Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail, are possible on Wednesday evening/night across parts of the central Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A progressive open wave trough will shift southward from Canada before phasing with an upper-level low off the west coast of California on Wednesday. The subtropical jet will spread eastward across the central Plains, with several embedded shortwave disturbances rippling through the flow. Westerly flow across the central/southern Rockies will promote lee cyclogenesis late in the period, with an increase in a southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains. ...Central Great Plains... Southerly return flow will bring an increase of moisture into the central Plains, with potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. A limiting factor remains increasing CIN and low-level stability beneath a strong EML. Regardless, agreement has increased on convective initiation occurring near the dryline across portions of central/southern Kansas late in the period. Given the elevated nature of this convection, the greatest risk will be for large hail. This will continue into the lower MO Valley through the end of the period Thursday morning. Earlier in the period, some potential exists for development further south near the OK/KS border toward the end of peak heating in the early evening. A few hi-res solutions have hinted at development of a supercell or two within this region, apparent in UH tracks from the 12z HREF. Conditionally, an established supercell in this region could support very large hail, given steep lapse rates aloft and ample shear/CAPE. ...Elsewhere... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from northern/central California into the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the period. These are expected to be sub-severe given weak shear profiles. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail, are possible on Wednesday evening/night across parts of the central Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A progressive open wave trough will shift southward from Canada before phasing with an upper-level low off the west coast of California on Wednesday. The subtropical jet will spread eastward across the central Plains, with several embedded shortwave disturbances rippling through the flow. Westerly flow across the central/southern Rockies will promote lee cyclogenesis late in the period, with an increase in a southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains. ...Central Great Plains... Southerly return flow will bring an increase of moisture into the central Plains, with potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. A limiting factor remains increasing CIN and low-level stability beneath a strong EML. Regardless, agreement has increased on convective initiation occurring near the dryline across portions of central/southern Kansas late in the period. Given the elevated nature of this convection, the greatest risk will be for large hail. This will continue into the lower MO Valley through the end of the period Thursday morning. Earlier in the period, some potential exists for development further south near the OK/KS border toward the end of peak heating in the early evening. A few hi-res solutions have hinted at development of a supercell or two within this region, apparent in UH tracks from the 12z HREF. Conditionally, an established supercell in this region could support very large hail, given steep lapse rates aloft and ample shear/CAPE. ...Elsewhere... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from northern/central California into the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the period. These are expected to be sub-severe given weak shear profiles. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail, are possible on Wednesday evening/night across parts of the central Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A progressive open wave trough will shift southward from Canada before phasing with an upper-level low off the west coast of California on Wednesday. The subtropical jet will spread eastward across the central Plains, with several embedded shortwave disturbances rippling through the flow. Westerly flow across the central/southern Rockies will promote lee cyclogenesis late in the period, with an increase in a southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains. ...Central Great Plains... Southerly return flow will bring an increase of moisture into the central Plains, with potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. A limiting factor remains increasing CIN and low-level stability beneath a strong EML. Regardless, agreement has increased on convective initiation occurring near the dryline across portions of central/southern Kansas late in the period. Given the elevated nature of this convection, the greatest risk will be for large hail. This will continue into the lower MO Valley through the end of the period Thursday morning. Earlier in the period, some potential exists for development further south near the OK/KS border toward the end of peak heating in the early evening. A few hi-res solutions have hinted at development of a supercell or two within this region, apparent in UH tracks from the 12z HREF. Conditionally, an established supercell in this region could support very large hail, given steep lapse rates aloft and ample shear/CAPE. ...Elsewhere... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from northern/central California into the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the period. These are expected to be sub-severe given weak shear profiles. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail, are possible on Wednesday evening/night across parts of the central Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A progressive open wave trough will shift southward from Canada before phasing with an upper-level low off the west coast of California on Wednesday. The subtropical jet will spread eastward across the central Plains, with several embedded shortwave disturbances rippling through the flow. Westerly flow across the central/southern Rockies will promote lee cyclogenesis late in the period, with an increase in a southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains. ...Central Great Plains... Southerly return flow will bring an increase of moisture into the central Plains, with potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. A limiting factor remains increasing CIN and low-level stability beneath a strong EML. Regardless, agreement has increased on convective initiation occurring near the dryline across portions of central/southern Kansas late in the period. Given the elevated nature of this convection, the greatest risk will be for large hail. This will continue into the lower MO Valley through the end of the period Thursday morning. Earlier in the period, some potential exists for development further south near the OK/KS border toward the end of peak heating in the early evening. A few hi-res solutions have hinted at development of a supercell or two within this region, apparent in UH tracks from the 12z HREF. Conditionally, an established supercell in this region could support very large hail, given steep lapse rates aloft and ample shear/CAPE. ...Elsewhere... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from northern/central California into the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the period. These are expected to be sub-severe given weak shear profiles. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail, are possible on Wednesday evening/night across parts of the central Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A progressive open wave trough will shift southward from Canada before phasing with an upper-level low off the west coast of California on Wednesday. The subtropical jet will spread eastward across the central Plains, with several embedded shortwave disturbances rippling through the flow. Westerly flow across the central/southern Rockies will promote lee cyclogenesis late in the period, with an increase in a southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains. ...Central Great Plains... Southerly return flow will bring an increase of moisture into the central Plains, with potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. A limiting factor remains increasing CIN and low-level stability beneath a strong EML. Regardless, agreement has increased on convective initiation occurring near the dryline across portions of central/southern Kansas late in the period. Given the elevated nature of this convection, the greatest risk will be for large hail. This will continue into the lower MO Valley through the end of the period Thursday morning. Earlier in the period, some potential exists for development further south near the OK/KS border toward the end of peak heating in the early evening. A few hi-res solutions have hinted at development of a supercell or two within this region, apparent in UH tracks from the 12z HREF. Conditionally, an established supercell in this region could support very large hail, given steep lapse rates aloft and ample shear/CAPE. ...Elsewhere... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from northern/central California into the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the period. These are expected to be sub-severe given weak shear profiles. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail, are possible on Wednesday evening/night across parts of the central Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A progressive open wave trough will shift southward from Canada before phasing with an upper-level low off the west coast of California on Wednesday. The subtropical jet will spread eastward across the central Plains, with several embedded shortwave disturbances rippling through the flow. Westerly flow across the central/southern Rockies will promote lee cyclogenesis late in the period, with an increase in a southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains. ...Central Great Plains... Southerly return flow will bring an increase of moisture into the central Plains, with potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. A limiting factor remains increasing CIN and low-level stability beneath a strong EML. Regardless, agreement has increased on convective initiation occurring near the dryline across portions of central/southern Kansas late in the period. Given the elevated nature of this convection, the greatest risk will be for large hail. This will continue into the lower MO Valley through the end of the period Thursday morning. Earlier in the period, some potential exists for development further south near the OK/KS border toward the end of peak heating in the early evening. A few hi-res solutions have hinted at development of a supercell or two within this region, apparent in UH tracks from the 12z HREF. Conditionally, an established supercell in this region could support very large hail, given steep lapse rates aloft and ample shear/CAPE. ...Elsewhere... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from northern/central California into the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the period. These are expected to be sub-severe given weak shear profiles. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Arizona/New Mexico... Increasing but still modest mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough combined with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer is still expected to result in Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico today. ...Appalachians... Farther east, post-frontal winds from the northwest at 15-20 mph coincident with leeward downslope drying from the Appalachians are expected today across the Piedmont region. However, fuels are less receptive to wildfire spread as green-up accelerates across the area so Elevated highlights were withheld. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will move off the East Coast, leaving a dry airmass in its wake. A surface high will push cooler air into the Plains and into parts of the southern Rockies. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be present within the Southwest. Embedded shortwave troughs may further enhance these winds locally. ...Arizona/New Mexico... The shortwave trough expected to impact eastern Arizona and western New Mexico has had a slight weakening trend in guidance. Even so, some enhancement to the mid-level winds are expected to occur during the afternoon. West of the cold air intrusion in the southern Rockies, temperatures will warm into the 80s to perhaps near 90 F. This will support RH of 15-20%. Winds will not be particularly strong, but 15 mph with localized pockets of 20 mph is possible. Elevated fire weather is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Arizona/New Mexico... Increasing but still modest mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough combined with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer is still expected to result in Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico today. ...Appalachians... Farther east, post-frontal winds from the northwest at 15-20 mph coincident with leeward downslope drying from the Appalachians are expected today across the Piedmont region. However, fuels are less receptive to wildfire spread as green-up accelerates across the area so Elevated highlights were withheld. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will move off the East Coast, leaving a dry airmass in its wake. A surface high will push cooler air into the Plains and into parts of the southern Rockies. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be present within the Southwest. Embedded shortwave troughs may further enhance these winds locally. ...Arizona/New Mexico... The shortwave trough expected to impact eastern Arizona and western New Mexico has had a slight weakening trend in guidance. Even so, some enhancement to the mid-level winds are expected to occur during the afternoon. West of the cold air intrusion in the southern Rockies, temperatures will warm into the 80s to perhaps near 90 F. This will support RH of 15-20%. Winds will not be particularly strong, but 15 mph with localized pockets of 20 mph is possible. Elevated fire weather is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Arizona/New Mexico... Increasing but still modest mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough combined with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer is still expected to result in Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico today. ...Appalachians... Farther east, post-frontal winds from the northwest at 15-20 mph coincident with leeward downslope drying from the Appalachians are expected today across the Piedmont region. However, fuels are less receptive to wildfire spread as green-up accelerates across the area so Elevated highlights were withheld. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will move off the East Coast, leaving a dry airmass in its wake. A surface high will push cooler air into the Plains and into parts of the southern Rockies. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be present within the Southwest. Embedded shortwave troughs may further enhance these winds locally. ...Arizona/New Mexico... The shortwave trough expected to impact eastern Arizona and western New Mexico has had a slight weakening trend in guidance. Even so, some enhancement to the mid-level winds are expected to occur during the afternoon. West of the cold air intrusion in the southern Rockies, temperatures will warm into the 80s to perhaps near 90 F. This will support RH of 15-20%. Winds will not be particularly strong, but 15 mph with localized pockets of 20 mph is possible. Elevated fire weather is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Arizona/New Mexico... Increasing but still modest mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough combined with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer is still expected to result in Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico today. ...Appalachians... Farther east, post-frontal winds from the northwest at 15-20 mph coincident with leeward downslope drying from the Appalachians are expected today across the Piedmont region. However, fuels are less receptive to wildfire spread as green-up accelerates across the area so Elevated highlights were withheld. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will move off the East Coast, leaving a dry airmass in its wake. A surface high will push cooler air into the Plains and into parts of the southern Rockies. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be present within the Southwest. Embedded shortwave troughs may further enhance these winds locally. ...Arizona/New Mexico... The shortwave trough expected to impact eastern Arizona and western New Mexico has had a slight weakening trend in guidance. Even so, some enhancement to the mid-level winds are expected to occur during the afternoon. West of the cold air intrusion in the southern Rockies, temperatures will warm into the 80s to perhaps near 90 F. This will support RH of 15-20%. Winds will not be particularly strong, but 15 mph with localized pockets of 20 mph is possible. Elevated fire weather is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Arizona/New Mexico... Increasing but still modest mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough combined with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer is still expected to result in Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico today. ...Appalachians... Farther east, post-frontal winds from the northwest at 15-20 mph coincident with leeward downslope drying from the Appalachians are expected today across the Piedmont region. However, fuels are less receptive to wildfire spread as green-up accelerates across the area so Elevated highlights were withheld. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will move off the East Coast, leaving a dry airmass in its wake. A surface high will push cooler air into the Plains and into parts of the southern Rockies. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be present within the Southwest. Embedded shortwave troughs may further enhance these winds locally. ...Arizona/New Mexico... The shortwave trough expected to impact eastern Arizona and western New Mexico has had a slight weakening trend in guidance. Even so, some enhancement to the mid-level winds are expected to occur during the afternoon. West of the cold air intrusion in the southern Rockies, temperatures will warm into the 80s to perhaps near 90 F. This will support RH of 15-20%. Winds will not be particularly strong, but 15 mph with localized pockets of 20 mph is possible. Elevated fire weather is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Arizona/New Mexico... Increasing but still modest mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough combined with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer is still expected to result in Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico today. ...Appalachians... Farther east, post-frontal winds from the northwest at 15-20 mph coincident with leeward downslope drying from the Appalachians are expected today across the Piedmont region. However, fuels are less receptive to wildfire spread as green-up accelerates across the area so Elevated highlights were withheld. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will move off the East Coast, leaving a dry airmass in its wake. A surface high will push cooler air into the Plains and into parts of the southern Rockies. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be present within the Southwest. Embedded shortwave troughs may further enhance these winds locally. ...Arizona/New Mexico... The shortwave trough expected to impact eastern Arizona and western New Mexico has had a slight weakening trend in guidance. Even so, some enhancement to the mid-level winds are expected to occur during the afternoon. West of the cold air intrusion in the southern Rockies, temperatures will warm into the 80s to perhaps near 90 F. This will support RH of 15-20%. Winds will not be particularly strong, but 15 mph with localized pockets of 20 mph is possible. Elevated fire weather is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Arizona/New Mexico... Increasing but still modest mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough combined with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer is still expected to result in Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico today. ...Appalachians... Farther east, post-frontal winds from the northwest at 15-20 mph coincident with leeward downslope drying from the Appalachians are expected today across the Piedmont region. However, fuels are less receptive to wildfire spread as green-up accelerates across the area so Elevated highlights were withheld. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will move off the East Coast, leaving a dry airmass in its wake. A surface high will push cooler air into the Plains and into parts of the southern Rockies. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be present within the Southwest. Embedded shortwave troughs may further enhance these winds locally. ...Arizona/New Mexico... The shortwave trough expected to impact eastern Arizona and western New Mexico has had a slight weakening trend in guidance. Even so, some enhancement to the mid-level winds are expected to occur during the afternoon. West of the cold air intrusion in the southern Rockies, temperatures will warm into the 80s to perhaps near 90 F. This will support RH of 15-20%. Winds will not be particularly strong, but 15 mph with localized pockets of 20 mph is possible. Elevated fire weather is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Arizona/New Mexico... Increasing but still modest mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough combined with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer is still expected to result in Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico today. ...Appalachians... Farther east, post-frontal winds from the northwest at 15-20 mph coincident with leeward downslope drying from the Appalachians are expected today across the Piedmont region. However, fuels are less receptive to wildfire spread as green-up accelerates across the area so Elevated highlights were withheld. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will move off the East Coast, leaving a dry airmass in its wake. A surface high will push cooler air into the Plains and into parts of the southern Rockies. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be present within the Southwest. Embedded shortwave troughs may further enhance these winds locally. ...Arizona/New Mexico... The shortwave trough expected to impact eastern Arizona and western New Mexico has had a slight weakening trend in guidance. Even so, some enhancement to the mid-level winds are expected to occur during the afternoon. West of the cold air intrusion in the southern Rockies, temperatures will warm into the 80s to perhaps near 90 F. This will support RH of 15-20%. Winds will not be particularly strong, but 15 mph with localized pockets of 20 mph is possible. Elevated fire weather is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon across parts of the Northeast. ...Northeast... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the eastern CONUS, a related 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will pivot eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Ascent in the left-exit region of the jet will promote widely scattered, low-topped convection across the Northeast through the afternoon. Despite limited post-frontal boundary-layer moisture, diurnal heating beneath very cold midlevel temperatures will continue to steepen low-level lapse rates amid strengthening low/mid-level winds. This environment will support locally damaging convective wind gusts (45-60 mph) through the afternoon -- especially with any small clusters/lines that can evolve. ...Four Corners into southern Colorado... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Four Corners and southern CO this afternoon, where midlevel moisture atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer will yield inverted-V profiles. As a result, a couple locally strong downbursts cannot be entirely ruled out. ..Weinman.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon across parts of the Northeast. ...Northeast... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the eastern CONUS, a related 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will pivot eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Ascent in the left-exit region of the jet will promote widely scattered, low-topped convection across the Northeast through the afternoon. Despite limited post-frontal boundary-layer moisture, diurnal heating beneath very cold midlevel temperatures will continue to steepen low-level lapse rates amid strengthening low/mid-level winds. This environment will support locally damaging convective wind gusts (45-60 mph) through the afternoon -- especially with any small clusters/lines that can evolve. ...Four Corners into southern Colorado... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Four Corners and southern CO this afternoon, where midlevel moisture atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer will yield inverted-V profiles. As a result, a couple locally strong downbursts cannot be entirely ruled out. ..Weinman.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon across parts of the Northeast. ...Northeast... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the eastern CONUS, a related 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will pivot eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Ascent in the left-exit region of the jet will promote widely scattered, low-topped convection across the Northeast through the afternoon. Despite limited post-frontal boundary-layer moisture, diurnal heating beneath very cold midlevel temperatures will continue to steepen low-level lapse rates amid strengthening low/mid-level winds. This environment will support locally damaging convective wind gusts (45-60 mph) through the afternoon -- especially with any small clusters/lines that can evolve. ...Four Corners into southern Colorado... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Four Corners and southern CO this afternoon, where midlevel moisture atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer will yield inverted-V profiles. As a result, a couple locally strong downbursts cannot be entirely ruled out. ..Weinman.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon across parts of the Northeast. ...Northeast... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the eastern CONUS, a related 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will pivot eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Ascent in the left-exit region of the jet will promote widely scattered, low-topped convection across the Northeast through the afternoon. Despite limited post-frontal boundary-layer moisture, diurnal heating beneath very cold midlevel temperatures will continue to steepen low-level lapse rates amid strengthening low/mid-level winds. This environment will support locally damaging convective wind gusts (45-60 mph) through the afternoon -- especially with any small clusters/lines that can evolve. ...Four Corners into southern Colorado... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Four Corners and southern CO this afternoon, where midlevel moisture atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer will yield inverted-V profiles. As a result, a couple locally strong downbursts cannot be entirely ruled out. ..Weinman.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon across parts of the Northeast. ...Northeast... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the eastern CONUS, a related 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will pivot eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Ascent in the left-exit region of the jet will promote widely scattered, low-topped convection across the Northeast through the afternoon. Despite limited post-frontal boundary-layer moisture, diurnal heating beneath very cold midlevel temperatures will continue to steepen low-level lapse rates amid strengthening low/mid-level winds. This environment will support locally damaging convective wind gusts (45-60 mph) through the afternoon -- especially with any small clusters/lines that can evolve. ...Four Corners into southern Colorado... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Four Corners and southern CO this afternoon, where midlevel moisture atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer will yield inverted-V profiles. As a result, a couple locally strong downbursts cannot be entirely ruled out. ..Weinman.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon across parts of the Northeast. ...Northeast... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the eastern CONUS, a related 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will pivot eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Ascent in the left-exit region of the jet will promote widely scattered, low-topped convection across the Northeast through the afternoon. Despite limited post-frontal boundary-layer moisture, diurnal heating beneath very cold midlevel temperatures will continue to steepen low-level lapse rates amid strengthening low/mid-level winds. This environment will support locally damaging convective wind gusts (45-60 mph) through the afternoon -- especially with any small clusters/lines that can evolve. ...Four Corners into southern Colorado... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Four Corners and southern CO this afternoon, where midlevel moisture atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer will yield inverted-V profiles. As a result, a couple locally strong downbursts cannot be entirely ruled out. ..Weinman.. 04/15/2025 Read more