Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Expanded Elevated highlights into portions of Arizona partially due to increasingly dry fuel indices along the Mogollon Rim and into northwestern Arizona within an ongoing severe to extreme drought in some areas. Critical fire weather threat is still expected across northeastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Otherwise, the forecast (see below) for Elevated fire weather conditions remains on track across the Florida Peninsula. Dewpoints in the 40s within a shallow boundary layer should limit minimum relative humidity values in the 25-35 percent range across portions of the Midwest tomorrow. Southerly return flow of 20-30 mph across the area could promote localized areas of Elevated fire weather conditions. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern should transition from western/central ridge and eastern trough to western trough, central ridge, and eastern trough. This will be the result of the eastern trough continuing to move east toward the Atlantic at the same time as the western trough continues east. This ridge should stretch from northern Mexico into the Great Lakes, with a shortwave trough digging southeast into the northern Rocky Mountains. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will develop across the Southern Plains in response to an increase in westerly mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the aforementioned Northern Rocky Mountain trough and a subtropical jet. This downslope flow will allow relative humidity to fall into the low teens (locally into the upper-single digits) with gusty winds to near 35 mph across the Critical area. Surrounding the Critical area will be a large area of Elevated. Within the elevated, surface winds may not be as great as in the corridor highlighted by the Critical area. This, coupled with ERC values generally less than 80%, should preclude the need for Critical delineation. ... Florida Peninsula ... A dry, post-frontal airmass should be in place across much of the region on Saturday. Much of the peninsula will see little if any precipitation associated with the frontal passage on Friday. Thus, fuels should continue to dry. The dry airmass should allow for sufficiently strong flow to mix down to the surface to support elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Expanded Elevated highlights into portions of Arizona partially due to increasingly dry fuel indices along the Mogollon Rim and into northwestern Arizona within an ongoing severe to extreme drought in some areas. Critical fire weather threat is still expected across northeastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Otherwise, the forecast (see below) for Elevated fire weather conditions remains on track across the Florida Peninsula. Dewpoints in the 40s within a shallow boundary layer should limit minimum relative humidity values in the 25-35 percent range across portions of the Midwest tomorrow. Southerly return flow of 20-30 mph across the area could promote localized areas of Elevated fire weather conditions. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern should transition from western/central ridge and eastern trough to western trough, central ridge, and eastern trough. This will be the result of the eastern trough continuing to move east toward the Atlantic at the same time as the western trough continues east. This ridge should stretch from northern Mexico into the Great Lakes, with a shortwave trough digging southeast into the northern Rocky Mountains. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will develop across the Southern Plains in response to an increase in westerly mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the aforementioned Northern Rocky Mountain trough and a subtropical jet. This downslope flow will allow relative humidity to fall into the low teens (locally into the upper-single digits) with gusty winds to near 35 mph across the Critical area. Surrounding the Critical area will be a large area of Elevated. Within the elevated, surface winds may not be as great as in the corridor highlighted by the Critical area. This, coupled with ERC values generally less than 80%, should preclude the need for Critical delineation. ... Florida Peninsula ... A dry, post-frontal airmass should be in place across much of the region on Saturday. Much of the peninsula will see little if any precipitation associated with the frontal passage on Friday. Thus, fuels should continue to dry. The dry airmass should allow for sufficiently strong flow to mix down to the surface to support elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential will continue this afternoon and evening from parts of north Florida and far southeast Georgia to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia. ...Discussion... The ongoing forecast continues to reflect the evolving convective scenario across parts of the southeastern CONUS. Within the broader area of convection across this region, the strongest storms ongoing at this time are indicated across portions central and eastern North Carolina, where 500 to 1000 J/kg surface-based CAPE has evolved as a result of afternoon heating beneath cool mid-level temperatures. Meanwhile, an increase in convection is occurring from southern Georgia across north Florida and into the Panhandle, along a weak surface front. Limited/local severe risk may evolve across this region in the next 1 to 2 hours. Overall, any ongoing severe threat is forecast to diminish diurnally this evening. ..Goss.. 04/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/ ...North Florida to the Eastern Carolinas and Far Southeast Virginia... A mid-level trough will continue amplifying today over the southern Appalachians as one embedded speed maximum rotates northeastward over the Carolinas, and an upstream shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MS Valley into the Southeast. An associated weak surface low will develop northeastward across eastern NC and far southeast VA, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into north FL. Surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s, in combination with daytime heating beneath cold mid-level temperatures, will support MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon near the cyclone track across the eastern Carolinas, and along the front in north FL. The weak instability and relatively straight hodographs aloft suggest some updraft organization will be possible, with an isolated threat for hail and strong to damaging winds this afternoon/evening. A few low-topped thunderstorms should also occur this afternoon over the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be weaker compared to areas farther east/southeast, with a limited overall severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential will continue this afternoon and evening from parts of north Florida and far southeast Georgia to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia. ...Discussion... The ongoing forecast continues to reflect the evolving convective scenario across parts of the southeastern CONUS. Within the broader area of convection across this region, the strongest storms ongoing at this time are indicated across portions central and eastern North Carolina, where 500 to 1000 J/kg surface-based CAPE has evolved as a result of afternoon heating beneath cool mid-level temperatures. Meanwhile, an increase in convection is occurring from southern Georgia across north Florida and into the Panhandle, along a weak surface front. Limited/local severe risk may evolve across this region in the next 1 to 2 hours. Overall, any ongoing severe threat is forecast to diminish diurnally this evening. ..Goss.. 04/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/ ...North Florida to the Eastern Carolinas and Far Southeast Virginia... A mid-level trough will continue amplifying today over the southern Appalachians as one embedded speed maximum rotates northeastward over the Carolinas, and an upstream shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MS Valley into the Southeast. An associated weak surface low will develop northeastward across eastern NC and far southeast VA, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into north FL. Surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s, in combination with daytime heating beneath cold mid-level temperatures, will support MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon near the cyclone track across the eastern Carolinas, and along the front in north FL. The weak instability and relatively straight hodographs aloft suggest some updraft organization will be possible, with an isolated threat for hail and strong to damaging winds this afternoon/evening. A few low-topped thunderstorms should also occur this afternoon over the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be weaker compared to areas farther east/southeast, with a limited overall severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential will continue this afternoon and evening from parts of north Florida and far southeast Georgia to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia. ...Discussion... The ongoing forecast continues to reflect the evolving convective scenario across parts of the southeastern CONUS. Within the broader area of convection across this region, the strongest storms ongoing at this time are indicated across portions central and eastern North Carolina, where 500 to 1000 J/kg surface-based CAPE has evolved as a result of afternoon heating beneath cool mid-level temperatures. Meanwhile, an increase in convection is occurring from southern Georgia across north Florida and into the Panhandle, along a weak surface front. Limited/local severe risk may evolve across this region in the next 1 to 2 hours. Overall, any ongoing severe threat is forecast to diminish diurnally this evening. ..Goss.. 04/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/ ...North Florida to the Eastern Carolinas and Far Southeast Virginia... A mid-level trough will continue amplifying today over the southern Appalachians as one embedded speed maximum rotates northeastward over the Carolinas, and an upstream shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MS Valley into the Southeast. An associated weak surface low will develop northeastward across eastern NC and far southeast VA, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into north FL. Surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s, in combination with daytime heating beneath cold mid-level temperatures, will support MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon near the cyclone track across the eastern Carolinas, and along the front in north FL. The weak instability and relatively straight hodographs aloft suggest some updraft organization will be possible, with an isolated threat for hail and strong to damaging winds this afternoon/evening. A few low-topped thunderstorms should also occur this afternoon over the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be weaker compared to areas farther east/southeast, with a limited overall severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential will continue this afternoon and evening from parts of north Florida and far southeast Georgia to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia. ...Discussion... The ongoing forecast continues to reflect the evolving convective scenario across parts of the southeastern CONUS. Within the broader area of convection across this region, the strongest storms ongoing at this time are indicated across portions central and eastern North Carolina, where 500 to 1000 J/kg surface-based CAPE has evolved as a result of afternoon heating beneath cool mid-level temperatures. Meanwhile, an increase in convection is occurring from southern Georgia across north Florida and into the Panhandle, along a weak surface front. Limited/local severe risk may evolve across this region in the next 1 to 2 hours. Overall, any ongoing severe threat is forecast to diminish diurnally this evening. ..Goss.. 04/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/ ...North Florida to the Eastern Carolinas and Far Southeast Virginia... A mid-level trough will continue amplifying today over the southern Appalachians as one embedded speed maximum rotates northeastward over the Carolinas, and an upstream shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MS