Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon through early tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon into VA early tonight... An initial shortwave trough and surface cyclone will occlude by tonight between Lake Superior and James Bay, as an upstream shortwave trough digs southeastward from the northern Plains toward the OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will move southeastward across the OH Valley today, while a corridor of moisture return occurs ahead of the front from the Mid-South to WV. Surface heating in cloud breaks will drive temperatures into the 70s by early-mid afternoon, coincident with northeastward advection of 55-60 F boundary-layer dewpoints beneath the northeastward extent of an elevated mixed layer. Though the upstream moisture source is rather modest by mid April standards, recent green up and unusually moist ground across the OH Valley will augment evapotranspiration. These processes will result in MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition as low-level ascent focuses along the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by mid afternoon in a broken band along the cold front from northern KY into southern OH, and storms subsequently expand in coverage while spreading east-southeastward across WV into VA through early tonight. The moderate buoyancy and long hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter, and damaging winds of 60-75 mph are also expected, especially with any upscale growth into bowing segments. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for some tornado threat, though this will be modulated by the degree of low-level moistening. Clusters/line segments will persist east of the Appalachians into VA through early tonight, though the severe threat will diminish with eastward extent and after 03z. ...SD to IA this afternoon/evening... Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating beneath cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy and the potential for low-topped thunderstorms from SD into IA (in advance of the digging shortwave trough now over western ND/eastern MT). Relatively cold temperature profiles will favor some threat for small hail, while steep low-level lapse rates and 30+ kt flow through the mixed layer favor gusty outflow winds of 40-50 mph. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon through early tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon into VA early tonight... An initial shortwave trough and surface cyclone will occlude by tonight between Lake Superior and James Bay, as an upstream shortwave trough digs southeastward from the northern Plains toward the OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will move southeastward across the OH Valley today, while a corridor of moisture return occurs ahead of the front from the Mid-South to WV. Surface heating in cloud breaks will drive temperatures into the 70s by early-mid afternoon, coincident with northeastward advection of 55-60 F boundary-layer dewpoints beneath the northeastward extent of an elevated mixed layer. Though the upstream moisture source is rather modest by mid April standards, recent green up and unusually moist ground across the OH Valley will augment evapotranspiration. These processes will result in MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition as low-level ascent focuses along the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by mid afternoon in a broken band along the cold front from northern KY into southern OH, and storms subsequently expand in coverage while spreading east-southeastward across WV into VA through early tonight. The moderate buoyancy and long hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter, and damaging winds of 60-75 mph are also expected, especially with any upscale growth into bowing segments. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for some tornado threat, though this will be modulated by the degree of low-level moistening. Clusters/line segments will persist east of the Appalachians into VA through early tonight, though the severe threat will diminish with eastward extent and after 03z. ...SD to IA this afternoon/evening... Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating beneath cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy and the potential for low-topped thunderstorms from SD into IA (in advance of the digging shortwave trough now over western ND/eastern MT). Relatively cold temperature profiles will favor some threat for small hail, while steep low-level lapse rates and 30+ kt flow through the mixed layer favor gusty outflow winds of 40-50 mph. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon through early tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon into VA early tonight... An initial shortwave trough and surface cyclone will occlude by tonight between Lake Superior and James Bay, as an upstream shortwave trough digs southeastward from the northern Plains toward the OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will move southeastward across the OH Valley today, while a corridor of moisture return occurs ahead of the front from the Mid-South to WV. Surface heating in cloud breaks will drive temperatures into the 70s by early-mid afternoon, coincident with northeastward advection of 55-60 F boundary-layer dewpoints beneath the northeastward extent of an elevated mixed layer. Though the upstream moisture source is rather modest by mid April standards, recent green up and unusually moist ground across the OH Valley will augment evapotranspiration. These processes will result in MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition as low-level ascent focuses along the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by mid afternoon in a broken band along the cold front from northern KY into southern OH, and storms subsequently expand in coverage while spreading east-southeastward across WV into VA through early tonight. The moderate buoyancy and long hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter, and damaging winds of 60-75 mph are also expected, especially with any upscale growth into bowing segments. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for some tornado threat, though this will be modulated by the degree of low-level moistening. Clusters/line segments will persist east of the Appalachians into VA through early tonight, though the severe threat will diminish with eastward extent and after 03z. ...SD to IA this afternoon/evening... Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating beneath cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy and the potential for low-topped thunderstorms from SD into IA (in advance of the digging shortwave trough now over western ND/eastern MT). Relatively cold temperature profiles will favor some threat for small hail, while steep low-level lapse rates and 30+ kt flow through the mixed layer favor gusty outflow winds of 40-50 mph. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon through early tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon into VA early tonight... An initial shortwave trough and surface cyclone will occlude by tonight between Lake Superior and James Bay, as an upstream shortwave trough digs southeastward from the northern Plains toward the OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will move southeastward across the OH Valley today, while a corridor of moisture return occurs ahead of the front from the Mid-South to WV. Surface heating in cloud breaks will drive temperatures into the 70s by early-mid afternoon, coincident with northeastward advection of 55-60 F boundary-layer dewpoints beneath the northeastward extent of an elevated mixed layer. Though the upstream moisture source is rather modest by mid April standards, recent green up and unusually moist ground across the OH Valley will augment evapotranspiration. These processes will result in MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition as low-level ascent focuses along the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by mid afternoon in a broken band along the cold front from northern KY into southern OH, and storms subsequently expand in coverage while spreading east-southeastward across WV into VA through early tonight. The moderate buoyancy and long hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter, and damaging winds of 60-75 mph are also expected, especially with any upscale growth into bowing segments. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for some tornado threat, though this will be modulated by the degree of low-level moistening. Clusters/line segments will persist east of the Appalachians into VA through early tonight, though the severe threat will diminish with eastward extent and after 03z. ...SD to IA this afternoon/evening... Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating beneath cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy and the potential for low-topped thunderstorms from SD into IA (in advance of the digging shortwave trough now over western ND/eastern MT). Relatively cold temperature profiles will favor some threat for small hail, while steep low-level lapse rates and 30+ kt flow through the mixed layer favor gusty outflow winds of 40-50 mph. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/14/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active severe weather pattern expected late week into the weekend. ...D4/Thursday... A longwave trough should become clearly anchored over the West and consist of multiple embedded shortwave impulses. Peak surface cyclone amplitude is largely progged over western KS on Thursday afternoon, with a dryline arcing across eastern KS into the southern Great Plains. Another day of modifying moisture return northward from the western Gulf should yield at least moderate buoyancy ahead of the dryline. A strengthening low-level jet should support thunderstorm development across the Lower MO to Mid-MS Valleys on Thursday evening. Supercell wind profiles support potentially scattered severe storms. ...D5/Friday... A broad swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies appears likely to become established from the southern High Plains to the Great Lakes, downstream of a longwave trough from James Bay to the Lower CO Valley. While the deep cyclone over the KS vicinity will weaken, it should move towards the central Great Lakes. From along/ahead of its track to the trailing cold front arcing southwestward into west TX, extensive thunderstorm development is anticipated Friday afternoon/evening. Given the strong mid-level flow regime, scattered severe storms are possible across an elongated corridor. ...D6-7/Saturday-Sunday... Predictability for a 15 percent highlight remains too low during the weekend, but areas will probably be needed in later outlooks. Guidance has trended neutral to slightly weaker/more confined potential on Saturday. Overall signal persists of bimodal primary threat areas across the Lower Mid-Atlantic States and southern High/Great Plains. For the former, the degree of instability and position of a southeast-moving cold front on the periphery of stronger zonal mid-level flow remain key uncertainty factors. For the latter, timing of the pivot and eastward ejection of the compact Lower CO Valley shortwave impulse across the Southwest/southern Rockies remains crucial. Guidance has shown poor run-to-run continuity for Sunday, yielding low confidence on spatial details of the severe threat. Across both regimes and days, NSSL GEFS ML sub-15 percent probabilities appear quite reasonable. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active severe weather pattern expected late week into the weekend. ...D4/Thursday... A longwave trough should become clearly anchored over the West and consist of multiple embedded shortwave impulses. Peak surface cyclone amplitude is largely progged over western KS on Thursday afternoon, with a dryline arcing across eastern KS into the southern Great Plains. Another day of modifying moisture return northward from the western Gulf should yield at least moderate buoyancy ahead of the dryline. A strengthening low-level jet should support thunderstorm development across the Lower MO to Mid-MS Valleys on Thursday evening. Supercell wind profiles support potentially scattered severe storms. ...D5/Friday... A broad swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies appears likely to become established from the southern High Plains to the Great Lakes, downstream of a longwave trough from James Bay to the Lower CO Valley. While the deep cyclone over the KS vicinity will weaken, it should move towards the central Great Lakes. From along/ahead of its track to the trailing cold front arcing southwestward into west TX, extensive thunderstorm development is anticipated Friday afternoon/evening. Given the strong mid-level flow regime, scattered severe storms are possible across an elongated corridor. ...D6-7/Saturday-Sunday... Predictability for a 15 percent highlight remains too low during the weekend, but areas will probably be needed in later outlooks. Guidance has trended neutral to slightly weaker/more confined potential on Saturday. Overall signal persists of bimodal primary threat areas across the Lower Mid-Atlantic States and southern High/Great Plains. For the former, the degree of instability and position of a southeast-moving cold front on the periphery of stronger zonal mid-level flow remain key uncertainty factors. For the latter, timing of the pivot and eastward ejection of the compact Lower CO Valley shortwave impulse across the Southwest/southern Rockies remains crucial. Guidance has shown poor run-to-run continuity for Sunday, yielding low confidence on spatial details of the severe threat. Across both regimes and days, NSSL GEFS ML sub-15 percent probabilities appear quite reasonable. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active severe weather pattern expected late week into the weekend. ...D4/Thursday... A longwave trough should become clearly anchored over the West and consist of multiple embedded shortwave impulses. Peak surface cyclone amplitude is largely progged over western KS on Thursday afternoon, with a dryline arcing across eastern KS into the southern Great Plains. Another day of modifying moisture return northward from the western Gulf should yield at least moderate buoyancy ahead of the dryline. A strengthening low-level jet should support thunderstorm development across the Lower MO to Mid-MS Valleys on Thursday evening. Supercell wind profiles support potentially scattered severe storms. ...D5/Friday... A broad swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies appears likely to become established from the southern High Plains to the Great Lakes, downstream of a longwave trough from James Bay to the Lower CO Valley. While the deep cyclone over the KS vicinity will weaken, it should move towards the central Great Lakes. From along/ahead of its track to the trailing cold front arcing southwestward into west TX, extensive thunderstorm development is anticipated Friday afternoon/evening. Given the strong mid-level flow regime, scattered severe storms are possible across an elongated corridor. ...D6-7/Saturday-Sunday... Predictability for a 15 percent highlight remains too low during the weekend, but areas will probably be needed in later outlooks. Guidance has trended neutral to slightly weaker/more confined potential on Saturday. Overall signal persists of bimodal primary threat areas across the Lower Mid-Atlantic States and southern High/Great Plains. For the former, the degree of instability and position of a southeast-moving cold front on the periphery of stronger zonal mid-level flow remain key uncertainty factors. For the latter, timing of the pivot and eastward ejection of the compact Lower CO Valley shortwave impulse across the Southwest/southern Rockies remains crucial. Guidance has shown poor run-to-run continuity for Sunday, yielding low confidence on spatial details of the severe threat. Across both regimes and days, NSSL GEFS ML sub-15 percent probabilities appear quite reasonable. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active severe weather pattern expected late week into the weekend. ...D4/Thursday... A longwave trough should become clearly anchored over the West and consist of multiple embedded shortwave impulses. Peak surface cyclone amplitude is largely progged over western KS on Thursday afternoon, with a dryline arcing across eastern KS into the southern Great Plains. Another day of modifying moisture return northward from the western Gulf should yield at least moderate buoyancy ahead of the dryline. A strengthening low-level jet should support thunderstorm development across the Lower MO to Mid-MS Valleys on Thursday evening. Supercell wind profiles support potentially scattered severe storms. ...D5/Friday... A broad swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies appears likely to become established from the southern High Plains to the Great Lakes, downstream of a longwave trough from James Bay to the Lower CO Valley. While the deep cyclone over the KS vicinity will weaken, it should move towards the central Great Lakes. From along/ahead of its track to the trailing cold front arcing southwestward into west TX, extensive thunderstorm development is anticipated Friday afternoon/evening. Given the strong mid-level flow regime, scattered severe storms are possible across an elongated corridor. ...D6-7/Saturday-Sunday... Predictability for a 15 percent highlight remains too low during the weekend, but areas will probably be needed in later outlooks. Guidance has trended neutral to slightly weaker/more confined potential on Saturday. Overall signal persists of bimodal primary threat areas across the Lower Mid-Atlantic States and southern High/Great Plains. For the former, the degree of instability and position of a southeast-moving cold front on the periphery of stronger zonal mid-level flow remain key uncertainty factors. For the latter, timing of the pivot and eastward ejection of the compact Lower CO Valley shortwave impulse across the Southwest/southern Rockies remains crucial. Guidance has shown poor run-to-run continuity for Sunday, yielding low confidence on spatial details of the severe threat. Across both regimes and days, NSSL GEFS ML sub-15 percent probabilities appear quite reasonable. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active severe weather pattern expected late week into the weekend. ...D4/Thursday... A longwave trough should become clearly anchored over the West and consist of multiple embedded shortwave impulses. Peak surface cyclone amplitude is largely progged over western KS on Thursday afternoon, with a dryline arcing across eastern KS into the southern Great Plains. Another day of modifying moisture return northward from the western Gulf should yield at least moderate buoyancy ahead of the dryline. A strengthening low-level jet should support thunderstorm development across the Lower MO to Mid-MS Valleys on Thursday evening. Supercell wind profiles support potentially scattered severe storms. ...D5/Friday... A broad swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies appears likely to become established from the southern High Plains to the Great Lakes, downstream of a longwave trough from James Bay to the Lower CO Valley. While the deep cyclone over the KS vicinity will weaken, it should move towards the central Great Lakes. From along/ahead of its track to the trailing cold front arcing southwestward into west TX, extensive thunderstorm development is anticipated Friday afternoon/evening. Given the strong mid-level flow regime, scattered severe storms are possible across an elongated corridor. ...D6-7/Saturday-Sunday... Predictability for a 15 percent highlight remains too low during the weekend, but areas will probably be needed in later outlooks. Guidance has trended neutral to slightly weaker/more confined potential on Saturday. Overall signal persists of bimodal primary threat areas across the Lower Mid-Atlantic States and southern High/Great Plains. For the former, the degree of instability and position of a southeast-moving cold front on the periphery of stronger zonal mid-level flow remain key uncertainty factors. For the latter, timing of the pivot and eastward ejection of the compact Lower CO Valley shortwave impulse across the Southwest/southern Rockies remains crucial. Guidance has shown poor run-to-run continuity for Sunday, yielding low confidence on spatial details of the severe threat. Across both regimes and days, NSSL GEFS ML sub-15 percent probabilities appear quite reasonable. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active severe weather pattern expected late week into the weekend. ...D4/Thursday... A longwave trough should become clearly anchored over the West and consist of multiple embedded shortwave impulses. Peak surface cyclone amplitude is largely progged over western KS on Thursday afternoon, with a dryline arcing across eastern KS into the southern Great Plains. Another day of modifying moisture return northward from the western Gulf should yield at least moderate buoyancy ahead of the dryline. A strengthening low-level jet should support thunderstorm development across the Lower MO to Mid-MS Valleys on Thursday evening. Supercell wind profiles support potentially scattered severe storms. ...D5/Friday... A broad swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies appears likely to become established from the southern High Plains to the Great Lakes, downstream of a longwave trough from James Bay to the Lower CO Valley. While the deep cyclone over the KS vicinity will weaken, it should move towards the central Great Lakes. From along/ahead of its track to the trailing cold front arcing southwestward into west TX, extensive thunderstorm development is anticipated Friday afternoon/evening. Given the strong mid-level flow regime, scattered severe storms are possible across an elongated corridor. ...D6-7/Saturday-Sunday... Predictability for a 15 percent highlight remains too low during the weekend, but areas will probably be needed in later outlooks. Guidance has trended neutral to slightly weaker/more confined potential on Saturday. Overall signal persists of bimodal primary threat areas across the Lower Mid-Atlantic States and southern High/Great Plains. For the former, the degree of instability and position of a southeast-moving cold front on the periphery of stronger zonal mid-level flow remain key uncertainty factors. For the latter, timing of the pivot and eastward ejection of the compact Lower CO Valley shortwave impulse across the Southwest/southern Rockies remains crucial. Guidance has shown poor run-to-run continuity for Sunday, yielding low confidence on spatial details of the severe threat. Across both regimes and days, NSSL GEFS ML sub-15 percent probabilities appear quite reasonable. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active severe weather pattern expected late week into the weekend. ...D4/Thursday... A longwave trough should become clearly anchored over the West and consist of multiple embedded shortwave impulses. Peak surface cyclone amplitude is largely progged over western KS on Thursday afternoon, with a dryline arcing across eastern KS into the southern Great Plains. Another day of modifying moisture return northward from the western Gulf should yield at least moderate buoyancy ahead of the dryline. A strengthening low-level jet should support thunderstorm development across the Lower MO to Mid-MS Valleys on Thursday evening. Supercell wind profiles support potentially scattered severe storms. ...D5/Friday... A broad swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies appears likely to become established from the southern High Plains to the Great Lakes, downstream of a longwave trough from James Bay to the Lower CO Valley. While the deep cyclone over the KS vicinity will weaken, it should move towards the central Great Lakes. From along/ahead of its track to the trailing cold front arcing southwestward into west TX, extensive thunderstorm development is anticipated Friday afternoon/evening. Given the strong mid-level flow regime, scattered severe storms are possible across an elongated corridor. ...D6-7/Saturday-Sunday... Predictability for a 15 percent highlight remains too low during the weekend, but areas will probably be needed in later outlooks. Guidance has trended neutral to slightly weaker/more confined potential on Saturday. Overall signal persists of bimodal primary threat areas across the Lower Mid-Atlantic States and southern High/Great Plains. For the former, the degree of instability and position of a southeast-moving cold front on the periphery of stronger zonal mid-level flow remain key uncertainty factors. For the latter, timing of the pivot and eastward ejection of the compact Lower CO Valley shortwave impulse across the Southwest/southern Rockies remains crucial. Guidance has shown poor run-to-run continuity for Sunday, yielding low confidence on spatial details of the severe threat. Across both regimes and days, NSSL GEFS ML sub-15 percent probabilities appear quite reasonable. