Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID/DEEP SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts will be possible across portions of the Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A positively tiled large-scale trough will advance southeastward from the Upper MS Valley/Midwest to the OH/TN Valleys through the period. Within the base of the trough, a 70-80-kt west-northwesterly midlevel jet will overspread the Mid/Deep South and TN Valley. In response, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints will stream northeastward along/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. ...Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley... Along/ahead of the front, ample diurnal heating of the partially modified Gulf moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (upwards of 8 C/km) will contribute to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. As ascent in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet impinges on the destabilizing air mass along/ahead of the front, a band of scattered thunderstorms will develop across the Mid-South during the afternoon. 50-60 kt of effective shear (characterized by a long/straight hodograph) oriented perpendicular to the front will favor discrete/semi-discrete supercells initially. The primary concern with these storms will be large hail to around 1.5-1.75 inches. As storms track/develop southeastward amid steep boundary-layer lapse rates, strengthening/expanding cold pools and a more boundary-parallel component of the midlevel flow will promote upscale growth into clusters and eventually a broken line into the evening hours. As a result, damaging wind gusts will become an increasing concern, before low-level static stability increases (owing to nocturnal cooling) with southeastward extent. ..Weinman.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID/DEEP SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts will be possible across portions of the Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A positively tiled large-scale trough will advance southeastward from the Upper MS Valley/Midwest to the OH/TN Valleys through the period. Within the base of the trough, a 70-80-kt west-northwesterly midlevel jet will overspread the Mid/Deep South and TN Valley. In response, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints will stream northeastward along/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. ...Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley... Along/ahead of the front, ample diurnal heating of the partially modified Gulf moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (upwards of 8 C/km) will contribute to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. As ascent in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet impinges on the destabilizing air mass along/ahead of the front, a band of scattered thunderstorms will develop across the Mid-South during the afternoon. 50-60 kt of effective shear (characterized by a long/straight hodograph) oriented perpendicular to the front will favor discrete/semi-discrete supercells initially. The primary concern with these storms will be large hail to around 1.5-1.75 inches. As storms track/develop southeastward amid steep boundary-layer lapse rates, strengthening/expanding cold pools and a more boundary-parallel component of the midlevel flow will promote upscale growth into clusters and eventually a broken line into the evening hours. As a result, damaging wind gusts will become an increasing concern, before low-level static stability increases (owing to nocturnal cooling) with southeastward extent. ..Weinman.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest, the Upper Midwest, and the northern High Plains, though severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough in the northern Plains early this morning will move southeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley and undergo modest amplification. A weak surface low will move swiftly southeastward along with the trough. A warm front will be positioned within parts of the Upper Midwest with a cold front southwestward from the low into the central/southern Plains. With the recent intrusion of cooler air into much of the Gulf, moisture availability will be quite limited -- which is also quite evident in this evenings observed soundings in the Southeast. Even so, some thunderstorm activity will be possible as warm-air advection into the warm front promotes lift. To the northwest of the surface low, steep low/mid-level lapse rates may allow for isolated to widely scattered storms in parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys... Showers and thunderstorms are possible early this morning driven by the amplifying shortwave trough and low-level warm advection. Mid/upper-level clouds are already moving into the region late on Tuesday and forecast soundings suggest some cloud cover will persist into the afternoon as well. With a generally dry boundary layer and weak destabilization, most activity in Illinois into the Ohio Valley region will likely be elevated. severe potential appears quite limited, but small hail could occur with the strongest storms. Closer to the surface low/cold front in northeastern Missouri and far west-central Illinois, it is possible that greater destabilization could occur. Models show some signal for a narrow zone of greater moisture return ahead of the front and these areas will be on the eastern periphery of a steep mid-level lapse rate plume. Current surface observations still suggest the moisture return depicted in models may be too aggressive. If upper 40s F dewpoints can reach farther north than expected, there would be some potential for a surface based storm. The upper-bound severe potential would likely be marginally severe hail. Uncertainty is too high and coverage is too low for unconditional severe probabilities. ...Lower Missouri Valley Vicinity... Despite dewpoints around the mid 30s F, very cold temperatures aloft (-20 to -24 C at 500 mb) will support isolated to widely scattered convection during the afternoon. Buoyancy is expected to be quite weak, but large boundary layer dewpoint depressions could promote some stronger wind gusts. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest, the Upper Midwest, and the northern High Plains, though severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough in the northern Plains early this morning will move southeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley and undergo modest amplification. A weak surface low will move swiftly southeastward along with the trough. A warm front will be positioned within parts of the Upper Midwest with a cold front southwestward from the low into the central/southern Plains. With the recent intrusion of cooler air into much of the Gulf, moisture availability will be quite limited -- which is also quite evident in this evenings observed soundings in the Southeast. Even so, some thunderstorm activity will be possible as warm-air advection into the warm front promotes lift. To the northwest of the surface low, steep low/mid-level lapse rates may allow for isolated to widely scattered storms in parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys... Showers and thunderstorms are possible early this morning driven by the amplifying shortwave trough and low-level warm advection. Mid/upper-level clouds are already moving into the region late on Tuesday and forecast soundings suggest some cloud cover will persist into the afternoon as well. With a generally dry boundary layer and weak destabilization, most activity in Illinois into the Ohio Valley region will likely be elevated. severe potential appears quite limited, but small hail could occur with the strongest storms. Closer to the surface low/cold front in northeastern Missouri and far west-central Illinois, it is possible that greater destabilization could occur. Models show some signal for a narrow zone of greater moisture return ahead of the front and these areas will be on the eastern periphery of a steep mid-level lapse rate plume. Current surface observations still suggest the moisture return depicted in models may be too aggressive. If upper 40s F dewpoints can reach farther north than expected, there would be some potential for a surface based storm. The upper-bound severe potential would likely be marginally severe hail. Uncertainty is too high and coverage is too low for unconditional severe probabilities. ...Lower Missouri Valley Vicinity... Despite dewpoints around the mid 30s F, very cold temperatures aloft (-20 to -24 C at 500 mb) will support isolated to widely scattered convection during the afternoon. Buoyancy is expected to be quite weak, but large boundary layer dewpoint depressions could promote some stronger wind gusts. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest, the Upper Midwest, and the northern High Plains, though severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough in the northern Plains early this morning will move southeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley and undergo modest amplification. A weak surface low will move swiftly southeastward along with the trough. A warm front will be positioned within parts of the Upper Midwest with a cold front southwestward from the low into the central/southern Plains. With the recent intrusion of cooler air into much of the Gulf, moisture availability will be quite limited -- which is also quite evident in this evenings observed soundings in the Southeast. Even so, some thunderstorm activity will be possible as warm-air advection into the warm front promotes lift. To the northwest of the surface low, steep low/mid-level lapse rates may allow for isolated to widely scattered storms in parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys... Showers and thunderstorms are possible early this morning driven by the amplifying shortwave trough and low-level warm advection. Mid/upper-level clouds are already moving into the region late on Tuesday and forecast soundings suggest some cloud cover will persist into the afternoon as well. With a generally dry boundary layer and weak destabilization, most activity in Illinois into the Ohio Valley region will likely be elevated. severe potential appears quite limited, but small hail could occur with the strongest storms. Closer to the surface low/cold front in northeastern Missouri and far west-central Illinois, it is possible that greater destabilization could occur. Models show some signal for a narrow zone of greater moisture return ahead of the front and these areas will be on the eastern periphery of a steep mid-level lapse rate plume. Current surface observations still suggest the moisture return depicted in models may be too aggressive. If upper 40s F dewpoints can reach farther north than expected, there would be some potential for a surface based storm. The upper-bound severe potential would likely be marginally severe hail. Uncertainty is too high and coverage is too low for unconditional severe probabilities. ...Lower Missouri Valley Vicinity... Despite dewpoints around the mid 30s F, very cold temperatures aloft (-20 to -24 C at 500 mb) will support isolated to widely scattered convection during the afternoon. Buoyancy is expected to be quite weak, but large boundary layer dewpoint depressions could promote some stronger wind gusts. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest, the Upper Midwest, and the northern High Plains, though severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough in the northern Plains early this morning will move southeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley and undergo modest amplification. A weak surface low will move swiftly southeastward along with the trough. A warm front will be positioned within parts of the Upper Midwest with a cold front southwestward from the low into the central/southern Plains. With the recent intrusion of cooler air into much of the Gulf, moisture availability will be quite limited -- which is also quite evident in this evenings observed soundings in the Southeast. Even so, some thunderstorm activity will be possible as warm-air advection into the warm front promotes lift. To the northwest of the surface low, steep low/mid-level lapse rates may allow for isolated to widely scattered storms in parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys... Showers and thunderstorms are possible early this morning driven by the amplifying shortwave trough and low-level warm advection. Mid/upper-level clouds are already moving into the region late on Tuesday and forecast soundings suggest some cloud cover will persist into the afternoon as well. With a generally dry boundary layer and weak