Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A broad area of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the West into the northern Rockies and central Plains. This is in response to forcing for ascent increasing with a broad area of enhanced mid-level flow rounding the western US trough. Largely, thunderstorms will be disorganized and sub-severe, owing to poor moisture and weak shear profiles. ...Central Plains... Large scale ascent will lead to potential for initial isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the central Plains Wednesday afternoon. This will remain sub-severe given marginal moisture profiles and presence of a strong EML. As west to southwesterly mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur Wednesday evening. This will result in mass response with an increase in the southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains by late evening into the early morning Thursday. Return of more appreciable moisture will spread into portions of eastern Kansas. Convective potential will be tempered by a strong EML and better forcing remaining to the north of this region. However, should elevated thunderstorm development occur, some conditional risk for large hail would be possible. Given uncertainty in convective initiation, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A broad area of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the West into the northern Rockies and central Plains. This is in response to forcing for ascent increasing with a broad area of enhanced mid-level flow rounding the western US trough. Largely, thunderstorms will be disorganized and sub-severe, owing to poor moisture and weak shear profiles. ...Central Plains... Large scale ascent will lead to potential for initial isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the central Plains Wednesday afternoon. This will remain sub-severe given marginal moisture profiles and presence of a strong EML. As west to southwesterly mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur Wednesday evening. This will result in mass response with an increase in the southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains by late evening into the early morning Thursday. Return of more appreciable moisture will spread into portions of eastern Kansas. Convective potential will be tempered by a strong EML and better forcing remaining to the north of this region. However, should elevated thunderstorm development occur, some conditional risk for large hail would be possible. Given uncertainty in convective initiation, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A broad area of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the West into the northern Rockies and central Plains. This is in response to forcing for ascent increasing with a broad area of enhanced mid-level flow rounding the western US trough. Largely, thunderstorms will be disorganized and sub-severe, owing to poor moisture and weak shear profiles. ...Central Plains... Large scale ascent will lead to potential for initial isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the central Plains Wednesday afternoon. This will remain sub-severe given marginal moisture profiles and presence of a strong EML. As west to southwesterly mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur Wednesday evening. This will result in mass response with an increase in the southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains by late evening into the early morning Thursday. Return of more appreciable moisture will spread into portions of eastern Kansas. Convective potential will be tempered by a strong EML and better forcing remaining to the north of this region. However, should elevated thunderstorm development occur, some conditional risk for large hail would be possible. Given uncertainty in convective initiation, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A broad area of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the West into the northern Rockies and central Plains. This is in response to forcing for ascent increasing with a broad area of enhanced mid-level flow rounding the western US trough. Largely, thunderstorms will be disorganized and sub-severe, owing to poor moisture and weak shear profiles. ...Central Plains... Large scale ascent will lead to potential for initial isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the central Plains Wednesday afternoon. This will remain sub-severe given marginal moisture profiles and presence of a strong EML. As west to southwesterly mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur Wednesday evening. This will result in mass response with an increase in the southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains by late evening into the early morning Thursday. Return of more appreciable moisture will spread into portions of eastern Kansas. Convective potential will be tempered by a strong EML and better forcing remaining to the north of this region. However, should elevated thunderstorm development occur, some conditional risk for large hail would be possible. Given uncertainty in convective initiation, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A broad area of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the West into the northern Rockies and central Plains. This is in response to forcing for ascent increasing with a broad area of enhanced mid-level flow rounding the western US trough. Largely, thunderstorms will be disorganized and sub-severe, owing to poor moisture and weak shear profiles. ...Central Plains... Large scale ascent will lead to potential for initial isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the central Plains Wednesday afternoon. This will remain sub-severe given marginal moisture profiles and presence of a strong EML. As west to southwesterly mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur Wednesday evening. This will result in mass response with an increase in the southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains by late evening into the early morning Thursday. Return of more appreciable moisture will spread into portions of eastern Kansas. Convective potential will be tempered by a strong EML and better forcing remaining to the north of this region. However, should elevated thunderstorm development occur, some conditional risk for large hail would