Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts are possible from the Big Horns to the Black Hills from this afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast Montana/Northern Wyoming/Western South Dakota... A shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward across the Pacific Northwest today, as an associated 50 to 60 knot jet streak translates eastward into the northern Rockies. Ahead of the trough, a surface low will deepen across eastern Wyoming, which will increase low-level convergence across parts of the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints in the 40s F will contribute to weak destabilization. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development is first expected in the Big Horn Mountains during the early afternoon, with these storms moving eastward into the lower elevations of southeast Montana. Additional storms will likely develop in northern Wyoming, closer to the mid-level speed max. RAP forecast soundings near the Montana-Wyoming state line by mid to late afternoon have MLCAPE increasing to around 500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 55 knots, and 0-3 km lapse rates in the 9.5 to 10 C/km range. This environment should support a threat for severe wind gusts within the stronger downdrafts, with the greatest severe threat occurring in the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts are possible from the Big Horns to the Black Hills from this afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast Montana/Northern Wyoming/Western South Dakota... A shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward across the Pacific Northwest today, as an associated 50 to 60 knot jet streak translates eastward into the northern Rockies. Ahead of the trough, a surface low will deepen across eastern Wyoming, which will increase low-level convergence across parts of the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints in the 40s F will contribute to weak destabilization. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development is first expected in the Big Horn Mountains during the early afternoon, with these storms moving eastward into the lower elevations of southeast Montana. Additional storms will likely develop in northern Wyoming, closer to the mid-level speed max. RAP forecast soundings near the Montana-Wyoming state line by mid to late afternoon have MLCAPE increasing to around 500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 55 knots, and 0-3 km lapse rates in the 9.5 to 10 C/km range. This environment should support a threat for severe wind gusts within the stronger downdrafts, with the greatest severe threat occurring in the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts are possible from the Big Horns to the Black Hills from this afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast Montana/Northern Wyoming/Western South Dakota... A shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward across the Pacific Northwest today, as an associated 50 to 60 knot jet streak translates eastward into the northern Rockies. Ahead of the trough, a surface low will deepen across eastern Wyoming, which will increase low-level convergence across parts of the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints in the 40s F will contribute to weak destabilization. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development is first expected in the Big Horn Mountains during the early afternoon, with these storms moving eastward into the lower elevations of southeast Montana. Additional storms will likely develop in northern Wyoming, closer to the mid-level speed max. RAP forecast soundings near the Montana-Wyoming state line by mid to late afternoon have MLCAPE increasing to around 500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 55 knots, and 0-3 km lapse rates in the 9.5 to 10 C/km range. This environment should support a threat for severe wind gusts within the stronger downdrafts, with the greatest severe threat occurring in the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts are possible from the Big Horns to the Black Hills from this afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast Montana/Northern Wyoming/Western South Dakota... A shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward across the Pacific Northwest today, as an associated 50 to 60 knot jet streak translates eastward into the northern Rockies. Ahead of the trough, a surface low will deepen across eastern Wyoming, which will increase low-level convergence across parts of the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints in the 40s F will contribute to weak destabilization. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development is first expected in the Big Horn Mountains during the early afternoon, with these storms moving eastward into the lower elevations of southeast Montana. Additional storms will likely develop in northern Wyoming, closer to the mid-level speed max. RAP forecast soundings near the Montana-Wyoming state line by mid to late afternoon have MLCAPE increasing to around 500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 55 knots, and 0-3 km lapse rates in the 9.5 to 10 C/km range. This environment should support a threat for severe wind gusts within the stronger downdrafts, with the greatest severe threat occurring in the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts are possible from the Big Horns to the Black Hills from this afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast Montana/Northern Wyoming/Western South Dakota... A shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward across the Pacific Northwest today, as an associated 50 to 60 knot jet streak translates eastward into the northern Rockies. Ahead of the trough, a surface low will deepen across eastern Wyoming, which will increase low-level convergence across parts of the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints in the 40s F will contribute to weak destabilization. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development is first expected in the Big Horn Mountains during the early afternoon, with these storms moving eastward into the lower elevations of southeast Montana. Additional storms will likely develop in northern Wyoming, closer to the mid-level speed max. RAP forecast soundings near the Montana-Wyoming state line by mid to late afternoon have MLCAPE increasing to around 500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 55 knots, and 0-3 km lapse rates in the 9.5 to 10 C/km range. This environment should support a threat for severe wind gusts within the stronger downdrafts, with the greatest severe threat occurring in the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening from parts of the Atlantic Seaboard south-southwestward into northern and central Florida. ...DISCUSSION... The latest water vapor shows a trough over the eastern U.S. with several minor perturbations embedded in the trough. At the surface, a low is located off the coast of Virginia, with a cold front extending south-southwestward from near the coast of North Carolina into northern Florida. Thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the front this evening. A strong thunderstorm will be possible near an axis of instability over the north-central Florida Peninsula over the next hour or two. However, the airmass will become more stable, limiting the potential for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening from parts of the Atlantic Seaboard south-southwestward into northern and central Florida. ...DISCUSSION... The latest water vapor shows a trough over the eastern U.S. with several minor perturbations embedded in the trough. At the surface, a low is located off the coast of Virginia, with a cold front extending south-southwestward from near the coast of North Carolina into northern Florida. Thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the front this evening. A strong thunderstorm will be possible near an axis of instability over the north-central Florida Peninsula over the next hour or two. However, the airmass will become more stable, limiting the potential for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening from parts of the Atlantic Seaboard south-southwestward into northern and central Florida. ...DISCUSSION... The latest water vapor shows a trough over the eastern U.S. with several minor perturbations embedded in the trough. At the surface, a low is located off the coast of Virginia, with a cold front extending south-southwestward from near the coast of North Carolina into northern Florida. Thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the front this evening. A strong thunderstorm will be possible near an axis of instability over the north-central Florida Peninsula over the next hour or two. However, the airmass will become more stable, limiting the potential for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 04/12/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 11 23:16:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 11 23:16:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0446 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0446 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Areas affected...northern Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 112051Z - 112315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Several storms may produce small hail and locally gusty winds through late afternoon. DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures have risen into the upper 70s to near 80 F this afternoon, as temperatures aloft continue to cool. A very steep lapse rate environment has developed with 500 mb temperature to -20 C into parts of the FL Panhandle and northern FL. A few thunderstorms have already formed along the surface trough extending from the Panhandle into extreme southeast GA, with indications of small/non-severe hail. Moisture is the limiting factor to storm severity today, with low dewpoints spreading southward. Even so, convective coverage may continue to increase over the next couple hours as lapse rates are maximized. Although low PWAT overall, the deepened boundary layer along with low freezing levels and lengthy hodographs will work together to produce primarily non-severe hail. Boundary layer winds remain relatively weak, therefore any strong to potentially damaging gust would likely be localized (but possibly aided by cold hail-laden outflow). ..Jewell/Gleason.. 04/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 30028555 30338467 30628282 31068144 30828138 30158126 29728107 28948262 29128307 29598353 29928389 29898419 29768449 29568500 29628522 29768546 30028555 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A digging upper-level trough over the Northern Plains on day 3/Sunday will translate east-southeastward into the Great Lakes region through day 5/Tuesday. Enhanced westerly mid-level flow atop a dry, deeply mixed boundary layer south of the aforementioned upper-level trough will result in likely Critical fire weather conditions across a large portion of the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains on day 3/Sunday where dry, drought stressed fuels exist. Strong northwest winds in a dry, post-frontal environment in addition to a lack of precipitation and persistent receptive fuels could bring Critical fire weather conditions to portions of the Central Plains on day 4/Monday. Persistent westerly flow aloft along with a mid-level short wave trough is expected to keep at least an elevated fire weather threat across the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains from day 5/Tuesday through day 7/Thursday. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A digging upper-level trough over the Northern Plains on day 3/Sunday will translate east-southeastward into the Great Lakes region through day 5/Tuesday. Enhanced westerly mid-level flow atop a dry, deeply mixed boundary layer south of the aforementioned upper-level trough will result in likely Critical fire weather conditions across a large portion of the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains on day 3/Sunday where dry, drought stressed fuels exist. Strong northwest winds in a dry, post-frontal environment in addition to a lack of precipitation and persistent receptive fuels could bring Critical fire weather conditions to portions of the Central Plains on day 4/Monday. Persistent westerly flow aloft along with a mid-level short wave trough is expected to keep at least an elevated fire weather threat across the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains from day 5/Tuesday through day 7/Thursday. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A digging upper-level trough over the Northern Plains on day 3/Sunday will translate east-southeastward into the Great Lakes region through day 5/Tuesday. Enhanced westerly mid-level flow atop a dry, deeply mixed boundary layer south of the aforementioned upper-level trough will result in likely Critical fire weather conditions across a large portion of the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains on day 3/Sunday where dry, drought stressed fuels exist. Strong northwest winds in a dry, post-frontal environment in addition to a lack of precipitation and persistent receptive fuels could bring Critical fire weather conditions to portions of the Central Plains on day 4/Monday. Persistent westerly flow aloft along with a mid-level short wave trough is expected to keep at least an elevated fire weather threat across the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains from day 5/Tuesday through day 7/Thursday. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A digging upper-level trough over the Northern Plains on day 3/Sunday will translate east-southeastward into the Great Lakes region through day 5/Tuesday. Enhanced westerly mid-level flow atop a dry, deeply mixed boundary layer south of the aforementioned upper-level trough will result in likely Critical fire weather conditions across a large portion of the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains on day 3/Sunday where dry, drought stressed fuels exist. Strong northwest winds in a dry, post-frontal environment in addition to a lack of precipitation and persistent receptive fuels could bring Critical fire weather conditions to portions of the Central Plains on day 4/Monday. Persistent westerly flow aloft along with a mid-level short wave trough is expected to keep at least an elevated fire weather threat across the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains from day 5/Tuesday through day 7/Thursday. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A digging upper-level trough over the Northern Plains on day 3/Sunday will translate east-southeastward into the Great Lakes region through day 5/Tuesday. Enhanced westerly mid-level flow atop a dry, deeply mixed boundary layer south of the aforementioned upper-level trough will result in likely Critical fire weather conditions across a large portion of the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains on day 3/Sunday where dry, drought stressed fuels exist. Strong northwest winds in a dry, post-frontal environment in addition to a lack of precipitation and persistent receptive fuels could bring Critical fire weather conditions to portions of the Central Plains on day 4/Monday. Persistent westerly flow aloft along with a mid-level short wave trough is expected to keep at least an elevated fire weather threat across the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains from day 5/Tuesday through day 7/Thursday. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A digging upper-level trough over the Northern Plains on day 3/Sunday will translate east-southeastward into the Great Lakes region through day 5/Tuesday. Enhanced westerly mid-level flow atop a dry, deeply mixed boundary layer south of the aforementioned upper-level trough will result in likely Critical fire weather conditions across a large portion of the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains on day 3/Sunday where dry, drought stressed fuels exist. Strong northwest winds in a dry, post-frontal environment in addition to a lack of precipitation and persistent receptive fuels could bring Critical fire weather conditions to portions of the Central Plains on day 4/Monday. Persistent westerly flow aloft along with a mid-level short wave trough is expected to keep at least an elevated fire weather threat across the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains from day 5/Tuesday through day 7/Thursday. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Expanded Elevated highlights into portions of Arizona partially due to increasingly dry fuel indices along the Mogollon Rim and into northwestern Arizona within an ongoing severe to extreme drought in some areas. Critical fire weather threat is still expected across northeastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Otherwise, the forecast (see below) for Elevated fire weather conditions remains on track across the Florida Peninsula. Dewpoints in the 40s within a shallow boundary layer should limit minimum relative humidity values in the 25-35 percent range across portions of the Midwest tomorrow. Southerly return flow of 20-30 mph across the area could promote localized areas of Elevated fire weather conditions. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern should transition from western/central ridge and eastern trough to western trough, central ridge, and eastern trough. This will be the result of the eastern trough continuing to move east toward the Atlantic at the same time as the western trough continues east. This ridge should stretch from northern Mexico into the Great Lakes, with a shortwave trough digging southeast into the northern Rocky Mountains. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will develop across the Southern Plains in response to an increase in westerly mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the aforementioned Northern Rocky Mountain trough and a subtropical jet. This downslope flow will allow relative humidity to fall into the low teens (locally into the upper-single digits) with gusty winds to near 35 mph across the Critical area. Surrounding the Critical area will be a large area of Elevated. Within the elevated, surface winds may not be as great as in the corridor highlighted by the Critical area. This, coupled with ERC values generally less than 80%, should preclude the need for Critical delineation. ... Florida Peninsula ... A dry, post-frontal airmass should be in place across much of the region on Saturday. Much of the peninsula will see little if any precipitation associated with the frontal passage on Friday. Thus, fuels should continue to dry. The dry airmass should allow for sufficiently strong flow to mix down to the surface to support elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Expanded Elevated highlights into portions of Arizona partially due to increasingly dry fuel indices along the Mogollon Rim and into northwestern Arizona within an ongoing severe to extreme drought in some areas. Critical fire weather threat is still expected across northeastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Otherwise, the forecast (see below) for Elevated fire weather conditions remains on track across the Florida Peninsula. Dewpoints in the 40s within a shallow boundary layer should limit minimum relative humidity values in the 25-35 percent range across portions of the Midwest tomorrow. Southerly return flow of 20-30 mph across the area could promote localized areas of Elevated fire weather conditions. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern should transition from western/central ridge and eastern trough to western trough, central ridge, and eastern trough. This will be the result of the eastern trough continuing to move east toward the Atlantic at the same time as the western trough continues east. This ridge should stretch from northern Mexico into the Great Lakes, with a shortwave trough digging southeast into the northern Rocky Mountains. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will develop across the Southern Plains in response to an increase in westerly mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the aforementioned Northern Rocky Mountain trough and a subtropical jet. This downslope flow will allow relative humidity to fall into the low teens (locally into the upper-single digits) with gusty winds to near 35 mph across the Critical area. Surrounding the Critical area will be a large area of Elevated. Within the elevated, surface winds may not be as great as in the corridor highlighted by the Critical area. This, coupled with ERC values generally less than 80%, should preclude the need for Critical delineation. ... Florida Peninsula ... A dry, post-frontal airmass should be in place across much of the region on Saturday. Much of the peninsula will see little if any precipitation associated with the frontal passage on Friday. Thus, fuels should continue to dry. The dry airmass should allow for sufficiently strong flow to mix down to the surface to support elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Expanded Elevated highlights into portions of Arizona partially due to increasingly dry fuel indices along the Mogollon Rim and into northwestern Arizona within an ongoing severe to extreme drought in some areas. Critical fire weather threat is still expected across northeastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Otherwise, the forecast (see below) for Elevated fire weather conditions remains on track across the Florida Peninsula. Dewpoints in the 40s within a shallow boundary layer should limit minimum relative humidity values in the 25-35 percent range across portions of the Midwest tomorrow. Southerly return flow of 20-30 mph across the area could promote localized areas of Elevated fire weather conditions. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern should transition from western/central ridge and eastern trough to western trough, central ridge, and eastern trough. This will be the result of the eastern trough continuing to move east toward the Atlantic at the same time as the western trough continues east. This ridge should stretch from northern Mexico into the Great Lakes, with a shortwave trough digging southeast into the northern Rocky Mountains. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will develop across the Southern Plains in response to an increase in westerly mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the aforementioned Northern Rocky Mountain trough and a subtropical jet. This downslope flow will allow relative humidity to fall into the low teens (locally into the upper-single digits) with gusty winds to near 35 mph across the Critical area. Surrounding the Critical area will be a large area of Elevated. Within the elevated, surface winds may not be as great as in the corridor highlighted by the Critical area. This, coupled with ERC values generally less than 80%, should preclude the need for Critical delineation. ... Florida Peninsula ... A dry, post-frontal airmass should be in place across much of the region on Saturday. Much of the peninsula will see little if any precipitation associated with the frontal passage on Friday. Thus, fuels should continue to dry. The dry airmass should allow for sufficiently strong flow to mix down to the surface to support elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more