destabilization, most activity in Illinois into the Ohio Valley region will likely be elevated. severe potential appears quite limited, but small hail could occur with the strongest storms. Closer to the surface low/cold front in northeastern Missouri and far west-central Illinois, it is possible that greater destabilization could occur. Models show some signal for a narrow zone of greater moisture return ahead of the front and these areas will be on the eastern periphery of a steep mid-level lapse rate plume. Current surface observations still suggest the moisture return depicted in models may be too aggressive. If upper 40s F dewpoints can reach farther north than expected, there would be some potential for a surface based storm. The upper-bound severe potential would likely be marginally severe hail. Uncertainty is too high and coverage is too low for unconditional severe probabilities. ...Lower Missouri Valley Vicinity... Despite dewpoints around the mid 30s F, very cold temperatures aloft (-20 to -24 C at 500 mb) will support isolated to widely scattered convection during the afternoon. Buoyancy is expected to be quite weak, but large boundary layer dewpoint depressions could promote some stronger wind gusts. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest, the Upper Midwest, and the northern High Plains, though severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough in the northern Plains early this morning will move southeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley and undergo modest amplification. A weak surface low will move swiftly southeastward along with the trough. A warm front will be positioned within parts of the Upper Midwest with a cold front southwestward from the low into the central/southern Plains. With the recent intrusion of cooler air into much of the Gulf, moisture availability will be quite limited -- which is also quite evident in this evenings observed soundings in the Southeast. Even so, some thunderstorm activity will be possible as warm-air advection into the warm front promotes lift. To the northwest of the surface low, steep low/mid-level lapse rates may allow for isolated to widely scattered storms in parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys... Showers and thunderstorms are possible early this morning driven by the amplifying shortwave trough and low-level warm advection. Mid/upper-level clouds are already moving into the region late on Tuesday and forecast soundings suggest some cloud cover will persist into the afternoon as well. With a generally dry boundary layer and weak destabilization, most activity in Illinois into the Ohio Valley region will likely be elevated. severe potential appears quite limited, but small hail could occur with the strongest storms. Closer to the surface low/cold front in northeastern Missouri and far west-central Illinois, it is possible that greater destabilization could occur. Models show some signal for a narrow zone of greater moisture return ahead of the front and these areas will be on the eastern periphery of a steep mid-level lapse rate plume. Current surface observations still suggest the moisture return depicted in models may be too aggressive. If upper 40s F dewpoints can reach farther north than expected, there would be some potential for a surface based storm. The upper-bound severe potential would likely be marginally severe hail. Uncertainty is too high and coverage is too low for unconditional severe probabilities. ...Lower Missouri Valley Vicinity... Despite dewpoints around the mid 30s F, very cold temperatures aloft (-20 to -24 C at 500 mb) will support isolated to widely scattered convection during the afternoon. Buoyancy is expected to be quite weak, but large boundary layer dewpoint depressions could promote some stronger wind gusts. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest, the Upper Midwest, and the northern High Plains, though severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough in the northern Plains early this morning will move southeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley and undergo modest amplification. A weak surface low will move swiftly southeastward along with the trough. A warm front will be positioned within parts of the Upper Midwest with a cold front southwestward from the low into the central/southern Plains. With the recent intrusion of cooler air into much of the Gulf, moisture availability will be quite limited -- which is also quite evident in this evenings observed soundings in the Southeast. Even so, some thunderstorm activity will be possible as warm-air advection into the warm front promotes lift. To the northwest of the surface low, steep low/mid-level lapse rates may allow for isolated to widely scattered storms in parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys... Showers and thunderstorms are possible early this morning driven by the amplifying shortwave trough and low-level warm advection. Mid/upper-level clouds are already moving into the region late on Tuesday and forecast soundings suggest some cloud cover will persist into the afternoon as well. With a generally dry boundary layer and weak destabilization, most activity in Illinois into the Ohio Valley region will likely be elevated. severe potential appears quite limited, but small hail could occur with the strongest storms. Closer to the surface low/cold front in northeastern Missouri and far west-central Illinois, it is possible that greater destabilization could occur. Models show some signal for a narrow zone of greater moisture return ahead of the front and these areas will be on the eastern periphery of a steep mid-level lapse rate plume. Current surface observations still suggest the moisture return depicted in models may be too aggressive. If upper 40s F dewpoints can reach farther north than expected, there would be some potential for a surface based storm. The upper-bound severe potential would likely be marginally severe hail. Uncertainty is too high and coverage is too low for unconditional severe probabilities. ...Lower Missouri Valley Vicinity... Despite dewpoints around the mid 30s F, very cold temperatures aloft (-20 to -24 C at 500 mb) will support isolated to widely scattered convection during the afternoon. Buoyancy is expected to be quite weak, but large boundary layer dewpoint depressions could promote some stronger wind gusts. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest, the Upper Midwest, and the northern High Plains, though severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough in the northern Plains early this morning will move southeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley and undergo modest amplification. A weak surface low will move swiftly southeastward along with the trough. A warm front will be positioned within parts of the Upper Midwest with a cold front southwestward from the low into the central/southern Plains. With the recent intrusion of cooler air into much of the Gulf, moisture availability will be quite limited -- which is also quite evident in this evenings observed soundings in the Southeast. Even so, some thunderstorm activity will be possible as warm-air advection into the warm front promotes lift. To the northwest of the surface low, steep low/mid-level lapse rates may allow for isolated to widely scattered storms in parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys... Showers and thunderstorms are possible early this morning driven by the amplifying shortwave trough and low-level warm advection. Mid/upper-level clouds are already moving into the region late on Tuesday and forecast soundings suggest some cloud cover will persist into the afternoon as well. With a generally dry boundary layer and weak destabilization, most activity in Illinois into the Ohio Valley region will likely be elevated. severe potential appears quite limited, but small hail could occur with the strongest storms. Closer to the surface low/cold front in northeastern Missouri and far west-central Illinois, it is possible that greater destabilization could occur. Models show some signal for a narrow zone of greater moisture return ahead of the front and these areas will be on the eastern periphery of a steep mid-level lapse rate plume. Current surface observations still suggest the moisture return depicted in models may be too aggressive. If upper 40s F dewpoints can reach farther north than expected, there would be some potential for a surface based storm. The upper-bound severe potential would likely be marginally severe hail. Uncertainty is too high and coverage is too low for unconditional severe probabilities. ...Lower Missouri Valley Vicinity... Despite dewpoints around the mid 30s F, very cold temperatures aloft (-20 to -24 C at 500 mb) will support isolated to widely scattered convection during the afternoon. Buoyancy is expected to be quite weak, but large boundary layer dewpoint depressions could promote some stronger wind gusts. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the eastern CONUS as an upper ridge continues to build over the Interior West tomorrow, supporting a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime across the central Plains, where a dry boundary layer will be in place. By afternoon peak heating, boundary-layer mixing will foster downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft to support dry and windy conditions for several hours tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH across portions of central Nebraska into Kansas. Given at least modestly dry fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 04/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the eastern CONUS as an upper ridge continues to build over the Interior West tomorrow, supporting a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime across the central Plains, where a dry boundary layer will be in place. By afternoon peak heating, boundary-layer mixing will foster downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft to support dry and windy conditions for several hours tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH across portions of central Nebraska into Kansas. Given at least modestly dry fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 04/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the eastern CONUS as an upper ridge continues to build over the Interior West tomorrow, supporting a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime across the central Plains, where a dry boundary layer will be in place. By afternoon peak heating, boundary-layer mixing will foster downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft to support dry and windy conditions for several hours tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH across portions of central Nebraska into Kansas. Given at least modestly dry fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 04/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the eastern CONUS as an upper ridge continues to build over the Interior West tomorrow, supporting a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime across the central Plains, where a dry boundary layer will be in place. By afternoon peak heating, boundary-layer mixing will foster downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft to support dry and windy conditions for several hours tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH across portions of central Nebraska into Kansas. Given at least modestly dry fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 04/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the eastern CONUS as an upper ridge continues to build over the Interior West tomorrow, supporting a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime across the central Plains, where a dry boundary layer will be in place. By afternoon peak heating, boundary-layer mixing will foster downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft to support dry and windy conditions for several hours tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH across portions of central Nebraska into Kansas. Given at least modestly dry fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 04/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the eastern CONUS as an upper ridge continues to build over the Interior West tomorrow, supporting a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime across the central Plains, where a dry boundary layer will be in place. By afternoon peak heating, boundary-layer mixing will foster downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft to support dry and windy conditions for several hours tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH across portions of central Nebraska into Kansas. Given at