be possible. Given uncertainty in convective initiation, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A broad area of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the West into the northern Rockies and central Plains. This is in response to forcing for ascent increasing with a broad area of enhanced mid-level flow rounding the western US trough. Largely, thunderstorms will be disorganized and sub-severe, owing to poor moisture and weak shear profiles. ...Central Plains... Large scale ascent will lead to potential for initial isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the central Plains Wednesday afternoon. This will remain sub-severe given marginal moisture profiles and presence of a strong EML. As west to southwesterly mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur Wednesday evening. This will result in mass response with an increase in the southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains by late evening into the early morning Thursday. Return of more appreciable moisture will spread into portions of eastern Kansas. Convective potential will be tempered by a strong EML and better forcing remaining to the north of this region. However, should elevated thunderstorm development occur, some conditional risk for large hail would be possible. Given uncertainty in convective initiation, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A broad area of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the West into the northern Rockies and central Plains. This is in response to forcing for ascent increasing with a broad area of enhanced mid-level flow rounding the western US trough. Largely, thunderstorms will be disorganized and sub-severe, owing to poor moisture and weak shear profiles. ...Central Plains... Large scale ascent will lead to potential for initial isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the central Plains Wednesday afternoon. This will remain sub-severe given marginal moisture profiles and presence of a strong EML. As west to southwesterly mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur Wednesday evening. This will result in mass response with an increase in the southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains by late evening into the early morning Thursday. Return of more appreciable moisture will spread into portions of eastern Kansas. Convective potential will be tempered by a strong EML and better forcing remaining to the north of this region. However, should elevated thunderstorm development occur, some conditional risk for large hail would be possible. Given uncertainty in convective initiation, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A broad area of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the West into the northern Rockies and central Plains. This is in response to forcing for ascent increasing with a broad area of enhanced mid-level flow rounding the western US trough. Largely, thunderstorms will be disorganized and sub-severe, owing to poor moisture and weak shear profiles. ...Central Plains... Large scale ascent will lead to potential for initial isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the central Plains Wednesday afternoon. This will remain sub-severe given marginal moisture profiles and presence of a strong EML. As west to southwesterly mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur Wednesday evening. This will result in mass response with an increase in the southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains by late evening into the early morning Thursday. Return of more appreciable moisture will spread into portions of eastern Kansas. Convective potential will be tempered by a strong EML and better forcing remaining to the north of this region. However, should elevated thunderstorm development occur, some conditional risk for large hail would be possible. Given uncertainty in convective initiation, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A broad area of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the West into the northern Rockies and central Plains. This is in response to forcing for ascent increasing with a broad area of enhanced mid-level flow rounding the western US trough. Largely, thunderstorms will be disorganized and sub-severe, owing to poor moisture and weak shear profiles. ...Central Plains... Large scale ascent will lead to potential for initial isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the central Plains Wednesday afternoon. This will remain sub-severe given marginal moisture profiles and presence of a strong EML. As west to southwesterly mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur Wednesday evening. This will result in mass response with an increase in the southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains by late evening into the early morning Thursday. Return of more appreciable moisture will spread into portions of eastern Kansas. Convective potential will be tempered by a strong EML and better forcing remaining to the north of this region. However, should elevated thunderstorm development occur, some conditional risk for large hail would be possible. Given uncertainty in convective initiation, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A broad area of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the West into the northern Rockies and central Plains. This is in response to forcing for ascent increasing with a broad area of enhanced mid-level flow rounding the western US trough. Largely, thunderstorms will be disorganized and sub-severe, owing to poor moisture and weak shear profiles. ...Central Plains... Large scale ascent will lead to potential for initial isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the central Plains Wednesday afternoon. This will remain sub-severe given marginal moisture profiles and presence of a strong EML. As west to southwesterly mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur Wednesday evening. This will result in mass response with an increase in the southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains by late evening into the early morning Thursday. Return of more appreciable moisture will spread into portions of eastern Kansas. Convective potential will be tempered by a strong EML and better forcing remaining to the north of this region. However, should elevated thunderstorm