Valley into the Southeast. An associated weak surface low will develop northeastward across eastern NC and far southeast VA, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into north FL. Surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s, in combination with daytime heating beneath cold mid-level temperatures, will support MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon near the cyclone track across the eastern Carolinas, and along the front in north FL. The weak instability and relatively straight hodographs aloft suggest some updraft organization will be possible, with an isolated threat for hail and strong to damaging winds this afternoon/evening. A few low-topped thunderstorms should also occur this afternoon over the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be weaker compared to areas farther east/southeast, with a limited overall severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential will continue this afternoon and evening from parts of north Florida and far southeast Georgia to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia. ...Discussion... The ongoing forecast continues to reflect the evolving convective scenario across parts of the southeastern CONUS. Within the broader area of convection across this region, the strongest storms ongoing at this time are indicated across portions central and eastern North Carolina, where 500 to 1000 J/kg surface-based CAPE has evolved as a result of afternoon heating beneath cool mid-level temperatures. Meanwhile, an increase in convection is occurring from southern Georgia across north Florida and into the Panhandle, along a weak surface front. Limited/local severe risk may evolve across this region in the next 1 to 2 hours. Overall, any ongoing severe threat is forecast to diminish diurnally this evening. ..Goss.. 04/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/ ...North Florida to the Eastern Carolinas and Far Southeast Virginia... A mid-level trough will continue amplifying today over the southern Appalachians as one embedded speed maximum rotates northeastward over the Carolinas, and an upstream shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MS Valley into the Southeast. An associated weak surface low will develop northeastward across eastern NC and far southeast VA, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into north FL. Surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s, in combination with daytime heating beneath cold mid-level temperatures, will support MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon near the cyclone track across the eastern Carolinas, and along the front in north FL. The weak instability and relatively straight hodographs aloft suggest some updraft organization will be possible, with an isolated threat for hail and strong to damaging winds this afternoon/evening. A few low-topped thunderstorms should also occur this afternoon over the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be weaker compared to areas farther east/southeast, with a limited overall severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential will continue this afternoon and evening from parts of north Florida and far southeast Georgia to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia. ...Discussion... The ongoing forecast continues to reflect the evolving convective scenario across parts of the southeastern CONUS. Within the broader area of convection across this region, the strongest storms ongoing at this time are indicated across portions central and eastern North Carolina, where 500 to 1000 J/kg surface-based CAPE has evolved as a result of afternoon heating beneath cool mid-level temperatures. Meanwhile, an increase in convection is occurring from southern Georgia across north Florida and into the Panhandle, along a weak surface front. Limited/local severe risk may evolve across this region in the next 1 to 2 hours. Overall, any ongoing severe threat is forecast to diminish diurnally this evening. ..Goss.. 04/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/ ...North Florida to the Eastern Carolinas and Far Southeast Virginia... A mid-level trough will continue amplifying today over the southern Appalachians as one embedded speed maximum rotates northeastward over the Carolinas, and an upstream shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MS Valley into the Southeast. An associated weak surface low will develop northeastward across eastern NC and far southeast VA, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into north FL. Surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s, in combination with daytime heating beneath cold mid-level temperatures, will support MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon near the cyclone track across the eastern Carolinas, and along the front in north FL. The weak instability and relatively straight hodographs aloft suggest some updraft organization will be possible, with an isolated threat for hail and strong to damaging winds this afternoon/evening. A few low-topped thunderstorms should also occur this afternoon over the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be weaker compared to areas farther east/southeast, with a limited overall severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential will continue this afternoon and evening from parts of north Florida and far southeast Georgia to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia. ...Discussion... The ongoing forecast continues to reflect the evolving convective scenario across parts of the southeastern CONUS. Within the broader area of convection across this region, the strongest storms ongoing at this time are indicated across portions central and eastern North Carolina, where 500 to 1000 J/kg surface-based CAPE has evolved as a result of afternoon heating beneath cool mid-level temperatures. Meanwhile, an increase in convection is occurring from southern Georgia across north Florida and into the Panhandle, along a weak surface front. Limited/local severe risk may evolve across this region in the next 1 to 2 hours. Overall, any ongoing severe threat is forecast to diminish diurnally this evening. ..Goss.. 