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...West to Central States... A broad swath of predominately isolated thunder is anticipated starting Wednesday afternoon and persisting into early morning Thursday. A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to dig southward from the Canadian Rockies into the northern Intermountain West. A southern-stream, lower-amplitude shortwave trough should drift towards the southern CA coast. Downstream lee cyclogenesis should occur over the central High Plains by Wednesday night, with modified moisture return from the western Gulf Coast northward. In the West, buoyancy will be scant outside of CA. But the strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of/within the developing longwave trough should support isolated thunderstorms, peaking in the late afternoon. Across the central Great Plains vicinity, surface-based storm development appears unlikely given the initially low-quality moisture return beneath a stout EML. A corridor of elevated thunder may be realized by Wednesday night, as a low-level jet strengthens from west TX to KS. Guidance does differ on amplitude of this strengthening, and has fairly large spread in if/where elevated convection is sustained early morning Thursday. ..Grams.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...West to Central States... A broad swath of predominately isolated thunder is anticipated starting Wednesday afternoon and persisting into early morning Thursday. A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to dig southward from the Canadian Rockies into the northern Intermountain West. A southern-stream, lower-amplitude shortwave trough should drift towards the southern CA coast. Downstream lee cyclogenesis should occur over the central High Plains by Wednesday night, with modified moisture return from the western Gulf Coast northward. In the West, buoyancy will be scant outside of CA. But the strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of/within the developing longwave trough should support isolated thunderstorms, peaking in the late afternoon. Across the central Great Plains vicinity, surface-based storm development appears unlikely given the initially low-quality moisture return beneath a stout EML. A corridor of elevated thunder may be realized by Wednesday night, as a low-level jet strengthens from west TX to KS. Guidance does differ on amplitude of this strengthening, and has fairly large spread in if/where elevated convection is sustained early morning Thursday. ..Grams.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...West to Central States... A broad swath of predominately isolated thunder is anticipated starting Wednesday afternoon and persisting into early morning Thursday. A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to dig southward from the Canadian Rockies into the northern Intermountain West. A southern-stream, lower-amplitude shortwave trough should drift towards the southern CA coast. Downstream lee cyclogenesis should occur over the central High Plains by Wednesday night, with modified moisture return from the western Gulf Coast northward. In the West, buoyancy will be scant outside of CA. But the strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of/within the developing longwave trough should support isolated thunderstorms, peaking in the late afternoon. Across the central Great Plains vicinity, surface-based storm development appears unlikely given the initially low-quality moisture return beneath a stout EML. A corridor of elevated thunder may be realized by Wednesday night, as a low-level jet strengthens from west TX to KS. Guidance does differ on amplitude of this strengthening, and has fairly large spread in if/where elevated convection is sustained early morning Thursday. ..Grams.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...West to Central States... A broad swath of predominately isolated thunder is anticipated starting Wednesday afternoon and persisting into early morning Thursday. A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to dig southward from the Canadian Rockies into the northern Intermountain West. A southern-stream, lower-amplitude shortwave trough should drift towards the southern CA coast. Downstream lee cyclogenesis should occur over the central High Plains by Wednesday night, with modified moisture return from the western Gulf Coast northward. In the West, buoyancy will be scant outside of CA. But the strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of/within the developing longwave trough should support isolated thunderstorms, peaking in the late afternoon. Across the central Great Plains vicinity, surface-based storm development appears unlikely given the initially low-quality moisture return beneath a stout EML. A corridor of elevated thunder may be realized by Wednesday night, as a low-level jet strengthens from west TX to KS. Guidance does differ on amplitude of this strengthening, and has fairly large spread in if/where elevated convection is sustained early morning Thursday. ..Grams.