development occur, some conditional risk for large hail would be possible. Given uncertainty in convective initiation, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A broad area of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the West into the northern Rockies and central Plains. This is in response to forcing for ascent increasing with a broad area of enhanced mid-level flow rounding the western US trough. Largely, thunderstorms will be disorganized and sub-severe, owing to poor moisture and weak shear profiles. ...Central Plains... Large scale ascent will lead to potential for initial isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the central Plains Wednesday afternoon. This will remain sub-severe given marginal moisture profiles and presence of a strong EML. As west to southwesterly mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur Wednesday evening. This will result in mass response with an increase in the southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains by late evening into the early morning Thursday. Return of more appreciable moisture will spread into portions of eastern Kansas. Convective potential will be tempered by a strong EML and better forcing remaining to the north of this region. However, should elevated thunderstorm development occur, some conditional risk for large hail would be possible. Given uncertainty in convective initiation, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A broad area of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the West into the northern Rockies and central Plains. This is in response to forcing for ascent increasing with a broad area of enhanced mid-level flow rounding the western US trough. Largely, thunderstorms will be disorganized and sub-severe, owing to poor moisture and weak shear profiles. ...Central Plains... Large scale ascent will lead to potential for initial isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the central Plains Wednesday afternoon. This will remain sub-severe given marginal moisture profiles and presence of a strong EML. As west to southwesterly mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur Wednesday evening. This will result in mass response with an increase in the southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains by late evening into the early morning Thursday. Return of more appreciable moisture will spread into portions of eastern Kansas. Convective potential will be tempered by a strong EML and better forcing remaining to the north of this region. However, should elevated thunderstorm development occur, some conditional risk for large hail would be possible. Given uncertainty in convective initiation, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A broad area of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the West into the northern Rockies and central Plains. This is in response to forcing for ascent increasing with a broad area of enhanced mid-level flow rounding the western US trough. Largely, thunderstorms will be disorganized and sub-severe, owing to poor moisture and weak shear profiles. ...Central Plains... Large scale ascent will lead to potential for initial isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the central Plains Wednesday afternoon. This will remain sub-severe given marginal moisture profiles and presence of a strong EML. As west to southwesterly mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur Wednesday evening. This will result in mass response with an increase in the southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains by late evening into the early morning Thursday. Return of more appreciable moisture will spread into portions of eastern Kansas. Convective potential will be tempered by a strong EML and better forcing remaining to the north of this region. However, should elevated thunderstorm development occur, some conditional risk for large hail would be possible. Given uncertainty in convective initiation, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A broad area of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the West into the northern Rockies and central Plains. This is in response to forcing for ascent increasing with a broad area of enhanced mid-level flow rounding the western US trough. Largely, thunderstorms will be disorganized and sub-severe, owing to poor moisture and weak shear profiles. ...Central Plains... Large scale ascent will lead to potential for initial isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the central Plains Wednesday afternoon. This will remain sub-severe given marginal moisture profiles and presence of a strong EML. As west to southwesterly mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur Wednesday evening. This will result in mass response with an increase in the southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains by late evening into the early morning Thursday. Return of more appreciable moisture will spread into portions of eastern Kansas. Convective potential will be tempered by a strong EML and better forcing remaining to the north of this region. However, should elevated thunderstorm development occur, some conditional risk for large hail would be possible. Given uncertainty in convective initiation, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A broad area of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the West into the northern Rockies and central Plains. This is in response to forcing for ascent increasing with a broad area of enhanced mid-level flow rounding the western US trough. Largely, thunderstorms will be disorganized and sub-severe, owing to poor moisture and weak shear profiles. ...Central Plains... Large scale ascent will lead to potential for initial isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the central Plains Wednesday afternoon. This will remain sub-severe given marginal moisture profiles and presence of a strong EML. As west to southwesterly mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur Wednesday evening. This will result in mass response with an increase in the southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains by late evening into the early morning Thursday. Return of more appreciable moisture will spread into portions of eastern Kansas. Convective potential will be tempered by a strong EML and better forcing remaining to the north of