04/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/ ...North Florida to the Eastern Carolinas and Far Southeast Virginia... A mid-level trough will continue amplifying today over the southern Appalachians as one embedded speed maximum rotates northeastward over the Carolinas, and an upstream shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MS Valley into the Southeast. An associated weak surface low will develop northeastward across eastern NC and far southeast VA, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into north FL. Surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s, in combination with daytime heating beneath cold mid-level temperatures, will support MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon near the cyclone track across the eastern Carolinas, and along the front in north FL. The weak instability and relatively straight hodographs aloft suggest some updraft organization will be possible, with an isolated threat for hail and strong to damaging winds this afternoon/evening. A few low-topped thunderstorms should also occur this afternoon over the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be weaker compared to areas farther east/southeast, with a limited overall severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential will continue this afternoon and evening from parts of north Florida and far southeast Georgia to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia. ...Discussion... The ongoing forecast continues to reflect the evolving convective scenario across parts of the southeastern CONUS. Within the broader area of convection across this region, the strongest storms ongoing at this time are indicated across portions central and eastern North Carolina, where 500 to 1000 J/kg surface-based CAPE has evolved as a result of afternoon heating beneath cool mid-level temperatures. Meanwhile, an increase in convection is occurring from southern Georgia across north Florida and into the Panhandle, along a weak surface front. Limited/local severe risk may evolve across this region in the next 1 to 2 hours. Overall, any ongoing severe threat is forecast to diminish diurnally this evening. ..Goss.. 04/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/ ...North Florida to the Eastern Carolinas and Far Southeast Virginia... A mid-level trough will continue amplifying today over the southern Appalachians as one embedded speed maximum rotates northeastward over the Carolinas, and an upstream shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MS Valley into the Southeast. An associated weak surface low will develop northeastward across eastern NC and far southeast VA, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into north FL. Surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s, in combination with daytime heating beneath cold mid-level temperatures, will support MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon near the cyclone track across the eastern Carolinas, and along the front in north FL. The weak instability and relatively straight hodographs aloft suggest some updraft organization will be possible, with an isolated threat for hail and strong to damaging winds this afternoon/evening. A few low-topped thunderstorms should also occur this afternoon over the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be weaker compared to areas farther east/southeast, with a limited overall severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential will continue this afternoon and evening from parts of north Florida and far southeast Georgia to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia. ...Discussion... The ongoing forecast continues to reflect the evolving convective scenario across parts of the southeastern CONUS. Within the broader area of convection across this region, the strongest storms ongoing at this time are indicated across portions central and eastern North Carolina, where 500 to 1000 J/kg surface-based CAPE has evolved as a result of afternoon heating beneath cool mid-level temperatures. Meanwhile, an increase in convection is occurring from southern Georgia across north Florida and into the Panhandle, along a weak surface front. Limited/local severe risk may evolve across this region in the next 1 to 2 hours. Overall, any ongoing severe threat is forecast to diminish diurnally this evening. ..Goss.. 04/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/ ...North Florida to the Eastern Carolinas and Far Southeast Virginia... A mid-level trough will continue amplifying today over the southern Appalachians as one embedded speed maximum rotates northeastward over the Carolinas, and an upstream shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MS Valley into the Southeast. An associated weak surface low will develop northeastward across eastern NC and far southeast VA, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into north FL. Surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s, in combination with daytime heating beneath cold mid-level temperatures, will support MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon near the cyclone track across the eastern Carolinas, and along the front in north FL. The weak instability and relatively straight hodographs aloft suggest some updraft organization will be possible, with an isolated threat for hail and strong to damaging winds this afternoon/evening. A few low-topped thunderstorms should also occur this afternoon over the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be weaker compared to areas farther east/southeast, with a limited overall severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential will continue this afternoon and evening from parts of north Florida and far southeast Georgia to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia. ...Discussion... The ongoing forecast continues to reflect the evolving convective scenario across parts of the southeastern CONUS. Within the broader area of convection across this region, the strongest storms ongoing at this time are indicated across portions central and eastern North Carolina, where 500 to 1000 J/kg surface-based CAPE has evolved as a result of afternoon heating beneath cool mid-level temperatures. Meanwhile, an