Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Eastern NC... Timing of surface cold front passage Tuesday late morning to afternoon remains crucial as to whether thunderstorms can form and intensify over land, before becoming entirely confined off the coast. Guidance, except for the UKMET, has generally been trending towards a slightly faster frontal passage over the past couple days. This suggests the window of opportunity for sustained severe development should be rather limited. Conditionally, strong wind profiles support potential for an organized storm or two around early afternoon. For now, have opted to defer on possible level 1-MRGL risk. ...Southwest... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse moving northeast from the Lower CO Valley, and a separate trough off the CA coast. Meager buoyancy and weak deep-layer shear will minimize severe potential. ..Grams.. 04/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Eastern NC... Timing of surface cold front passage Tuesday late morning to afternoon remains crucial as to whether thunderstorms can form and intensify over land, before becoming entirely confined off the coast. Guidance, except for the UKMET, has generally been trending towards a slightly faster frontal passage over the past couple days. This suggests the window of opportunity for sustained severe development should be rather limited. Conditionally, strong wind profiles support potential for an organized storm or two around early afternoon. For now, have opted to defer on possible level 1-MRGL risk. ...Southwest... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse moving northeast from the Lower CO Valley, and a separate trough off the CA coast. Meager buoyancy and weak deep-layer shear will minimize severe potential. ..Grams.. 04/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Eastern NC... Timing of surface cold front passage Tuesday late morning to afternoon remains crucial as to whether thunderstorms can form and intensify over land, before becoming entirely confined off the coast. Guidance, except for the UKMET, has generally been trending towards a slightly faster frontal passage over the past couple days. This suggests the window of opportunity for sustained severe development should be rather limited. Conditionally, strong wind profiles support potential for an organized storm or two around early afternoon. For now, have opted to defer on possible level 1-MRGL risk. ...Southwest... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse moving northeast from the Lower CO Valley, and a separate trough off the CA coast. Meager buoyancy and weak deep-layer shear will minimize severe potential. ..Grams.. 04/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Eastern NC... Timing of surface cold front passage Tuesday late morning to afternoon remains crucial as to whether thunderstorms can form and intensify over land, before becoming entirely confined off the coast. Guidance, except for the UKMET, has generally been trending towards a slightly faster frontal passage over the past couple days. This suggests the window of opportunity for sustained severe development should be rather limited. Conditionally, strong wind profiles support potential for an organized storm or two around early afternoon. For now, have opted to defer on possible level 1-MRGL risk. ...Southwest... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse moving northeast from the Lower CO Valley, and a separate trough off the CA coast. Meager buoyancy and weak deep-layer shear will minimize severe potential. ..Grams.. 04/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Eastern NC... Timing of surface cold front passage Tuesday late morning to afternoon remains crucial as to whether thunderstorms can form and intensify over land, before becoming entirely confined off the coast. Guidance, except for the UKMET, has generally been trending towards a slightly faster frontal passage over the past couple days. This suggests the window of opportunity for sustained severe development should be rather limited. Conditionally, strong wind profiles support potential for an organized storm or two around early afternoon. For now, have opted to defer on possible level 1-MRGL risk. ...Southwest... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse moving northeast from the Lower CO Valley, and a separate trough off the CA coast. Meager buoyancy and weak deep-layer shear will minimize severe potential. ..Grams.. 04/13/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... The Upper Midwest upper trough will broaden and intensify as it moves eastward into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Monday. A cold front will continue south and east, pushing into the northern Gulf. Strong post-frontal winds at the surface and aloft will continue on the western flank of the upper trough. ...Southwest South Dakota into central Kansas... Strong northwesterly winds will persist across much of the Plains during the morning and early afternoon. Winds just above the surface will also maintain some intensity into the afternoon, promoting stronger gusts as well. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph appear most probable. Winds will tend to gradually weaken mid/late afternoon as surface low moves farther east and the surface high weakens to the west. RH of 20-30% will occur, with the lowest values expected farther south and west. There has been some tendency for guidance to shift the area of elevated fire weather risk farther south/west. The elevated area has been shifted accordingly. Strong winds will still occur near the Missouri River, but RH is expected to be much higher. ..Wendt.. 