this region. However, should elevated thunderstorm development occur, some conditional risk for large hail would be possible. Given uncertainty in convective initiation, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A broad area of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the West into the northern Rockies and central Plains. This is in response to forcing for ascent increasing with a broad area of enhanced mid-level flow rounding the western US trough. Largely, thunderstorms will be disorganized and sub-severe, owing to poor moisture and weak shear profiles. ...Central Plains... Large scale ascent will lead to potential for initial isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the central Plains Wednesday afternoon. This will remain sub-severe given marginal moisture profiles and presence of a strong EML. As west to southwesterly mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur Wednesday evening. This will result in mass response with an increase in the southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains by late evening into the early morning Thursday. Return of more appreciable moisture will spread into portions of eastern Kansas. Convective potential will be tempered by a strong EML and better forcing remaining to the north of this region. However, should elevated thunderstorm development occur, some conditional risk for large hail would be possible. Given uncertainty in convective initiation, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A broad area of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the West into the northern Rockies and central Plains. This is in response to forcing for ascent increasing with a broad area of enhanced mid-level flow rounding the western US trough. Largely, thunderstorms will be disorganized and sub-severe, owing to poor moisture and weak shear profiles. ...Central Plains... Large scale ascent will lead to potential for initial isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the central Plains Wednesday afternoon. This will remain sub-severe given marginal moisture profiles and presence of a strong EML. As west to southwesterly mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur Wednesday evening. This will result in mass response with an increase in the southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains by late evening into the early morning Thursday. Return of more appreciable moisture will spread into portions of eastern Kansas. Convective potential will be tempered by a strong EML and better forcing remaining to the north of this region. However, should elevated thunderstorm development occur, some conditional risk for large hail would be possible. Given uncertainty in convective initiation, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A broad area of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the West into the northern Rockies and central Plains. This is in response to forcing for ascent increasing with a broad area of enhanced mid-level flow rounding the western US trough. Largely, thunderstorms will be disorganized and sub-severe, owing to poor moisture and weak shear profiles. ...Central Plains... Large scale ascent will lead to potential for initial isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the central Plains Wednesday afternoon. This will remain sub-severe given marginal moisture profiles and presence of a strong EML. As west to southwesterly mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur Wednesday evening. This will result in mass response with an increase in the southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains by late evening into the early morning Thursday. Return of more appreciable moisture will spread into portions of eastern Kansas. Convective potential will be tempered by a strong EML and better forcing remaining to the north of this region. However, should elevated thunderstorm development occur, some conditional risk for large hail would be possible. Given uncertainty in convective initiation, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A broad area of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the West into the northern Rockies and central Plains. This is in response to forcing for ascent increasing with a broad area of enhanced mid-level flow rounding the western US trough. Largely, thunderstorms will be disorganized and sub-severe, owing to poor moisture and weak shear profiles. ...Central Plains... Large scale ascent will lead to potential for initial isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the central Plains Wednesday afternoon. This will remain sub-severe given marginal moisture profiles and presence of a strong EML. As west to southwesterly mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur Wednesday evening. This will result in mass response with an increase in the southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains by late evening into the early morning Thursday. Return of more appreciable moisture will spread into portions of eastern Kansas. Convective potential will be tempered by a strong EML and better forcing remaining to the north of this region. However, should elevated thunderstorm development occur, some conditional risk for large hail would be possible. Given uncertainty in convective initiation, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Northeast... A post-frontal regime will be in place across the Northeast Tuesday. Flow aloft will remain modest with mid-level cooling through the day. This will support potential for redevelopment of scattered thunderstorm activity by the afternoon. Given post-frontal drying conditions and weak buoyancy, this should yield primarily sub-severe low-topped convection, though occasional gusty winds will be possible. ...Southwest... A mid-level low will approach the West Coast, with a belt of mid-level flow overspreading southern California into southern Nevada. Ahead of this feature, a weak shortwave trough will move across the Lower Colorado Valley towards the southern Rockies. Enough mid-level moisture in place with large-scale ascent will allow for isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity across the northern Sierra and across the Four Corners region. As shear profiles will be weak, storms are not expected to be severe. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025 Read more