increase in convection is occurring from southern Georgia across north Florida and into the Panhandle, along a weak surface front. Limited/local severe risk may evolve across this region in the next 1 to 2 hours. Overall, any ongoing severe threat is forecast to diminish diurnally this evening. ..Goss.. 04/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/ ...North Florida to the Eastern Carolinas and Far Southeast Virginia... A mid-level trough will continue amplifying today over the southern Appalachians as one embedded speed maximum rotates northeastward over the Carolinas, and an upstream shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MS Valley into the Southeast. An associated weak surface low will develop northeastward across eastern NC and far southeast VA, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into north FL. Surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s, in combination with daytime heating beneath cold mid-level temperatures, will support MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon near the cyclone track across the eastern Carolinas, and along the front in north FL. The weak instability and relatively straight hodographs aloft suggest some updraft organization will be possible, with an isolated threat for hail and strong to damaging winds this afternoon/evening. A few low-topped thunderstorms should also occur this afternoon over the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be weaker compared to areas farther east/southeast, with a limited overall severe threat. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains will amplify as it moves into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move generally from the central Plains into the northern Great Lakes. A cold front will extend from this surface low south and then southwest to the central Plains. Ahead of this front, upper 50s to perhaps low 60s dewpoints are forecast which should be result in weak surface based instability Sunday afternoon. Guidance varies on the position of the surface low and destabilization ahead of the front. Long/straight hodographs within the cloud bearing layer should support some storm organization and the potential for some strong to locally severe storms. However, strong capping is forecast ahead of the front with thunderstorm potential mostly confined near the surface low. Destabilization should also be more limited farther north. Therefore, a narrow corridor of an uncapped warm sector with sufficient destabilization and shear for an isolated severe weather threat may exist, but is unclear if/where this may occur at this time. ...CO/KS... A few thunderstorms are possible along and north of a cold front across eastern Colorado and into western Kansas as a shortwave trough transits the central Rockies. Moisture/instability is expected to be limited which should keep any thunderstorm potential isolated. ..Bentley.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains will amplify as it moves into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move generally from the central Plains into the northern Great Lakes. A cold front will extend from this surface low south and then southwest to the central Plains. Ahead of this front, upper 50s to perhaps low 60s dewpoints are forecast which should be result in weak surface based instability Sunday afternoon. Guidance varies on the position of the surface low and destabilization ahead of the front. Long/straight hodographs within the cloud bearing layer should support some storm organization and the potential for some strong to locally severe storms. However, strong capping is forecast ahead of the front with thunderstorm potential mostly confined near the surface low. Destabilization should also be more limited farther north. Therefore, a narrow corridor of an uncapped warm sector with sufficient destabilization and shear for an isolated severe weather threat may exist, but is unclear if/where this may occur at this time. ...CO/KS... A few thunderstorms are possible along and north of a cold front across eastern Colorado and into western Kansas as a shortwave trough transits the central Rockies. Moisture/instability is expected to be limited which should keep any thunderstorm potential isolated. ..Bentley.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains will amplify as it moves into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move generally from the central Plains into the northern Great Lakes. A cold front will extend from this surface low south and then southwest to the central Plains. Ahead of this front, upper 50s to perhaps low 60s dewpoints are forecast which should be result in weak surface based instability Sunday afternoon. Guidance varies on the position of the surface low and destabilization ahead of the front. Long/straight hodographs within the cloud bearing layer should support some storm organization and the potential for some strong to locally severe storms. However, strong capping is forecast ahead of the front with thunderstorm potential mostly confined near the surface low. Destabilization should also be more limited farther north. Therefore, a narrow corridor of an uncapped warm sector with sufficient destabilization and shear for an isolated severe weather threat may exist, but is unclear if/where this may occur at this time. ...CO/KS... A few thunderstorms are possible along and north of a cold front across eastern Colorado and into western Kansas as a shortwave trough transits the central Rockies. Moisture/instability is expected to be limited which should keep any thunderstorm potential isolated. ..Bentley.