Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...Morning Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor modifications. The Elevated area was expanded across parts of central SD where post-frontal gusty winds of 15-20 mph and low RH are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Areas across western SD have received around 0.25-0.5 inches of rainfall over the last 24 hours, and have been trimmed from the risk area. Otherwise the outlook was unchanged, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS as upper ridging persists across the Interior West, supporting surface high pressure and deep-layer northwesterly flow to overspread the central Plains today. Given the presence of a dry boundary layer, efficient downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft is expected by afternoon peak heating given boundary-layer mixing. Widespread 15-20 mph northwesterly surface winds (perhaps reaching 25 mph locally) will coincide with 20 percent RH for several hours across parts of the central Plains, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights given at least modestly dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...Morning Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor modifications. The Elevated area was expanded across parts of central SD where post-frontal gusty winds of 15-20 mph and low RH are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Areas across western SD have received around 0.25-0.5 inches of rainfall over the last 24 hours, and have been trimmed from the risk area. Otherwise the outlook was unchanged, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS as upper ridging persists across the Interior West, supporting surface high pressure and deep-layer northwesterly flow to overspread the central Plains today. Given the presence of a dry boundary layer, efficient downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft is expected by afternoon peak heating given boundary-layer mixing. Widespread 15-20 mph northwesterly surface winds (perhaps reaching 25 mph locally) will coincide with 20 percent RH for several hours across parts of the central Plains, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights given at least modestly dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...Morning Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor modifications. The Elevated area was expanded across parts of central SD where post-frontal gusty winds of 15-20 mph and low RH are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Areas across western SD have received around 0.25-0.5 inches of rainfall over the last 24 hours, and have been trimmed from the risk area. Otherwise the outlook was unchanged, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS as upper ridging persists across the Interior West, supporting surface high pressure and deep-layer northwesterly flow to overspread the central Plains today. Given the presence of a dry boundary layer, efficient downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft is expected by afternoon peak heating given boundary-layer mixing. Widespread 15-20 mph northwesterly surface winds (perhaps reaching 25 mph locally) will coincide with 20 percent RH for several hours across parts of the central Plains, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights given at least modestly dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...Morning Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor modifications. The Elevated area was expanded across parts of central SD where post-frontal gusty winds of 15-20 mph and low RH are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Areas across western SD have received around 0.25-0.5 inches of rainfall over the last 24 hours, and have been trimmed from the risk area. Otherwise the outlook was unchanged, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS as upper ridging persists across the Interior West, supporting surface high pressure and deep-layer northwesterly flow to overspread the central Plains today. Given the presence of a dry boundary layer, efficient downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft is expected by afternoon peak heating given boundary-layer mixing. Widespread 15-20 mph northwesterly surface winds (perhaps reaching 25 mph locally) will coincide with 20 percent RH for several hours across parts of the central Plains, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights given at least modestly dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...Morning Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor modifications. The Elevated area was expanded across parts of central SD where post-frontal gusty winds of 15-20 mph and low RH are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Areas across western SD have received around 0.25-0.5 inches of rainfall over the last 24 hours, and have been trimmed from the risk area. Otherwise the outlook was unchanged, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS as upper ridging persists across the Interior West, supporting surface high pressure and deep-layer northwesterly flow to overspread the central Plains today. Given the presence of a dry boundary layer, efficient downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft is expected by afternoon peak heating given boundary-layer mixing. Widespread 15-20 mph northwesterly surface winds (perhaps reaching 25 mph locally) will coincide with 20 percent RH for several hours across parts of the central Plains, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights given at least modestly dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...Morning Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor modifications. The Elevated area was expanded across parts of central SD where post-frontal gusty winds of 15-20 mph and low RH are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Areas across western SD have received around 0.25-0.5 inches of rainfall over the last 24 hours, and have been trimmed from the risk area. Otherwise the outlook was unchanged, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS as upper ridging persists across the Interior West, supporting surface high pressure and deep-layer northwesterly flow to overspread the central Plains today. Given the presence of a dry boundary layer, efficient downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft is expected by afternoon peak heating given boundary-layer mixing. Widespread 15-20 mph northwesterly surface winds (perhaps reaching 25 mph locally) will coincide with 20 percent RH for several hours across parts of the central Plains, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights given at least modestly dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...Morning Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor modifications. The Elevated area was expanded across parts of central SD where post-frontal gusty winds of 15-20 mph and low RH are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Areas across western SD have received around 0.25-0.5 inches of rainfall over the last 24 hours, and have been trimmed from the risk area. Otherwise the outlook was unchanged, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS as upper ridging persists across the Interior West, supporting surface high pressure and deep-layer northwesterly flow to overspread the central Plains today. Given the presence of a dry boundary layer, efficient downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft is expected by afternoon peak heating given boundary-layer mixing. Widespread 15-20 mph northwesterly surface winds (perhaps reaching 25 mph locally) will coincide with 20 percent RH for several hours across parts of the central Plains, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights given at least modestly dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...Morning Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor modifications. The Elevated area was expanded across parts of central SD where post-frontal gusty winds of 15-20 mph and low RH are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Areas across western SD have received around 0.25-0.5 inches of rainfall over the last 24 hours, and have been trimmed from the risk area. Otherwise the outlook was unchanged, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS as upper ridging persists across the Interior West, supporting surface high pressure and deep-layer northwesterly flow to overspread the central Plains today. Given the presence of a dry boundary layer, efficient downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft is expected by afternoon peak heating given boundary-layer mixing. Widespread 15-20 mph northwesterly surface winds (perhaps reaching 25 mph locally) will coincide with 20 percent RH for several hours across parts of the central Plains, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights given at least modestly dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...Morning Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor modifications. The Elevated area was expanded across parts of central SD where post-frontal gusty winds of 15-20 mph and low RH are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Areas across western SD have received around 0.25-0.5 inches of rainfall over the last 24 hours, and have been trimmed from the risk area. Otherwise the outlook was unchanged, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS as upper ridging persists across the Interior West, supporting surface high pressure and deep-layer northwesterly flow to overspread the central Plains today. Given the presence of a dry boundary layer, efficient downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft is expected by afternoon peak heating given boundary-layer mixing. Widespread 15-20 mph northwesterly surface winds (perhaps reaching 25 mph locally) will coincide with 20 percent RH for several hours across parts of the central Plains, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights given at least modestly dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Guyer.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Guyer.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Guyer.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Guyer.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Guyer.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Guyer.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Guyer.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Guyer.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Guyer.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Guyer.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Guyer.. 04/10/2025 Read more