Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible through tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley and eastern FL. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20z Update... Only minor changes were made to the thunder areas across parts of NE and MT for the latest guidance and ongoing storms. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Multiple low-amplitude, mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast to develop east-southeastward today and tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and OH Valley. Rather meager/shallow low-level moisture will tend to limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity across these regions. Even so, sufficient large-scale ascent and weak MUCAPE may still support isolated convection capable of producing lightning through the period. Occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with high-based thunderstorms across parts of SD/NE this afternoon, but organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible through tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley and eastern FL. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20z Update... Only minor changes were made to the thunder areas across parts of NE and MT for the latest guidance and ongoing storms. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Multiple low-amplitude, mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast to develop east-southeastward today and tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and OH Valley. Rather meager/shallow low-level moisture will tend to limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity across these regions. Even so, sufficient large-scale ascent and weak MUCAPE may still support isolated convection capable of producing lightning through the period. Occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with high-based thunderstorms across parts of SD/NE this afternoon, but organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible through tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley and eastern FL. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20z Update... Only minor changes were made to the thunder areas across parts of NE and MT for the latest guidance and ongoing storms. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Multiple low-amplitude, mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast to develop east-southeastward today and tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and OH Valley. Rather meager/shallow low-level moisture will tend to limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity across these regions. Even so, sufficient large-scale ascent and weak MUCAPE may still support isolated convection capable of producing lightning through the period. Occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with high-based thunderstorms across parts of SD/NE this afternoon, but organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible through tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley and eastern FL. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20z Update... Only minor changes were made to the thunder areas across parts of NE and MT for the latest guidance and ongoing storms. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Multiple low-amplitude, mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast to develop east-southeastward today and tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and OH Valley. Rather meager/shallow low-level moisture will tend to limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity across these regions. Even so, sufficient large-scale ascent and weak MUCAPE may still support isolated convection capable of producing lightning through the period. Occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with high-based thunderstorms across parts of SD/NE this afternoon, but organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible through tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley and eastern FL. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20z Update... Only minor changes were made to the thunder areas across parts of NE and MT for the latest guidance and ongoing storms. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Multiple low-amplitude, mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast to develop east-southeastward today and tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and OH Valley. Rather meager/shallow low-level moisture will tend to limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity across these regions. Even so, sufficient large-scale ascent and weak MUCAPE may still support isolated convection capable of producing lightning through the period. Occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with high-based thunderstorms across parts of SD/NE this afternoon, but organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z Broad northwest flow within a dry post-frontal air mass is still expected to bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Central Plains for day 2/Thursday. Elevated highlights were expanded into the Nebraska Panhandle as well as portions of southern Kansas and far northern Oklahoma where fuels will be more receptive to wildfire spread after several days of warming and drying. Otherwise, previous forecast philosophy (see below) remains on track. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the eastern CONUS as an upper ridge continues to build over the Interior West tomorrow, supporting a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime across the central Plains, where a dry boundary layer will be in place. By afternoon peak heating, boundary-layer mixing will foster downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft to support dry and windy conditions for several hours tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH across portions of central Nebraska into Kansas. Given at least modestly dry fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z Broad northwest flow within a dry post-frontal air mass is still expected to bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Central Plains for day 2/Thursday. Elevated highlights were expanded into the Nebraska Panhandle as well as portions of southern Kansas and far northern Oklahoma where fuels will be more receptive to wildfire spread after several days of warming and drying. Otherwise, previous forecast philosophy (see below) remains on track. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the eastern CONUS as an upper ridge continues to build over the Interior West tomorrow, supporting a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime across the central Plains, where a dry boundary layer will be in place. By afternoon peak heating, boundary-layer mixing will foster downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft to support dry and windy conditions for several hours tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH across portions of central Nebraska into Kansas. Given at least modestly dry fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z Broad northwest flow within a dry post-frontal air mass is still expected to bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Central Plains for day 2/Thursday. Elevated highlights were expanded into the Nebraska Panhandle as well as portions of southern Kansas and far northern Oklahoma where fuels will be more receptive to wildfire spread after several days of warming and drying. Otherwise, previous forecast philosophy (see below) remains on track. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the eastern CONUS as an upper ridge continues to build over the Interior West tomorrow, supporting a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime across the central Plains, where a dry boundary layer will be in place. By afternoon peak heating, boundary-layer mixing will foster downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft to support dry and windy conditions for several hours tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH across portions of central Nebraska into Kansas. Given at least modestly dry fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z Broad northwest flow within a dry post-frontal air mass is still expected to bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Central Plains for day 2/Thursday. Elevated highlights were expanded into the Nebraska Panhandle as well as portions of southern Kansas and far northern Oklahoma where fuels will be more receptive to wildfire spread after several days of warming and drying. Otherwise, previous forecast philosophy (see below) remains on track. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the eastern CONUS as an upper ridge continues to build over the Interior West tomorrow, supporting a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime across the central Plains, where a dry boundary layer will be in place. By afternoon peak heating, boundary-layer mixing will foster downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft to support dry and windy conditions for several hours tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH across portions of central Nebraska into Kansas. Given at least modestly dry fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z Broad northwest flow within a dry post-frontal air mass is still expected to bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Central Plains for day 2/Thursday. Elevated highlights were expanded into the Nebraska Panhandle as well as portions of southern Kansas and far northern Oklahoma where fuels will be more receptive to wildfire spread after several days of warming and drying. Otherwise, previous forecast philosophy (see below) remains on track. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the eastern CONUS as an upper ridge continues to build over the Interior West tomorrow, supporting a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime across the central Plains, where a dry boundary layer will be in place. By afternoon peak heating, boundary-layer mixing will foster downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft to support dry and windy conditions for several hours tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH across portions of central Nebraska into Kansas. Given at least modestly dry fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z Broad northwest flow within a dry post-frontal air mass is still expected to bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Central Plains for day 2/Thursday. Elevated highlights were expanded into the Nebraska Panhandle as well as portions of southern Kansas and far northern Oklahoma where fuels will be more receptive to wildfire spread after several days of warming and drying. Otherwise, previous forecast philosophy (see below) remains on track. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the eastern CONUS as an upper ridge continues to build over the Interior West tomorrow, supporting a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime across the central Plains, where a dry boundary layer will be in place. By afternoon peak heating, boundary-layer mixing will foster downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft to support dry and windy conditions for several hours tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH across portions of central Nebraska into Kansas. Given at least modestly dry fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z Broad northwest flow within a dry post-frontal air mass is still expected to bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Central Plains for day 2/Thursday. Elevated highlights were expanded into the Nebraska Panhandle as well as portions of southern Kansas and far northern Oklahoma where fuels will be more receptive to wildfire spread after several days of warming and drying. Otherwise, previous forecast philosophy (see below) remains on track. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the eastern CONUS as an upper ridge continues to build over the Interior West tomorrow, supporting a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime across the central Plains, where a dry boundary layer will be in place. By afternoon peak heating, boundary-layer mixing will foster downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft to support dry and windy conditions for several hours tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH across portions of central Nebraska into Kansas. Given at least modestly dry fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.... ...SUMMARY... A couple strong to severe storms will be possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia on Friday. Primary concerns will be isolated severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the trough on Friday morning resulting in a deepening, negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough across the southern Appalachians. As a result, a surface low will deepen across the central Carolinas Friday morning. As this occurs, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints over the Gulf Stream will advect inland across eastern South Carolina and North Carolina and perhaps far as southeast Virginia. Cooling temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates will aid in destabilization Friday morning. If some surface heating can occur and allow for a zone of greater instability (1000+ J/kg MLCAPE) to develop, a slight risk may be needed. The most favorable zone at this time extends from northeast South Carolina into eastern North Carolina where cloudcover/stabilizing rainfall is less likely. There is still some uncertainty regarding the timing and location of the mid-level jet max and as a result, the location of the surface low. These differences are only 50 to 100 miles, but given how close the threat is to the coast, this could have a significant impact on inland destabilization and thus the potential for a corridor of greater severe risk. This, combined with cloudcover/ongoing convective concerns mentioned above, preclude higher probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.... ...SUMMARY... A couple strong to severe storms will be possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia on Friday. Primary concerns will be isolated severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the trough on Friday morning resulting in a deepening, negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough across the southern Appalachians. As a result, a surface low will deepen across the central Carolinas Friday morning. As this occurs, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints over the Gulf Stream will advect inland across eastern South Carolina and North Carolina and perhaps far as southeast Virginia. Cooling temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates will aid in destabilization Friday morning. If some surface heating can occur and allow for a zone of greater instability (1000+ J/kg MLCAPE) to develop, a slight risk may be needed. The most favorable zone at this time extends from northeast South Carolina into eastern North Carolina where cloudcover/stabilizing rainfall is less likely. There is still some uncertainty regarding the timing and location of the mid-level jet max and as a result, the location of the surface low. These differences are only 50 to 100 miles, but given how close the threat is to the coast, this could have a significant impact on inland destabilization and thus the potential for a corridor of greater severe risk. This, combined with cloudcover/ongoing convective concerns mentioned above, preclude higher probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.... ...SUMMARY... A couple strong to severe storms will be possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia on Friday. Primary concerns will be isolated severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the trough on Friday morning resulting in a deepening, negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough across the southern Appalachians. As a result, a surface low will deepen across the central Carolinas Friday morning. As this occurs, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints over the Gulf Stream will advect inland across eastern South Carolina and North Carolina and perhaps far as southeast Virginia. Cooling temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates will aid in destabilization Friday morning. If some surface heating can occur and allow for a zone of greater instability (1000+ J/kg MLCAPE) to develop, a slight risk may be needed. The most favorable zone at this time extends from northeast South Carolina into eastern North Carolina where cloudcover/stabilizing rainfall is less likely. There is still some uncertainty regarding the timing and location of the mid-level jet max and as a result, the location of the surface low. These differences are only 50 to 100 miles, but given how close the threat is to the coast, this could have a significant impact on inland destabilization and thus the potential for a corridor of greater severe risk. This, combined with cloudcover/ongoing convective concerns mentioned above, preclude higher probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.... ...SUMMARY... A couple strong to severe storms will be possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia on Friday. Primary concerns will be isolated severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the trough on Friday morning resulting in a deepening, negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough across the southern Appalachians. As a result, a surface low will deepen across the central Carolinas Friday morning. As this occurs, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints over the Gulf Stream will advect inland across eastern South Carolina and North Carolina and perhaps far as southeast Virginia. Cooling temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates will aid in destabilization Friday morning. If some surface heating can occur and allow for a zone of greater instability (1000+ J/kg MLCAPE) to develop, a slight risk may be needed. The most favorable zone at this time extends from northeast South Carolina into eastern North Carolina where cloudcover/stabilizing rainfall is less likely. There is still some uncertainty regarding the timing and location of the mid-level jet max and as a result, the location of the surface low. These differences are only 50 to 100 miles, but given how close the threat is to the coast, this could have a significant impact on inland destabilization and thus the potential for a corridor of greater severe risk. This, combined with cloudcover/ongoing convective concerns mentioned above, preclude higher probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.... ...SUMMARY... A couple strong to severe storms will be possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia on Friday. Primary concerns will be isolated severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the trough on Friday morning resulting in a deepening, negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough across the southern Appalachians. As a result, a surface low will deepen across the central Carolinas Friday morning. As this occurs, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints over the Gulf Stream will advect inland across eastern South Carolina and North Carolina and perhaps far as southeast Virginia. Cooling temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates will aid in destabilization Friday morning. If some surface heating can occur and allow for a zone of greater instability (1000+ J/kg MLCAPE) to develop, a slight risk may be needed. The most favorable zone at this time extends from northeast South Carolina into eastern North Carolina where cloudcover/stabilizing rainfall is less likely. There is still some uncertainty regarding the timing and location of the mid-level jet max and as a result, the location of the surface low. These differences are only 50 to 100 miles, but given how close the threat is to the coast, this could have a significant impact on inland destabilization and thus the potential for a corridor of greater severe risk. This, combined with cloudcover/ongoing convective concerns mentioned above, preclude higher probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.... ...SUMMARY... A couple strong to severe storms will be possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia on Friday. Primary concerns will be isolated severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the trough on Friday morning resulting in a deepening, negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough across the southern Appalachians. As a result, a surface low will deepen across the central Carolinas Friday morning. As this occurs, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints over the Gulf Stream will advect inland across eastern South Carolina and North Carolina and perhaps far as southeast Virginia. Cooling temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates will aid in destabilization Friday morning. If some surface heating can occur and allow for a zone of greater instability (1000+ J/kg MLCAPE) to develop, a slight risk may be needed. The most favorable zone at this time extends from northeast South Carolina into eastern North Carolina where cloudcover/stabilizing rainfall is less likely. There is still some uncertainty regarding the timing and location of the mid-level jet max and as a result, the location of the surface low. These differences are only 50 to 100 miles, but given how close the threat is to the coast, this could have a significant impact on inland destabilization and thus the potential for a corridor of greater severe risk. This, combined with cloudcover/ongoing convective concerns mentioned above, preclude higher probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.... ...SUMMARY... A couple strong to severe storms will be possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia on Friday. Primary concerns will be isolated severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the trough on Friday morning resulting in a deepening, negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough across the southern Appalachians. As a result, a surface low will deepen across the central Carolinas Friday morning. As this occurs, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints over the Gulf Stream will advect inland across eastern South Carolina and North Carolina and perhaps far as southeast Virginia. Cooling temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates will aid in destabilization Friday morning. If some surface heating can occur and allow for a zone of greater instability (1000+ J/kg MLCAPE) to develop, a slight risk may be needed. The most favorable zone at this time extends from northeast South Carolina into eastern North Carolina where cloudcover/stabilizing rainfall is less likely. There is still some uncertainty regarding the timing and location of the mid-level jet max and as a result, the location of the surface low. These differences are only 50 to 100 miles, but given how close the threat is to the coast, this could have a significant impact on inland destabilization and thus the potential for a corridor of greater severe risk. This, combined with cloudcover/ongoing convective concerns mentioned above, preclude higher probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NORTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts will be possible across portions of the Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, an elongated, strong mid-level jet streak across the central Plains will help amplify the trough across the eastern CONUS. Very cold mid-level temperatures (-25 to -26C at 500mb) will overspread the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints will stream northeastward along/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. ...Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley... Ahead of a southward moving surface front, low-level moistening and substantial diurnal heating will result in moderate instability (1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE) from Arkansas into Tennessee, with weaker destabilization farther northeast into the Lower Ohio River Valley. A broad region of ascent will develop across the warm sector by early Thursday afternoon within the left exit region of the upper-level jet streak. This should result in scattered thunderstorms from Arkansas/Missouri to Indiana, eastern Kentucky and perhaps southern Ohio. The best overlap between the greatest instability and shear will be from eastern Arkansas eastward to northern Georgia where the slight risk is present. Long/straight hodographs will initially support splitting supercells with a threat for large hail. In addition, these supercells will have some wind threat given the steep lapse rates and well-mixed boundary layer. This thermodynamic profile will support eventual upscale growth into one or more line segments with a primary damaging wind threat expected by late afternoon and into the evening. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2025 Read more