04/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... The Upper Midwest upper trough will broaden and intensify as it moves eastward into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Monday. A cold front will continue south and east, pushing into the northern Gulf. Strong post-frontal winds at the surface and aloft will continue on the western flank of the upper trough. ...Southwest South Dakota into central Kansas... Strong northwesterly winds will persist across much of the Plains during the morning and early afternoon. Winds just above the surface will also maintain some intensity into the afternoon, promoting stronger gusts as well. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph appear most probable. Winds will tend to gradually weaken mid/late afternoon as surface low moves farther east and the surface high weakens to the west. RH of 20-30% will occur, with the lowest values expected farther south and west. There has been some tendency for guidance to shift the area of elevated fire weather risk farther south/west. The elevated area has been shifted accordingly. Strong winds will still occur near the Missouri River, but RH is expected to be much higher. ..Wendt.. 04/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... The Upper Midwest upper trough will broaden and intensify as it moves eastward into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Monday. A cold front will continue south and east, pushing into the northern Gulf. Strong post-frontal winds at the surface and aloft will continue on the western flank of the upper trough. ...Southwest South Dakota into central Kansas... Strong northwesterly winds will persist across much of the Plains during the morning and early afternoon. Winds just above the surface will also maintain some intensity into the afternoon, promoting stronger gusts as well. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph appear most probable. Winds will tend to gradually weaken mid/late afternoon as surface low moves farther east and the surface high weakens to the west. RH of 20-30% will occur, with the lowest values expected farther south and west. There has been some tendency for guidance to shift the area of elevated fire weather risk farther south/west. The elevated area has been shifted accordingly. Strong winds will still occur near the Missouri River, but RH is expected to be much higher. ..Wendt.. 04/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... The Upper Midwest upper trough will broaden and intensify as it moves eastward into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Monday. A cold front will continue south and east, pushing into the northern Gulf. Strong post-frontal winds at the surface and aloft will continue on the western flank of the upper trough. ...Southwest South Dakota into central Kansas... Strong northwesterly winds will persist across much of the Plains during the morning and early afternoon. Winds just above the surface will also maintain some intensity into the afternoon, promoting stronger gusts as well. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph appear most probable. Winds will tend to gradually weaken mid/late afternoon as surface low moves farther east and the surface high weakens to the west. RH of 20-30% will occur, with the lowest values expected farther south and west. There has been some tendency for guidance to shift the area of elevated fire weather risk farther south/west. The elevated area has been shifted accordingly. Strong winds will still occur near the Missouri River, but RH is expected to be much higher. ..Wendt.. 04/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A northern Plains upper trough will move into the Upper Midwest today. A surface trough/cold front will move south and east. Deepening surface lows are expected in the Upper Midwest as well as the southern High Plains. ...Southwest into Southern Plains... As the trough moves north of the area, some extension of moderate mid-level wind will be present across the southern Rockies. A lee surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle. These features will combine to promote surface winds around 20 mph over a broad area. RH could be very low in some places (5-10%), though 10-20% will be more common. Critical fire weather will occur for a several hours across parts of the Southwest into West Texas. ...South Dakota/Nebraska... Strong, gusty surface winds are expected behind the cold front. Winds of 15-25 mph appear possible. Cooling behind the front should lag in part due to a downslope component of the wind off the High Plains and mid-level drying allowing surface heating to occur. This should allow RH to fall to 15-25%. Drought impacted grasses will promote an elevated risk of fire ignition/spread. ..Wendt.. 04/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A northern Plains upper trough will move into the Upper Midwest today. A surface trough/cold front will move south and east. Deepening surface lows are expected in the Upper Midwest as well as the southern High Plains. ...Southwest into Southern Plains... As the trough moves north of the area, some extension of moderate mid-level wind will be present across the southern Rockies. A lee surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle. These features will combine to promote surface winds around 20 mph over a broad area. RH could be very low in some places (5-10%), though 10-20% will be more common. Critical fire weather will occur for a several hours across parts of the Southwest into West Texas. ...South Dakota/Nebraska... Strong, gusty surface winds are expected behind the cold front. Winds of 15-25 mph appear possible. Cooling behind the front should lag in part due to a downslope component of the wind off the High Plains and mid-level drying allowing surface heating to occur. This should allow RH to fall to 15-25%. Drought impacted grasses will promote an elevated risk of fire ignition/spread. ..Wendt.. 