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains will amplify as it moves into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move generally from the central Plains into the northern Great Lakes. A cold front will extend from this surface low south and then southwest to the central Plains. Ahead of this front, upper 50s to perhaps low 60s dewpoints are forecast which should be result in weak surface based instability Sunday afternoon. Guidance varies on the position of the surface low and destabilization ahead of the front. Long/straight hodographs within the cloud bearing layer should support some storm organization and the potential for some strong to locally severe storms. However, strong capping is forecast ahead of the front with thunderstorm potential mostly confined near the surface low. Destabilization should also be more limited farther north. Therefore, a narrow corridor of an uncapped warm sector with sufficient destabilization and shear for an isolated severe weather threat may exist, but is unclear if/where this may occur at this time. ...CO/KS... A few thunderstorms are possible along and north of a cold front across eastern Colorado and into western Kansas as a shortwave trough transits the central Rockies. Moisture/instability is expected to be limited which should keep any thunderstorm potential isolated. ..Bentley.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains will amplify as it moves into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move generally from the central Plains into the northern Great Lakes. A cold front will extend from this surface low south and then southwest to the central Plains. Ahead of this front, upper 50s to perhaps low 60s dewpoints are forecast which should be result in weak surface based instability Sunday afternoon. Guidance varies on the position of the surface low and destabilization ahead of the front. Long/straight hodographs within the cloud bearing layer should support some storm organization and the potential for some strong to locally severe storms. However, strong capping is forecast ahead of the front with thunderstorm potential mostly confined near the surface low. Destabilization should also be more limited farther north. Therefore, a narrow corridor of an uncapped warm sector with sufficient destabilization and shear for an isolated severe weather threat may exist, but is unclear if/where this may occur at this time. ...CO/KS... A few thunderstorms are possible along and north of a cold front across eastern Colorado and into western Kansas as a shortwave trough transits the central Rockies. Moisture/instability is expected to be limited which should keep any thunderstorm potential isolated. ..Bentley.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains will amplify as it moves into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move generally from the central Plains into the northern Great Lakes. A cold front will extend from this surface low south and then southwest to the central Plains. Ahead of this front, upper 50s to perhaps low 60s dewpoints are forecast which should be result in weak surface based instability Sunday afternoon. Guidance varies on the position of the surface low and destabilization ahead of the front. Long/straight hodographs within the cloud bearing layer should support some storm organization and the potential for some strong to locally severe storms. However, strong capping is forecast ahead of the front with thunderstorm potential mostly confined near the surface low. Destabilization should also be more limited farther north. Therefore, a narrow corridor of an uncapped warm sector with sufficient destabilization and shear for an isolated severe weather threat may exist, but is unclear if/where this may occur at this time. ...CO/KS... A few thunderstorms are possible along and north of a cold front across eastern Colorado and into western Kansas as a shortwave trough transits the central Rockies. Moisture/instability is expected to be limited which should keep any thunderstorm potential isolated. ..Bentley.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains will amplify as it moves into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move generally from the central Plains into the northern Great Lakes. A cold front will extend from this surface low south and then southwest to the central Plains. Ahead of this front, upper 50s to perhaps low 60s dewpoints are forecast which should be result in weak surface based instability Sunday afternoon. Guidance varies on the position of the surface low and destabilization ahead of the front. Long/straight hodographs within the cloud bearing layer should support some storm organization and the potential for some strong to locally severe storms. However, strong capping is forecast ahead of the front with thunderstorm potential mostly confined near the surface low. Destabilization should also be more limited farther north. Therefore, a narrow corridor of an uncapped warm sector with sufficient destabilization and shear for an isolated severe weather threat may exist, but is unclear if/where this may occur at this time. ...CO/KS... A few thunderstorms are possible along and north of a cold front across eastern Colorado and into western Kansas as a shortwave trough transits the central Rockies. Moisture/instability is expected to be limited which should keep any thunderstorm potential isolated. ..Bentley.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains will amplify as it moves into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move generally from the central Plains into the northern Great Lakes. A cold front will extend from this surface low south and then southwest to the central Plains. Ahead of this front, upper 50s to perhaps low 60s dewpoints are forecast which should be result in weak surface based instability Sunday afternoon. Guidance varies on the position of the surface low and destabilization ahead of the front. Long/straight hodographs within the cloud bearing layer should support some storm organization and the potential for some strong to locally severe storms. However, strong capping is forecast ahead of the front with thunderstorm potential mostly confined near the surface low. Destabilization should also be more limited farther north. Therefore, a narrow corridor of an uncapped warm sector with sufficient destabilization and shear for an isolated severe weather threat may exist, but is unclear if/where this may occur at this time. ...CO/KS... A few thunderstorms are possible along and north of a cold front across eastern Colorado and into western Kansas as a shortwave trough transits the central Rockies. Moisture/instability is expected to be limited which should keep any thunderstorm potential isolated. ..Bentley.. 04/11/2025 Read more