. ...Four Corners into southern Colorado... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Four Corners and southern CO this afternoon, where midlevel moisture atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer will yield inverted-V profiles. As a result, a couple locally strong downbursts cannot be entirely ruled out. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage will remain possible into the early evening across parts of the Northeast. ...20Z Northeast... The prior outlooks remains largely unchanged with only minor modifications. Broad-scale ascent beneath the upper low over the Eastern US is supporting scattered, but shallow convection across the Northeast and New England. Low-topped thunderstorms will likely continue to pose a risk for occasional damaging gusts this afternoon. Limited moisture, and resulting buoyancy will continue to be the limiting factor for more sustained/stronger storms. Have trimmed the western extent of the Thunder area over parts of PA/OH. Scattered non-severe storms are also possible over the Four Corners and western US, see the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025/ ...Northeast... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the eastern CONUS, a related 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will pivot eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Ascent in the left-exit region of the jet will promote widely scattered, low-topped convection across the Northeast through the afternoon. Despite limited post-frontal boundary-layer moisture, diurnal heating beneath very cold midlevel temperatures will continue to steepen low-level lapse rates amid strengthening low/mid-level winds. This environment will support locally damaging convective wind gusts (45-60 mph) through the afternoon -- especially with any small clusters/lines that can evolve. ...Four Corners into southern Colorado... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Four Corners and southern CO this afternoon, where midlevel moisture atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer will yield inverted-V profiles. As a result, a couple locally strong downbursts cannot be entirely ruled out. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage will remain possible into the early evening across parts of the Northeast. ...20Z Northeast... The prior outlooks remains largely unchanged with only minor modifications. Broad-scale ascent beneath the upper low over the Eastern US is supporting scattered, but shallow convection across the Northeast and New England. Low-topped thunderstorms will likely continue to pose a risk for occasional damaging gusts this afternoon. Limited moisture, and resulting buoyancy will continue to be the limiting factor for more sustained/stronger storms. Have trimmed the western extent of the Thunder area over parts of PA/OH. Scattered non-severe storms are also possible over the Four Corners and western US, see the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025/ ...Northeast... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the eastern CONUS, a related 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will pivot eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Ascent in the left-exit region of the jet will promote widely scattered, low-topped convection across the Northeast through the afternoon. Despite limited post-frontal boundary-layer moisture, diurnal heating beneath very cold midlevel temperatures will continue to steepen low-level lapse rates amid strengthening low/mid-level winds. This environment will support locally damaging convective wind gusts (45-60 mph) through the afternoon -- especially with any small clusters/lines that can evolve. ...Four Corners into southern Colorado... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Four Corners and southern CO this afternoon, where midlevel moisture atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer will yield inverted-V profiles. As a result, a couple locally strong downbursts cannot be entirely ruled out. Read more