04/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A northern Plains upper trough will move into the Upper Midwest today. A surface trough/cold front will move south and east. Deepening surface lows are expected in the Upper Midwest as well as the southern High Plains. ...Southwest into Southern Plains... As the trough moves north of the area, some extension of moderate mid-level wind will be present across the southern Rockies. A lee surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle. These features will combine to promote surface winds around 20 mph over a broad area. RH could be very low in some places (5-10%), though 10-20% will be more common. Critical fire weather will occur for a several hours across parts of the Southwest into West Texas. ...South Dakota/Nebraska... Strong, gusty surface winds are expected behind the cold front. Winds of 15-25 mph appear possible. Cooling behind the front should lag in part due to a downslope component of the wind off the High Plains and mid-level drying allowing surface heating to occur. This should allow RH to fall to 15-25%. Drought impacted grasses will promote an elevated risk of fire ignition/spread. ..Wendt.. 04/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A northern Plains upper trough will move into the Upper Midwest today. A surface trough/cold front will move south and east. Deepening surface lows are expected in the Upper Midwest as well as the southern High Plains. ...Southwest into Southern Plains... As the trough moves north of the area, some extension of moderate mid-level wind will be present across the southern Rockies. A lee surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle. These features will combine to promote surface winds around 20 mph over a broad area. RH could be very low in some places (5-10%), though 10-20% will be more common. Critical fire weather will occur for a several hours across parts of the Southwest into West Texas. ...South Dakota/Nebraska... Strong, gusty surface winds are expected behind the cold front. Winds of 15-25 mph appear possible. Cooling behind the front should lag in part due to a downslope component of the wind off the High Plains and mid-level drying allowing surface heating to occur. This should allow RH to fall to 15-25%. Drought impacted grasses will promote an elevated risk of fire ignition/spread. ..Wendt.. 04/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes along with scattered damaging winds and large hail are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will further amplify over the Upper Great Lakes towards the ON/QC border, supporting gradual deepening of a surface cyclone from 995 to 990 mb. In its wake, a separate shortwave impulse and intense mid-level jetlet will dive southeast across the northern Great Plains towards the Lower OH Valley. A surface cold front will arc south across the Lower Great Lakes and then southwestward through the Mid-South by late afternoon Monday. ...OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... While guidance has largely been consistent with synoptic-scale pattern over the past several days, large spread exists in the degree of boundary-layer heating on Monday afternoon ahead of the surface cold front. For example, the 00Z NSSL-ARW and HRW-FV3 are 10-15 F colder with warm-moist sector surface temps compared to the 00Z HRRR and HRW-ARW. These latter models simulate multiple long-track supercells. This heating discrepancy, along with low confidence in the aggressive low-level moistening indicated by most guidance beneath an expansive EML, mitigates a categorical upgrade this cycle. But all three hazards have been highlighted with level 2-SLGT risk probabilities. Overall expectation is for a ribbon of mid to upper 50s surface dew points to advect as far northeast as the Upper OH Valley. If robust boundary-layer heating indeed occurs, this would support MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg. The initial presence of the EML may delay storm development along the front until mid afternoon. But guidance consensus suggests at least scattered thunderstorms should form in the Central to Upper OH Valley vicinity as mid-level height falls increase atop the modestly convergent surface front. The approach of an intense mid-level jet will support fast-moving convection, along with effective bulk shear above 60 kts. Despite veered surface winds, low-level hodograph curvature should be moderately enlarged. A few supercells seem plausible in this setup, a couple of which may become long-tracked. These appear most probable across the southeast OH to northern WV vicinity, where tornado potential should be maximized during the early evening. Otherwise, a mix of large hail and damaging wind swaths are expected. East of the higher terrain in MD/northern VA, remnant steep low-level lapse rates may support isolated damaging gusts and marginal hail, before convection wanes/becomes increasingly elevated Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes along with scattered damaging winds and large hail are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will further amplify over the Upper Great Lakes towards the ON/QC border, supporting gradual deepening of a surface cyclone