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...West to Central States... A broad swath of predominately isolated thunder is anticipated starting Wednesday afternoon and persisting into early morning Thursday. A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to dig southward from the Canadian Rockies into the northern Intermountain West. A southern-stream, lower-amplitude shortwave trough should drift towards the southern CA coast. Downstream lee cyclogenesis should occur over the central High Plains by Wednesday night, with modified moisture return from the western Gulf Coast northward. In the West, buoyancy will be scant outside of CA. But the strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of/within the developing longwave trough should support isolated thunderstorms, peaking in the late afternoon. Across the central Great Plains vicinity, surface-based storm development appears unlikely given the initially low-quality moisture return beneath a stout EML. A corridor of elevated thunder may be realized by Wednesday night, as a low-level jet strengthens from west TX to KS. Guidance does differ on amplitude of this strengthening, and has fairly large spread in if/where elevated convection is sustained early morning Thursday. ..Grams.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...West to Central States... A broad swath of predominately isolated thunder is anticipated starting Wednesday afternoon and persisting into early morning Thursday. A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to dig southward from the Canadian Rockies into the northern Intermountain West. A southern-stream, lower-amplitude shortwave trough should drift towards the southern CA coast. Downstream lee cyclogenesis should occur over the central High Plains by Wednesday night, with modified moisture return from the western Gulf Coast northward. In the West, buoyancy will be scant outside of CA. But the strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of/within the developing longwave trough should support isolated thunderstorms, peaking in the late afternoon. Across the central Great Plains vicinity, surface-based storm development appears unlikely given the initially low-quality moisture return beneath a stout EML. A corridor of elevated thunder may be realized by Wednesday night, as a low-level jet strengthens from west TX to KS. Guidance does differ on amplitude of this strengthening, and has fairly large spread in if/where elevated convection is sustained early morning Thursday. ..Grams.. 04/14/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A surface high will push into the southern Rockies on Tuesday. A weakening shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. Farther east, a strong upper trough will move through the East Coast through the day. A cold front will move offshore early afternoon with gusty northwest wind filling in behind it. ...Southwest... How far the cooler air pushes westward will determine the exact extent of fire weather risk in the vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border. Current guidance would suggest a primarily upslope regime into central Mexico with cooler temperatures and higher RH. West of this cooler air, the upper shortwave trough will be favorably timed during the afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire weather. Surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% will be possible. ...Piedmont/Blue Ridge... RH of 20-25% is possible in the wake of the cold front where modest downslope winds off of the Appalachians will occur. Winds will potentially reach 15-20 mph. Despite these conditions, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuel receptiveness. No highlights will be added at this time. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A surface high will push into the southern Rockies on Tuesday. A weakening shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. Farther east, a strong upper trough will move through the East Coast through the day. A cold front will move offshore early afternoon with gusty northwest wind filling in behind it. ...Southwest... How far the cooler air pushes westward will determine the exact extent of fire weather risk in the vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border. Current guidance would suggest a primarily upslope regime into central Mexico with cooler temperatures and higher RH. West of this cooler air, the upper shortwave trough will be favorably timed during the afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire weather. Surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% will be possible. ...Piedmont/Blue Ridge... RH of 20-25% is possible in the wake of the cold front where modest downslope winds off of the Appalachians will occur. Winds will potentially reach 15-20 mph. Despite these conditions, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuel receptiveness. No highlights will be added at this time. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A surface high will push into the southern Rockies on Tuesday. A weakening shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. Farther east, a strong upper trough will move through the East Coast through the day. A cold front will move offshore early afternoon with gusty northwest wind filling in behind it. ...Southwest... How far the cooler air pushes westward will determine the exact extent of fire weather risk in the vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border. Current guidance would suggest a primarily upslope regime into central Mexico with cooler temperatures and higher RH. West of this cooler air, the upper shortwave trough will be favorably timed during the afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire weather. Surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 15-20% will be possible. ...Piedmont/Blue Ridge... RH of 20-25% is possible in the wake of the cold front where modest downslope winds off of the Appalachians will occur. Winds will potentially reach 15-20 mph. Despite these conditions, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuel receptiveness. No highlights will be added at this time. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more