Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z Latest model guidance consensus reveals a higher confidence in eastern extent of Elevated fire weather concerns over portions of the Desert Southwest as an upper-level short wave pushes through the region tomorrow. Expected southwest winds of 15-20 mph combined with a dry boundary layer to promote Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Arizona into southwestern and central New Mexico. Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms with limited surface precipitation are expected across the Four Corners area. A very dry sub-cloud layer could result in gusty surface winds from virga, but a significant dry lightning event is not expected in the marginal convective environment. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface high will push into the southern Rockies on Tuesday. A weakening shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. Farther east, a strong upper trough will move through the East Coast through the day. A cold front will move offshore early afternoon with gusty northwest wind filling in behind it. ...Southwest... How far the cooler air pushes westward will determine the exact extent of fire weather risk in the vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border. Current guidance would suggest a primarily upslope regime into central Mexico with cooler temperatures and higher RH. West of this cooler air, the upper shortwave trough will be favorably timed during the afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire weather. Surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% will be possible. ...Piedmont/Blue Ridge... RH of 20-25% is possible in the wake of the cold front where modest downslope winds off of the Appalachians will occur. Winds will potentially reach 15-20 mph. Despite these conditions, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuel receptiveness. No highlights will be added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z Latest model guidance consensus reveals a higher confidence in eastern extent of Elevated fire weather concerns over portions of the Desert Southwest as an upper-level short wave pushes through the region tomorrow. Expected southwest winds of 15-20 mph combined with a dry boundary layer to promote Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Arizona into southwestern and central New Mexico. Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms with limited surface precipitation are expected across the Four Corners area. A very dry sub-cloud layer could result in gusty surface winds from virga, but a significant dry lightning event is not expected in the marginal convective environment. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface high will push into the southern Rockies on Tuesday. A weakening shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. Farther east, a strong upper trough will move through the East Coast through the day. A cold front will move offshore early afternoon with gusty northwest wind filling in behind it. ...Southwest... How far the cooler air pushes westward will determine the exact extent of fire weather risk in the vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border. Current guidance would suggest a primarily upslope regime into central Mexico with cooler temperatures and higher RH. West of this cooler air, the upper shortwave trough will be favorably timed during the afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire weather. Surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% will be possible. ...Piedmont/Blue Ridge... RH of 20-25% is possible in the wake of the cold front where modest downslope winds off of the Appalachians will occur. Winds will potentially reach 15-20 mph. Despite these conditions, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuel receptiveness. No highlights will be added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z Latest model guidance consensus reveals a higher confidence in eastern extent of Elevated fire weather concerns over portions of the Desert Southwest as an upper-level short wave pushes through the region tomorrow. Expected southwest winds of 15-20 mph combined with a dry boundary layer to promote Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Arizona into southwestern and central New Mexico. Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms with limited surface precipitation are expected across the Four Corners area. A very dry sub-cloud layer could result in gusty surface winds from virga, but a significant dry lightning event is not expected in the marginal convective environment. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface high will push into the southern Rockies on Tuesday. A weakening shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. Farther east, a strong upper trough will move through the East Coast through the day. A cold front will move offshore early afternoon with gusty northwest wind filling in behind it. ...Southwest... How far the cooler air pushes westward will determine the exact extent of fire weather risk in the vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border. Current guidance would suggest a primarily upslope regime into central Mexico with cooler temperatures and higher RH. West of this cooler air, the upper shortwave trough will be favorably timed during the afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire weather. Surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% will be possible. ...Piedmont/Blue Ridge... RH of 20-25% is possible in the wake of the cold front where modest downslope winds off of the Appalachians will occur. Winds will potentially reach 15-20 mph. Despite these conditions, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuel receptiveness. No highlights will be added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z Latest model guidance consensus reveals a higher confidence in eastern extent of Elevated fire weather concerns over portions of the Desert Southwest as an upper-level short wave pushes through the region tomorrow. Expected southwest winds of 15-20 mph combined with a dry boundary layer to promote Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Arizona into southwestern and central New Mexico. Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms with limited surface precipitation are expected across the Four Corners area. A very dry sub-cloud layer could result in gusty surface winds from virga, but a significant dry lightning event is not expected in the marginal convective environment. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface high will push into the southern Rockies on Tuesday. A weakening shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. Farther east, a strong upper trough will move through the East Coast through the day. A cold front will move offshore early afternoon with gusty northwest wind filling in behind it. ...Southwest... How far the cooler air pushes westward will determine the exact extent of fire weather risk in the vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border. Current guidance would suggest a primarily upslope regime into central Mexico with cooler temperatures and higher RH. West of this cooler air, the upper shortwave trough will be favorably timed during the afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire weather. Surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% will be possible. ...Piedmont/Blue Ridge... RH of 20-25% is possible in the wake of the cold front where modest downslope winds off of the Appalachians will occur. Winds will potentially reach 15-20 mph. Despite these conditions, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuel receptiveness. No highlights will be added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z Latest model guidance consensus reveals a higher confidence in eastern extent of Elevated fire weather concerns over portions of the Desert Southwest as an upper-level short wave pushes through the region tomorrow. Expected southwest winds of 15-20 mph combined with a dry boundary layer to promote Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Arizona into southwestern and central New Mexico. Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms with limited surface precipitation are expected across the Four Corners area. A very dry sub-cloud layer could result in gusty surface winds from virga, but a significant dry lightning event is not expected in the marginal convective environment. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface high will push into the southern Rockies on Tuesday. A weakening shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. Farther east, a strong upper trough will move through the East Coast through the day. A cold front will move offshore early afternoon with gusty northwest wind filling in behind it. ...Southwest... How far the cooler air pushes westward will determine the exact extent of fire weather risk in the vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border. Current guidance would suggest a primarily upslope regime into central Mexico with cooler temperatures and higher RH. West of this cooler air, the upper shortwave trough will be favorably timed during the afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire weather. Surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% will be possible. ...Piedmont/Blue Ridge... RH of 20-25% is possible in the wake of the cold front where modest downslope winds off of the Appalachians will occur. Winds will potentially reach 15-20 mph. Despite these conditions, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuel receptiveness. No highlights will be added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z Latest model guidance consensus reveals a higher confidence in eastern extent of Elevated fire weather concerns over portions of the Desert Southwest as an upper-level short wave pushes through the region tomorrow. Expected southwest winds of 15-20 mph combined with a dry boundary layer to promote Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Arizona into southwestern and central New Mexico. Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms with limited surface precipitation are expected across the Four Corners area. A very dry sub-cloud layer could result in gusty surface winds from virga, but a significant dry lightning event is not expected in the marginal convective environment. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface high will push into the southern Rockies on Tuesday. A weakening shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. Farther east, a strong upper trough will move through the East Coast through the day. A cold front will move offshore early afternoon with gusty northwest wind filling in behind it. ...Southwest... How far the cooler air pushes westward will determine the exact extent of fire weather risk in the vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border. Current guidance would suggest a primarily upslope regime into central Mexico with cooler temperatures and higher RH. West of this cooler air, the upper shortwave trough will be favorably timed during the afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire weather. Surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% will be possible. ...Piedmont/Blue Ridge... RH of 20-25% is possible in the wake of the cold front where modest downslope winds off of the Appalachians will occur. Winds will potentially reach 15-20 mph. Despite these conditions, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuel receptiveness. No highlights will be added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z Latest model guidance consensus reveals a higher confidence in eastern extent of Elevated fire weather concerns over portions of the Desert Southwest as an upper-level short wave pushes through the region tomorrow. Expected southwest winds of 15-20 mph combined with a dry boundary layer to promote Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Arizona into southwestern and central New Mexico. Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms with limited surface precipitation are expected across the Four Corners area. A very dry sub-cloud layer could result in gusty surface winds from virga, but a significant dry lightning event is not expected in the marginal convective environment. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface high will push into the southern Rockies on Tuesday. A weakening shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. Farther east, a strong upper trough will move through the East Coast through the day. A cold front will move offshore early afternoon with gusty northwest wind filling in behind it. ...Southwest... How far the cooler air pushes westward will determine the exact extent of fire weather risk in the vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border. Current guidance would suggest a primarily upslope regime into central Mexico with cooler temperatures and higher RH. West of this cooler air, the upper shortwave trough will be favorably timed during the afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire weather. Surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% will be possible. ...Piedmont/Blue Ridge... RH of 20-25% is possible in the wake of the cold front where modest downslope winds off of the Appalachians will occur. Winds will potentially reach 15-20 mph. Despite these conditions, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuel receptiveness. No highlights will be added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z Latest model guidance consensus reveals a higher confidence in eastern extent of Elevated fire weather concerns over portions of the Desert Southwest as an upper-level short wave pushes through the region tomorrow. Expected southwest winds of 15-20 mph combined with a dry boundary layer to promote Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Arizona into southwestern and central New Mexico. Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms with limited surface precipitation are expected across the Four Corners area. A very dry sub-cloud layer could result in gusty surface winds from virga, but a significant dry lightning event is not expected in the marginal convective environment. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface high will push into the southern Rockies on Tuesday. A weakening shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. Farther east, a strong upper trough will move through the East Coast through the day. A cold front will move offshore early afternoon with gusty northwest wind filling in behind it. ...Southwest... How far the cooler air pushes westward will determine the exact extent of fire weather risk in the vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border. Current guidance would suggest a primarily upslope regime into central Mexico with cooler temperatures and higher RH. West of this cooler air, the upper shortwave trough will be favorably timed during the afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire weather. Surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% will be possible. ...Piedmont/Blue Ridge... RH of 20-25% is possible in the wake of the cold front where modest downslope winds off of the Appalachians will occur. Winds will potentially reach 15-20 mph. Despite these conditions, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuel receptiveness. No highlights will be added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z Latest model guidance consensus reveals a higher confidence in eastern extent of Elevated fire weather concerns over portions of the Desert Southwest as an upper-level short wave pushes through the region tomorrow. Expected southwest winds of 15-20 mph combined with a dry boundary layer to promote Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Arizona into southwestern and central New Mexico. Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms with limited surface precipitation are expected across the Four Corners area. A very dry sub-cloud layer could result in gusty surface winds from virga, but a significant dry lightning event is not expected in the marginal convective environment. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface high will push into the southern Rockies on Tuesday. A weakening shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. Farther east, a strong upper trough will move through the East Coast through the day. A cold front will move offshore early afternoon with gusty northwest wind filling in behind it. ...Southwest... How far the cooler air pushes westward will determine the exact extent of fire weather risk in the vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border. Current guidance would suggest a primarily upslope regime into central Mexico with cooler temperatures and higher RH. West of this cooler air, the upper shortwave trough will be favorably timed during the afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire weather. Surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% will be possible. ...Piedmont/Blue Ridge... RH of 20-25% is possible in the wake of the cold front where modest downslope winds off of the Appalachians will occur. Winds will potentially reach 15-20 mph. Despite these conditions, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuel receptiveness. No highlights will be added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z Latest model guidance consensus reveals a higher confidence in eastern extent of Elevated fire weather concerns over portions of the Desert Southwest as an upper-level short wave pushes through the region tomorrow. Expected southwest winds of 15-20 mph combined with a dry boundary layer to promote Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Arizona into southwestern and central New Mexico. Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms with limited surface precipitation are expected across the Four Corners area. A very dry sub-cloud layer could result in gusty surface winds from virga, but a significant dry lightning event is not expected in the marginal convective environment. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface high will push into the southern Rockies on Tuesday. A weakening shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. Farther east, a strong upper trough will move through the East Coast through the day. A cold front will move offshore early afternoon with gusty northwest wind filling in behind it. ...Southwest... How far the cooler air pushes westward will determine the exact extent of fire weather risk in the vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border. Current guidance would suggest a primarily upslope regime into central Mexico with cooler temperatures and higher RH. West of this cooler air, the upper shortwave trough will be favorably timed during the afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire weather. Surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% will be possible. ...Piedmont/Blue Ridge... RH of 20-25% is possible in the wake of the cold front where modest downslope winds off of the Appalachians will occur. Winds will potentially reach 15-20 mph. Despite these conditions, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuel receptiveness. No highlights will be added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z Latest model guidance consensus reveals a higher confidence in eastern extent of Elevated fire weather concerns over portions of the Desert Southwest as an upper-level short wave pushes through the region tomorrow. Expected southwest winds of 15-20 mph combined with a dry boundary layer to promote Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Arizona into southwestern and central New Mexico. Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms with limited surface precipitation are expected across the Four Corners area. A very dry sub-cloud layer could result in gusty surface winds from virga, but a significant dry lightning event is not expected in the marginal convective environment. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface high will push into the southern Rockies on Tuesday. A weakening shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. Farther east, a strong upper trough will move through the East Coast through the day. A cold front will move offshore early afternoon with gusty northwest wind filling in behind it. ...Southwest... How far the cooler air pushes westward will determine the exact extent of fire weather risk in the vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border. Current guidance would suggest a primarily upslope regime into central Mexico with cooler temperatures and higher RH. West of this cooler air, the upper shortwave trough will be favorably timed during the afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire weather. Surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% will be possible. ...Piedmont/Blue Ridge... RH of 20-25% is possible in the wake of the cold front where modest downslope winds off of the Appalachians will occur. Winds will potentially reach 15-20 mph. Despite these conditions, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuel receptiveness. No highlights will be added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z Latest model guidance consensus reveals a higher confidence in eastern extent of Elevated fire weather concerns over portions of the Desert Southwest as an upper-level short wave pushes through the region tomorrow. Expected southwest winds of 15-20 mph combined with a dry boundary layer to promote Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Arizona into southwestern and central New Mexico. Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms with limited surface precipitation are expected across the Four Corners area. A very dry sub-cloud layer could result in gusty surface winds from virga, but a significant dry lightning event is not expected in the marginal convective environment. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface high will push into the southern Rockies on Tuesday. A weakening shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. Farther east, a strong upper trough will move through the East Coast through the day. A cold front will move offshore early afternoon with gusty northwest wind filling in behind it. ...Southwest... How far the cooler air pushes westward will determine the exact extent of fire weather risk in the vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border. Current guidance would suggest a primarily upslope regime into central Mexico with cooler temperatures and higher RH. West of this cooler air, the upper shortwave trough will be favorably timed during the afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire weather. Surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% will be possible. ...Piedmont/Blue Ridge... RH of 20-25% is possible in the wake of the cold front where modest downslope winds off of the Appalachians will occur. Winds will potentially reach 15-20 mph. Despite these conditions, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuel receptiveness. No highlights will be added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z Latest model guidance consensus reveals a higher confidence in eastern extent of Elevated fire weather concerns over portions of the Desert Southwest as an upper-level short wave pushes through the region tomorrow. Expected southwest winds of 15-20 mph combined with a dry boundary layer to promote Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Arizona into southwestern and central New Mexico. Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms with limited surface precipitation are expected across the Four Corners area. A very dry sub-cloud layer could result in gusty surface winds from virga, but a significant dry lightning event is not expected in the marginal convective environment. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface high will push into the southern Rockies on Tuesday. A weakening shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. Farther east, a strong upper trough will move through the East Coast through the day. A cold front will move offshore early afternoon with gusty northwest wind filling in behind it. ...Southwest... How far the cooler air pushes westward will determine the exact extent of fire weather risk in the vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border. Current guidance would suggest a primarily upslope regime into central Mexico with cooler temperatures and higher RH. West of this cooler air, the upper shortwave trough will be favorably timed during the afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire weather. Surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% will be possible. ...Piedmont/Blue Ridge... RH of 20-25% is possible in the wake of the cold front where modest downslope winds off of the Appalachians will occur. Winds will potentially reach 15-20 mph. Despite these conditions, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuel receptiveness. No highlights will be added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z Latest model guidance consensus reveals a higher confidence in eastern extent of Elevated fire weather concerns over portions of the Desert Southwest as an upper-level short wave pushes through the region tomorrow. Expected southwest winds of 15-20 mph combined with a dry boundary layer to promote Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Arizona into southwestern and central New Mexico. Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms with limited surface precipitation are expected across the Four Corners area. A very dry sub-cloud layer could result in gusty surface winds from virga, but a significant dry lightning event is not expected in the marginal convective environment. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface high will push into the southern Rockies on Tuesday. A weakening shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. Farther east, a strong upper trough will move through the East Coast through the day. A cold front will move offshore early afternoon with gusty northwest wind filling in behind it. ...Southwest... How far the cooler air pushes westward will determine the exact extent of fire weather risk in the vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border. Current guidance would suggest a primarily upslope regime into central Mexico with cooler temperatures and higher RH. West of this cooler air, the upper shortwave trough will be favorably timed during the afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire weather. Surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% will be possible. ...Piedmont/Blue Ridge... RH of 20-25% is possible in the wake of the cold front where modest downslope winds off of the Appalachians will occur. Winds will potentially reach 15-20 mph. Despite these conditions, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuel receptiveness. No highlights will be added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0138 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0138 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0138 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0138 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0138 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0138 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 14 19:24:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A broad area of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the West into the northern Rockies and central Plains. This is in response to forcing for ascent increasing with a broad area of enhanced mid-level flow rounding the western US trough. Largely, thunderstorms will be disorganized and sub-severe, owing to poor moisture and weak shear profiles. ...Central Plains... Large scale ascent will lead to potential for initial isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the central Plains Wednesday afternoon. This will remain sub-severe given marginal moisture profiles and presence of a strong EML. As west to southwesterly mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur Wednesday evening. This will result in mass response with an increase in the southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains by late evening into the early morning Thursday. Return of more appreciable moisture will spread into portions of eastern Kansas. Convective potential will be tempered by a strong EML and better forcing remaining to the north of this region. However, should elevated thunderstorm development occur, some conditional risk for large hail would be possible. Given uncertainty in convective initiation, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A broad area of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the West into the northern Rockies and central Plains. This is in response to forcing for ascent increasing with a broad area of enhanced mid-level flow rounding the western US trough. Largely, thunderstorms will be disorganized and sub-severe, owing to poor moisture and weak shear profiles. ...Central Plains... Large scale ascent will lead to potential for initial isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the central Plains Wednesday afternoon. This will remain sub-severe given marginal moisture profiles and presence of a strong EML. As west to southwesterly mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur Wednesday evening. This will result in mass response with an increase in the southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains by late evening into the early morning Thursday. Return of more appreciable moisture will spread into portions of eastern Kansas. Convective potential will be tempered by a strong EML and better forcing remaining to the north of this region. However, should elevated thunderstorm development occur, some conditional risk for large hail would be possible. Given uncertainty in convective initiation, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025 Read more