from 995 to 990 mb. In its wake, a separate shortwave impulse and intense mid-level jetlet will dive southeast across the northern Great Plains towards the Lower OH Valley. A surface cold front will arc south across the Lower Great Lakes and then southwestward through the Mid-South by late afternoon Monday. ...OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... While guidance has largely been consistent with synoptic-scale pattern over the past several days, large spread exists in the degree of boundary-layer heating on Monday afternoon ahead of the surface cold front. For example, the 00Z NSSL-ARW and HRW-FV3 are 10-15 F colder with warm-moist sector surface temps compared to the 00Z HRRR and HRW-ARW. These latter models simulate multiple long-track supercells. This heating discrepancy, along with low confidence in the aggressive low-level moistening indicated by most guidance beneath an expansive EML, mitigates a categorical upgrade this cycle. But all three hazards have been highlighted with level 2-SLGT risk probabilities. Overall expectation is for a ribbon of mid to upper 50s surface dew points to advect as far northeast as the Upper OH Valley. If robust boundary-layer heating indeed occurs, this would support MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg. The initial presence of the EML may delay storm development along the front until mid afternoon. But guidance consensus suggests at least scattered thunderstorms should form in the Central to Upper OH Valley vicinity as mid-level height falls increase atop the modestly convergent surface front. The approach of an intense mid-level jet will support fast-moving convection, along with effective bulk shear above 60 kts. Despite veered surface winds, low-level hodograph curvature should be moderately enlarged. A few supercells seem plausible in this setup, a couple of which may become long-tracked. These appear most probable across the southeast OH to northern WV vicinity, where tornado potential should be maximized during the early evening. Otherwise, a mix of large hail and damaging wind swaths are expected. East of the higher terrain in MD/northern VA, remnant steep low-level lapse rates may support isolated damaging gusts and marginal hail, before convection wanes/becomes increasingly elevated Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes along with scattered damaging winds and large hail are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will further amplify over the Upper Great Lakes towards the ON/QC border, supporting gradual deepening of a surface cyclone from 995 to 990 mb. In its wake, a separate shortwave impulse and intense mid-level jetlet will dive southeast across the northern Great Plains towards the Lower OH Valley. A surface cold front will arc south across the Lower Great Lakes and then southwestward through the Mid-South by late afternoon Monday. ...OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... While guidance has largely been consistent with synoptic-scale pattern over the past several days, large spread exists in the degree of boundary-layer heating on Monday afternoon ahead of the surface cold front. For example, the 00Z NSSL-ARW and HRW-FV3 are 10-15 F colder with warm-moist sector surface temps compared to the 00Z HRRR and HRW-ARW. These latter models simulate multiple long-track supercells. This heating discrepancy, along with low confidence in the aggressive low-level moistening indicated by most guidance beneath an expansive EML, mitigates a categorical upgrade this cycle. But all three hazards have been highlighted with level 2-SLGT risk probabilities. Overall expectation is for a ribbon of mid to upper 50s surface dew points to advect as far northeast as the Upper OH Valley. If robust boundary-layer heating indeed occurs, this would support MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg. The initial presence of the EML may delay storm development along the front until mid afternoon. But guidance consensus suggests at least scattered thunderstorms should form in the Central to Upper OH Valley vicinity as mid-level height falls increase atop the modestly convergent surface front. The approach of an intense mid-level jet will support fast-moving convection, along with effective bulk shear above 60 kts. Despite veered surface winds, low-level hodograph curvature should be moderately enlarged. A few supercells seem plausible in this setup, a couple of which may become long-tracked. These appear most probable across the southeast OH to northern WV vicinity, where tornado potential should be maximized during the early evening. Otherwise, a mix of large hail and damaging wind swaths are expected. East of the higher terrain in MD/northern VA, remnant steep low-level lapse rates may support isolated damaging gusts and marginal hail, before convection wanes/becomes increasingly elevated Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes along with scattered damaging winds and large hail are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will further amplify over the Upper Great Lakes towards the ON/QC border, supporting gradual deepening of a surface cyclone from 995 to 990 mb. In its wake, a separate shortwave impulse and intense mid-level jetlet will dive southeast across the northern Great Plains towards the Lower OH Valley. A surface cold front will arc south across the Lower Great Lakes and then southwestward through the Mid-South by late afternoon Monday. ...OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... While guidance has largely been consistent with synoptic-scale pattern over the past several days, large