least modestly dry fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 04/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will begin to amplify over the Ohio Valley as upper ridging builds in over the Interior West today. By afternoon, an 80+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread a dry boundary layer over the central/northern Plains. Downward momentum transport within this dry boundary layer will support 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH. Given dry fuels across the central/northern Plains, Elevated highlights have been introduced where guidance consensus depicts the aforementioned dry/windy conditions persisting for several hours. Guidance consensus also depicts 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH across portions of the central High Plains, where Critical highlights are in place. Additionally, by afternoon, buoyancy (albeit scant) may support isolated, fast-moving/high-based thunderstorms over the same portions of the central Plains that will experience dry/windy surface conditions atop dry fuels. However, thunderstorms should be sparse at best over most areas, and it is unclear where a locally higher density of lightning flashes may occur, hence no isolated dry thunderstorms highlights introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 04/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will begin to amplify over the Ohio Valley as upper ridging builds in over the Interior West today. By afternoon, an 80+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread a dry boundary layer over the central/northern Plains. Downward momentum transport within this dry boundary layer will support 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH. Given dry fuels across the central/northern Plains, Elevated highlights have been introduced where guidance consensus depicts the aforementioned dry/windy conditions persisting for several hours. Guidance consensus also depicts 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH across portions of the central High Plains, where Critical highlights are in place. Additionally, by afternoon, buoyancy (albeit scant) may support isolated, fast-moving/high-based thunderstorms over the same portions of the central Plains that will experience dry/windy surface conditions atop dry fuels. However, thunderstorms should be sparse at best over most areas, and it is unclear where a locally higher density of lightning flashes may occur, hence no isolated dry thunderstorms highlights introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 04/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will begin to amplify over the Ohio Valley as upper ridging builds in over the Interior West today. By afternoon, an 80+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread a dry boundary layer over the central/northern Plains. Downward momentum transport within this dry boundary layer will support 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH. Given dry fuels across the central/northern Plains, Elevated highlights have been introduced where guidance consensus depicts the aforementioned dry/windy conditions persisting for several hours. Guidance consensus also depicts 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH across portions of the central High Plains, where Critical highlights are in place. Additionally, by afternoon, buoyancy (albeit scant) may support isolated, fast-moving/high-based thunderstorms over the same portions of the central Plains that will experience dry/windy surface conditions atop dry fuels. However, thunderstorms should be sparse at best over most areas, and it is unclear where a locally higher density of lightning flashes may occur, hence no isolated dry thunderstorms highlights introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 04/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will begin to amplify over the Ohio Valley as upper ridging builds in over the Interior West today. By afternoon, an 80+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread a dry boundary layer over the central/northern Plains. Downward momentum transport within this dry boundary layer will support 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH. Given dry fuels across the central/northern Plains, Elevated highlights have been introduced where guidance consensus depicts the aforementioned dry/windy conditions persisting for several hours. Guidance consensus also depicts 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH across portions of the central High Plains, where Critical highlights are in place. Additionally, by afternoon, buoyancy (albeit scant) may support isolated, fast-moving/high-based thunderstorms over the same portions of the central Plains that will experience dry/windy surface conditions atop dry fuels. However, thunderstorms should be sparse at best over most areas, and it is unclear where a locally higher density of lightning flashes may occur, hence no isolated dry thunderstorms highlights introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 04/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will begin to amplify over the Ohio Valley as upper ridging builds in over the Interior West today. By afternoon, an 80+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread a dry boundary layer over the central/northern Plains. Downward momentum transport within this dry boundary layer will support 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH. Given dry fuels across the central/northern Plains, Elevated highlights have been introduced where guidance consensus depicts the aforementioned dry/windy conditions persisting for several hours. Guidance consensus also depicts 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH across portions of the central High Plains, where Critical highlights are in place. Additionally, by afternoon, buoyancy (albeit scant) may support isolated, fast-moving/high-based thunderstorms over the same portions of the central Plains that will experience dry/windy surface conditions atop dry fuels. However, thunderstorms should be sparse at best over most areas, and it is unclear where a locally higher density of lightning flashes may occur, hence no isolated dry thunderstorms highlights introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 04/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more