spread exists in the degree of boundary-layer heating on Monday afternoon ahead of the surface cold front. For example, the 00Z NSSL-ARW and HRW-FV3 are 10-15 F colder with warm-moist sector surface temps compared to the 00Z HRRR and HRW-ARW. These latter models simulate multiple long-track supercells. This heating discrepancy, along with low confidence in the aggressive low-level moistening indicated by most guidance beneath an expansive EML, mitigates a categorical upgrade this cycle. But all three hazards have been highlighted with level 2-SLGT risk probabilities. Overall expectation is for a ribbon of mid to upper 50s surface dew points to advect as far northeast as the Upper OH Valley. If robust boundary-layer heating indeed occurs, this would support MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg. The initial presence of the EML may delay storm development along the front until mid afternoon. But guidance consensus suggests at least scattered thunderstorms should form in the Central to Upper OH Valley vicinity as mid-level height falls increase atop the modestly convergent surface front. The approach of an intense mid-level jet will support fast-moving convection, along with effective bulk shear above 60 kts. Despite veered surface winds, low-level hodograph curvature should be moderately enlarged. A few supercells seem plausible in this setup, a couple of which may become long-tracked. These appear most probable across the southeast OH to northern WV vicinity, where tornado potential should be maximized during the early evening. Otherwise, a mix of large hail and damaging wind swaths are expected. East of the higher terrain in MD/northern VA, remnant steep low-level lapse rates may support isolated damaging gusts and marginal hail, before convection wanes/becomes increasingly elevated Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Sunday from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes, and from the Intermountain West to the central High Plains. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move through the Great Lakes and lower to mid Mississippi Valley, as a shortwave trough moves through the northern High Plains. At the surface, a low will move into the mid Missouri Valley as a cold front advances southeastward through the central Plains. Head of the front, an axis of low-level moisture will be in place from the Ozarks northward into Minnesota. Surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 40s F over the upper Mississippi Valley, where weak destabilization is expected. Along the northern part of the instability axis, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible during the day in parts of south-central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. In this area, instability will be elevated and mid-level lapse rates will be steep, suggesting that small hail will be possible with the stronger cells. Elsewhere, isolated to scattered thunderstorms, sub-severe in nature, are expected this afternoon from parts of eastern Utah eastward into the central High Plains. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Sunday from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes, and from the Intermountain West to the central High Plains. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move through the Great Lakes and lower to mid Mississippi Valley, as a shortwave trough moves through the northern High Plains. At the surface, a low will move into the mid Missouri Valley as a cold front advances southeastward through the central Plains. Head of the front, an axis of low-level moisture will be in place from the Ozarks northward into Minnesota. Surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 40s F over the upper Mississippi Valley, where weak destabilization is expected. Along the northern part of the instability axis, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible during the day in parts of south-central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. In this area, instability will be elevated and mid-level lapse rates will be steep, suggesting that small hail will be possible with the stronger cells. Elsewhere, isolated to scattered thunderstorms, sub-severe in nature, are expected this afternoon from parts of eastern Utah eastward into the central High Plains. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Sunday from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes, and from the Intermountain West to the central High Plains. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move through the Great Lakes and lower to mid Mississippi Valley, as a shortwave trough moves through the northern High Plains. At the surface, a low will move into the mid Missouri Valley as a cold front advances southeastward through the central Plains. Head of the front, an axis of low-level moisture will be in place from the Ozarks northward into Minnesota. Surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 40s F over the upper Mississippi Valley, where weak destabilization is expected. Along the northern part of the instability axis, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible during the day in parts of south-central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. In this area, instability will be elevated and mid-level lapse rates will be steep, suggesting that small hail will be possible with the stronger cells. Elsewhere, isolated to scattered thunderstorms, sub-severe in nature, are expected this afternoon from parts of eastern Utah eastward into the central High Plains. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/13/2025 Read more